Thursday, November 19, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Autosport's 2020 Season

We are into the final few IndyCar Wrap-Ups for this season and we are now at the largest team on the IndyCar grid, Andretti Autosport. After absorbing the Harding Steinbrenner Racing operation, Andretti Autosport fielded five cars for 2020. Each driver had remained in the exact same seat he was in for the 2019 season. While there was almost no disruption from year to year, the team started slow and the results were tougher than usual to come by.

Colton Herta quickly became Andretti Autosport's leader

Colton Herta
Now officially under the Andretti Autosport banner, Herta showed no signs of growing pains in his sophomore season. After being masterful in a single-car operation, Herta quickly became the leader of the five-car Andretti program, which included two past Indianapolis 500 winners, a past champion and two of the most experienced drivers in IndyCar history.

What objectively was his best race?
Herta picked up his third career victory at the second Mid-Ohio race, where he started on pole position and led 57 of 75 laps and he led an Andretti Autosport 1-2-3 finish ahead of Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay. It was the first time the team swept the podium since the team's famous 1-2-3-4 finish at St. Petersburg in 2005. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is probably the second Mid-Ohio race, but I think the two Harvest Grand Prix races deserve a nod. In the first race, Herta led 29 laps and it felt like he was going to pull out a victory, but in the final stint, he did not get the best use out of the alternate tires, lost the lead to Josef Newgarden and slid back to fourth. 

However, the next day, Herta found the balance on the alternate tires and he challenged Will Power in the closing laps for the victory. Power held on, but Herta kept him honest and it was important to see Herta learn from the tribulations the day before. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Herta ended up 20th in the first Iowa race after contact with Rinus VeeKay when a restart was waved off. Herta climbed over the car of VeeKay and took notable air before landing on all four wheels. Both drivers were ok, but both were out of the race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
In the St. Petersburg season finale, Herta had a great chance at victory after Rossi spun out in turn three when he got into the marbles. This set up Herta to take the lead after the pit cycle. The problem was Herta dealt with overboost issues and it bogged him down on the restart. Álex Palou and Josef Newgarden both overtook Herta and a little later Herta locked up and got into the turn four tires.

He was able to reverse and continue the race, but a podium finish was gone and what could have been a victory ended up an 11th-place finish.

Colton Herta's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (421 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 110
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 6.214
Average Finish: 7.427

Alexander Rossi experienced just about everything but victory in 2020

Alexander Rossi
A championship hopeful for the last few seasons, Rossi took a few big blows early in the season and immediately put into question whether or not he could compete for the Astor Cup this year. Results remained inconsistent over the middle of the season with an unfortunate set of events at the Indianapolis 500 effectively taking Rossi out of contention. He ended the season strong, but he could not completely shake the hardship.

What objectively was his best race?
Rossi had two runner-up finishes, first to his teammate at Mid-Ohio and then to Josef Newgarden in the first Harvest Grand Prix race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is one of his most painful races: St. Petersburg. Rossi started second and controlled that race, taking the lead early when Will Power was having downshifting issues. Rossi was gone. No one was touching him and he was set to end this season with a victory. 

He had led 61 of 69 laps when he got into the marbles exiting turn three and spun out. It was the final nail in the coffin of a difficult season and Rossi ended up 21st instead of with silverware in hand. 

What objectively was his worst race?
The painful 27th-place finish at the Indianapolis 500 after a penalty for an unsafe release on the pit lane took him out of contention for victory and then led to a spin in turn two.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The only answer is Indianapolis, but there are a handful of races you can go with. 

Rossi made slight contact with Sato exiting his pit box and it landed him a penalty. He immediately went from second to outside the top twenty and pretty much out of contention for victory. Rossi had been Scott Dixon's equal all race and we were set for another late battle involving Rossi. When he was sent to the rear of the field, it felt like a futile effort and doomed to end in disaster, in a race where passing was extremely difficult. Rossi went for broke and ended up in the wall, a spotless Indianapolis 500 record tarnished, and one of the most breathtaking drivers to arrive at the 2.5-mile oval in the 21st century has to wait another year for his second triumph in IndyCar's grandest race. 

Rossi ended up ninth in the championship, but it could have been considerably greater considering all the breaks that went against him. The car wouldn't start at Texas and then when fired he had to start at the back and serve a penalty. Fuel pressure issues took him out of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis when he was in the top ten and could have battled for a top five. He was lost in the first Road America and he was run over before even taking the green flag in the first Gateway race, which basically took him out of contention in the second race that weekend. And then there was the finale and those tricky marbles.

It was not a championship season, but a break at Indianapolis and St. Petersburg and he is in the top five of the championship, perhaps even the best Andretti Autosport driver.

Alexander Rossi's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 9th (317 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 83
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 8.857
Average Finish: 12.142

Ryan Hunter-Reay remained in the top ten for another season

Ryan Hunter-Reay
Andretti Autosport's eldest statesman had a good year, but far from a great year. While Hunter-Reay had a few good days, a few disappointing days were sprinkled in. Despite his seniority in the team, Hunter-Reay was often not leading the Andretti Autosport charge, an unusual position for the 2012 IndyCar champion and 2014 Indianapolis 500 winner. He was able to hold onto a top ten championship position, but he was holding on for dear life.

What objectively was his best race?
Hunter-Reay rounded out the Andretti Autosport 1-2-3 finish in the second Mid-Ohio race. He had started eighth but worked his way into the top three.

What subjectively was his best race?
The entire Mid-Ohio weekend deserves a shoutout, because in race one, Hunter-Reay started second and finished fifth and he spent that entire race in the top five. The next day he had a smooth drive and deserved third. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Hunter-Reay had two finishes of 22nd. In the second Road America race, he made contact with Will Power and Graham Rahal in the first corner and his race was over. In the second Iowa race, he spun exiting the pit lane and his night was over.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is the entire Iowa weekend, because he had spins exiting the pit lane on both nights and it cost him better results than he ended up with. To make matters worse, Hunter-Reay was one of the best at Iowa only five years ago and he has not stood out there since.

This was not a spectacular season for Hunter-Reay. Frankly, it felt like a tipping point. He is about to turn 40 years old. He has gone winless for the second consecutive season and for the fourth time in the last five years. He didn't even have the heartbreaking race where he leads a good chunk of the race and then had the mechanical failure that only happens to Hunter-Reay take him out. 

There were weekends where was he just off. Iowa was bad. He was off in all three IMS road course races. The pandemic might have thrown him off. A few drivers had uncharacteristically rough seasons, see Rossi, but Hunter-Reay's results have been too wishy-washy over the last few seasons. 

I don't think his ability is completely gone, but the end is approaching.

Ryan Hunter-Reay's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (315 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 8.0
Average Finish: 11.5

Marco Andretti could not catch a break

Marco Andretti
Few drivers had a harder season than Andretti did in 2020. No matter how a race weekend started, something always seemed to trip up Andretti. If things were going well, he would get knocked back a few rungs. If things started poorly, they somehow ended up worse. Andretti had one of the highlights of the season and even that can hardly be viewed as a fond moment from this season.

