Another February takes us to Daytona for the start of the NASCAR Cup Series season, but 2021 will be a different trip than previous Cup seasons.
For starters, Speedweeks has been condensed to one week. The Clash will be tonight on the Daytona road course with Daytona 500 qualifying tomorrow and the Daytona 500 qualifying races taking place on Thursday before the 63rd Daytona 500 on Sunday.
Since we are still in a pandemic, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series calendar has already seen one amendment. Fontana was dropped and in its place the Daytona road course will take over the second spot in the 36-race season. The Daytona road course hosted its first Cup race last August in place of Watkins Glen.
After the Daytona road course, the season looks fairly familiar. Homestead moves to the third race of the season before the Western swing in March with Las Vegas and Phoenix. Atlanta will be the first race of spring and the Bristol dirt race closes out March and is the final race before the Easter break.
Martinsville is the first night race of the season on Saturday April 10 before Richmond eight days later. Talladega and Kansas follow with a return of the spring Darlington race set for May 9. Dover's only race will be May 16 and the inaugural race at Circuit of the Americas in Austin will be on May 23. Charlotte hosts the Coca-Cola 600 again on Memorial Day weekend.
Sonoma is the first race of June and the following week, on June 13, Texas will host the All-Star Race for the first time.
The second new track on the schedule will be Nashville SuperSpeedway on June 20th with the Pocono doubleheader returning for the second consecutive year the following weekend. For the first time since August 12, 1956, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Road America and this year's race will be on July 4. NASCAR returns to Atlanta on July 11 to try see how many drivers suffer heat stroke. Atlanta has two races for the first time since 2010. Loudon will be on July 18, the final round before the Olympic break.
After the Olympics, NASCAR will run successive road course races. First will be Watkins Glen on August 8 and then the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course will follow. Michigan has only one race this year and it is the penultimate regular season race on August 22 with Daytona closing out the regular season on August 28.
The Southern 500 opens the playoffs on September 5 with Richmond and Bristol rounding out round one. Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval make up round two. Texas will leadoff the semifinal round ahead of Kansas and Martinsville. Phoenix will host the season finale on November 7.
Along with a new schedule, there are a few new teams and a few drivers in different seats. We will preview this season going over each entry for this year's Daytona 500 and weighing that driver's playoff chances as well as list where that driver is most likely to find victory lane.
Chartered Teams
Quin Houff - #00 Mane 'n Tail Chevrolet
Team: StarCom Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Same as last year. It is not going to happen.
2020 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Same as last year. It is not going to happen.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Houff had three lead lap finishes in 2020: Michigan, Talladega and the Charlotte roval. To win, one must finish on the lead lap, so one of those three.
Kurt Busch - #1 Monster Energy/Gearwrench Chevrolet
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch has made the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons. He has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. He has scored at least 15 top ten finishes in six consecutive seasons. He does enough to make it every year, but he is caught between round of 12 and round of eight material. He made the round of eight last year after winning at Las Vegas. He also hasn't won multiple races in a season since 2015. He has not won three races in a season since 2005. Since his championship in 2004, Busch's only other top five championship finish was fourth in 2009. He will be somewhere between seventh and 13th in the championship, constantly good but never quite great.
2020 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch has made the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons. He has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. He has scored at least 15 top ten finishes in six consecutive seasons. He does enough to make it every year, but he is caught between round of 12 and round of eight material. He made the round of eight last year after winning at Las Vegas. He also hasn't won multiple races in a season since 2015. He has not won three races in a season since 2005. Since his championship in 2004, Busch's only other top five championship finish was fourth in 2009. He will be somewhere between seventh and 13th in the championship, constantly good but never quite great.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch's last 13 victories have come at 13 different tracks and that dates back to 2009. His streak goes Texas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sonoma, Dover, Martinsville, Richmond, Michigan, Pocono, Daytona, Bristol, Kentucky and Las Vegas. It almost lines up that the most likely place for victory is either a place he hasn't won at before or hasn't won at in a while. There are plenty of new tracks this year for Busch to choose from.
Brad Keselowski - #2 Discount Tire/AutoTrader/MoneyLion/Keystone Light Ford
Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Keselowski will be there; it is just a matter of how far he will go. Last year, he was a finalist. The year before that he was bounced in the round of 12. He has won at least three races in five consecutive seasons, but only twice has he made the championship four. He has only three playoff race victories in that time. His seasons are front loaded with regular season success that does not carry over into the final months of the season. If he can win a few races later in the season, perhaps he can pull out a second championship, but until then you can pencil him in for somewhere between fifth and tenth in the championship.
2020 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Keselowski will be there; it is just a matter of how far he will go. Last year, he was a finalist. The year before that he was bounced in the round of 12. He has won at least three races in five consecutive seasons, but only twice has he made the championship four. He has only three playoff race victories in that time. His seasons are front loaded with regular season success that does not carry over into the final months of the season. If he can win a few races later in the season, perhaps he can pull out a second championship, but until then you can pencil him in for somewhere between fifth and tenth in the championship.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Three of Keselowski's four victories came at high horsepower, low downforce racetracks. Any short track will do.
Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/Breztri Aerosphere/BetMGM Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon made it last year after a fuel-only pit stop was the right call at Texas. He also had a stellar Southern 500 and Richmond playoff race to get out of round one but was eliminated after a woeful round two. He did not finish in the top ten in any of the final eight races of the season, but he had three two 11th-place finishes and two 12th-place finishes. Dillon did not show that kind of pace over the first 26 races of the season. Yet, he found that next gear in the final ten. I don't believe he can keep that up. He could edge his way into the top 16 on points, but I don't see him breaking into that next tier.
