2018 Sports Car Predictions

We have reached the penultimate set of predictions for 2018; four sports car series, two American-based, one European-based and a world series. We are seeing the landscape of sports car racing change in most of these series. Manufactures are leaving. Some manufactures are entering. Regulations are changing. And we still have Balance of Performance and driver rankings to try to ignore.

1. IMSA: Cadillac does not win more than 50% of the races
Cadillac got it right in 2017 and no one came close. Wayne Taylor Racing won the first five races and Action Express Racing made it seven consecutive victories before Extreme Speed Motorsports Nissan took two of the final three races with the Laguna Seca victory by the Ligier-Gibson of VisitFlorida Racing sandwiched in-between.

Cadillac will have all three cars return and gain the rebranded Spirit of Daytona Racing. However, I think we will see Nissan make a gain, Mazda come back strong and Team Penske Acura pull no punches. The Prototype grid is going to be massive and perhaps the Balance of Performance finally catches Cadillac. Wayne Taylor Racing sees Ricky Taylor leave and Renger van der Zande enter. Filipe Albuquerque joins João Barbosa in the #5 Cadillac and Dane Cameron is gone from the #31 Cadillac and Felipe Nasr enters. A lot of changes have occurred and it will shake things up.

2. At least two new teams pick up victories in Prototypes
Would anybody be surprised if Team Penske won the 24 Hours of Daytona? No. Would anyone be surprised if Team Joest found a way to win at Mosport? No. Those teams are two top shelf teams and and they will be in contention for victories almost from the drop of the hat. Team Penske drafted in two past Prototype champions in Dane Cameron and Ricky Taylor and the team brings Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves to the table. Team Joest kept Jonathan Bomarito and Tristan Nunez and brought in Harry Tincknell and Oliver Jarvis. Both teams will win races.

Besides the Acura and Mazda efforts, there is also JDC-Miller Motorsports, which saw the #85 Oreca of Misha Goikhberg and Stephan Simpson and finished fourth in the championship with two runner-up finishes. CORE Autosport enters the class full-time with Colin Braun and Jon Bennett and there is also the possibility a one-off wins the 24 Hours of Daytona. Could United Autosport steal a victory with one of its two all-star entries? What about Jackie Chan DC Racing with Jota? There will be new faces on top.

3. No GTLM team successfully defends a class victory
What do I mean by this? No team will win at a track in 2018 that they won at in 2017. So this means the #66 Ford GT won't win the 24 Hours of Daytona nor will the #3 Corvette win the 12 Hours of Sebring. The #4 Corvette won't go back-to-back at Long Beach nor will the #25 BMW Team RLL defend its Petit Le Mans victory. You get the picture. This is the stretch but you got to try something different that could be a risk.

4. WEC: Toyota wins the 2018 24 Hours of Le Mans but does not sweep the overall podium
It has to be Toyota's year. It is the only manufacture in LMP1 for 2018 and likely also for 2019. The team is likely going to field three cars. One of them have to be good enough and not breakdown to win the race. However, knowing Toyota's history, one of those cars will crap out. It is bound to happen. One of them is going to have a $2 piece fail on them or have a car spin in the wet and back into the barrier. Toyota should win it. If it doesn't, the manufacture may need to disband entirely.

5. Gianmaria Bruni wins more races than Ferrari in 2018
The Italian is back and he is going to a top team. He replaces Frédéric Makowiecki and joins Richard Leitz. The Austrian-French combination finished second in the World GT Drivers' Championship despite not winning a race. Porsche did not win a race in GTE-Pro in 2017 despite nine podium finishes between the manufactures' two entries. He is fresh off a limited 2017 season and Porsche has a good car. Plus, with the LMP1 program gone, this is Porsche's child and it will make sure it comes out on top. Ferrari won five out of nine races in 2017. I don't think Bruni wins five races but he will take victories away from AF Corse.