What objectively was his best race?
Andretti's only top ten finish came in the second Iowa race and he only got tenth on the final lap from Tony Kanaan.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is actually a race where the finish doesn't show how well Andretti did. It is St. Petersburg. Andretti started 23rd, but was making moves up the order and drove into the top ten. He was set to finish seventh or eighth, his best result of the season, and then Takuma Sato got into Jack Harvey and Andretti and Andretti was taken out 26 laps away from the finish, a cruel end to a much crueler season. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Late in the first Harvest Grand Prix race, Andretti lost his engine while in 11th with six laps to go. With no other cars out of the race, he dropped from 11th and maybe sneaking into the top ten, down to 25th, dead-last.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Close your eyes and throw a dart at the wall because about 11 of 14 races fit this category. He ended up 20th or worse in nine of 14 races. He was behind Oliver Askew in the championship, who missed two races and ahead of Zach Veach, who missed the final three races, by only ten points. 

I think what is worst of all is even on the one day it appeared Andretti was going to be good, he was not a factor. He won pole position for the Indianapolis 500, didn't lead a lap and finished 13th and at no point looked to be a threat to lead laps. He slid out of the top five, was anonymous in seventh or eighth and then slipped out of the top ten. For a week, people bought into this being Andretti's best shot to get that historic victory for his family. His grandfather Mario drove the two-seater and his father Michael was a passenger. They had a photo-op moment during the pace laps. The buildup for this year's Indianapolis 500 was some sort of Andretti family redemption story and that storyline died in a matter of moments. 

Marco Andretti's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 20th (176 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 14.285
Average Finish: 19.285

Zach Veach's career is at a crossroads

Zach Veach
Entering a contract year, Veach knew results had to improve if he wanted a fourth season at Andretti Autosport. The first race went great. Every race from there on was a nightmare. With the results not turning around, Veach stepped away from the car with three races remaining.

What objectively was his best race?
The season opener at Texas saw Veach start fifth, only the second time he had started in the top five in his career, and he finished fourth, matching his career-best finish. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas. That is it. He had one good race all season.

What objectively was his worst race?
Veach burned out the clutch in the first Iowa race and was 23rd, dead-last with only 95 laps completed. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
After Texas, Veach had ten consecutive races where he started outside the top ten, nine of which were outside the top fifteen and he had ten consecutive finishes outside the top ten. It was clear Veach's time was running out at Andretti Autosport and after Mid-Ohio, his home race, he vacated the #26 Gainbridge Honda. 

Zach Veach's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (166 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 17
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 17.909
Average Finish: 17.09

For a part-timer, James Hinchcliffe was respectable

James Hinchcliffe
Originally set to run three races this season in a sixth Andretti car, Hinchcliffe ended up doubling his number of starts when he picked up the final three races in the #26 Gainbridge Honda. In what was a partial season, Hinchcliffe showed he is not close to being done from full-time competition, but there were a few moments that he probably wishes he had back.

What objectively was his best race?
Hinchcliffe was seventh in the Indianapolis 500, the best Andretti Autosport finisher in that race. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is St. Petersburg, even though the results does not show it. He qualified fourth and for a good portion of that race it looked like Andretti Autosport was set for another 1-2-3 finish with Rossi, Herta and Hinchcliffe. However... it did not end that way and we will get to that a little further below.

What objectively was his worst race?
Hinchcliffe ran the Texas season opener, but in an additional car for the team. He was 18th in a one-day show and after having no seat time leading up to the first race. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is St. Petersburg, because while it was setting up for a 1-2-3 Andretti Autosport finish, Rossi spun out when he was set to inherit the lead and under that caution Hinchcliffe lost it in the final corner, lurched forward and made contact with Jack Harvey. 

Hinchcliffe's possible podium finish was gone with the spin, the contact with Harvey took away any chance to recover and compete for a top five or top ten finish and he ended up 14th.

James Hinchcliffe's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 23rd (138 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.5
Average Finish: 12.833

An Early Look Ahead
Herta and Rossi will be back, but the other three seats remain unknown.

It is believed Hunter-Reay will return in the #28 Honda, though there has been no word on if DHL will return as the sponsor. Hinchcliffe is the leading favorite for the #26 Honda, though there has been no word on if Gainbridge will return as the sponsor. For some reason everyone expects Marco Andretti to walk away from Indycar in the near-future, even though he is only 33 years old and will not turn 34 years old until a week after next year's season opener at St. Petersburg. 

If any team felt off because of the pandemic, Andretti Autosport was off the most. Between Rossi's horrendous start, Hunter-Reay's lack of results and Veach and Andretti both being woefully behind, Andretti Autosport was down a cylinder for almost this entire season. 

Herta carried the team and his sophomore season ended up being better than his historic rookie campaign. He and Rossi could be the one-two punch that Andretti Autosport hasn't had since Dario Franchitti and Tony Kanaan were with the team. 

The pieces around Herta and Rossi are suspect. I think Hunter-Reay could have a few seasons left and could get some results, but I think his days as a championship contender are over. He can still be a capable driver, pick up a handful of top five finishes and finish in the top ten more times than not, but with his lack of victories it is hard to imagine he will be able to string together another season with three to five victories, seven to ten podium finishes and no problems. 

Hunter-Reay is still an asset to the team. We saw at St. Petersburg, where he went from 19th to fifth, that he can pick up results from behind, but we are watching the final days of his career. 

Veach had to go and I cannot figure out Andretti. Andretti has days where he is in the top ten in practice and looks competitive and then that pace disappears. I don't think this season is indicative of where he is at as a driver. It always seemed to be something different that would cost him. Between Mid-Ohio and the Harvest Grand Prix, he stared 11th, seventh, fifth and 12th. I don't know why the results didn't match in those cases and we already went over St. Petersburg, where Andretti was on fire until something out of his making took him out. Though it isn't all on him, something has to change in 2021 for Andretti. 

When the results were not coming in at the start of the season, I thought this team should cut down to four cars because five proved to be too much. I am not sure the team is thinking that way and maybe it can make five full-time entries work. 

I expect things to get better in 2021, mostly because of how hard Rossi's season was and Andretti cannot be that far off again. For Andretti Autosport, which is always included in IndyCar's "Big Three" with Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing, one victory in a season is not enough. It has also been eight years since the team's last championship. Rossi has had a few close calls with the championship, but it is time for either he or Herta to break the Scott Dixon/Josef Newgarden juggernaut.


Wednesday, November 18, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Meyer Shank Racing's 2020 Season

We are at our eighth IndyCar Wrap-Up and it is the second of two single-car teams. Meyer Shank Racing expanded to a full-time operation and after two years of testing the waters, the team was up to speed for the entire season. The team might not have picked up a victory or a top five finish, but it was the encouraging season the team was looking for.

Jack Harvey was one of the sleepers of the season

Jack Harvey
In his first full season, Harvey had plenty of promising days. A few races went against him, but more times than not, Harvey left a positive impression. He was one of the best qualifiers in IndyCar in 2020. Meyer Shank Racing should be proud of what it accomplished and the team is set up well for its second full season. 

What objectively was his best race?
Harvey ended up scoring a sixth-place finish in the second Harvest Grand Prix race after starting seventh.

