1. On a warm, spring day, where track conditions proved to be uncooperative to teams hoping to improve qualifying times, we cannot begin with the who is on the outside and who survived on the bubble, but we must start with the procedure and how Indianapolis 500 qualifying continues to be unnecessarily quirky.
After unsuccessful qualifying attempts from Simona de Silvestro, Will Power, Charlie Kimball and RC Enerson, Dalton Kellett sat 30th, the final guaranteed spot in the field and at the front of the priority line. Entrance into the priority line meant a car's qualifying time is withdrawn. Kellett took to the track, removing himself from 30th, however, he had no time to beat because in this current format any qualifying run that does not stay in the top 30 is no longer on the board.
Power's 229.228 mph run and de Silvestro's 228.173 mph run were not marks Kellett had to meet. At the same time, Kellett's 229.250 mph run no longer existed. Kellett was out of the race, but was guaranteed at least 30th if he completed his run. Kellett completed the ten miles at an average of 228.323 mph, nearly a mile per hour slower than his original time and he was still in the field.
Time remained on the clock and de Silvestro was able to make one final attempt, but her third run was 228.013 mph, short and Kellett stays in the race despite running slower than he did before.
I cannot blame Dalton Kellett for anything he did, although it was nearly a devastating decision that would have completely changed his Saturday night mood, but IndyCar's loophole is another glaring blemish on what was once a simple format.
IndyCar has been screwing around with the Indianapolis 500 qualifying format ever since the creation of the Indy Racing League in 1996, but every time you think you know the answers you find IndyCar has changed them. We are used to seeing a qualifying run count no matter if they put a car in the field or not. It is why the first alternate once existed. The 34th fastest time stuck around in case one of the field of 33 fell out between qualifying and race day. It didn't matter if that 34th time was from a car that was bumped or from a qualifying effort that never made the field of 33.
Eleven years ago, Sebastián Saavedra made the Indianapolis 500 on a qualifying time that was outside of the field. Why? Because Paul Tracy and Jay Howard both withdrew times good enough to make the race and then could not beat Saavedra's time. There were consequences for Tracy's and Howard's decision.
In this format, Kellett was forced to withdraw his time because he was in the priority line. He also couldn't afford to move out of line and let someone else go, but because Kellett was 30th and because he took to the track late enough in the day, he basically got to ensure he would be in the race despite going slower than his existing times.
Qualifying runs should count until they are withdrawn or that car sets a better time. What would have happened if Kellett had crashed on his qualifying attempt and ended the day? He withdrew his time and IndyCar already said Power's 229.228 did not exist. Based on IndyCar's rule, only 29 cars would be in the race and four spots would have to be decided on Sunday in the Last Row Shootout. IndyCar would have to run it that way to be consistent with its own practice.
What happens if it rains all day tomorrow and the Last Row Shootout cannot take place? IndyCar already said those qualifying runs do not exist. Power's 229.228 and de Silvestro's 228.013 do not exist. IndyCar cannot go back and conveniently use those times to set the final row when it already decided those times were no longer on the board. It also means a Last Row Shootout would be run no matter what, even if it meant running it Monday or Tuesday or Sunday morning before the race if Speedway, Indiana saw seven days and nights of rain.
I don't like this loophole and it shouldn't exist. It has been over 25 years since the split and over 25 years since Indianapolis 500 qualifications have been bastardized on a regular basis. I like the Fast Nine and I am fine with the Last Row Shootout, but there is no reason why IndyCar should be picking and choosing which qualifying attempts are on the board and which ones are not. If a qualifying run is complete, it remains on the board. It should be that simple.
2. Every year we have bumping, there is one name we do not expect to be there, and Will Power is the lucky contestant in 2021.
It doesn't make any sense how Team Penske is this far off. The team hasn't been great this week, but it hasn't been bad to the point Power could not be in the top 30. Scott McLaughlin is leading the way in 17th, Josef Newgarden is 21st and Simon Pagenaud is 26th. None of them are doing well, but it is still shocking Power could not at least be 30th.
The good news is I think Power will be fine for tomorrow. I know that is foolish to say considering the Australian finds himself in this position to begin with, but he just needs to beat two cars to make the race. I don't see three of the other four cars in this session beating Power. One could, but I don't see two running faster than Power let alone three.
3. On top of Power's participation in this group, we have the Penske-affiliated Paretta Autosport and Simona de Silvestro. I thought she would at least find herself in the 20s, somewhere around where Pagenaud ended up in 26th. I thought the Penske connection would get Paretta and de Silvestro into the field and I am not sure we can even guarantee that.
