The 13th round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season has the series back on an oval at Gateway Motorsports Park. After a 26-day break, IndyCar will run four races over the next 16 days, and the final five races will all take place in a 30-day span. Gateway is the first of four oval races in the five-race rush to the championship. It is the third of four Saturday races this season. With the number of races decreasing, so are the chances to win races and stay in the championship fight. Each race will see another missed chance and drivers eliminated from the title discussion. It has gotten late early and soon the history book will recognize the season that was 2024.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 17 with green flag scheduled for 6:15 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Dillon Welch and Georgia Henneberry will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Saturday:
First Practice: 12:45 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 4:20 p.m. ET
High-line Practice: 6:45 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Final Practice: 7:30 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 6:30 p.m. ET (260 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 6:30 p.m. ET (260 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
The Championship Picture
For 18 drivers, a return to Gateway means a resumption of the championship battle. That is all that remains mathematically alive for the IndyCar championship entering this weekend's race, and though it is a complete long shot for some, others have a possible path to hoisting the Astor Cup in Nashville.
Álex Palou remains the driver to beat. The defending champion has 411 points through 12 races as Palou has won twice, stood on the podium five times and has ten top five finishes. Those results have Palou 49 points ahead of Will Power, and Palou is in position to clinch a second consecutive championship with races to spare.
Power is the next closest drivers thanks to a pair of victories as well, but Power’s five podium finishes are his only top five finishes. He has finished outside the top ten in four races, including in three of the last four.
Scott Dixon is 53 points behind his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Palou. Though Dixon won two of the first six races, he had two results outside the top twenty cost him ground to Palou at the start of summer. Dixon has recovered with three consecutive top five finishes heading into Gateway, where Dixon is the defending race winner.
Colton Herta’s victory at Toronto lifted the American into the championship conversation. After going over two years between victories, Herta is 57 points off Palou with four top five finishes in his last five starts. Herta’s six top five finishes this season are double what he had over the entire 2023 season and he has quadrupled his number of podium results.
Patricio O’Ward rounds out the top five in the championship, but O’Ward is 71 points back with five races remaining. Like Power, O’Ward has two victories but O’Ward’s four podium finishes are his only top five results. O’Ward has also finished outside the top ten in four races, including a 17th in the most recent race at Toronto.
Scott McLaughlin’s rollercoaster season has McLaughlin 83 points behind Palou. McLaughlin has won twice and he has four podium finishes in the last seven races, but he has finished outside the top fifteen in those other three races, and he has five results outside the top fifteen this season.
Kyle Kirkwood has only one result outside the top fifteen this season, but with only one podium finish, second at Toronto nearly three weeks ago, and an average finish of 7.667, Kirkwood is 97 points off the championship lead. Kirkwood has ten top ten finishes this season, tied with Palou for the most in 2024.
Josef Newgarden’s tumultuous 2024 season has been well covered, and Newgarden leads the pack of chasing drivers who will need a near flawless conclusion of this season to win the championship. Newgarden is 145 points back with 270 points remaining on the table. The Indianapolis 500 remains his only victory in 2024, and Newgarden’s season has been so bad he is only a point ahead of Alexander Rossi, who missed the most recent race at Toronto due to a broken thumb.
Rossi has been cleared for Gateway, but Rossi returns now two years removed from his most recent victory on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course. He has one podium finish and three top five finishes in 2024.
Santino Ferrucci holds tenth in the championship, 180 points behind Palou. Ferrucci has seven top ten finishes this season, already tied for his most in a single season. He has finished 11th and 20th in the last two races, but that is the only time he has gone consecutive races without a top ten result.
Two points outside the championship top ten, and 182 points out of first, is Christian Lundgaard. Through 12 races last year, Lundgaard had a victory, three top five finishes and seven top ten results. This year, the Dane has zero victories, one top five (a third on the IMS road course) and five top ten finishes.
Marcus Ericsson and Félix Rosenqvist are the next two drivers in the championship, 189 points and 190 points back respectively. Marcus Armstrong is 208 points behind his teammate with Rinus VeeKay a further two points off Palou. Romain Grojsean is two points behind VeeKay while Graham Rahal is two points behind Grosjean.
The final driver mathematically eligible for the championship is Linus Lundqvist in 18th. Lundqvist trails Palou by 238 points with 270 points left on the table. To remain eligible into Portland, a driver must be within 216 points after Gateway.
