I am sure there is still confetti blowing around the swamps near Homestead-Miami Speedway, as it was only a few days ago the NASCAR season concluded with three championship celebrations. The 2026 season saw a return to the "Chase" format with a multiple race aggregate deciding the champions at the end of the season rather than a multi-round, elimination-format with a "winner-take-all" finale. This change brought a different tone to the season, as to be champion a driver at least had to be on top form for a nine or ten-race stretch instead of strategically winning races.
It felt like there was less luck involved this year and the focus was more on skill. With increased points for winning races, winning races still mattered. "Points racing" was not going to be enough if the same rivals kept winning. This felt different from what the past decade had been, but it was a refreshing change to something a little more natural.
With the brief summary behind us, we did make predictions ahead of this season, ahead of knowing what the official championship format would be. How did those turn out?
1. Kyle Larson's average finish in each third of the season will be 15.5 or better
Wrong!
This might be hard to believe, but Larson's average finish was worse than 15.5 over in two-thirds of the season. Larson's average finish over the first 12 races was 17.25. He had four finishes outside the top 30 in the first third of the season. However, his second third of the season saw him have an average finish of 17.0883. His final third saved his season and Larson had an average finish of 9.0833.
Larson was on his way to a rather disappointing season before the final third of the season, and he was still ranked eighth in the championship through the first 24 races. He had no victories, he had eight finishes outside the top 30 through the first 24 races and he didn't look close to being champion, and then he ended on a blitz to successfully defend his championship.
2. A Team Penske driver will not have a race victory following a finish outside the top twenty
Wrong!
This one was looking good into the final day of the season. Entering Homestead, Team Penske had won six races in 2026, a respectable haul. Ryan Blaney put Team Penske on the scoreboard with a victory in the fourth race of the season at Phoenix. The race prior to that, Blaney had finished eighth at Austin. Blaney would not win again until Atlanta in July, but that was after a seventh at Chicagoland. Blaney's third victory came at Loudon, a week after finishing 13th at Richmond.
Joey Logano had a rough first-half of his season. Logano was 20th in the championship after 18 races, but his form improved over summer. Logano won at North Wilkesboro, a week after Blaney won at Atlanta, and Logano was ninth in that race. Logano made it two quick victories as he won four races later at Richmond, and that was after a 14th at Iowa. This lifted Logano to ninth in the championship from 20th in six races. Logano's third victory was at Bristol in September after finishing third at Gateway.
This is all great. So what happened on the final day of the season?
Ryan Blaney passed Tyler Reddick for the victory while taking the white flag, and Blaney won the finale one week after finishing 35th at Martinsville after being caught in an accident.
DAMN! This was a little more than a lap away from being correct. If Noah Gragson didn't spin out Daniel Suárez, this prediction is correct. William Byron would have held onto win. If the final sprint to the finish was a lap shorter and only seven laps instead of eight laps, maybe Reddick holds on. This one hurts and we are early in the process of revisiting these predictions. It shouldn't hurt this soon.
3. Chase Briscoe will have the third-most top five finishes at Joe Gibbs Racing
Correct!
Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin finished with the same number of top five finishes. Both drivers had 16 top five finishes. Briscoe had a respectable season and technically was tied for third-most top five finishes at Joe Gibbs Racing, as Briscoe had 13 top five finishes as did Ty Gibbs. Tied for third is still third, and if we were to use a tiebreaker, Briscoe had three victories while Gibbs had two, so advantage Briscoe.
By the way, credit to Joe Gibbs Racing for having all four of its drivers scoring at least 13 top five finishes. Hendrick Motorsports didn't have that. Alex Bowman had a tough season as he battled health issues, but William Byron was non-existent for the first 34 races this season. Chase Elliott didn't even crack ten top five finishes. Joey Logano may have won three times, but he had seven top five finishes all season and Austin Cindric only had four.
Looking at all the numbers, it is hard to believe Gibbs didn't pull off a championship this season.
4. Chase Elliott will have at least five finishes outside the top twenty in the first 24 races
Correct!
Unlike 2025 where it took 24 races for Elliott's first finish outside the top twenty, it only took four races for Elliott to finish so low, as he was 23rd at Phoenix. The next result outside the top twenty was four races later, a 22nd at Bristol. Four races later, Elliott was 24th at Watkins Glen. Notice a pattern?
Well, the pattern didn't hold, and Elliott was 37th in the next race, the Coca-Cola 600 after being caught in an accident. This prediction was achieved in 15 races, as Elliott had another accident at Michigan leaving him 32nd. Elliott had one more finish outside the top twenty in the first two-thirds of the season, a 37th at Indianapolis.
Overall, Elliott had 12 finishes outside the top twenty in 2026, a threefold increase from 2025.
5. Denny Hamlin will have five fastest laps or fewer
Correct!
Hamlin had four fastest laps this season, at Las Vegas in March, Martinsville in March, at Nashville in May and at Las Vegas in October.
Even though Hamlin had half the number of fastest laps as last season, he still finished tied for the most fastest laps this season in Cup. Ryan Blaney also had four fastest laps (Bristol in April, Richmond in August, Phoenix in October, Homestead in November).
6. Tyler Reddick will be one of the first six drivers to win a Cup race this season
Correct!
Reddick was the first winner of the NASCAR Cup Series season as he took the Daytona 500 leading only the final lap of the race. But to prove it wasn't a fluke, Reddick then won the next two races and became the first driver in Cup Series history to open the season with three consecutive victories. He had a fabulous opening third of the season, as in the first 12 races Reddick won five times with eight top five finishes and his worst result was 15th.
Unfortunately, that form did not hold, and he won only once more over the final 24 races, a victory at Phoenix in October. Reddick dropped to fifth in the final championship standings.