What subjectively was his best race?
I am going to say his ninth-place finish in the Indianapolis 500 from 20th on the grid. Harvey has more experience at Indianapolis Motor Speedway than any other track on the IndyCar calendar, but the results were uninspiring from his first three starts in the Indianapolis 500. 

That changed this year. Harvey drove a smart race and his run went mostly unnoticed, but he ended up in the top ten and held on for his best finish in this race. 

He also had a great weekend at Iowa the round before, where he finished seventh in both races and ran in the top ten for almost the entirety of that weekend. Indianapolis was the only oval he and MSR had run in IndyCar prior to this year. For a first full-time year, it did remarkably well on ovals. It started slow at Texas, but the team quickly found it legs.

What objectively was his worst race?
An accident in the first Road America race after losing his brakes left him with a 23rd-place finish from that day. Harvey had been running the top five at the time of the incident.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is really that first four-race stretch that stands out for Harvey. Texas was the worst place the 2020 season could have started for MSR. It was a new track. Its only oval experience was Indianapolis. There was no testing, a quick two-hour practice and the team could not afford to tear up equipment on day one of the season. 

The Grand Prix of Indianapolis was a complete 180º swing for the team, with Harvey qualifying second, but a caution before the team could make a pit stop snuffed out possible podium finish and he was mired in traffic on his way to a 17th place finish.

Road America started with that accident and the second race started with Harvey being spun on lap one, dropping him from ninth on the grid to 18th an all he could manage was a 17th-place finish. 

Outside of that, MSR and Harvey was stout. Gateway was another difficult weekend, because Harvey probably should have had top ten finishes in both races, and at least a top five or podium result in race one. A rain shower in that first race caught Harvey out, took him out of contention at the front and dropped him to an 11th-place finish. The team could not make the pit strategy of stopping early in race two work in its favor, leaving with a 13th in race two.

Harvey had a strong weekend going at St. Petersburg and then had a handful of cars run into him, dropping him to a 19th-place finish.

Jack Harvey's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 15th (288 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 8.785
Average Finish: 12.285

An Early Look Ahead
For a single-car team, Meyer Shank Racing had a stellar first full season in IndyCar and the results on paper do not tell how competitive this group was. 

Harvey had a legitimate shot at podium finishes in a handful of races, including at Gateway. The qualifying pace was impressive. Two front row starts, five times starting in the top five and 11 times starting in the top ten with the exceptions being Texas, Indianapolis and Mid-Ohio where Harvey spun off, caused a red flag before even setting a lap and was forced to sit out the remainder of the session. He ended up ranked fifth in average starting position. The only drivers ahead of him were Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Ryan Hunter-Reay. The champion Scott Dixon was behind him. All the Ganassi drivers were behind him. Alexander Rossi was behind him. 

MSR and Harvey have always felt like the right match and they have a great thing going into 2021. Shank had set the bar pretty high in my mind before the season, expecting three podium finishes and finishing at least eighth in the championship. Though neither of those were met, the team is on the right path and I think next year Harvey and MSR can be competing for race victories. 

There are still going to be tough days and Penske, Ganassi and Andretti will continue fielding multiple cars. A championship run would be monumental, but this team could absolutely be competing for a top ten championship position. If the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, first Road America race and first Gateway race had gone in the team's favor, it probably has at least two podium finishes and three top five finishes. That's easily another 72 points for the team and 72 points would put Harvey up to seventh in the championship. A top ten championship result is not a crazy thought for this team in 2021. 

As for off-track business, the team announced a partnership with Liberty Media, which owns Formula One but also owns Sirius/XM, the team's sponsor. I doubt MSR is going to become some Formula One development team, but if Liberty Media's increased presence is something along the lines of Arrow's increased support of Schmidt Peterson Motorsports (minus the toxic work environment where drivers are treated worse than dogs), MSR could make a massive stride forward. 

The team will expand to two cars with Hélio Castroneves competing in six races (Barber, Long Beach, Indianapolis, the second IMS road course race, Portland and Laguna Seca). I think Castroneves is a short-term move, but Shank is doing this the right way. He isn't expanding just for the sake of expansion. Castroneves can provide a level of expertise that could take the team to a higher level. Castroneves will turn 46 years old next May. I don't think he is a four-year option, but he could be a two-year option. One year to set up the team, another to give it a full run of the season and come 2023 that second car could be ready to go with another talented driver.

Shank has a good eye for drivers. He picked up Harvey, he spotted Sam Hornish, Jr. all those years ago and put him in Atlantics. Justin Wilson, A.J. Allmendinger, Oswaldo Negri, Michael Valiante, Andy Lally, Katherine Legge, Mario Farnbacher, Álvaro Parente, Trent Hindman and Christina Nielsen have all driven for Shank in sports cars. Whomever Shank hires in the future, and he will hire drivers, will be up to the task. 

This is a good time to buy stock in MSR. I only expect things to get better in 2021.


Tuesday, November 17, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's 2020 Season

We have reached the second half of IndyCar Wrap-Ups and we move into the top ten of the championship. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing strengthened its grip on the fourth spot in the unofficial IndyCar teams' power rankings because for the second consecutive season the team put both its cars in the top ten of the championship and for the sixth consecutive season RLLR won a race. It just happened to be the biggest race of them all.  

Graham Rahal had a strong year and yet it was frustrating

Graham Rahal
In the four previous seasons, Rahal's championship position had dropped from the year prior and a fifth-year decline would mean he would drop out of the top ten in the championship for the first time since 2014. The good news is Rahal picked up the results. He had his most podium finishes and top five finishes in a season since 2017. It got him sixth in the championship, but his winless streak continues.

What objectively was his best race?
In the second race of the 2020 season, Rahal ended up finishing second in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Adopting the two-stop strategy, Rahal led 18 laps, but a caution in the middle of the race leveled the field. Scott Dixon was able to pull away on a three-stop strategy, but Rahal solidly finished in second.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is difficult because Rahal was stout this year. This was an appealing year and one about a dozen drivers in IndyCar would take over their own results, but the one thing that eludes Rahal is a strong race where he was in contention for victory. 

The only race that fits that description was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and one caution threw off the rhythm of the race. Once that caution came out there was no way Rahal was going to beat Dixon. If the race stays green, I think Rahal holds on and wins on a two-stop strategy. 

He only led 41 laps this season, 18 were in that IMS road course race and 13 of those came in the second Iowa race, where he went from 19th to third. Rahal caught a break in that Iowa race when he stopped prior to the caution for Ed Carpenter's accident, but he was moving forward the entire night. He also finished third in the Indianapolis 500, but that has to be somewhat painful because Sato won that race and while Rahal keeps being close to triumph, Sato pulls out victories, even when Rahal has been the better driver all season.

What objectively was his worst race?
In the second Road America race, Rahal was taken out in the first corner accident with Ryan Hunter-Reay and he ended up 23rd.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The entire Gateway weekend. 

Unlike Iowa, where Rahal was able to find something as the weekend went along and turned it into a third-place finish at the end of it all, the team conceded before the second race started and said it was using it as a 200-lap test session. 

Rahal retired in the first race after gearbox issues from 22nd on the grid and he started 23rd and finished 20th, two laps down in the second race. 