2020 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon made it last year after a fuel-only pit stop was the right call at Texas. He also had a stellar Southern 500 and Richmond playoff race to get out of round one but was eliminated after a woeful round two. He did not finish in the top ten in any of the final eight races of the season, but he had three two 11th-place finishes and two 12th-place finishes. Dillon did not show that kind of pace over the first 26 races of the season. Yet, he found that next gear in the final ten. I don't believe he can keep that up. He could edge his way into the top 16 on points, but I don't see him breaking into that next tier.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: That Richmond race came out of nowhere last year and he very well could have won it. He will get two cracks at Richmond in 2021.
Kevin Harvick - #4 Busch/Mobil 1/Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Harvick will be there and he will be a championship-contender. It is crushing that two poor races at Texas and Martinsville overshadowed a nine-victory season where Harvick completed all but three laps. It was a championship season that got away from him. Nine victories will be hard to replicate, but you don't need nine victories to be champion in this format. You can get away with five timely victories. He will in the thick of it again and feel confident that the misfortune of 2020 will not catch him again at the end of 2021.
2020 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Harvick will be there and he will be a championship-contender. It is crushing that two poor races at Texas and Martinsville overshadowed a nine-victory season where Harvick completed all but three laps. It was a championship season that got away from him. Nine victories will be hard to replicate, but you don't need nine victories to be champion in this format. You can get away with five timely victories. He will in the thick of it again and feel confident that the misfortune of 2020 will not catch him again at the end of 2021.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Harvick has won the last three races at Michigan, two of the last three years at Loudon, two of the last three years at Atlanta, two of the last three years at Dover, two of the last three Darlington races and three of the last four years at Texas.
Kyle Larson - #5 NationsGuard/Cincinnati/Freightliner Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 34th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Larson returns from his suspension after using a racial slur while competing in an iRacing event. During his suspension, Larson completed his sensitivity training, but also spent additional time working with former United States men's national team defender Tony Sanneh and Sanneh's foundation as well as Olympic gold medalist Jackie Joyner-Kersee to further his knowledge and participate in the community. He did compete in 2020, winning over 40 dirt races and he started 2021 with another Chili Bowl victory. Larson will have every pair of eyes on him and his dirt track success is one thing, but that doesn't mean he will jump right into a Cup car and pick up where he left off. He is with one of the best teams on the grid. I think he will win at least one or two races. After all, this is an audition in a car mostly funded out of Rick Hendrick's pocket. He needs to perform to get a second year with the team.
2020 Championship Finish: 34th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Larson returns from his suspension after using a racial slur while competing in an iRacing event. During his suspension, Larson completed his sensitivity training, but also spent additional time working with former United States men's national team defender Tony Sanneh and Sanneh's foundation as well as Olympic gold medalist Jackie Joyner-Kersee to further his knowledge and participate in the community. He did compete in 2020, winning over 40 dirt races and he started 2021 with another Chili Bowl victory. Larson will have every pair of eyes on him and his dirt track success is one thing, but that doesn't mean he will jump right into a Cup car and pick up where he left off. He is with one of the best teams on the grid. I think he will win at least one or two races. After all, this is an audition in a car mostly funded out of Rick Hendrick's pocket. He needs to perform to get a second year with the team.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Bristol dirt race. Where else would we say? But Larson is one of probably four drivers we put in that first tier for that race and he could easily lose out and finish third. After seeing Hendrick's road course pace, I think he could win one of the seven on the schedule. Sonoma has historically been a track where Larson has been quick, but the results have not gone his way. This year could be different.
Ryan Newman - #6 Kohler Generators/Oscar Mayer/Castrol/Guaranteed Rate Ford
Team: Roush-Fenway Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2008)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Newman's 2020 season was altered after his accident in the Daytona 500. The pandemic allowed him to only miss three races, but he had one top ten finish in his final 32 starts. I feel like that accident has knocked him off his game and I am not sure he can turn it around.
2020 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2008)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Newman's 2020 season was altered after his accident in the Daytona 500. The pandemic allowed him to only miss three races, but he had one top ten finish in his final 32 starts. I feel like that accident has knocked him off his game and I am not sure he can turn it around.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is either Daytona, and complete the storybook comeback this weekend, or Talladega. I don't even have confidence he will run well in the Bristol dirt race.
Corey LaJoie - #7 Schluter Systems/Youtheory Chevrolet
Team: Spire Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Spire Motorsports is taking it seriously with one entry this year, as LaJoie will be full-time. He is still a driver's whose best average finish in a season is 25.6 and he has never started a race in the top 15. A playoff spot should elude him.
2020 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Spire Motorsports is taking it seriously with one entry this year, as LaJoie will be full-time. He is still a driver's whose best average finish in a season is 25.6 and he has never started a race in the top 15. A playoff spot should elude him.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: As long as Daytona and Talladega exist, someone like LaJoie and Spire have a shot.
Tyler Reddick - #8 Lenovo/Caterpillar/Cheddars/BetMGM Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Reddick might have lost out Rookie of the Year to Cole Custer because Custer made the playoffs, but Reddick drew the most attention of the 2020 rookie class. The only problem is for all the praise he got, Reddick only had three top five finishes and nine top ten finishes. He had only two top ten finishes over the final 16 races of the season. I think he will be right about where he was in 2020.
2021 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Reddick might have lost out Rookie of the Year to Cole Custer because Custer made the playoffs, but Reddick drew the most attention of the 2020 rookie class. The only problem is for all the praise he got, Reddick only had three top five finishes and nine top ten finishes. He had only two top ten finishes over the final 16 races of the season. I think he will be right about where he was in 2020.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Homestead, if he remembers the correct race distance.
Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Adrenaline Shot/Kelley Blue Book Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 14th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: The defending champion will take his title defense into the final ten races. With the schedule up to seven road course races, a lot of people are high on Elliott to win a second consecutive title, and though his numbers were off Harvick and Denny Hamlin's until the final races of the season, Elliott pulled it out. It is interesting have a young champion, something NASCAR really hasn't had since Kurt Busch in 2004. For the likes of Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr., their championships were culminations following lengthy careers full of heartbreak and disappointment. Each lifted weight off the back of those drivers. For Elliott, the pressure is to replicate while the likes of Harvick, Busch, Keselowski and Joey Logano are still at the top of their game and Hamlin continues to search for that first championship. This is especially true because Elliott drives for Hendrick, which saw Jeff Gordon win four championships and Jimmie Johnson win seven championships. I wonder if Elliott experiences a championship hangover and cannot keep up for a complete 36-race season.
2020 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 14th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: The defending champion will take his title defense into the final ten races. With the schedule up to seven road course races, a lot of people are high on Elliott to win a second consecutive title, and though his numbers were off Harvick and Denny Hamlin's until the final races of the season, Elliott pulled it out. It is interesting have a young champion, something NASCAR really hasn't had since Kurt Busch in 2004. For the likes of Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr., their championships were culminations following lengthy careers full of heartbreak and disappointment. Each lifted weight off the back of those drivers. For Elliott, the pressure is to replicate while the likes of Harvick, Busch, Keselowski and Joey Logano are still at the top of their game and Hamlin continues to search for that first championship. This is especially true because Elliott drives for Hendrick, which saw Jeff Gordon win four championships and Jimmie Johnson win seven championships. I wonder if Elliott experiences a championship hangover and cannot keep up for a complete 36-race season.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Come on, we know the answer, road courses, but Elliott is pushing "win anywhere" territory.
Aric Almirola - #10 Smithfield Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almirola does just enough to get in, but the results are underwhelming. Last year, he picked up five consecutive top five finishes from Homestead to Indianapolis. Then in the final 20 races he had just one top five finish. It would not surprise me if Almirola ended up just outside a playoff spot, but if he does make it he will be an early out.
2020 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almirola does just enough to get in, but the results are underwhelming. Last year, he picked up five consecutive top five finishes from Homestead to Indianapolis. Then in the final 20 races he had just one top five finish. It would not surprise me if Almirola ended up just outside a playoff spot, but if he does make it he will be an early out.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: There is only one track where Almirola has more than two top five finishes and that is Talladega. He also has nine top ten finishes at the 2.66-mile oval. The only other tracks where he has more than five top ten finishes are Kansas, Richmond and Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After receiving a second wind in 2019, Hamlin kept up the momentum in 2020 and was one of the best drivers. He made the final four again but ended up fourth again. Prior to last year, Hamlin had won five races in a season only twice. I think he could make it three consecutive years, but he is due for a step back. For how good his 2020 season was, Hamlin had a lot of poor results. He was 29th in the Coca-Cola 600, nowhere to be seen in the first Martinsville race, lost a tire while leading the Brickyard 400 late and his opening playoff round were finishes of 13th, 12th and 21st. He finished outside the top ten in six of the ten playoff races. He cannot end a season like that and win a championship. Frankly, after seeing those results, it surprising he wasn't the one to miss out on the Phoenix and not Harvick. He will be in there, but he has to be better.
2020 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After receiving a second wind in 2019, Hamlin kept up the momentum in 2020 and was one of the best drivers. He made the final four again but ended up fourth again. Prior to last year, Hamlin had won five races in a season only twice. I think he could make it three consecutive years, but he is due for a step back. For how good his 2020 season was, Hamlin had a lot of poor results. He was 29th in the Coca-Cola 600, nowhere to be seen in the first Martinsville race, lost a tire while leading the Brickyard 400 late and his opening playoff round were finishes of 13th, 12th and 21st. He finished outside the top ten in six of the ten playoff races. He cannot end a season like that and win a championship. Frankly, after seeing those results, it surprising he wasn't the one to miss out on the Phoenix and not Harvick. He will be in there, but he has to be better.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin will attempt to become the first driver to win three consecutive Daytona 500s. He has also won at Kansas and Pocono the last two years.
Ryan Blaney - #12 Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmour/Menard's/DEX Imaging
Team: Team Penske
2019 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)
2020 Playoff Prospects: Blaney was a first-round elimination in the 2020 playoffs and that encapsulated his season. There was a lot of promise but few inspiring results from him. He won once, but there were at least three other races he let get away. He spun at Bristol, was flat beat at Kentucky when restarting up front late and lost out on strategy at Texas. It also doesn't help that the playoff races do not line up for him. Darlington and Richmond are his two worst tracks and he isn't much better at Bristol. A Penske car should be a lock for the top 16, but there has to be a big improvement for Blaney this year, especially if his teammates are each picking up three of four victories.
2019 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)
2020 Playoff Prospects: Blaney was a first-round elimination in the 2020 playoffs and that encapsulated his season. There was a lot of promise but few inspiring results from him. He won once, but there were at least three other races he let get away. He spun at Bristol, was flat beat at Kentucky when restarting up front late and lost out on strategy at Texas. It also doesn't help that the playoff races do not line up for him. Darlington and Richmond are his two worst tracks and he isn't much better at Bristol. A Penske car should be a lock for the top 16, but there has to be a big improvement for Blaney this year, especially if his teammates are each picking up three of four victories.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Until he closes the deal somewhere else, Talladega is all he has.
Chase Briscoe - #14 HighPoint/PEAK Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (4th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Most rookies don't make the playoffs. Most rookies don't win a race on pace. Every year, I think we try to convince ourselves one rookie will come out strong and fit right into Cup. Nineteen times out of 20 that doesn't happen. But... Briscoe feels different and there are seven road course races. He and Austin Cindric were arguably the two strongest road course drivers in the second division last year. I think Briscoe is better prepared for his rookie year than his teammate Cole Custer was last year. Briscoe has a shot to get in on pure pace and a victory at say Road America or Austin is not out of the question.
