2026 IndyCar Predictions

And here we are at the final day of 2025. Can you believe it is already 2025? A quarter of a century is behind us, and yet it feels like it just began. It has gone fast and it is not slowing down. 

Enough of the existential pondering for a moment, we have an annual tradition to attend to. Every year, we hit New Year's Eve, and we end the year with IndyCar predictions for the next year. It has been a while since our most recent IndyCar, 123 days to be exact, but who is counting? At least we are two-thirds of the way through the offseason. Only 61 days to go. That is only two months! If we have survived four months, what are another two more? 

My goodness, that is depressing to write. 

Well, fuck it. Let's get ready with a dozen predictions for the new season.

1. Will Power finishes in the top three of street course points

When the green flag waves on March 1, 2026 at St. Petersburg, it will be the first time since September 7, 2008 at Chicagoland Speedway Will Power starts an IndyCar race for a team other than Team Penske. Power will begin his Andretti Global-era, and after seeing how 2025 ended, Power is motivated. 

It was not the cleanest end to his time at Penske, but Power did end as the best Penske driver in the championship. He was ninth, and one point ahead of Scott McLaughlin.

Power did finish in the top five in two of four street course races in 2025. He was taken out on the opening lap at St. Petersburg, and he dropped like a rock at Toronto but did enough to finish 11th.

We are approaching four years since Power's most recent street course victory, and he is one of the best street course drivers in IndyCar history. He is joining a team that has been pretty on point when it comes to street races in recent seasons. Kyle Kirkwood won two of the four in 2025, and Kirkwood also won two of the five street races in 2023. 

Andretti Global has won five of 13 street races over the last three seasons. That is tied for the most with Chip Ganassi Racing. Patricio O'Ward has won two of them with Arrow McLaren. Christian Lundgaard won the other with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.

In 2025, Kirkwood scored the most points in street races with 165, 48 points more than Álex Palou. O'Ward was 51 points back on 114 points and Colton Herta had 112. Even Marcus Ericsson cracked the top eighth with 94 points. 

Will Power was tenth in street course points in 2025 with 87.

The Andretti switch will see Power flourish on street courses, and he will return to being one of the best at them.

2. Josef Newgarden will at least double his top five finish total

The 2025 season was a season from hell for Josef Newgarden. If something could go wrong, it went wrong for Newgarden. Races went against Newgarden in creative ways.

Seatbelts came undone while in the top five at Long Beach. The car failed him in the Indianapolis 500. He had nowhere to go when Louis Foster spun in front of him exiting turn four at Gateway. He spun over the final corner at Road America. He spun at the start at Mid-Ohio. He was on the wrong side of a caution twice in the second Iowa race. He was collected in turn one when Jacob Abel ran wide, and he was spun in the chicane when he exited the pit lane ahead of Scott Dixon at Portland, and it then took Newgarden two laps to get the car re-fired.

Of those eight races that went horribly wrong for Newgarden, at least half of those should have been top five results, Long Beach, Gateway, Iowa and Portland, and he probably would have been in the top five at Indianapolis as well. 

Newgarden only had three top five finishes in 2025. He definitely should have had more. I think six is the lowest bar. There are six oval races. He could be in the top five of all six oval races. He is the most recent Phoenix winner. He has won two of the last three Indianapolis 500s. He is the best to ever race at Gateway. He just won at Nashville. He probably should have finished in the top five at Milwaukee as well in 2025 had he not been shuffled back due to him not taking tires under the final caution, one of three drivers not to stop, and there will be two Milwaukee races next year! 

Even if he only gets four top five finishes on ovals next year, he is going to be better on road and street courses. There were some flukey results in 2025 that aren't going to repeat themselves in 2026. It will be better. 

3. Álex Palou will not lead the championship after at least six races

Palou went wire-to-wire. He led the championship after every race in 2025. In 2024, he led the championship after 12 of 17 races, and he led the championship for the final ten events. In 2023, he took the championship lead at the fifth race and never looked back, leading for 13 races. Even in his first championship season in 2021 he led the championship after 11 of 16 races. 

Every season where Palou has not led the championship after at least six races, he has not won the championship that season. But in every season where he has not led the championship leader for no more than five races, he has been champion. 

As great and as inevitable as Palou has been in IndyCar, this is IndyCar. Nothing lasts forever. Things swing from one side to the next. He will still be great and be the driver to beat, but to think he is going to lead the championship after at least 12 races again after he has led the championship after 42 of the last 51 races is expecting a lot. 

Only one driver has won four consecutive championships. Palou damn well could become the second driver to do it, but it will not be as big of a walkover as we have seen before.

4. Scott Dixon will win a race where he leads at least the final 10% of the race

Dixon was a little fortunate to win a race in 2025. If Álex Palou does not have a brain fade with six laps to go and drive off the road, Dixon does not win at Mid-Ohio. Palou did his best to get the lead back, but once behind Dixon, he could not make the pass for the victory. Any other day, Dixon does not win that race, Palou is celebrating his seventh victory in the first ten races, and we likely do not see a Dixon victory in 2025.

Dixon only led 91 laps in 2025. He led seven races, and in four of those, he led five laps or fewer. This was the second consecutive season Dixon failed to lead 100 laps. From 2006 to 2023, he only failed to lead 100 laps once (97 laps in 2014). 

Every time we get concerned about Dixon and his winning streak and whether or not he has lost a step, he wins a race or goes on a run and wins three races in a four-race span, and he still finishes at the top of the championship. If 2025 was a bad year, it was a bad year when he was third in the championship and his only finish worse than 12th was 20th in the Indianapolis 500 when his brakes caught on fire under caution before lap 30, and the team made a late decision to change the brakes, which cost Dixon multiple laps. 

At Mid-Ohio, Dixon led 11 laps total, but he only led the final six laps, the final 6.667%. In 2026, Dixon will win another race, but this time he will win the race and lead the final 10% of the race. Let's say it is the Indianapolis 500, he would need to lead the final 20 laps, which is asking a lot at Indianapolis, but at Mid-Ohio, he would just need to lead the final nine laps. At Gateway, he would need to lead the final 26 laps. 

You get the picture. It is doable.

5. Meyer Shank Racing wins a race

This is the most cut-and-dry prediction, and it is a little boring. It will either happen or it won't. 

In the last two seasons, MSR has come close to victory with Felix Rosenqvist having some memorable runs. Last year, Marcus Armstrong had a remarkable season as both MSR drivers ended up in the top eight of the championship. Both MSR drivers finished ahead of all three Team Penske drivers in the championship. No one saw that coming!

The technical partnership with Chip Ganassi Racing helps, and it is bound to pay off with something special. Felix Rosenqvist was maybe a lap or two shy of beating Álex Palou at Road America, but a special fuel-saving drive led to another Palou victory. The pace has been there for MSR. I think this is the year MSR gets a victory. Either driver could do it. 

6. Rinus VeeKay scores the most points for a Juncos Hollinger Racing driver

After a stellar season at Dale Coyne Racing saw VeeKay take a team that could not finish better than 13th in the 2024 season to finish 14th in the championship with a runner-up finish at Toronto and an impressive fourth-place finish at Barber Motorsports Park, VeeKay has moved to JHR, his third team in three seasons. 

JHR has yet to win an IndyCar race. In the eight seasons it has competed in IndyCar, the last four has seen at least one full-time entry, JHR has one podium finish and five top five finishes. It has never had a driver finish better than 16th in the championship. VeeKay has never finished worse than 14th in the championship. 

The most points for a JHR driver came last year. Conor Daly scored 268 points, but he was 18th in the championship. Romain Grosjean was a spot better in 2024, but Grosjean scored eight fewer points. Callum Ilott was 16th in 2023 with 266 points. 

Based on VeeKay's track record, he should top this. He has never scored fewer than 277 points in a season. His average points total is 301.667. There are some reasons to believe this will be one hill too high for VeeKay to summit. JHR has struggled for pace with a selection of drivers, some on par if not better than VeeKay. We knew Dale Coyne Racing could be competitive, and it wasn't a complete surprise VeeKay got get top ten finishes there. There is no reason to feel confident he can get six to eight top ten finishes at JHR. 

However, if all he needs is 269 points, and that would have been good enough for 18th last season, I think VeeKay gets there.

7. Christian Lundgaard will have consecutive top five finishes and one of those finishes will be fourth or fifth

Lundgaard was the surprise to start 2025. He had three podium finishes in the first four races and it looked like he was set to take the spot as best McLaren driver. Patricio O'Ward did come on in the second-third of the season and ended up finishing second in the championship while Lundgaard wound up fifth. 

A few results went against Lundgaard that were out of his control, and his season became defined by either being on the verge of victory or shuffled at the back of the pack. He had six podium finishes in 2025, but zero finishes of fourth and zero finishes of fifth.

That changes, and Lundgaard will have a pair of races where he finishes in the top five in both, and one of those results will be a fourth or a fifth. In his career, 69 starts, Lundgaard has finished fourth in three races, but not since the August 2023 Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course races, and his only fifth-place result was the 2022 season finale at Laguna Seca. 

8. Alexander Rossi will lead at least 100 laps

It has been a rough few seasons for Alexander Rossi. He left Andretti Autosport for McLaren in hopes of being a championship contender, and in two seasons won zero races and never finished better than ninth in the championship, the same form he showed in his final three seasons at Andretti. Last season, he moved to Ed Carpenter Racing, where for the first time in his IndyCar career he failed to have a podium finish in a season. 

With an average finish of 13.764 and a championship finish of 14th, this was Rossi's worst season in IndyCar. 

Rossi has not led 100 laps in a season since 2019. He has led fewer than 50 laps in three of the last five seasons. 

