Monday, August 31, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Inching Toward 2021 – IndyCar

This is the final day of August. I nailed the IndyCar picks for Gateway. IndyCar had another mess of a start and then had to sit through a delay because of a vehicle on a parade lap leaked fluid. We had another race end under caution. Elsewhere, Jimmie Johnson's final season could not be ending in a worse way. Spa-Francorchamps is not Ferrari friendly. Logan Sargeant is hanging on in the FIA Formula Three championship. Kody Swanson came back down to Earth. The European Le Mans Series raced at night in France. One man is on pace for a historic World Supersport season. Super Formula started its 2020 season. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

Inching Toward 2021 – IndyCar
How is September a day away already? 

We are nearly two-thirds of the way through this year... this year... this terrible year... and we are supposed to look ahead, even though there is no reason to believe it will be better. 

We have to look ahead, or at least prepare for the future. We need to lay out a plan, if it is subject to change. You need a base to work from and IndyCar hopes to lay its 2021 foundation within the next month. 

There was no expectation that the 2021 IndyCar season would look all that different from 2020. There is always a hope of one or two new or returning circuits, but at the start of 2020 no one expected a shakeup in the calendar for the following year. We would have been happy if the 17 races scheduled for this year simply carried over to the following year. 

Then the pandemic came, and the 2020 season has been far from planned. Long Beach, Barber, Austin, Richmond and Toronto were all cancelled. Mid-Ohio is currently postponed. St. Petersburg shifted to late-October and uncertainty remains over whether that race will occur.

I think we would all be happy if 2021 ended up being the 2020 season that didn't happen. We would all take normal at this point. 

At the start of this month, I threw out an optimistic hypothetical for the 2021 NASCAR schedule. Let's close the month doing the same with a hypothetical IndyCar season for next year. Hopefully, 2021 will not offer negative surprises. Hopefully, the events we are uncertain about do return. Hopefully, it could look something like this...

1. St. Petersburg - March 14
Instead of ending the season, St. Petersburg is back in its slot as the season opener in the middle of March.

2. Austin - March 28
The future of Austin is unclear, and I am not just talking for IndyCar but the track in and of itself. We aren't sure if the United States Grand Prix and MotoGP will return. We think so. We hope so. However, even if Formula One and MotoGP return doesn't mean IndyCar will. I think it will, although I am not sure IndyCar fits the business model. 

Austin needs money-making events that attract people from all across the country. IndyCar isn't that. IndyCar typically draws local crowds and we aren't sure the Austin-area can draw enough of a crowd to justify keeping IndyCar.

3. Barber - April 4
Easter falls on April 11, so that means a back-to-back with Austin and Barber. 

4. Long Beach - April 18
Long Beach has already announced its 2021 date. This isn't a hypothetical. This is the plan.

5. Grand Prix of Indianapolis - May 8
As much as some liked the Grand Prix of Indianapolis on Brickyard 400 weekend with NASCAR, there are better tracks for an IndyCar/NASCAR doubleheader than Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis provides a nice start to the month of May.

6. Indianapolis 500 - May 30
Unless Roger Penske enjoyed the late-August date more, I think the Indianapolis 500 will return to Memorial Day weekend.

7. Belle Isle - June 5
8. Belle Isle - June 6
As has been the case since 2012, Detroit follows Indianapolis and it will return as a doubleheader and likely be the only doubleheader on the calendar. 

9. Texas - June 12
No different than the last 24 years for IndyCar, a Saturday night in Texas and the NASCAR Truck Series on Friday night.

10. Road America - June 27 (Doubleheader with NASCAR)
Back in the NASCAR hypothetical, I laid out how this could work. The Grand National Series runs a 150-mile race on Saturday. IndyCar keeps its Sunday 11:30 a.m. local time start with no change to the race distance and a 50-lap Cup race could follow at 3:00 p.m. local time. 

11. Richmond - July 3
We finally get Richmond back and, because of the timing of the Road America race, this is on Independence Day weekend with a Saturday night race. Now that NASCAR isn't going to Daytona, and will actually be at Indianapolis, that window is open. Who would be against the Grand National Series race on the road course leading into IndyCar on the 0.75-mile oval? That sounds like a good night.

12. Toronto - July 11
Canada returns! And it stays in the middle of July.

13. Iowa - July 17 
No change here and it returns to being a 300-lap race.

14. Watkins Glen - August 8 (Doubleheader with NASCAR)
We need some type of surprise and this makes too much sense not to happen. 

Watkins Glen wants IndyCar back. IndyCar wants to return. Instead of struggling to find a weekend, include IndyCar in the NASCAR weekend. We already saw at Indianapolis this year an IndyCar race can start at high noon and a NASCAR race can follow. 

How could this weekend work? Friday is IndyCar practice the Grand National Series practices and qualifies. On Saturday, we get a Cup practice, IndyCar practice, Cup qualifying, Grand National Series race and IndyCar qualifying. On Sunday, IndyCar gets a warm-up at 9:00 a.m. and races at noon. The Cup race could follow at 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. 

Plus, this would force NASCAR to run the boot, who is against that?

This more likely will end up being IndyCar heading to a street race in Nashville, but let's dream a little bit. We can talk about Nashville later.

15. Mid-Ohio - August 22
Back on schedule and back to being a 90-lap race.

16. Gateway - August 28
Back on schedule and back to being a 248-lap, 500-kilometer race.

17. Portland - September 5
This is also assured to return. Portland signed an extension through 2023, and it found a good place on Labor Day weekend.