Oval Reset
Since returning to the IndyCar schedule in 2017, Gateway had been the final oval race on every calendar until this year. Instead of hosting the final oval race, Gateway is the fourth of seven oval races on the 2024 calendar. A Milwaukee doubleheader and the season finale from Nashville Superspeedway will be the final oval races this season. Instead of looking at who will be the top oval driver once we have completed this Gateway race, it is effectively the midway point in the oval season and a chance to reset before the second half takes place.
The reset is Team Penske is in control.
Three oval races have seen three different Team Penske drivers claim victories. Josef Newgarden won the Indianapolis 500 for the second consecutive year while Scott McLaughlin and Will Power split the Iowa doubleheader. McLaughlin and Newgarden are first and second in oval points with 133 points and 122 points respectively.
Team Penske should feel confident heading into Gateway as the organization has won six of the last seven oval races and nine of 15 oval races held since the 2021 season. Gateway has been a place Penske has dominated with five victories in the eight races since the 1.25-mile oval returned to the schedule.
Newgarden is the all-time leader in Gateway victories, responsible for four of those five Penske victories since 2017. Prior to last year's race, Newgarden had won three consecutive times at the circuit. After not winning either Iowa race, this is the first time Newgarden has gone consecutive oval races without a victory since the first three oval races of the 2021 IndyCar season.
While Penske is on top, Patricio O'Ward has been respectable with a pair of runner-up finishes and a sixth. O'Ward has 114 points on ovals, 14 points more than Scott Dixon, who has finished third, fourth and fourth in the three oval events this season.
Álex Palou, Alexander Rossi and Rinus VeeKay are all tied with 81 points from oval races this season. Palou has a pair of top five finishes on ovals, including a runner-up finish in the second Iowa race while Rossi has a pair of top ten finishes. VeeKay has finished in the top ten in all three oval races this season. All three of those drivers are a point ahead of Power, who finished 24th and 18th in the first two oval races prior to his Iowa victory.
Santino Ferrucci has 79 oval points as he has finished in the top 11 of all three ovals races. After the top ten drivers, there are sizable gaps in the middle of the oval points. Kyle Kirkwood is ten points behind Ferrucci while Colton Herta is 11 points behind Kirkwood. Herta is only five points ahead of Graham Rahal but then there is a 14-point gap until Christian Lundgaard and Sting Ray Robb. Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top fifteen on 38 points.
Romain Grosjean has 37 points, one more than Marcus Armstrong, two more than Marcus Ericsson and Nolan Siegel, who has only run the Iowa races, and four points more than Linus Lundqvist. Ed Carpenter has 32 points, one more than Felix Rosenqvist.
Pietro Fittipaldi and Conor Daly are tied on 26 points, though Daly did not run the first race of the Iowa doubleheader as he substituted for Jack Harvey mid-weekend. Katherine Legge has 24 points from three oval starts while David Malukas has 22 points though he missed the Indianapolis 500.
With four oval races remaining, 216 oval points remain on the table. Last year, Newgarden was the unofficial oval champion while O'Ward was the top oval driver in the previous two seasons. The only Honda driver to top the oval championship since the return of manufacturer competition was Scott Dixon in 2020.
What Should Happen Based on Past Oval Races?
With much talk about the number of oval races to close the season, it has been a wonder of how this will decide the championship. Four of the final five races and six of the final eight races are on ovals. Álex Palou already admitted that the oval-heavy conclusion to the championship does not favor him. However, how should the ovals shake out?Though the belief is Palou is not in an advantageous position, his oval results are better than most. In his 17 oval races with Chip Ganassi Racing, he has seven top five finishes and 14 top ten finishes. He has three consecutive top five finishes on ovals and seven top five finishes in the last eight oval races.
Since Palou joined IndyCar in 2020, he has averaged 27.782 points per oval start. That is the fifth-best in IndyCar during that time.
To the surprise of no one, Josef Newgarden has the best average over that span. The American has averaged 41.0869 points per oval start. Patricio O'Ward is second best at 38.739 points and Scott Dixon is third at 37.217. McLaughlin has averaged 31 points per oval start since he joined IndyCar full-time in 2021.