However, that changes in 2026. Rossi will hit 100 laps led. Ed Carpenter Racing hit good form on ovals at the end of this season, capped off with Christian Rasmussen taking victory at Milwaukee. Rossi was looking competitive at Indianapolis last year before mechanical issues ended his race. One good oval race could be 100 laps led in one go. If he has three good oval races, that could be 40 or 50 laps led a pop and that will get him there easily.

9. Each Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry finishes better in the entrant's championship

It couldn't be much worse. The best RLLR entry in 2025 was 19th. Two of the entries didn't even crack the top 22. There are only 27 full-time cars. 

It does feel like we are going through another cycle for RLLR, and after the last three years of spinning downward, it is time for the team to rise. I don't think it can get back to the championship top five in 2026, but it just needs each car to do a little better. 

Graham Rahal had the #15 Honda in 19th. Rahal was only eight points off 18th. He had eight finishes outside the top fifteen. If he lowers that number to four, he will would get another spot in the championship.

Louis Foster was 23rd in the #45 Honda, and he was tied on 213 points with the #6 McLaren Chevrolet of Nolan Siegel. Foster had zero top ten finishes, but he had a few close calls. He had seven finishes between 11th and 14th in 2024. If he turned one 11th into a tenth, he would have been 22nd. If he turns three of those finishes into top ten results, he could be 21st and jump the #90 Prema entry. 

Then you have Mick Schumacher taking over the third RLLR entry, the re-numbered #47 Honda. This car was the second-worst entry in the championship in 2025. Devlin DeFrancesco had the #30 Honda in 26th on 171 points. That was ten points off the #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet in 25th. DeFrancesco was averaging barely over ten points a race. I don't see how Schumacher could do that poorly. To get to 25th, he just would need to average 10.647 points per race. I feel like Schumacher should be able to do that accidentally. 

I don't know how high a RLLR entry could rise in 2026, but if the #15 Honda is 17th with the #47 Honda in 18th and the #45 Honda in 19th, that fulfills the prediction, even if RLLR would have some work to do.

10. Fewer than 50 points will separate Marcus Ericsson and Dennis Hauger

Depending on how you read this, either Dennis Hauger is going to do very well or Marcus Ericsson is going to do very bad, because there is no middle ground. 

Ericsson's second season at Andretti Global was a slip backward from an already poor position after 2024. Ericsson was 20th in the championship. He was 26 points behind Graham Rahal. Ericsson had one top five finish. He had two top ten finishes over the entire season. It was his worst season in IndyCar by far. 

Meanwhile, Dale Coyne Racing had Rinus VeeKay in 14th and 71 points clear of Ericsson. 

I don't think 2026 will be as bad for Ericsson, and I don't think Hauger will immediately hit the level VeeKay reached, even though Hauger's Coyne entry will be run in partnership with Andretti Global. I think there is a middle ground where Ericsson rises back to 14th or 15th in the championship, but Hauger ends up being 16th or 17th, wins Rookie of the Year, and these two drivers are pretty darn close. 

11. Indianapolis 500 one-offs will lead fewer than a third of the race

The 2025 Indianapolis 500 will have a strange place in the history book. It already has a strange place, but it will develop as we get away from it.

Takuma Sato led the most laps. Ryan Hunter-Reay led the second-most. They combined to lead 99 laps. Throw in Jack Harvey leading three laps and Ed Carpenter leading one, and Indianapolis 500 one-offs led over half the race in 2025. No full-time driver led more than 17 laps, and those drivers were Marcus Ericsson and Devlin DeFrancesco!

Don't worry, we will not see the same thing again in 2026, and we will see a market correction. A third of the Indianapolis 500 is 66.667 laps. One-off drivers are not going to lead more than 67 laps next year. They could led a few laps. Hunter-Reay has moved to McLaren for the 2026 Indianapolis 500. Sato could be back. Hélio Castroneves is still going to be out there. There is a chance one of those drivers could lead 30 or 40 laps on their own. The 2025 race was such an obscure event in how it played out from start to finish that I don't see one-off drivers leading that many laps again.

12. A country wins a World Cup match and an IndyCar race on the same day

This is a fun one, as The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held in the United States, Mexico and Canada, and IndyCar will be intertwined in a sense as the Nashville race is scheduled to follow the 2026 World Cup Final. 

The World Cup begins on June 11 with the final on July 19. There will be three days in which an IndyCar race and World Cup matches are both occurring. For this one to be correct, a country must win its match and the IndyCar race winner that day must be from one of the countries that win a match.

For example, June 21 is the IndyCar race from Road America. On that same day there will be four group stage matches, the second match days for Group G and H. The matches that day are Belgium vs. Iran, New Zealand vs. Egypt, Spain vs. Saudi Arabia and Uruguay vs. Cape Verde.

There looks like only two real possibilities for June 21, but don't you like your odds? Álex Palou, Scott Dixon, Scott McLaughlin and Marcus Armstrong could all win at Road America. Spain will be heavy favorites over Saudi Arabia. New Zealand has a mighty task against Egypt, and the All Whites (yes, this is New Zealand's national team nickname) must win for this to be correct. A moral victory in a draw over Egypt will not be enough.

July 5 will see IndyCar at Mid-Ohio, and there will be two quarterfinal matches. We don't know who will be playing that day, but it could be Brazil. It could be the Netherlands. It could be Sweden (if it qualifies via its UEFA playoff). Norway is a possible option as are Germany, England, Mexico, and Spain.

Then there is the day of the final, and the door is open to any of the 48 countries that qualify to play on that day. 

Could we see a dream day where the United States lifts the World Cup and then Josef Newgarden wins again in his home race? 

Could Australia do the unthinkable while Will Power does the plausible? 

Could July 19, 2026 be the day it ends up coming home and England sees Callum Ilott take a first career victory that would very much be overshadowed? 

Or does Germany claim another World Cup while Mick Schumacher wins on an oval? 

Does Caio Collet win a rain-shortened Nashville race after Brazil wins its first World Cup since 2002 earlier that afternoon?

Anything is possible at this point.

With that thought in mind, let's close out 2026 thinking about everything that is possible in the New Year. Thank you to all those who have taken the time to read these post. Don't forget to check out any of the other sets of predictions for NASCAR, motorcycle racing, Formula One and sports car racing. They will keep you busy over the first few days of the New Year, as we will return to our usual musings on Monday.

Happy New Year! 

2026 Formula One Predictions

Christmas is behind us, and this Boxing Day falls on a Friday, which means our annual tradition of Formula One predictions takes you into the weekend. We really have no clue will happen as a new set of regulations will be introduced. It could be more of the same. It could be a giant shakeup. It could start slow and get better. It could be chaotic early and then be even-keel come the midway point of the season. We don’t know. We have no clue.

But let’s shoot from the hip anyway. 

1. There will not be a race where McLaren swaps its drivers when both are in a podium position

Perhaps the most notable moment of the 2025 season was at the Italian Grand Prix when McLaren swapped positions after Lando Norris fell behind Oscar Piastri due to a slower pit stop for Norris. The swap moved Norris back up to second, though Piastri was leading the world championship at the time. It was three points to Norris and three points away from Piastri. 

Of course, Norris won the title by two points.

This was the second consecutive season with a notable McLaren position swap after pit strategy bit one of its drivers. At Hungry in 2024, Norris was dropped to second and Piastri took the victory after pit strategy put Piastri behind his teammate.

In 2026, I don’t think that will happen again. Either McLaren will not be in a position to swap or it will not have to because the right driver will always been ahead. 

2. One race will feature a podium with at least two drivers who were not on the podium in 2025

New regulations, new possibilities. 

Somebody is going to do better than expected and experience a big leap forward. A few drivers will go through more rough patches. Some winners are going to remain winners, but the door will be open to someone else having their day in the sun. It doesn’t have to be a victory, but a third would do.

Lewis Hamilton notably did not have a podium finish in 2025. Many are skeptical Ferrari will have anything better than it did in 2025, but maybe it does. Maybe Hamilton gets lucky. He did win a sprint race. 

Fernando Alonso is going to be driving an Adrian Newey-designed Aston Martin, and Alonso was not on the podium last year. We have also seen Lance Stroll pick up podium finishes when he is in a competitive car. Don’t rule that out.

The catch here is we need the likes of Alonso and Hamilton, or Hamilton and Esteban Ocon, or Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll to be on the same podium for this prediction to be correct. Things must align. That is where it gets tricky. 

3. On at least two occasions will a driver win a race following a retirement

I keep thinking back to 2014 and Lewis Hamilton won the championship after he overcame mechanical issues that did not affect Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg in the same way. And it happened early in the season. Hamilton was out before the season opener from Melbourne even got underway, and he then won four consecutive races. Hamilton then won five consecutive races after he retired from the Belgian Grand Prix.

The level of Hamilton’s responses likely will not be matched in 2026, but why couldn’t Max Verstappen drop out after engine issues in one race only to win the next? Why couldn’t the McLarens get together in one race and then one of them win the next? 

We are going to see a few responses from one race to the next. 

4. Max Verstappen’s longest podium streak will not be greater than six races

Verstappen ended the 2025 season with ten consecutive podium finishes. Prior to that he had five podium finishes in the first 14 races and he was never on the rostrum for consecutive races. 

There will be some balance in 2026. Verstappen will not struggle, but I don’t think he will be inseparable from the podium. He could still have three streaks of five podium finishes during the season and that would be 15 podium finishes, the same total he had this past season. 

He is going to be competitive. He will likely carry the car further than it can go. I am not sure he can come close to how he ended the 2025 season where he was clearly the best over the final ten races and it nearly led to an improbable championship. 

5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli will score at least 35 points between May and June

In 2025, Antonelli scores 22 points over the six races between May and June. 

He was sixth in Miami and was seventh in the sprint race the day before. Eight points for sixth and two points for the sprint result. 