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (4th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Most rookies don't make the playoffs. Most rookies don't win a race on pace. Every year, I think we try to convince ourselves one rookie will come out strong and fit right into Cup. Nineteen times out of 20 that doesn't happen. But... Briscoe feels different and there are seven road course races. He and Austin Cindric were arguably the two strongest road course drivers in the second division last year. I think Briscoe is better prepared for his rookie year than his teammate Cole Custer was last year. Briscoe has a shot to get in on pure pace and a victory at say Road America or Austin is not out of the question.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Any of the road courses and the Bristol dirt race. He also won both Las Vegas races last year in the Grand National Series.
Derrike Cope - #15 Jacob Companies Chevrolet
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: N/A (Did not compete)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (1990)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Not going to happen because Cope does not plan on being full-time and the Daytona 500 is currently the only race on his schedule.
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (1990)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Not going to happen because Cope does not plan on being full-time and the Daytona 500 is currently the only race on his schedule.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: He has won this race before... that's all I am saying.
Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol Ford
Team: Roush-Fenway Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Buescher somehow had two top five finishes in 2020 after zero the year prior, eight top ten finishes in 2020, double his 2019 total, but was a position worse in the championship than 2019. He also led a career-high 33 laps. Roush is an anchor Buescher cannot outrun. It is the third-best Ford team and the third-best Ford is only good enough for seventh or eighth best in all of the Cup Series, but that is a distant seventh or eighth. He might crack the top twenty, but the top 16 is out of reach.
2020 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Buescher somehow had two top five finishes in 2020 after zero the year prior, eight top ten finishes in 2020, double his 2019 total, but was a position worse in the championship than 2019. He also led a career-high 33 laps. Roush is an anchor Buescher cannot outrun. It is the third-best Ford team and the third-best Ford is only good enough for seventh or eighth best in all of the Cup Series, but that is a distant seventh or eighth. He might crack the top twenty, but the top 16 is out of reach.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Five of his 20 career top ten finishes have come at Daytona and three of his six top five finishes have come at Daytona. He does have a knack for road courses. He was fifth on the Daytona road course last year and two of his top four tracks on average finish are the Charlotte roval and Sonoma.
Kyle Busch - #18 M&MS/Skittles/Snickers/Pedigree/Interstate Batteries Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch got there last year in unconvincing fashion and all an average Kyle Busch could muster was a round of 12 elimination. It feels like last year was fluke and Busch will not have another 33-race winless streak. Things will level out this year and Busch will be back to picking up four or five victories and look more like a threat. But he has a new crew chief in Ben Beshore and his team is basically the #20 team from last year. He probably should have had another victory or two last year. He has to look better early to really have any confidence this year will different. A lot of people pointed to Busch as the driver who struggled most without practice. He will get some practice at a bunch of the newer tracks, but there are still going to be at least 28 races where Busch's only time in the car will be race day and he has to produce in those 28 races.
2020 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch got there last year in unconvincing fashion and all an average Kyle Busch could muster was a round of 12 elimination. It feels like last year was fluke and Busch will not have another 33-race winless streak. Things will level out this year and Busch will be back to picking up four or five victories and look more like a threat. But he has a new crew chief in Ben Beshore and his team is basically the #20 team from last year. He probably should have had another victory or two last year. He has to look better early to really have any confidence this year will different. A lot of people pointed to Busch as the driver who struggled most without practice. He will get some practice at a bunch of the newer tracks, but there are still going to be at least 28 races where Busch's only time in the car will be race day and he has to produce in those 28 races.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. Kyle Busch can win anywhere.
Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto-Owners Insurance/Reser's Fine Foods Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Truex and Busch were in the same boat last year and while Truex won earlier in the season, the result kept slipping out of his grasp. He had five consecutive third-place finishes and he followed that up with two runner-up results and a fourth. We don't see eight consecutive top five finishes that often. To make matters worse, he probably should have won the race that broke the streak at Darlington and then he finished second the week after that at Richmond. He was also second to Busch at Texas. If Truex had won that Texas race, he would have made the final four and then we are telling a different story entering 2021. He will be in the playoffs. He will win more races. If he wins races at the right time, he could be going for a second Cup title.
2020 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Truex and Busch were in the same boat last year and while Truex won earlier in the season, the result kept slipping out of his grasp. He had five consecutive third-place finishes and he followed that up with two runner-up results and a fourth. We don't see eight consecutive top five finishes that often. To make matters worse, he probably should have won the race that broke the streak at Darlington and then he finished second the week after that at Richmond. He was also second to Busch at Texas. If Truex had won that Texas race, he would have made the final four and then we are telling a different story entering 2021. He will be in the playoffs. He will win more races. If he wins races at the right time, he could be going for a second Cup title.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: After being ragged on for never winning a short track race, Truex's last three victories are on short tracks.
Christopher Bell - #20 Stanley/DeWalt/Irwin/Rheem/Craftsman/PristineAuction.com Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: As a rookie competing for Leavine Family Racing, Bell struggled much of 2020. He had those flashes but those would quickly be snuffed out with a run of three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. He did finish third at Texas in October. He did finish 20th in the championship. The man he is replacing was 17th in the championship and had nearly five times as many top five finishes and nearly double the number of top ten finishes as Bell's 2020 totals. Bell has to make the playoffs. He cannot afford to be the one Gibbs driver on the outside, and Gibbs has a recent history of being quick on the trigger. Bell is already the third different driver in the #20 Toyota since Matt Kenseth stepped away in 2017. It doesn't help that Ty Gibbs, the boss' grandson, has been quite successful at the lower levels and will run some races in NASCAR's second division this year.
