Showing posts with label Supercross. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Supercross. Show all posts

Friday, May 29, 2026

Best of the Month: May 2026

Cross off another month. May is the fastest month we have even if it is one with 31 days. It begins chilly, not quite cold, but not entirely spring, or perhaps that is what spring is supposed to be. When it is over, it is glorious. It feels like this should have been this way for quite some time. Soon, it will be a little warmer than we would have liked, and these days will feel too few in our consciousness. 

Cleaning Up The "500"
We end May with what has a stranglehold over the entire month. Another Indianapolis 500 has been completed, and we have touched upon it, but let's try to put to bed what we have seen from the 110th edition of this race. 

General Moments of Wow!
This year's Indianapolis 500 had 70 lead changes, a new record, and the margin of victory was 0.0233 seconds. Yeah! That is nuts. 

Oh, and this year's race occurred on the 34th anniversary of the previous closest finish with Al Unser, Jr. defeating Scott Goodyear by 0.043 seconds.

We had 14 different leaders, but only four drivers led more than ten laps.

We had three different leaders in the final three laps of the race. Marcus Armstrong led lap 198, David Malukas is credited with leading lap 199 as he passed Armstrong before the start-finish line. Rosenqvist led lap 200.

That had never happened before in Indianapolis 500 history! We had only four other races where a pass for the lead had occurred on the final lap. In 2006, Marco Andretti led laps 198 and 199 before Sam Hornish, Jr. led lap 200. The same thing happened in 2011. J.R. Hildebrand led laps 198 and 199, but Dan Wheldon led lap 200. Two years ago, Marcus Ericsson had led laps 196 through 199, but Josef Newgarden took the lead on lap 200. In 2024, Newgarden led laps 196 through 198, Patricio O'Ward led lap 199 before Newgarden retook the lead on lap 200.

Swedish Hat Trick
With Rosenqvist's victory, we now have three Swedish drivers to have won the Indianapolis 500.

Kenny Bräck was the first in 1999. Marcus Ericsson won in 2022. Now, we add Rosenqvist. 

Five countries have produced at least three Indianapolis 500 winners. The United States leads the way with 55. The United Kingdom has five (Dario Resta, Jim Clark, Graham Hill, Dan Wheldon and Dario Franchitti). Brazil has four winners (Emerson Fittipaldi, Hélio Castroneves, Gil de Ferran and Tony Kanaan). France has four winners (Jules Goux, René Thomas, Gaston Chevrolet and Simon Pagenaud). 

Who had Sweden having three Indianapolis 500 winners? Meanwhile, Canada is still on one. Italy's only winner was 111 years ago. New Zealand is responsible for one of the greatest IndyCar drivers ever and has only won once. Australia has only one. We just ended a century-plus long streak between having a German driver start the race, and we are somewhat far off a German winning one. Mexico hasn't produced a winner yet. Did you know Belgium has had the most drivers start the Indianapolis 500 to not have produced a winner with eight? 

There have been five Swedish drivers to start the Indianapolis 500. That is 60% of their drivers have won the Indianapolis 500! If you want to win the Indianapolis 500, get yourself a Swede!

Top Five Returnees
Looking over this year's top five finishers, three of them were in the top five last year. Felix Rosenqvist was fourth last year and was first this year. David Malukas was second for a second consecutive year. Patricio O'Ward dropped from third in 2025 to fourth in 2026. 

It had me wondering, when was the last time three drivers finished in the top five in consecutive Indianapolis 500s?

Well, it just happened in 2024. Josef Newgarden won for the second consecutive year, and Álex Palou and Alexander Rossi flipped finishing fourth and fifth. However, this year's race was just the 12th time at least three drivers finished in the top five in consecutive Indianapolis 500s.

There has never been a case where the same five drivers finished in the top five in consecutive years. There have been two occasions where four of the five top five finishers were the same.

The first was 1960. Jim Rathmann, Rodger Ward, Paul Goldsmith and Johnny Thomson all finished in the top five a year after they were all in the top five in 1959. The change was Tony Bettenhausen was fourth in 1959 and Don Branson cracked the top five in 1960. 

The other time was in 1983. Tom Sneva, Al Unser, Rick Mears and Kevin Cogan were all back in the top five. The 1982 winner Gordon Johncock was not in the top five. Geoff Brabham took that last spot. 

When was the last time there were no carry over top five finishers? 

It happened in 2021. We had a complete line change. 

Takuma Sato, Scott Dixon, Graham Rahal, Santino Ferrucci and Josef Newgarden were out. Hélio Castroneves, Álex Palou, Simon Pagenaud, Patricio O'Ward and Ed Carpenter were in. 

On 23 occasions has the top five in the Indianapolis 500 been entirely different from the year before.

There is some good news, or perhaps bad news for this year's top five finishers. 

The last three Indianapolis 500 winners all finished in the top five the year before. However, only once has four consecutive Indianapolis 500s seen the winner finish in the top five the year prior. That would be from 1975 to 1978.

So... You want to change the banquet?
It isn't really changing the banquet, but not announcing the purse earnings for each entry as the drivers are on stage for the banquet. This came up on Off Track with James Hinchcliffe and Alexander Rossi. This has been mentioned a number of times before. We will discuss the purse a little more in depth on Monday, but the drivers' biggest gripe is they are essentially presented with the earnings, but that isn't the driver's money. That goes to the team. The driver gets a cut of it... sometimes. 

Motorsports is the biggest misconception in all of sports. It is presented as an individual sport. One name gets all the glory and attention. In reality, it is a collective effort that determines who wins not just the performance of one man or woman. There is a figurehead that is attributed all the success if it goes right and all the blame if it goes wrong. 

The banquet has been held for I don't know how many years, but it has always honored the figurehead, the driver, and the driver gets all the glory. After all, it is the driver who puts himself or herself in danger out on the racetrack. Money comes with that glory, at least what the team gets, and what the drivers do not like is it is misconstrued as that is their cut. 

Felix Rosenqvist isn't $4.34 million richer. Meyer Shank Racing earned $4.34 million. There aren't 22 drivers that made over $1 million on Sunday. In all likelihood, Rosenqvist is the only driver who made over $1 million for one race's worth of work, but the purses announced tell us a different story.

There is a simple solution. Just have the car owner come up and get the money. Stop presenting it to the driver. Have Mike Shank and Jim Meyer come up and collect two checks. Have Roger Penske get up three times. Have Zak Brown waddle up their four times. Larry Foyt can collect it for A.J. Have Ed Carpenter... well, the Ed Carpenter Racing cars finished 27th, 30th and 31st, we could probably give him all his checks at once. 

That is the easiest way to do it. Hand the check to the team owner. Never mention the money to the driver. Always say it to the team owner while handing over the check. Make it clear whose money it is. 

The other choice is a driver collective to say on stage what exact percentage they will receive. In recent years, the drivers have made it clear it isn't 100% theirs, but the statement that would be clear if the driver spoke up and said, "Under my contract, I will earn whatever-amount-of-money for my finish in the Indianapolis 500." The drivers can make it clear, and if they are uniform about, essentially using the same canned answer and just changing the amount, that will get the message across.

That requires the drivers to be open and honest about money and their contracts, and that will not look good for some drivers. It will be telling, and we will find out who is getting a raw deal, who is truly making nothing and basically did the race for the love of it with hopes it leads to greater opportunities, and who should be thanking their manager every night before they go to bed. 

The comfort level might not be there for the drivers to commit to it, but the only way it changes, the only way people learn is if something is done different, whether that is presenting the money to the proper party who will handle distributing it throughout the team or the drivers being blatantly honest about what they are getting and fully peeling back the curtain to show how the sausage is made. 

What Else Happened?
Scott Dixon surpassed 700 laps led in his Indianapolis 500 career, as Dixon has reached 709 laps led. No other active driver has led even half of Dixon's total. Only one other driver has led more than 200 laps. Those drivers are Hélio Castroneves (326) and Ryan Hunter-Reay (219). The next closest who is full-time? Of course, it is Álex Palou (192).

This was the seventh consecutive Indianapolis 500 where the driver who led the most laps did not win the race. The only longer period without the driver leading the most laps winning is the eight-year stretch from 1990 to 1997.

This was the fifth consecutive Indianapolis 500 where at least one team had at least two top five finishers. Even better, this was the third time in five years there were two teams with multiple top five finishers.

2022: Chip Ganassi Racing (First and third), Arrow McLaren (second and fourth)
2023: Chip Ganassi Racing (Second and fourth)
2024: Arrow McLaren (Second and fourth), Chip Ganassi Racing (third and fifth)
2025: A.J. Foyt Racing (Second and fifth)
2026: Meyer Shank Racing (First and fifth), Team Penske (second and third)

Felix Rosenqvist became the second driver to win the Macau Grand Prix and the Indianapolis 500. The first driver was Takuma Sato, who won at Macau in 2001 and won at Indianapolis in 2017 and 2020.

Rosenqvist is a two-time Macau winner. He won his first in 2014. Who was eighth in the 2014 Macau Grand Prix? Santino Ferrucci. Who was eighth in the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Santino Ferrucci. Who was seventh in the 2014 Macau Grand Prix? Max Verstappen! Who was 16th? Álex Palou!

Among the 269 drivers to start at least five Indianapolis 500s, Santino Ferrucci and Patricio O'Ward now rank fourth and fifth all-time in average finish at 6.375 and 6.4285 respectively. Álex Palou ranks ninth with an average finish of eighth.