De Silvestro had solid first lap speed, but she lost significant time over four laps. On her second qualifying attempt, she opened with a lap at 230.201 mph but dropped to 228.568 mph on lap two, lost another quarter mile per hour on lap three and was down to 226.548 mph on the final lap. That attempt was technically faster than Kellett's second attempt, but de Silvestro cannot afford to lose than much time over four laps. She needed her final three laps to remain within a miles per hour of her first lap. If she did that, she likely would have made the field.
4. Sage Karam again finds himself in the Last Row Shootout. Two years ago, I wrote that Karam was on borrowed time. He and Dreyer & Reinbold Racing have been a constant presence at Indianapolis, but each year they dip closer and closer to the bubble. One of these years they will end up on the wrong side of it and this could be it.
No one wants to see that because D&R has remained a great steward to IndyCar as a yearly Indianapolis 500 one-off since 2013. For years, I have wished for D&R to return to full-time competition like how Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing returned to IndyCar full-time with the DW12 chassis in 2012 and I would love to see Karam get a full-time shot at IndyCar, but each year this team remains stagnant. It has kept them in the field but I fear one off year or two and then the program disappears for good.
If there is any hope for Karam it is his first attempt was 229.158 mph and he waved off two attempts that averaged 229.016 mph and 228.880 mph. He has life.
5. After the week A.J. Foyt Racing had, it is a victory that only Charlie Kimball must compete in the Last Row Shootout. For most of the week I expected at least two Foyt cars to be in the battle at the bottom. I was even wondering what the team would do if all four cars were at the bottom, assuring at least one would miss.
Kimball's first attempt was 228.401 mph, better than all three of de Silvestro's attempts. He could silently make the field, but I feel like the ceiling is higher for de Silvestro than it is for Kimball.
6. RC Enerson and Top Gun Racing are not making this race. I know that is stupid to say but the team's only qualifying run was 227.410 mph. He is a mile per hour away from being a mile per hour away. It is tough to watch, and I have to give credit to the team for trying, but this was a late entry, it has no technical support. I am all for the little guys giving it a shot, but the team lost its first two practice days. It was always an uphill battle that was never going to go in its favor.
I hope the team makes a second attempt and perhaps gets some testing in. It has been a while since we have seen an entry this underfunded show up for qualifying. It didn't do poorly but considering the strength of the current IndyCar grid it is not even in the ballpark.
7. Here is what we know about the Last Row Shootout: It is 75 minutes multiple attempts will be allowed and the qualifying order will be based on the original qualifying draw.
That means Karam will be the first car out because he was 14th in the original draw. Power is the second qualifier after drawing 18th and Enerson will be third, as his original draw position was 27th. De Silvestro drew 33rd and she will be the penultimate first attempt and Kimball will be the final runner after he was 34th.
Once everyone gets an attempt, the line will open for any more additional attempts with the gun going off at 2:30 p.m. ET.
8. Hey! Let's go over the Fast Nine. Scott Dixon made the first attempt of the day; it was the fastest run of the day at 231.828 mph and he didn't take another lap. Colton Herta made two attempts and he picked up her 1.4 mph on his second run, slotting him second at 231.648 mph. Tony Kanaan was slightly off at 231.639 mph and Ed Carpenter rounded out the top four at 231.616 mph.
9. Rinus VeeKay had a second attempt that moved him to fifth at 231.483 mph and Hélio Castroneves' first run with Meyer Shank Racing sees him in sixth at 231.164 mph. Leaving Team Penske doesn't look that bad after all.
10. Álex Palou made the questionable decision to make another qualifying attempt from the second lane, the safe lane where a driver doesn't have to withdraw a time and he had a heavy accident in turn two on his third lap. Palou's original qualifying run of 231.145 mph stands, and he remains in the Fast Nine, but I didn't agree with the decision.
I understand wanting to get a little more insurance over tenth spot, and it was a tight group from Castroneves in sixth to Alexander Rossi in tenth, just 0.118 mph covered those cars. Over ten miles that is just 0.0798 seconds, but I think this is a case where it doesn't pay off to be proactive.
I know he was in the safe lane and his time counts, but now his car is being repaired and we do not know if that car will be close to where it was before the accident. I get going out if you are ninth or just on the outside, but Palou shouldn't have rolled those dice and he admitted he made the mistake asking to go out again while the team was not comfortable with it.
