Many IndyCar teams have already sorted out their 2021 plans, but one has confirmed nothing, and we wait for Carlin to confirm its first driver let alone its entire lineup. We have an idea what we will see, but not enough to engrave it in stone.
We expect Carlin mainstay Max Chilton to return for his four seasons with the organization. After competing full-time and semi-regularly, we are not sure the extent of Chilton's role. In 2020, he ran all the road and street courses and Indianapolis. In place of Chilton, Conor Daly competed in the remaining oval races and made Carlin into a sleeper.
That entire dynamic could be blown up this season. We will preview this team as best we can knowing it could be thrown for a loop at any point over the two months between now and the Barber season opener.
2020 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Texas)
Poles: 1 (Iowa I)
Championship Finishes: 17th (Conor Daly - non-Indianapolis ovals only), 22nd (Max Chilton)
2021 Drivers:
Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
After stepping away from ovals in 2019, Chilton committed to the road and street courses in 2020 and was willing to attempt the Indianapolis 500 again. After all the schedule alterations, Chilton's schedule was set for nine races.
There was an encouraging start to the season with Chilton qualifying tenth for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The race went in a different direction, as he slid back to 16th. He ran two mundane races at Road America with finishes of 17th and 15th before taking a month off before his Indianapolis 500 return.
While the team won pole position at Iowa and had two encouraging races, speed was difficult to find at Indianapolis. He qualified 30th, but he stayed in the race and was fast enough to stay on the lead lap. He couldn't do much more than that and was 17th.
He returned at Mid-Ohio and qualified 12th in the first race but dropped to 16th. He went from 18th to 13th in the second Mid-Ohio race. A top ten finish came painfully close in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. After qualifying ninth, Chilton spent much of the race in tenth or on the cusp of tenth, but he finished 11th. The second race saw him slide back to familiar territory, 18th on the grid and 19th at the checkered flag.
For the St. Petersburg finale, he rounded out the grid in 24th position, but went forward with some help from strategy and attrition. He was one of the biggest movers in the race but ended up 12th and again shy of a top ten result.
Numbers to Remember:
100: Chilton completed 100% of his possible laps in 2020, 800 of 800 laps.
39: Consecutive races without a top ten finish
26: Consecutive starts running at the finish.
90.14: Percentage of races running at the finish in Chilton's IndyCar career (64 of 71 starts).
Predictions/Goals:
Doesn't Chilton just want a top ten finish? Something respectable that at least fills the stat sheet and he can brag about?
Chilton hasn't been poor, and you would think someone with his finishing record would have one day where he at least finishes tenth. IndyCar is littered with drivers who pull out a random top ten finish. He has his close calls, but this has to be the year it finally comes through.
From looking at Carlin's oval results, the speed is there. It hasn't translated equally to the road/street course schedule. This is a capable team and has made strides since its first season. I hope Carlin sticks with it because it is making ground. It might be taking longer than the team would have hoped, but it has a good thing going.
We aren't entirely sure of Carlin's 2021 plans. We expect Chilton to be back with a similar schedule as 2020, but with there being only four oval races, I would say he should just return to full-time. If he is running Indianapolis, then he shouldn't be that concerned about Gateway and he could probably make it through Texas. It is clear his oval ability is behind most. He failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 in 2019 and he was at the tail of the field in 2020. If there had been bumping, he likely would have been sweating it and forced the team to have gone more aggressive with its setup, which could have positioned him to fail to make the race in successive seasons.
It's ironic that a man's whose only Indy Lights victory was at Iowa; whose best IndyCar finish was fourth in the Indianapolis 500 and who has his top two starting positions in IndyCar come on oval is struggling with oval pace. It has just been the case for Chilton. It seems to be mental more than anything else.
Three races are a tough sell. With how Conor Daly has raced the last two years for this team, unless Chilton commits to a full season, they should bring Daly back. He made that team a serious contender and the team should not let that go. Daly has gotten Carlin closer to victory than any other driver in the team's three seasons. The oval pace shown suggests Carlin needs to enter two cars for Indianapolis, especially if Chilton does decide to run it. Chilton limits the team to a mid-pack result at Indianapolis, but Carlin can put together a car good enough for the top ten. Daly will be out of the mix because of his Ed Carpenter Racing commitments, but with the right driver Carlin could haves its best Indianapolis 500 in 2021.
One of the team's goal has to be returning to two full-time teams. That requires money and it is tougher to attract drivers during this time. We know the interest is there from last season. We knew Felipe Nasr was going to get a spin and Sérgio Sette Câmara was a rumored possibility. I think the one thing holding Carlin back is it hasn't been able to run two stable cars for each of the last two seasons. If this team can find that steady driver with steady sponsorship it could be to Chevrolet what Meyer Shank Racing has been to Honda.
What does Chilton need to do in 2021?
Get at least one top ten finish.
Qualify in the second round of qualifying at least once.
Finish ahead of his starting position in at least half his starts.
Complete as many laps as possible again.
What does Carlin need to do in 2021?
Get Conor Daly for the other three oval races if Chilton is not full-time.
If Daly is not available, call the likes of J.R. Hildebrand, Oliver Askew, Spencer Pigot or Carlos Muñoz for the ovals. I know Muñoz's career has been stunted because of lack of sponsorship but this is a funded car with Gallagher sponsorship for those races. Is there anyone better than Muñoz for this seat and a second ride at the Indianapolis 500? Someone needs to give Trevor Carlin Muñoz's number.
Begin the process of re-establishing a second full-time team.
Find one of the eight-dozen drivers with Carlin ties who can fill that seat and overachieve.
The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener.
