The sixth IndyCar Team Preview takes us to Ed Carpenter Racing, which saw an upward swing in results last year after a three-year lull following the departure of Josef Newgarden. Ed Carpenter remained in his oval-only role, but Conor Daly was brought in for the road and street courses. Rinus VeeKay took over the full-time role in the #21 Chevrolet.
While VeeKay's season started with two accidents in Texas, he was the leading ECR driver all year and emerged as IndyCar's top rookie. He picked up his first top five finish in his second start, he was the top ECR qualifier in the Indianapolis 500 and he picked up his first pole position and first podium finish in the first Harvest Grand Prix race. Carpenter was fifth in the season opener, but his next best result was 15th. Daly never finished in the top ten with ECR in 2020. All three drivers will return in their same roles for 2021.
2020 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Harvest Grand Prix I)
Poles: 1 (Harvest Grand Prix I)
Championship Finishes: 14th (Rinus VeeKay), 17th (Conor Daly), 25th (Ed Carpenter)
2021 Drivers:
Ed Carpenter - #20 Sonax/Air Force Chevrolet
Carpenter opened his 2020 season with an encouraging race in Texas, moving up from 13th to fifth through some strong pit stops. Piggybacking off his runner-up finish at Gateway to end his 2019 season, this result gave Carpenter consecutive top five finishes for the first time in his career. The first night of the season was his best night of the season.
An unremarkable 15th in the first Iowa race preceded him getting into the wall before the halfway point in the second Iowa race. He qualified 16th for the Indianapolis 500 after three consecutive front row starts and his race was effectively over after lap one. Contact with Zach Veach damaged his suspension, bringing Carpenter to pit road for repairs. He would continue in the race and finished 13 laps down in 26th.
Gateway could not save his season. He was caught in the start crash in race one and never had the pace in race two, ending his season in 21st, three laps down.
Numbers to Remember:
18.333: Average finish in 2020, his worst average finish in a season.
16.333: Average starting position in 2020, his worst since committing to an oval-only schedule in 2014.
0: Laps led in 2020, his first season without a lap led since 2007.
Predictions/Goals:
Carpenter's horrendous 2020 season positions himself for an almost guaranteed improvement in results. He could finish 15th in his four starts and that would be a notable gain.
There will be only four oval races, the fewest on the schedule since Carpenter started his oval only schedule. There isn't any pattern in Carpenter's seasons. It doesn't matter if the season has five or six ovals. An extra oval race doesn't make or break whether or not it is a good season or not. The one notable thing is in four seasons where Indianapolis is not his first race, Carpenter has three top ten finishes. In the three years Indianapolis has been his first race, he has one top ten finish.
He will get two cracks at Texas before Indianapolis and then he will have two months off before his final start.
I think Carpenter needs to be in the top ten of oval points. What's the point of Carpenter doing this if he is just going to be the 22nd best driver or even as low as 14th? He has been heralded as some oval specialist and yet he hasn't won since 2014. He has only two podium finish and three top five finishes since 2015. He is the threat that never comes through. His laps led in each of the last six seasons are one, one, five, 66, seven and zero. That is 80 laps in 34 starts. Only three of those laps have been at tracks other than Indianapolis.
Carpenter has to do more. He has to take that occasional great Indianapolis run and have it at Texas or Gateway. But Carpenter is terrible at Gateway. In five starts, his finishes are 21st, 12th, second, 20th and 21st. That second is only because of a late caution that caught all the leaders a lap down and dropped Carpenter into the top three over the final 44 laps.
I think this is the make-or-break year for Carpenter. He turns 40 on March 3. He can just run Indianapolis and have two full-time cars with two drivers going for the championship. We have been doing the split driver thing for seven years and other than the first year I am not sure it has been a successful experiment. If the results are more of the same, averaging a finish of 15th or worse, it is time to end it.
What does Carpenter need to do in 2021?
Average a top ten finish.
Lead laps somewhere other than Indianapolis.
Run mildly competitive at Gateway
Conor Daly - #20 Air Force Chevrolet
Daly spent the oval portion of the 2020 with Carlin, so his first start with Ed Carpenter Racing was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He stuck to the two-stop strategy and was looking good for a top ten finish before he lost the pace in the closing laps and dropped to 12th.
Contact with Patricio O'Ward knocked Daly out of the first Road America race and front wing damage early in the second race sullied that day. After two inspiring outings with Carlin in Iowa, Daly's Indianapolis 500 was in a third ECR car and an overaggressive restart led to his spin in turn four knocking him out of the race prior to the halfway point.
He qualified fourth for the first Mid-Ohio race, but he kept going backwards and he lost a top ten again in the closing laps, finishing in 13th. There was no recovery in the second Mid-Ohio race, as he started and finished 16th. Back at Indianapolis for the Harvest Grand Prix, Daly spent race one in the middle of the pack and finished 12th again. He spent the second race a little further back, ending up 20th and Daly closed his season with a 17th at St. Petersburg.
Numbers to Remember:
13: Consecutive road/street course races without a top ten finish.
1,302: Days between Daly's most recent road/street course top ten at Sonoma 2017 and the 2021 season opener at Barber.
17: As in a 17th-place championship finish in 2020, Daly's best IndyCar championship finish.
Predictions/Goals:
As much as Carpenter needs a season that justifies keeping up the dueling driver situation in the #20 Chevrolet, Daly is auditioning for the full-time gig. Carpenter doesn't keep the road course drivers around for long. Mike Conway got a season. Luca Filippi got a season. Spencer Pigot got two. Jordan King got one. Ed Jones got one.
