Today begins the longest two days for the 35 entrants for the 105th Indianapolis 500. Day one will witness two fights, one to be in the top nine and get to compete for the prestige of pole position, the other will to be in the top 30 and get a good night sleep even if it was a stressful day.
For those five teams outside the top 30 when Saturday concludes, the weekend will only get longer while their course of action becomes clear. Five drivers will have 90 minutes to decide who will be busy in seven days' time and who will join an esteemed, but infamous list.
There have been four practice days, over two-dozen hours of on-track action. While practice is not a clear representation of qualifying pace, it does provide us a reference for who should be in the fight at the top and who will be scrapping at the bottom.
Who is in Play For the Fast Nine?
Honda. Honda. Honda.
Honda took nine of the top ten, 12 of the top 15 and 15 of the top 20 on the overall board on Fast Friday. When it came to the no tow speeds, Honda took eight of the top ten and 12 of the top 15. Honda drivers also had nine of the top 12 four-lap averages from Fast Friday.
Chip Ganassi Racing led the way as Scott Dixon topped the overall board at 233.302 mph and Marcus Ericsson had the best four-lap average on Friday at 231.950 mph. Dixon topped two of four days overall and he was fifth and eighth in the other two days. He has the best average practice result through practice week at 3.75 and Tony Kanaan has the second best at fifth. Kanaan was fastest on Thursday while he was 11th, fifth and third on the other three days. Ericsson has the third best average at 6.5 and he has been in the top ten of all three days.
While Álex Palou is not on the heels of his teammates, he still holds the ninth best average practice position, and he has been in the top nine twice on the no tow report this week.
Alexander Rossi and Colton Herta lead the way for Andretti Autosport. Rossi was first, third and first on the three days he registered a no tow lap, though Friday was the only day he broke the top ten overall, ending up seventh. Rossi had the fourth best four-lap average on Friday. Herta had the second best four-lap average on Friday, and he was second overall. Herta has been in the top nine on the no tow report after three days and his average of tenth is sixth best.
Takuma Sato looked strong all week and he was ninth and fifth on the no tow report on the final two practice days. Sato was in the top nine overall after three of four practice days. Graham Rahal was second on the no tow report on Friday after his previous best result was 14th and he has not been in the top ten overall after any of the practice days. Sato had the sixth best four-lap average on Friday, but the team had difficulty stringing together four consecutive laps due to balance issues.
Conor Daly ranked in the top five overall in the first three practice days and he was third and fourth on the no tow report on the first two days. However, he was 19th overall on Fast Friday and 18th on the no tow. Ed Carpenter topped the no tow report on Tuesday, and he ranked in the top ten for the no tow on three days. His average no tow result was 7.75 and Carpenter had the seventh best four-lap average on Friday.
Rinus VeeKay has also showed good pace but was only in the top ten overall on Thursday when he was sixth, but his average practice result for the week was 11th, eighth best and he had the tenth best four-lap average on Friday.
Patricio O'Ward was seventh, seventh, 14th and sixth overall in each practice day, he was third on the no tow report on Friday and he had the third best four-lap average on Friday.
For the Second Consecutive Year, Where are the Chevrolets?
The Chevrolet teams are closer, but none look threatening, and Team Penske again appears out of the mix for the Fast Nine let alone for pole position.
Will Power topped Tuesday overall, but was ranked 15th, 15th and 29th over the next three days. Power registered no tow laps on three days and, though he was tenth and fourth on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, the Australian ended up 32nd on the no tow report on Friday.
Simon Pagenaud was second on the no tow report Wednesday and Thursday, but he was 20th and 26th on the other two days. Pagenaud ranked sixth overall on Tuesday, but he was 28th, 23rd and 30th in the other three days.
Josef Newgarden was fourth overall on Thursday, but his other three overall results were 14th, 30th and 22nd. Newgarden was fifth on the no tow report Thursday, but he was 11th, 18th and 17th on the other three days.
Scott McLaughlin's best practice result was 13th on Thursday. Though he was seventh and sixth on the no tow report the first two days, he was 29th and 20th the next two days.