To make matters worse, his teammate Takuma Sato was on point for the entire Gateway weekend. Sato nearly pulled off victory in the first race, making a daring pass on the outside of Patricio O'Ward for second and then chasing down and keeping Scott Dixon honest only to finish second. Sato then started on pole position for the second Gateway race, led 66 laps, but drifted out of contention for the victory. With four laps to go, Sato brushed the wall while running seventh. He was able to continue and because of how late the caution occurred, it ended the race. All Sato lost was two spots and he ended up ninth. 

Graham Rahal's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (377 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 41
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.214
Average Finish: 9.714

Takuma Sato continues to improve

Takuma Sato
Sato's late bloomer career continues. At 43 years old, in his 11th IndyCar season, Sato picked up his career-best championship finish, ending up seventh. It was not all roses. He missed the season opener at Texas after a qualifying accident, but the results were good, and a second Indianapolis 500 victory was the cherry on top of this season. 

What objectively was his best race?
That would be Sato's second Indianapolis 500 victory. This one was after leading 27 of the final 44 laps when he passed Scott Dixon on a restart and then held him off during a pit cycle and in the closing charge to the line. When pseudo-teammate Spencer Pigot had his accident off of turn four with five laps to go, it sealed Sato a promotion in the pantheon of excellence.

What subjectively was his best race?
It has to be Indianapolis, though that first Gateway race deserves a mention. 

Sato stayed at the front for almost the entire Indianapolis 500. He might not have led a significant share of the laps, but he kept himself in it and pounced late. If the race had stayed green and the Pigot accident not happened, it could have come down to fuel mileage. Dixon's team thought Sato was going to be short. Sato's team claims it was going to be fine on fuel. Dixon tried to make a few moves and Sato held him off. 

Maybe Dixon could have made one more run if the caution does not come out, but Sato got the job done and caught a break. 

The following week we saw a repeat of the Indianapolis battle, except it was Dixon ahead and Sato charging him down on fresher tires, including a breathtaking pass on O'Ward for second. Dixon had the aero advantage and he held off Sato, but it did not come easy.

What objectively was his worst race?
Of the races Sato started, in the second Iowa race, Sato was 21st after trying to employ a two-stop strategy where he was one of the first cars to stopped. It worked in the first race from the 7/8-mile oval, but it did not pan out in race two.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Technically, Sato's worst race was the one he did not get to participate in, and that would be Texas. An accident in qualifying kept him from starting the race and it ended a streak of 169 consecutive starts. Sato had started every race in the 2010s and he missed the first race of the 2020s! 

Sato had been sixth in practice and his teammate Rahal qualified seventh. It could have been a good night for him to open the season and maybe he would have ended up sixth in the championship ahead of Rahal. 

Of the races he started, subjectively, I would say his worst races were Mid-Ohio, where he finished 17th and 18th. Sato has a few bugaboo tracks in his IndyCar career and Mid-Ohio is one of them. He has two top five finishes at the track, but his average finish is 15.9 in 12 starts and he has started 15th or worse in eight of those races. Ironically, he led 16 laps in the second Mid-Ohio race this year when he stayed out under the first caution after everyone else had stopped. He went as far as he could on fuel, but that alternate strategy earned him nothing more than an 18th-place finish after starting 22nd.

Mid-Ohio was a reverse of Gateway. In RLLR's backyard, Rahal was good, and Sato was bad. Rahal was fourth in both races and started eighth and 12th in those respective races. 

Takuma Sato's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (248 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 172
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 13.928
Average Finish: 11.307

An Early Look Ahead
Rahal and Sato will both return, and I think RLLR will be fine. 

This is fourth team if there is an IndyCar "Big Four." The truth is it is not a "Big Four" because RLLR has a lot it needs to accomplish to make it a four-horse race. RLLR is doing the right things having won a race in six consecutive seasons, but it needs to have both drivers winning races and both drivers winning multiple races and at least one driver contending for a championship.

Rahal got close to a title in 2015, but he has not been able to replicate that season. His results have been solid, and it is mind-boggling how Rahal has not been able to get a victory the last three seasons, but Sato has in each season since he rejoined the team in 2018. 

In 2020, Rahal beat Sato head-to-head in finishes nine to five, including ending the season with five consecutive top ten finishes while Sato had one in the final five races. In 2019, it was 12 to five in favor of Rahal. Two years ago, Rahal won the team battle 11 to 6. Overall, Rahal has the advantage 32 to 16 and yet Sato has won three races to Rahal's none! In the same time period, Rahal has 12 top five finishes, two more than Sato, and 32 top ten finishes, nine more than Sato. 

Two of Sato's victories are from him either pitting or not pitting on the right side of a caution, but he holds on for the victory in those cases. Rahal hasn't had those races fall his way and, in the races where he was at the front, he was just off enough that he cannot keep up with the big boys. 

This team either needs to find that extra two-tenths to be at the front and controlling races or it has to be a little more ruthless and take a fourth-place finish and turn it into a victory. RLLR is there. This isn't a team that has to tear anything down. It is knocking on the door and I don't think the team is going to take a step back in 2021. If RLLR falls back, it is because someone surpasses them.

If Rahal can keep up this form, a victory will eventually come. Sato seems to be good for a victory a season now. There is a 2021 season where the pieces fall right, each driver gets at least one victory and possibly each driver gets two victories, both drivers are in the top ten of the championship again and one is in the top five of the championship. A championship fight will require a little more muscle, but this team is the closest to a championship of those not name Penske, Ganassi and Andretti.

RLLR has a good thing going, and I do not think this team has to change anything any time soon. Sato is toward the end of his career, but as long as he continues this absurd improvement after the age of 40, the team is going to keep him. Sato is still streaky. His only top five finishes in 2020 were his Indianapolis 500 victory and his second at Gateway. The double points at Indianapolis gave Sato an extra three spots in the championship, but it was still a good year. Rahal has another 15 years in IndyCar if he wants it, and more victories are going to come.

This is a duo that works together. They were ninth and tenth in the championship last year and sixth and seventh this year. They complement each other better than almost any other set of teammates in the series. There is no need to change, and maybe they are due to both improve again in 2021. Another improvement, another Indianapolis 500 victory and a championship battle puts RLLR in IndyCar's first tier and it would not be a surprise if that happens.


Monday, November 16, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Should Romain Grosjean Come to IndyCar?

Lewis Hamilton clinched his seventh World Drivers' Championship with a superb victory in difficult conditions in Istanbul. Grip was hard to find in the dry, let alone the wet conditions in the first Turkish Grand Prix since 2011. Championships were claimed all over the globe, two in Spain, three in Bahrain, two in France and two in the United States. Sebring was 12 hours of chaos. The LMP1 era came to a close. The GTE class is on the verge of a disaster. This week, we look at a driver who will be leaving Formula One at the end of 2020 and is potentially making a continental change. We explore if it is the right decision. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Should Romain Grosjean Come to IndyCar?
After 11 years in Formula One, Romain Grosjean likely will be looking for a new series to call home in 2021, barring some unforeseen decision from a team principal. 

With Grosjean's Formula One career coming to an end, he is playing the field. After previously downplaying interest in IndyCar, the Frenchman has had a strong change of heart in the last few weeks ever since Haas announced it would not be retaining him and Grosjean has openly been looking for an IndyCar opportunity. 

