Sunday, August 25, 2024

First Impressions: Portland 2024

1. When it was necessary, Will Power went out and thrashed the field to keep his championship hopes alive. Even with an emphatic drive to a Portland victory, Power has work to do at Milwaukee next week to keep the championship alive heading into the finale. With 54 points between Álex Palou and Power, Power needs to outscore Palou by at least five points over the two Milwaukee races to stay alive for Nashville. With Power on three victories, the tiebreaker is in his hands as of now. Power did what he had to do today, and it was an old school Power performance. 

Power beat Santino Ferrucci at the jump into turn one and it was lights out from there. Come on, did anyone think Ferrucci was going to hold off Power at the start? Did anyone think Power wasn't going to pull away from the field? To be fair, Power didn't really pull away until the final stint. Palou kept him honest, but Power's team was flawless today. The driver didn't make a mistake. The pit crew was lightyears ahead of the competition today. After every pit stop, Power's gap grew to Palou. The #12 Penske crew did what it had to do. It will have to do it three more times if Power wants to pull out what appears to be an improbable third championship.

2. Álex Palou was giving it his all to beat Power today. This was a chance to extend the lead and essentially give him a head start on his coronation ceremony in Milwaukee. Pit stops killed Palou's team today. They could not match Power's team and once we got through the final stops, Palou settled for second. 

This race showed how hard it is to beat Palou. 

Palou does not make any mistakes. He started third today when every one of his championship rivals but Power started behind him. Palou spent basically the entire race in a top three position. He never put a wheel wrong, never had a slow stop though they were not as quick as Power's, and he finished second. He only lost 12 points to Power today and he is still 54 points clear with three races to go. 

Milwaukee and Nashville are two unknowns for Palou, but he will race smart and get something out of it. It will require Power to be basically perfect to overtake Palou for the Astor Cup.

3. Josef Newgarden was 23.2046 seconds back of Will Power in third. That was the kind of day we saw from Portland. Power was dominant today. Newgarden ran well. He was never close to the lead, and he really made up spots through pit cycles. He wasn't in a podium spot until the final third of the race. He let other strategies fade around him and then wound up third. 

Considering how Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Newgarden's season has been, a race where he started fifth and finished third without anything notable happening is a big change for him in 2024. The title is essentially out of reach. He needs a flu bug to help him win the championship, but Newgarden should feel good entering a three-race oval stretch to close the season.

4. Colton Herta probably should finish fourth, but he had a chance for third only for a bad choice by the team, and then an unexpected penalty, to cost him. 

Herta was closing on Newgarden on the penultimate stint, and Herta caught Newgarden. Newgarden was stuck behind Linus Lundqvist. 

I do not understand why Herta did not pit immediately when he got to Newgarden's gearbox. I understand Herta had gone longer on the previous stint and was hoping for a shorter stint to close the race and needing less fuel on that final stop, but Newgarden was going to lose time behind Lundqvist. Herta could have had clean air help him flipped that spot into his favor. Instead, Herta spent about three laps longer than necessary behind Newgarden, losing time to the cars that already stopped, and then Herta and his crew botched that stop anyway.

It wasn't a great pit stop to begin with, but Herta stalled and it looked disastrous. However, Herta restarted the car on his own, a no-no because the hybrid system is not supposed to be activated on the pit lane, but apparently it was. Herta didn't lose any extra spots. He was only three seconds behind Newgarden after that pit cycle, but Herta was handed a penalty for the illegal use of the hybrid system. Herta was basically told to give up ten seconds on track. I don't know if that is what is written in the rulebook, but that is what he was told to do. That penalty didn't cost Herta a position but it only confirmed third was not going to be his on this day. 

The irritating thing is the hybrid system clearly does not work as well as IndyCar says it works. That isn't a slight on the hybrid and I am not dismissing what it can do. Will Power would not have won at Iowa without it. But IndyCar says the hybrid doesn't work on pit lane and it is deactivated, but it clearly is operational after this Herta incident. IndyCar doesn't have a handle on it. It would like you to believe it does, but if IndyCar cannot enforce the rules, why have the rules at all and why do these rules exist?

