Track Walk: 105th Indianapolis 500

This Memorial Day weekends\ feels a little more familiar

The sixth round of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season is the 105th Indianapolis 500. Thirty-five drivers competed for 33 spots in the lone double points race on the calendar during qualifying last weekend. Two drivers have been sent home and we are left with 17 Hondas and 16 Chevrolets in the field of 33. With nine past Indianapolis 500 winners in this year's race, it ties the 1987 race for the second most all-time. Two drivers are making their Indianapolis 500 debut. One is a champion from the Southern Hemisphere. The other is a famous name and will become the third member of his family to start this race. Fifteen nationalities are represented in this year's race, a new record, breaking the previous record of 13, which happened for three consecutive years from 2012 through 2014.

Coverage
Time: Pre-race coverage begins at 9:00 a.m. ET on NBCSN. NBC's coverage of the Indianapolis 500 will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET.
TV Channel: NBC.

Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Kelli Stavast and Marty Snider will work pit lane. Jimmie Johnson and Steve Letarte will provide additional pit lane coverage. Mike Tirico and Danica Patrick will participate in pre-race and post-race coverage.

Indianapolis 500 Weekend Schedule
Carb Day:
Practice - 11:00 a.m.–1:00 p.m. ET (2 hours). NBCSN will have live coverage.
Sunday:
Race - 12:45 p.m. ET (200 laps).

On to Carb Day

Friday will be the final chance for teams to tune their cars and work out any kinks. It also provides one final chance to see who is on the right track and who could be lost entering race day. 

Practice does not always paint an accurate practice. After winning pole position, and being in the top three of every practice prior to Carb Day last year, Marco Andretti was 28th in the final practice session. In the race, Andretti dropped from the front immediately, never led a lap and ended up 13th. Similarly, Conor Daly was in the top ten of the first four practice sessions, but Daly dropped to 18th on Carb Day and was running in the middle of the field when he had an accident off of turn four.

On the reverse side of things, Scott Dixon was all in the top three of the first four practice sessions, was second on Carb Day and ended up finishing second after leading majority of the race. Takuma Sato's practice results in 2020 were a little scattered, opening the week in 13th before running second and eighth before qualifying. Sato dropped to 26th in the post-qualifying practice but jumped back up to fourth on Carb Day.

Then there are the unexplainable results. Graham Rahal's best practice result last year was 14th and he was 25th on Carb Day, but Rahal was third after 500 miles. Santino Ferrucci was fifth in the post-qualifying practice, but he was 19th, 21st, 23rd and 21st in the other practice sessions and still finished fourth. Patricio O'Ward found speed all week. Each practice result got better, and it ended with O'Ward eighth in the post-qualifying practice and fastest on Carb Day. He would finish seventh. 

Dixon has been on top all week this year. He led the Wednesday and Friday practices, he was fifth on Thursday and in the post-qualifying practice, and his worst practice result was eighth on opening day. The entire Ganassi field has been consistent. Tony Kanaan has been in the top five of the last four practice sessions and his worst result was 11th. Marcus Ericsson has been in the top ten of every practice day. Álex Palou topped the post-qualifying practice. 

After ending up 19th on Fast Friday and qualifying, Conor Daly was back up to third in the post-qualifying practice, his fourth practice session in the top five. Daly's teammate and front row start Rinus VeeKay had his worst practice result, 23rd in the post-qualifying practice. Ed Carpenter also had his worst practice result at 25th on Sunday evening. 

Andretti Autosport teammates and Fast Nine participants Colton Herta and Ryan Hunter-Reay each had their worst practice result in post-qualifying practice. Hunter-Reay was 32nd after his average practice result was tenth over the first four practice days. Herta was building up over practice week, finishing tenth and second on Thursday and Friday, but he ended up 29th in the Sunday evening session. Coincidentally, the slowest two Andretti cars in qualifying were the fastest two in the post-qualifying practice. Stefan Wilson was eighth and Marco Andretti was tenth, Andretti's second day finishing in the top ten. 

