How is October already over? It was just June.
Some of you have already participated in returning to Standard Time. Most of the United States returns to it this weekend as the calendar flips to November. An hour returns, but the races are dwindling and the cupboard is running out silverware. A few more pieces could be gone before this weekend is over. These are the days we must cherish the most, because soon races will be seldom as daylight lessen and the temperatures continue to drop.
What NASCAR's Playoff Change Has Gotten Correct
We are about to enter the penultimate weekend of the NASCAR season, and a week ago, a blanket covered the top seven in the Cup Series championship. Now, there is a chance the title will be secured with a race to spare for the first time since 2003, the most recent season decided based on a full season points aggregate.
Championship format aside, the one thing that has stood out this season and should be appreciated is the increase in points for a victory.
With an elimination of playoff rounds and the playoffs returning to a ten-race aggregate without eliminations, NASCAR increased the points for winning a race while keeping the rest of the points distribution the same.
Prior to any stage points being awarded, a race victory earns a driver 55 points while second earns 35 points, decreasing by a point for equal subsequent position. For a long time I have argued the issue with NASCAR's point system was not how much the winner received but how much second on down received. Second received too large of a proportion of a race victory, and if NASCAR wanted winning races to matter more, second place should receive a smaller proportion of the winner’s point total. This change fixed it.
On the base level, second place equalled 63.636% of a race victory. That is a smaller share than second-to-first in Formula One (72%) and IndyCar (80%). Throw in stage points, and it is possible that a race winner could earn more than double the rest of the field. A race victory could pay as much as 76 points. That could be as much as 41 points more than the rest of the field. Second place could leave with 46.05% of a race victory.
That is phenomenal!
If you want winning to matter and carry weight, it should be significantly more than second and the rest of the finishing positions.
This is what allowed the championship swings we saw during the season. Tyler Reddick was running away through the first quarter of the season, but when Reddick stumbled, Denny Hamlin shot to the top because he was winning and scoring piles of points on the competition.
In the playoffs, Kyle Larson has positioned himself to win the championship because he has won three of the eight races run so far, and he has seven finishes inside the top six.
If there is anything that should be tweaked further it is the points reset after the regular season. The reset totals were set based on the past points system when winning was not worth as much. I don't know if 25 points between the top championship driver after 26 races and second with five-point increments down to 16th is enough.
It remains the flaw of a playoff system. This is still a ten-race aggregate to determine the championship, but Denny Hamlin had a 89-point lead over Ryan Blaney in second decreased to 25 points. Blaney made up nearly 75% of his deficit. Hamlin was 303 points ahead of Larson after the regular season. Simply by making the playoffs, Larson's deficit was decreased to 55 points. Making the playoffs was a 248-point bonus to Larson, 81.848% of his deficit was erased.
What is fair alternative?
Could the deficits just be halved at the end of the regular season and rounded up if it falls on an odd-number? Everyone would be closer, but it would still be proportional. Everyone is gaining back half, but not all of it. The regular season champion would still have a decent cushion in this case with Hamlin. In that case, we would have seen the following...
1. Denny Hamlin: 2,100
2. Ryan Blaney: 2,055 (-45)
3. Tyler Reddick: 2,033 (-67)
4. Ty Gibbs: 2,032 (-68)
5. Chase Briscoe: 1,976 (-133)
6. Christopher Bell: 1,965 (-135)
7. Kyle Larson: 1,948 (-152)
8. Chase Elliott: 1,948 (-152)
9. Joey Logano: 1,941 (-159)
10. Chris Buescher: 1,925 (-175)
11. Daniel Suárez: 1,924 (-176)
12. Carson Hocevar: 1,923 (-177)
13. William Byron: 1,919 (-181)
14. Bubba Wallace: 1,912 (-188)
15. Austin Cindric: 1,902 (-198)
16. Ryan Preece: 1,897 (-203)
How would the standings look after the last eight races if this was the initial reset?
1. Hamlin: 2,368
2. Larson: -24
3. Blaney: -54
4. Reddick: -85
5. Briscoe: -85
6. Bell: -86
7. Logano: -121
8. Gibbs: -138
9. Cindric: -213
10. Hocevar: -222
11. Elliott: -237
12. Byron: -237
13. Wallace: -243
14: Suárez: -268
15. Preece -279
16. Buescher: -287
Hamlin would still have control but Larson would be keeping Hamlin honest. That regular season would still be carrying Hamlin as he has only two top five finishes in the lat eight races and he has to won since that three-race winning streak concluded at Pocono.
We would actually have more drivers still mathematically alive for the championship with eight to the current total of seven. There would be a legitimate chance of the championship lead changing hands after Martinsville.
It is something to be considered, but NASCAR's championship format issues stem from constant tinkering. It is done one way, a loose thread is pulled and then it is changed. Then after two or three years of trying something slightly different, another thread is pulled and another change occurs.
NASCAR could make the change above and have the deficits halved after the regular season, and then we will have a season where the top driver from the regular season wins four of the first five postseason races, scores on average 72 points per victory, and gains on average 32 points on the rest of the field, and we could be seeing a title clinched with three races remaining. Then how will people feel?
This year has been good. Every playoff race had tense battles and drivers going for the victory. As much as some feared drivers would be points racing, winning is worth too much to settle for such a practice. Even if there still feels like a flaw and a 26-race portion of the calendar not carrying enough weight, this season feels like a massive step forward from recent seasons. The champion is going to be someone who finished at the front regularly, not someone who had an average finish worse than 17th but had timely victories.
November Preview
Many championships are coming down to the wire, but MotoGP deserves attention because there are possibly four races left, if not only three races left. The championship lead just changed hands and there wasn't even a grand prix run.
Marc Márquez took the championship lead with his sprint victory at Phillip Island while Jorge Martín's accident dropped him to second, ten points off the top spot, and Martín was declared unfit for the grand prix due to an arm injury.
The grand prix didn't happen and that saved Martín up to 25 points in the championship. A Márquez victory on Sunday would have put Martín behind the eight-ball. Instead, Martín remains firmly in the fight.
One hundred and 48 points remain on the table. Mathematically, seven riders are alive for the championship.
Marco Bezzecchi is 50 points back. Pedro Acosta is 102 points back with Ai Ogura 106 points behind, Fabio Di Giannantonio is 113 points off the top spot, and Raúl Fernández remaining alive at 129 points off the championship lead.
It feels even and with only ten points separating the top two, it could not be much more balanced with four races remaining. Bezzecchi feels like a threat even though he is 50 points back.
Sepang is this weekend, and the Qatar round scheduled for November 8 appears to be going ahead despite the Middle East conflict and riders expressing security concerns. Portimão and Valencia close out the season on November 22 and November 29 respectively.
Removing Qatar is a 37-point swing in the championship battle. Remove that round entirely and Di Giannantonio and Fernández are eliminated from the championship regardless of what they do at Sepang this weekend. I don't think any rider can count on those points until the Qatar round has happened. Whether it does or it doesn't, this championship is likely going to the wire and it is just a matter of how tight will the battle be and how many riders will be in the fight?
Other events of note in November
FIA World Endurance Championship concludes from Monza.
Super GT finishes up at Fuji.
Super Formula season rounds up at Suzuka.
The "Asian" Le Mans Series is about to begin at Circuit Paul Ricard!
Formula One has a few races, Mexico, Brazil and Las Vegas.