While Patricio O'Ward should be in the mix for the Fast Nine, his Arrow McLaren SP teammate Felix Rosenqvist never cracked the top fifteen overall or on the no tow report on any of the four practice days. Rosenqvist's average practice result was 18.75 and average no tow result was 21.25.
Who is Biting Their Fingernails?
Majority of A.J. Foyt Racing organization, as J.R. Hildebrand and Charlie Kimball have two of the three lowest average no tow results through four practice days. Hildebrand was outside the top thirty on Wednesday and Thursday, but he did get up to 24th on Friday. Kimball was 34th on the no tow report on Friday. Hildebrand and Kimball are ranked 32nd and 33rd in terms of average overall practice result.
Sébastien Bourdais was 33rd, sixth, 34th and 33rd overall in each respective practice day. Bourdais was 31st on the no tow report on Friday.
Top Gun Racing and RC Enerson did not complete Rookie Orientation until early Wednesday, but the team did not get its first official practice laps in until the middle of Thursday. Enerson was slowest each day, and he was 34th and 35th on the no tow report each day he ran.
While Andretti Autosport might have two cars fighting for the Fast Nine, it has two cars closer to the bottom than it would like. Marco Andretti's no tow report results were 33rd, 31st and 23rd in the three days he registered a no tow lap. Andretti's overall results are encouraging as he was tenth on Wednesday and his average practice result was 18.5, but Andretti has not had great comfort with his car.
James Hinchcliffe was 32nd overall on Wednesday and Thursday. His average no tow result was 24.25, tied for 29th. Hinchcliffe was bumped in 2018 and he participated in the Last Row Shootout in 2019, ending up 32nd on the grid.
Sage Karam has looked comfortable and appeared to be happy most of practice week, but the margins are thin. Karam put his Dreyer & Reinbold Racing Chevrolet 21st and 22nd on the no tow report on two practice days, and he was fourth and sixth overall after the first two practice days, but he was only 28th and 31st overall on the final two days.
Juan Pablo Montoya has not looked like the Juan Pablo Montoya of old. The two-time Indianapolis 500 winner was outside the top twenty overall after the final three practice days and he had the 31st best no tow result. However, one of those days was when he was 35th on Thursday. He was 20th and 21st on the other two days he registered laps.
Who Should be Happy With Where They Are At?
Stefan Wilson should be thrilled. Wilson had the fifth best four-lap average on Fast Friday. His worst no tow result was 15th over the four practice days and his best result was eighth.
Though his results are not much better than his three teammate, Dalton Kellett has been leading the Foyt organization. Kellett's average practice results are unimpressive with an average of 27.25, but the Canadian was in the top twenty of the no tow report after three of four days with his worst day being 23rd on Thursday.
Ed Jones was ninth overall on Tuesday and Friday, but he has never been better than 17th on the no tow report. Jones did have the ninth best four-lap average on Friday.
Max Chilton will be cutting it close, as he had the 33rd best average practice result over practice week at 28.25, but his average no tow result was 15.25, 12th best over the week. Chilton was fourth and third on the no tow report after the first two practice days and the Carlin driver was 23rd on the no tow report on Friday.
After his practice accident on Thursday, Santino Ferrucci should be ecstatic that he was 14th overall on Friday, ninth on the no tow report and he had the eighth best four-lap average on Friday. Ferrucci was third overall on Thursday prior to his accident. He will also be a contender for the Fast Nine.
Jack Harvey has not been in the top fifteen overall after any of the four practice days, but Harvey's no tow results are 13th, fifth, first and 11th. His average no tow result of 7.5 is third, only behind Rossi and Dixon. The Briton could be a sleeper for the Fast Nine. Harvey's Meyer Shank Racing teammate Hélio Castroneves has not shown upper echelon speed, but his average overall practice result is 15.75, equal to Rossi and ahead of Newgarden and Rahal.