Takuma Sato remained consistent after qualifying, ending up sixth in the evening practice, his fourth practice in the top ten out of five. Graham Rahal picked up his best practice result on Sunday evening, ending up seventh. 

Last Row Shootout participant Will Power led the Team Penske quartet in 11th. Scott McLaughlin was 15th with Josef Newgarden in 26th and Simon Pagenaud in 28th. 

A driver who has topped at least one of the pre-qualifying practice days has not gone on to win the Indianapolis 500 since Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014. However, Simon Pagenaud topped the post-qualifying Monday practice in 2019, six days before the Frenchman's victory. 

Tony Kanaan has topped Carb Day in three of the last five years and four in the last seven years. The last driver to top Carb Day and go on to win the race was Dario Franchitti in 2012.

Weather Report

Unfortunately, Carb Day might not go as planned. 

The forecast calls for rain Friday morning into the early afternoon. There could be a break in the afternoon and IndyCar has already said it is making contingency plans and IndyCar president Jay Frye has left the door open to a session on Saturday if necessary. Frye admitted Saturday's tight schedule would make a practice session difficult. 

Temperatures will drop significantly from practice week and qualifying weekend. Friday calls for a high of 68º F with winds from the West at 10-15 mph. Saturday drops into the 50s with a high of 59º F and winds remaining consistent at 10-15 mph, but from the North-Northeast. 

Sunday will be warmer, with a high of 71º F, and winds from five to ten miles per hour from the North-Northeast. The best news is chance of precipitation remains below 10% for both Saturday and Sunday.

Dixon's Place in History

We know Scott Dixon's legacy is rather undisputed entering the 105th Indianapolis 500. 

Dixon has six championships, and he will make his 19th Indianapolis 500 start as the NTT IndyCar Series championship leader. He sits on 51 victories, third all-time and one behind Mario Andretti for second. Earlier this season, Dixon moved up to fourth all-time in laps led. His victory at Texas made Dixon made him the first driver to win a race in 19 different seasons. He is currently second all-time in runner-up finishes, second all-time in podium finishes and second all-time in top five finishes. On top of Dixon's place in IndyCar history, the New Zealander is looking to put himself among the all-time greatest in the Indianapolis 500. 

With a four-lap average of 231.685 mph, Dixon won his fourth Indianapolis 500 pole position. He became the fifth driver with at least four pole positions in event history. This is his third Indianapolis 500 pole position since 2015. His only Indianapolis 500 victory came from pole position in 2008. Dixon could become just the third driver to win multiple Indianapolis 500s from pole position. Rick Mears won three times from pole position (1979, 1988 and 1991). Johnny Rutherford won from pole position in 1976 and 1980. 

Last year, Dixon led 111 laps on his way to a runner-up finish to Takuma Sato. It was the fifth time Dixon has led the most laps in the Indianapolis 500, a new record, breaking a tie with Mario Andretti, who led the most laps in four Indianapolis 500s. Those 111 laps moved Dixon up to third all-time in Indianapolis 500 laps led. His 563 laps led have him seven laps ahead of Andretti and Dixon is 37 laps away from becoming the third driver to lead 600 laps in the Indianapolis 500. He is also 82 laps led away from surpassing Al Unser for the most laps led in the history of the event. 

A top five finish would make Dixon just one of five drivers with at least nine top five finishes in the Indianapolis 500, joining Al Unser, A.J. Foyt, Rick Mears and Ted Horn. A runner-up finish would make him the all-time leader with four runner-up finishes in this grand race. He is currently tied with Al Unser, Bill Holland, Harry Hartz, Jim Rathmann, Tom Sneva, Wilbur Shaw and Hélio Castroneves on three runner-up finishes. 

Victory would make Dixon the 21st driver with at least two Indianapolis 500 victories. It has been 14 years since Dixon's one and only Indianapolis 500 victory and a victory in this year's race would be the second most Indianapolis 500s between victories for a driver. Juan Pablo Montoya had 15 races between his two victories, but Montoya only started one of those 15 races in-between. Dixon has run every year at Indianapolis since 2003. 

