Track Walk: Eighth Grand Prix of Indianapolis

The second leg of the IndyCar season begins on the IMS road course

The fifth round of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season takes us to Speedway, Indiana and the Eighth Grand Prix of Indianapolis from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. Returning to May, the race has expanded back to 85 laps and leadoffs proceedings ahead of the Indianapolis 500. This year's race again sees 26 entries with a few additional entries. Juan Pablo Montoya is back for his first IndyCar race since the 2017 Indianapolis 500 driving the #86 Arrow McLaren SP Chevrolet. It is Montoya's first race with McLaren since the 2006 United States Grand Prix at Indianapolis, his final Formula One start. Charlie Kimball will also be on the grid in the #11 Chevrolet for A.J. Foyt Racing. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 2:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 15 with green flag scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kevin Lee will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Friday:
First Practice: 9:30 a.m. ET (45 minutes)*

Second Practice: 1:00 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 4:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have tape-delayed coverage at 6:00 p.m. ET)*
Saturday:
Warm-Up: 10:45 a.m. ET (30 minutes)*
Race: 2:45 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock

Penske's Palace

Between the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Harvest Grand Prix, Team Penske has won seven of nine IndyCar races held on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Two of its drivers have at least three victories on the track. 

Will Power leads all drivers with four victories on the IMS road course, including a victory from pole position in the second Harvest Grand Prix last October. Power led every lap that Saturday afternoon and it moved him into a tie with Al Unser for fifth all-time with 39 IndyCar victories. In the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Power has three victories, and he has led 210 of 581 laps in the seven-year history of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. That is 36.144% of the laps and when you take into consideration his 75 laps led in the second Harvest Grand Prix race that laps led percentage goes up to 38.461% of every IndyCar lap on the IMS road course. Power has led five laps more on the IMS road course than the next five drivers combined! 

Simon Pagenaud may have three victories on the IMS road course and rank second in laps led on the track, but he has led just 68 laps and 57 of those came in his 2016 victory. He won the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis with only six laps led and his famous victory in 2019 came with only five laps led. 

Josef Newgarden ranks fourth all-time in laps led on the IMS road course with 59 and 34 of those were in the first Harvest Grand Prix race last October. Prior to that victory, Newgarden's only top ten finish on the IMS road course was seventh in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis that July. After failing to score a top ten finish in his first six spins around the track, the Tennessee has three top ten finishes on the trot, and he has led a lap in four of the last five IMS road course races. 

Scott McLaughlin makes his Grand Prix of Indianapolis debut this weekend and McLaughlin enters off a stellar weekend at Texas. The New Zealander was runner-up in race one and eighth in race two. These results have lifted him to eighth in the championship, tied with his teammate Will Power on points. McLaughlin owns the tiebreaker as he has finishes of second, eighth and 11th to Power's second, eighth and 13th. 

Penske's lineup accounts for 88.889% of the victories on the IMS road course and this race could not have come at a better time, as the team has gone winless through the first four races for the second consecutive season. Last year, the team won the fifth race at Iowa with Simon Pagenaud. This is the first time Penske has failed to win one of the first four races in consecutive seasons since 1998 through 2000. The organization did not win a race in either of the first two years and broke the trend with Gil de Ferran winning the fifth race of 2000 at Nazareth. 

The last season Penske did not get its first victory by the fifth race was 2013, when the team did not win until the eighth race at Texas. 

Four-for-Four

For the fifth time in the ten years of the DW12-era, an IndyCar season has opened with four different winners in the first four races. This is the eighth season in the last ten that had at least three different winners to open the season. Four of the last nine seasons have had at least five different winners to open the year, including in three of the last four seasons. 

This year has started with two Ganassi winners, an Andretti Autosport winner and an Arrow McLaren SP winner. Prior to 2019, Ganassi had not won multiple races within the first four races of a season since 2009. Andretti Autosport did not win until the 11th race last season, and this is the first year it won one of the first two races since it won the first two races to open the 2013 season. AMSP had not won since Iowa in 2018 and Patricio O'Ward's victory at Texas was the fourth time in team history it won one of the first four races to open a season. AMSP is the first victory for a Chevrolet team other Team Penske since Scott Dixon won at Watkins Glen in 2016, Ganassi's final season as a Chevrolet team.