He was third in Montreal for his first career podium finish. That is 12 points. 

In the other four races, Antonelli had three retirements and he was 18th at Monaco. 

I think things go better during spring 2026. There are only five races between those two months but Miami is still a sprint weekend, and Canada becomes a sprint weekend. 

Antonelli would need to average a finish of 6.5 in the five Grand Prix to hit the 35-point total. I think he does it. 

6. Lewis Hamilton will finish in the points in more sprint races but he will have fewer sprint race points than he had in 2025

In 2025, Hamilton scores 21 points in sprint races. Eight of those were thanks to his sprint race victory in China. He scored in four sprint races (China, Miami, Austin, Interlagos)

It is nuts to think Hamilton will do better than 21 points in 2026. Let’s just say he scores in all six sprint races, he would need to average around four points per sprint race. I don’t think he will have six top five finishes in sprint races. However, I could see Hamilton being in the top eight for five of six sprint races. 

Maybe one or two are in the top five. That could be about ten points right there, but he could be eighth in two others and seventh in another. That would be a total of 14 sprint race points with five finishes in the points. It is plausible. 

7. Cadillac will not have the most double retirements

New team. Unknowns across the board. I want to be optimistic and see Cadillac score points. I want it to have a few thrilling days with Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez each having their spots to shine. But it likely will not match Haas’ debut race when Romain Grosjean finished in the top six. 

Cadillac has done all the right things to prepare for this season. It was doing simulated weekends toward the end of the 2025 season where the team went through the flow of a race weekend as if it was already competing. That will help but that doesn’t mean the team is going to come out like gangbusters. There will be plenty of things it can only learn from having a car on track. 

But let’s be positive. I think Cadillac will avoid double retirements and not have the most in Formula One. 

In 2025, there were only three instances of a team having a double retirement. The first was the team formerly known as Toro Rosso at Silverstone. Ferrari was responsible for the other two (Zandvoort and Interlagos). 

This suggests the window is narrow. You cannot have more than one, but with the new regulations the overall likelihood increases. It could happen to Cadillac, but I think Cadillac will make sure it cars stay on track. 

8. When breaking the schedule into thirds, Liam Lawson will outscore Arvid Lindblad in at least two of those thirds

Lawson ran two races for Red Bull to start the 2025 before being kicked down to the junior team. It was the best thing to happen to Lawson. He scored 38 points from there on. 

Lindblad is the latest child Red Bull has rushed to Formula One. He was sixth in Formula Two and he did win three races (one feature and two sprints). He only turned 18 years old in August. We have more examples of these kids not being Max Verstappen than being Max Verstappen that it is far more likely Lindblad struggles, make mistakes and doesn’t score points regularly. 

Lawson is battle-tested. There could be a period later in the season where Lindblad is on the same level and could be getting better finishes, but I don’t see that happening early. Lawson will need to be responsible for points early, and that could be the case for the entire season.

9. Alexander Albon will have a podium finish but finish behind Carlos Sainz, Jr. in the championship

Albon outscored Sainz, Jr. by nine points in 2025 (73 to 64). However, Sainz, Jr. had two podium finishes while Albon’s best finish was fifth. 

Let’s see the reverse in 2026. Albon will get on the podium but Sainz, Jr. will score more points. It felt like Sainz, Jr. had the better season. Albon had the better start, but once Sainz, Jr. was familiar with the car, it swung. I think Sainz, Jr. will be stronger from the start in 2026. Albon will do well, but Sainz, Jr. will be carrying the Williams flag for majority of the season.

10. There will be an incident between Gabriel Bortoleto and Franco Colapinto

It is a World Cup year. We have a Brazilian and an Argentine on the grid. If there are any two drivers on the grid that could cause an international incident if they got together, these would be the two.

We could see two drivers fighting toward the back of the grid. Colapinto definitely needs results after he failed to score a point. Bortoleto did well as a rookie. Both will want more. Both will be pushing the limit. The two could get together. It would be notable.

11. At least one race will be won from outside a top ten starting position

It goes back to the new regulations. We are going to see teams figuring things out and teams will experience more technical gremlins. An untimely engine change could lead to a grid penalty. A front row start could turn to 12th, but a fast car is a fast car, and there are some circuits where a grid penalty is not insurmountable. 

Max Verstappen won from 14th at Spa-Francorchamps with ease in 2022. We have seen it before. A team could have a setback but run the right strategy to overcome it. It could be Spa-Francorchamps. It could be Monza or Baku. It could be a rain race where it happens and grid penalties don’t even come into play. 

Every race winner in 2025 started on one of the first two rows. We are due for something different, even if only for one race. 

12. There will be one race where Oliver Bearman is the top finishing British driver

I thought Bearman was the best rookie in 2025, and he was putting Haas in a wonderful position. He was fourth in Mexico and sixth in Brazil. Bearman outscored teammate Esteban Ocon by three points. If there is a driver best positioned for a promotion to a top tier team in 2027, Bearman is the guy, and Ferrari could have two open spots.

This prediction is saying a lot because you have Lando Norris at McLaren, George Russell at Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari, and now there is Arvid Lindblad at Red Bull’s B-Team, and Bearman has to finish ahead of all those drivers. 

Could there be a race where Oscar Piastri wins ahead of Max Verstappen and Bearman is a surprise in third, perhaps filling the role of Nico Hülkenberg at Silverstone? Yeah, that could happen. 

What if there is a race where Norris retires, Ferrari is slower than Haas, Russell has an issue on track and is knocked down about five spots from where he should be running, Lindblad is just 17th best on the day, and Bearman is the best Brit in sixth? It doesn’t sound crazy. 

Haas has never had a podium finish in 214 races. It went a decade without a podium finish! It is bound to happen. It feels like Bearman is meant to be the guy. If he does it, he could be the best finishing Brit on the day, a remarkable achievement in its own right considering the competition from his fellow countrymen. 

And that is another set of predictions complete! We are more than halfway done with NASCAR and motorcycle racing already in the bag. We will finish up next week, as we slowly move toward 2026.

2026 NASCAR Predictions

We are into the final fortnight of the year, and while there is not much motorsports going on, this is a time to be excited for what is to come. There are plenty of changes ahead of us, and drivers looking for redemption while others hope to expand on their legacies. We don't know what will happen but anything is possible. We can let our minds carry us away. 

We begin with NASCAR, which has had a lively offseason even though no race has taken place for over six weeks now. Changes are coming to NASCAR at least on the business side and with the race teams, but there could be more changes in terms of championship format. Nothing is settled, but it has been leaning that way for quite some time. 

Enough about the boardroom dealings, we are here to make predictions for the next season regardless of how the championship trophy is decided. Twelve predictions await you.

1. Kyle Larson's average finish in each third of the season will be 15.5 or better

Kyle Larson is not running the Indianapolis 500 this season, but last year, that marked a significant shift in his performance in the NASCAR Cup Series.

In his 12 Cup starts prior to him starting the Indianapolis 500, Larson had an average finish of 9.333. His average finish in the final 24 races was 14.875. That isn't a terrible average, but it was saved with four top five finishes in the final six races. Take the first 19 races after his Indianapolis 500 start, and Larson's average was 16.789. 

His average in the second-third of the 2025 Cup season was 19.25! His average in the final third was 10.5.

That is a wild swing to be basically averaging a ninth-place finish for 12 races then average worse than 19th for 12 races before ending with an average of just worse than tenth for 12 races. 

Larson is a swing-and-miss driver. For all his success, he does have a fair number of bad results. In 2024, he did finish outside the top ten in 17 races with five finishes worse than 30th. In 2023, he had six finishes outside the top fifteen in the first 11 race, and he had nine finishes outside the top 25. In 2022, he opened the season with four finishes of 29th or worse in the first six races and he had seven finishes outside the top 30.

He wins a fair amount, but he strikes outs a ton as well. However, I think we will see a more balanced Larson in 2026. In each third of the season, his average finish will be 15.5 or better. I don't think his results will wildly jump around. There might be a two or three position dip, but it is still respectable results. 

2. A Team Penske driver will not have a race victory following a finish outside the top twenty

Lately, it feels like Penske goes from zero-to-hero in the NASCAR Cup Series. The results are not that good and then suddenly it is on a run of top ten finishes. Last season, each Penske driver won a race after finishing outside the top fifteen the race before. 

Austin Cindric won at Talladega after being 17th at Bristol. Joey Logano won at Texas after being disqualified at Talladega and being classified in 39th. Ryan Blaney won at Nashville after being 38th at Charlotte. Blaney also won at Loudon after being fourth at Bristol, and he won the Phoenix finale after being second at Martinsville.

I don't think we are going to see as big of swings from the Penske groups. It should be noted that Logano was fourth at Phoenix and Cindric was 27th at the Phoenix finale. Keep that in mind for Daytona.

3. Chase Briscoe will have the third-most top five finishes at Joe Gibbs Racing

Briscoe's first season with Joe Gibbs Racing exceeded expectations as he was a championship contender in the final race, and he ended up finishing third in the championship. Briscoe won three times at Pocono, the Southern 500 and Talladega. He also led the team with 15 top five finishes. It was actually tight in this category at Gibbs. Denny Hamlin had 14 top five finishes and Christopher Bell had 13. Ty Gibbs had five, and I must admit I nearly forgot Ty Gibbs was a Cup driver.

In year two at Gibbs, I think Briscoe takes a slight step back, and we see Hamlin and Bell perform a little better, or at least a little better than Briscoe. 

4. Chase Elliott will have at least five finishes outside the top twenty in the first 24 races

There was great praise for Elliott's consistency in 2025. He did not have a finish outside the top twenty in the first 23 races. Guess what happens in 2026? He is going to have at least five finishes worse than 20th in the first two-thirds of the season.

