Monday, August 19, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: Why Do We Care About the Leader Circle Anymore?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

NASCAR took away playoff eligibility from Austin Dillon after how he won the Richmond race. Dillon appealed the decision and we will find out Wednesday how that will play out. It rained in Michigan, meaning the Cup race will finish this afternoon. Elsewhere, it was a good weekend for a pair of brothers. It was a good weekend for Corvette. Rain was expected but did not show in Austria. Josef Newgarden won and ticked some people off at Gateway, but something else has been on my mind regarding IndyCar, and we received some clarity on the topic prior to Saturday night's race.

Why Do We Care About the Leader Circle Anymore?
I have actually been asking myself this question for a few months now as we have awaited IndyCar finalizing any charter agreement with the teams. 

If IndyCar is introducing a charter system and expanding it to cover 25 teams, why do we care about the Leader Circle program and the competition for those spots? Aren't all these teams going to be covered in the charter agreement anyway? 

In a little bit of a surprise, we caught the introduction to the charter proposal IndyCar sent to the teams on Saturday at Gateway Motorsports Park, and it partially answered this question. Just because there will be a charter system does not mean the Leader Circle program will go away. 

Confirmed was the limit of three charters per organization. That was expected. However, while there will be 25 charters on offer, 22 Leader Circle spots will still be awarded each season. Only the charter entries will be eligible for the Leader Circle spots, meaning the non-charter teams are not eligible no matter how well they finish in the championship. All 25 charter entries would be locked into every race, except the Indianapolis 500, with every race other than the Indianapolis 500 capped at 27 starters. 

Other than learning the Leader Circle program will stick around and work in congruency with the charter system, we didn't really learn anything from this reveal. Except for a provision that would limit a charter entry from running more than three drivers in a single season. There were no surprises, but I ask again, why do we care about the Leader Circle anymore? 

The entire point of the charter system is to give teams value in competing full-time in the NTT IndyCar Series. The hope is a team owns one of these charters to compete and then one day if the team needs to sell everything or just needs to sell one charter and downsize to a two-car team or one-car team, it can get $10 million, $20 million, $50 million for that spot on the grid. All that we know about the Leader Circle program is it will remain a $1 million base payment each team receives for that season. 

If the hopes are to emulate NASCAR where the price for charters shot through the roof, a $1 million base payment isn't really all that meaningful. It will be something to compete for, but if the charters become something worth ten times or more what the Leader Circle is paying out, does it really matter if you crack the top 22 or not? 

It appears the charter system isn't even "Leader Circle+" for the teams. Other than essentially owning a spot on the grid, I am not sure what having a charter adds to a team. My assumption through this process was all the charter teams would be Leader Circle teams. They would all receive a base payment and perhaps that payment would go up and see greater revenue shared. However, it sounds like nothing is changing. It will still be 22 teams getting a pay day while three teams do not but are still a part of the club. 

I do not understand that logic, nor do I understand how IndyCar could not find $3 million extra to cover all the charter teams especially after the series signed a supposed historic media deal with Fox for the 2025 season. Apparently the teams are pleased though, and it doesn't sound like there will much if any pushback for more and a second proposal. 

There are no guarantees the charters will become worth anything. There must be a demand for them to increase in value. Their introduction could not have come at a better time as European junior series powerhouse Prema has plans to enter IndyCar for the 2025 season. Unfortunately for Prema, it picked the wrong time to be a new team entering IndyCar. Despite all of its investment into joining the series, Prema will not be offered a charter as those offers are only eligible to 2023 participants. 

Without a charter, Prema's two-car operation will face possibly failing to qualify for every race. The good news is while there are only two spots open for non-charter entries, Chip Ganassi Racing is reportedly going to contract two cars, its two non-Leader Circle teams, and that would open the door for Prema's two entries to be the 26th and 27th cars at every round. This is of course assuming no teams run additional one-off entries, like Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will this weekend at Portland with a fourth entry for Jüri Vips. 

Prema will have high incentive to purchase one, if not two, charters. It will be up to the existing IndyCar teams to set the price for what will be the only chance to set the market value. Does a team sense Prema's desperation and set the price high? Does a team not understand how much these are worth and shoot too low? Does the lack of any additional teams interested in joining the series outside of Prema lead to a standstill and Prema realizing it is better off not buying a charter and spending more than it must to compete because until a 28th and 29th car shows, Prema will be in all the races? Should IndyCar have extended an olive branch to Prema and given it one charter while sacrificing one from an existing team? 

The answer to the last question is yes.

None of this really matters until people start knocking on team doors in hopes of joining the series. IndyCar saw some buzz a few years ago when Meyer Shank Racing and Juncos Hollinger Racing joined the series. Prior to that, Carlin joined. Now Prema is here, but there must be constant interest and value seen in the series for charters to do what is hoped for. If no one is knocking for the next five years and viewership, attendance and every other important metric does not increase, neither will the charter and these teams will not be making anything on a sale. 

IndyCar has done something but we do not know whether that something will be all that meaningful. On the paper that has been presented, it does not appear much has changed from how business has been done now. If nothing is changing from how things are done now, why should we think participating in the series has become anymore valuable?

There is a chance there will be more involved than we have seen so far, but nothing from this charter proposal is all that revolutionary and could see the teams benefit mightily. It feels like more of the same and hopes of introducing something new in how spots on the grid are allocated will add value to participating in the series and in turn give the teams something substantial that can be sold on when someone new wants to join the series. 

It feels like a lot of sizzle but no steak. There is hope it will lead to something meaningful, but more must be done than guaranteeing spots on a grid where already no cars miss the races and viewership is lucky to break one million people per race. For this to produce anything valuable to the teams, IndyCar must increase value in the series, something it has struggled to do ever since it debuted as the Indy Racing League 28 years ago. 

Let's just run out a hypothetical where a two-car team wants to sell both its charters for $15 million apiece. It does not look all that appealing to spend $30 million to compete for a grand total of $2 million in Leader Circle money, which isn't even guaranteed and must be earned by finishing in the top 22 out of 25 cars, while struggling to sell sponsors on a series with low viewership that lacks any cultural relevance.

I don't know if there is a better way to illustrate the potential shortcomings of this system than that. IndyCar can introduce this system as the way of doing business moving forward, but it must also work to increase payment to the teams and value in the series otherwise none of this matters and the teams will not see any windfall. It looks great on paper, but it must work in reality to have any reason to celebrate. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden, but did you know...

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix and sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his first victory since last year's Austrian Grand Prix. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his seventh victory of the season. Óscar Gutiérrez and Héctor Garzó split the MotoE races.

Louis Foster won the Indy Lights race from Gateway, his sixth victory of the season.

Justin Allgaier won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Michigan.

Nick Percat and Cam Waters split the Supercars races from Symmons Plains.

Kelvin van der Linde and Sheldon van der Linde split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from the Nürburgring.

The #63 DXDT Racing Corvette of Tommy Milner and Alec Udell swept the GT World Challenge America races from Road America. The #97 Random Vandals Racing BMW of Kevin Boehm and Kenton Koch swept the GT4 America races. Justin Rothberg and James Sofronas split the GT America races.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar's final road course race of the season from Portland.
Formula One returns from summer break at Zandvoort.
NASCAR is in Daytona.
IMSA has a GT-only show at Virginia International Raceway.
The European Le Mans Series will be at Spa-Francorchamps.
GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup visits Magny-Cours.