The 14th round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season brings the series to Portland International Raceway for the final road course race of the season. Portland moves up to August for the first time in the event's history after spending five years in September, four of which were on Labor Day weekend, and after originally running in June for its first 24 editions on the calendar. Honda and Chevrolet have traded victories at the circuit since it returned in 2018 with Honda holding an edge of three victories to two entering this weekend. Based on the pattern, it should be Chevrolet's weekend to shine. After the chaotic evening race at Gateway Motorsports Park, 14 drivers remain mathematically alive for the championship.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 25 with green flag scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 5:55 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 12:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 3:30 p.m. ET
Qualifying: 3:30 p.m. ET
Final Practice: 8:15 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 3:20 p.m. ET (110 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 3:20 p.m. ET (110 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Palou's Moment to Pounce
Fifty-nine points is Álex Palou's championship lead with four races remaining. If Palou can keep his championship lead above 49 points after Portland and the Milwaukee doubleheader, for the second consecutive season he will clinch the championship with a race to spare. He will also become the 13th driver with at least three IndyCar championships, and it would be the 17th time in IndyCar history a driver won the title in consecutive seasons.
The stage could not be better set for Palou to achieve history.
Though the final two circuits are completely foreign to him, Portland could not have come at a better time for the Catalan driver. In three years, Palou has won twice at the 1.967-mile circuit. With an average finish of 4.667, Portland is one of six circuits where Palou has an average finish inside the top five. He averages 41 points per Portland start, essentially a second-place finish. Nobody has averaged more points per start over the last three Portland races. The numbers are in his favor and it will require someone beating Palou outright to claw back points.
Even if another championship rival beats Palou, in all likelihood, it will not be a significant dent in the championship margin. Palou has not finished outside the top ten on a permanent road course since he was 12th in the 2022 Portland race. In the 13 permanent road course races held since that day in Portland, Palou has won seven of them, stood on the podium after nine of them, finished in the top five in 12 of them, and his worst finish is seventh. His average finish over the last 12 permanent road course races is 2.538.
Road courses aside, Palou has been flawless everywhere. While he has two results outside the top fifteen this season, he has finished in the top five in his other 11 starts. Only once in the last two seasons has Palou failed to have a top five result in consecutive races, and he finished seventh in both those events. His 11 top five finishes are four more than the next closest driver, meaning no matter what, he has already clinched at least a share of having the most top five finishes in the 2024 season with four races to run.
The results have been coming regardless of where Palou has been starting. In the last two races, Palou has gone from 18th to fourth at Toronto and 16th to fourth at Gateway. He started 16th at Gateway after a nine-spot grid penalty for changing to his fifth engine this season. For the most part, the starting positions have been good. Prior to the last two races, he had started in the top three in four consecutive races and in five of the previous six.
As good as he is finishing at Portland, Palou is better at qualifying. Among the track where Palou has made at least three starts, Portland ranks number one in average starting position at 3.333. He has started no worse than fifth in his three Portland appearances. All three of Palou's pole positions this season have been on permanent road courses.
What Will It Take For Anyone Else to Get Back In It?
Things look pretty bleak for the rest of the competition after focusing on Palou. No matter what, Palou will leave Portland as the championship leader even if he has his worst race in over two years. That appears to be the only chance for any of the championship contenders to get back into it, but there is a way for some to chip away over the final four races.
Colton Herta's strong summer has him second in the championship, 59 points back. With four races to run, Herta could outscore Palou by 15 points a race to take the championship. That would require Herta finding that extra gear to beat the Ganassi driver.
Herta's Portland numbers are quite good. In four starts, he has three top ten finishes and an average finish of 7.75. He has started no worse than seventh at Portland. It is difficult to outscore Palou by 15 points when Palou's average finish is over three spots better and inside the top five. However, Herta has been strong on the ovals, even if the results do not show it.
Palou has finished ahead of Herta in three of four oval races this season with the only one in Herta's favor being the one Palou did not finish, the first Iowa race. Coincidentally, Palou's spin in that race kept Herta from finishing any better than 11th as it trapped Herta a lap down as Herta was on pit lane when Palou spun. Herta has finished in the top five of the last two oval races, and he led 86 laps from pole position in the first Iowa race before being caught on pit lane. Palou did lead 103 laps in the second Iowa race before cautions fell into Will Power's favor while Palou took second.
