The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl champions. Tom Brady has done it again. Lewis Hamilton decided to announce his return to Formula One this morning. Peugeot announced its LMDh driver lineup this morning. Romain Grosjean is coming to IndyCar. Ferrari is not, and I believe I had that. Formula One might have to run two races in Bahrain. Formula One has also taken reverse grid qualifying races off the table but is still open to sprint races on Saturday. Jamie Whincup is going to retire at the end of the year. The Supercross championship might be getting out of hand. NASCAR is getting ready for Daytona. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
What Has Happened to Our Youths?
I thought Richard Petty's record for most NASCAR Cup starts would be broken in my lifetime. With drivers getting younger, the schedule set on three-dozen races, increased measures to lock drivers into the field and the likes of Mark Martin, Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, Ken Schrader, Dale Jarrett, Ricky Rudd and Michael Waltrip all racing into their 50s, I thought some 20-year-old would go on for a 30-plus year career and top 1,184 starts.
However, despite repeating the words of one Dr. Jones for years, I never thought they would apply to race car drivers. Apparently, it is not the years but the mileage for them as well.
Marco Andretti's decision to step away from full-time competition got me thinking. Andretti has been around for 15 years, a respectable career length, but he only turns 34 years old this year, the same age Dario Franchitti was when Franchitti won his first Indianapolis 500 and championship and younger than Arie Luyendyk, Emerson Fittipaldi, Tony Kanaan, Will Power and Takuma Sato when they all won their first Indianapolis 500.
Results played into Andretti's decision. I bet if he was eighth or ninth in the championship and running level to his teammates, he would still be preparing for a full season in 2021. But after a five-year slide, Andretti reassesses his career and cuts down on his number of races for at least 2021. He could recharge the batteries and make a full-time comeback next year. He might move on to another discipline, whether that is sports cars or something entirely different, or he could be done for good. He might try a few years as an Indianapolis one-off and then call it quits before turning 40.
Andretti was a part of the first wave of 21st century teenagers in motorsports, nearly winning the Indianapolis 500 at 19 years old. As with all the teenagers that came before and after him, the record book is for the taking when you debut before turning 20. A.J. Foyt ran until he was 57 years old. Mario Andretti was 54 years old when he made his final Indianapolis 500 start. A teenager could flip the record book.
But we are watching this wave of teenage drivers hit their 30s and the trajectory does not appear to be on par with the generations before them. There is a level of burnout that we did not anticipate. While many of these drivers entered at a high point for viewership and sponsorship dollars, the last five years have seen a sharp decline in both categories. A decline in viewers, leads to a decline in sponsorship, which means smaller contracts and drivers that were once making $8-10 million a year, are no longer able to command those salaries. And they can't seem to justify getting out of bed for $2 million a year.
Money aside, the appetite just doesn't seem to be there to race into a driver's 50s. Jeff Gordon got out at 43 years after finishing third in the championship and the year before that he had won four races. Concussions shortened Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s career, but he had to walk away at 42. Tony Stewart called it quits at 45 and Carl Edwards walked away after having a championship slip from his grasp at 36 years old. Clint Bowyer just walked away at 41 years old. Jamie McMurray was 42 when he stopped competing full-time.
Drivers don't have to race until their 50 years old anymore. They can walk away at 40 years old with more than enough money to live on for another three lifetimes. At the start of the 21st century, the likes of Martin, Schrader, Labonte and the other guys pushing 50 were making the best money of their careers. They had incentive to keep going and keep cashing in. Now, a driver's highest earning power is going to be from their mid-20s to their late-30s. Once they hit 40, there is no guarantee the demand will be there.
As glamour as being a race car driver sounds, it is still a job. There are is a daily grind and responsibilities that wear on a person. Millions of dollars might take care of the bills and allow for an excess of luxury items, but everyone has a limit to the physical and emotional toll of a job. Once it stops becoming fun, it is better to walk away.
Oddly enough, while we are seeing a decrease in the older drivers in IndyCar and NASCAR, in Formula One experience is carrying careers longer than ever before. For the longest time, a driver wouldn't get into Formula One until his mid-20s, he would get a good decade and then be out by his mid-30s. Now, in the hyper-specialization era of Formula One where teams are hesitant to hire anyone but the proven product, more drivers are getting to race into their 40s. Rubens Barrichello might have started the trend, but we have seen Kimi Räikkönen and Fernando Alonso make it to their 40s. Jenson Button and Felipe Massa each got to their late-30s. Heck, Michael Schumacher returned with Mercedes at 41 years old.
Though some drivers are staying in Formula One longer, that doesn't mean some are hanging it up early. Nico Rosberg retired at 31 after winning the World Drivers' champion at 31. Lewis Hamilton is only 36 years old, but we do not expect him to race into his 40s. Sebastian Vettel is only 33 years and we think he is on his last legs in Formula One.
The second wave of youngster are... well, still youngsters, but it will be interesting to see if they continue on longer than their teenage predecessors or perhaps walk away at an even younger age. Max Verstappen is only 23 years old and already has 119 Grand Prix starts. Will he go for another decade or will he call it quits at 30 and focus on simulator racing? Colton Herta isn't even 21 yet, he is the youngest IndyCar race winner and in year three he will be a serious championship threat, but he is also in a band and at 28 years old, will he decide a decade in racing has been enough and focus on music instead? Or will Verstappen and Herta both race into their 40s and perhaps their 50s and set all kinds of records for longevity?
We will have to see how motorsports evolves over the next decade and it will change, not just in how much money is flowing through it and how many people are watching it, but in what is powering the machinery and perhaps even in how races are organized. Changes from fossil fuels to electricity or hydrogen or some other form of propulsion could dictate how careers go. Some drivers might adapt better than others. Some might choose not to adapt at all.
A few records are safe for now.
At 35 years old, Kyle Busch will start this NASCAR season with 570 Cup starts, 614 away from Petty's record of 1,184. He would have to race another 17 years just to get close to that record. Joey Logano is only 30. He has 435 starts. He will need to race nearly another 21 years in the Cup series to take the top spot. Chase Elliott is 999 starts away from the record and he just turned 25 years old. He would have to run another 27.75 seasons to get there.
Longevity requires skill and good health, and as we saw with Jimmie Johnson, even the best lose a step and cannot get it back. Once it starts to go, it might be better to get out before you hang on too long. Some will spend 20 years at the highest level of motorsports before they turn 40 and some will get out early even if they have another decade in them.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Super Bowl, but did you know...
Ken Roczen swept the Supercross races at Indianapolis.
Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR will have the Clash on Tuesday, qualifying Wednesday, qualifying races on Thursday and the Daytona 500 on Sunday.
The Asian Le Mans Series will run a pair of 4-hour races at Dubai.
The Toyota Racing Series concludes it season at Circuit Chris Amon.
Supercross will be in Orlando.