If a driver can restart the car on pit lane, why not just allow it? No one wants to see a driver lose 30 seconds because he stalled on pit lane and the crew has to scramble to get the starter out. That doesn't make the race better. Let the drivers use the system to the most of its ability. It looks more ridiculous not using it. 

Herta's team could have avoided this if it had just stopped earlier and had one good pit stop, but we shouldn't be creating unnecessary penalties especially when IndyCar doesn't have to ability to regulate the systems as they have intended.

5. Marcus Armstrong is making Chip Ganassi's life really difficult. This is in a good way. Chip Ganassi Racing will likely have only three cars next season due to the new charter rules. Chip Ganassi Racing is currently a five-car team. Two drivers are going to lose this game of musical chairs. 

Palou and Scott Dixon are safe. Armstrong has four top five finishes this season, including two in the last three races and he has three consecutive top ten finishes. Chip Ganassi Racing must stick with Armstrong. It is clicking for him in his sophomore season. He has had some growing pains, but he has made steps forward and he should be better next year. This was a strong day for Armstrong.

6. Marcus Ericsson did not make much buzz in this one, but Ericsson hasn't had many days where he drives clean and makes up spots in 2024, and he needed a race like this one. This hasn't been a great season, but it hasn't been a bad season either for the Swede. Unfortunately, he has been swept up in a number of things that haven't been his fault. Ovals have been cruel to him this year. A drive to sixth was much needed. 

7. An engine penalty knocked Scott McLaughlin down to 20th on the grid, and McLaughlin slowly worked his way up to seventh. It wasn't anything fancy. Three spots here, three spots there and all of a sudden, McLaughlin was seventh. Any Team Penske car should accidentally finish seventh. Team Penske drivers could be forced to get out of a car and do a dizzy-bat race at the halfway point and that driver should still finish in the top seven. The pit crews are the best. The cars are the best. There should be no surprise when a Team Penske car makes up 13 spots. This wasn't surprising today.

8. Santino Ferrucci should not be disappointed finishing eighth after starting on his first career pole position. This is still A.J. Foyt Racing. Ferrucci had one top ten finish last season. He has eight top ten finishes this season, and he is sitting for tenth in points with three races remaining. This has been a better season than many saw possible. Ferrucci had good speed today. That one-lap pace didn't translate over 30-lap stints, and the pit crew cannot match the other teams, but Ferrucci had a good enough a car to still finish eighth. He didn't overdrive the car and he didn't make any mistakes.

It is nuts that Foyt had not re-signed Ferrucci for next year. He really should have been extended after Indianapolis. What is Foyt waiting for? This is the best one of its drivers has done in over 20 years. Don't blow this!

9. Graham Rahal got a top ten finish in ninth. It has been a rough year for Rahal and the Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing team. This hasn't been a complete nosedive from 2023 but it is a step back. It was good to see Rahal have a day where he stayed around the top ten all race, ran strong and got a good result.

10. Kyle Kirkwood was running better than tenth for most of this race. Kirkwood was up to third after stopping early and using two sets of alternate tires to start the race. Kirkwood's race unraveled a bit when after his second pit stop when he was battling Toby Sowery out of the pit lane. Sowery was able to keep Kirkwood behind him, which was crucial because after Newgarden stopped, Newgarden came out directly ahead of Sowery.

If Kirkwood had been able to keep Sowery behind him, Kirkwood likely would have been out ahead of Newgarden. 

However, it didn't matter as Kirkwood got a penalty for blocking. It was deemed Kirkwood made a reactionary move on Sowery heading into turn four on his out lap. Kirkwood was told to give up a position, which was to Romain Grosjean, but because Conor Daly was so close to Grosjean, Kirkwood ended up losing two spots and lost a lot of time.

