We are looking over the hypothetical league structure of IndyCar now because this upcoming weekend at Portland would be a pivotal point in the season. It would essentially be moving week. It is the final weekend of the regular season for the top league. Playoff spots and relegation are on the line.
In League Two, we know two of the promoted teams for 2025, but Portland would be the final matchup in the group stage for the second phase of the season, which determines the final promotion spot.
There is no more time to waste. Where do we stand before this crucial weekend?
League One:
Conference 1 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)
Mid-Ohio: WIN (2nd to #28's 5th)
Iowa I: LOSS (23rd to #6's 12th)
Iowa II: WIN (2nd to #26's 5th)
Toronto: WIN (3rd to #45's 7th)
Gateway: LOSS (4th to #2's 1st)
Mid-Ohio: WIN (4th to #2's 25th)
Iowa I: LOSS (11th to #5's 2nd)
Iowa II: LOSS (5th to #10's 2nd)
Toronto: WIN (1st to #10's 5th)
Gateway: WIN (5th to #28's 24th)
Mid-Ohio: WIN (1st to #11's 17th)
Iowa I: WIN (2nd to #26's 11th)
Iowa II: WIN (6th to #6's 14th)
Toronto: LOSS (17th to #2's 11th)
Gateway: LOSS (26th to #45's 15th)
4. #6 McLaren 6-7
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (20th to #45's 7th)
Iowa I: WIN (12th to #10's 23rd)
Iowa II: LOSS (14th to #5's 6th)
Toronto: LOSS (21st to #28's 18th)
Gateway: WIN (7th to #11's 8th)
5. #2 Penske 6-7
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (25th to #26's 4th)
Iowa I: WIN (3rd to #11's 10th)
Iowa II: WIN (7th to #28's 23rd)
Toronto: WIN (11th to #5's 17th)
Gateway: WIN (1st to #10's 4th)
6. #45 RLLR 5-8
Mid-Ohio: WIN (7th to #6's 20th)
Iowa I: LOSS (22nd to #28's 9th)
Iowa II: WIN (17th to #11's 19th)
Toronto: LOSS (7th to #10's 3rd)
Gateway: WIN (15th to #5's 26th)
7. #28 Andretti 5-8
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (5th to #10's 2nd)
Iowa I: WIN (9th to #45's 22nd)
Iowa II: LOSS (23rd to #2's 7th)
Toronto: WIN (18th to #6's 21st)
Gateway: LOSS (24th to #26's 5th)
8. #11 Ganassi 3-10
#2 Penske vs. #45 RLLR
#26 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
#28 Andretti vs. #11 Ganassi
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (17th to #5's 1st)
Iowa I: LOSS (10th to #2's 3rd)
Iowa II: LOSS (19th to #45's 17th)
Toronto: LOSS (5th to #26's 1st)
Gateway: LOSS (8th to #6's 7th)
Week 14 Matchups:
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 McLaren #2 Penske vs. #45 RLLR
#26 Andretti vs. #6 McLaren
#28 Andretti vs. #11 Ganassi
Conference 1 Breakdown:
This is the most settled of the two conferences, and things took a turn in the final laps at Gateway.
Álex Palou might have lost to Josef Newgarden, but Palou clinched the one-seed in this conference. Colton Herta has the #26 Andretti entry locked into second. Then it appears everyone third through seventh could either make the playoffs or miss the playoffs, and unfortunately, the relegation spot has been decided.
Starting at the bottom, the #11 Ganassi entry will be relegated. Marcus Armstrong has lost seven consecutive matchups. He went from being 3-3 after the first six weeks and coming off his first career podium finish to 3-10. There are some harsh ones in here, and those have been more recent.
Armstrong was 19th in the second Iowa race, not great, but he only lost by two spots to Christian Lundgaard. At Toronto, Armstrong was fifth but lost to Herta, who won the race. At Gateway, Armstrong lost by a spot, finishing eighth while Nolan Siegel was seventh, and for most of that race Armstrong was ahead of Siegel. If Armstrong had won at Gateway, he would have at least still been alive for staying up. Instead, he is gone... which might have been moot because Ganassi is possibly downsizing to three cars and the #11 entry was going away anyway, but we can get into that mess in the offseason.