2020 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: As a rookie competing for Leavine Family Racing, Bell struggled much of 2020. He had those flashes but those would quickly be snuffed out with a run of three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. He did finish third at Texas in October. He did finish 20th in the championship. The man he is replacing was 17th in the championship and had nearly five times as many top five finishes and nearly double the number of top ten finishes as Bell's 2020 totals. Bell has to make the playoffs. He cannot afford to be the one Gibbs driver on the outside, and Gibbs has a recent history of being quick on the trigger. Bell is already the third different driver in the #20 Toyota since Matt Kenseth stepped away in 2017. It doesn't help that Ty Gibbs, the boss' grandson, has been quite successful at the lower levels and will run some races in NASCAR's second division this year.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bristol dirt race. Bell is in a small group of favorites that include Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe and possibly Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. If Bell wins that Bristol race, the weight will be off his shoulders, but he will still need to be one of the top 16 drivers on points to change the minds of many. He cannot afford to make the playoffs because of a Bristol dirt race victory and still be 20th in points.
Matt DiBenedetto - #21 Menard's/Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford
Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 9th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: DiBenedetto got into the playoffs by the skin of his teeth in 2020 and now he will run all of 2021 as a lame-duck driver, as it has already been decided that Austin Cindric will take over the #21 Wood Brothers Ford in 2022. DiBenedetto is a clean driver and one of his best qualities is he brings the car home in one piece. He had 11 top ten finishes last year and his average finish of 14.8 was a career-best by nearly four positions. He will be in the same spot as last year, teetering on a playoff spot. He could be one of the drivers outside of the top 16 on points, but with a victory to get in. That is asking a lot.
2020 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 9th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: DiBenedetto got into the playoffs by the skin of his teeth in 2020 and now he will run all of 2021 as a lame-duck driver, as it has already been decided that Austin Cindric will take over the #21 Wood Brothers Ford in 2022. DiBenedetto is a clean driver and one of his best qualities is he brings the car home in one piece. He had 11 top ten finishes last year and his average finish of 14.8 was a career-best by nearly four positions. He will be in the same spot as last year, teetering on a playoff spot. He could be one of the drivers outside of the top 16 on points, but with a victory to get in. That is asking a lot.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: His 2019 Bristol defeat is still on everyone's mind. He does have three top ten finishes at Daytona, more than at any other track.
Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil/AAA/AutoTrader/MoneyLion Ford
Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Logano should get in. He should win two or three races in the regular season, being a regular top ten finishers and be a lock for the round of eight. It is only then we will wonder if he can make it back to the final four and if he can be a threat in the Phoenix finale. He can pull it off. It all comes down to timing with him.
2020 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Logano should get in. He should win two or three races in the regular season, being a regular top ten finishers and be a lock for the round of eight. It is only then we will wonder if he can make it back to the final four and if he can be a threat in the Phoenix finale. He can pull it off. It all comes down to timing with him.
He frequently suffers long dry spells. He won two of the first four races last year and then didn't win again until Kansas in October. In 2019, he won at Michigan in June and led the championship and then didn't win any of the final 21 races, falling to fifth in the championship. In his championship year of 2018, he won at Talladega in May and his next victory was not until that Martinsville race in October. Then he won the finale. He won the ninth race of 2017 at Richmond, lost most of the point for failing technical inspection, missed the playoffs and didn't win again that season. History would suggest it is better for Logano to win earlier than later because he is bound to go at least six months between victories.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Logano has three victories at Talladega, Kansas and Michigan, tied for the most in his career. He also averaged a finish of 11.0 at Nashville in four starts there in NASCAR's second division with 311 laps led out 858 laps completed.
Bubba Wallace - #23 DoorDash/McDonald's/Columbia/Dr. Pepper/Root Insurance Toyota
Team: 23XI Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Wallace and 23XI Racing, formed from the partnership between Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin, was the headline grabber of 2020. Now, it will hit the racetrack. It is a new team. It will have growing pains, but with its owners and the support from Toyota it has to at least match what Leavine Family Racing did last year and finish in the top twenty. Wallace can do that, and I think he will set personal bests in top five and top ten finishes, but making the playoffs is asking a lot. He will come close, but fall short, and that is not a bad thing for him and this team in year one.
2020 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Wallace and 23XI Racing, formed from the partnership between Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin, was the headline grabber of 2020. Now, it will hit the racetrack. It is a new team. It will have growing pains, but with its owners and the support from Toyota it has to at least match what Leavine Family Racing did last year and finish in the top twenty. Wallace can do that, and I think he will set personal bests in top five and top ten finishes, but making the playoffs is asking a lot. He will come close, but fall short, and that is not a bad thing for him and this team in year one.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace always puts himself in the discussion at plate races. Daytona is his best track in terms of average finish. This is going to be his best Cup opportunity to shine at other tracks. He had a top ten at Bristol last year. He won the second Eldora Truck race. He has a Truck victory at Martinsville. Bristol and Martinsville are two of his six best tracks in terms of average finish in Cup. He also has done well at Michigan in every category.
William Byron - #24 Axalta/Liberty University Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Byron failed to get a top five finish in the first 24 races of 2020 and then was fourth and first at Dover and Daytona to close out the regular season, and fifth at Darlington to start the playoffs. Eight of his 14 top ten finishes came in the final 14 races of the season. He is trending in the right direction at the start of 2021. But Hendrick Motorsports got tougher and he will be clawing not to be fourth in the team. Last year, Jimmie Johnson was in the top 16 of points, but a few race winners outside the top 16 cost him a playoff spot. I could see Byron being in that position this year.
2020 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Byron failed to get a top five finish in the first 24 races of 2020 and then was fourth and first at Dover and Daytona to close out the regular season, and fifth at Darlington to start the playoffs. Eight of his 14 top ten finishes came in the final 14 races of the season. He is trending in the right direction at the start of 2021. But Hendrick Motorsports got tougher and he will be clawing not to be fourth in the team. Last year, Jimmie Johnson was in the top 16 of points, but a few race winners outside the top 16 cost him a playoff spot. I could see Byron being in that position this year.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Surprisingly, in six Pocono starts, he has four top ten finishes and an average finish of 9.7. He is also the most recent Daytona winner.
Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops/FR8 Auctions Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: McDowell is coming off a career year with his 23rd-place championship finish and four top ten finishes. However, 23rd in the championship and four top ten finishes are lightyears away from a playoff spot. However, the man of 357 Cup starts, zero victories, three top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes is playing the numbers game and the more he races the more likely one race will fall into his lap. We see it all the time in NASCAR. If he wins the Daytona 500, his winning percentage will still be 0.279%, which is still atrocious, but it will get him a playoff spot, though he likely will not do much with it.
2020 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: McDowell is coming off a career year with his 23rd-place championship finish and four top ten finishes. However, 23rd in the championship and four top ten finishes are lightyears away from a playoff spot. However, the man of 357 Cup starts, zero victories, three top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes is playing the numbers game and the more he races the more likely one race will fall into his lap. We see it all the time in NASCAR. If he wins the Daytona 500, his winning percentage will still be 0.279%, which is still atrocious, but it will get him a playoff spot, though he likely will not do much with it.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: For all the people that compliment McDowell's road course ability, which does include full-time rides in Grand-Am, a Star Mazda championship and a pair of Champ Car starts, do you want to guess how many top ten finishes he has on road courses in the Cup Series? The answer is one and it was tenth at last year's Daytona road course race. That is one top ten in 23 road course starts. I don't think it is going to happen at a road course.
Anthony Alfredo - #38 MDS Trucking Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (18th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo has 19 Grand National Series starts and 13 Truck starts. I don't think he is ready for full-time Cup. This is the quintessential rush to the Cup Series because the money is running out and instead of burning it in the lower divisions it will burn brighter at the highest level. I think he has potential, but he is not developed enough yet to think he will be competitive in Cup.
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (18th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo has 19 Grand National Series starts and 13 Truck starts. I don't think he is ready for full-time Cup. This is the quintessential rush to the Cup Series because the money is running out and instead of burning it in the lower divisions it will burn brighter at the highest level. I think he has potential, but he is not developed enough yet to think he will be competitive in Cup.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Of his nine top ten finishes in the second division last year, six were on 1.5-mile ovals. His only two top ten finishes in Truck are also on 1.5-mile ovals.
Cole Custer #41 Haas Automation/Dixie Vodka Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 37th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: While Custer stole a victory at Kentucky last year to earn a playoff spot, he was far from impressive. He had two top five finishes and seven top ten finishes. Christopher Bell had the same number in both categories. Custer led five laps last year, all at Kentucky, and 29 drivers led more including Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, Matt Kenseth, Corey LaJoie, hell even Daniel Suárez led more. I think this year will be a market correction and he will be outside the top 16 and clinging to the top 20.
2020 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 37th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: While Custer stole a victory at Kentucky last year to earn a playoff spot, he was far from impressive. He had two top five finishes and seven top ten finishes. Christopher Bell had the same number in both categories. Custer led five laps last year, all at Kentucky, and 29 drivers led more including Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, Matt Kenseth, Corey LaJoie, hell even Daniel Suárez led more. I think this year will be a market correction and he will be outside the top 16 and clinging to the top 20.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Three of his seven top tens were at tracks a mile in length. Phoenix, Loudon and Dover.
Ross Chastian - #42 AdventHealth Chevrolet
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Chastian has been one of the popular underdogs for the last few years and he has been on Ganassi's radar for the last few years. His stock took a hit last year, as he won no races in the Grand National Series. It was not without trying. He had 15 top five finishes and 27 top ten finishes, most in the series. He also had 553 laps led, fifth in the series. There are competing thoughts about Ganassi. Everyone said the team was holding Kyle Larson back and yet the team had Larson in the top ten of the championship in four consecutive seasons and Kurt Busch was tenth last year. I don't expect Chastian to win races, but that is more down to his talent. I think he will be in that pack of winless drivers fighting for those final playoff points on points and ultimately falling short.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Chastian has been one of the popular underdogs for the last few years and he has been on Ganassi's radar for the last few years. His stock took a hit last year, as he won no races in the Grand National Series. It was not without trying. He had 15 top five finishes and 27 top ten finishes, most in the series. He also had 553 laps led, fifth in the series. There are competing thoughts about Ganassi. Everyone said the team was holding Kyle Larson back and yet the team had Larson in the top ten of the championship in four consecutive seasons and Kurt Busch was tenth last year. I don't expect Chastian to win races, but that is more down to his talent. I think he will be in that pack of winless drivers fighting for those final playoff points on points and ultimately falling short.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona. It is his best track in terms of average finish in Cup and Grand National Series competition.
Erik Jones - #43 U.S. Air Force/RP Funding Chevrolet
Team: Richard Petty Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After a few difficult seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones takes a large step back to Richard Petty Motorsports. The good news is Jones might be catching RPM at a good time. The team was 22nd in the championship last year, the team's best finish since 2015. It had five top ten finishes, the most since 2017. While Jones was outcasted from JGR, he is coming off a season with nine top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes. For him to make the playoffs he will have to be flawless. A victory will be hard to come by, but he could sneak into one of those final playoff spots that come down to points.
2020 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After a few difficult seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones takes a large step back to Richard Petty Motorsports. The good news is Jones might be catching RPM at a good time. The team was 22nd in the championship last year, the team's best finish since 2015. It had five top ten finishes, the most since 2017. While Jones was outcasted from JGR, he is coming off a season with nine top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes. For him to make the playoffs he will have to be flawless. A victory will be hard to come by, but he could sneak into one of those final playoff spots that come down to points.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington. Six starts, six top ten finishes, four top five finishes, a victory, an average finish of 5.2 and this year there will be two Darlington races. He also runs strong at Texas and Pocono.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet
Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse, Jr. joined JTG Daugherty Racing last year and he went from 23rd to 24th in the championship with his average finish dropping two spots. This is despite finishing in the top five in three times in 2020 after having only one in 2019. He also had more top ten finishes in 2020 than 2019. As long as there are plate races, Stenhouse, Jr. has a shot, but that means he has only three chances.
