We are reaching the midway point of the IndyCar Team Previews and it is onto the fourth-best team in IndyCar: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. RLLR put both drivers in the top ten of the championship. The team won a race for a sixth consecutive season and it won the Indianapolis 500 for the second time in team history.
Graham Rahal was the top RLLR driver in the championship in sixth and he picked up three podium finishes. Takuma Sato was seventh in the championship, his best championship finish in IndyCar and he won the Indianapolis 500 for the second time in four years. For the fourth consecutive season, RLLR will keep what is working for them with Rahal and Sato both returning for 2021.
2020 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Season Review
Wins: 1 (Indianapolis 500)
Poles: 1 (Gateway II)
Championship Finishes: 6th (Graham Rahal), 7th (Takuma Sato)
2021 Drivers:
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda
The season did not start on a great note for Rahal, as an electrical issue kept him from rolling off on the grid at Texas and once his car was started, he was forced to serve a penalty for receiving work prior to the start of the race. This dropped him off the lead lap immediately and down to 17th when the checkered flag came out.
On a two-stop strategy for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Rahal found himself in position for victory and he led 18 laps, but a mid-race caution allowed Scott Dixon to come out on top. Rahal was able to manage a runner-up finish. He had another strong run at Road America, finishing seventh in race one. In race two, he was caught in a first lap incident when Will Power knocked him off the course exiting turn three.
He qualified at the rear of both Iowa races, but gained ground each night, going from 21st to 12th on Friday night and 19th to third in the Saturday night race. At Indianapolis, he probably had his best 500-mile race, going from eighth to third, but the glory went to his teammate. Gateway was a letdown, with two horrible days. The pace was not in the car and gearbox failure ended his first race early. In the second race, the team decided to use it as a test session. He ended up two laps down and was 20th, up three spots from his starting spot.
Home again approved to be a comfort for Rahal, as he picked up a pair of fourth place finishes at Mid-Ohio. He followed that up with a pair of sevenths at the Harvest Grand Prix. St. Petersburg started off poorly with a 17th starting position, but he found himself in ninth at the final checkered flag of the season.
Numbers to Remember:
57: Starts since his last victory at Belle Isle in 2017.
14: Consecutive seasons with at least one lap led, every year of Rahal's career.
1: Season where Rahal has led 100 laps or more (110 in 2017).
6.5: Average championship finish over the last six seasons.
13.125: Average championship finish over Rahal's first eight seasons.
Predictions/Goals:
After watching the last few seasons, I feel entirely comfortable saying Rahal will end up between sixth and tenth in the championship because that is where RLLR is at as a team. That team will put both car in the top ten of the championship and no one will dismiss it. Rahal is a top ten driver and RLLR is the fourth-best team in IndyCar.
That doesn't mean Rahal can't do better. I think he can, and I think he will. He should have at least one victory from the last three years at a minimum. He probably should have had two or three victories. The pace is there, but things haven't clicked to get him back on the top step of the podium.
He is due for that breakthrough. We haven't seen a repeat of 2015, where he was a championship-contender and deservedly so. Rahal's consistency could lift him to where one or two victories is all he needs to be in the championship conversation. As we have seen with his teammate, if he times those victories right and one of them happens to be a double points race, like the Indianapolis 500, that can get you an extra two or three positions in the championship.
He will be a top ten driver, but can he break into the top five again? He can do it, but he has got to capitalize on his best days. He needs to win a Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He needs to take a car that is fourth on the grid and pull it up to first. He needs a dominant weekend where everyone is chasing him. Most importantly, on a weekend where RLLR shows both its cars are contenders, Rahal must be the leading car. Too often when both RLLR cars are in the top five, Rahal is losing the team battle.
What does Rahal need to do in 2021?
Win at least one race, preferably two.
Minimize the bad days.
Lead 100 laps or more.
Qualify more in the top five.
Takuma Sato - #30 Panasonic/Mi-Jack Honda
Rahal might have had a disappointing season opener, but at least he got to race at Texas. Sato spun while on his qualifying run. Because of the one-day show format, Sato's team was unable to repair the car in time for the start, meaning for the first time in his IndyCar career, Sato missed a race. He had started every race of the 2010s but would miss the first race of the 2020s.
He would string together four consecutive top ten finishes, but those were all nondescripts races, a run from 17th to tenth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, 15th to ninth and 12th to eighth at Road America and he actually fell from sixth to tenth in the first Iowa race. He tried to stop early and go long on his stints in the second Iowa race and it backfired, leaving him with a 21st-place finish.
Indianapolis might have been his best race in IndyCar. He qualified third and he spent almost the entire race in the top five. Sato paced himself. He did not make any aggressive moves, but struck late, jumping Scott Dixon through pit cycle. He controlled the final stages of the race and successfully defended a few of Dixon's attempts for the top spot. When Spencer Pigot spun exiting turn four, Sato was in the clear and took his second Indianapolis 500 victory.
The momentum continued into Gateway and he set himself up to have short final stint to the checkered flag in race one. This allowed him to claw back the deficit to the leaders and Sato made a brave pass on the outside of Patricio O'Ward for second entering turn one. He caught Dixon, but this time Dixon held on and took the victory with Sato in second. In race two, Sato again was in the top ten, but brushed the wall late to bring out a caution. He would still limp home in ninth.
The season ended on a down note. Mid-Ohio continued to be one of his worst tracks, with finishes of 17th and 18th. He was 18th and 14th at the Harvest Grand Prix and ended the season with a top ten finish at St. Petersburg, but like the start of the season it was a nondescript tenth-place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
208: Oval points in 2020, third-most despite not starting the Texas race.
3: Top ten championship finishes in the last four seasons.
0: Top ten championship finishes in the prior seven seasons.
4: Consecutive seasons with a victory.
4: Drivers have won a race in each of the last four seasons (Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Will Power and Sato).
Predictions/Goals:
Ever since Sato turned 40 years old, I have written something along the lines of "Sato is who he is, and he isn't going to win a championship." Ever since he has turned 40, Sato has become a better driver. He doesn't tear up equipment at the same rate he once did. He has found a balance between his speed and his aggression. It might be too late for that balance to lead to a championship, but it does regularly get him a victory and a top ten championship finish.
His problem now is there are places he just hasn't figured out and I doubt he ever will. Mid-Ohio is his bogey track. In 12 starts, his average finish is 15.9. He has finished outside the top fifteen in eight of those races. His one top five was in 2011. Though he has shown speed a Texas, the results do not match, with only three top ten finishes in 11 starts and an average finish of 13.4. He has finished 20th or worse in seven of 12 Toronto starts.
Combine those tracks with his inevitable slump and he is almost limited to finishing seventh or eighth in the championship each year. His Indianapolis 500 victory inflated his 2020 championship position. If Indianapolis was not double points, he would have been 11th in the championship. He never ends seasons strong. Once we get ten or 11 races in, all his good days are gone. I know he has won Gateway and Portland when they were in the final leg of the season, but historically, he ends a year with four or five finishes outside the top ten.
I don't see that changing. We can pencil Sato down for seven or eight top ten finishes, but then we have to accept there are going to be nine or tenth races where he is going to be stuck in 14th or he gets into the barrier and finishes 22nd. He can squeak out top ten championship finishes, but he is doing it on a thread. One result takes him from a career-best season to middle of the pack.
What does Sato need to do in 2021?
End the season with at least three top ten finishes from five races.
Get another victory and extend his streak to five consecutive years.
Finish in the top ten at Mid-Ohio.
Finish ahead of his teammate in the championship.
The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener.