Elliott ended up having four finishes outside the top twenty in the final 12 races. That a brief market correction, but 2026 will be more aligned with the rest of the competition. Larson had six finishes outside the top thirty in the first 24 races last year, and he had a 28th-place finish as well. Hamlin had three finishes outside the top twenty in the first five race, and nine in the first 24. Briscoe had seven finishes outside the top twenty in the first 24 races, and Byron had eight.

Those were your four championship contenders at Phoenix, and those results were dreadful in comparison to Elliott, but let's keep going. Bell had five finishes outside the top twenty in the first two-dozen races last year. Ryan Blaney had seven, and three of those were consecutive between races four and six of the season. Logano had four finishes outside the top twenty before he had his first top ten finish, and he had eight in the first 24 races. 

That is every driver ranked ahead of Elliott in the championship in 2025 plus Tyler Reddick had five finishes worse than 20th, Ross Chastian had seven, Bubba Wallace had 11, Shane van Gisbergen had 14, Alex Bowman had eighth, Austin Cindric had nine, Austin Dillon had 11 and Josh Berry had 14. 

Every other playoff driver in 2025 had at least five finishes worse than 20th in the first two-thirds of the season. Elliott isn't special. He will come back down to earth.

5. Denny Hamlin will have five fastest laps or fewer

Last season was the first time NASCAR awarded a point for the fastest lap in the race. Hamlin had the most fastest laps in the season with nine, which meant nothing once he was in the finale and the standings were reset. The next closest driver had five. 

We haven't really tracked fastest lap information because it never mattered in the first 76 seasons of NASCAR. I don't know what the trends are, but I will wager that Hamlin's fastest lap total drops by nearly half. I don't know what the average is, but if Hamlin had nine and was nearly double the rest of the field, I have a feeling he is more likely going to return to the pack than remain that far ahead.

6. Tyler Reddick will be one of the first six drivers to win a Cup race this season

After going winless in 2025, Reddick gets a victory earlier than most in the Cup Series. He had a few close calls in 2025. Reddick was in the top three in two of the first three races. He hit an extended slump that basically went through the entire spring. I think we see a bounce back.

Consider that anyone can win either of the first two races at Daytona and Atlanta, Reddick is a past winner at Austin, and he has great results at Darlington, those are four of the first six races. He could pick up a win at any of those circuits. He should be competitive at Bristol and Kansas. Watkins Glen is going to be in May. That is majority of the first 12 races where Reddick should have a good shout at victory. 

With how last season went, I think Reddick will be focused to get off the snide early.

7. Trackhouse will win fewer road course races by ten seconds or greater

In 2025, Trackhouse won five road course races, and three of those had a margin of victory greater than ten seconds. All of those were with Shane van Gisbergen, but van Gisbergen will have new competition, and it will be coming from within the organization.

Connor Zilisch has moved up to the Cup Series, and he has already shown good pace in his handful of Cup appearances. In NASCAR's second division, Zilisch held his own against van Gisbergen and defeated him a few times. I don't think it is going to swing to where Zilisch will be the better driver, but nothing lasts forever, especially in NASCAR. Van Gisbergen will still be the favorite at every road course, but he cannot win them all, nor can he win them all in complete beat downs. 

However, I don't think Zilisch is going to waltz in and start winning races by ten-plus seconds. Trackhouse is going to win a few road course races, but I think they will be closer than what we saw in 2025.

8. Connor Zilisch will win more races than Jesse Love

Piggy-backing off the prediction above, I think across all NASCAR series, Zilisch will win more races than Jesse Love. The 2025 Grand National Series champion, Love will remain at that level to defend his title, and he and the rest of the series will have their work cut out for them as a driver who won ten times will no longer be full-time.

I don't think that will change much. Love won twice in 2025, the Daytona season opener and the Phoenix finale. Prior to his victory at Phoenix, he did not have a top five finish in the first six playoff race. He will likely do a little better, but Zilisch will still have the chance to come down and run some races at that level. Plus, I think Zilisch will win at least one road course race in Cup. If we learned anything from last year, he could win two, and we cannot ignore that he was comfortable on ovals. He won at Nashville, Dover, Indianapolis, technical he won at Daytona, and he won at Gateway. That is a wide range of ovals. 

We shouldn't be expecting Zilisch to hold his own against Larson and Hamlin at Darlington, but he could have the speed to win at any of the ovals and it shouldn't be a surprise if he pulls it off. I think it is more likely Zilisch wins three Cup races than Love winning three races at the second division. 

9. A driver running in multiple entries will win a race in NASCAR's second division

This isn't that a driver is going to win a race in two different entries, but a driver who will start races in two different cars will win a race. 

We know JR Motorsports is doing this with two of its drivers. Carson Kvapil was fourth in the championship in 2025, but he will be split over multiple cars in 2026. Originally, the plan was for Kvapil to be part-time in the #1 Chevrolet, but after how his 2025 season ended, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. said he would have a car for Kvapil for the entire season. It is unclear if Kvapil will run mostly in the #1 and then switch to a different car, but nothing was said that Kvapil would be in the car for entire season. 

We do know Rajah Caruth will run 23 races for JR Motorsports in the #88 Chevrolet, but Caruth will also run ten races with Jordan Anderson Racing. 

Kvapil did not win a race in 2025, and Caruth had good results in the Truck Series. One of them could win one race, but it could be someone different. 

The restrictions on NASCAR Cup drivers running in the lower series has been relaxed, and they can now compete in ten races a season in the lower two categories, double from the previously limit of five. We could see Kyle Larson run multiple cars or Chase Elliott or Christopher Bell. They could easily win a race in one entry and then in their next appearance be running in a different car. 

The prediction covers many possibilities.

10. The Burton family will lead more combined laps in the first 20 races than they led in the entire 2025 season

Both Burton family members are going to be back in NASCAR's second division in 2026. Jeb Burton is remaining at Jordan Anderson Racing in the #27 Chevrolet while Harrison Burton is moving to Sam Hunt Racing to drive the #24 Toyota. 

Neither of them are outstanding cars. Harrison Burton drove incredibly well to make the playoffs with AM Racing in 2025. A similar effort will likely be required at Sam Hunt Racing. Jeb Burton is banking on winning at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. 

Why do I think this prediction is going to happen? Because they only led a combined 59 laps in 2025, I need a prediction that is something deeper than "Driver X will win at insert racetrack" and this is something else to watch.

Harrison had 48 laps led, and they were spread out. One lap led at the Daytona opener, five laps at Austin, 12 laps at Darlington in the spring, three laps at Pocono, four laps at Bristol, a lap at Talladega and 16 laps at Martinsville.

Jeb led four laps at the Daytona opener and seven laps at Talladega in the spring.

What this prediction is hoping for is one of these two drivers either ends up leading a good chunk of laps at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta when the field is rather calm, either have a good chunks of laps led during a pit cycle at any oval race because they went off strategy, or Harrison Burton and Sam Hunt Racing can put together a competitive day and maybe be a surprise at Darlington, Bristol, Chicagoland or somewhere else. 

It is only 60 laps, how hard can that be? 

 

11. Kaden Honeycutt will finish in the top three of victories in the Truck Series

Honeycutt takes over the #11 TRICON Toyota with Corey Heim moving... elsewhere. It is a shame we don't know what Heim will be doing in 2026. It does not appear to be anything full-time. Brutal.

But I digress, Honeycutt is moving to a great truck, and he is coming off a strong season where he was doing more with less at Niece Motorsports before being canned while in a playoff position, and then at Halmer Friesen Racing, he was competitive and was good enough to finish in the top four of the championship.

Honeycutt is going to win races. Being in the top three in victories is not that hard in the Truck Series. The driver with the third-most victories has had three victories or fewer in the last six seasons. The Truck Series is still not that competitive. Christian Eckes is returning, and Justin Haley will be leading the Ram program with Kaulig Racing, but it isn't scary deep. 

It feels like 2026 will be between Layne Riggs, Ty Majeski and Honeycutt while Chandler Smith has an outside shot as does Eckes. Honeycutt should be able to win three races.

12. Parker Kligerman will get credited with a top five finish

Technically, Kligerman won two races in 2025, but neither are entered in the record book. Kligerman won the Truck race at Daytona, but he was disqualified after failing post-race inspection. Then in the summer, Kligerman replaced Connor Zilisch, who was nursing a broken collarbone, mid-race at Daytona, and Kligerman went on to cross the finish line in first.

But neither counted. In eight Truck starts, Kligerman's best finish was 14th on three occasions. 

We don't know if Kligerman will be doing anything in 2026. There has been no word on Henderson Motorsports continuing after the passing of owner Charlie Henderson last year. I hope Kligerman has something lined up for a few races, and gets at least a top five finish.

One set of predictions are complete. Another set will come tomorrow as we are into our festive period and looking ahead to the rapidly approaching New Year.

2025 IndyCar Predictions

We have made it to the final day of 2024. The year is over. Whether it was a good year or a bad year has already been decided and cannot really be changed. We had 366 days this year. Day 366 is not going to be the difference. With that said, it is our final chance to look ahead to 2025 before we get into 2025. Four sets of predictions are complete. We end with IndyCar, as the series is about to enter a new dynamic and television partnership.

1. Will Power has at least two pole positions and on multiple track disciplines

For the first time since 2005, we had an IndyCar season where Will Power did not win a pole position. It was not for a lack of trying. Power started second in four races and he started inside the top five in 11 of 17 races. He started in every position in the top five except first. Power will enter 2025 on a 22-race pole position drought. 

At some point in 2025, that drought will end. In 19 full seasons of IndyCar competition, Power has won at least two pole positions 14 times. He has won at least four pole positions in ten seasons. Power will get back on track and he will also do it on multiple track disciplines. 