7. Trackhouse will win fewer road course races by ten seconds or greater
Correct!
This one was correct on an account Trackhouse won fewer road course races period, mostly because there were fewer road course races total. This season saw only four road course events, a decrease from five, and Trackhouse didn't win two of those road courses, so naturally, after winning three road course races by ten seconds or greater in 2025, Trackhouse could not match such a total in 2026.
Either way, neither of its victories were by ten seconds.
Shane van Gisbergen did win in impressive fashion at Watkins Glen, taking fresh tires with 18 laps to go and overcoming a 29-plus second gap to leader Ty Gibbs to win by over seven seconds at the finish. At Sonoma, van Gisbergen had to fight Chase Briscoe to the finish with the margin of victory being less than half a second.
8. Connor Zilisch will win more races than Jesse Love
Wrong!
This prediction was based on all NASCAR national series, and both drivers won twice. Zilisch was actually the first to two victories this season. He won the spring Bristol race in NASCAR's second division, and he then won in that series at Watkins Glen.
Love did not win until the 26th race of the season at Gateway. He added a second victory four races later at Phoenix.
For most of this season, this prediction was trending in the right direction. I do believe I made this prediction expecting Zilisch to be more competitive in Cup and likely winning one road course race in Cup while jumping down to the lower series and still having some success. Heck, Zilisch was second after leading the most laps in the Watkins Glen Truck race. I don't feel too bad about this one. Zilisch had a tougher Cup season than expected. Love ran as expected. Now they will be competing against each other on Sundays in the Cup Series as Love moves to the Wood Brothers for 2027.
9. A driver running in multiple entries will win a race in NASCAR's second division
Correct!
This prediction always felt like it was going to be correct because Carson Kvapil was scheduled to run in two JR Motorsports entries while filling outhit season at DGM Racing. Kvapil was bound to win at least once at JR Motorsports, and he ended up winning three times in the final 12 races. All those victories came in the #1 Chevrolet, but he finished 11th or better in all of his five starts in the #9 JRM Chevrolet, and he had a pair of top ten finishes at DGM Racing.
Technically, Kvapil isn't the driver who fulfilled this prediction. It was actually Ross Chastain. Chastain ran for Jordan Anderson Racing at Atlanta and Austin, where he had two top ten finishes, he also had an eighth-place finish for DGM Racing at Martinsville, but Chastain won the Charlotte race in May driving the #9 JRM Chevrolet.
And Ryan Sieg even won a race this season despite driving multiple entries because Sieg won at Daytona in the #38 RSS Racing Chevrolet because he stepped out of his #39 Ford to allow Andy Jankowiak to make his debut in the series.
It was always going to be a JRM driver and then we had Sieg do it as well.
10. The Burton family will lead more combined laps in the first 20 races than they led in the entire 2025 season
Wrong!
Last season, the Burton family led a combined 60 laps. This season, they led a combined 44 laps. They didn't even come close to this one.
Jeb Burton led three laps in the first 20 races. He led a lap at Phoenix in March and two laps at Talladega in April. Jeb Burton went on to lead three laps at Iowa and then two at Las Vegas.
Harrison Burton led 25 laps in the first 20 races, 17 of those came at Martinsville in March. he led a lap at Talladega in April, five laps at Pocono in June and two laps at Sonoma in June. Over the rest of the season, Harrison Burton led two laps in the 21st race of the season at Atlanta, one lap at Daytona in August and eight laps at Talladega in October.
I thought both drivers would have done a little better. Jeb Burton was driving for Jordan Anderson Racing and Harrison Burton was at Sam Hunt Racing. I didn't expect either to win four or five races and compete for the championship. I really thought one or both of them would lead 25 to 30 laps at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta to really help the total, and then Harrison would have a good race at a short track and led 40 laps.
That never came close to happening.
11. Kaden Honeycutt will finish in the top three of victories in the Truck Series
Correct!
Honeycutt had the second-most victories in the Truck Series, winning five times and taking the championship while Layne Riggs was second in the championship with seven victories.
Honeycutt was bound to win driving for TRICON and taking over the #11 Toyota from Corey Heim. It always felt like Riggs was going to be Honeycutt's main competition for the championship. I wrote last December while making this prediction, "It feels like 2026 will be between Layne Riggs, Ty Majeski and Honeycutt while Chandler Smith has an outside shot as does [Christian] Eckes."
We had the pulse of this season before the calendar even changed to 2026. Those drivers ended up comprising the championship top five in the Truck Series.
12. Parker Kligerman will get credited with a top five finish
Correct!
I will admit, when I was going over these predictions, I thought I had gotten this one wrong, but upon further review, Kligerman was fourth in the Lime Rock Park Truck race! The Connecticut-native was fourth in his home race, at a track he technically owns a share of, and it was one he had to earn as Kligerman started 16th in a race without live pit stops. He was up to seventh at the end of stage two, and he made up a few more spots as others were knocked out of the way.
Seven of the top ten from the end of stage one finished behind Kligerman, and five of those driver finished 18th or worse. Fortunate played a little bit of a role in this one.
After twice finishing first on the road but being credited for no victories in 2025, I feels only right Kligerman get at least a top five finish for himself this year.
It is a little sad Kligerman didn't get more opportunities in 2026. The guy took the checkered flag first in two Daytona races last year and he ended up making zero Daytona starts this year. How does that work out? This is without bringing up that Ryan Truex did not make a start this year despite being one of the best drivers at Dover and only being two years removed from winning at Daytona as well in NASCAR's second division.
There is plenty of talent out there that do not have rides but are capable of running at the front in these series.
That is 8/12 for this year. Not bad. It very nearly could have been nine or ten. There isn't much to be displeased with after this one.