While fifth-best, just over 13 points between Newgarden and Palou on average adds up quickly. The good news is Palou has some daylight between him and Newgarden, as 145 points would require Newgarden outscoring Palou by 36.25 points in just the oval races to catch the Catalan driver, and this isn't even considering the remaining road course race at Portland.
Based on average points per oval start, Palou should end up on 522.13 points while Dixon should be in position to move up into second with 506.968 points. O'Ward should also climb to third with 494.956 points while Power should drop to fourth on 467.739 points.
Scott McLaughlin is on pace to rise to fifth with 452 points while Herta would slide back to sixth on 439.391 points. Though he has the best track record of the field on ovals, Newgarden's past form would only get him seventh in the championship with 430.347 points.
Ovals are not in Kyle Kirkwood's favor. With an average of 15.692 points per oval start, Kirkwood is in a rough position for the conclusion to this season and is projected to fall to eighth on 376.769 points, just enough to remain ahead of Alexander Rossi's 343.782 points.
Santino Ferrucci is projected to remain in the top ten. His 21 points per oval start should have him land on 315 points through the remaining oval races. That would keep him about 18 points ahead of Felix Rosenqvist and 31 points ahead of Rinus VeeKay.
There is one other wrinkle to all this. While four of the final five oval, there is a road course remaining at Portland. Ovals will largely dictate the final phase of the IndyCar season, but they will not entirely decide the championship.
Along with way oval points shake out, Palou has the added benefit in racing at Portland, a place where he has won twice in three appearances and he has the best average points per Portland start since his first appearance in 2021. Palou has an average of 41 points per start over the last three Portland races, ahead of Dixon's average of 35.667 points and McLaughlin's average of 33 points.
Add in Portland, and Palou should end the championship with about 563.13 points, ahead of Dixon's 542.5366 points and O'Ward's 521.9565 points.
Who Needs a Win?
Five races is not a lot of time for a driver to get their first victory of the season, but it is all that is left for nearly two-dozen drivers on the IndyCar grid, and some will not get as many races as that.
Only four of the seven drivers that won in 2023 have won in 2024.
Kyle Kirkwood leads the way of those hoping to keep a winning streak going into another year. Kirkwood is the top driver in the championship without a victory in seventh. He won twice in 2023, on the streets of Long Beach and Nashville. Kirkwood is coming off a second-place finish at Toronto prior to the Olympic break, but Toronto was only his third career podium finish, all coming on street courses. No street courses remain this season. He does have three other top five results, finishing fourth at Detroit and fifth at Road America and Laguna Seca.
Christian Lundgaard was another first-time winner in 2023. In 2024, Lundgaard is also winless. He was third at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May, leading 35 laps before finishing third. It remains Lundgaard's only top five finish this season and he has only two top ten finishes in the last eight races. On ovals, his career best finish remains tenth and he has finished 13th or worse in the three oval races this year.
Marcus Ericsson has a three-year winning streak on the line. Ericsson was second in Detroit, but that is his only podium finish this season. He has not finished in the top five in an oval race since the first Iowa race last year. His best oval result this season is ninth. Though Ericsson has not won this season, he does have three top five finishes, but here is something you probably do not realize. The most top five finishes Ericsson has had in a season is five, and he has never had more than two top five finishes on ovals in a single season.
Alexander Rossi is now over two years removed from his most recent IndyCar victory, and he is also pushing six years removed from his most recent oval victory. Ovals were once a strong spot for Rossi, but short ovals have always been his crutch. A winner of 500-mile races at Indianapolis and Pocono, the American has never won on a short oval, and his only podium finish on a short oval was second at Gateway in 2018. His fourth-place finish last year at Gateway ended a streak of five consecutive Gateway races without a top ten finish.
A dozen drivers entered this weekend are looking for their first career victory. Santino Ferrucci leads that contingent as Ferrucci is tenth in the championship. Though Ferrucci has seven top ten finishes this season, including in two of three oval races, he has yet to finish in the top five in 2024. All five top five finishes in his career have come on ovals, including a fourth at Gateway in 2019. A.J. Foyt Racing has not won since the 2013 Grand Prix of Long Beach, and the organization has not won on an oval since Airton Daré at Kansas in 2002.
No driver has ever had their first career victory come at Gateway.