Five of his six most recent pole positions have been on ovals, and four of those have been at Iowa. He has not won pole position for a street course race since the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg. Some of these trends will change. Power could win on all three disciplines. He will win on at least two in 2025.

2. Josef Newgarden will not have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

Since August 2023, Newgarden has not been able to completely escape a funk. Entering the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course that season, Newgarden was second in the championship, 84 points behind Álex Palou with four races remaining in the season. Then he got caught in an opening lap incident with Marcus Armstrong, got trapped a lap down and finished 25th, and Newgarden hasn't been the same since. 

In the following race, Newgarden hit the wall in Gateway and finished 25th. At Laguna Seca, he was caught in an opening lap incident and trudged along to finish 21st. 

The bad run of form could not be shaken in 2024. Along with the disqualification at St. Petersburg that classified him in 26th, Newgarden had five races where he finished outside the top twenty. At the Milwaukee doubleheader, he spun out while running second and battling Marcus Ericsson, and in the second race Newgarden was hit from behind at the waved off start, ending his race before it really began. 

In the last 21 races, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty in eight of them, and on three occasions has he had consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. In his first 111 races with Team Penske, he had only finished outside the top twenty in four races. He finished inside the top twenty in his first 65 races with the team. 

Newgarden famously (or infamously?) used the offseason prior to 2024 to refocus on driving to achieve better results. That didn't work, but he will have another chance to correct course before 2025. Some results a driver cannot control. You cannot control if you will be run over at the start of a race or if an engineer has entered the wrong code for the push-to-pass system, but Newgarden will avoid the ruts has been falling in for the better part of the last season-and-a-half. He will get back to more of who he was from 2017 through 2022.

3. Álex Palou will have consecutive finishes outside the top 20

While Newgarden has been going through a rough spell, Álex Palou has won the championship the last two seasons and has been almost untouchable during that time. 

In 2023, he did not finish worse than eighth and he won five times with ten podium finishes. In 2024, he only won twice times and only had seven podium finishes, but he had 13 top five results. No one has kept up with Palou's consistency and that has been the key to his last two championships.

We did see Palou look human in 2024. He got trapped when Newgarden spun at Detroit and that cost him a good result, relegating him to 16th. Palou spun on his own at Iowa and finished 23rd. The car had a battery issue on the pace laps for the second Milwaukee race and Palou salvaged a 19th-place finish. With Will Power caught many laps down after his seatbelt issue in Nashville, Palou did not push it and could settle with an 11th-place finish to clinch the title. 

With those last two results, Palou will enter 2025 with consecutive results outside the top ten for the first time since August 2021. For a man who has a knack for making history, he is going to make more in 2025.

How many times has Palou finished outside the top twenty in consecutive races in his IndyCar career?

The answer is zero! It has never happened. Despite finishing 23rd on debut, Palou had never had consecutive races where he was in the bottom-third of the field whether that because of his own mistake, lack of speed or mechanical gremlins. In his first 81 starts, Palou has finished outside the top twenty in six races. Three of those came in his rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing. 

Palou is going to remain consistent and quick. He will win multiple races and he will be in the discussion, if not leading the discussion, for the championship into the final race, but if Josef Newgarden can fall into a rut and Scott Dixon, who had three finishes outside the top twenty in 2024, can fall into a rut, Palou can fall into a rut as well. It might not be for long, but any time in a rut is long enough. 

We are due for Palou having a few hands go against him and having some extra work to control the championship.

4. Colton Herta will end the year with enough FIA Super License points

Aren't you tired hearing about Colton Herta and Super License points? I am!

For nearly four years now, the biggest topic of conversation around Herta has been his lack of Super License points and it preventing him from getting a shot at Formula One, whether that be with the Andretti-led Cadillac program or with possibly Red Bull's junior team. Herta has ben a few short the entire time, and the only way to get Super License points is through results. Results were not Herta's strong point there for a few seasons.

While he was third and fifth in the 2020 and 2021 IndyCar seasons, Herta followed that with a pair of tenth-place championship finishes. Only the top ten IndyCar championship finishers earn Super License points, and tenth only pays a point. A driver needs a combined 40 points over the previous three seasons to qualify for a Super License. A combined two points over two seasons will not get you there. 

The good news for Herta is he woke up in 2024 and finished second in the championship, earning him 30 points. He will be dropping a point for his tenth in the 2022 season, but that leaves him with 31 points, needing only nine to qualify for a Super License. The problem is the points become hard to get very quickly. 

While the champion gets 40 and second gets 30. If you finish fourth, you only get ten. If you finish fifth, you only get eight. Herta could be fifth in the championship and be a point short of a Super License. What could work in Herta's favor is a driver can earn a single Super License point if he completed at least 100km in a Formula One free practice session during a grand prix weekend, and a driver can earn up to ten points through free practice.

Theoretically, Herta could finish fifth in the championship and then run a free practice at Austin with a team and that will get him to the 40-point threshold. 

I think Herta will finish inside the top four in the championship and not need the practice session. He is coming off his best season in IndyCar and Andretti Global is a more-focused organization. Herta was successful on all circuit disciplines. He picked up his first oval victory of his career. He can finish in the top four of the championship and not need to do backflips to secure Super License qualification. 

5. Scott Dixon will win a race from pole position

We are accustomed to Dixon winning races. He has won at least one race in 20 consecutive seasons. He is second all-time in victories with 58. Last season was the 18th time in Dixon's career where he won multiple races in a season. Winning is an expectation for Dixon every season.

What we should not expect from Dixon is pole positions. 

The New Zealander has gone two consecutive seasons without a pole position, and he has not won a pole position in five of the last seven seasons. Only twice has he won a pole position over the last 115 races. In that same time frame, Dixon has won 17 races. Only Josef Newgarden has won more in that timeframe. For a man who commonly finishes first, it is uncommon to see Dixon start first. 

Life is a number's game, and with someone has talent as Dixon, he will eventually win another pole position. It will click on setup and timing and Dixon will nail a lap to put him on top, but this prediction goes a step further. Not only will Dixon win a pole position, but he will turn that into a race victory.

Dixon has not won a race from pole position since Watkins Glen in 2016. To give you an idea how long ago that was, Dixon hit the 40-victory milestone with that result. He has won 18 times since! Of those 18 victories since he last won from pole position, Dixon has won from outside the top ten in four races and he has won from outside a top five starting spot ten times in that span!

It has been eight years. We are due for Dixon to qualify first at a race and then make it look easy over a two-hour drive. 

6. There will be a first-time winner with at least 50 career starts

Fifty starts is a good indicator of what a driver's career will look like. In contemporary IndyCar, three full seasons get you 51 starts. That is a good point where we find out how the rest of the grid views you. Are you seen as someone that a team must have or will you be someone who will always need funding to get on the grid? 

When it comes to winning, 50 starts is a pivotal point in time. Of the 299 recognized race winners in IndyCar history, only 28 drivers took 50 starts or more to get their first career victory. Of those 28 drivers, nine of them only won once in their careers. Only six of those drivers won more than five races in their career, and only two of them won at least ten races. Five of those 28 drivers won a championship. 

The 50 career start milestone is a pretty good barometer for what affect a driver will have on IndyCar. 

It has been a while though since we had a truly veteran driver score a first career victory. The most recent first-time winner with over 50 career starts was Josef Newgarden at Barber Motorsports Park in 2015. There was a period where we saw these type of first-time winners with greater regularity. Much of that had to do with The Split, but for us to be going on nine years without a first-time winner with at least 50 starts is a bit of a surprise. Like many predictions for 2025, we are due. 

Who could fulfill this prediction? 

Of the announced drivers for the 2025 season, the driver with the most starts without a victory is Conor Daly. Daly has made 115 starts and he has yet to win a race. He is set to become the driver with the third-most starts before a first career victory and he could be the driver with the most starts before a first victory if he does not win one of the first 14 races. 

Daly has shown good form on ovals, but he will be with Juncos Hollinger Racing. While Daly and JHR did combine for a runner-up result in Milwaukee, they will have some work to do to beat the entire IndyCar field.

Jack Harvey only has the Indianapolis 500 confirmed with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Harvey has 93 starts so he fits the criteria.

Santino Ferrucci has 77 career starts and no victories. Ferrucci has been in the picture late in the Indianapolis 500 the last few years, and like Daly, Ferrucci has had strong runs on ovals. From what we saw in 2024, it would not be all that surprising if Ferrucci were to win at Iowa or Milwaukee. He is the only driver to have six top ten finishes in his first six Indianapolis 500 starts. The Speedway isn't out of the question either. 

The only other driver with more than 50 starts but no victories that is somewhat in consideration is Romain Grosjean. Grosjean does not have a seat for 2025 at the moment, but he has made 64 starts. Dale Coyne Racing is the only team with open seats. Grosjean nearly won multiple races with Coyne in 2021. He arguably should have won once that year. If a reunion is in order, maybe we see a breakthrough. 

Those are the four drivers who would automatically fulfill the prediction. There are a few drivers just short of 50 starts that could do it but they cannot win too soon in 2025.

David Malukas has 44 starts and no victories to his name. Callum Ilott could not win until the 12th race, the second Iowa race, to qualify for this prediction. Devlin DeFrancesco and Sting Ray Robb could not win until the penultimate race at Milwaukee.

If we are being honest with ourselves, this prediction is saying one of Daly, Ferrucci, Malukas or Grosjean, if he gets a ride, will win in 2025. 

7. There will not be consecutive races where the opening lap is under caution

This wasn't really noted during the 2024 IndyCar season, but on reflection it was surprising to notice. A lot of races didn't make it through lap one this past season.