Grosjean is only 34 years old with plenty of a career ahead of him. With Scott Dixon fresh off a championship at 40, Sébastien Bourdais a regular contender at 41, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Will Power each turning 40 this offseason, and Takuma Sato now a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner at 43, both coming after Sato hit 40 years old, Grosjean could have a lengthy and successful career in IndyCar. 

While his time in Formula One was not the most plentiful, Grosjean was respectable. Victory never came, but he stood on the podium ten times. The best he did in the championship was seventh. A decade ago, he was one of the best prospects in Formula One. He got tossed into Renault after the team's falling out with the Nelson Piquet, Jr., just when the Crashgate saga was beginning. He was out of the ride and it would take him three years to get back to Formula One with a detour to the FIA GT1 World Championship, Auto GP and a return to the GP2 Series in-between. 

For a moment, it appeared Grosjean's Formula One career was over in a blink, and yet it turned into a career that spanned a decade. He didn't do it with loads of money. In fact, he was the first driver Haas took a chance on when it entered the series. His presence on the IndyCar grid would only add to the series, not diminish it. 

However, is IndyCar the right series for Grosjean?

Unlike Formula One, Grosjean will now likely need to bring some funding to get a full-time ride. While he never ran for one of the top three teams in Formula One and is used to the midfield experience, IndyCar's midfield experience is quite different. The middle of IndyCar isn't some multi-million-dollar haven where the hospitality suite has luxurious furniture and all the fixings. Grosjean will have to get used to plastic folding chairs. 

IndyCar is a change on the track as well. Tire blankets aren't keeping the four corners warm. There are fewer driver aides, but that isn't necessarily better. I cannot guarantee he will like the brakes. There will not be race-to-race updates to improve the car. The car is the car, universal aero kit and all. A damper change could be made, but other than that any improve will have to come from driver feedback. 

You would think Grosjean is setup for the change. IndyCar is a step down technically speaking from Formula One. For everything Grosjean has seen at the highest level of motorsport, he should be able to step comfortably into IndyCar. But what if that isn't the case?

Grosjean's possible switch got me thinking about other recent Formula One drivers to come stateside and how they fared. The truth is not many Formula One drivers have made the switch in the 21st century. 

Nineteen drivers with a Formula One start have debuted in an American open-wheel series since 2000. Some of those include Timo Glock, who is remember for his time in Toyota, but Glock had one Formula One start before he competed in the 2005 Champ Car season, and Jean Alesi, who started the 2012 Indianapolis 500 in a feeble Lotus program that lasted all of nine laps. 

A few of those 19 drivers only sampled IndyCar, such as the likes of Mika Salo, Franck Montagny and Esteban Gutiérrez made four, three and seven starts respectively. Remember Alex Young and Antônio Pizzonia? Those two drivers count as a part of the 19 with four starts and five starts respectively. Fernando Alonso is also in that boat with only two Indianapolis 500 starts to his name. 

Two decades is quite a long time and the likes of Tora Takagi and Shinji Nakano count toward that total. No offense to either driver, but it is hard to compare the switch of drivers who competed in Formula One in the late 1990s to a driver leaving Formula One in 2020. Enrique Bernoldi also fits this description with his last Formula One start coming in 2002 before making his IndyCar debut six years later. 

Not many past Formula One drivers can say they made a career in IndyCar in the last two decades. As much as we sell IndyCar as a secondary option for the Formula One fallouts, this isn't the era of Emerson Fittipaldi, Teo Fabi, Roberto Guerrero, Maurício Gugelman, Eliseo Salazar, Eddie Cheever, Raul Boesel, Stefan Johansson and Nigel Mansell filling an IndyCar grid. 

For comparison, the 35 drivers that competed in the 2020 IndyCar season averaged 16.1714 Formula One starts, however, only six drivers have started a grand prix and that includes Fernando Alonso's 312 starts. If you remove Alonso, the average falls to 10.318 starts and if you only take the top 22 drivers, the average again falls to 7.47 starts.

In 1990, the top 35 drivers in CART average 15.257 Formula One starts with nine drivers having started a Formula One race. If you took the top 22 from 1990, the average goes up to 24.181 starts, and that is prior to Michael Andretti sampling of Formula One and Mansell's arrival. 

If you fast-forward to 1994, after Andretti runs with McLaren, Mansell is still in the series, and the likes of Gugelmin and Johansson have since joined CART, the average number of grand prix starts for the top 35 drivers is 26.257 with the top 22 averaging 35.772 grand prix starts. The number of drivers with a grand prix start remained the same at nine compared to the 1990 season.

If you looked just at the drivers with Formula One experience, 2020 holds up to 1990 even without Alonso. Sato, Rossi, Ericsson, Chilton and Bourdais averaged 62.25 starts while the nine drivers from 1990 averaged 53.4 starts. However, the nine drivers from 1994 averaged 91.9 grand prix starts. 

It is hard to judge how Grosjean will do because so few of his contemporaries have tried IndyCar. 

That trend has changed in recent seasons. Grosjean has raced against Max Chilton, Alexander Rossi and Marcus Ericsson in Formula One. All three have hung around in IndyCar and had various degrees of success. 

Rossi is a multi-time race winner, a yearly championship contender and one of the five best in IndyCar today. Ericsson is getting there after showing a few flashes of brilliance as a rookie. The Swede's sophomore season was much more encouraging. Chilton has had a few good days, but results have been harder to come by, though he remains one of the most consistent drivers in bringing the car home in one piece. 

Grosjean also raced against Rubens Barrichello and, though Barrichello only spent one season in IndyCar, he ran respectably. Barrichello did not come in and dominate IndyCar. There was a learning curve he had to face. He didn't get a top five finish until the 13th race of the season. His best finish was fourth at Sonoma. His only other top five was a fifth in Baltimore, but he picked up top ten finishes at Milwaukee and Iowa and was 11th in the Indianapolis 500. He was 12th in the championship with an average finish of 11.928. If funding had not been an issue, Barrichello could have returned and increased his competitiveness in 2013. 

Sato might be the best comparison for Grosjean, even though the two drivers just missed each other in Formula One. Sato has been in IndyCar for 11 seasons. He had plenty of bad days, but he has turned into a regular threat. He has six victories and, once again, two of those are Indianapolis 500 victories! Another is Gateway. Sato's best championship finish in Formula One was eighth and he had one podium finish. Though easily a second-tier driver in Formula One, Sato didn't just march into IndyCar and start winning races. In fact, 2020 saw him score his best IndyCar championship finish in seventh and that came with fewer victories, fewer podium finishes and fewer top five finishes than the year before. 

Justin Wilson might not have had a lengthy Formula One career, and he might have run in a different era compared to Grosjean, but the former Minardi and former Jaguar driver made 174 starts in IndyCar, 38th all-time in starts. Wilson had seven victories in his career, notably being responsible for Dale Coyne Racing's first victory after 25 years of waiting. He was in the top ten of 94 races and his average finish was 9.766.