Despite how the finishes have gone, Herta is not out of it. A good day with a few points going in his favor combined with strong oval finishes could see Herta pull off a remarkable championship run. After all, it would require Palou to finish third to be within 15 points of a race victory for Herta. If Herta is second, Palou would need to finish seventh or better to be within 15 points. Doable, but also something that could play into Herta's favor.
Scott Dixon fell to 65 points off his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate after Gateway. Dixon's 11th-place result was the fourth time this season Dixon has finished outside the top ten. Dixon had only three finishes outside the top ten combined over the previous two seasons. Last year, Dixon ended with three victories in the final four races, and it will likely take something similar to win the championship.
Dixon won three of the final four races last year with seven top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes in the first 13 races and Palou still clinched the championship a race early. There was much greater daylight between the Ganassi teammates entering the final four races last year. Palou was 126 points ahead of Dixon, who was third in the championship. After the final four races, Palou was still champion, but Dixon closed to 78 points at the final margin, only a 48-point comeback.
Dixon's advantage is experience. Dixon has raced at Milwaukee and Nashville, the final two tracks on the schedule. Palou has not. Dixon has also won at both circuits, and he will return to Nashville having won the last three races at the 1.333-mile concrete oval.
Will Power is only 66 points behind Palou but Power is in a rough run of form. Though Power won the second Iowa race, he has finished outside the top ten in four of the last five races. His average finish since the start of July is 12th. Palou's average finish in the same timeframe is seventh. Power is the most recent driver to lead the championship before Palou took the point. Power led after his Road America victory. He was five points clear of Palou.
Over four races, Power will need to average outscoring Palou by 16.5 points in each event. Power is a past winner on the next two circuits, but Portland could to be more hit-or-miss for the Australian. While he won in 2019 and was second in 2022, Power has finished 21st, 13th and 25th in his other three starts since the circuit returned to the schedule. Add in his Champ Car results and Power has never had consecutive top ten finishes at Portland. His first two results were 18th and fourth.
Scott McLaughlin is 73 points off Palou. McLaughlin and Palou have both had similar summer stretches. Since the start of July, both drivers have four top five finishes in the last five races. The difference is McLaughlin has four podium finishes, including a victory at Iowa. He has also won pole position in two of those races while Palou has only one pole position in that time. Over the last five races, McLaughlin has scored the most points, 182 with Herta second on 167 points and Palou is third with 158 points.
Patricio O'Ward is the final driver within 100 points of the championship lead. Ninety-eight points from the top, O'Ward is coming off two consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen after having seven consecutive top ten results prior to this dip. Needing to average scoring 24.5 points more than Palou over the next four races, O'Ward has finished ahead of Palou in only four races this season. In three of those races, Palou still finished inside the top five.
Overlooked Performances
With the championship in firm view with only four races remaining, it is easy to lose track of some good stories happening in IndyCar. This is a chance to recognize some drivers who are on a good run of form into Portland.
You might not realize that the longest active top ten finish streak is only four races at the moment. You also likely do not realize that the four-race top ten finish streak belongs not to one of the championship contenders but Rinus VeeKay!
VeeKay has finished fifth, ninth, eighth and tenth in the last four races. It is his longest top ten finish streak since 2021. Despite these results, the Dutchman is still only 15th in points. He was 18th in points prior to this streak. Last year, VeeKay was sixth at Portland. He has never had five consecutive top ten finishes in his IndyCar career. VeeKay has never finished worse than 14th in the championship in his first four IndyCar seasons. He is only seven points away from maintaining that fact.
The driver that is ahead of VeeKay in the championship has been in a good run of form in his own right. Marcus Armstrong has seen a good bump upward after a shaky mid-third of the season. Armstrong has three top ten finishes in the last four races. This includes his third top five finishes this season (fifth at Toronto) and his first career top ten finish on an oval (eighth at Gateway).
Prior to this run, Armstrong had one top ten finish in his previous five starts and his average finish during that five-race stretch was 19.6. Armstrong was 19th in last year's Portland race, but the final result does not tell the entire story. An unsecured right rear tire on his final pit stop cost Armstrong what was setting up to be a top ten finish. Armstrong's first full season in IndyCar has had highs and lows. Compared to last year, he is a little off his 2023 output. Last year, Armstrong averaged 17.833 points per start over 12 races. Through 13 races this year, his average is 17.4615 points per start. To at least meet his 2023 form, Armstrong will need to score 77 points over the final three races.
