IndyCar is in the midst of a calendar shift. Events are leaving but events are coming on... well one event is joining. We think there are venues ready to fill the gaps and there are still a few question marks that should leave us a little weary. Off the heels of IndyCar bringing back another historic venue with Laguna Seca being added for the 2019 season uncertainty hangs around whether this event can be a success.
There is part of me that thinks Laguna Seca is one of those venues people will go to regardless of whether or not the racing is good, kind of like Road America. People just go. It is a destination. People want to sit on the hillside. People want to stand at the top of the corkscrew. People want to make a weekend of it and either stay in a camper on the grounds or stay by the water and spend the day at the racetrack and in the evening walk the Pacific Coast and the sandy sidewalks of an oceanside town. And all of that is foolish to believe.
I have no proof that will be the case. I am hopeful. I hope Road America's success can be repeated; that a venue gone for more than a decade has a groundswell of support from a latent fan base that was lost for many years. There is no proof Road America's success will be repeated at Laguna Seca the same way we have no guarantee Portland will see a boom this year. It is all fingers crossed.
Laguna Seca will replace Sonoma. The two venues were welcomed to share space on the schedule but Sonoma felt it was no longer financially viable to host a race with the addition of Laguna Seca. Sonoma crowds have never been stellar other than a few years from 2008 to maybe 2010 after reunification where the crowds could be best described as good. Moving the season finale did not bring a wave of fans to wine country. The event is gone and it is fair to wonder if Laguna Seca, over 150 miles down the coast, will do any better.
The Sonoma struggles should cause you to ask if Laguna Seca should have been added at all. We have no reason to believe that Laguna Seca will be successful other then it was successful 25 years ago. It isn't 25 years ago. Many things have changed. All we know is IndyCar is getting paid by Laguna Seca and that is a part of the problem with motorsports in this country and maybe around the globe. Everything seems to be operating 25 years in the past. Research is not extensive enough. Money is thrown around hoping a race will be a success and then the event happens and everyone wonders where the people are. When the contract is up it becomes a Mexican standoff over why the track should pay less, why the series deserves more and who is at fault for the lack of attendees.
IndyCar has had this problem for years, even recent years when things have been much rosier. Phoenix was a one-and-done contract, three years and gone. Pocono has been on the fence every year. Texas has faded. Iowa is not the Iowa that is once was event at the start of the DW12-era. And yet every time a race is teetering, a venue from the past is thrown out there because it has to be better than a current venue. Laguna Seca has to be better. Cleveland has to be better. Portland has to be better. They all have to be better because they were better in the past.
But what about now? Basing the success of a venue off 25 years ago is absurd, even off ten years ago is ridiculous. The areas have changed. The mystique of a race coming to town died even if past attendees are still alive. The parents of the 90s might have children with only faint memories of heading to the racetrack or no memories at all. They might not have watched a race in a decade. They have no inclination of going back.
IndyCar is at a point where two venues are gone for 2019, another two could be out the door and we are only sure of this one addition. A handful of venues have been tossed out there as possible replacements: Homestead, Richmond, Circuit of the Americas, a street race in San Antonio but none of them are slam dunks to be an IndyCar date in 2019 let alone draw a respectable crowd.
While it would be crazy to ridicule the return of Laguna Seca maybe IndyCar should cut the dead weight on the schedule: Cut the venues with track owners that are not making money and are dissatisfied with its current IndyCar event. Maybe it would be better if IndyCar went from 17 races to 13 or 14 races and focused on the successful events and take a year or two or three to regroup and complete research where races could be successful.
Expansion has been a current trend in the National Hockey League but Las Vegas didn't just get a team because it sounded nice. An expansion fee had to be met and a ticket drive was held to see if people would put money down to see this team. Vegas got over 13,000 season-ticket deposits in a four-month drive. People did show up, the team had a phenomenal inaugural season and now Seattle is looking into an NHL franchise. Seattle had its own ticket drive. The goal was 10,000 deposits. It reached that in 12 minutes. It had 25,000 deposits in 75 minutes.
When it comes to IndyCar venues it would be smart to hold ticket drives for potential future venues and have a goal. The ticket drives for Las Vegas and Seattle were for season-tickets, which makes the number of people willing to make that financial investment quite impressive. An IndyCar ticket drive would be for one race and I think the series should set a minimum to pursue a race. If a race doesn't have 25,000 suitors then it isn't worth it. It would save our time and it would be disappointing. There would be venues we wish were back on the schedule only to find out 7,000 people put down deposits. But with that disappointment would come realistic expectations over what venues could be successful because if the goal is met you at least know a track has a base IndyCar is starting with.
I am not sure a ticket drive is possible for an IndyCar race or if it is a good measuring stick for a race and there are probably arguments why that is more suited for season tickets for a professional sports team than a two-day or three-day event but it has to be a more accurate predictor for an event's success than relying on nostalgia that the 1990s will return.
We have no clue how many people are willing to put money down for IndyCar at Laguna Seca. I am sure there are estimates that passed between the IndyCar offices and the officials operating Laguna Seca but are the estimates solid? Are there commitments from fans? It doesn't feel right that it will have been 15 years between IndyCar races at Laguna Seca but if only 10,000 people show up next year and it does not become solvent at the end of the contract was it worth it?
If IndyCar does lose more venues, if Texas and Pocono each exit and if Portland flames out after one year it would be a terrible blow for the series but maybe it would be the right time for IndyCar to take a breath with its black eye and instead of looking for a sanctuary at a racetrack with no guarantee that it will stick for more than a year or three years or five years the series should take the time to find one venue at a time where it knows people will show up and the track can be successful.
We are happy now with the return of Laguna Seca but we should be smarter tomorrow with new venues.
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