Five IndyCar races are in the books for the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season. The 105th Indianapolis 500 marks the sixth race of the season and it is back in the month of May. The return to May has brought 35 cars to the entry list.
Chevrolet leads the way with 18 entries to Honda's 17 cars. Nine past winners are entered and if all nine make the race it would tie 1987 for the second most past Indianapolis 500 winners in the race. The 1992 race had a record ten drivers. While there is an abundance of past winners, only three rookies are entered. This will be only the second Indianapolis 500 since reunification to have fewer than four rookies. Stefano Coletti and Gabby Chaves were the only rookies in 2015.
There are not many races where we preview practice but that is the beauty of the Indianapolis 500. Each session tells us something about the field and the race winner is waiting in plain sight.
What is the schedule?
Practice opens with a seven-hour day on Tuesday May 18, starting with veterans on track from 10:00 a.m. to noon ET. The Rookie Orientation/Refresher program will take place from noon to 2:00 p.m. All cars will be allowed to take to the track at 3:00 p.m. ET and cars will be on track until 6:00 p.m.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will all be six-hour days, all start at noon and run through 6:00 p.m.
On Saturday May 22, there will be a one-hour practice session ahead of qualifying starting at 9:30 a.m. The 35 cars will be split into two groups and each group will get a half hour on track. Day one qualifications will begin at noon on Saturday and qualifying will run until 5:50 p.m. ET. This session will determine which cars will be in the Fast Nine session on Sunday, which cars will be locked into positions tenth through 30th on the grid and which entries will participate in the Last Row Shootout.
There will be another one-hour practice session on Sunday May 23 starting at 11:00 a.m. for the Last Row Shootout participants. The Last Row Shootout will take place at 1:15 p.m. with the Fast Nine following at 3:00 p.m. After qualifying is complete, there will be a two-hour practice session starting at 5:00 p.m.
What is the forecast?
There is a 30% chance of rain on Tuesday with highs around 72º F and winds around 10 mph from the Southeast. The wind should remain consistent into Wednesday but the temperature should jump up to 80º F with cloudy conditions. The chance of precipitation drops to about 20%.
The wind again will remain consistent around 10 mph on Thursday on another warm day, highs around 85º F. Friday conditions are forecasted to remain some identical to Thursday with a high of 86º F and winds from the Southwest. On both days, the chance of precipitation is set around 5%.
These mid-80s, ten-mph Southwest winds remain in the forecast into the qualifying days on Saturday and Sunday. Rain is only around a 15% chance on Saturday, but it skirts up closer to 20% on Sunday with possible thunderstorms approaching the area Sunday night.
Who will participate in Rookie Orientation and the Refresher?
We know one driver will have to complete Rookie Orientation. That is RC Enerson, who will look to make his Indianapolis 500 debut with the new Top Gun Racing in the #75 Chevrolet. Enerson shook down the car at Gateway a week ago. The Floridian has made four IndyCar starts, three in 2016 with Dale Coyne Racing and one in 2019 with Carlin. Enerson has not made an oval start since the 2016 Freedom 100, his final Indy Lights start. In his 51 Road to Indy starts, only six have come on ovals.
Stefan Wilson is back at the Speedway for the first time since 2018. Wilson is back with Andretti Autosport in the #25 Honda and he will need to complete the refresher program. J.R. Hildebrand will drive the #1 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet and he will be in the refresher session as well.
Scott McLaughlin and Pietro Fittipaldi are the only other rookies entered in this year's Indianapolis 500, but both completed their rookie orientation at the preseason open test prior to May. Other drivers who would be eligible for the refresher but also participated in the April test include Juan Pablo Montoya, Hélio Castroneves, Simona de Silvestro, Santino Ferrucci, Sage Karam, Charlie Kimball and Marco Andretti.
Who is not there?
While there are two more entries than last year, six drivers are not returning to the Speedway this year.
Oliver Askew, Spencer Pigot and Zach Veach make it three Americans who will not be returning in 2021. Askew is competing in IMSA's LMP3 class with an entry from Andretti Autosport. Askew and Pigot won the LMP3 class at the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports. Veach moved to the Lexus GT Daytona program in IMSA.
Ben Hanley and DragonSpeed are not returning after making the race the last two years. Hanley and DragonSpeed have kept their focus on LMP2 competition the FIA World Endurance Championship and the European Le Mans Series.
Fernando Alonso is back in Formula One with the Alpine organization. James Davison is focusing on competing in the NASCAR Cup Series. Davison had started the last four Indianapolis 500s and six of the last seven.
What trends should we know for the Fast Nine and the race?
Last year, Jack Harvey became the third driver since 2016 to top the no tow report for a practice and not make the Fast Nine. Ryan Hunter-Reay did it in 2017 and Tony Kanaan did it in 2018. In both those cases, Hunter-Reay and Kanaan started tenth. Harvey set a new low, starting 20th.