Speaking of top ten finishes, Sting Ray Robb is coming off the first top ten finish in his IndyCar career. Robb was ninth at Gateway. Prior to Gateway, Robb has only one top fifteen finish this season. His career best finish prior to Gateway was 12th. Robb's first career top ten finish came in the 30th start of his career. Only Marco Greco (42) and A.J. Foyt IV (32) took more starts to get a first career top ten finish.
This has been a better season for Robb. He is 20th in the championship with 144 points. By averaging 11.076 points per start through the first 13 races, Robb is averaging 2.429 more points per start than last year. He was 23rd at Portland last year, finishing one lap down. Robb has finished inside the top twenty of the last three races on permanent road courses.
Final Road Course of the Season
Street courses are behind us and once we are through Portland only oval races will remain. This is the first time the IndyCar season is ending on an oval since 2014, and it is the first time an IndyCar season is ending with consecutive oval races since the 2010 season ended with four oval races.
When it comes to road courses, the championship leader has been the best. Álex Palou leads all drivers with 216 points on permanent road courses this season. Along with two victories, Palou has not finished worse than fifth on a road course this season. Due to Palou's success, only two other drivers could end this season with the most points scored on road courses, and one of those drivers will be mathematically eliminated once Palou starts the Portland race.
Will Power is 39 points behind Palou in road course points and Scott McLaughlin is 50 points back. McLaughlin will be eliminated once Palou starts at Portland. If Palou starts at Portland, the only way Power can end up on top is with a victory. Power finished on the podium in the first three road course races this season, including a victory at Road America, and his worst road course finish this season is 11th. McLaughlin won the first road course race of the season at Barber Motorsports Park and he also has three podium finishes on road courses this year.
Colton Herta has scored 152 points on road courses this season with his worst finish being eighth. Herta is 27 points ahead of his Andretti Global teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Kirkwood's worst finished on a permanent road course is 11th. Andretti Global has not won on a permanent road course since Alexander Rossi won the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in July 30, 2022.
Christian Lundgaard is a point behind Kirkwood on 124 road course points and Patricio O'Ward, the winner of the most recent road course race at Mid-Ohio, has 123 points from the first five permanent road course races. Lundgaard has three top ten finishes on road courses this season, and O'Ward has three consecutive top ten finishes on road courses.
Alexander Rossi has 106 points from the first five road course races, one more than Felix Rosenqvist, and four more than Romain Grosjean, who rounds out the top ten. Since his 2022 victory on the IMS road course, Rossi has only one top five finish on a permanent road course other than the IMS road course. He was third at Laguna Seca earlier this season. After opening the season with top ten finishes in the first two road course races, Rosenqvist has finished outside the top ten in the last three road course races. Grosjean has three top ten finishes on road courses this year with his best result being fourth at Laguna Seca.
Marcus Ericsson has 98 points from road course races this season. Scott Dixon scored the most points on street courses this season, but Dixon has only 90 points from the road course races this season. He has finished outside the top twenty in two of the last three road course races.
Road to Indy
For the Road to Indy, this is a championship weekend for two of the three series, and for Indy Lights, the championship could be essentially clinched this weekend.
Louis Foster won at Gateway Motorsports Park last week and Foster now has six victories this season with eight consecutive top ten finishes. Foster is 91 points clear of Jacob Abel with 162 points left on the table. If Foster leaves this weekend with a championship lead of 108 points or more, he will have clinched the Indy Lights championship with two races to spare. Abel is the only other driver with multiple victories this season, but he cannot match Foster's six victories, guaranteeing Foster the tiebreaker.
Caio Collet is the only other driver mathematically alive for the championship. Collet is 147 points behind Foster. Collet is on an island of his own, 56 points behind Abel in second but 62 points ahead of Callum Hedge in fourth. Hedge has three consecutive top five finishes.
It is rather tight for fifth in the championship. Jamie Chadwick holds it on 251 points, but she has not finished in the top five in the last five races. Chadwick is three points ahead of Salvaro de Alba and Reece Gold. James Roe, Jr. is nine points behind Chadwick.