As for the playoff spots, there are a few combinations of who could make it.
All Patricio O'Ward must do is win his matchup. The same is true for Nolan Siegel in the #6 McLaren entry as the #6 McLaren holds the tiebreaker over Josef Newgarden in the #2 Penske. The #6 McLaren beat Newgarden in both head-to-head matchups, first at St. Petersburg after Newgarden was disqualified and then at Laguna Seca.
Christian Lundgaard and Marcus Ericsson could both finish 6-8 while the #6 McLaren and the #2 Penske could also finish 6-8. Then we have a four-way tiebreaker to decide the final spot. We should cover all the pertinent tiebreakers here because they are likely to come into play.
The #5 McLaren owns the tiebreaker over the #6 McLaren (2-0 in both matchups).
The #6 McLaren owns the tiebreaker over the #2 Penske (2-0 in both matchups).
The #2 Penske owns the tiebreaker over the #5 McLaren (2-0 in both matchups).
Remember, the tiebreaker is head-to-head results, then most victories, then most second-place finishes, and so on until the tie is broken.
In the case of a three-way tie, it would right now be the #5 McLaren and #2 Penske making it in that order. The #5 McLaren and the #2 Penske have each won two races. However, if Newgarden were to finish second at Portland, Newgarden would move ahead of O'Ward for third as they would be level on victories and second-place finishes with Newgarden getting the edge with one third-place finish to O'Ward's zero.
It gets a little messier when factoring in the #45 RLLR and #28 Andretti entries. Here is how those two entries, the #6 McLaren and the #2 Penske stand on tiebreakers.
#6 McLaren
Owns tiebreaker over #2 Penske (2-0).
Loses tiebreaker to #45 RLLR (1-1, #45's best finish is third to #6's seventh).
Owns tiebreaker over #28 Andretti (2-0).
#2 Penske
Losses tiebreaker to #6 McLaren (0-2).
Owns tiebreaker over #45 RLLR (1-0, both meet in the final weekend at Portland, but the #2 Penske has locked this with two victories to at best the #45's one if the #45 wins at Portland).
Owns tiebreaker over #28 Andretti (1-1, #2's best finish is first in two races to #28's second).
#45 RLLR
Owns tiebreaker over #6 McLaren (1-1, #45's best finish is third to #6's seventh).
Losses tiebreaker to #2 Penske (0-1, both meet in the final weekend at Portland, but the #2 Penske has locked this with two victories to at best the #45's one if the #45 wins at Portland).
Losses tiebreaker to #28 Andretti (1-1, #28's best finish is second to #45's third).
#28 Andretti
Loses tiebreaker to #6 McLaren (0-2).
Loses tiebreaker to #2 Penske (1-1, #2's best finish is first in two races to #28's second).
Owns tiebreaker over #45 RLLR (1-1, #28's best finish is second to #45's third).
What happens if there is a three-way tie?
We go off of head-to-head matchups involving the three teams. For there to be any three-way tie, both the #6 McLaren and #2 Penske must lose, and if Newgarden loses, then Lundgaard and the #45 RLLR will be involved in the tiebreaker.
In that case, we would see it play out like this...
#6 McLaren 3-1
#45 RLLR 2-2
#2 Penske 1-3
The #6 McLaren gets the final playoff spot, the #45 RLLR would be fifth and get the safety spot for the 2025 season while the #2 Penske would be in the relegation playoff.
What happens if there is a four-way tie with the #28 Andretti winning the final weekend of the season while the #6 McLaren and #2 Penske both lose? Again, it would be head-to-head involving the tied teams.
#6 McLaren 5-1
#45 RLLR 3-3
#2 Penske 2-4
#28 Andretti 2-4
It plays out the same with a three-way tie. The #6 McLaren is in, the #45 RLLR is safe for 2025 and the #2 Penske and #27 Andretti are in the relegation playoff. There is technically no way either the #45 RLLR or #28 Andretti can make the playoffs. They can finish tied for fourth but never get fourth on tiebreaker.
Consider Conference One thoroughly covered, and this is the most settled of the two conferences!