2020 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse, Jr. joined JTG Daugherty Racing last year and he went from 23rd to 24th in the championship with his average finish dropping two spots. This is despite finishing in the top five in three times in 2020 after having only one in 2019. He also had more top ten finishes in 2020 than 2019. As long as there are plate races, Stenhouse, Jr. has a shot, but that means he has only three chances.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Talladega. The Bristol dirt race could play into his favor.
Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Financial Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Bowman was one of the most improved drivers over the course of 2020. After winning at Fontana and fading in the first half of the season, it felt like he would be an early out in the playoffs. Instead, he made the semifinal round and finished sixth. While he picked up 15 top ten finishes, his six top five finishes were fewer than his 2019 total, but he had nine top ten finishes in the final 12 races. Bowman effectively is taking on a new number and sponsorship. He will make it back to the playoffs and I think he picks up at least two victories.
2020 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Bowman was one of the most improved drivers over the course of 2020. After winning at Fontana and fading in the first half of the season, it felt like he would be an early out in the playoffs. Instead, he made the semifinal round and finished sixth. While he picked up 15 top ten finishes, his six top five finishes were fewer than his 2019 total, but he had nine top ten finishes in the final 12 races. Bowman effectively is taking on a new number and sponsorship. He will make it back to the playoffs and I think he picks up at least two victories.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: A 1.5-mile oval. He probably should have won the Coca-Cola 600 last year and maybe even the 500-kilometer race at Charlotte the Thursday after that. He was in the top five in the final three 1.5-mile races of the season and led 43 laps in the October Texas race.
Cody Ware - #51 Biohaven Pharmaceuticals' Nurtec Chevrolet
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (58th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: I am not sure because Ware might also impersonate an IndyCar driver at some point in 2021 and while he was announced to compete full-time in Cup it doesn't sound like that is the solid plan. I could see him getting distracted and someone else filling this car for eight or nine races this season.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (58th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: I am not sure because Ware might also impersonate an IndyCar driver at some point in 2021 and while he was announced to compete full-time in Cup it doesn't sound like that is the solid plan. I could see him getting distracted and someone else filling this car for eight or nine races this season.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Ware had done his share of road course racing, so one of those seven, but in all likelihood, he will be finishing 24th at best.
Josh Bilicki - #52 Insurance King/Junction Fuels/Wisconsin Lighting Lab Ford
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (34th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: With any Rick Ware Racing entry, I don't believe anyone will do a full season. Somebody will have more cash ahead of one race and the team will change drivers faster than you can blink. Forget the playoffs, running all 36 races would be an accomplishment for Bilicki.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (34th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: With any Rick Ware Racing entry, I don't believe anyone will do a full season. Somebody will have more cash ahead of one race and the team will change drivers faster than you can blink. Forget the playoffs, running all 36 races would be an accomplishment for Bilicki.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: His best finish finishes in the Grand National Series are the Daytona road course, Road America, Charlotte roval, Road America and Mid-Ohio. Then it is Talladega and another Mid-Ohio, a Kansas race and another Road America. All those results were between 12th and 20th.
Joey Gase - #53 Rick Ware Racing Ford
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (49th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 23rd (2017, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dead on arrival.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (49th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 23rd (2017, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dead on arrival.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Nowhere. Not in NASCAR. In 74 Cup strats, he has three lead lap finishes. He was 20 laps down in the Coca-Cola 600 last year. He was parked at Bristol for being too slow.
Jamie McMurray - #77 AdventHealth Chevrolet
Team: Spire Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: N/A (Did not compete)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2010)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a one-off as Spire Motorsports will cycle an unknown number of drivers through this car in 2021.
2020 Championship Finish: N/A (Did not compete)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2010)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a one-off as Spire Motorsports will cycle an unknown number of drivers through this car in 2021.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Here! But McMurray gets a guaranteed paycheck from the television industry, so he is a winner every two weeks in my book.
B.J. McLeod - #78 Keen Parts/NASCAR Heat 5 Ford
Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (21st in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: It is a new, underfunded team with a driver whose average finish in the Cup Series is 33.2 and who has never finished on the lead lap in any of his prior 57 starts. In 252 starts across the three national touring series, McLeod has zero top ten finishes and only 31 lead lap finishes. Even if he were to win a rain-shortened wreck fest, he still would not be in the top 30 of the championship, the other requirement for making the playoffs.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (21st in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: It is a new, underfunded team with a driver whose average finish in the Cup Series is 33.2 and who has never finished on the lead lap in any of his prior 57 starts. In 252 starts across the three national touring series, McLeod has zero top ten finishes and only 31 lead lap finishes. Even if he were to win a rain-shortened wreck fest, he still would not be in the top 30 of the championship, the other requirement for making the playoffs.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona is the site of his best career finish of 19th. McLeod is one driver who may miss the Indianapolis oval the most because his next two best finishes in the Cup Series were 22nd and 25th in the last two Brickyard 400s.
Daniel Suárez - #99 iFly/Pump It Up Party/K1 Speed/CommScope Chevrolet
Team: Trackhouse
2020 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 29th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: A long shot. Suárez moves to a new team, which has purchased Germain Racing's assets and Trackhouse will operate out of the Richard Childress Racing shop this season. Despite driving for the Gaunt Brothers last year, Suárez completed 9,523 laps, the 13th most in NASCAR, more than Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, Cole Custer, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace. Six of those drivers won a race. I expect a big improvement from Suárez in 2021, but he will still be short of a playoff spot. Perhaps he could be the sleeper of the season and could break into the top 20.