IndyCar has had two first-time winners within the first four races and three of the four winners are 24 years old or younger. Álex Palou was 24 years and 18 days old when he won at Barber, Colton Herta was not even a month removed from his 21st birthday when he took the top step of the podium in St. Petersburg and O'Ward won days before his 22nd birthday. 

This is the first season with multiple first-time winners since the 2015 season when Josef Newgarden and Carlos Muñoz picked up their first career victories. The last season with at least three first-time winners was 2013 when James Hinchcliffe, Takuma Sato, Simon Pagenaud and Charlie Kimball each scored their maiden victories. Hinchcliffe and Sato each won in the first and third races of the season respectively. 

Recent history suggests we are sitting pretty for a fifth different winner in the first five races. In each of the last six seasons, a Penske driver has won the fifth race of the season. The 2017 season opened with seven different winners through the first seven races. The most different winners to open a season is 13 back in 1911. There were 21 races that season.

The Dangers of Scott Dixon

We are through four races and Scott Dixon already has a victory and leads the championship. Last year, Dixon went wire-to-wire leading the championship from the first checkered flag of the season at Texas through the finish line at St. Petersburg. With Dixon back on top so early, the question is how dangerous is Dixon with 13 races to go and already holding an 18-point lead? 

Dixon has been in the top five of the championship after the last 48 races. This streak dates back to after the 2018 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He has not been outside the top ten of the championship since he was 14th after the NOLA Motorsports Park round in 2015, 99 races ago and he has spent 92 of those 99 races in the top five. 

This is the tenth season Dixon has led the championship. There have been three seasons where he led the championship but did not go on to take the title. The first was 2007, when he only led after three of 17 races, and those three races were not consecutive as he led after the second race at St. Petersburg, the fifth race at Indianapolis and the 15th race at Sonoma. In 2009, Dixon led the championship after five races, but like 2007, none of those races were consecutive. He led after the fifth race at Milwaukee, the ninth race at Watkins Glen, the 11th race at Edmonton, the 13th race at Mid-Ohio and the 16th and penultimate race at Motegi. 

The 2017 season is the only time Dixon has led the championship after consecutive races and not won it. He led after the seventh race at Belle Isle through the 12th race at Toronto. After finishing ninth at Mid-Ohio, he dropped to third, eight points behind Josef Newgarden. Dixon ended that season third in the championship, 21 points behind Newgarden.

In Dixon's six championship seasons, he has only relinquished the championship lead at some point in two of them, the first two. In 2003, he won the Homestead season opener but immediately gave it up in round two. He only led the championship after four of 16 races that season, not regaining it until the tenth round at Michigan, before dropping to fourth after the next race at Gateway. He regained the top spot after the penultimate race at Fontana and held on at Texas to win the championship over Gil de Ferran. 

In 2008, Dixon again won the season opener at Homestead and immediately gave it up in round two. However, Dixon only dropped to second and remained second for three races before he won the sixth race at Indianapolis and led all the way through the Chicagoland finale.

Dixon is the most recent winner of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, winning last year's race on Independence Day. He has finished second or first in the last four Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He is currently on 51 victories, one behind tying Mario Andretti for second all-time. Dixon enters with 14 consecutive top ten finishes, the longest top ten streak of his career. He has also finished in the top five of the last five races. He has not had six consecutive top five finishes since he ended the 2018 season with six on the spin and he added a seventh in the 2019 season opener. 

Who's Out Already?

It might only be May, but it is early enough to know where some stand in the championship picture. Four races are enough to tell us who is already out of it. 

Every champion since 1947 has had their first top ten finish by the fourth race of the season. In fact, 88 of the last 89 champions have had their first top ten finish by the third race of the season. The one driver extending hope to a handful of drivers is Danny Sullivan, whose first top ten in his 1988 championship season was a runner-up result in the fourth race at Milwaukee. 

Felix Rosenqvist, Ed Jones, James Hinchcliffe and Dalton Kellett have all yet to score a top ten finish through four races. We can cross those four drivers off. Jimmie Johnson and Max Chilton were not at Texas, but Johnson will run 11 of the final 13 races and Chilton will run 12 of the final 13 races. Neither Johnson nor Chilton have finished in the top fifteen this season. While the points are on the table, we can cross them off as well.