Indy Lights
Only four races remain in the 2024 Indy Lights season, and 75% percent of those races are on ovals as well. For Louis Foster, a championship is nearly within his grasp.
Riding a run of seven consecutive top two finishes, Foster leads the championship with 437 points and he is 77 points clear of Jacob Abel in second. With only 216 points left on the table, only seven drivers remain alive for the championship entering Gateway.
Abel started the season with a top two streak of his own, and he led the championship through the Road America round. However, he has not finished in the top two since May when Foster’s top two streak began in the second race from Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course. Abel has finished outside the top ten in two of the last three races, which includes a 15th at Iowa, the first oval race of the season, which Foster won.
Caio Collet had a worse day in Iowa, finishing 17th and ending a three-race top two streak for the Brazilian. Collet is 109 points back. Callum Hedge has finished fourth in the last two races and he is fourth in the championship, but a distant 185 points off the championship lead.
Jamie Chadwick rounds out the top five on 237 points, seven more than Reece Gold, and James Roe, Jr.’s second place finish at Iowa from pole position has him on 222 points, one point within mathematically eligibility for the championship with four races to run.
After Gateway, a driver must be within 162 points of the championship lead to remain alive for the title. Since Gateway has returned to the Indy Lights schedule, only twice in six seasons has the Gateway winner won the championship. Oliver Askew did it in 2019 and Christian Rasmussen did it last season.
Indy Ligths will run a 75-lap race around Gateway Motorsports Park at 3:55 p.m. ET on Saturday August 17.
Fast Facts
This will be the 15th IndyCar race to take place on August 17 and the first since Will Power won at Milwaukee in 2014.
Thirteen of the first 14 IndyCar races run on August 17 have come on ovals.
The only road course race held on August 17 was at Road Amercia in 1997, which Alex Zanardi won.
Gateway becomes the sixth consecutive different venue to host a race on August 17 after Pocono, Road America, Loudon, Kentucky and Milwaukee.
Once has a first-time winner come on August 17. Robbie Buhl's first career victory at Loudon was on August 17, 1997.
Gateway could become the ninth circuit where Scott Dixon has won at least three races. It could be the seventh different circuit where Dixon has won consecutive races.
David Malukas could become the first driver to win at Gateway in IndyCar and Indy Lights.
Conor Daly will drive the #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet for the remainder of the season. Juncos Hollinger Racing becomes the 11th different team in Daly's IndyCar career. Gateway will be Daly's fifth consecutive start with a different team.
Since 2017, the average number of passes in a Gateway race is 286.875 with a median of 236. The average number of passes for position in a Gateway race is 134.5 with a median of 125.
The most passes in a Gateway race since 2017 was 520 in 2022 while the most passes for position were 217 in last year's race. The fewest passes and passes for position both occurred in the first race of the 2020 doubleheader. There were 125 passes, only 65 of which were for position. Six cars were caught in an opening lap accident in that race, and that race only ran for 200 laps.
The average starting position for a Gateway winner is 4.8667 with a median of third.
Scott Dixon's victory from 16th last year was the worst starting position for a Gateway winer.
Prior to last year, nine consecutive Gateway races had been won from a top five starting position.
Seven races have been won from the front row this season, including Josef Newgarden from the third at the Indianapolis 500. Last year, only three races were won from the front row.
Since returning to the calendar in 2017, the pole position has yet to win at Gateway.
The average number of lead changes in a Gateway race is 9.2 with a median of ten.
The most lead changes in a Gateway race is 13, which occurred in 2019 and 2022. The fewest lead changes in a Gateway race is three, which occurred in 1998.
The average number of cautions in a Gateway race is 4.0667 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 37 with a median of 29.
Predictions
Colton Herta keeps it going and he wins his second consecutive race nearly a month after getting his first victory in over two years. Herta does it from pole position, there will be at least five lead changes, and Herta will have two Team Penske drivers joining him on the podium. Álex Palou will finish behind Scott Dixon, but Palou will finish inside the top eight. The total number of passes will be below the Gateway average since 2017, but it will be within 50 passes of the average. The top ten finish streak ends for at least two of Rinus VeeKay, Romain Grosjean and Graham Rahal. Felix Rosenqvist's top ten finish drought will end. The #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet will exit this weekend ahead of the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet in the entrants' championship. Sleeper: Marcis Ericsson.