Sato Shoots For Three

After becoming the 20th multi-time Indianapolis 500 winner in 2020, Takuma Sato has the task of trying to become the 11th driver with at least three victories in this race. 

Sato is in a good run of form at Indianapolis. He has won two of the last four races and he is the only driver with multiple Indianapolis 500 victories in the last decade. He was also third in 2018. His three top five finishes have all come in the last four years after his best finish in his first seven Indianapolis 500 starts was 13th. 

Sato could be following a Dario Franchitti-esque path. All three of Franchitti's victories came in a five start span from 2007 through 2012. Franchitti was not in the 2008 race. Hélio Castroneves won three of his first nine starts. All three of Wilbur Shaw's victories came over four races from 1937 to 1940. Mauri Rose also had three victories in four starts. Rose won as a co-driver with Floyd Davis in 1941 before winning solo in 1947 and 1948.

With 78 laps led, Sato has the fewest laps led among the 20 multi-time winners. He is the only multi-time winner with fewer than 100 laps led. Al Unser, Jr. has the next fewest laps led with 110. 

This is the second consecutive year, and third in his last four, Sato enters the Indianapolis 500 without a top five finish in any of the races preceding it. He has won a race in each of the last four seasons, but he has only finished in the top ten once in the race preceding one of his victory and that was seventh at Austin before winning at Barber in 2019. Sato was 16th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Sato became only the third driver to win multiple Indianapolis 500s after the age of 40 last year, joining Bobby Unser and Emerson Fittipaldi. Sato could become the first driver to win three Indianapolis 500s after the age of 40.

Young vs. Old

The youths have controlled IndyCar this season. Four of the five winners were 24 years old or younger and three of the winners were under the age of 22 when they made it to victory lane. While this abundance of youth is tasting the fruits of victory in 2021, Indianapolis has treated the elder statesmen with more respect. 

The only two Indianapolis 500 winners since reunification who were under the age of 30 were Scott Dixon in 2008 and Alexander Rossi in 2016. Of the 13 winners since reunification, only two of them won with fewer than six Indianapolis 500 starts. One of those was Rossi's debutant victory but the other was Juan Pablo Montoya who won in his third start in 2015, but at 39 years old. 

Three of the winners this season happen to be the three drivers who could set the record for youngest Indianapolis 500 winner and the youngest two drivers in this race are starting on the front row. 

Colton Herta qualified second, his best starting position and his third consecutive year starting in the top ten of the Indianapolis 500. Herta led 97 of 100 laps at St. Petersburg a month ago and he was fifth in the second Texas race at the start of May. It has been a teeter-totter year for the American. He was caught in the opening lap accident at Barber and suffering a wheel bearing failure in the first Texas race. An off-track excursion took him out of a top ten finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Rinus VeeKay could win at just 20 years old and he qualified third, the youngest front row starter in the history of the race. VeeKay is coming off his first career victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The last two years Indianapolis hosted two races in May saw the road course race winner take victory in the Indianapolis 500. However, no driver has had their first two victories come in consecutive races since A.J. Allmendinger in 2006. 

Patricio O'Ward is fourth in the championship, and he won the most recent oval race at Texas, but he ended up 12th in qualifying. O'Ward oval results are remarkable. He has been on the podium in his last four oval starts. He has five top five finishes in eight career oval starts and he was sixth in last year's Indianapolis 500, earning him Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year honors. The Mexican worst oval finish is 12th. 

On the flip side of the youth, the age and experience again looks strong at Indianapolis. 

Tony Kanaan is back with Chip Ganassi Racing and he qualified fifth. This is Kanaan's best Indianapolis 500 starting position since he started fourth in 2015. This is only his second time starting in the top five in the Indianapolis 500 in the last 13 years. He is looking to pick up where he left off when he was last with Ganassi. Kanaan had finishes of fourth and fifth at Indianapolis in 2016 and 2017. He has led a lap in a record 14 Indianapolis 500s.