Conference 2 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)
1. #3 Penske 9-4
Mid-Ohio: WIN (3rd to #77's 23rd)
Iowa I: WIN (1st to #7's 8th)
Iowa II: WIN (3rd to #27's 16th)
Toronto: LOSS (16th to #8's 13th)
Gateway: WIN (2nd to #12's 19th)
2. #9 Ganassi 8-5
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (27th to #15's 18th)
Iowa I: WIN (4th to #27's 7th)
Iowa II: WIN (4th to #7's 15th)
Toronto: WIN (3rd to #12's 12th)
Gateway: LOSS (11th to #8's 3rd)
Mid-Ohio: WIN (8th to #12's 11th)
Iowa I: LOSS (7th to #9's 4th)
Iowa II: LOSS (16th to #3's 3rd)
Toronto: WIN (2nd to #15's 10th)
Gateway: LOSS (22nd to #77's 16th)
4. #12 Penske 7-6
5. #7 McLaren 6-7Mid-Ohio: LOSS (11th to #27's 8th)
Iowa I: LOSS (18th to #15's 16th)
Iowa II: WIN (1st to #77's 10th)
Toronto: LOSS (12th to #9's 3rd)
Gateway: LOSS (19th to #3's 2nd)
Mid-Ohio: WIN (6th to #8's 15th)
Iowa I: LOSS (8th to #3's 1st)
Iowa II: LOSS (15th to #9's 4th)
Toronto: LOSS (14th to #77's 9th)
Gateway: WIN (18th to 23rd)
6. #15 RLLR 5-8
Mid-Ohio: WIN (18th to #9's 27th)
Iowa I: WIN (16th to #12's 18th)
Iowa II: WIN (8th to #8's 12th)
Toronto: LOSS (10th to #27's 2nd)
Gateway: LOSS (23rd to #7's 18th)
7. #77 JHR 5-8
8. #8 Ganassi 4-9Mid-Ohio: LOSS (23rd to #3's 3rd)
Iowa I: LOSS (24th to #8's 21st)
Iowa II: LOSS (10th to #12's 1st)
Toronto: WIN (9th to #7's 14th)
Gateway: WIN (16th to #27's 22nd)
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (15th to #7's 6th)
Iowa I: WIN (21st to #77's 24th)
Iowa II: LOSS (12th to #15's 8th)
Toronto: WIN (13th to #3's 16th)
Gateway: WIN (3rd to #9's 11th)
Week 14 Matchups:
#9 Ganassi vs. #3 Penske#8 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#7 McLaren vs. #27 Andretti
#15 RLLR vs. #77 JHR
Conference 2 Breakdown:
Everything appears up for grabs in Conference Two.
First seed.
The final playoff spot.
Fifth and safety for next season.
The relegation playoffs.
Relegation.
Everyone is playing for something. There is so much at stake it is too much to cover here. Let's cover what is easiest.
The #3 Penske is locked in the playoffs. The #9 Penske and #27 Andretti are locked in the playoffs. It is just a matter of sending for them. Any of those three could be the #1-seed. How do those tiebreakers look?
#1-Seed Picture
If Scott McLaughlin wins at Portland over Scott Dixon, the #3 Penske clinches the one-seed.
If Dixon wins at Portland and Kyle Kirkwood loses, the #3 Penske clinches the one-seed as the #3 Penske and #9 Ganassi would be 1-1 head-to-head, tied with two victories, but McLaughlin has a runner-up finish while Dixon does not and even if Dixon finishes second at Portland, McLaughlin has three third-place finishes to Dixon's two.
Can anyone other than the #3 Penske get the #1-seed?
Let's say Dixon wins and Kirkwood wins, that leads to a three-way tie at 9-5. How do those three shake out head-to-head?
#3 Penske 3-1
#9 Ganassi 2-2
#27 Andretti 1-3
The #3 Penske actually has locked up the one-seed. McLaughlin owns every tie-breaking scenario. Dixon cannot flip the tiebreaker against him. McLaughlin is already 2-0 against Kirkwood. Dixon and Kirkwood split their matchups, but Dixon has two victories to Kirkwood's zero.