While the number of comparable Formula One drivers is low, a few notable contemporaries from Grosjean's junior formula career took a crack at IndyCar. Grosjean and Charlie Kimball were teammates in Formula Three Euro Series in 2006. Kimball was ahead of Grosjean in the championship that year and even won a race at Zandvoort ahead Sebastian Vettel and Kazuki Nakajima. Since then, Kimball has gone on to make 155 IndyCar starts, won a race, picked up a half-dozen podium finishes and was ninth in the championship twice. 

Luca Filippi was one of Grosjean's rivals in GP2. Filippi and Grosjean were teammates at ART Grand Prix for the first five rounds of 2008. Filippi never got a shot at a full-time IndyCar ride, but he showed strong qualifying pace and picked up a runner-up finish in Toronto in 2015. Mike Conway overlapped with Grosjean in GP2 in 2008. Conway went on to become a master of IndyCar road courses, winning for Andretti Autosport, Dale Coyne Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing.

The first year in IndyCar will be the toughest. Grosjean will likely not be at Penske, Ganassi or Andretti. He likely wouldn't even land at a second-tier team of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing or Arrow McLaren SP, but IndyCar is setup where on the right day any team can have its moment. Most of the Formula One outcasts started at a lower team. Sato and Wilson started at KV Racing and Conquest Racing respectively. Ericsson spent a year at Schmidt Peterson Motorsports before the Ganassi opportunity opened up. But then you have Conway, who made it work wherever he went.

If Grosjean wants to be successful in IndyCar and winning races, he might have to make a two or three-year commitment. If he wants to be champion, it will require the rest of his career, easily the next decade at a minimum. The good news is IndyCar is flexible and Grosjean can pair sports car opportunities with a full-time IndyCar gig and there is a lengthy offseason for him to decompress if he needed it. 

This all also applies to Grosjean's Haas teammate, Kevin Magnussen. Magnussen is only 28 years old. He could put together a 200-plus start IndyCar career, be a frequent winner and possibly champion. He competed against the likes of Rossi, Chilton, Ericsson in Formula One and Felix Rosenqvist and Jack Harvey while developing in Europe. It is just a matter of Magnussen needing to tough out a year or two before something greater opens.

Given the right amount of time, Grosjean could be an IndyCar race winner. Dale Coyne Racing might not be the flashy team on paper, but it is an outfit where the Frenchman could achieve strong results. He could either make it work at DCR for two or three years or a strong year one could find himself moving to a larger organization immediately. 

There are not many open options this offseason. Grosjean could choose not to cross the Atlantic if he does not like his selection, but he is 34 years old. If it doesn't work out for 2021, he will have 2022. IndyCar is a welcoming option if Grosjean is a welcoming participant.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton, but did you know...

Joan Mir clinched the 2020 MotoGP championship with a seventh-place finish at Valencia.

The #7 Acura Team Penske Acura of Ricky Taylor and Hélio Castroneves clinched the IMSA Daytona Prototype international championship with an eighth-place finish at Sebring. It is Taylor's third championship and Castroneves' first championship.

The #86 Meyer Shank Racing Acura of Mario Farnbacher and Matt McMurry clinched the GT Daytona championship with a third-place finish at Sebring. It is Farnbacher's second consecutive championship in class and McMurry's second consecutive year with a championship after winning the LMP2 title last year.

The #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and José María López clinched the World Endurance LMP Drivers' Championship with its victory in the 8 Hours of Bahrain. 

The #95 Aston Martin of Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim clinched the World Endurance GTE Drivers' Championship with a fifth-place finish in Bahrain.

The #83 AF Corse Ferrari of Emmanuel Collard, Nicklas Nielsen and François Perrodo clinched the Endurance Trophy for GTE AM Drivers championship with a runner-up finish in Bahrain.

Alessandro Pier Guidi clinched the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion after his victory in the Circuit Paul Ricard 1000km driving the #51 AF Corse Ferrari with Tom Blomqvist and Côme Ledogar.

Timur Boguslavkiy clinched the GT World Challenge Europe championship with an 18th-place finish at Circuit Paul Ricard.

Yvan Ehrlacher clinched the World Touring Car Cup championship with two sixth-place finishes and a runner-up at Aragón. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about many champions, but did you know...

The #55 Mazda of Jonathan Bomarito, Harry Tincknell and Ryan Hunter-Reay won the 12 Hours of Sebring. The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Simon Trummer, Patrick Kelly and Scott Huffaker won in the LMP2 class. The #911 Porsche of Nick Tandy, Frédéric Makowiecki and Earl Bamber won in the GTLM class. The #16 Wright Motorsport Porsche of Patrick Long, Ryan Hardwick and Jan Heylen won in the GTD class.

Franco Morbidelli won the Valencian Community Grand Prix, his third victory of the season. Jorge Martín won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. Tony Arbolino won the Moto3 race, his first victory of the season.

The #38 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca-Gibson of Gabriel Aubry, Ho-Pin Tung and Will Stevens won in the LMP2 class at the 8 Hours of Bahrain. The #92 Porsche of Michael Christiansen and Kévin Estre won in GTE-Pro. The #56 Project 1 Porsche of Larry ten Voorde, Egidio Perfetti and Jörg Bergmeister won in GTE-Am.

Esteban Guerrieri, Yvan Muller and Santiago Urrutia split the WTCC races from Aragón. 

Tomoki Nojiri won the Super Formula race from Autopolis.

Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP concludes its 2020 season with its debut at Portimão.


Thursday, November 12, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: The Part-Timers' 2020 Seasons

The midway point of the IndyCar Wrap-Ups brings us to the part-time teams, and this was a difficult season for the part-time teams. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and DragonSpeed had each planned significant part-time schedules. D&R had planned on running four races and DragonSpeed was going to run five. Those plans didn't necessarily work out. D&R was able to run four races, but two were different from its original schedule. DragonSpeed made only one start and it wasn't even going to run that one race.

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
After spending the last six seasons as an Indianapolis 500-only entrant, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing had committed to an expanded program for 2020, originally planning on running St. Petersburg, the two Indianapolis races and Toronto. The pandemic shook up that plan, but the team did contest all four races held at Indianapolis this season.

It was a tough year for Sage Karam

Sage Karam
This was a little longer of a schedule for Karam. He got to run four races and for the first time he got to compete on the IMS road course. However, more racing did not lead to better results.

What objectively was his best race?
Karam had two finishes of 23rd, one in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. 

What subjectively was his best race?
None of Karam's four starts were all that great. He was lapped in all the races. He never started better than 21st. I am not sure what is better out of his two 23rd-place finishes, starting and finishing 23rd or qualifying 21st and then dropping two spots, one of the spots was a gift because Marco Andretti lost his engine late and was the only retirement, meaning Karam's day is artificially better than it is of minus-two spots on paper.

What objectively was his worst race?
Going along with his two finishes of 23rd, Karam had two finishes of 24th, one in the Indianapolis 500 and the other in the second Harvest Grand Prix race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
In the Indianapolis 500, Karam did go from 31st to 24th, but here is what happened to the ten cars behind him:

James Davison: Wheel catches on fire after four laps.
Marcus Ericsson: Accident
Dalton Kellett: Accident
Oliver Askew: Accident
Conor Daly: Accident
Álex Palou: Accident
Alexander Rossi: Accident
Ed Carpenter: Contact on lap one with Zach Veach damaged Carpenter's suspension and forced Carpenter to pit lane for repairs, but he continued in the race and finished 13 laps down.
Spencer Pigot: Accident with six laps to go while on the lead lap.