There were seven races in 2024 that had an opening lap incident. Then there was Long Beach, which saw the first lap take place under caution, and Mid-Ohio, which started under caution due to Scott Dixon's car stopping on the final pace laps. Nine races in 2024 did not see the first lap completed under green flag conditions.

There was a three-race stretch that covered the Indianapolis 500, Detroit and Road America where there was an opening lap incident. Mid-Ohio and the first Iowa race saw another pair of consecutive races without a first lap completed under green flag conditions.

One, I think IndyCar will see a correction and we will not have as many races with opening lap incidents as we did in 2024. Two, if this does happen, I don't think they will be in consecutive races. It might be alternating races, like we saw from the first Iowa race through the second Milwaukee race, but it will not be as common in 2025 to the point we have are expecting the first lap incident. 

8. Marcus Ericsson will finish in the top nine of oval points

Ericsson's first season with Andretti Global was likely not as strong as he hoped for. Not all of that was his own making. There were some growing pains, and that set Ericsson back after having finished sixth in the championship for three consecutive seasons. He dropped down to 15th, his worst championship finish since he was 17th in his rookie season in 2019.

Part of the problem were Ericsson's oval results. In seven oval races, Ericsson finished outside the top twenty in five of them. He was caught in the opening lap accident of the Indianapolis 500 when Tom Blomqvist spun. An air gun problem set him back in the second Iowa race and trapped him two laps down. He had engine issues at Gateway. There was the aforementioned accident with Newgarden in Milwaukee. His season ended when he brushed the barrier with about 70 laps remaining in Nashville. 

With that combination of results, Ericsson was 21st in oval points with only 81 points to his name. In the previous two seasons, Ericsson finished second in oval points and sixth in oval points with 224 points and 143 points respectively.

I don't think Ericsson will hit whammies like he was in 2024 on ovals again in 2025. We know what he can do. At his best, he should finish in the top third of drivers on ovals. He should get back to that status in the new season.

9. The Thermal Club race will have at least 150 total passes

IndyCar's first visit to The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California did not receive much fanfare. For starters, there weren't that many fans to begin with, but the non-championship race with a prize that was only half of what was promoted was met with disdain almost immediately and throughout the entire weekend. In 2025, Thermal Club will host a proper championship race.

Passing was a concern with the non-championship round and we saw two rather lackluster heat races, the second of which registered no passes for position. The final race was not much better, but the first half of the race saw some drivers laying back in hopes of making a rush forward in the final ten laps on less-worn tires.

That strategy did provide for a lively second-half, as Colton Hera drove up to fourth. 

Between the three parts and 38 laps of the non-championship round there were only 39 total passes, not brilliant, but we did see high-tire wear over a course of a stint, and that could play well for a full race around Thermal like we will see in 2025. 

It might not be a spectacular race, but Thermal could be more competitive than everyone expects. It might not change the perception of the race, but it could still be something respectable.

In the six IndyCar races held on permanent road courses in 2024, the average number of total passes in those races was 276 with a median of 279.5. Only one race featured fewer than 150 passes. Mid-Ohio had 116. 

There are still concerns about the Thermal layout and what kind of racing it allows, but if the tire wear remains high and you combined it with a race distance between 200 and 215 miles, which adds fuel strategy, we are not going to see a complete procession for two hours. 

10. Among the 11 full-time teams, Prema will finish at least eighth in total top ten finishes

Prema is entering IndyCar and increasing the number of full-time organizations in the series to 11. For its debut lineup, Prema is bringing a mix of experience and the unknown. Callum Ilott, a veteran of 38 IndyCar starts, will lead the team, while Robert Shwartzman, a Formula Three champion, Formula Two vice-champion and FIA World Endurance Championship race winner, will be a new addition to the series. 

At time of writing, Prema has yet to participate in a test as an IndyCar team. We do not know where Prema falls among the existing teams. Ilott has been a good driver in IndyCar, usually running in mid-pack equipment. Shwartzman was a promising prospect and was a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy. 

Last year in IndyCar, ten teams scored at least one top ten finish. Only one of those teams was a part-timer (Dreyer & Reinbold Racing at Indianapolis). Dale Coyne Racing was the only full-time team without a top ten finish. 

Finishing eighth out of 11 full-time teams does not sound like accomplishing much, but every IndyCar team is capable of getting good results on a given day. While five teams exceeded ten top ten finishes during the 2024 season, the other four full-time teams finished with either nine top ten finishes or eight top ten finishes. 

If Prema can enter IndyCar and score eight or nine top ten finishes, I think that must be considered a good year, especially since it would likely not finish last among teams in total top ten finishes. If Prema were to break ten top ten finishes in a season, it would put the organization in the top half of the grid. 

There will likely be a few tough outings, but Prema has the drivers to put together some respectable days. Ilott was getting top five finishes at Juncos Hollinger Racing. Shwartzman will be learning, but we have seen Christian Lundgaard enter and become a contender early. Marcus Armstrong, a past teammate of Shwartzman's, has been quick and scored good results. If it clicks, Shwartzman could pull out some impressive results. 

Looking at the rest of the grid and knowing the struggles teams have had, I think Prema can score more top ten finishes than Coyne, Juncos Hollinger Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing. It could even edge out Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. 

11. There will be a change to the IndyCar practice structure

This is factoring in the new television contract with Fox, which says all practice sessions will be broadcasted on FS1 or FS2. This is a big change for IndyCar, as previously no practice sessions were on cable television. Every session was available on Peacock, and the openness of streaming allowed IndyCar practice to be IndyCar practice without the broadcaster dictating how the session was run.

IndyCar practice could be 45 minutes with a 20-minute delay in the middle due to a red flag. Peacock was not beholden to a time window. If there was a 30-minute delay during the session, Peacock could show all 75 minutes. If IndyCar wanted to try a new practice structure, like it did in 2024, where every car will get 45 minutes of practice time but it took place over a 70-minute window, that works for Peacock. 

With FS1 or FS2, those cable channels have timeslots. Something will be following an IndyCar practice session. If it is one of FS1's many talk shows, FS1 isn't going to hang with IndyCar for an extra ten or 15 minutes for practice. Television windows are not accommodating to 75-minute sessions. It is also less likely IndyCar will be given 90 minutes for practice. Anything within 60 minutes is good.

I expect in the weeks leading up to St. Petersburg an announcement about practice changing, even if only minor, to every session being a 45-minute session and it will be an all-skate, which will clutter the racetrack and annoy some teams, but this is what is necessary with this new television deal. 

I would also not be surprised if qualifying is tweaked for road and street courses because road and street course qualifying has usually taken about 70-75 minutes to complete without any issues. IndyCar might get a 90-minute television window for qualifying, but I also believe Fox will likely want that in a tidy 60-minute window, especially if it is leading into a baseball game on a Saturday. 

Be prepared for changes.

12. At least one race outside the Indianapolis 500 will have a car fail to qualify

With the introduction of the charter system to IndyCar, there will be a cap on number of starters at every race on the 2025 calendar. 

The 25 charter entries will all be guaranteed a spot in every race outside of the Indianapolis 500. Every race besides the Indianapolis 500 will be limited to 27 starters. With 27 full-time entries anticipated, every race is at full capacity before we even get into the season. If any team wishes to field an additional entry or if a new team looks to run an IndyCar race, the non-chartered entries will all compete for those final two spots.

Prema's two entries are currently the only non-chartered teams entering the races outside the Indianapolis 500. As long as no one else shows up, Prema will be safe. If one additional entries appears then Prema will be at risk of an entry missing a race.

Last season saw one race feature 28 starters besides the Indianapolis 500. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entered a fourth car at Portland. 

As much as everyone believes that no team will field an additional car outside of Indianapolis, if there is enough money and interest, an additional entry can form for a race. I don't think the big teams will do it, but I believe at one race and additional entry will form and there will be a case of 28 cars with 27 available starts.

This is IndyCar after all. There is bound to be one weekend where everyone will feel uncomfortable about a car missing the Gateway race or Laguna Seca race.

And that is it for 2024! Feel free to check out any of the other four predictions done for Formula One, NASCAR, sports car racing and motorcycle racing. We will be back to normal at the start of 2025 as we begin our preview period before series begin competition.

2025 Motorcycle Predictions

We are into the final days of 2024, the final two to be more specific. Is this the final week of 2024 or the first week of 2025? Whose week begins on Wednesday? Let's consider this a transition period. One year is over even if there is time remaining on the clock. One year has yet to begin even if we have not changed our calendars. Everything will start to be serious next week. All the holidays will be behind us and all we will have is the slog of winter ahead. 

Don't worry! We have something to fill this uncertain time. Motorcycle predictions! From a variety of championships on a variety of surfaces. We will cover the globe in these 12 predictions, and some are timely with the start of the Supercross season less than two weeks away.

MotoGP

1. Marc Márquez will reach 100 career pole positions

Moving to Ducati provided the career renaissance we all expected for Márquez. On a year-old Ducati at Gresini, Márquez was back to winning races and gave Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martín a hassle despite both those riders being on the new Desmosedici GP24. 

For 2025, Márquez will be a factory Ducati rider and on a level playing field with Bagnaia. Many think this will be another leap forward for Márquez and it makes him a championship threat. That is sound thinking. Not only will he be after a title, but a number of milestones as well. 

Márquez already holds the record for most pole positions in grand prix motorcycle racing with 94, 25 ahead of the next closest rider. Six pole positions would make him the first to reach 100 in a career. On the year-old Ducati, Márquez had two pole positions. The new Ducati should bring him to a higher level and hitting six pole positions should not be difficult. 

2. The "sprint champion" will score fewer than 150 points

MotoGP has had sprint races for two seasons and in each of those two years Jorge Martín has scored the most points from sprint races. In 2023, Martín scored 168 points in sprint races, and in 2024 he scored 171 points. The 2024 results decided the championship. Martín outscored Francesco Bagnaia by 43 points in sprint races, overcoming the 33 point deficit between Martín and Bagnaia from grand prix races.