That was harsh and I think the officials were a little overboard on this call. First off, it is tough to call that a block. Kirkwood was just out of the pit lane. He was on cold tires. He was making it difficult for Sowery, but there wasn't anything malicious there. Second, Sowery ended up getting ahead of Kirkwood anyway. That doesn't mean a block didn't happen, but telling a driver to give a position to a driver that was not blocked is over the top. 

Going back to Gateway, Colton Herta clearly attempted a block on Linus Lundqvist even if Lundqvist ended up making the pass. Herta was penalized a position after the race because of how late the block occurred in the race. If you hold the standard that a position should only be given up for a block when the position never change, you run the risk of basically allowing the move Herta did to continue. I don't know how you de-incentivize such a move without it costing a driver a position, but I don't think Kirkwood's move today warranted a blocking penalty today. 

It is a catch-22. We don't want to see the Herta move, and maybe that deserves an additional penalty, but I feel like Kirkwood got too much of a reprimand for hard racing when he is doing all he can to not lose time during a pit cycle. 

Kirkwood might have been in a tough spot anyway. I don't know if he would have finished third today, but without the penalty and the time lost falling behind two Juncos Hollinger Racing cars, I think he would have been competing for a top five finish. He likely finishes better than tenth.

We didn't talk about the opening lap and the incident between Kirkwood and Scott Dixon. We will get to that in a little bit.

11. We are going to breeze through some drivers.

Rinus VeeKay had another good day to finish 11th. VeeKay picked a great time to be running well again. Right when a contract is on the line. He looked posed for a top ten result, but lost out in the later stints.

12. Alexander Rossi had a strong start to the race, but he fell flat mid-race and finished 12th. This was a bad weekend for Arrow McLaren. Patricio O'Ward was 15th and did nothing all race. Nolan Siegal was 21st and had one significant off-course moment. Arrow McLaren has gotten its head straight, but this feels like a return to the early part of the season when Arrow McLaren could not do anything right and was barely able to finish in the top ten. It is a mystery how McLaren can be this anonymous in some races.

13. While Graham Rahal was in the top ten, the rest of the RLLR team was having a whale of a day. Christian Lundgaard has not been comfortable for most of this season, and he dropped like a rock from fourth on the grid. Jüri Vips had a fuel probe issue early and still finished 19th in what was a good outing considering Vips has been on the sidelines for basically an entire year. Pietro Fittipaldi hit Scott Dixon on the opening lap in a move that was honestly Fittipaldi's fault. I know Dixon said Fittipaldi did nothing wrong, but Fittipaldi made a low probability move and flew over the curbs. That is a penalty every race. And then Fittipaldi bulldozed in to Conor Daly into turn one! That was another penalty. 

I will be honest. Fittipaldi is 19th in points and tied with Sting Ray Robb. It is tight for the Leader Circle spots, but I think Vips should get a shot at Milwaukee and Nashville. Fittipaldi has shown nothing on the ovals to suggest he will be that much better than the unknown of Vips. I don't know if Vips is approved for ovals. I don't think he has done an oval test, but we could squeeze one in if needed. I think we have seen enough from Fittipaldi this season. It wasn't a good year. Vips should get a little greater of an opportunity, especially since it seems he is almost a lock for a full-time ride in 2025.

14. Not the greatest day from Meyer Shank Racing. Felix Rosenqvist was 14th. David Malukas couldn't do better than 20th after starting 25th. MSR just didn't have it today. Not the end of the world. MSR has been much better than last year. In 2023, a 14th and a 20th was a borderline great day for this organization.

15. Doubling back to the Chip Ganassi Racing game of musical chairs. Kyffin Simpson was 16th in what was a good day for him. Simpson ended up on the lead lap. Linus Lundqvist did nothing today and was 23rd. I do not understand how Ganassi does not pick Armstrong for the third seat in 2025. 