Speaking of Ferrucci, he has eight top ten finishes in the Indianapolis 500, and he is one of 17 drivers with at least eight top ten finishes in this race. He has more top ten finishes than Arie Luyendyk, Josef Newgarden, Will Power, Bobby Rahal, Alexander Rossi and Rodger Ward. He has one fewer top ten finish than Rick Mears, Ted Horn and Michael Andretti. Horn and Andretti are the only drivers with more top ten finishes than Ferrucci who have not won the race. The only active drivers with more top tens in this race are Hélio Castroneves (17) and Scott Dixon (14). 

Among the 269 drivers to start at least five Indianapolis 500s, Katherine Legge ranks 269th. Legge join the list as this was her fifth start. With finishes of 22nd, 26th, 33rd, 29th and 33rd, her average finish is 28.6. The previous low-water mark for this group was Spike Gehlhausen, whose average finish in five starts is 26.4.

In case you are wondering, the middle of 269 drivers is somewhere between's Scott Goodyear's 16.72727 and Robbie Buhl's 16.75.

Where does Felix Rosenqvist rank? After eight starts, Rosenqvist ranks 121st with an average finish of 16.25, just between Felipe Giaffone (16.1667) and Tony Bettenhausen (16.2667).

Ken Roczen Appreciation
We cannot end May without recognizing Ken Roczen's AMA Supercross championship. 

At the end of April, Supercross was about to enter its final two races, and Roczen held a four-point lead in the championship over Hunter Lawrence. 

Lawrence cut the championship gap to one point with a victory in the penultimate round from Denver with Roczen finishing second. It essentially came down to who would finish better in Salt Lake City. Roczen got off to a great start while Lawrence was trailing. Lawrence then had an off-track excursion quickly followed with a fall and it sealed the championship for Roczen, who would hold on to finish fifth while Lawrence could only recover to finish seventh. 

Prior to Denver, it felt unlikely both riders would have two clean races to close the season and who did not make the mistake in the final events would be champion. It could have come down to who could make the fewest mistakes. Both riders were flawless in Denver. At Salt Lake City, Lawrence cracked, and it allowed Roczen to ride easy.

When previewing the final two races, I said it felt like this was the greatest chance for each rider to win the Supercross championship. Lawrence has time for another chance at it. It really comes down to whether or not his brother Jett remains healthy. This was it for Roczen. He turned 32 years old just prior to Denver, but he is an old 32. His body beat up seven ways to Sunday, there is no guarantee he will be this fit and quick for an entire season again. This was Roczen's moment to grab. 

There was something cathartic in seeing Roczen win this championship and the jubilation in the crowd over his accomplishment. We knew it was deserved. We knew Roczen was more than qualified to be champion. He was already great. The championship is extra recognition, written down in a record book for generations to see. It leaves no doubt about someone's legacy. Roczen was always fit to receive such an honor. His name will not be lost to history.

June Preview
June has two problems. It has a handful of notable events, and simultaneously doesn't have one stand out event.

I know what you are thinking, but we are going to preview the 24 Hours of Le Mans properly in about two weeks, but even then, it doesn't feel much different from the last few Le Mans. 

There is a general sourness over convergence and the actual competitiveness of the Hypercar class. Porsche is gone. Alpine is heading for the door. Genesis isn't going to win it in year one. Aston Martin isn't going to win it in year two. 

It is Le Mans, but we have seen the last few years and there is no reason to feel overly optimistic it will be much differnet. Who would have thought having 18 entries from eight manufacturers would be this anticlimactic? 

There is the 24 Hours of Spa two weeks after Le Mans, which also falls on the 6 Hours of the Glen weekend for IMSA. I think I am GT3-out. It is cool that it has 70 entries, but something is missing with the event. That is the case for almost every endurance race at the moment. It is going to end with a half-dozen cars or more on the lead lap after 23 hours. Endurance races do not feel as grueling or as spontaneous as they once were. 

The saving grace for the 24 Hours of Spa is there have been six different manufacturers to win in the last six years.

Porsche won in 2020 with Earl Bamber, Nick Tandy and Laurens Vanthoor. 
Ferrari took victory in 2021 with Côme Ledogar, Nicklas Nielsen and Alessandro Pier Guidi.
Mercedes-AMG won in 2022 with Jules Gounon, Daniel Juncadella and Raffaele Marciello.
In 2023, BMW won with Philipp Eng, Marco Wittman and Nick Yelloly. 
Two years ago, Aston Martin won the event for the first time since 1948 with Mattia Drudi, Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim. 
Last year, Lamborghini scored its first Spa victory with Mirko Bortolotti, Luca Engstler and Jordan Pepper.

What manufacturers could extend this streak? 

Corvette, though unlikely as its two entries are in the Silver Cup and Bronze Cup classes.

McLaren has eight entires, but only one, the #59 Garage 59 McLaren 720S GT3 EVO of Joseph Loake, Dean MacDonald and Marvin Kirchhöfer, is entered in the top class.

Ford has two Mustangs entered with HRT Racing. The #64 Ford is in the top class with Arjun Maini, Fabio Scherer and Thomas Drouet. The #65 Ford is a Silver Cup entry with Finn Wiebelhaus, Maxime Oosten, Eduardo Coseteng and Max Reis.

There are six Audis in this race. Only one is in the top class. The #84 Eastalent Racing Audi has Christopher Haase, Simon Reicher and Markus Winkelhock entered. Audi last won this race in 2017. Haase and Winkelhock were two of the winning drivers that year. Winkelhock also won in 2014.

Other events of note in June:
NASCAR's final two road course races of the season happen in June. The first is on a temporary circuit around the Coronado Navel Base outside San Diego. The other is Sonoma, which doubles as the opening round for the in-season tournament. 
MotoGP has an Eastern European swing to Hungary and the Czech Republic, before the Dutch TT. 
We will have the Monaco Grand Prix before the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix and then Austria.
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters have one round at the Lausitzring.
IndyCar will be at Gateway and Road America.
The World Rally Championship will contest the Acropolis Rally.




Thursday, April 30, 2026

Best of the Month: April 2026

And now a third of the year is complete. Where does the time go? It wasn't long ago night was longer than the day, temperatures were rather frigid, and most motorsports seasons had yet to start. Now, our days continue to grow longer, most days do not require a jacket and pretty much every series has started. We have been keeping ourselves busy, and there are still more races ahead. There is plenty to look forward to. 

Some major races are to come, but a few major races have already taken place. One saw a notable winner who deserves recognition.

Renger van der Zande
The Dutchman has won in every season since IMSA reunification. At Long Beach, van der Zande extended his streak to 13 consecutive seasons. He is the only one to be victorious in every season since the American Le Mans Series and Grand-Am came together.

Neither Taylor brother has done it. It isn't Bill Auberlen or Antonio García. Dane Cameron doesn't have this record. Felipe Nasr was still in Formula One when this streak began. Kevin Magnussen was a Formula One rookie. Filipe Albuquerque was an Audi driver and about to make his Le Mans debut. Tom Blomqvist was competing against Esteban Ocon and Max Verstappen in Formula Three.

At no point was this expected. Van der Zande came to America in the Prototype Challenge class, recruited to drive with Mirco Schultis. Van der Zande had good Formula Three results. He spent a year in a year-old car in Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters. This journey started in ALMS with DragonSpeed. After reunification, Schultis and van der Zande went to Starworks in the same class.

The first victory was at Laguna Seca. It was a split class race. The pro-am classes raced together on a Sunday morning. Later that season, Schultis and van der Zande won at Road America before closing the season wit a victory at Petit Le Mans. Two more victories followed in 2015. Four victories and a championship with Alex Popow came after that in 2016.

In 2017, Spirit of Daytona Racing called van der Zande and he was promoted into the Prototype class. He left his mark at Laguna Seca with a daring pass on Dane Cameron in the Corkscrew to take the lead and ultimately the victory. Van der Zande was only at Spirit of Daytona for a year because Wayne Taylor Racing came calling. He nearly didn't win in his first year, but van der Zande pulled out a victory at Petit Le Mans to close the year. In the next two seasons, van der Zande won the 24 Hours of Daytona. 

Van der Zande moved with Cadillac to Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021. He and Kevin Magnussen won at Belle Isle. With Sébastien Bourdais as his teammate in 2022, they won three times. Bourdais and van der Zande won again at Laguna Seca in 2023 and then Long Beach and Petit Le Mans in 2024.

Last year, van der Zande moved to Meyer Shank Racing with Acura. He and Nick Yelloly won at Detroit. Now, the duo returns to Laguna Seca fresh off a victory at Long Beach, van der Zande's third in the famed event. 

That is 23 victories in 13 seasons on 11 different circuits. IMSA doesn't race at Lime Rock Park or Circuit of the Americas, but van der Zande has won there. He has had 13 different co-drivers be a part of those winning teams. Popow and Bourdais were his most frequent victorious stablemates. Schultis is close behind. During this streak, van der Zande has also won races with Scott Dixon, Kamui Kobayashi and Fernando Alonso.

We give van der Zande his flowers because we really don't know what the future will look like beyond 2026 for him. With Acura pausing its GTP program at the end of this season, it is unclear where he could go. Perhaps a privateer takes up the Acura program and keeps him in a job, but that is an unlikely outcome. The GTP class might be closer to a crossroads than it thought it would be. Acura is stopping. Porsche already pulled out of the FIA World Endurance Championship. There does not sound like there is great interest from Genesis and future LMDh manufacturers Ford and McLaren in racing in IMSA. 

There might not be any vacancy for van der Zander to fill come next season, at least not in the top class. LMP2 could be the fallback, but it would be a loss seeing such a talent not in the top category. 

