On top of that we will look at who was missing from each series and what drivers have run their course in the ladder system and may need to start looking elsewhere for a motorsports career.
We start with Indy Lights and will work our way down to Pro Mazda and U.S. F2000.
Indy Lights
Patricio O'Ward: #27 CDMX Mexico City Mazda (491 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: This is the championship favorite. O'Ward was unfortunate not to win the 2016 Pro Mazda championship, a year where he was stellar. He looked good in sports cars last year and he looked good in the LMP2 car he ran at Daytona in January. He will win multiple races.
How incorrect was it: I believe I had that. O'Ward was dazzling in Pro Mazda only to have a few rough days and a clash with teammate and championship rival Aaron Telitz keep him from earning the scholarship money and making it to Indy Lights in 2017. But O'Ward could not have had a better gap year. Yes, the final year of the IMSA Prototype Challenge class was at most three cars but he looked stellar and it was only inevitable that he was going to pick up right where he left off in single-seaters. He won nine of 17 races.
Colton Herta: #98 Andretti Steinbrenner Racing/Curb Mazda (447 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Herta looked good in 2017 and most of the bad days seemed to be out of his hands. His teammate O'Ward will provide a tough championship challenge, as will Urrutia. Herta will win races in 2018 and he will be in the title fight. Remember, Herta will still be 17 years old at the season opener and his birthday is March 30th. There is a lot of time for Herta. Give him time if it doesn't all come together this year.
How incorrect was it: It was spot on. O'Ward matched the wunderkind. Actually, he beat him. It wasn't Herta crumbling that cost him the championship. He responded to O'Ward strong start with a strong May and June. However, one round from hell in Toronto knocked him off the top and a wrist injury added... well injury to insult. He ended the year constantly on his teammate's heel and that day never came where he ended up back on the top step of the podium.
Santiago Urrutia: #5 Belardi Auto Racing Mazda (395 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Urrutia has finished runner-up both years he has raced in Indy Lights. He is ready for IndyCar. The only question is will he have the funding to carry out a full season? He can win races and ended 2017 on a high note. If the money is there Urrutia will be fighting for the title.
How incorrect was it: The good news is the money was there for Urrutia to run the entire season and he won twice but he really never had the consistency to get himself into the championship conversation.
Ryan Norman: #48 Journey Mazda (345 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Norman was solid in his first year in the Indy Lights car. He is 19 years old but I think he is a distance off the top drivers in Indy Lights.
How incorrect was it: It is hard to gauge how a driver improved from one year to the next when the size of the grid was cut in half and there were only seven cars in most races but Norman seemed to be the most improved driver. He didn't put a wheel wrong until the final race of the season but he won at Gateway after going toe-to-toe with Herta when Herta had everything to lose. He started on pole position for the finale but tossed it away in the chicane at the start.
Victor Franzoni: #23 Mazda Motorsports Mazda (341 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Franzoni has busted his butt to get to Indy Lights and he knows most of these tracks. There could be some growing pains with the IL-15 chassis but I think he will beat his teammate on a regular basis. He could win a race but he should definitely score a few podium finishes.
How incorrect was it: Franzoni didn't have a teammate for majority of the season as Alfonso Celis, Jr. went from Indy Lights to IndyCar after finishes of seventh and eighth out of eight cars at Barber. Franzoni did win a race and stood on the podium five times but his season was hampered by funding despite the scholarship from his Pro Mazda championship.
Who should we have seen more of?
Carlin. Indy Lights needed cars from anywhere the series could get them but Carlin's absence was brutal. It was at least two cars off the grid as the team went from four Indy Lights cars in 2017 to two IndyCar entries in 2018. The presence of Carlin was not going to solve the low car count issue but the series needed all the cars it could get and Carlin would likely have put two drivers of quality on track that would have given O'Ward, Herta and Urrutia a run for their money.
Who have we seen enough of?
Dalton Kellett. His Road to Indy career at a glance: 108 starts. Zero victories. Seven podium finishes. 13 top five finishes and six of those top five finishes came this season when the entry list was consistently seven entries. He didn't break 300 points, the only full-time driver not to score 300 points. Indy Lights isn't attracted a lot of drivers so it is hard to say one should be turned away but I think we have seen all that we need to of Kellett. It is not that he is a bad guy but he likely will not be the next regular Canadian on the IndyCar grid... unless the money is there... then he will be on the grid ahead of at least three or four drivers that finished better than him in Indy Lights.
Pro Mazda
Rinus VeeKay: #2 Jumbo Supermarkets/La Place Restaurants/KNAF Talent First Mazda (412 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: VeeKay was solid in U.S. F2000 and he looked good at the Homestead test. I don't think he will be on the podium as much as he was in U.S. F2000 but I think he could be the top Juncos Racing driver and finish in the top five of the championship.