With Martín moving to Aprilia, it feels unlikely he will be able to match his sprint results achieved on the Pramac Racing Ducati. It opens the door for everyone else to make up ground in sprint races, but I do not think we will see someone win seven sprint races and finish on the sprint podium in 16 races. 

A few riders will score more sprint points, but not necessarily score significantly more. Martín's total will come down as well. I think sprint results will be a little more balance, which means it could still be crucial to the final championship result.

3. On at least one occasion will there be three consecutive races with three different manufacturers victorious

Last year saw two manufacturers win in MotoGP.

Ducati - 19

Aprilia - 1

Maverick Viñales won the third race of the season in Austin and that was the only non-Ducati victory the entire season.

Ducati will remain strong and the manufacturer to beat, but too much has changed to think Ducati will remain as dominant as it was. 

Jorge Martín has moved to Aprilia. No offense to Franco Morbidelli, Fermín Aldeguer and Álex Márquez, but I do not think those three can do what Marc Márquez accomplished on a year-old bike even if it is a year-old Ducati. KTM has a hungry Pedro Acosta looking for a victory while having a steady hand in Brad Binder, and it has added Viñales and Enea Bastianini at the Tech3 operation. 

I don't think we can believe in Yamaha and Honda just yet, but I think we could see a period where a Ducati, a Aprilia and a KTM each win over a three-race stretch. 

4. The difference between the top two riders on Japanese bikes will be less than 50 points

Speaking of the Japanese manufacturers, oof, I don't think it will be great in 2025. It might get better. It could not get much worse, but I do not think we are going to see a Honda or a Yamaha win in clear conditions. Fabio Quartararo or Jack Miller could work some magic in the wet, but I am not holding my breath on any of those eight riders being contenders for victories.

The best rider from a Japanese manufacturer in 2024 was Quartararo, 13th in the championship on 113 points. The next closest rider from a Japanese manufacturer was Johann Zarco in 17th on 55 points. That is a difference of 58 points.

Making up eight points is not much, but nothing has proved to be easy for these two manufacturers in the last few seasons. It feels like Yamaha will be better of the two, and Miller should bring a fight to Quartararo.

5. David Alonso's longest winning streak is not greater than four races

After winning 14 races in the 2024 Moto3 season on his way to a championship, Alonso's next act will come in Moto2. Remaining with the CFMoto Aspar Team, Alonso joins a pretty competitive championship. It will not be as easy as last year, a season where he ended with seven consecutive victories. 

I do not expect records to fall again. The most victories in the 2024 Moto2 season was four. No rider has ever won five consecutive races in the Moto2 era. No rider has won at least five consecutive races in the middle category of grand prix racing since Marco Melandri won six consecutive 250cc races in 2002. 

Alonso will do well, he might even win the championship, but I am not expecting him to continue his record-shattering tear. If he does, well, then we might be watching something special.

6. Moto3 will be the closest championship margin among the top three classes

After being the greatest championship margin in 2024, Moto3 will be the reverse in 2025 and be the closest.

Alonso won the Moto3 title by 165 points over Daniel Holgado. That same margin covered Holgado in second and Tatsuki Suzuki in 14th. Forty points decided the Moto2 title and ten points decided the MotoGP title. 

With Alonso leaving, a vacuum is created in Moto3, and I am not sure one rider will sweep in and be close to doing a fraction of what Alonso accomplished. Those 421 points the Colombian scored will have to go to someone, but I don't think any one rider will take on the bulkhead of that total. I expected greater distribution over the entire field, and what could end up being a tighter championship fight while Moto2 and MotoGP could see one rider pull away a little more.

World Superbike

7. Toprak Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds than he will in the first eight rounds

After a sensational season in 2024, Razgatlioglu will have a tough act to follow. Though he missed two rounds after suffering an injury in practice at Magny-Cours, and racing the final portion of the season banged up, topping 18 victories, 13 of which were consecutive, is no easy task. The Turkish rider will remain as the one to beat in World Superbike. 

Along with 18 victories, Razgatlioglu stood on the podium 27 times in 30 starts. Of those 27 podium finishes, ten were runner-up results and two were third-place finishes. Those third place finishes were in the first SuperPole race of the season at Phillip Island and in the second full race of the Barcelona weekend, the sixth race of the season. After that, he never finished third again in 2024.

For 2025, we will see an inverse. Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds, 12 races, than he will have in the first eight rounds, 24 races. I am not sure why, but things change. You cannot always finish first or second.

8. At least two rounds will feature three different winners

There have been six World Superbike seasons with the current three-race weekend format, two full races with a SuperPole race in-between. In those six seasons, there have been seven race weekends where three different riders won. It did not happen in 2019 or 2022, but it happened three times in 2020, twice in 2021 and then once in each of the last two seasons. 

Razgatlioglu will be hard to beat, but there are enough good riders that we could see two weekends where two other riders come out on top. Razgatlioglu could win the first race and then Danilo Petrucci could win the SuperPole race with Álvaro Bautista winning race two of the weekend. Maybe Razgatlioglu and BMW teammate Michael van der Mark split a weekend and Bautista wins the SuperPole race in the middle. There could be a wet SuperPole race and Jonathan Rea could take an unexpected victory while afterward in a dry race two, Razgatlioglu wins with Nicolò Bulega having already won the day before. 

It doesn't happen often, but I think we are due for two weekends in 2025 where there are no repeat winners.

9. None of the top five riders in the championship miss a race

We know Razgatlioglu missed two full rounds after his practice accident at Magny-Cours, but Álvaro Bautista also missed the second full race from Magny-Cours after a SuperPole race accident. Alex Lowes missed the second full race from Aragón after a SuperPole accident. Danilo Petrucci missed the entire Assen round. 

The only rider in the top five of the championship to start every race was vice-champion Nicolò Bulega. 

We are going to see better health and fortune for the top riders in 2025. All five of the top five in the final championship will start every race. There will be no wondering "what if" or thinking a rider could be a spot or two higher if a round wasn't missed. There will be full participation and no doubt about what has occurred. 

Supercross/Motocross

10. At least one Supercross podium will feature three riders that do not finish in the top three of the championship

Supercross has only gotten deeper looking to 2025. The 2024 season had six different winners from five different manufacturers. The field has only gotten tougher this season. 

In 2024, at least one of the eventual top three championship finishers were on the podium in every race. In seven of 17 rounds, only one of the eventual championship top three were on the podium. In 2023, every race had at least one of the championship top three on the podium and in five races was only one of the podium finishers a top three championship finisher.

With the quality of the field, I believe there will be one night where the top three finishers will not end up being the championship top three when the season ends at Salt Lake City in May. 

11. Jorge Prado will be the top finishing European rider in the Supercross championship

One of the reasons why it has become much more competitive for the 2025 Supercross season is the introduction of the two-time World Motocross championship Jorge Prado. The Spaniard won the World Championship the last two years, and come January 5, the 24-year-old will compete full-time in the AMA Supercross season.

Switching to Kawasaki, Prado made his Supercross debut last year when he ran the first four rounds with Gas Gas. He had promising moments, but he was learning the law of the land in Supercross. He was seventh in his second start at San Francisco and he won a heat race that weekend. 

Prado might not dominate the championship, but he will be competitive and he will not be an afterthought. There will be a few races where he will be a key player, and I think he will win a race. Jason Anderson was the top Kawasaki rider in the championship last season. Winless, Anderson was fifth in the championship with four podium finishes and 11 top five results.

Based on his ability and as long as he remains healthy, Prado should be the top European rider in the championship. His main competition will be Ken Roczen and Dylan Ferrandis. Ferrandis is on a customer Honda. The Frenchman can get good results but he is not going to be competing for race victories. Roczen can win races and he can finish on the podium, but the German's issue is he is bound to have a few off nights and he struggles to stay healthy. 

Based on points per start, Roczen was on track for 270.78 points and Ferrandis was on pace for 208.25 points. That would have placed those two in sixth and ninth in the championship respectively, an improvement of one spot and three spots from their actual championship finishes. 

I think Prado can finish in the top five of the championship, not necessarily win it but match Anderson's output and take fifth, possibly be a little bit better and take fourth. 

12. Neither Jett Lawrence nor Haiden Deegan will win SuperMotocross World Championships

In two seasons of the SuperMotocross World Championship, there have been two riders to win the championships in each category. Jett Lawrence and Haiden Deegan. Lawrence has won both 450cc titles. Deegan has claimed both 250cc titles.

That will not continue in 2025. Nothing lasts forever, and frankly we are a little lucky to have Lawrence and Deegan each win twice in two years. In 2023, Deegan had to win the final round from Los Angeles to take the 250cc title from Jo Shimoda. In that same year, Chase Sexton went down in the final race while leading to gift Lawrence the 450cc title. In 2024, Jett Lawrence finished tied with his brother Hunter for the 450cc title only to take the title on tiebreaker.

Both Lawrence and Deegan are excellent riders, but there is other top talent out there, and with the nature of the SuperMotocross championship being three rounds, the door is open for someone else to sneak through and claim the crown. That happens in both categories in 2025.

Four down, one to go! If you missed the Formula One predictions, NASCAR predictions or sports car predictions, feel free to check those out. We end the year as we normally do with IndyCar predictions.

2025 Sports Car Predictions

We will end this week looking into the sports car world as we have 2025 coming more into focus with each passing second. For the sports car world, competition comes quickly after the calendar flips. It does not take look for us to get into big endurance races from all across the globe. There always seems to be something new in sports car racing, and that will be the case again with the introduction of the Aston Martin Valkyrie program. Aston Martin aside, there are plenty of things to watch across a variety of categories.