Every champion since 1947 has their first top five finish by the fifth race of the season. The only driver who needed the fifth race was Gil de Ferran, who won the fifth race of the 2000 CART season at Nazareth. 

Rinus VeeKay, Takuma Sato, Marcus Ericsson, Alexander Rossi, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Romain Grosjean all have a top ten finish through the first four races but lack that top five finish. All six drivers will be on notice this weekend. 

VeeKay was fifth in last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis, his first career top five finish and when IndyCar returned for Harvest Grand Prix weekend, the Dutchman took his first pole positions for race one and ended up third, his first podium finish. Sato has never finished better than ninth on the IMS road course. Ericsson was sixth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis last year. 

After consecutive finishes outside the top twenty on the IMS road course, Rossi was on the podium in both Harvest Grand Prix races. He has three top five finishes and five top ten finishes in seven IMS road course starts. Hunter-Reay was on the podium in two of the first four IMS road course races and his worst finish was 11th. His best finish in the last five IMS road course races is 13th. 

Only five of the last 89 champions have taken more than four races to get their first podium finish. Only one of those five champions took more than five races to get a podium finish, and that was Jimmy Bryan, who won the sixth race of the 1956 season at Springfield. 

The top nine in the championship have a podium finish through the first four races. There is no rush to win a race. Twenty-four of the last 89 champions took longer than four races to get their first victory of the season. Fifteen of those twenty-four took six races or more for that first victory, including three of the last nine champions, and three champions since 1947 didn't even win a race. However, the average race number of a champion's first victory is 3.45 with a median of the third race. That should boost the confidence of Álex Palou, Colton Herta and Scott Dixon. 

Road to Indy

The Road to Indy is back in competition with all three series joining the Grand Prix of Indianapolis weekend. Two series will be running triple-headers this weekend.

David Malukas has won two of four Indy Lights races this season and the Chicago-based driver has the championship lead with 94 points, three points clear of Linus Lundqvist, who has three podium finishes through the first four events. A first and a second at St. Petersburg has Kyle Kirkwood up to third in championship on 86 points. Devlin DeFrancesco and Danial Frost round on the top five in the championship with 70 points and 68 points respectively.

Benjamin Pedersen was runner-up in the season opener, but he has been outside the top five of the last three races and he is on 65 points. Alex Peroni sits on 62 points with Toby Sowery on 58 points and Robert Megennis on 56 points. Sting Ray Robb rounds out the top ten with 49 points.

Andretti Autosport has won five of the last seven Indy Lights races on the IMS road course.

Indy Lights will race at 2:10 p.m. ET on Friday May 14 and 12:45 p.m. ET on Saturday May 15.

Braden Eves has won two of four Indy Pro 2000 races this season and the Ohioan leads the championship with 98 points, four points ahead of Christian Rasmussen. Rasmussen has finished first or second in the last three races. Hunter McElrea sits on 87 points in third with one victory. Artem Petrov has three top five finishes and sits on 79 points. Reece Gold rounds out the top five with 67 points with a pair of third-place finishes.

Colin Kaminsky was fifth in the last race at St. Petersburg and he is on 57 points, two ahead of Manuel Sulaimán, who was runner-up in the second St. Petersburg race. Enaam Ahmed had 55 points, five ahead of Jacob Abel. Cameron Shields was fourth in the season opener, but he has finished outside the top ten in the last three races and Shields is tenth in the championship on 42 points.

Juncos Racing has won the last five Indy Pro 2000 races on the IMS road course and seven of the last nine races dating back to 2017. 

Indy Pro 2000 opens its weekend at 11:45 a.m. ET on Friday May 14 before closing with two races on Saturday May 15. The first Saturday race will be at 7:50 a.m. ET with the second will be at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Christian Brooks swept the St. Petersburg races and he took the championship with 97 points. Kiko Porto is up to second on 74 points, one ahead of Prescott Campbell. Brooks and Proto each had two podium finishes last year in the IMS road course triple-header. Campbell's best finish last year on the IMS road course was tenth. Josh Pierson remains in fourth on 69 points, two ahead of Yuven Sundaramoorthy. Pierson's best finish was 12th on the IMS road course last year while Sundaramoorthy had two top ten finishes that weekend. 