Daly is getting a second chance, but history does not suggest there will be a third. That is why his results have to be sensational. He cannot go another season without a top ten finish on a road/street course. He has got to keep up with Rinus VeeKay. VeeKay trounced Daly in his rookie season. And Daly is no longer a kid.
Daly has 64 starts to his name. He is 29 years old. He is no longer "the guy who just needs a chance." This is his chance. He is pushing 30 and over 75 starts. Do you know how many drivers took 65 starts or more to get their first career victory? The answer is 15. If Daly does not win a race in 2021 and the all 17 races are contested, he will have gone 81 races without a victory. Do you know how many drivers took more than 81 starts to get their first career victory? The answer drops to seven.
I don't think Daly can win in 2021, not with ECR. If he returns to Carlin for the other three oval races his chances increase but are still low. From what we saw in 2020, the gap is too large for him to jump to the head of the pack. He has got to beat his teammate in championship, and he needs to beat VeeKay in every notable statistical category. Daly's number of top five finishes, top ten finishes, laps led, average finish, average starting position, championship finish and head-to-head victories have got to be better than VeeKay.
I know Daly might not run three races, so he might lose out in some categories, but he has got to put up a fight for best ECR driver in 2021. He wasn't in that conversation at all in 2020.
What does Daly need to do in 2021?
Beat VeeKay.
Get a career-best championship finish.
Have an average finish below 14th.
Rinus VeeKay - #21 Autogeek/Direct Supply Chevrolet
The start of the season is one VeeKay would like to have back. A practice accident within the first 40 minutes or so of the season left the team scrambling to make the race. Unable to qualifying, VeeKay started at the back of the grid and would have another accident 36 laps into his debut, leaving a concerning first impression.
At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, VeeKay bounced back with an early commitment to the three-stop strategy and it got him into the top five. He showed good moments at Road America but ended up 13th and 14th in the two races. His second trip to an oval saw another accident, but this one was not his fault. Colton Herta launched himself over the back of VeeKay coming to a restart in the first Iowa race. He could not escape mistakes of others in race two, as a botched pit stop caused him valuable time.
VeeKay surprisingly led the ECR way at the Indianapolis 500, qualifying fourth. He had a good race, but another pit lane mistake, this time on his part, took him out of the running for Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year. He clipped a crew member, leading to an extended pit stop and a penalty.
A strategic play at Gateway got him a sixth-place finish from 14th starting position in race one. He ran the same strategy in race two and went from 18th to fourth, which include a fierce battle with Colton Herta. A conservative strategy in the first Mid-Ohio race got him eighth, and he started and finished 11th in the second race.
Then came the Harvest Grand Prix. He took a surprise pole position and backed it up leading the first 15 laps. He did fall back but remained in the top five. In the closing stint, he had more speed than Herta and drove back up to third. There was a bit of a hangover for the second race, finishing 17th and spending the entire race out of the top ten. He made contact with Scott McLaughlin at St. Petersburg, setting him back to a 15th-place finish, but he still clinched 2020 IndyCar Rookie of the Year.
Numbers to Remember:
12: Times VeeKay was the top ECR finish win 14 races in 2020.
8: VeeKay is the eighth rookie of the year in 13 seasons since reunification to not finish in the top ten of the championship.
14.667: Average finish on ovals in 2020.
10.75: average finish on road/street courses in 2020.
Predictions/Goals:
For the first time since Josef Newgarden left the organization it felt like ECR had a driver it could fully trust in the field. ECR had plenty of drivers who showed flashes since the start of 2017 season, but VeeKay went a level higher in 2020. He won a pole position. He got a podium finish and three top five finishes. I don't think he is ready to win races yet, but you cannot complain if he repeated his rookie campaign in his sophomore season.
VeeKay had some rough moments. Texas cannot be completely forgotten, and he also botched his Indianapolis 500 with a poor pit stop because of how he entered the pit stall. After his pole position and third in the first Harvest Grand Prix, he fell off the next day. Top drivers don't do that in doubleheader weekends. But for year one it was a damn fine start.
The problem with ECR is it has been solidly in the middle of the championship since Newgarden left. J.R. Hildebrand was 15th in 2017. Spencer Pigot was 14th in his two full seasons in the #21 Chevrolet. VeeKay was 14th last year as well. I don't see VeeKay climbing up into the top ten of the championship. The team isn't there yet and VeeKay isn't that driver yet.
Is he going to finish ahead of Scott Dixon? No. Josef Newgarden? No. Will Power? No. Simon Pagenaud? No. Colton Herta or Alexander Rossi? No and no. Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato? No and no. That leaves him finishing ninth at best and that is not taking into considering Arrow McLaren SP's two drivers in Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist, past champions Ryan Hunter-Reay and Sébastien Bourdais, the returning James Hinchcliffe and either of the other two full-time Ganassi drivers Marcus Ericsson and Álex Palou.
I just listed 15 drivers and didn't even mention Jack Harvey, who could probably be a top ten championship contender, and that is VeeKay's competition just to get back to 14th in the championship let alone improve. You might think stagnation and VeeKay finishing 14th in the championship for a second consecutive year would show no growth, but that is an accomplishment in its own right when looking at this 2021 IndyCar grid.
What does VeeKay need to do in 2021?
At least finish 14th in the championship.
At least finish ahead of Daly in championship.
Not have an accident at Texas.
Pick up at least eight top ten finishes.
Make the second round of qualifying at least seven times and the Fast Six at least three times.
The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener.