Karam was the last place finisher for all intended purposes. Worse yet, the Indianapolis 500 is the one race he has regularly done over the last five seasons. He had never run the IMS road course prior to this year and D&R had not run road course races since 2013. The struggles in those three races are understood. Karam has been running the Indianapolis 500 enough that he should do a little better than this. In his last six Indianapolis 500 starts, his average finish is 26.833 and he has not finished on the lead lap in any of those six starts.

Sage Karam's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 29th (32 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 24.25
Average Finish: 23.5

DragonSpeed
DragonSpeed had big plans for 2020 to run a handful of races. However, the pandemic significantly altered its season and it appeared the team was not going to contest any races this year. When there was a late scramble for a 33rd entry for the Indianapolis 500, DragonSpeed was there to save the day.

Ben Hanley came back and ran one more IndyCar race

Ben Hanley
After getting a taste of IndyCar last year, Hanley returned in DragonSpeed's late addition to the Indianapolis 500 entry list. Hanley had won two IMSA LMP2 races prior to his Indianapolis return, including a class victory in the 24 Hours of Daytona. 

What objectively was his best race?
Hanley went from 33rd on the grid to 23rd in the Indianapolis 500.

What subjectively was his best race?
The most important thing for Hanley was he saw the checkered flag. Yes, he was two laps down, but his only other oval start was the Indianapolis 500 the year before, and he dropped out of that race after 54 laps because of a driveshaft failure.

What objectively was his worst race?
Just to change this up, because Hanley only did one race, I think the worst part of DragonSpeed's program was the late notice it had to be the 33rd entry, and how behind the eight ball the team was, and that was not the team's fault. 

DragonSpeed's car was supposed to go to the Top Gun Racing outfit, which was supposed to be for RC Enerson. However, Top Gun Racing pulled out after it was announced spectators would not be allowed at this year's race. The scramble for the 33rd entry led to DragonSpeed piecing together an entry but missed the first two days of practice. 

The team didn't have to worry about being bumped, but it couldn't even do an Indianapolis 500 entry right because of the short notice. Again, it was not the team's fault. DragonSpeed did extraordinary well for the circumstance it was in.

What subjectively was his worst race?
This was supposed to be a big year for DragonSpeed, as it planned to enter five races, St. Petersburg, Long Beach, Indianapolis, Texas and Mid-Ohio. Unfortunately, for the second consecutive year, DragonSpeed's plans were significantly altered. Last year, the team did not compete after Indianapolis because of visa issues keeping crew members from traveling from Europe, who worked on the team's European Le Mans Series LMP2 program. 

I wanted to see what DragonSpeed could do, and I was excited that the team could have given at least one or two other drivers a shot. Hanley was only confirmed for St. Petersburg, and Hanley was going to have a few ELMS conflicts. I thought Colin Braun was a possible driver. 

We didn't get to see any of that, and we will not see that in 2021.

Ben Hanley's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 33rd (14 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 33.0
Average Finish: 23.0

An Early Look Ahead
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and Sage Karam are both suggesting they will divorce before 2021.

I think that might be best. Karam has to drive more than the Indianapolis 500. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing wants to return to full-time competition, but it is big step up from Indianapolis-only entry to full-time IndyCar. This is a much different IndyCar series than when D&R was last full-time, and it is another planet from when D&R regularly field two cars in the Indy Racing League days. 

Teams have gone from part-timer to full-timer in the last few seasons. Meyer Shank Racing has successfully made that transition and has run well. Harding Racing did it but required a lot of assistance and eventually absorption into Andretti Autosport. Carlin wasn't part-time, but it went from Indy Lights into IndyCar. For those three teams, there is also Juncos Racing, which dabbled in IndyCar but could not expand into a series regular despite Road to Indy success. 

In its current state, IndyCar is too big for D&R in D&R's current form. For D&R to be a full-time team, it kind of has to reshape what it is. MSR and Carlin were at least regular race teams. Harding Racing was an entirely new organization and nearly collapsed after its first full season. I know D&R has fielded rallycross teams since it last competed in IndyCar full-time, but D&R is closer to Harding than MSR and Carlin and even DragonSpeed. 

MSR has used partnerships, first with Andretti Autosport, then with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, and then back to Andretti, to acclimate to IndyCar. That could be D&R's way back into IndyCar. The Chevrolet options are Team Penske, Arrow McLaren SP, Ed Carpenter Racing, Carlin and A.J. Foyt Racing. The first two Chevrolet organizations are likely not interested in a partnership with a small team. The other three teams are small organizations without that many resources to properly aid a partnership. Maybe an ECR/D&R pairing could help both organizations, but that might sound great on paper and not work in practice. 

DragonSpeed is ending its IndyCar experimentation after two seasons and we never really got to see what this program could do.  

I liked that DragonSpeed was taking it slow and trying to run a part-time program, similar to what Meyer Shank Racing did. I liked that DragonSpeed planned to mix it up, running some road courses and a few ovals. I didn't think Hanley was the team's long-term answer as a driver, but he got a shot and did respectable for a man who was out of single-seater racing for nearly a decade. 

I was hopeful DragonSpeed could run St. Petersburg, Barber, Texas, Indianapolis, Road America and the IMS road course race with the NASCAR weekend in 2021 and get a true sample of the IndyCar season. I was hopeful the team would try a few different drivers. It is sad to see the team move on. 

DragonSpeed was trying to balance a European Le Mans Series program with IndyCar and have a European-based crew run an American program. That cost the team in 2019 because crew members had visa issues and cut its 2019 plans in half. The pandemic killed all regular trans-Atlantic travel and if it wasn't for a vacant 33rd spot on the Indianapolis 500 entry list, DragonSpeed was not going to run an IndyCar race in 2020. 

I wish DragonSpeed could have figured something out and put more roots in the ground here in the United States, but this is not a great time for expansion into any series. Mike Shank wanted to be in IndyCar in 2012 and he had to wait five years before he could make his first attempt as an Indianapolis one-off in partnership with Andretti Autosport. That could be DragonSpeed's future. Just because it did not work out this time doesn't mean the team will not consider a second attempt in the future. 

Losing DragonSpeed hurts, because Dreyer & Reinbold Racing is the last part-time team standing, and D&R is already questioning its future IndyCar involvement. IndyCar needs a few part-time teams to fill out the Indianapolis 500 entry list and occasionally show up for some other events, but they are becoming an endangered species and might not be able to survive in the current climate.


Wednesday, November 11, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2020 Season

The fifth IndyCar Wrap-Up takes us to Ed Carpenter Racing, which had one of its better seasons since Josef Newgarden left the organization after the 2016 season. The team picked up its first rookie of the year and even returned to the podium on a road course. However, the #20 Chevrolet continued to struggle, and the two-driver veteran combination could not compete with the newcomer.

This year's young flavor was Rinus VeeKay

Rinus VeeKay
After moving up from Indy Lights, VeeKay started with a horrid season opener at Texas, but things turned around quickly. He quickly became the leading rookie and never looked back. VeeKay picked up ECR's first podium finish on a road course since 2016 and he started on pole position.