Harvey had the second best average no tow result over the three practice days last year. The no tow report is not an accurate barometer of who will make it. Harvey had the second best average but ended up 20th. Colton Herta had the fourth best average and was tenth. Charlie Kimball was tied for the fifth best average last year with Takuma Sato and Alexander Rossi. Sato and Rossi both made it. Kimball ended up 29th.
Marco Andretti had the tenth best average no tow result and ended up on pole position. His best no tow showing was fourth on Fast Friday. Scott Dixon was 16th and 25th in the no tow report the first two days, jumped up to second on Fast Friday and ended up second on the grid. Ryan Hunter-Reay was second, third and first in the no tow over the three days, was second in Saturday qualifying but ended up fifth in the Fast Nine session.
When looking at the overall practice results, all three drivers who topped a practice day made the Fast Nine. James Hinchcliffe topped Wednesday with Dixon and Andretti topping the next two days. Since 2015, of the 17 drivers to top the no tow report and make the Fast Nine, eight have started on row one and seven have started on row tow.
Overall practice speed was actually a better indicator of who made the Fast Nine than the no tow reports last year. Six of the top seven drivers in terms of average practice result made the Fast Nine. The one exception was Conor Daly, who had the third best average practice result at fifth, behind only Andretti and Dixon. There was a drop off for the other three Fast Nine participants. Rinus VeeKay and Graham Rahal never broke into the top ten on any of the three practice days. Rossi made it but he was 18th and 26th on the first two days before ending up ninth on Friday.
Last year was the first time Team Penske failed to put a single car in the Fast Nine session. The team's top qualifier was Josef Newgarden in 13th. Honda had eight of the nine participants last year with Rinus VeeKay the lone Chevrolet in the group. Last year was also the first time Honda has swept the front row at Indianapolis in the DW12-era.
In the DW12-era, two of the nine Indianapolis 500 winners were not in the top five for any practice days ahead of qualifying. The best Tony Kanaan was in practice in 2013 was seventh and that was on opening day. Juan Pablo Montoya's best practice day was sixth on Thursday. Last year, Takuma Sato was 13th, second and eighth over the three practice days. Only once in last ninth years has the Indianapolis 500 winner topped a practice session in the practice week. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014, who topped the Monday practice before qualifying.
Only once in the last nine years has an Indianapolis 500 winner not been in the top ten for multiple practice days. In 2018, Power was 19th, 21st, 13th and fifth over the four practice days.
What trends should we know for bumping?
Arrow McLaren SP might not be safe. The team has been in the bubble battle for three of the four years we have had bumping in the DW12-era.
The first was way back in 2013 when Katherine Legge was a late entry to the race and she got in ahead of Michel Jourdain, Jr. In 2018, James Hinchcliffe missed the race and Hinchcliffe the following year had to participate in the Last Row Shootout, but he made it in 32nd position.
A.J. Foyt Racing is known to have a car close to the bottom. In both 2013, 2015 and 2018, Foyt had a car on the last row of the grid. In 2018, James Davison was the 33rd car on the grid.
While there was no bumping last year, both Dreyer & Reinbold Racing entries were on the last row of the grid, and if there was a 34th entry, both cars would have been competing in the Last Row Shootout. In 2019, Sage Karam did participate in the Last Row Shootout with D&R.
There is no clear indication in what teams will be in the bumping fight. The seven drivers to be bumped in the DW12-era represent an additional Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry (Jourdain), a pure one-off and the smallest team entered (Lazier Partners Racing in 2015), a fourth Dale Coyne Racing entry (Pippa Mann), a full-time Schmidt Peterson Motorsports entry (James Hinchcliffe), Fernando Alonso and his McLaren one-off with Carlin assistance, and both full-time Carlin cars in 2019.
In 2013, Jourdain was in the bottom three in all six practice days he participated in. Lazier was slowest in all four practice sessions he ran in 2015. Mann was outside the top thirty in three of her four practice sessions two years later with her best practice result being 25th. Hinchcliffe started well in practice, ending up 13th of 23 cars on day one, but he dropped to 25th the next day and was 29th, 31st and 29th over the next three days.
In 2019, Alonso was 32nd, 29th and 24th in the three practice sessions he ran. The Spaniard missed Thursday practice because of an accident on Wednesday and waiting for the spare car to get a paint job. O'Ward was 22nd and 23rd, but he had an accident on Thursday, and he dropped to 34th in Friday practice. Chilton's practice speeds were mostly toward the bottom of the charts all week. He started off 27th and 30th before jumping to 15th on Thursday. He would drop to 33rd on Friday.