Van der Zande turned 40 this February. Sneaky old if we are being honest. He feels like a kid but he is very much a veteran. The runway is getting shorter. The end is closer than we think. It could come before anyone wants it to happen. 

Before we get to that moment, it is only proper to honor a driver that is rather unsung. Van der Zande is not the face of IMSA. He isn't the social media darling. No one is pushing him to the forefront to be an ambassador for the series. He isn't known for rubbing elbows at NASCAR races or IndyCar races. Despite this, for over a decade, we can almost count on van der Zande winning a race. Let's hope we get many more years of his participation in IMSA, and let's not take for granted each race over the rest of 2026.

May Preview
Two races remain in the AMA Supercross season, and the championship will go to one of three gentlemen. In all likelihood, it will be one of two men going to the wire. 

With four victories in the last five races, Ken Roczen has taken the championship lead with 310 points, four ahead of Hunter Lawrence. Mathematically, Cooper Webb has a chance to defend his championship and claim his third Supercross title, as Webb is 34 points behind Roczen after finishing runner-up in the last three races. 

Roczen is 31 years old and he is in 12th season in the 450cc class. Nine years ago, it felt inevitable Roczen would be a champion. He opened the 2017 season with a pair of victories, but he suffered a fractured left arm in the third round, ending his season. He returned in 2018 and was finding his groove before suffering another serious arm injury only six races into his comeback. He went three years between Supercross victories, and while he has had some good runs, Roczen has still struggled with injuries. In three of the last four seasons, an injury has ended his run early. 

This year, he has remained unscathed, and what once appeared to be a fleeting hope is now within his grasp. 

Lawrence rode rather remarkable to start the season, leading the championship before he ever won a race, and then he won three of four in the middle of the season. A few slips have cost him. Detroit saw a fall open the door. An underwhelming Triple Crown round at Cleveland right as it appeared the championship was back in Lawrence's control allowed Roczen to close within touching distance. 

Roczen trudged through the sloppy conditions in Philadelphia to take a comfortable victory and the championship lead. Heading to Denver and Salt Lake City, momentum has swung in favor of the German, but four points is nothing. Neither rider can afford a mistake in the final two rounds. Neither you can guarantee will be clean through the end of the season. 

For each rider, this could be their greatest chance a 450cc Supercross championship. Roczen is not getting any younger. Lawrence and the rest of the competition will likely have to deal with Jett Lawrence, who has been sidelined for this entire 2026 season due to an ankle injury suffered in preseason training, for years to come. Both riders could be staring down their one shot at glory, only intensifying the already building pressure.

Other events of note in May:
IMSA begins the month in Laguna Seca and ends the month on the streets of Detroit. 
The 24 Hours Nürburgring will run on May 9-10 and Max Verstappen is supposed to be there. 
After Berlin, Formula E will race in Monaco. 
MotoGP gets busy with events in Le Mans, Barcelona and Mugello. 
NASCAR has its earliest ever trip to Watkins Glen and an unpopular All-Star Race scheduled at Dover before its 600-miler at Charlotte. Nashville will also take place.
Formula One has consecutive sprint weekends with a trip to Miami, two weeks off and then the Canadian Grand Prix on Memorial Day weekend.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosts a pair of events. It is probably nothing that important though.


Thursday, January 8, 2026

2026 Supercross Preview

Early January brings another Supercross season to kick off the motorsports year. Ahead of us are 17 rounds over 18 weekends, and the championship has been shaken up since the 2025 season finale. A handful of notable riders have switched manufacturers, and there is even a new make in the starting gates.

Last year was notable for the number of top riders who had season end prematurely due to injury. With a number of top riders healthy, results should be mixed up from what occurred in 2025, however, one key contender is sidelined, and it leaves the door open for others.

Supercross is still on the verge of history. With four different champions in the last four seasons, we could still see something that has not occurred since the 1980s: Five different champions in five years. Yamaha and Honda have split the last four championships. Yamaha is attempting to win consecutive titles for the first time since 2008-09.

Schedule
Anaheim hosts another season opener and leads off a trio of California races to begin the season. From the Anaheim opener on January 10, the series will move to San Diego on January 17 before returning for the second Anaheim event on January 24.

The first venture out of the Golden State will be on January 31 to Houston, and Houston is the first Triple Crown event of the season. Glendale will be on February 7 before and early trip to Seattle the following week. Supercross returns to Texas for the Arlington round on February 21. Daytona Bike Week closes out the shortest month with the Supercross round on February 28.

The season passes the midway point on March 7 with the second Triple Crown weekend in Indianapolis, which has the lone off-week following on March 14. Competition resumes in Birmingham on March 21 before Detroit on March 28. After being a SuperMotocross playoff round in 2025, St. Louis is back on the Supercross calendar for a race the day before Easter on April 4. 

Round 13 is at Nashville before Supercross visits the only new stadium on the schedule, Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, which also doubles as the final Triple Crown race of the season. It is the series' second trip ever to Cleveland. On May 20, 1995, Jeremy McGrath won at Cleveland Stadium ahead of Jeff Emig. Philadelphia is the only Northeast venue on the calendar with a race on April 25. The season concludes with a pair of races in the Rocky Mountains, Denver on May 2 and Salt Lake City hosts the finale for the seventh consecutive season on May 9.

What Happened Last Year?
Cooper Webb took his second Supercross championship by two points over Chase Sexton despite Sexton having won seven races over the 2025 season to Webb's five.

Webb had only one finish worse than fourth all season, and that was eighth in the third round of the season. Sexton never finished worse than sixth, a significant improve from past seasons where he let results slip away, but Webb had 13 podium finishes while Sexton had 12. Sexton won four of the final five races with Webb finishing runner-up in three of them. 

What led to this two-man race was the early exits for two early championship contenders. Jett Lawrence was knocked out after the fourth round of the season due to a torn ACL. Lawrence had won at Anaheim, and he was second in San Diego. Two rounds later, Eli Tomac suffered a broken left fibula and Hunter Lawrence suffered a torn labrum. Tomac was victorious in San Diego.

Ken Roczen was an early front-runner in the 2025 season. Through the first eight races, Roczen had six podium finishes, which was highlighted with a victory at Daytona. However, in the final nine races, Roczen's had only one podium finish, and he missed the final two rounds due to an ankle injury. 

Last season did see Justin Cooper score his best championship finish in third with Cooper standing on the podium four times. Malcolm Stewart took a popular first career victory in the 450cc class at Tampa Bay, and Stewart was a career-best fourth in the championship. Aaron Plessinger took a surprise victory at Foxborough ahead of Shane McElrath in an even more stunning second. 

Jason Anderson had three podium finishes in the first five races before his season ended due to injury, and Jorge Prado, in his first attempt at a full Supercross season, was hurt at the third round in Anaheim. 

What is Different This Year?
Many riders have switched teams. 

Sexton has left Honda and he will be the lead rider at Monster Energy Kawasaki with Garrett Marchbanks as his teammate. Marchbanks was fifth in the 250cc West championship last year. 

KTM has expanded to three bikes with Tomac and Prado joining Plessinger. Prado's two MX2 Motocross World Championships came with KTM in 2018-19.

With Tomac's departure, Yamaha will remain at two riders with Webb and Cooper.

Jason Anderson has moved to the Twisted Tea Suzuki team with Colt Nichols as his teammate. 

Rockstar Husqvarna has brought RJ Hampshire to join Stewart. After finishing third in the 250cc East championship, Hampshire moved up to the 450cc class for the Motocross season and finished fifth in the championship with three podium finishes. Hampshire did suffer a broken scapula and broken ribs in a training crash during the offseason.

GasGas has exited the AMA Supercross championship, but it will be replaced with Ducati, as Troy Lee Designs Red Bull Ducati Factory Racing takes on displaced GasGas rider Justin Barcia, and Dylan Ferrandis joins the fold after running for Phoenix Racing Honda for the last two seasons. 

Ducati isn't the only new manufacturer for 2026. Triumph will field two bikes for Jordon Smith and Austin Forkner. Smith won a round in each of the last two 250cc West championships, but he will miss the first part of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered in the SuperMotocross finale last year. Forkner competed with Triumph in the 250cc East championship and 250cc Motocross championship last year.

How Will it Play Out?
The 2026 season was turned upside down three weeks before the season started when it was announced Jett Lawrence suffered a broken ankle in a training crash, and Lawrence will be sidelined for three months, effectively ending any hopes of the championship. After missing most of the 2025 Supercross season, Lawrence returned for the Motocross season where he won 16 of 22 races, and he was on the podium 21 times as he claimed his second 450cc championship. He capped off the season with a second consecutive Motocross des Nations title for Australia with his brother Hunter and Kyle Webster.

Prior to Jett's injury, it was difficult to envision the Lawrence brothers losing many races this season. With Jett out, the door is more open. 

Hunter Lawrence won twice and never finished worse than fifth on his way to finishing second in the Motocross championship in 2025. The Lawrence brothers capped off the year splitting the SuperMotocross playoff events with Jett winning two and Hunter winning the other, and they finished 1-2 in that championship as well. However, in his two seasons in Supecross' 450cc division, he has only two podium finishes. It is not as simple as Hunter filling the void his brother has left. 

With Jett Lawrence out, Webb's chance of a successful title defense shoot up significantly. He can control this championship and be the man to beat more often than if Jett Lawrence was competing. With Webb becoming more of a favorite than an underdog, he will become an obstacle to others, and it will allow him to be more confident in his aggression.

Meanwhile, Sexton has something to prove at Kawasaki. Kawasaki has not won a 450cc Supercross race since Jason Anderson closed the 2022 season with four consecutive victories. We saw a different Sexton in 2025, but the uncertainty at his new team could lead Sexton to push more and perhaps lapse back into some of the unforced errors we were accustomed to seeing in previous seasons. 