11. For a guy who had good times all week but expressed displeasure with his pace and said he wasn't going to make the Fast Nine, Ryan Hunter-Reay looked good clocking in at eighth at the end of the day. Hunter-Reay will likely admit the draw was in his favor and going out third is likely what got him this spot, but his car hasn't looked that bad. I think the draw got him an extra five or six spots, but he still would have qualified in the top 15.
12. Oh! And Marcus Ericsson made it four Ganassi cars in the top nine as Ericsson was ninth. He has been quiet all week. He has been quiet his entire time with Chip Ganassi Racing. This is a good showing for him and if there was ever a time to have a breakout race, this is it.
13. Let's go over the rest of the field.
Alexander Rossi missed out on the Fast Nine by 0.0393 seconds. This feels like another year where Rossi's draw killed him. I think if Rossi had drawn third in place of Hunter-Reay, Rossi would have been mid-231 and solidly in the Fast Nine. It is still a good run.
Ed Jones was one of the final guys to get a shot at the Fast Nine from the safe lane before the bubble battle commenced in the priority line and he went to 11th. Not bad form Jones, but he qualified well the last time he was at Indianapolis in 2019 and then didn't do much in the race.
Patricio O'Ward was 12th. That isn't bad but I suspect Arrow McLaren SP thought it would have gotten into the Fast Nine.
Pietro Fittipaldi was the top qualifying rookie in 13th, and he deserves a lot of praise. He looked good.
Felix Rosenqvist ended up 14th, which is respectable compared to his teammate.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing did not get any cars into the Fast Nine and that is a shocker when considering how these cars looked in practice. The RLLR cars were having balance issues over a four-lap run, but I would have expected it to better than Takuma Sato in 15th, Graham Rahal in 18th and Santino Ferrucci in 23rd.
Considering how James Hinchcliffe's week was going, I bet he is satisfied with 16th.
14. We touched on Team Penske above, but I think we need to hit on them again. I don't get it. This team went from controlling the Indianapolis 500 in 2018 and 2019 to a non-factor in qualifying the last two years. I expect a big change to come, but to have no cars come close to the Fast Nine after having at least one make it for every year from 2009 through 2019 is staggering.
15. Another year and another dismal qualifying run after strong practice results for Conor Daly. This year is worse than last year because the other two Ed Carpenter Racing cars made it.
Jack Harvey had a right rear tire basically shedding on his first qualifying attempt and his first attempt was the slowest run of the day at 225.496 mph. However, once a proper set of tires shod his car, Harvey went to 20th. I think that lost first attempt hurt his chances to go for the Fast Nine. On that second run, he just had to put it in the field and he quickly did it, but he could not afford many more attempts after that.
16. A.J. Foyt Racing does deserve some praise because J.R. Hildebrand got up to 22nd on what was his best run of the month. It was never in doubt. Sébastien Bourdais was only 27th, but it felt like 229.744 mph was going to be enough. It wasn't great but he didn't have to get into the traffic jam for 30th either.
Again, Dalton Kellett held on. On a day where Team Penske has its act together, Kellett is likely in the Last Row Shootout, but he benefited today.
17. Who are remaining?
Juan Pablo Montoya is giving off a throwback vibe to when Gordon Johncock, Tom Sneva, Johnny Rutherford and Al Unser made their final attempts. It is in an oddly high-numbered car with a part-time team and the speed isn't great or there at all. I am not sure how many more times Montoya is going to return to this. Enjoy this year because it could Montoya's last at the Speedway.
Marco Andretti had no confidence all week. I was wondering why Andretti didn't at least run Texas as a shakedown for himself. For a guy who has fallen backward at the start of this race the last two years, including failing to lead a lap from pole position, I can't see how this year will be any better.
Stefan Wilson made it, but that was closer than expected. I didn't think he would be fighting for the Fast Nine, even though his practice speeds were encouraging yesterday, but I thought he could be 18th to 22nd. He made it, but it was closer than he probably would have liked.
Max Chilton made it! Chilton sounded happy all week. I didn't think he would show great speed. I didn't think he would crack the top half of the field, but I thought he could be somewhere between 22nd and 30th. I always felt Chilton was going to make the top 30 and avoid the Last Row Shootout.
18. This was the most relaxed I have been for an Indianapolis 500 qualifying day than I can ever remember. I was more relaxed than the years when there were only 33 cars. Figure that one out!?
Do I not care anymore? Is this race meaningless? Have I found completeness with the universe? I don't know! At no point today did I feel my heart rate increase to jackrabbit mode, even when the top 30 traffic jam took place. Even with a Team Penske car in the mix I remained calm. This was dramatic and yet it didn't cause any flutters in my stomach.
Let's see if tomorrow is any different.