2020 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 29th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: A long shot. Suárez moves to a new team, which has purchased Germain Racing's assets and Trackhouse will operate out of the Richard Childress Racing shop this season. Despite driving for the Gaunt Brothers last year, Suárez completed 9,523 laps, the 13th most in NASCAR, more than Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, Cole Custer, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace. Six of those drivers won a race. I expect a big improvement from Suárez in 2021, but he will still be short of a playoff spot. Perhaps he could be the sleeper of the season and could break into the top 20.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Despite running with Gaunt Brothers last year, Suárez's average finish at Dover remains 13.8, 14.6 at Richmond and 15.2 at Bristol. Maybe he could steal the show at a short track.
Non-Chartered Teams
Garrett Smithley - #13 Trophy Tractor Ford
Team: MBM Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (43rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is not a full-time entry.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (43rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is not a full-time entry.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: I wonder how far down the ladder you would have to go until Smithley is the favorite to win a race. Would he be the favorite in an ARCA East Series race? I doubt he will be in the Daytona 500.
Kaz Grala - #16 Hyperice Chevrolet
Team: Kaulig Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (33rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Grala will not make the playoffs, but he will be part-time with Kaulig Racing, as the team samples the Cup Series before a full-time expansion.
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Grala will not make the playoffs, but he will be part-time with Kaulig Racing, as the team samples the Cup Series before a full-time expansion.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Grala was seventh in his Cup debut last year on the Daytona road course as a substitute for Austin Dillon. With enough practice time, maybe he steals a victory on a road course. The rest of his schedule is unknown. As for Daytona, Kaulig put Justin Haley in this race last year on speed, but I think the field is tougher this year. It might not come easy but Grala could pull it out.
Austin Cindric - #33 Verizon Ford
Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (2020 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: In the Cup Series? Pretty low. In the Grand National Series? Pencil the defending champion in now for six to eight victories.
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (2020 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: In the Cup Series? Pretty low. In the Grand National Series? Pencil the defending champion in now for six to eight victories.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Cindric will compete in a handful of Cup races in 2021, as he prepares to be full-time in 2022 with the Wood Brothers. If he runs any of the road courses, he could pull out a surprise victory. You would have to think Penske will put this car in the Daytona 500 one way or another. Last year, the two cars to make it on speed were 31st and 33rd while the Penske cars were 11th, 23rd and 27th. If Cindric matches his teammates speed, he should get the job done on Wednesday.
David Ragan - #36 Front Row Motorsports Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (only ran the Daytona 500 and finished fourth)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a Daytona 500 only entry for Ragan.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (only ran the Daytona 500 and finished fourth)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a Daytona 500 only entry for Ragan.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is Daytona or bust for Ragan for another year. There are nine cars fighting for four spots. He will be competitive for a spot, but I am not sure the qualifying speed will be there. He will likely need a result on Thursday.
Ryan Preece - #37 Kroger ClickList/Bush's Beans Chevrolet
Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Preece might not even be full-time. This team's charter was leased to Trackhouse. The team does not have the funds to do all the races. If the results are not good enough, the team might not compete, or we will see someone else in this car at some point in 2021. Either way, I don't have faith in Preece.
2020 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Preece might not even be full-time. This team's charter was leased to Trackhouse. The team does not have the funds to do all the races. If the results are not good enough, the team might not compete, or we will see someone else in this car at some point in 2021. Either way, I don't have faith in Preece.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: A modified race. Last year, JTG Daughtery Racing put Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. on pole position for the Daytona 500 and Preece was 17th in qualifying. The team could manufacture the speed to get Preece into the race.
Noah Gragson - #62 Beard Oil Chevrolet
Team: Beard Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (5th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almost zero in the Cup series, but much higher for the Grand National Series, where he will be full-time. He won two races last year.
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (5th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almost zero in the Cup series, but much higher for the Grand National Series, where he will be full-time. He won two races last year.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Grand National Series. Beard has a good track record of making this race with Brendan Gaughan. The team made it on speed last year. Gragson might have the talent to make the race, but he has to face tougher opposition and might need to get in on Thursday night. His aggression is known to get the better of him at times. That could cost him.
Timmy Hill - #66 MBM Motorsports Ford
Team: MBM Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (ran all 36 Cup races. 26th in the Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Slim to none.
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (ran all 36 Cup races. 26th in the Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Slim to none.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: iRacing. He might start every other Cup race this season, but I have my doubts he can be out of the top four non-chartered teams to make the Daytona 500.
Ty Dillon - #96 Black Rifle Coffee/Bass Pro Shops Toyota
Team: Gaunt Brothers Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon is stepping back and will only be part-time with Gaunt Brothers. He will also run a few races with Joe Gibbs Racing in the Grand National Series.
2020 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon is stepping back and will only be part-time with Gaunt Brothers. He will also run a few races with Joe Gibbs Racing in the Grand National Series.
Most Likely Place for a Victory: He is only signed on for Daytona. He will have to either qualify or race his way into the field. Gaunt Brothers Racing had made this race three consecutive years before Suárez missed out last year. It will come down to the wire on Thursday.
Playoff Driver Predictions
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Chase Elliott
5. Martin Truex, Jr.
6. Joey Logano
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Kyle Larson
9. Alex Bowman
10. Ryan Blaney
11. Kurt Busch
12. William Byron
13. Christopher Bell
14. Chase Briscoe
15. Matt DiBenedetto
16. Aric Almirola
The Clash will take place tonight at 7:14 p.m. ET. Daytona 500 qualifying is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday February 10 with the qualifying races scheduled to begin at 7:21 p.m. on Thursday February 11. Green flag for the 63rd Daytona 500 is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday February 14.