How incorrect was it: I got this one correct. He was not on the podium as much as he was in U.S. F2000. His ten podium finishes were two fewer than 2017. He was the top Juncos Racing driver and he did finish in the top five of the championship. In fact, he finished in the top one of the championship. VeeKay started the season sweeping the St. Petersburg weekend and ended the season with seven consecutive podium finishes including five victories.
Parker Thompson: #90 Exclusive Autosport/Badlands Motorsport Resort (345 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Thompson took his time in U.S. F2000 and he is ready for Pro Mazda. He was quick in testing and I think he will be a championship contender. While he took his time in U.S. F2000, I think Thompson could be ready for Indy Lights after this season regardless of if he wins the title or not.
How incorrect was it: Thompson appeared to be the man who would walk away with the championship. Through the first nine races he won three races, had five podium finishes and had not finished worse than fifth. The final seven races did not go his way. He didn't finish ahead of VeeKay for the rest of the season; his best finish was third and finished outside the top five on four occasions.
Oliver Askew: #3 Mazda Motorsports/Mockett & Co./Rising Star Racing Mazda (303 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Askew was impressive in U.S. F2000 but he hasn't been consistently at the top of the time sheets during testing. I think he will turn it around and get results but I don't expect a cakewalk, in fact I would not be surprised if Askew doesn't win the championship. He can win a race but he might have to settle for podium finishes and top five finishes.
How incorrect was it: It was a difficult season for Askew but he improved greatly from day one to the finale. He only had five podium finishes but he got a victory at Portland and he ended up third in the championship.
David Malukas: #79 HMD Trucking Mazda (293 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Malukas was not a full-time driver in U.S. F2000 last year but in the races he was in he looked good. He was fastest at the Barber test. I think he could challenge for the top five in the championship.
How incorrect was it: He finished fourth in the championship and Malukas won three races. What kept Malukas from a better championship finish were the days when he was off. He had eight finishes outside the top five and all eight of those results were seventh or worse.
What did I write at the start of the season: Megennis won the first race of the U.S. F2000 last year and then never made it back to the podium. I think he will have good days but not be a championship contender and finish somewhere in the back half of the top ten in the championship.
How incorrect was it: He finished fifth, so he just made the top half of the top ten. Megennis had six podium finishes this season but it was one polar end or the other. He was either competitive and at the front or not really a contender.
Who should we have seen more of?
Harrison Scott. The British driver did not get to compete Mid-Ohio or Portland but the RP Motorsport driver was quick. He won at Barber and the IMS road course and he had a pair of thirds at Road America. His bad days were really bad though. His other six finishes were ninth, 12th, 12th, 12th, 13th and 14th. However, he returned for Gateway, won pole position and finished third. He scored an average of 18.583 points per race and that was better than Malukas and Megennis.
Who have we seen enough of?
Nikita Lastochkin. He ran all 16 races and finished behind Scott, who missed four races and Carlos Cunha, who did not contested the final three races. Between two seasons in U.S. F2000 and two seasons in Pro Mazda he has made 59 starts and last year Pro Mazda only had about eight to ten entries a round.
U.S. F2000
Kyle Kirkwood: #8 Firstex/SAFEisFAST.com/Bell Helmets/Sparco Mazda (440 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Kirkwood was ready for U.S. F2000 last year. He was a Team USA Scholarship driver the same year as Oliver Askew. He is with the right team and I think he is one of the championship favorites.
How incorrect was it: This was an ass whooping. He won 12 of 14 races and his other results were second and fifth. He matched J.R. Hildebrand for most victories in a single U.S. F2000 seasons. He won the championship by 202 points.
Rasmus Lindh: #23 Chicago Pneumatic Mazda (238 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: The Swede jumped into the car and was fast out of the box. He could be a championship contender and I think he will win a few races.
How incorrect was it: Lindh took a few rounds but he found the pace and was pushing Kirkwood but couldn't breakthrough. He had five podium finishes and three pole positions.
Lucas Kohl: #22 Bellko Trading/Kohltrade/IVI Vision Mazda (215 points)
Wha did I write at the start of the season: Kohl was quiet in 2017 and he showed he was a competent. He was in the top five for five of six Homestead test sessions. I think he gives Ming a run for his money but he might not be the best Pabst driver.
How incorrect was it: Kohl was second best Pabst driver to Lindh. His trips to the podium were scattered but he ended the season with four top five finishes in the final five races.
Igor Fraga: #91 Cenibra/Usiminas Mazda (213 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: He was hovering around the top ten during the Homestead test. I think he will have good days but could need a few races to get his feet under him.
How incorrect was it: Fraga had a second place in the second St. Petersburg race but he then fell to running outside the top five until Toronto and he had four top five finishes in the final six races.
Calvin Ming: #21 Mings Products and Services/APAN Mazda (206 points)
What did I write at the start of the season: Ming had a few good days in 2017 but he needs to find that extra bit to be a championship contender. He could win a race or two.
How incorrect was it: That race victory never was close for Ming and after scoring 207 points and finishing fifth in the 2017 championship he scored 206 points and finished fifth in the championship.
