Lewis Hamilton won the German Grand Prix from 14th on the grid in slick and teasing conditions after Sebastian Vettel put his car off course while leading the race and in turn Hamilton has retaken the championship lead. NASCAR had to wait for the race to pass and it had its annual dirt race in the middle of the week at Eldora. The GT classes took center stage for IMSA at Lime Rock Park. In Austria, a certain Frenchman continues to win races. Team Penske is six victories away from 500 as an organization. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
How Close Is It?
Last month, when NASCAR was trying to figure out what it was doing and the aero package utilized in the All-Star Race was all the rage, NASCAR CEO Steve O'Donnell was on the fence. Though he initially said the package could be implemented that season and as early as within three races, the package was not introduced and the series decided to wait until next year before any changes were made.
However, despite openly floating out the idea of introducing an alternate aero package, in the announcement about the delayed decision, O'Donnell said the following: "We're really happy with the racing we have on track. We believe that the competition is closer than ever right now."
Somewhere there is a misunderstanding. The racing is closer than and everybody is happy but at the same time things aren't going enough and a drastic change has to be made. If you are happy with your marriage, you don't go out chasing strangers.
It did get me thinking, is this the closest season ever? Is the average margin of victory closer than ever before? To be honest, I don't have the time to go through 70 years of Cup series record and besides, we know it is much closer than the years where winning by a lap wasn't surprising. But what about since 2008, the year the Car of Tomorrow became the full-time car?
So is this year the closest since 2008? No. This year is actually the largest average margin of victory in the last decade. Through 20 races, the average margin of victory is 2.709 with a median of 1.875. The next closest year was 2008, where the average was 2.215 seconds. The next closest median margin of victory was 1.07 seconds in 2010. The 2014 season had an average finish of 0.908 seconds with a median of 0.5825 seconds, the closest season in both categories.
Before this season, the previous two years had an average finish of 1.21 seconds and 1.27 seconds with medians of 0.769 seconds and 0.779 seconds respectively. This year has had two races with margins of victory over ten seconds. Before this season the last race won by more than ten seconds was at Texas in November 2009 when Kurt Busch took the victory by 25.686 seconds over Denny Hamlin.
Things are not closer, far from that but this year has also been quite an outlier for NASCAR. We have had three drivers combine for 15 victories through 20 victories. The last time three drivers combined for this many victories through 20 races was 1974. This isn't a common occurrence, nor do I think it is the sign of things to come. This is a historic season but people are still not happy.
Meanwhile, how does IndyCar look? The series introduce the universal aero kit this season and while it has been a winner in terms of its aesthetics, on-track has been a harder battle. There has been praise but there has also been scorn, most notably after the Indianapolis 500, where 30 lead changes were not enough.
IndyCar and NASCAR have something in common this year. Since 2008, the year of reunification, this year's average margin of victory is the greatest of the last 11 seasons at 4.572 seconds with a median of 4.747 seconds. All nine races to finish under green flag conditions this season have had margins of victory greater than a second. However, this season is not that much greater than what we have seen since 2008. The 2014 season is the only one to feature an average margin of victory under 2.5 seconds. It also had a median margin of victory of 2.29 seconds, only 2012 had a closer median margin of victory at 2.2219 seconds.
Margin of victory does not tell the entire story. In fact, a motorsports box score does a horrible job telling the story. Ryan Hunter-Reay won the second Belle Isle race by 11.355 seconds over Will Power but that does not tell the run Hunter-Reay made closing a nine-second gap to Alexander Rossi and pressuring his teammate into a mistake that handed him the lead. Kyle Busch won Chicago by 1.875 seconds over Kyle Larson but we all know it wasn't as simple as that. It does not tell the drive Larson made to close down Busch and their last lap battle.
Margin of victory, lead changes, number of cars on the lead lap, even total number of passes lack something. It is difficult to boil down a race to a few key points and the problem is in five years, in a decade, in 50 years people will look back and only see margin of victory, lead changes, cars on the lead lap and total number of passes and base whether it was a good race off those numbers. Times change. Racing changes. Wilbur Shaw won the 1937 Indianapolis 500 by 2.16 seconds over Ralph Hepburn, closer than this year's result but what is missed is Hepburn closing the gap as Shaw battled an oil pressure issues. I am not sure that race is good enough for the 21st century despite it standing as the closest Indianapolis 500 finish for 45 years.
In 2018, every race is either the greatest of all-time or the worst. Doesn't matter what series it is: IndyCar, NASCAR, Formula One and so on. Races cannot be ok in this decade. People live and die by it. No one can accept saying at the end of the day, "eh, it was alright. There will be another one next week." The emotion has to be one extreme or the other and it is life or death. People decide whether or not it is worth going forward off one race.
It is unfortunate constant dissatisfaction and lack of patience control motorsports. If people are unhappy then change has to be made immediately to make the field closer, to make passing easier and more abundant. Changes are expected to be immediate. Nuance is lost. We are obsessed with these numbers and yet we do not know what they mean in context.
This year has not been the closest for NASCAR or IndyCar but we are seeing special things in both series. In one you have a three-man battle each week, each stepping up and meeting the next. We saw it yesterday at Loudon when it appeared unlikely, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. ended up in the top three in the closing laps. In the other series, you have one of the greatest drivers of all time coyly moving up the record books and set to win another championship while the rest of the field stumbles to keep up. Sometimes it is the entire book that is great and not a picking apart each chapter.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton but did you know...
Kevin Harvick won the NASCAR Cup race from Loudon, his sixth victory of the season. Christopher Bell won the Grand National Series race. Chase Briscoe won the Truck race from Eldora on Wednesday.
The #66 Ford GT of Joey Hand and Dirk Müller won the IMSA race at Lime Rock Park. The #48 Paul Miller Lamborghini of Bryan Sellers and Madison Snow won in GT Daytona.
The #26 G-Drive Racing Oreca-Gibson of Jean-Éric Vergne, Romain Rusinov and Andrea Pizzitola won the 4 Hours of Red Bull Ring, the team's second consecutive victory. The #15 RLR Sport Ligier-Nissan of John Farno, Rob Garofall and Job van Ulitert won in LMP3, the team's second victory of the season. The #88 Proton Competition Porsche of Matteo Cairoli, Gianluca Roda and Giorgio Roda won in GTE.
Scott McLaughlin and Shane van Gisbergen split the Supercars races from Queensland Raceway.
Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar has one more race before its summer break at Mid-Ohio and all three Road to Indy series will be there.
Formula One has one more race before its summer break at Hungary.
The 24 Hours of Spa is held.
Pocono plays host to NASCAR with the Grand National Series on its way to Iowa.
Rally Finland!
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