What objectively was his best race?
VeeKay ended up third in the first Harvest Grand Prix race after starting on pole position. He led 15 laps and actually dropped to fourth before putting together a late charge to get the final podium position from Colton Herta, who was struggling on the alternate tires in the closing laps.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the first Harvest Grand Prix race. VeeKay didn't have the pace to be a race winner, but he spent the entire race in the top five and pulled out a podium finish against another fellow young star in Herta. 

We should also note VeeKay's Gateway weekend. He went from 14th to sixth in the first race, and in the second Gateway race, he went from 18th to fourth, including a daring pass on Herta late in the going. The team ran a great strategy that weekend.

What objectively was his worst race?
His first IndyCar race: 22nd at Texas after an accident on lap 37.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Texas was really bad. He had a practice accident early, which kept him from qualifying, and then he had his accident in the race after just one stint. A lot of people were believing VeeKay was going to be replaced after one weekend. He wasn't, fortunately for both him and ECR.

Indianapolis should also be noted because VeeKay was the one ECR car on point and qualified fourth. However, in the race, he botched a pit stop, drove into a crew member and it took him out of the fight. He went from a possible top ten to one-lap down in 20th. If it wasn't for all the other rookies having accident it would have cost VeeKay Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year.

Rinus VeeKay's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (289 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 15
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.928
Average Finish: 12.5

Ed Carpenter Racing was the bad portion of Daly's season

Conor Daly
While Daly was strong in the Carlin Chevrolet, things were not as close in the ECR entry. He did not pick up one top ten finish for ECR and he finished behind VeeKay in every one of his ECR starts. 

What objectively was his best race?
With Ed Carpenter Racing, Daly's best finish was 12th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and in the first Harvest Grand Prix race.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is a difficult question, because Daly's results with ECR were far from stellar. I would say the Grand Prix of Indianapolis because he was in top ten contention all race only to not have the grip on worn tires in the closing laps, leading him to drop to 12th.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500! Daly had an accident coming to a restart on lap 92. He spun exiting turn four and hit the interior barrier. The box score has Daly classified in 29th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Thirteenth in the first Mid-Ohio race because it was his best start on a road course all season from fourth on the grid. Over each stint he lost positions and ultimately finished 13th. It was a big chance for Daly to get his third consecutive top ten finish after scoring a pair at Gateway and he was lost. All the top eight finishers started in the top nine. The only other top ten starter to not finish in the top ten was Simon Pagenaud, who started tenth. Daly ended up finishing five spots behind VeeKay despite starting five spots ahead of him.

Conor Daly's 2020 Statistics with ECR
Championship Position: 17th (121 of 237 points with ECR)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 15.111
Average Finish: 17.555 

It was a tough season for Ed Carpenter

Ed Carpenter
Things started well at Texas for Carpenter, but as has become regular for him, the results quickly disappeared. Rarely was Carpenter a threat for a top ten finish let alone a victory and, unlike past seasons, the magic was not there at Indianapolis.

What objectively was his best race?
The first race of the year! Carpenter went from 13th to fifth at Texas.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Texas, because all the other races were dreadful.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500, where contact on lap one with Zach Veach damaged his suspension and took him out of contention immediately. The team repaired the car, but Carpenter finished 13 laps down in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis was bad across the board. Carpenter qualified 16th. He never showed that ECR pace we are accustomed to seeing. At no point was he a threat for victory. To have any chance of victory in the biggest race of the year erased after about a half-mile of racing is crushing. 

That is just one of many terrible days. He spun at Iowa exiting turn two. He was caught in the accident at the start of the first Gateway race and forced to use a backup car in the second Gateway race basically saw Carpenter run a 90-minute test session.

Ed Carpenter's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (81 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 16.333
Average Finish: 18.333 

An Early Look Ahead
ECR has found its new driver of the #21 Chevrolet in VeeKay. 

This is the best ECR has done since Josef Newgarden was with the team. All due respect to Spencer Pigot, who was in that car for a few seasons and had some good days, VeeKay showed a lot of potential this season and had at least four breakthrough races, while that breakthrough race never really came for Pigot. 

VeeKay will return for 2021. He could be there for another season after that, and then another team might snatch him up. He is only 20 years old and he will not turn 21 until the Friday before the Portland race next year, the penultimate race of the 2021 season. 

This was the seventh season ECR split the #20 Chevrolet between Carpenter on ovals and another driver on road/street courses, and for the seventh consecutive season I ask, what does ECR expect out of this entry? 

Does it just want race victories and nothing else or is it aiming to be as high as it possibly can be in the entrants' championship? 

Nothing has come close to that first season in 2014 when Carpenter won at Texas and Mike Conway won at Long Beach and Toronto. The two combined for the #20 Chevrolet to end up eighth in the entrants' championship. Since that season, the #20 Chevrolet has scored zero victories, three podium finishes and four top five finishes with five different drivers sharing the #20 Chevrolet with Carpenter. 

The only driver to have multiple seasons sharing the car with Carpenter was Pigot. The only driver responsible for a top five finish other than Carpenter in that entry is Luca Filippi, who was second in a CFH Racing 1-2 at Toronto behind Newgarden in 2015. 

I feel better about Daly returning than any of the other road/street course drivers before him, though Daly's results with ECR were disappointing this year. Daly turns 29 this December and has over 60 starts to his name. This was only his third full-time season in IndyCar, and he has competed in seven seasons. He has to know it is time for him to establish himself somewhere and get a team that is fully behind him if he wants to be a race winner and championship contender. 

It should be a reminder that one of Daly's teammates in Indy Lights in 2011 was Josef Newgarden. Newgarden has become a two-time IndyCar champion and regular race winner. Daly continues to struggle to find a full-time ride, but both were equals nine years ago. The difference is Newgarden won the Indy Lights title and got a great chance with Sarah Fisher and Wink Hartman. Daly was not running for the Indy Lights title, splitting his Indy Lights duties with a GP3 Series seat and pursuing a Formula One career until turning his focus to IndyCar in 2015. 

These are two careers that were at the same point in the journey nine years ago. They split off and perhaps if Daly had chosen the same route as Newgarden, it would be him at Team Penske or with another team consistently winning races. The talent is there. We have seen him take Dale Coyne Racing to the podium, score a top five with A.J. Foyt Racing and win a pole position and be a consistent top ten finisher with Carlin.

I am sure Daly would take the Carlin/ECR split again if offered, but this cannot be the long-term career move, especially if he wants to be champion. If Daly decides he needs one team to work with for a full season, ECR finds itself again having to fill the road/street course portion in the #20 entry and it has not had a good track record finding a competitive road/street course driver.

I don't expect much change from ECR in 2021. Daly's future is dependent on the Air Force sponsorship and the Air Force will decide on it during the middle of this month. 

If Daly moves, then Daly moves, we have seen ECR find another driver to fill the road/street course races and we have even seen Carpenter consider running that car only for himself at the oval races. ECR has long been the beloved underdog, but all things considered, it has been an underachiever considering all the praise it gets. It is time for a resurgence and becoming a regular mixer for race victories and top five finishes again.