Simpson has been ok this year, but he has come down to earth from how his season started. Lundqvist has been disappointing but he has two podium finishes saving his season. I don't think Lundqvist has been that good, not as good as a driver who was completely overlooked ahead of the 2023 season after winning the 2022 Indy Lights championship but was then good enough after three starts in relief for the injured Simon Pagenaud to end up in a Chip Ganassi Racing seat for the 2024 season. Hindsight is 20/20, but what was Ganassi in a rush for? 

16. Toby Sowery might be the best rookie this season. Théo Pourchaire does deserve some recognition as well. Sowery has definitely been the best Dale Coyne Racing driver. His battle with Kirkwood and not making contact or dropping a wheel off course was rather impressive. If there was any justice in this world, Sowery would be full-time for Dale Coyne Racing next year. 

As for Jack Harvey, 24th today. Didn't do much of anything. Hasn't done much of anything this season. Harvey has nearly 90 more starts than Sowery. He has finished on the podium before. Dale Coyne Racing is not an easy situation to be in, but Sowery has been the standout for DCR this year.

16. Sting Ray Robb was 18th, which isn't bad. Not great, not as good as ninth. It could have been worse. 

17. When Conor Daly was signed to fill out the Juncos Hollinger Racing #78 Chevrolet for the final five races, the #78 Chevrolet was only five points behind the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet for the final Leader Circle spot. I thought Conor Daly could definitely out-score Sting Ray Robb by five points over the final five races. It appears I might be wrong. Twenty-second today for Daly and he has finished behind Robb in both races so far with Robb scoring nine points more than Daly over that period. Brutal.

18. Let's cover some incidents. Romain Grosjean had a spin all on his own while fighting for a top five spot. Grosjean spun over the curbs entering turn one. It cost him a lot of time, but what cost him even more was spinning around and right into Christian Rasmussen, who already had one off-road excursion in this race. The contact punctured Grosjean's rear tire and Grosjean then went off-course trying to get back around the circuit. All these antics led to an additional penalty for the Frenchman.

It is incredible how badly Grosjean punted away a great result today. Mistakes happen. Unfortunately, he makes mistakes all the time. Nobody else spun in the chicane today. Nobody else had the steering wheel bounce out of their hands at Toronto last year. For all the good Grosjean can do, 75% of the time it will be wasted. For the first half of this race, I thought Grosjean is in a good spot and had made some great strides with a small team. After he spun, I thought there is no way he will be back in 2025. When he boils over, he boils over big time. I know Juncos Hollinger Racing might be seeing an ownership structural change between now and 2025, but JHR must be asking if Grosjean is worth it.

This was just an extra punch to the gut for Rasmussen today. It had already been a rough day. This contact was a bummer. 

19. Have you noticed how we have not mentioned Scott Dixon yet? Dixon's race lasted about eight corners as Dixon was knocked off course on the opening lap after Pietro Fittipaldi attempted to cut the curbs to the inside in turn eight. This ricocheted Fittipaldi into Dixon and sent Dixon off course and into the barrier. 

Dixon forgave Fittipaldi and said it was all Kyle Kirkwood's fault because Kirkwood had forced Dixon to drop his tires off course on exit of turn seven after Kirkwood made a pass. 

This wasn't on Kirkwood. It cannot be a penalty to make a pass. Kirkwood didn't dive into the corner and force Dixon off. Kirkwood wasn't close to contact with Dixon. Kirkwood made a great pass. Dixon was on the outside. He could have backed out and lived to fight another day or held his car on the track. It sucks that Dixon was going to lose a spot or two there, but Fittipaldi was making a move no one has ever made before at Portland. 

Nobody cuts those curbs to the inside of turn eight. Nobody in their right mind would have suggested making that move prior to this race. Dixon is upset he lost spots due to the Kirkwood move, but the Fittipaldi move was plain nonsense. That was never going to work and that is what ended Dixon's race, not Kirkwood's pass.

20. Well, wasn't this a busy Portland race? Now we have a doubleheader ahead of us from Milwaukee. Fun.