What actually looks to be wide-open is pretty much decided.
The #3 Penske is the #1-seed even if McLaughlin loses to Dixon and even if there is a three-way tie.
A Dixon loss combined with a Kirkwood win is the only way Kirkwood can get the #2-seed.
If you want to entertain what happens if any of Dixon, Kirkwood and Will Power finishing tied at 8-6...
Dixon went 2-0 against Power this year.
Power and Kirkwood split their matchups, but Power has two victories.
If there is a three-way tie, Dixon would be on top ahead of Power and Kirkwood.
Power has Alexander Rossi to worry about for the final playoff spot as Power is 7-6 and the #7 McLaren is 6-7, except Power doesn't need to worry. Power and Rossi split their head-to-head matchups and Power has two victories to Rossi's none. The playoff spots are actually set in Conference Two. It is actually all about seeding.
Maybe the tiebreakers need a tweak. It is kind of anti-climatic if there is no way someone can advance even if beating their many rival for a playoff spot on the final weekend. It makes sense to want the best drivers in the playoffs and consider who won races, but it does take away some of the drama of a team fighting from behind. We can think about that during the offseason.
Playoff spots aside, the #7 McLaren is fighting to hold onto fifth and avoid the relegation playoff. Meanwhile, the #15 RLLR and #77 JHR could be relegated while the #8 Ganassi is fighting for safety. At least, that is how it looks on paper. I am discovering how these tiebreakers shake out as I go along. It could be just as anti-climatic as above and it could be a case where the #8 Ganassi will be relegated no matter what. We are discovering together. Let's see if that is the case.
No matter what, one of the #15 RLLR or the #77 JHR will finish 5-9. Graham Rahal faces Romain Grosjean at Portland. If Linus Lundqvist wins in the #8 Ganassi, we will have a tie for seventh and avoiding the automatic relegation position. What happens in either scenario?
Rahal beat Lundqvist in both their matchups. The #8 Ganassi is relegated in such a scenario.
Lundqvist beat Grosjean in both their matchups. The #77 JHR is relegated in such a scenario.
Lundqvist must do his half of the bargain, but he will also need to be the biggest Graham Rahal fan.
As for fifth, there is a world where the #7 McLaren and either the #15 RLLR or the #77 JHR finish tied at 6-8.
The #7 McLaren went 2-0 over the #15 RLLR while the #7 McLaren and the #77 JHR split their matchups. The #7 McLaren's best finish is third to the #77 JHR's fourth. It is not over, but it heavily favors the #7 McLaren.
There is a little more drama in Conference Two compared to Conference One. Once Portland is over, the playoff picture will be clear and we will know how the bracket shakes out.
League Two (Top two automatically promoted)
1. #14 Foyt 8-2
Mid-Ohio: WIN (10th to #41's 16th)
Iowa I: WIN (6th to #66's 26th)
Iowa II: BYE
2. #60 MSR 7-3
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (14th to #66's 12th)
Iowa I: WIN (13th to #18's 25th)
Iowa II: LOSS (26th to #51's 24th)
3. #66 MSR 6-4
Mid-Ohio: WIN (12th to #60's 14th)
Iowa I: LOSS (26th to #14's 6th)
Iowa II: WIN (13th to #18's 27th)
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (19th to #51's 13th)
Iowa I: WIN (5th to #41's 15th)
Iowa II: WIN (9th to #4's 18th)
5. #4 Ganassi 5-5
Mid-Ohio: WIN (21st to #30's 24th)
Iowa I: WIN (14th to #20's 20th)
Iowa II: LOSS (18th to #21's 9th)
6. #78 JHR 4-6
Mid-Ohio: WIN (22nd to #18's 26th)
Iowa I: BYE
Iowa II: LOSS (25th to #30's 20th)
7. #41 Foyt 4-6
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (16th to #14's 10th)
Iowa I: LOSS (15th to #21's 5th)
Iowa II: WIN (21st to #20's 22nd)
8. #18 DCR 4-6
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (26th to #78's 22nd)
Iowa I: LOSS (25th to #60's 13th)
Iowa II: LOSS (27th to #66's 13th)
9. #51 DCR 4-6
Mid-Ohio: WIN (13th to #21's 19th)
Iowa I: WIN (17th to #30's 19th)
Iowa II: WIN (24th to #60's 26th)
10. #20 ECR 3-7
Mid-Ohio: BYE
Iowa I: LOSS (20th to #4's 14th)
Iowa II: LOSS (22nd to #41's 21st)
11. #30 RLLR 3-7
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (24th to #4's 21st)
Iowa I: LOSS (19th to #51's 17th)
Iowa II: WIN (20th to #78's 25th)
League Two Breakdown:
The #14 Foyt entry and the #60 MSR entry locked up the automatic promotion spots. Those were the best two entries in League Two for the entire season. There was a small chance the #66 MSR could have snuck into one of the top two spots after David Malukas beat Felix Rosenqvist at Mid-Ohio, but it required the #66 MSR winning the final three weeks with the #60 MSR ending the regular season 0-3. That didn't happen and the #60 got the spot.