FIA World Endurance Championships

1. The pole-sitter will be classified in at least seven of eight races

The fastest qualifier is usually a good car. It might not win all the time, but it is good. It is expected to be competitive. You are more likely to win from pole position than from last place, even in WEC's Hypercar class, which does not feature the greatest number of entries.

However, in 2024, the pole-sitter failed to finish in three of eight WEC races. Because WEC isn't the longest season, three retirements is quite a lot. I think there will be a correction in 2025. We are not going to see the pole-sitter fail to be running as often as we did this past season. 

I will leave the door open that in at least one race the pole-sitter falls out of a race, but not more than that.

2. At least two manufacturers that did not win in LMGT3 in 2024 do win in 2025

The first year with GT3 cars in WEC was rather successful. Four manufacturers were victorious. It should be noted that rather coincidentally that all four winners were past participants in WEC's GTE class. Not sure if there is any correlation but it is a note. 

While four manufacturers won, five did not. Lamborghini, McLaren, Chevrolet, Ford and Lexus all went winless. Lamborghini will not be back, but Mercedes-AMG enters the championship in its place. Those five other manufacturers combined for five podium finishes. Only one of those was a runner-up result. 

At least two new manufacturers win in 2025. TF Sport's Corvettes went second and third in the Bahrain finale. Mercedes-AMG has yet to find a GT3 series it does not win in. Lexus should be competitive. McLaren will have a good shot at a win. Things will change this season.

3. Each Cadillac entry will get a podium finish

In its final season with Chip Ganassi Racing running the program, Cadillac’s best finish was a fourth in Austin. With Team Jota taking over, Cadillac will have two entries in the world championship. The #12 Cadillac V-Series.R will have Sébastien Bourdais, Alex Lynn and Jenson Button behind the wheel. Earl Bamber, Norman Nato and Will Stevens will drive the #38 Cadillac.

Team Jota won at Spa-Francorchamps with the Porsche 963, and the #12 entry was the sixth-best in the championship. 

Cadillac had a good 2023 season in WEC. Its one entry was fifth in the championship. Last year, Cadillac scored 42 points over the eight races, though it won pole position in Fuji. In IMSA, Cadillac has been able to win endurance races and a championship. That success has not translated to WEC yet.

It might not be a championship, but Cadillac should be a little more competitive and it will have two capable entries to get results. Both will shine at times in 2025.

4. There will be at least two overall winners with a driver winning in his home country

Last year, no WEC race featured a victorious native-son overall. The previous two seasons had seen home country winners. Both of those were at Fuji with Ryō Hirakawa in 2022 and Kamui Kobayashi in 2023. Fun fact, the last three home country winners have not been European. Gustavo Menezes won with Rebellion Racing at Austin in 2020. The last European driver to win a race at home was Mike Conway with Toyota in the season opener for the 2019-20 super season at Silverstone. 

While there are eight races on the 2025 WEC calendar, only four will likely feature a natives in the Hypercar class. We are not going to see a Qatari nor a Bahraini. There is a good chance there will not be an American nor a Brazilian either. I like the chances at the other four races.

One, Toyota is going to be competitive at Fuji. Ferrari is a good option to win at Imola. Porsche has two French drivers, one in each of its entries and Porsche has this things with winning at Le Mans. That is also without taking into consideration the two French drivers at Cadillac, four French drivers at Alpine and at least one with possibly more French drivers at Peugeot. Of the 18 full-time Hypercar entries, at least seven will have a French driver. The Vanthoor brothers represent Belgium in the top class and it just so happens there is a race at Spa-Francorchamps.

We had no home winners in 2024. We will see at least two in 2025.

IMSA

5. The overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races at some point

Entering 2025, IMSA has not had a winner from pole position in GTP in 12 consecutive races. The most recent victory was with Meyer Shank Racing at Mosport in 2023. Earlier in 2023 was the most recent time IMSA saw consecutive races won from pole position. That was with Meyer Shank Racing with its illegal tire pressures at Daytona and then with Whelen Racing at Sebring. 

A year after no winners from pole position, IMSA will have one occasions where the overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races.

6. At least three LMP2 races feature a class winner with a Formula One-experienced driver

The LMP2 class will feature a stout collection of drivers in 2025. With a few driver changes and manufacturer alliances changing in the GTP class, LMP2 is much stronger on the professional front, especially with drivers with Formula One experience.

Sébastien Bourdais moves to LMP2 with the Cadillac program leaving Chip Ganassi Racing for Wayne Taylor Racing. Bourdais will be with Tower Motorsports. Pietro Fittipaldi is driving for Pratt Miller Motorsports as the PMM joins LMP2. Fittipaldi made two Formula One starts in 2020. Paul di Resta will be back with United Autosports. Felipe Massa will be back for the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports.

LMP2 will be a sneaky good class and we will see top drivers lead teams to victories. There will be a spell where we see those with history on the grand prix grid.

7. The top three in the GTD Pro Endurance Cup championship will all be full-time entries

In 2024, the top three entries in GTD Pro in the Endurance Cup were the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW (43 points), the #62 Risi Competizione Ferrari (41 points) and the #19 Iron Lynx Lamborghini (39 points). Risi and Iron Lynx were Endurance Cup-only teams. Risi won the 24 Hours of Daytona and Iron Lynx won at Petit Le Mans.

In 2025, GTD Pro will see the top three in the Endurance Cup all be full-time entries, not a complete reverse from this past season, but a big change nonetheless. There are plenty of capable full-time teams in GTD Pro. They will be tough to beat in the endurance races. The endurance-only teams will hold their own, but they will not be as strong as they were in 2024.

8. Renger van der Zande's winning streak ends at eight consecutive seasons

Perhaps this should not be as big of a surprise, but van der Zande has won an IMSA race overall in eight consecutive seasons. He has also won in 11 consecutive seasons after winning in the Prototype Challenge for three consecutive years. 

As harsh as its sounds, I think van der Zande comes up short in 2025. After seven seasons with Cadillac, van der Zande moves to Acura with Meyer Shank Racing. We know MSR is a capable team and it knows the Acura ARX-06, but this is MSR returning after a year away and it is now a two-car team. The #93 Acura, van der Zande's car, is effectively the new team. Nick Yelloly joins from BMW to round out the program.

This does not feel as strong of an entry as we have seen van der Zande in over the last few seasons. It will be tough for it to be the top Acura let alone the best GTP car period. GTP is a tough class, and we just saw the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac go winless in 2024 with Pipo Derani and Jack Aitken. If Derani can go winless in a season, van der Zande can go winless in a season. 

All good things must come to an end, and I think we will see something not seen since 2016.

European Le Mans Series

9. At least two different Americans win a race

American drivers combined to win zero races in ELMS last season. For 2025, there are already six Americans confirmed for ELMS participation. 

In LMP2, Logan Sargeant will be with IDEC Sport. Rodrigo Sales and P.J. Hyett will each be in pro-am LMP2 entries with TDS Racing and AO by TF respectively. Wyatt Brichacek is going to be in LMP3 with DKR Engineering. Gustavo Menezes will return to full-time competition with an Iron Lynx Mercedes-AMG in LMGT3. Scott Noble will drive a Ferrari for JMW Motorsport. 

The numbers are there. Sargeant is the favorite. It will be tough for Sales and Hyett to win overall as a pro-am in LMP2, but it is not out of the question. Menezes is making a change to GT racing after years in prototypes. However, I think we will see more American winners.

10. LMGT3 will have different British drivers win in consecutive races

Duncan Cameron won at Circuit Paul Ricard with Spirit of Race Ferrari in the LMGT3 class. It was the only victory for a British driver in the LMGT3 class. 

ELMS has not had British winners in consecutive races in the GT class since the first two races of the 2018 season. Liam Griffin and Alex MacDowall won at Circuit Paul Ricard. Cameron then won at Monza.

Cameron will be back in LMGT3 in 2025, but ELMS' GT class, but there will be a few other Brits in the class. Ben Tuck and Andrew Gilbert will each be in a Kessel Racing entry. Michael Wainwright is set for a  ride with GR Racing. There are also a number of open seats that could be occupied by British drivers. If Cameron wins in 2025, he will not be the only one and there will be another Brit not too far behind.

Other

11. The closest finish in an Intercontinental GT Challenge race will be greater than four seconds 

IGTC does have a knack for close races. 

The Nürburgring 24 Hour was decided by 0.603 seconds, and that wasn't even the closest race in the 2024 IGTC season! The Indianapolis 8 Hours saw Team WRT BMW win by 0.260 seconds over the Wright Motorsports Porsche. Even the Bathurst 12 Hour was decided by just over 2.6 seconds. 

After a year of close finishes, we are going to see a year for fewer close finishes. Four seconds is close, but that will be the closest it gets in 2025. 

The upcoming IGTC season will see the return of the Suzuka 1000km. There will be one more chance for a close finish, but I don't think they will be as close as we saw in 2024.

12. Ben Barnicoat will win a proper class on at least three different continents in at least two different championships

Barnicoat is a bit of an under-appreciated driver, but he has been rather successful with the Lexus program  in IMSA. For 2025, we will see Barnicoat move to Lexus' WEC program with Akkodis ASP Team.

It is not clear how much Barnicoat will run in IMSA, but he has won seven races in three full seasons in IMSA. He could lead Lexus to WEC glory to the surprise of no one. Whether or not Barnicoat is full-time in both championships or an endurance driver in IMSA, he is going to be competing in multiple series, and I believe he will be winning in multiple series as well in multiple corners of the globe.

We are beyond halfway in our 2025 predictions. With Formula One and NASCAR also in the bag, we will have some two-wheel predictions come Monday.