Hélio Castroneves makes his 12th attempt at his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory, and it will come with Meyer Shank Racing, Castroneves' first Indianapolis appearance with a team other than Team Penske. The Brazilian will start eighth. Though Castroneves has shown good pace and experience has been leading the way at Indianapolis, the Brazilian has not been the benefactor. In his three Indianapolis 500 starts since becoming a part-time entrant, he has finished 27th, 18th and 11th. 

Juan Pablo Montoya has not been at Indianapolis since 2017, but he is looking for his third Indianapolis 500 victory in six Indianapolis 500 starts. Montoya could join Bobby Unser and Rick Mears as the only drivers with Indianapolis 500 victories in three different decades. He could join A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Bobby Unser as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 with three different teams. Unfortunately, Montoya continued a bad trend in qualifying. His starting position has gotten worse for a fifth consecutive Indianapolis 500. He will start 24th after starting second, tenth, 15th, 17th and 18th in his first five Indianapolis 500 starts.

Long-Time Coming

Between the multi-time winners and youngsters, there is a batch of middle-aged drivers who have spent a healthy portion of their lives running this race but have yet to pick up an Indianapolis 500 victory. Five drivers will be making at least their tenth Indianapolis start this year and have yet to taste the milk.

Ed Carpenter makes his 18th Indianapolis 500 start from fourth on the grid. Carpenter has started on one of the first two rows in six of the last nine Indianapolis 500s. He has only two top five finishes in his career, a fifth in 2008 and second in 2018. Carpenter has led 146 laps in his Indianapolis 500 career, the fifth most all-time among drivers without a victory.  

Graham Rahal rolls off from 18th in this year's race for what is Rahal's 14th start. This is the eighth time Rahal has started on row six or worse for the Indianapolis 500. He has finished ahead of his starting position in seven of his Indianapolis 500 starts, including going from eighth to third last year. He has only four top ten finishes in this race

Josef Newgarden makes his tenth Indianapolis 500 start this year and the two-time IndyCar champion's results have been getting better over the years. After averaging a finish of 27.667 over his first three Indianapolis 500 starts, Newgarden has three top five finishes and five top ten finishes in his last six trips to Indianapolis with his worst finish being 19th. 

J.R. Hildebrand will be making his 11th Indianapolis 500 attempt and this one will be his first with A.J. Foyt Racing. This is the fourth different team Hildebrand has competed with at Indianapolis. Remembered for his painful runner-up finish as a rookie in 2011, after he collided with the turn four wall while leading coming to the checkered flag, Hildebrand has four top ten finishes in this race, but he has finished outside the top ten in his last four Indianapolis 500 starts.

Marco Andretti is 34 years old and he will be making his 16th Indianapolis 500 start. Andretti enters with three consecutive finishes outside the top ten in this race. He failed to lead a lap last year after starting on pole position. Twenty-fifth is his second worst starting position in this race, as he started 27th in 2011. He has led 141 laps in this race, the sixth most all-time among those without a victory. 

The Championship Picture

While the focus is on this race, the championship remains in play and after Indianapolis 500 qualifying, a few drivers on top got a little richer. 

On top of the $100,000 Scott Dixon earned for pole position, he also picked up nine championship points, increasing his championship lead to 185 points. Álex Palou remains second, and with a sixth place starting position Palou scored four points, lifting his total to 167 points, but his deficit to his Ganassi teammate grew to 18 points. 

Josef Newgarden and Patricio O'Ward remain third and fourth, but they are now 37 points and 39 points behind Dixon respectively. Rinus VeeKay's third place starting position gave him seven points and lifted him into the top five in the championship on 142 points, 43 points off Dixon. Graham Rahal dropped to sixth on 137 points. 

Simon Pagenaud remains seventh on 130 points, but Colton Herta leaps from tenth to eighth after Herta qualified second and picked up eight points. The Californian now has 125 points, two more than Scott McLaughlin and Will Power drops to tenth on 118 points. 