Tomac was a stunner in the Motocross season as he finished third, and he was third in all three SuperMotocross playoff rounds as well. Tomac still has a spark, but it only flashes infrequently. There will be a race or two where Tomac is the man, but there will be a few rounds where he is rather anonymous. 

Without Jett Lawrence, the chance for a surprise winner also increases. Stewart, Anderson and Cooper likely would be hoping to get on the podium at some point in 2026 with a healthy Jett Lawrence on track. Now, they all have a chance at the title. Hampshire felt like a promising dark horse, but his offseason injuries must be kept in mind. The most curious situation is Prado at KTM. He is returning to a make he has great comfort with, but Supercross is still mostly an unknown. He had promising moments in his three-round sample in 2024, but the 2025 was tough prior to his injury. The Spaniard was also competing on a Kawasaki.

There is no clear favorite. Hunter Lawrence will have good days, and he should probably win a few rounds, but on his off days, he will be fighting for the top five. Webb will not struggle to beat Hunter Lawrence, and he should be the championship favorite. The pressure will be on Hunter Lawrence to show he has what it takes to be the rider to beat, and we don't know how he will handle that pressure. Tomac has not quite had the pace the last two seasons to push for a title. Sexton will be trying to lift a manufacturer that has been down the order the last few seasons, and Sexton will be hoping his consistency from 2025 at KTM will carry over to a new bike. 

Which Ken Roczen will we see? Your guess is as good as mind. He will have a few competitive races, but a full, 17-race calendar worth of competitive races is a great stretch.

One injury changes the outlook of this season. With a healthy Jett Lawrence, there is a clear direction where the championship heads. Without him, it is open, maybe not as much as we saw in 2025, but it sets up to put a few riders more into the spotlight. A successful title defense feels possible when it previously felt unlikely. For Webb, familiarity could be his greatest advantage, as his rivals are all in new places and will be learning each time out of the gate.

Coverage of the 2026 AMA Supercross season opener from Anaheim will begin on Saturday January 10 at 7:00 p.m. ET on Peacock. 


Wednesday, December 24, 2025

2025 Motorsports Christmas List

It is Christmas Eve, and you likely wondered if we were going to pass out some Christmas presents this year, but here we are! The last month or so has been rather difficult. It was an active month with Formula One finishing up its season. Then the 23XI/Front Row Motorsports vs. NASCAR was underway and took about a week-and-a-half our attention before the case was settled and the teams were the big winners. Sadly, the last week has been marred with the fatal plane crash that claimed the lives of Greg Biffle and his family.

This December never really settled down. Now Christmas is here. These next few days should be a little more peaceful. It should be a chance to detach for a moment and not be consumed with anything all that important. This should be time for ourselves. 

Before the festivities get going with family visiting, meals shared and gifts exchanged, let’s cover what we are handing out to those in the motorsports world. 

To Denny Hamlin: Immunity for untimely cautions

To Michael Jordan: Cigars

To Denny Hamlin, Michael Jordan and Bob Jenkins: Thank You cards from every other NASCAR team owner

To Lando Norris: Jet-ski

To Oscar Piastri: Restored confidence 

To Zak Brown: Humility

To Max Verstappen: Patience in Barcelona 

To Lewis Hamilton: A Time Machine back to December 24, 2023.

To Charles Leclerc: Acceptance when it it time to move on

To Oliver Bearman: Catching another team’s attention

To George Russell: A trip to Bali

To Andrea Kimi Antonelli: No sophomore slump

To Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez: Smooth development

To Cadillac F1: Respectable results

To Colton Herta: His time being worth the switch to Formula Two

To Isack Hadjar: A full season at Red Bull

To Arvid Lindblad: There actually being a change of philosophy at Red Bull with Helmut Marko gone

To Liam Lawson: Continuing to outscore the second Red Bull entry

To Carlos Sainz, Jr.: His best race of the season being in Madrid

To Alexander Albon: Quickly ending his point-less streak

To Nico Hülkenberg: Another podium finish

To Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon: Making up

To Yuki Tsunoda: A dabbling in IndyCar

To Franco Colapinto: Being ready to jump

To Fernando Alonso: A few entries into the record book

To Gabriel Bortoleto: Continuing his development

To Leonardo Fornaroli, Jak Crawford, Luke Browning and a host of other junior drivers: Formula One sprint weekends becoming a separate championship for reserve/development/non-full-time drivers to compete

To Alex Dunne: Less contact

To Marc Márquez: A good challenge in track

To Álex Márquez: A few memorable battles where he beats his brother Marc

To Jorge Martín: Not being rusty

To Marco Bezzecchi: A better start to the season

To Francesco Bagnaia: Staying up right

To Johann Zarco: A few more rainy days

To Fabio Quartararo: Not needing to be majestic just to get average results

To Pedro Acosta: Not getting stuck at KTM if things take a turn

To MotoGP: The Brazilian Grand Prix returning without a hitch

To Daniel Holgado and David Alonso: Becoming title contenders in Moto2

To Supercars: A mulligan for 2025

To Broc Feeney: A clean weekend at Adelaide

To Chaz Mostert: NASCAR Cup weekends at Austin and Watkins Glen

To Kyle Larson: Comfortability in failure

To Chase Elliott: Legos

To William Byron: Reasonable expectations

To Alex Bowman: The first Hendrick Motorsports victory of 2026

To Brad Keselowski: A speedy recovery

To Chris Buescher: More laps led

To Shane van Gisbergen: A top 20 average finish on ovals

To Connor Zilisch: No broken bones

To Corey Heim: A NASCAR Cup Series ride

To Joey Logano: Sunscreen

To Ryan Blaney: Razors

To Austin Cindric: That lost road course ability

To Josh Berry: More than two good races

To Kyle Busch: A clear path for 2027 and beyond

To Austin Dillon: Sustained success at Richmond

To Richmond Raceway: Regulations that allow for competitive racing

To Watkins Glen: A lovely spring weekend for May 9-10

To Bubba Wallace: More road course practice

To Tyler Reddick: Mental clarity

To Christopher Bell: Being on the right side of the cutline after Martinsville

To Chase Briscoe: A pinball machine

To Daniel Suárez: Keeping up with his new teammates

To Ty Gibbs: The ability to be a good teammate

To Erik Jones: Short-track speed

To John Hunter Nemechek: Three consecutive top ten finishes at some point in 2026

To Kaulig Racing and RAM: Not screwing up year one in the Truck Series

To Parker Kligerman: A Daytona victory that counts in the record books

To A.J. Allmendinger: More sports opportunities and an Indianapolis 500 entry with Meyer Shank Racing

To Sheldon Creed: Finally winning a NASCAR national series race 

To Matt Crafton: A peaceful retirement

To Nick Sanchez: Landing on his feet in a competitive seat

To Justin Allgaier: Slippers

To Jesse Love: A fitting championship result 

To Austin Hill: Deep breathing exercises 

To Corey Day: Not being replaced midseason due to results

To Aric Almirola: Full-time in NASCAR’s second division

To NASCAR Brasil Series champion Rubens Barrichello: A NASCAR Cup entry at Austin

To Chicagoland Speedway: Proper-running plumbing

To Iowa Speedway: A better connection with the local area

To Formula E: Their races on a proper channel in the United States and races on weekends and at times when nothing else is going on. 

To Jake Dennis: A sports car role

To Aston Martin: Results that justify the attention drawn to its LMDh program

To Porsche: Better luck on the next set of FIA World Endurance Championship regulations

To Hertz Team Jota: No contact between its cars

To the 24 Hours of Le Mans: A real battle with multiple manufacturers until the checkered flag

To Lone Star Le Mans: Moving to any other weekend but Labor Day weekend. Open the season in Austin.

To IndyCar: A 2028 car that stands out and attracts more attention from manufacturers and viewers

To Álex Palou: As much success in the courtroom as he has on the racetrack

To Scott Dixon: A victory where the leader didn’t drive off course on his own

To Scott McLaughlin: Taking the green flag for every Indianapolis 500 for the rest of his career

To Will Power: Showing it to Team Penske

To Kyle Kirkwood: A complete season

To Marcus Ericsson: A return to 2022 form

To Josef Newgarden: No finishes outside the top twenty 

To David Malukas: Maturity

To Patricio O’Ward: A home race that IndyCar properly supports

To Christian Lundgaard: Better oval results

To Ryan Hunter-Reay: A development role in the McLaren Hypercar program

To Callum Ilott: Two full seasons in IndyCar and IMSA 

To Robert Shwartzman: Road course pace that matches his oval for,

To Prema: A charter and some financial support

To Dennis Hauger: Giving Andretti Global a good headache

To Marcus Armstrong: A few days when he is the best Kiwi in IndyCar

To Felix Rosenqvist: Races where he starts in the top five and finishes better than where he finishes 

To Conor Daly: A good role as an ambassador

To Alexander Rossi: A tire advantage in the final stint at Milwaukee

To Christian Rasmussen: Remaining on Ed Carpenter’s good side

To Mick Schumacher: Fun days at the racetrack

To Graham Rahal: Better tire strategy when leading the Grand Prix of Indianapolis

To Louis Foster: A top ten finish

To Myles Rowe: A real shot at IndyCar

To Caio Collet: Not becoming the next Matheus Leist at A.J. Foyt Racing

To Santino Ferrucci: Proper pit entry at every race

To Rinus VeeKay: Not sweating out a Last Row Qualifying session for the Indianapolis 500