For the remaining nine teams, the second phase of the season was in play, and the bottom of League Two would be excluded as there are only eight spots in the second phase. There was a tie at the bottom between the #20 ECR entry and the #30 RLLR entry, but the #20 ECR beat the #30 RLLR head-to-head. It was at Laguna Seca and Christian Rasmussen finished 13th while Pietro Fittipaldi finished 14th.
Sometimes, it is that close. The eight remaining teams were allocated into two groups for a single round robin over three race weekends. The top two from each group will enter the promotion playoff over the two Milwaukee races. We are through two of three matchups in the group stage. How do things look?
League Two Second Phase (Through Two Matchups. Top two from each group moves to promotion playoffs)
Group A
1. #41 Foyt 2-0
Toronto: WIN (25th to #78's 26th)
Gateway: WIN (9th to #66's 21st)
Portland: vs. #20 ECR
2. #66 MSR 1-1
Toronto: WIN (6th to #20's 27th)
Gateway: LOSS (21st to #41's 9th)
Portland: vs. #78 JHR
3. #78 JHR 1-1
Toronto: LOSS (26th to #41's 25th)
Gateway: WIN (13th to #20's 17th)
Portland: vs. #66 MSR
4. #20 ECR 0-2
Toronto: LOSS (27th to #66's 6th)
Gateway: LOSS (17th to #78's 13th)
Portland: vs. #41 Foyt
Group B
1. #21 ECR 2-0
Toronto: WIN (8th to #51's 15th)
Gateway: WIN (10th to #18's 20th)
Portland: vs. #4 CGR
2. #4 CGR 2-0
Toronto: WIN (22nd to #18's 24th)
Gateway: WIN (25th to #51's 27th)
Portland: vs. #21 ECR
3. #18 DCR 0-2
Toronto: LOSS (24th to #4's 22nd)
Gateway: LOSS (20th to #21's 10th)
Portland: vs. #51 DCR
4. #51 DCR 0-2
Toronto: LOSS (15th to #21's 8th)
Gateway: LOSS (27th to #4's 25th)
Portland: vs. #18 DCR
League Two Phase Two Breakdown:
Sting Ray Robb picked the right time to get hot, or fortunate enough that a 25th at Toronto would get him a head-to-head victory. The #41 Foyt entry has secured one of the spots in the promotion playoff, and the top spot of Group A, as Robb owns the tiebreaker against either of the other two entries that could advance from Group A.
The final spot from Group A will come down to the #66 MSR and the #78 JHR entry. The #20 ECR entry is out of it at 0-2.
It will be David Malukas vs. Conor Daly, two drivers that did not start in these respective entries, determining who remains alive for a League One spot in 2025.
Group B is decided. Both Dale Coyne Racing entries lost their first two matchups while the #21 ECR and #4 Ganassi entries enter the final matchup tied at 2-0 and facing each other to determine seeding with the loser guaranteed to be facing Sting Ray Robb and the #41 Foyt entry in the semifinal in the first Milwaukee race.
At least this is much more straightforward than what we saw in the League One picture. Consider yourself thoroughly prepared and informed for something that does not exist.