Marcus Ericsson's point for qualifying ninth gets him to 100 points, but the Swede remains 11th in the championship. Takuma Sato is 12th on 98 points with Jack Harvey on 97 points in 13th. Alexander Rossi sits on 91 points, 14th in the championship. Romain Grosjean rounds out the top fifteen with 81 points, but Grosjean is not running the Indianapolis 500. 

Sébastien Bourdais has 79 points, and Ryan Hunter-Reay picks up three points for qualifying seventh, but it does not move Hunter-Reay up in the championship. It only increases Hunter-Reay's total to 78 points. Felix Rosenqvist is 18th on 71 points, Ed Jones is 19th with 67 points and James Hinchcliffe rounds out the top twenty on 56 points. Conor Daly and Dalton Kellett are tied on 48 points.

Tony Kanaan and Ed Carpenter have their own little championship battle brewing. Both drivers are only contesting the oval races and both made the Fast Nine. One point separated the two entering qualifying and they leave tied on 39 points as Carpenter scored six points for qualifying fourth and Kanaan scored five points for qualifying fifth. 

Jimmie Johnson has 25 points in 25th, but Johnson is not in this race. Pietro Fittipaldi has 24 points while Max Chilton enters with 16 points. Juan Pablo Montoya has nine points from the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Charlie Kimball did not qualify for the Indianapolis 500, but he does have eight points from the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This is Hélio Castroneves' first race of the season, but his eighth-place qualifying effort has spotted him an extra two points in the championship.

Carb Night Classic

While IndyCar is at the 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the Road to Indy will be at the 0.686-mile Indianapolis Raceway Park for its Carb Night Classic event. 

Indy Pro 2000 will run the Freedom 90 and 12 cars are entered for this year's race.

Braden Eves enters as the championship leader with 171 points. Eves has two victories this season and he was on the podium in all three races on the IMS road course earlier this month. However, Christian Rasmssuen's two victories on the IMS road course has the Dane only three points behind the American. Artem Petrov is 27 points behind his Exclusive Autosport teammate Eves and Petrov won the second IMS road course race. 

Reece Gold has four podium finishes this season, but he is still looking for his first victory. Gold sits on 137 points. Hunter McElrea failed to pick up a top five finish on the IMS road course and McElrea dropped to fifth in the championship on 117 points. Enaam Ahmed rounds out the top six on 100 points.

Manuel Sulaimán started on pole position last year for the Freedom 90 and he led the first 30 laps before Kody Swanson took the lead. Sulaimán would go onto finish second and the Mexican enters this year's race with 90 points, two ahead of Kyffin Simpson, who picked up his first career podium finish in the second IMS road course race. 

Jacob Abel, Wyatt Brichacek, Jack William Miller and James Roe round out the entry list. 

The Freedom 90 will be at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday May 28. 

Twenty-four cars are entered for U.S. F2000's Freedom 75 from Indianapolis Raceway Park.

Yuven Sundaramoorthy re-took the championship lead with his two victories and a third on the IMS road course. The Wisconsinite has 154 points and the Pabst Racing driver has a 13-point lead over DEForce Racing's Kiko Porto. Porto won the third race on the IMS road course. Neither of the championship top two had great races last year at IRP. Sundaramoorthy was ninth while Porto was a lap down in 14th.

Christian Brooks dropped to third in the championship on 138 points, tied with Josh Pierson, after Brooks was disqualified from the third race after failing technical inspection. Brooks was second on the road and Brooks' exclusion lifted Pierson to second. Michael d'Orlando has four consecutive top five finishes and he rounds out the top five on 117 points. 

After opening the season with a second and a first, Prescott Campbell's best finish is sixth and he has 101 points, four points ahead of Spike Kohlbecker. Josh Green sits on 91 points, four ahead of Thomas Nepveu and Billy Frazer rounds out the top ten on 74 points. 

The Freedom 75 will open Friday night's activities at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Fast Facts

This will be the 59th IndyCar race on May 30 and the first since Carlos Muñoz picked up his first and only IndyCar victory in a rain-shortened race at Belle Isle. 

This is the first Indianapolis 500 on May 30 since Dario Franchitti won in 2010. 