To Kyffin Simpson: Results that do the Sunoco livery justice

To Sting Ray Robb: A snowblower

To Jack Harvey: Lincoln City promotion to the Championships. Currently second in League One

To Romain Grosjean: More weekends at the racetrack as Prema’s reserve driver

To Hélio Castroneves: 112 laps in the Indianapolis 500

To Takuma Sato: Kitchen remodeling

To Victor Martins: Half the success Dennis Hauger had in Indy Lights

To IndyCar’s new street races in Arlington and Markham: No hiccups

To IndyCar’s new officiating panel: Team Penske being in its best behavior

To Tim Cindric: Quiet days at home

To Jack Benyon: A full-time podcast co-host

To Dario Franchitti: A 24 Hours of Le Mans entry

To all the Meyer Shank Racing Acura GTP Drivers: Honda supporting the program to take it to Le Mans

To Kakunoshin Ohta: Honda making up its damn mind over what it wants to do with him in the United States

To Ben Barnicoat: A swimming-based training program

To Kelvin van der Linde: A BMW GTP/Hypercar opportunity

To Kamui Kobayashi: A Super Formula victory

To Genesis Magma Racing: Respectable first-year results

To António Félix da Costa: Making Porsche jealousy

To Richard Verschoor: Peace in sports car racing

To James Calado: Proper recognition from his home country that he is a world champion with Ferrari

To Alessandro Pier Guidi and Antonio Giovinazzi: Proper recognition from their home country that they are world champions with Ferrari 

To Louis Delétraz and Jordan Taylor: Top five finishes

To Felipe Nasr and Nick Tandy: Strong finishes

To Frederik Vesti: More than just the endurance races in IMSA

To Jack Aitken: A scooter

To Earl Bamber: Noise-cancelling headphones

To Tower Motorsport: Clearing post-race inspection at the 24 Hours of Daytona

To Dane Cameron: A return to GTP competition. 

To Ricky Taylor: New patio furniture

To Philipp Eng and Dries Vanthoor: Race results matching qualifying results

To Kevin Magnussen: Replicating some of his father’s success

To Nick Cassidy: Peugeot having it figured out

To IMSA LMP2 category: A weekend with a split pro race and amateur race. That would be fun to see. 

To Sébastien Bourdais: Heating pads

To Tom Blomqvist and a host of other sports car drivers: No clashes between IMSA and the European Le Mans Series. I don’t understand how or why a series with six-race weekends would clash with another multi-class series with so many shared drivers.

To Jack Hawksworth: A few breaks

To James Hinchcliffe: No race cars let down on his feet

To Logan Sargeant: Joy at the racetrack

To Memo Gidley: A 24 Hours of Daytona return

To Road America: A stellar IMSA endurance race weekend 

To Dover Motor Speedway: A points-paying NASCAR Cup race

To Zandvoort: A fitting end to this stint on the Formula One calendar

To Sébastien Ogier: A season where it is clear whether or not he will be full-time or part-time

To Kalle Rovanperä: A personal training program to develop the right muscles

To the NHRA: The ability to postpone the final round of the season to another weekend if it is going to rain for the entirety of the scheduled date

To Jim France: A rocking chair and some thick blankets

To Jett and Hunter Lawrence: A tandem bike

To Eli Tomac: One more trip to the fountain of youth

To Cooper Webb: A motocross season that matches his Supercross success

To the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters: Reinforcements after a number of its top drivers announced they would not be returning for 2026

To Antonio García: A championship finish other than first or third

To Jack Doohan: A full-time ride somewhere. DTM?

To Mac Clark: Support up to Indy Lights

To Liam McNeilly: No visa issues and a full season in Indy Pro 2000

To Max Garcia: Enough patience to realize he doesn’t need to be in IndyCar by the time he turns 18 years old 

To Elfyn Evans: Coming back in another time where he isn’t stuck finished second in the World Rally Championship… and a return of Wales Rally GB

To Valentino Rossi: A 24 Hours of Daytona entry

To Kaden Honeycutt: Full-time job security

To Rockingham Speedway: Lights and a NASCAR Cup date in late-spring

To North Wilkesboro Speedway: Its NASCAR Cup race moving to Saturday night. There is no reason for IndyCar and NASCAR to be clashing post-World Cup final

To Indianapolis Motor Speedway: Realizing we have heard enough about the pavement in turn two. Were good.

To Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course: Facility updates. Come on, now! This has been too long.

To Lime Rock Park: A proper sports car round. Either IMSA GT only or Michelin Pilot Challenge

To Superstars Racing Experience: A NASCAR-funded resurrection that has it compete at a half-dozen short tracks 

To World Superbike: A competitive championship

To Nicolò Bulega: A challenge for the entire season

To the Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Using oval turn one

To Laguna Seca: A crowd worthy of hosting the IndyCar finale

To the Milwaukee Mile: IndyCar realizing it is the best event currently on the schedule for its finale

To Chip Ganassi Racing’s Indy Lights program: Many spare parts

To NASCAR: A championship format that rewards winning, is a season-long aggregate and accepting that the championship might not go down to the final lap of the season

To the NASCAR In-Season Tournament: Some stakes worth a damn

To the Canadian Grand Prix: Moving to the Sunday before the Indianapolis 500 or the Sunday after the Indianapolis 500 in 2027 and from there onward. 

And that is it! The bag is empty. 

I wish you all a Merry Christmas, and I hope you have a fun few days. We have a few more sets of predictions left before we close out 2025, and soon we will be entirely locked in on the new seasons, which will be here in a flash.


Friday, December 19, 2025

2026 Motorcycle Predictions

We are onto the second set of predictions, and fittingly, these are of the two-wheel variety. 

A number of changes are coming to some of the biggest motorcycle championships in the world. Riders are switching manufacturers. Some are changing series. Plenty of riders are attempting to comeback from injuries. There is never a dull moment, and with that, we try to gaze into the future and predict what will happen in a form of motorsports that is constantly getting turned upside down. 

MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez longest sprint race winning streak will not be longer than five races
Márquez won 13 sprint races in 2025 before his season was cut short at the Indonesia round. He opened the season with six consecutive sprint victories before he was second in the Silverstone sprint race behind his brother Álex Márquez.

After Silverstone, Marc Márquez won the next seven sprint races. 

He might still be the best rider in the world in 2026, and Ducati still might be the best bike, but we surely are not going to see the same level of dominance. Right? He was on pace for 15.8889 sprint victories before his injury. Surely, he isn't going to repeat that. 

Even if he wins five consecutive sprint races multiple times during the 2026 season but never more than five, he would still have at most 19 sprint races victories. He could be super and still have this prediction come in correct. I think the competition will step up a level in 2026 and Márquez will winner fewer sprint races, but he could still even if he remains on top.

2. Aprilia has multiple multi-race winning streaks
Aprilia was halfway to this prediction at the end of 2025. Aprilia ended up winning three of the final four races, including the final two. Yes, these came without Marc Márquez on the grid, but Marco Bezzecchi was rising in the second-half of 2025, and Bezzecchi also won the British Grand Prix. Raúl Fernández won the Australian Grand Prix with Trackhouse, and we should be getting a healthy Jorge Martín back. 

If Martín and Bezzecchi combined to bring the fight to Ducati, it is not crazy to think Martín could win at Le Mans and Bezzecchi then win at Barcelona before later in the season seeing Martín win consecutive races at Misano and the Austrian Grand Prix. 

Add in the testing results with the end of the 2025 season, Aprilia is poising to be a threat, at least a greater one to Ducati.

3. Pedro Acosta will finish on the podium before either Ducati rider on a year-old bike
In the first 11 races of the 2025 season, Acosta had zero podium finishes. In the second 11 races, Acosta had five podium finishes. Next season, Fermín Aldeguer and Franco Morbidelli will be on the Ducati Desmosedici GP25, Aldeguer with Gresini and Morbidelli with VR46.

Aldeguer did have three podium finishes last year, and he won at Indonesia. Morbidelli had two third-place finishes in the first four races, and then he didn't finish on the podium again.

Acosta is doing more with less at KTM, a manufacturer that has plenty of financial concerns away from the racetrack. He was able to finish fourth in the championship, beating Francesco Bagnaia. Acosta could get on the podium in the first race from Thailand. I don't think his 2026 season will start as slowly as 2025 did.

4. Toprak Razgatlioglu will score majority of his points in the second half of the season
The World Superbike champion is heading to MotoGP in 2026, and Razgatlioglu will be on the Pramac Yamaha. 

Yamaha has not been in a great spot the last few seasons. Last year, Fabio Quartararo was ninth in the championship, but his only podium finish was second at Jerez. Jack Miller was the next closest Yamaha rider in 17th, 122 points behind Quartararo. Álex Rins had 68 points over the entire season while Miguel Oliveria had 43 points, though Oliveira missed four races. 

There will be a learning curve for Razgatlioglu. There will be a number of new circuits to him. He will be learning a new bike that might not be the most competitive. It could take a few rounds to adjust, but once he does, Razgatlioglu could start producing. The goal should be to beat Miller. If 80 points is enough, I think Razgatlioglu can get there.

5. A Honda rider cracks the championship top ten
This is the wild one because I am not sure what reasoning can be used to justify this other than Honda was better in 2025 and it was better across the board. 

Johan Zarco was vaulted up to 12th in the championship thanks in part to a victory at Le Mans and a second as Silverstone. Luca Marini was only six points behind Zarco. Joan Mir did get 15th in the championship and he was third at Motegi and Sepang. 