6. Less than 50% of the races in 2018 feature a British winner in GTE-Pro
Eight of nine GTE-Pro winners featured at least one British driver. The exception was at Mexico City where the all-Danish line up of Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim won in the #95 Aston Martin. There are a lot of British drivers lined up to be in GTE-Pro. James Calado is the defending champion with Alessandro Pier Guidi. Sam Bird won twice with Davide Rigon. Ford is keeping Andy Priaulx and Harry Tincknell and they won twice. Darren Turner will likely be back with Aston Martin.

Four of eight full-time GTE-Pro entries had a British driver in 2017. BMW enters and could bring Alexander Sims to the grid. Porsche will not have a full-time British driver but will have Nick Tandy come in at Le Mans. This is like the GTLM prediction. It is a stretch but it doesn't hurt to throw it out there.

7. ELMS: Each class champion has more than one victory
The LMP2 champion #22 G-Drive Racing Oreca and the #66 JMW Motorsport Ferrari each only won once during the 2017 season. Both teams were consistent and that was enough to get the respective championship. However, I think teams will have to win multiple times in 2018 to take the championship. The #32 United Autosport Ligier and the #40 Graff Oreca each won twice in 2017. The #55 Spirit of Race Ferrari won back-to-back races but could not finish on the podium in any other races. One victory will not be good enough in 2018.

8. There will be fewer victories by American drivers
In 2017, American drivers won five times with Will Owen taking two victories in LMP2 with the #32 United Autosport Ligier, the #2 United Autosport Ligier of Sean Rayhall and John Falb won twice in LMP3 and Mark Patterson won in the #3 United Autosport Ligier in LMP3. That is quite a bit of success and United Autosport is a top team. Will Owen is slated to be back in ELMS for 2018 but I am not sure he can match his success and we see drivers rotate frequently in ELMS because of driver ranking changes.

9. A French driver wins at least once in the GTE class
A French driver has not won a GTE race in ELMS since 2015 and only twice has there been French winners in GTE since ACO took over control of the series in 2013. There are a lot of French drivers that go through ELMS but most seem to head to LMP2 and LMP3. One of them will eventually land in GTE and we are due for a French winner. Although, we could know before the 2018 season opener at Circuit Paul Ricard if this prediction has a shot of coming true.

10. PWC: American automobiles win more GT races than they did in 2017
Cadillac is out and that is a blow for the series. The manufacture only won three of the 19 GT races between Sprint and SprintX seasons. However, the introduction of the Callaway Corvette to the series could be a saving grace and the two-car effort has picked up two stellar drivers. Michael Cooper moves over to Callaway Corvette from Cadillac and ADAC GT Masters champion Daniel Keilwitz joins the series. The Callaway Corvette has been highly competitive and successful in Germany the last few years and if grid sizes are down then I expect Cooper and Keilwitz to pick up their fair share of victories.

11. The average number of GT entires in SprintX is down by at least two cars
We are seeing teams exit PWC in worrying numbers. Magnus Racing has returned to IMSA after one season in PWC. The championship winning Wright Motorsport has left for IMSA. Cadillac is gone. Gainsco/Bob Stallings Racing has shut its doors. It is a bit worrying and the series had a really good first full season of SprintX.

The 2017 season saw an average of 25 GT entires per the five SprintX rounds. The season opener at VIR had the most entires with 29 GT cars and the lowest number of GT entires was 22 entries for the finale at Circuit of the Americas. It is tough to see two-dozen GT cars entered for each race.

12. The top five drivers in the GTS championship each win at least one race
Last year was an odd year in GTS. Lawson Aschenbach won the championship despite only winning two races. The lack of full-time competition and the Panoz Avezzano GT working out the kinks for the first half of the season were the two main reasons. However, while Aschenbach and Ian James were dominant, you had a handful of part-time drivers sweep race weekends. Andrew Aquilante, Nico Jamin and Jade Buford all swept race weekends and they combined to make seven starts.

Martin Barkey finished third in the championship and he had one podium finish. Flying Lizard drivers Rodrigo Baptista and Nate Stacy finished fourth and fifth in the championship and Baptista won four races. I am hopeful there is more full-time competition in GTS in 2018 and there is more competition for the championship.

Four down, one to go. Catch up on predictions for NASCAR, Formula One and et cetera. Tomorrow, we close 2017 with the final post of the year and it will be IndyCar predictions.