Who should we have seen more of?
Alex Baron. He won twice and was second in the championship when he disappeared from the Road to Indy for a second time.
Dakota Dickerson is leading the Formula 4 United States Championship and he ran the final nine races. Like his first stint in U.S. F2000, Dickerson was consistently in the top ten and he had a second place finish in the first Toronto race. Two rounds remain in the Formula 4 United States Championship and he could take that title but he should be on the Road to Indy.
Jamie Caroline ran the first two rounds and his finishes were 24th, fourth, fourth and 24th. How is that for consistency? The good news is Caroline returned to competition in the BRDC British Formula Three Championship and in six races he has won twice driving for Carlin. Hopefully Caroline returns to the United States if Carlin decides to re-enter the Road to Indy.
Who have we seen enough of?
It is U.S. F2000. The drivers are too young to say. Many are still developing and learning. A driver might not have promising results now but could make big gains in the next year or two.
I wrote about it last year but the Road to Indy has a driver shortage.
Look at this way:
O'Ward and Herta are going to IndyCar next week basically.
Urrutia likely will not be back. We don't see many four-year Indy Lights drivers (Except for Gustavo Yacamán).
Norman probably should come back, same for Franzoni but will Franzoni have the funding? He barely made it through this season with a scholarship. Aaron Telitz is 26 years old and will turn 27 in December. This was not Telitz's greatest year and if the nightmare that was St. Petersburg and Barber rounds never happened we might be talking him as potential Indy Lights graduate. We have covered Kellett. It is conceivable that six of seven Indy Lights drivers could be elsewhere next year and not only will the series need to replenish those vacant seats but also needs to find another eight to ten drivers.
Like I wrote last year, where are those drivers coming from?
Pro Mazda isn't 35 drivers deep and can lose ten drivers because there is another ten ready to move in. Pro Mazda might have three or four drivers ready to go. U.S. F2000 isn't deep.
It isn't a Road to Indy problem. Grids are down across America. Look at ARCA and NASCAR's East and West series today and compare those grids to 12-15 years ago. This isn't the era where Indy Lights, Atlantics and Pro Mazda all have over two-dozen entries. Drivers aren't going to pop out of nowhere. I am not sure how the Indy Lights grid can grow to a respectable size with Pro Mazda growing a bit and U.S. F2000 retaining the level it is currently at.
I am really concerned about the future of the Road to Indy and the drivers that participate in the three series. The ladder system has an issue where drivers live on the scholarship money and once it is gone that driver is gone and talented drivers have been lost. All three series need to become more affordable and in the case of Indy Lights that series needs to become friendlier to sponsorship.
When it comes to individuals, O'Ward and Herta enter an already populated IndyCar free agent market but somebody will take a shot on these two. Urrutia's hand has been forced and IndyCar has to be the next step but with O'Ward and Herta already getting opportunities and the likes of Conor Daly, Gabby Chaves, Carlos Muñoz, Kyle Kaiser, Jordan King, Pietro Fittipaldi, Santino Ferrucci, Ed Jones, Zachary Claman De Melo and Sage Karam all looking for full-time rides Urrutia's hope might rest in a few more teams entering IndyCar on a part-time basis in 2019.
VeeKay and Thompson are ready for Indy Lights and VeeKay has the tie to Juncos Racing but Thompson's promotion may rest on funding. Askew got better as the Pro Mazda season went along but does Askew have the time to suffer growing pains in year one of Indy Lights and know a second year is waiting if he needs it? Malukas and Megennis both could probably use another year of Pro Mazda.
As for U.S. F2000, I want to see if Kyle Kirkwood is for real or if Cape Motorsports has a stranglehold on U.S. F2000 and inflates the value of young drivers. Kirkwood was the seventh consecutive Cape Motorsports driver to win the U.S. F2000 championship. Of the previous six champions, only Matt Brabham won the Pro Mazda championship the following year. Brabham was the first Cape Motorsports driver to win the U.S. F2000 title. The previous six Cape Motorsports U.S. F2000 drivers' champions have won a combined 25 Pro Mazda races, Brabham is responsible for 13 of those victories. I want to see if Kirkwood actually has it or if one team is too dominant in U.S. F2000 and it gives us a false sense of talent.
The final thing to focus on is whether or not a supporter is found to fill Mazda's vacancy. It is a big ask to have a company put millions of dollar on the table to be split between three drivers and have no return on investment. It seems a definite financial loss and with that appearing to be the case how long can you get a company to commit for? Mazda stood behind the ladder system for nine years. If a replacement is found, I think it would be a big snag if it committed to three or four years and ensured at least one set of drivers the chance to be able to go from U.S. F2000 to IndyCar on scholarships alone.
This offseason is a bit shaky for the Road to Indy. A lot of things are on the agenda and each one seems bigger than the one prior. This has to be an active offseason for the Road to Indy series for the benefit of the long-term health of the ladder system.