Somkiat Chantra has been replaced with Moto2 champion Diogo Moreira. I think there is enough consistency that can allow Zarco to sneak into the top ten. I would say Marini is the next likeliest rider to do it. It does fell like Mir is too prone to a fall to trust he can put enough results to snag tenth. Expecting the top ten out of Moreira is asking for too much.

6. Rookie and sophomore riders will combine to win at least 12 Moto2 races
During the 2025 Moto2 season, rookies and sophomores combined for 11 victories. 

Sophomore Diogo Moreira led the way with four victories. Senna Agius won twice. Deniz Öncü also won twice. 

Rookie Daniel Holgado won twice while David Alonso won in Hungary. 

That is a pretty good pull, but I would expect Holgado and Alonso to win more in 2026. They could win four or five races between them. Then you have José Antonio Rueda and Ángel Piqueras moving up from Moto3 after they finished 1-2 in the championship, and Taiyo Furusato is also moving up, and he ended the season with three consecutive podium finishes, including a victory in Malaysia.

Rueda will be returning after missing the last three Moto3 races due to injuries suffered during his formation lap crash with Noah Dettwiler. It will be curious to see Rueda's form, and he might not be quite in the position to compete for race victories. 

There could be a surprise winner. Collin Veijer or Iván Ortolá could win in their sophomore Moto2 season and contribute to this prediction. 

World Superbike
7. There will be at least two first-time winners
Toprak Razgatlioglu is gone. Jonathan Rea has retired. The grid has lost some fire power, and it has opened the door. 

The championship will still be Nicolò Bulega's to lose. Bulega was the one threat Razgalioglu faced on a regular basis over the last two seasons. Bulega is going to win a lion's share of the races, but the door will be open to others, like Bulega's Ducati teammate Iker Lecuona.

Lecuona moved over after four seasons at Honda which yielded only two position. The Ducati will only cure so much, but it will help Lecuona. 

There is also Miguel Oliveira, who essentially swapped seats with Razgatlioglu, and filled the BMW vacancy. 

Those are the two favorites, but there is also Andrea Iannone and Sam Lowes, two quick riders on smaller Ducati teams. Jake Dixon is moving to World Superbike with Honda after racing in Moto2. It is a stretch, but Dixon is a contender. Stefano Manzi is moving up with Yamaha after winning the World Supersport title.

With how World Superbike has gone for the better part of the last decade, it is hard to see this being a slam dunk, but it is a possibility.

8. Three British riders finish in the championship top ten
In 2025, Alex and Sam Lowes were sixth and eighth in the championship respectively. Both are remaining with their respective teams, Bimota for Alex and Elf Marc VDS Racing Team for Sam. I think another Brit joins them in the championship top ten.

The leader is Jake Dixon. Dixon won seven times in his Moto2 career, and that included two finishes in the championship top five. It could be Tarran Mackenzie, who was struggled to finish 19th in the championship last year, but Mackenzie switched teams and manufacturers midseason, leaving the Petronas MIE Racing Honda Team to join MGM Bonovo Racing Ducati outfit, where Mackenzie will start the 2026 season. 

In those 12 races with MGM Bonovo, Mackenzie had nine finishes in points after having four in all the first 18 races. 

We have had at least three British riders in the World Superbike championship top ten as recently as 2022 when Jonathan Rea was third, Alex Lowes was sixth and Scott Redding was eighth,

 9. A World Supersport round will be swept by a rider that does not end up as champion
Last season, there were three instances where a rider swept a weekend in World Supersport. All three of those were from champion Stefano Manzi.

Manzi will not be back in 2026, and World Supersport is in the midst of a competition revival. Someone else will sweep a weekend, but that rider will not be fortunate to be champion. 

Prior to 2025, there have been four consecutive seasons where a non-champion swept a weekend. Last season was only the second time since doubleheader weekend were introduced in 2020 that it did not happen.

SuperMotocross
10. The Lawrence brothers will combine for at least 20 podium finishes in the Supercross season
Both Lawrence brothers were injured and missed most of the 2025 Supercross season. They returned for the Motocross season and smoked the field with Jett taking another championship while Hunter was second. 

If they are both healthy for the entire Supercross season, they could repeat that performance. It is asking a lot. Hunter has yet to have a clean Supercross season in the 450cc class. We know Jett is brilliant, but in his one full season of Supercross, he had his low moments. 

In 2024, Jett did have ten podium finishes, eight of which were victories. It will require Jett at least matching that output and Hunter doing the same for this prediction to be correct. 

11. Four of the championship top five in Supercross will be different from 2025
Both Lawrence brother is returning from an injury-abbreviated 2025 Supercross season. 

Eli Tomac is returning and he will be at KTM. Jorge Prado will be Tomac's teammate at KTM, along with Aaron Plessinger, as the Spaniard makes his second attempt at a full Supercross season. Jason Anderson is also returning and has moved to Suzuki. 

That is five notable riders returning from injury, and four you feel confident could crack the championship top five. 

We haven't even mentioned RJ Hampshire, who is moving up to the 450cc class and scheduled to be on the Husqvarna alongside Stewart. Hampshire was fifth in the 450cc Motocross season, but he suffered a broken scapula and ribs in a training accident during the offseason.

There will be a shakeup, but it will be a contentious battle. Cooper Webb is the defending champion and remains teammates with Justin Cooper. Chase Sexton made a late push for the title last year, and Sexton has now moved to Kawasaki. Malcolm Stewart is coming off his best season of his career and ended 2025 with a victory at the Paris Supercross event. Ken Roczen should be back, though he too missed races due to injury. However, missing the final two rounds did not cost Roczen fifth in the championship.

It is difficult to imagine it will be a straight line change with five guys in and five guys out. I cannot see either Lawrence brother missing. Tomac is a question mark, but he had finished in the Supercross championship top five for ten consecutive seasons prior to last year, and he was third in the Motocross championship. Prado could be a surprise, and Anderson is always suffocatingly consistent. 

We can at least feel confident that 2026 will not look identical to 2025.

12. Aaron Plessinger will not have the most third-place finishes in Supercross
Speaking of riders who were not in the top five of the Supercross championship last year, Plessinger was sixth, and he did win in Foxborough. However, one of the reasons Plessinger was sixth in the championship is he had the most third-place finishes in 2025. 

Four times was Plessinger the third-place finisher. Chase Sexton, Justin Cooper and Jason Anderson each had three third-place finishes. 

With the number of riders returning after missing most of the 2025 season, I don't see how Plessinger will finish third that many times. I am not sure he is going to be better than third among the KTM riders. He may get on the podium a few times, but I don't think it will be consistent enough to end up with the most third-place finishes for a second consecutive season.

NASCAR predictions, check. Motorcycle predictions, check. We get a little break, and soon we will be giving out some presents before resuming predictions. 


Friday, November 21, 2025

2025 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

With the MotoGP season concluding in Valencia on Sunday, the motorcycle season is effectively over... for now. There will be two-wheel action returning in the very near-future. It doesn't take long for that competition to return. It practically comes when the calendar flips.

Until then, let's take this moment to acknowledge the predictions made over a variety of categories of the two-wheel discipline.

MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez will reach 100 career pole positions
Correct!

On his way to his ninth world championship and first since 2019, Márquez won eight pole positions, giving him 102 in his career when the season was all said and done. The Catalan rider started on pole position in the first four races, setting him up nicely to hit the century mark at some point during this season. He would not win pole position for the next three rounds, but he then won pole position at Aragón and Mugello. Márquez reached the century mark within the first nine races. 

He won two more pole positions at Germany and Hungary, and he ended the season with most pole positions despite missing the final four races due to a collarbone fracture suffered during the Indonesian Grand Price after contact from Marco Bezzecchi. 

2. The "sprint champion" will score fewer than 150 points
Incorrect!

Marc Márquez won 14 sprint races on his own. That is 168 points. He didn't need to score a point in any other sprint race for this prediction to be incorrect. Márquez ended the season with 190 points, the most from sprint races. His brother Álex scored 158 points in sprint races.

Not only did the sprint champion score more than 150 points, but so did the sprint vice-champion. Just goes to show how wrong this prediction was.

3. On at least one occasion will there be three consecutive races with three different manufacturers victorious
Correct!

In 2024, Ducati won 19 races and Aprilia won once. 

In 2025, Ducati opened with five consecutive victories. Then in a stunning mixed conditions race, Johann Zarco won the French Grand Prix for LCR Honda. At the next race at Silverstone, Marco Bezzecchi took a stunning victory from tenth on the grid, ironically ahead of Zarco and Márquez, and Aprilia made it three different winning constructors in three races. 

Ducati then won the next 11 races. Aprilia won three of the final four, two at the hands of Bezzecchi. 

Somehow, this prediction turned out to be correct, and I doubt anyone expected Honda to be involved (Thanks for nothing, KTM).

4. The difference between the top two riders on Japanese bikes will be less than 50 points
Incorrect!

Despite Zarco's victory and some rather encouraging days for Honda, a Honda rider was not the best Japanese bike contestant in the 2025 season. That went to Yamaha's Fabio Quartararo, who scored 201 points and finished ninth in the championship. Quartararo had a slow, but improving start to his season, and in the fifth round from Jerez he started on pole position and finished second. It was the first of three consecutive pole positions the Frenchman would earn. 

However, he had three-race retirement run from Le Mans through Aragón, but then Quartararo had 13 consecutive finishes in the points before he crashed out of the Valencia finale. That consistency put a gap between Quartararo and the rest of the riders on Japanese bikes.

The next closest was fellow Frenchman Johann Zarco, who was 12th in the championship, but on 148 points, 53 points behind Quartararo!