This year's race falls on the 44th anniversary of A.J. Foyt's fourth Indianapolis 500 victory.

This will be the 174th 500-mile race in IndyCar history.

A total of 97 drivers have won a 500-mile IndyCar race. Thirty-three drivers have won multiple 500-mile races.

Thirteen different nationalities have won a 500-mile race. 

The United States has produced the most 500-mile race winners with 66. Brazil and the United Kingdom has each produced seven 500-mile race winners. Canada has had four, Italy and France have each had three winners. The Netherlands, Sweden, Mexico, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia and Japan have each produced one winner. 

Chevrolet has won 12 of 19 500-mile races since 2012. 

Six of the last ten Indianapolis 500s have been completed in under three hours. Only five of the first 87 Indianapolis 500s that went the distance were completed in under three hours.

This year's grid features...

11 Americans. 

Three Britons. 

Three Brazilians, though one was born in Miami, Florida. 

Two New Zealanders.

Two Swedes.

Two Frenchmen.

Two Canadians.

One Dutchman. 

One Spaniard.

One Emirati. 

One Mexican. 

One Japanese.

One Colombian. 

One Australian and...

One Swiss.

Ed Carpenter, Josef Newgarden, Jack Harvey or Colton Herta could become the first driver to win the Freedom 100 and the Indianapolis 500.

Simon Pagenaud, Sébastien Bourdais, Marco Andretti, Rinus VeeKay or Patricio O'Ward could join Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Will Power, Colton Herta and Scott Dixon as the only drivers to win both on the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Josef Newgarden or Rinus VeeKay could join Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon as the only drivers to win an IndyCar race on the IMS oval and road course. 

The average starting position for the Indianapolis 500 winner is 7.4326 with a median of fourth. 

The last three winners have started on the front row. It is the longest streak for front row winners since 2006 through 2010.

The average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 13.615 with a median of ten. 

Last year's race had 21 lead changes, the fewest in the DW12-era and the fewest since 13 in 2010.

The driver who led the most laps has won only two of the last ten Indianapolis 500s, Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014 and Simon Pagenaud in 2019. 

The average number of cautions in the Indianapolis 500 is 7.673 with a median of eight. The average number of caution laps is 44.478 with a median of 43.5. 

Only one of the last 30 Indianapolis 500s have had fewer than five cautions. The 2019 race had only four cautions.

This will be the 72nd Indianapolis 500 victory for Firestone. 

This will be the 21st Indianapolis 500 victory for Dallara, extending Dallara's record for most Indianapolis 500 victories for a chassis manufacture.

If Honda wins the race, it will be the manufacture's 14th Indianapolis 500 victory. Honda is currently second all-time in victories for engine manufactures. 

If Chevrolet wins the race, it will tie Miller for third all-time on 12 Indianapolis 500 victories. 

Possible Milestones:

Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.

Scott Dixon is one podium finish away from his 125th podium finish.

Will Power is one victory away from the 40-victory milestone.

Alexander Rossi is one podium finish away from his 25th podium finish. 

Hélio Castroneves is one top five finish away from breaking a tie with Al Unser, Jr. for fourth all-time on 141 top five finishes. 

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 43 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead one lap to reach 2,500 laps led milestone.

Juan Pablo Montoya needs to lead 133 laps to reach 2,500 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 51 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

Alexander Rossi needs to lead 198 laps to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 58 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.

Colton Herta needs to lead 149 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.

 

Predictions

Scott Dixon wins the race, but he does not break Al Unser's record most all-time laps led. Dixon will get to 600 laps led though. There will be at least 32 lead changes. Alexander Rossi will be the top Andretti Autosport finisher. The average age of the top five finishers will be over 33.5 years old. Team Penske will have two finishers in the top ten. Will Power will be the biggest mover in the race. Patricio O'Ward will not be the top Arrow McLaren SP finisher. Max Chilton will complete all 500 miles. At least two drivers get their first career top ten finish in the Indianapolis 500. Marco Andretti will not be the worst Andretti Autosport finisher. There will not be an accident coming to a restart. Sleeper: Marcus Ericsson.