Simona de Silvestro has been positive all week, though she was 31st and 32nd on the final two practice days. She was eighth on the no tow report Tuesday and 12th on Thursday but dropped to 30th on Friday. Paretta Autosport might be in the back half of the field, but the team should have some breathing room to the bubble.
Who Has Not Yet Been Mentioned?
Pietro Fittipaldi and Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Fittipaldi's overall pace was nothing to write home about until he jumped to 18th on Fast Friday, but the Dale Coyne Racing driver was 16th and 13th on the no tow report on the first two practice days.
Hunter-Reay has the sixth best average overall practice result at tenth, but his average no tow result is 18th and his best no tow outing was tenth on Tuesday. Hunter-Reay expressed he does not have the pace to be in the Fast Nine, despite having the 11th best four-lap average on Friday. It does appear the 2014 Indianapolis 500 winner should find himself solidly in the middle of the field.
What is the Qualifying Order?
Honda will have the first eight qualifiers on Saturday with Scott Dixon leading the way before Andretti Autosport teammates Marco Andretti and Ryan Hunter-Reay. Hélio Castroneves will be the fourth qualifier ahead of Ed Jones. James Hinchcliffe and Stefan Wilson make it four Andretti qualifiers in the first seven attempts. Tony Kanaan rounds out the Honda octagonal.
The first Chevrolet out will be Josef Newgarden and Newgarden leads a Chevrolet trio of qualifiers. Rinus VeeKay and Scott McLaughlin round out the first 11 attempts. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammates Takuma Sato and Santino Ferrucci will follow McLaughlin. Sage Karam will be 14th ahead of Pietro Fittipaldi's first Indianapolis 500 qualifying attempt. Juan Pablo Montoya goes out 16th with J.R. Hildebrand in 17th.
The middle qualifier will be Will Power, the 18th driver out. Ed Carpenter and the Arrow McLaren SP teammates of Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist will follow. Max Chilton will be the 22nd qualifier with Dalton Kellett going out next and Conor Daly will round out a string of nine consecutive Chevrolet qualifiers.
The 25th qualifier will be Graham Rahal ahead of Jack Harvey, RC Enerson and Álex Palou. Simon Pagenaud will be the final Penske qualifier in 29th. Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi will go out 30th and 31st respectively. After finishing 32nd in last year's Indianapolis 500, Marcus Ericsson will be the 32nd qualifier. Simona de Silvestro makes her Indianapolis 500 qualifying return 33rd in line. A.J. Foyt Racing teammate Charlie Kimball and Sébastien Bourdais round out the qualifying line.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Conditions are favorable for both qualifying days, but temperatures will be high.
Saturday sees a high of 85º F with mostly cloudy skies. The chance precipitation is below ten percent. Winds will be coming from the west southwest at five to ten miles per hour. The day should begin around 79º F at noon before moving up to 81º F an hour later. The temperature will creep up another degree at 2:00 p.m. and then it should remain around 83º F for the rest of the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain around 86º F on Sunday with chances of precipitation increasing but remaining low at only 13%. Winds will continue coming from the West and remain between five and ten miles per hour. At 1:00 p.m., temperatures should be around 82º F while it should be around 84º F at the start of the Fast Nine.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
There will be a one-hour practice starting at 9:30 a.m. ET on Saturday with the field split into two groups. Group A will take the first half hour and Group B will have the track for the second half hour.
Day one qualifying will begin at noon and run through 5:50 p.m. The top nine drivers at the end of the first qualifying day will advance to the Fast Nine session. Positions tenth through 30th at the end of Saturday will be locked in the field and make up rows four through ten. The bottom five cars will participate in the Last Row Shootout.
Sunday begins with a one-hour practice session at 11:00 a.m. The Last Row Shootout teams will get the first half hour while the Fast Nine participants will take the final half hour.
The Last Row Shootout will begin at 1:15 p.m. ET and run through 2:30 p.m. Each entry will get one qualifying attempt, but there will be time for additional attempts. The Fast Nine session will be at 3:00 p.m. ET and each entrant will get only one attempt.
After qualifying is complete, there will be a two-hour practice for all 33 qualifiers starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.