18. Laguna Seca - September 19
The season ends at Laguna Seca, a 90-lap race right at the end of summer and we can turn our focus to 2022.

This isn't spectacular, but we aren't looking for spectacular. We are looking for calm and comforting after this year. The IndyCar schedule as it was supposed to be at the start of 2020 is a good schedule. I think the IndyCar schedule is the Goldilocks-zone, not too long but not too short, just right. It leaves you wanting a little more but doesn't leave you feeling unsatisfied. 

It would be nice to have one or two more ovals and Watkins Glen and not have a six-month offseason, but 17 races or 18 races is just right. You don't want to get too much like Formula One. You don't want to hit 20 race weekends and keep going. You definitely don't want to be NASCAR. We should also remember IndyCar cannot afford to run much more than it does. This is the limit for the teams. They can possibly squeeze out another race or two, but an extra four races weekends are not practical in its current form. 

When looking to 2021, the pandemic will still be with us. This is not going away in the next four months. Returning to normal is further away than flipping the calendar to a New Year. We have had events with partial crowds in 2020, but most events have been behind closed doors and we have no clear idea when full attendance events can return. Does the 2021 schedule look like normal, or does it take into consideration the pandemic will still be here and restrictions will still be in place? 

Zandvoort has already said it would take a later date in the 2021 calendar in hopes it can be included with spectators in attendance. Formula One is a different animal to IndyCar. Formula One has its own issues, including having events globally in March and April when being a European-based series. Zandvoort can afford to be held in July, August or September because it would not be that difficult for the teams to go to Zandvoort after Silverstone or before Spa-Francorchamps. It is Melbourne, Shanghai and Hanoi that struggle to fit into a 2021 calendar. 

IndyCar does not have many events at the front of a calendar that are at risk. I guess you could say the first three races are the most at risk, but Long Beach isn't moving. We already saw the race could not be rescheduled for 2020. It will be April 18, 2021 or bust for Long Beach. 

After Long Beach, there is no event that could not be moved. Austin and Barber could go at the tail end of the season. St. Petersburg has already moved. I doubt the city would want that race moved to October again. 

I do not envision the 2021 IndyCar calendar having a later start and a more condensed June, July and August to accommodate all the events on weekends when they can open the gates to spectators and hopefully a capacity crowd. 

The 2021 IndyCar schedule will have to be flexible. If there is one thing we have taken away from 2020 is we must be flexible to dates changing, attendance allowance changing and so on. I hope IndyCar keeps that flexibility in mind. It cannot just put out a calendar, dust off its hands and think that is it. Every idle weekend must be a fall back in case a race has to be postponed. There should be designated makeup weekends for certain races that way the teams know if Barber cannot happen in April, it would take either an open week in August or September. The schedule has to be dynamic and there should be less scrambling in case of emergency next year. 

Hopefully, there will not be any emergencies in 2021, but the closer we get the more we have to prepare to repeat 2020.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden but did you know...

Lewis Hamilton won the Belgian Grand Prix, his fifth victory of 2020 and his 89th grand prix victory. 

Yuki Tsunoda and Robert Shwartzman split the Formula Two races from Spa-Francorchamps. Lirim Zindeli and Logan Sargeant split the Formula Three races. Sargeant holds a seven-point championship lead over Oscar Piastri

Devlin DeFrancesco won the Pro Mazda race from Gateway, his first career victory. 

William Byron won the NASCAR Cup Series race from Daytona, his first career victory. Justin Haley won the Grand National Series race, his second victory of the season. Sheldon Creed won the Truck race from Gateway, his third victory of the season.

The #22 United Autosport Oreca-Gibson of Filipe Albuquerque and Philip Hanson won the European Le Mans Series Le Castellett 240 from Circuit Paul Ricard, its second consecutive victory. The #8 Realteam Racing Ligier-Nissan of Esteban Garcia and David Droux won in the LMP3 class. The #55 Spirit of Race Ferrari of Duncan Cameron, Matt Griffin and Aaron Scott won in the GTE class.

Scott Redding won the first World Superbike race while Jonathan Rea won the next two from Aragón. Andrea Locatelli swept the World Supersport races and he has won all seven races this season.

Jamie Whincup won the first two Supercars races from Townsville with Scott McLaughlin won the third.

Ryō Hirakawa won the Super Formula race from Motegi, his second career victory after first came at Motegi last year.

The #93 Racers Edge Motorsports Acura of Trent Hindman and Shelby Blackstock swept the GT World Challenge America races from Road America. Michael Cooper won two of three GT4 America sprint races with Spencer Pumpelly winning the other. The #21 BimmerWorld BMW of Bill Auberlen and James Walker, the #21 Flying Lizard Motorsports Aston Martin of Michael Dinan and Robby Foley and the #71 Marco Polo Motorsports KTM of Mads Siljehaug and Nicolai Elghanayan split the GT4 America SprintX races.

Clint Vahsholtz won the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, his first overall Pikes Peak victory.

Coming Up This Weekend
Monza hosts the Italian Grand Prix. 
NASCAR has the Southern 500.
IMSA will have a six-hour race at Road Atlanta.
World Superbike remains in Aragón. 
Supercars remain in Townsville.
The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters head to Assen. 
GT World Challenge Europe sprint series will have a round at the Nürburgring.
World Rally Championship has its first round since March, and it will be in Estonia.
The Road to Indy Series will run on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course on September 3-4. Both series will run tripleheaders.