Darn! So close! I don't know where this one got away from me. I am sure there are four races, grand prix and/or sprint, where Zarco could have been at least a spot better. 

5. David Alonso's longest winning streak is not greater than four races
Correct!

After smacking the competition silly in Moto3 in 2024 with 14 victories from 20 races, Alonso moved up to Moto2 and had humbling success against the bigger boys. He only won once, and that was at Hungary. In only five races did Alonso finish on the podium, and three of those were in the final four races.

The Colombian was ninth in the championship on 153 points.

6. Moto3 will be the closest championship margin among the top three classes
Incorrect!

Moto3 was the greatest margin between first and second in the championship for the second consecutive season! Much of that was down to Marc Márquez missing the final four rounds, allowing his brother Álex Márquez to finish 78 points back. However, Moto3 also had its champion-elect out for multiple races to end the season. 

In Moto3, José Antonio Rueda won the title on 365 points, but Rueda missed the final three races after he suffered a fractured hand and concussion from a collision with Swiss rider Noah Dettwiler on the sighting lap for the Malaysia race. Dettwiler suffered multiple cardiac arrests and open leg fracture as well as injuries to his lung and a removal of his spleen from that collision. 

With Rueda out, Ángel Piqueras ended the season 84 points off Rueda in second.

Moto2 ended up being the closest championship, and it was the only one that went undecided into the final round. Diogo Moreira scored 287 points, 30 more than Manuel González. 

World Superbike
7. Toprak Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds than he will in the first eight rounds
Correct!

Somehow, Razgatlioglu was better in 2025 than he was in 2024, and somehow, this prediction ended up coming true in the final race of the season. 

In the first eight rounds, Razgatlioglu had zero third-place finishes. He needed one third-place finish for this to come true. Entering the final race, race 36 of the season, he still had not finished third this season. 

What happened in the final race of the season?

Razgatlioglu ended up third behind Nicolò Bulega and Álvaro Bautista. In the final four rounds, Razgatlioglu had one third-place finish. In the first eight rounds, he had none. 

Count it!

8. At least two rounds will feature three different winners
Incorrect!

There were only three winners the entire season. Toprak Razgatliogu won 21 times and Nicolò Bulega won 14 times. Andrea Locatelli won one race, and it was a weekend when there were three different winners in each race. 

At Assen, Bulega won the first race, Razgatlioglu won the SuperPole race and Locatelli won the second race. 

Eight rounds saw a rider sweep the weekend. Five came at the hands of Razgatlioglu and three times it was Bulega.

Besides the Assen round, in the other three rounds, Razgatlioglu and Bulega were first and second. There wasn't even a case of, in a weekend where the two split the races, there was one race where someone else finished second and we were maybe a position away from this being correct. 

9. None of the top five riders in the championship miss a race
Incorrect!

This was looking good heading into the penultimate round of the season from Estoril. Each of the top five riders had started every race. Then Danilo Petrucci injured his hand in training and missed the final two rounds. Petrucci ended up fifth in the championship. 

It was inconsequential that Petrucci was 66 points clear of Alex Lowes in sixth, but Lowes missed the final two races of the Donington Park weekend. 

Supercross/Motocross
10. At least one Supercross podium will feature three riders that do not finish in the top three of the championship
Correct!

Somehow, this one was correct, but it was due to unfortuante circumstances. The top three finishers in the 2025 championship (Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton and Justin Cooper) combined for 29 out of a possible 51 podium finishes. Six riders outside the top three in the championship finished on the podium at some point over the 17 race season, but there was one race where none of the podium finishers ended up being top three championship finishers. 

It was the third round of the seaosn from Anaheim. Jett Lawrence won the race. Ken Roczen was second. Jason Anderson was third.

Lawrence tore his ACL in the next round from Glendale, ending his season. He ended up classified 18th in championship.

Roczen ended up suffering an ankle injury that took him out of the final two races of the season. This dropped Roczen to fifth in the championship, ten points behind Cooper. Roczen won at Daytona, and he had seven podium finishes in 2025. 

Anderson's season ended after the Birmingham round due to ongoing health concerns. Anderson did return for the Motocross season, but he ended his season after six rounds due to his health. 

Not really how I wished this prediction ended up being correct. I was hoping for a competitive season where fourth, seventh and eighth in the championship all had their best nights occur simultaneously.  

11. Jorge Prado will be the top finishing European rider in the Supercross championship
Incorrect!

As mentioned above, Ken Roczen was fifth in the championship, and the German rider was the best European of the 2025 season.

Prado ran the first two races and in qualifying for the third round from Anaheim, Prado dislocated his shoulder and surgery took him out of the remainder of the season. The Spaniard had finished 14th and 12th in the first two races. 

12. Neither Jett Lawrence nor Haiden Deegan will win SuperMotocross World Championships
Incorrect!

While Deegan did not win the SuperMotocross World Championship in the 250cc division as Jo Shimoda took the title with two victories over the three rounds, Jett Lawrence did win the SuperMotocross championship for the third consecutive year in the 450cc class. Lawrence went first, second, first over the three rounds from Charlotte, St. Louis and Las Vegas respectively. 

That is six-for-12, 50%. 

There are a few tough breaks. A few went my way that seemed unlikely. 

Win some, lose some, onto the next one.


Friday, January 10, 2025

2025 Supercross Season Preview

With the start of any New Year comes the start of the first major motorsports championship in the United States. This weekend the AMA Supercross season begins in a familiar place, Anaheim, California. 

There have been four different champions in the last four Supercross seasons. Supercross has not had five different champions in five consecutive seasons since an eight-season run of different title winners from 1979 to 1986. The top five from the 2024 championship are all past champions. There are plenty of capable riders competing, last season saw six different winners with ten different riders finishing on the podium. 

Honda has produced the last two champions after going 20 years without winning a title. The Japanese manufacturer has not won three consecutive Supercross championships since its nine-year run of dominance from 1989 to 1996. For the other manufacturers, it will have 17 races to prevent history being made for the first time in nearly 30 years. 

Schedule
After the Anaheim season opener this weekend, Supercross heads down to San Diego before returning to Anaheim on January 25 for the final California round of the season. 

The first trip outside of California will be the first Triple Crown round of the season in Glendale, Arizona on February 1. Supercross heads across the country to Tampa for the fifth round of the season the week after that. From Tampa, Supercross will head up to Detroit on February 15, which has an afternoon start of 3:00 p.m. Eastern. The criss-crossing nature of the 2025 Supercross season will continue with Arlington, Texas hosting the series on February 22, the second Triple Crown round of the season. 

March begins in Daytona for Bike Week on the first. Indianapolis follows on March 8, which leads into the one off-week for the series. 

The season resumes with the final Triple Crown round in Birmingham on March 22. Seattle has the 11th round on March 29. Following Seattle, Supercross will have an eastern swing starting in Foxborough, Massachusetts on April 5 with a slightly earlier start of 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The series heads south to Philadelphia for a 3:00 p.m. round on April 12. East Rutherford, New Jersey will also be at 3:00 p.m. ET on April 19. 

After Easter, Supercross returns to night races and it has its first new venue of the season. Pittsburgh's Acrisure Stadium will host Supercross for the first time on April 26. This will only be the third time Supercross has visited Pittsburgh and the first time since 1983 at Three Rivers Stadium. 

As has become a new tradition, Supercross' season ends in the Rocky Mountains. Denver hosts the penultimate round on May 3 with Salt Lake City again hosting the season finale on May 10.

Team Honda HRC Progressive
Jett Lawrence: #1 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2024: Lawrence won the Supercross championship and the SuperMotocross championship. In Supercross, the Australian won eight times and stood on the podium ten times from 17 races. He won six of ten races in Motocross before a thumb injury ended his season. Jett won two of three SuperMotocross races to win that title on tiebreaker over his brother Hunter. Jett, his brother Hunter and Kyle Webster combined to win Motocross des Nations for Australia, the first Motocross des Nations title for the country. 

What to expect in 2025: The best rider in the world is going to be the best rider in the world. Lawrence will be the man to beat. If he was not injured in the Motocross season he would have won that championship as well. Injuries do add up, but these are not going to slow Lawrence down at this point. He is bound to win seven or eight races. It will be up on the competition to keep him down. That is a mighty ask for the field.

Hunter Lawrence: #96 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2024: Lawrence failed to qualify for the first Anaheim race, but he ended up ninth in the championship with a pair of podium finishes, including a second to his brother in Denver. In the Motocross season, he won three times and he had 17 podium finishes but was second in the championship to Chase Sexton. He won the middle leg of the SuperMotocross playoffs, but Jett won the title on tiebreaker.

What to expect in 2025: Better than last year. The older Lawrence brother is due to win a round or two, maybe even three. Will it be enough to form some type of championship challenge? Possibly. Top five in the championship feels realistic for this Lawrence.  

Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing
Cooper Webb: #2 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2024: Four victories placed Webb second in the Supercross championship, 15 points behind Jett Lawrence. Webb had nine podium finishes. In the outdoor season, Webb only contested Unadilla. In the SMX playoffs, he finished tenth, fifth and fifth over the three races. 

What to expect in 2025: Webb gave Jett Lawrence a true fight during the 2024 season, but he could not quite keep up. Webb had his days, but he will need to go a step further and that could be a step too much. Webb will win a few races and be in the championship top five. 

Eli Tomac: #3 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2024: Tomac scored one victory and five runner-up finishes in Supercross. A Bennet fracture to his thumb caused him to miss the finale and he placed fourth in the championship. Tomac was back for the final two rounds of the Motocross season, where he went 4-11 and 4-3. He had finished of second, fourth and third in the SMX playoffs. Over the winter, Tomac won the FIM World Supercross championship.