Cape Motorsports teammates Michael d'Orlando and Spike Kohlbecker are tied on 54 points. D'Orlando was third in the second St. Petersburg race after a flip in race one. Kohlbecker was sixth in both St. Petersburg races. Billy Frazer sits on 51 points and Matt Round-Garrido and Josh Green round out the top ten on 46 points. Round-Garrido was second in the first St. Petersburg race, his first podium finish since he was third in the second Toronto race in 2019.

Cape Motorsports has won ten of the 15 U.S. F2000 races on the IMS road course. Pabst Racing has won three times, including two of three last year.

U.S. F2000 will have two races on Friday May 14 with the first at 10:40 a.m. ET and race two at 3:25 p.m. ET. The final race of the weekend will be at 9:40 a.m. ET on Saturday May 15. 

Fast Facts

This will be the second IndyCar race to take place on May 15. The other was the 1999 Rio 200, which Juan Pablo Montoya won. It was Montoya's third career victory in his fifth career start. 

This weekend will be Montoya's 94th IndyCar. He has won 16.12% of his starts, finished on the podium in 27.956% of his starts and he has top five finishes in 40.425% of his starts. 

Among the 26 drivers entered for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Montoya has the third best winning percentage behind only Sébastien Bourdais (17.535%) and Will Power (16.386%). He ranks fourth in podium percentage behind only Scott Dixon (36.686%), Power (34.453%) and Alexander Rossi (28.571%). He also ranks fourth in top five percentage behind Dixon (52.662%), Rinus VeeKay (47.058%) and Power (45.378%).

Twelve of the last 13 IndyCar races have been won from one of the top three starting positions. The lone exception is Josef Newgarden from eighth in the 2020 St. Petersburg finale. 

One of the last 36 IndyCar races has been won from outside a top ten starting position. Simon Pagenaud won from 23rd in the first Iowa race last year. 

Nine of the last 36 IndyCar races have been won from outside a top five starting position. 

The average starting position for a winner on the IMS road course is 2.8889 with a median of one. 

Five of nine IMS road course races have been won from pole position. 

The worst starting position for an IMS road course race winner is eighth, Simon Pagenaud in 2019.

At least one of the top five finishers has started outside the top fifteen in every Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Last year, Simon Pagenaud went from 20th to third and Rinus VeeKay went from 18th to fifth. 

The second Harvest Grand Prix race was the first time all three podium finishers in an IMS road course race started in the top five.

The average number of lead changes in an IMS road course race is 8.333 with a median of ten. 

Five of nine IMS road course races have had at least ten lead changes. 

The first Harvest Grand Prix race had 12 lead changes, tying the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis for most lead changes in an IMS road course race. 

Only two IMS road course races have had fewer than five lead changes, the 2017 Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the second Harvest Grand Prix race, where Will Power led every lap.

The average number of cautions in an IMS road course race is 1.444 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 6.111 with a median of four.

There have been three caution-free races on the IMS road course, including both Harvest Grand Prix races last October. 

The most cautions in an IMS road course race are four in 2014, which also had 19 caution laps, the most caution laps for an IMS road course race.

Possible Milestones:

Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.

Will Power is one victory away from the 40-victory milestone.

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 43 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead one lap to reach 2,500 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 51 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Predictions

Team Penske picks up its eighth victory on the IMS road course and Josef Newgarden will get his first victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Newgarden will start in the top four. One of the podium finishers will start outside the top eight and one of the podium finishes will get his first podium finish of the season. Jimmie Johnson will only be two laps down. Max Chilton will jump ahead of Johnson in the championship. Juan Pablo Montoya will finish ahead of Felix Rosenqvist, but neither will finish in the top ten. At least two drivers outside the top ten in the championship will get a top five finish. Rinus VeeKay will again qualify and finish ahead of Conor Daly. A Ganassi driver will not earn fastest lap. Scott Dixon will extend his championship lead over second. Sleeper: Jack Harvey.