Two years ago, two of the three cars that missed the race lost track time due to an accident. Kyle Kaiser was in the Last Row Shootout and took the 33rd starting position after suffering an accident on Fast Friday. Any car that has trouble during the week will be on bubble watch.
If we go back before the DW12-era, the 2011 bumping fight saw four full-time Andretti cars in the mix with Ryan Hunter-Reay and Mike Conway both failing to qualify and Conway had won at Long Beach a month earlier. Full-time cars from Dale Coyne Racing and Conquest Racing were also on the outside. Meanwhile, Chip Ganassi Racing had two cars and Team Penske had a car that were in precarious situations.
In 2010, Tony Kanaan had a pair of accident force him to be a bump day qualifier and he ended up 32nd on the timesheet. Also fighting to get in on bump day were Paul Tracy in an additional KV Racing entry, Takuma Sato in a full-time KV Racing entry, Jay Howard in an additional Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing entry, Sebastián Saavedra with the debuting Bryan Herta Autosport, John Andretti in an additional Andretti Autosport entry and Bruno Junqueria was a late addition to the proceedings in an extra FAZZT Race Team entry.
Junqueira did seven practice laps, made one qualifying attempt and set the seventh fastest time of the month, solidly putting him into the field. Kanaan had to claw his way in and Saavedra had a serious accident on a practice run send him to hospital. Meanwhile, Tracy and Howard both sought to improve their times but each qualifying run was slower. Both withdrew times that would have been good enough to make the race, but instead Saavedra qualified despite never having to withdraw his time to make an additional attempt.
There are teams on paper that appear destined for heartbreak, and some will experience palpitations, but some make it with ease. Others do fall short, but size does not grant safety and every year we have bumping there is always one or two entries we have solidly penciled in the lineup fighting for their lives. There are plenty examples of those teams living a nightmare in broad daylight.
Can this prolific season continue?
There have been five winners through the first five races of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season. Three of those drivers are first-time winners. Two Chevrolet teams have won a race and neither is Team Penske. Dating back to last season, there have been seven different winners in the last seven races.
This is the first season with at least three first-time winners since 2013, when there were four first-time winners that season. Four of the five winners are under 25 years of age and all five winners represent a different nationality.
Ganassi drivers take the top two spots in the championship and all four Penske drivers are in the top ten of the championship, but six teams are represented in the top ten and the top Andretti Autosport driver is tenth.
IndyCar last had six consecutive winners to open a season in 2017, but three of those winners were Team Penske drivers. The four Honda winners did come from four different Honda teams.
Team Penske has won two of the last three Indianapolis 500s. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has yet to win a race this season and it is the defending Indianapolis 500 winner. Takuma Sato won last year, Graham Rahal was third and the team's third driver, Santino Ferrucci, was fourth last year. Rahal enters with three consecutive top five finishes while Sato's best finish is sixth.
Andretti Autosport has a victory with Colton Herta but none of its other three full-time drivers have a top five finish this season. James Hinchcliffe hasn't finished in the top fifteen this year. Last year, Andretti Autosport put four cars in the Fast Nine and Herta qualified tenth.
While A.J. Foyt Racing had a good start to the season with Sébastien Bourdais, the Frenchman has finished 19th or worse in the last three races. At Texas, Bourdais was only able to complete 55 laps in two races. Dalton Kellett has been running at the finish of every race this season, but his best finish is 18th and he has been off the lead lap in four of five races.
While we have been getting a rash of first-time winners, there are many drivers with lengthy droughts. Alexander Rossi has not won in his last 26 starts. Ryan Hunter-Reay has gone 36 races since his most recent victory. It has been 41 starts since Bourdais won the 2018 season opener. Rahal's last victory was 62 races ago. Tony Kanaan has made 91 starts since he won at Fontana in 2014. While it has only been 40 starts since Ed Carpenter last visited victory lane, it has been nearly seven years since that Saturday night in Texas. Charlie Kimball has a picket fence, 111 starts since his lone IndyCar triumph at Mid-Ohio in 2013. Marco Andretti is approaching a decade since his most recent victory and he has made 157 starts, far pass Graham Rahal's record of 124 starts between victories.
Those who are looking to make it four first-time winners this season include Scott McLaughlin, Marcus Ericsson and Jack Harvey.
Last year's Indianapolis 500 had seven different teams represented in the top ten. Andretti Autosport had the most representatives but its best finish was Hinchcliffe in seventh. The 2019 Indianapolis 500 had six different teams in the top ten. Team Penske and Andretti Autosport each had three representatives, but Team Penske had three of the top five, including the race winner, while Andretti took second and the other two were eighth and tenth.
Six of the nine Indianapolis 500 winners in the DW12-era have been first-time winners. Takuma Sato is the only driver to have won multiple Indianapolis 500s in the DW12 chassis.