What to expect in 2025: Looking back over the 2024 season, Tomac did better than first thought, but for as close as he was to some victories, one felt representative of what he deserved for his pace. For what will likely be his final act in Supercross, Tomac will want to end on a high. His day will come, but he will have some races where he is not quite in the picture. It could be boom or bust with either a podium result or a finish in the back half of the top ten. 

Christian Craig: #28 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2024: Craig ran with Husqvarna but only ran the first six Supercross races due to an elbow injury. His best finish was 12th. He ran the entire Motocross season and his best finish was seventh. He was 20th in the SMX playoffs.

What to expect in 2025: Craig has been brought in to help with the 250cc riders and he will get to run in the 450cc class as well. The key thing is to remain healthy because he has yet to complete a 450cc Supercross season in two tries. He should get some top ten results, but considering the riders Yamaha has, it will be tough to beat his teammates let alone the rest of the competition. 

Justin Cooper: #32 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2024: Ending the season on his highest note, Cooper was runner-up in the Salt Lake City season finale, placing him sixth in the Supercross championship and giving Yamaha three of the top six. He was fourth in the Motocross championship with six podium finishes and 14 top five finishes. A bad race in Texas torpedoed his SMX playoff result despite finishing sixth in both the other races.

What to expect in 2025: Cooper had a sneaky good season in 2024. It was not brilliant, but he had a few good days. He should be the third-best Yamaha on a regular basis, but there could be a few more days he is the second-best Yamaha and he could steal a victory. A few podium finishes would not be a surprise.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Chase Sexton: #4 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2024: Sexton won twice and had nine podium finishes on his way to third in the Supercross championship. In Motocross, he won 13 races and he had 19 podium finishes with his worst finish being sixth as he won the championship. In SMX, Sexton was third and second in the first two races but suffered a hand injury in the first moto of the Las Vegas finale, knocking him out of the competition.
 
What to expect in 2025: For all the concerns about Sexton's consistency, he was rather consistent in 2024, but he was not at the same high level in his first year with KTM. Things should be better in 2025. Sexton should be in a tight knot between Webb and Hunter Lawrence for just behind Jett Lawrence. A few victories, some podium finishes, and somewhere in the top five in the championship for Sexton. 

Aaron Plessinger: #7 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2024: Plessinger took a popular victory in San Diego, and he had three podium finishes and seven top five finishes from the first 12 races, but a practice accident in Foxborough ended his season with a fractured elbow. He was back for the Motocross season, contesting every race. There were no victories, but Plessinger did have 11 podium finishes and was third in the championship. He was fourth in the SMX playoffs.

What to expect in 2025: Good but not great. Plessinger can have his days and finish on the podium. No one would be surprised if he won again, but more often he will be just outside the top five. It will lead to a respectable championship finish somewhere in the top ten.

Monster Energy Kawasaki
Jason Anderson: #21 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2024: Fifth was the place for Anderson in 2024. He was fifth in both the Supercross and Motocross championships. In Supercross, he had four podium finishes and he was tied with Tomac on points but lost the tiebreaker. In Motocross, he had three podium finishes and 17 top five finishes. Anderson did not start the first SMX round from Charlotte, leaving him tenth in the final championship standings.

What to expect in 2025: We know who Anderson is as a rider. He will run right around fifth in almost every race. Sometimes it ends with a podium finish. Other times he will be sixth or seventh. There could be one bad race. There could be one strong day where he wins. All is on the table, except it will not be bad. 

Jorge Prado: #70 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2024: Prado won his second consecutive FIM Motocross World Championship as the Spaniard won 16 of 40 races and 11 of 20 rounds. Prado also ran the first four Supercross races last season. His best finish was seventh in San Francisco, where he also won a heat race.

What to expect in 2025: As we saw in his four Supercross races last year, Prado will be learning but he will have flashes. On talent alone, he should figure it out and be able to win a race and maybe two. There is a world where it clicks and he could be a stunning championship challenger. I expect a few tough races, but things clicking and he finishing ahead of Anderson in the championship.

Progressive Insurance ECSTAR Suzuki
Ken Roczen: #94 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2024: Roczen won in Glendale and he had six podium finishes, but an accident in Nashville ended his season, and left him seventh in the championship. He only contested Unadilla in the Motocross season before he finished sixth in SMX. Roczen was second to Eli Tomac in the FIM World Supercross championship.

What to expect in 2025: As we have seen with Roczen in recent seasons, he has been quick, can win races, but an injury has slowed him. Last year, it was either really good or bad. If he is healthy, top five of the championship is in play. It does feel like the window has closed for a championship.

Rockstar Energy Gas Gas Factory Racing
Justin Barcia: #51 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2024: After opening the season with only two top ten finishes in the first eight races, Barcia ended the Supercross season with eight top ten finishes in the final nine events, including three top five finishes in the final four races, lifting him to eighth in the championship. Knee injuries ended his Motocross season after five rounds despite having finished no worse than 11th. He missed the Charlotte SMX round and was ninth in that championship.

What to expect in 2025: Last season saw Barcia go winless and he dropped to eighth in the championship after finishing in the top five in each of the previous three seasons. I don't see it getting better. Barcia is good enough where he can put it together and compete with the big boys on a night, but that will not be a common occurrence. 

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Husqvarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2024: Stewart could not break into the top five last season and he took tenth in the championship despite his best finish being sixth. Outdoors, he did not score a top five finish until the antepenultimate race of the season at Budds Creek. Stewart was sixth in the Motocross championship. He was outside the top ten in two of the three SMX rounds, placing himself 17th.

What to expect in 2025: After looking like he was on the cusp of winning a race in 2022, missing the 2023 season due to injury was a setback. Husqvarna is not at its strongest. This season appears set to mirror 2024. A top five finish would not be a surprise, but do not expect those to be frequent. 

Phoenix Racing Honda
Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2024: Ferrandis had a good start to the season with six consecutive top ten finishes and seven top ten finishes in the first nine races. A lung infection kept him out of the next five races, but he ended the season with three top ten results on the spin. He was seventh in the Motocross championship with one podium finish, and 11th in SMX with his best finish being ninth.

What to expect in 2025: As a privateer rider, Ferrandis did rather well in 2024. We saw him run consistently in the top ten. That should continue. There could be a race where he is in the right spot and finishes in the top five or even sneaks on the podium. That is unlikely but not unthinkable.

Twisted Tea Suzuki presented by Progressive Insurance
Kyle Chisholm: #11 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2024: In Supercoss, Chisholm failed to make six A-Mains and his best finish was 13th on two occasions. In Motocross, he was 20th in the championship with his best finish being 15th. In SMX, he ended up 22nd out of 25 riders.

What to expect in 2025: Not much different from 2024. Maybe he makes a few more A-Mains, but just making the show is only a minor bump. Any finish in the top ten would be incredible. 

Colt Nichols: #12 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2024: Riding for Beta, Nichols joined for the final nine races. His best finish was 11th, but he never finished worse than 15th though he failed to make two A-Mains. Nichols was a wild card entry for the SMX playoffs with the Twisted Tea Suzuki team. He was ninth and tenth in the first two rounds before finishing 17th in Las Vegas.

What to expect in 2025: Nichols should have better days than his teammate. If he was pushing the top ten on the Beta, he should get some top ten finishes on the Suzuki. He could sneak into the championship top ten or be just on the wrong side of it. 

Liqui Moly Beta Racing
Mitchell Oldenburg #49 Beta 450 RX
What did he do in 2024: Oldenburg contested six races with his best finish being ninth in the Salt Lake City finale. He was fifth in the FIM World Supercross championship. 

What to expect in 2025: Beta is still behind the other manufacturers. There were some good days last year, but plenty of growing pains. Oldenberg did well in his handful of races on the Smartop MotoConcepts Honda. Any top ten finishes would be welcomed.  

Benny Bloss: #57 Beta 450 RX
What did he do in 2024: Developing the Beta, Bloss went from failing to qualify for the first two rounds to finishing tenth in two races, tenth in Daytona and eighth in Nashville. A collarbone fracture took him out of the final two races.

What to expect in 2025: Bloss got some impressive results on the Beta last year. I don't see much changing in 2025. There could be some top ten finishes, but not many. It will still be good to see and little victories for rider and manufacturer. 

FirePower Honda 
Shane McElrath: #12 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2024: McElrath ran Supercross with the Twisted Tea Suzuki team and he took a surprise fourth in muddy conditions in San Francisco. He was tenth at St. Louis and that was his only top ten results of the season as he was 13th in points. He ran the first eight rounds of Motocross with Suzuki before switching to the MaddParts.com Kawasaki Racing Team. He was 16th in the outdoor championship and 12th in the SMX playoffs. McElrath won the FIM World Supercross Championship in the SX2 class.

What to expect in 2025: FirePower had some good days with Dean Wilson last year, especially toward the end of the season, but those were still results fighting to crack the top ten. Things can improve and McElrath could still be 13th in the championship. 

Joey Savatgy: #17 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2024: Unable to compete in Supercross last year due to the delayed Triumph bike, Savatgy was sidelined until the 250cc Motocross season. He was 12th in the championship with three top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes. He joined FirePower Honda for the FIM World Supercross season, and he was third in the championship behind Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen.

What to expect in 2025: Results not as good as the FIM WSX season. He has taken privateer bikes and gotten good results with them before when he was with the Rocky Mountain KTM group. Results should not be that good, but he could pick up a few top ten results.

The first round of the 2025 AMA Supercross season from Anaheim will be at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday January 11, and can be seen on Peacock.