Christian Bogle is up to ninth on 230 points, two points ahead of Myles Rowe, who has finished 17th or worse in four consecutive races. Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Jonathan Browne are tied on 219 points while Bryce Aron has 209 points. Josh Pierson sits n 204 points.
Indy Lights will hold a 35-lap race at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday August 25.
For USF Pro 2000, the season ends with a doubleheader, and three drivers are alive for the championship.
Lochie Hughes enters on 354 points, 35 points ahead of Jace Denmark and 63 points ahead of Nikita Johnson.
Hughes has five victories and ten podium finishes this season through 16 races. Denmark has yet to win this season, but he has nine podium finishes, including five consecutive entering Portland. Johnson has won six times this season, but in the last eight races, Johnson's average finish is 9.25 with four finishes outside the top ten.
Hughes will secure the championship if he scores at least 31 points over the two races this weekend.
USF Pro 2000 will race at 8:25 p.m. ET on Friday August 23 and 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday August 24. Both races are scheduled for 30 laps.
U.S. F2000 ends its 2024 season with a triple-header, and it is a four-way fight for the title with four American drivers.
Max Garcia enters the finale with 346 points. Garcia won four races of the season and he has seven podium finishes with 12 top five finishes. Garcia is 35 points ahead of Sam Corry. Corry has won twice and stood on the podium seven times.
Max Taylor has seven consecutive top five finishes entering Portland, but Taylor is 42 points off the championship lead. Taylor has four victories, but he has finished 15th or worse in three races this season. Evagoras Papasavvas has 288 points with two victories and eight podium finishes this season, but Papasavvas has four results outside the top ten.
Race one for U.S. F2000 will be at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday August 23. Race two will occur at 1:20 p.m. ET on Saturday August 24 with the final race of the season occurring later that evening at 9:05 p.m. ET. All three races are scheduled for 25 laps.
Fast Facts
This will be the 11th IndyCar race to take place on August 25 and the first since Will Power won at Gateway in 2018.
Will Power has won the last two races held on August 25. He won on August 25, 2013 at Sonoma.
Since 2018, the average number of passes in a Portland race is 194.6 with a median of 178. The average number of passes for position is 142 with a median of 131.
Last year's Portland race had 322 passes with 219 of those for position. None of the previous four Portland races broke 200 total passes nor 150 passes for position.
In three of the last five Portland races, at least one of the podium finishers has started outside the top ten.
In four of the last five Portland races, at least two top five finishers started outside the top ten.
The average starting position for a Portland winner is 3.8965 with a median of second.
Eleven of 13 race winners this season have started inside the top five, but the fourth-place starting position has not produced any winners this season.
Fourth starting position has not produced a winner in the last 21 races. The most recent victory for the fourth starting position was with Álex Palou at Mid-Ohio last year.
In 2023, the fourth starting position produced the winner in four of the first nine races, including winning three of the first four races.
Only twice has a Portland winner started fourth (Mario Andretti 1985, Michael Andretti 1991).
Last season, five of the final six races were won from outside a top five starting position, and three of the final four races were won from outside a top ten starting position.
Twenty-four of 29 Portland races have been won from a top five starting position.
The average number of lead changes in a Portland race is 6.172 with a median of six.
Three of the five Portland races since it returned to the IndyCar schedule in 2018 have had exactly nine lead changes.
The average number of cautions in a Portland race is 2.137 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 8.068 with a median of six.
Seven of the 14 cautions in the last five Portland races have been due to incidents in turn one or turn two.
The last two Portland races have not had a caution on the opening lap.
There have been six caution-free races at Portland, but only one caution-free race in the last 21 Portland races.
Predictions
Scott Dixon becomes the first driver to three victories this season, and he checks off another track in the process, but Álex Palou finishes in the top five and nobody really makes up any ground on Palou in the championship. Christian Lundgaard will have his best result since his podium on the IMS road course in May. Felix Rosenqvist will get his second consecutive top ten finish. Rinus VeeKay will finish outside the top ten. The total number of passes will rank either fourth or fifth among Portland races since 2018. Jüri Vips will not be the worst Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finisher. There will be at least one caution for an incident in turns one and two. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.
