The first full weekend of autumn sees Formula One back in action, NASCAR doing something it has never done before, a championship that could be clinched, a pair of championships that will be decided and some touring car races.
Russian Grand Prix
Formula One makes one final trip to Europe (kind of) and Sochi returns to the autumnal part of the calendar. With six races to go, five drivers remain mathematically eligible for the championship.
Lewis Hamilton heads into Russia leading the championship with 281 points. Hamilton has won the last two races and he has won four of the last six races with an average finish of 1.333 over those six races. He has also won four pole positions during that period. Mercedes-Benz has won every Russian Grand Prix but has won the last three races with three different drivers. Hamilton is the only driver with multiple Russian Grand Prix victories.
Sebastien Vettel trails Hamilton by 40 points. Vettel has finished second in each Russian Grand Prix in an odd-numbered year. Vettel has not won the 16th race of a season since he clinched the 2013 World Drivers' Championship at India. That victory in India was his fourth consecutive year winning the 16th race on the calendar.
Kimi Räikkönen is third in the championship but he trails Hamilton by 107 points. Räikkönen is in position to get his best championship results since he finished third in 2012. He has finished third the last two years in Russia. Valtteri Bottas is three points behind his fellow countryman and last year's Sochi race was Bottas' first career victory. Bottas also finished on the podium in the 2014 race when he was third behind Hamilton and Nico Rosberg whilst driving for Williams.
Max Verstappen is the final driver alive for the championship. The Dutchman trails Hamilton by 133 points after he picked up his sixth podium finishes of the year with a runner-up result at Singapore. Red Bull Racing has never had a podium finish at Sochi, in fact all Sochi podium finishes have either been powered by Mercedes-Benz or Ferrari. The German power unit supplier has had eight of the 12 podium finishes in the four Sochi races and last year's race was the first time that two Mercedes-Benz powered cars did not end up on the podium.
The Russian Grand Prix will take place at 7:10 a.m. ET on Sunday September 30th.
Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course
NASCAR will run the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course for the first time in series history. The 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course is the final race of the first round of the Chase and three drivers have clinched a spot in the next round.
Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have each advanced based on their victories at Richmond and Las Vegas respectively. Martin Truex, Jr. has clinched a spot based on points. Kevin Harvick is 57 points above the cut line and all Harvick needs to do is score three points in this race to assure himself a place in the next round.
After those four, the rest of the field is up in the air. Joey Logano is 25 points to the good with Aric Almirola two points behind Logano. Kyle Larson is three points behind Almirola on 2,073 points and Kurt Busch rounds out the top eight on 2,071 points.
Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon are both ten points to the good with 2,066 points. Alex Bowman sits on 2,061 points whilst Ryan Blaney is on the bubble with 2,060 points. Clint Bowyer is one of five drivers with multiple victories this season but he is four points behind Blaney with Jimmie Johnson two points behind Bowyer. Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin are 21 points and 29 points respectively on the outside.
Among active drivers, Elliott has the second-best average finish on road courses at 10.0. The Watkins Glen winner trails over Daniel Suárez, whose average finish is 9.5 on road courses. Jones and Bowyer are third and fourth best at 11.8 and 12.0 respectively. Johnson is one of ten drivers to have an average finish below 15 with Johnson averaging 14.7. Logano has averaged a finish of 14.8 in 20 road course starts and Kurt Busch has an average finish of 14.9 in 36 road course starts.
Larson has won the pole position the last two years at Sonoma and he has started in the top five in eight of ten road course starts and in the top ten in nine of ten road course starts. Despite Larson's qualifying record he has never finished in the top ten at Sonoma and at Watkins Glen he has finished fourth and sixth in 2014 and 2018 respectively. He has completed 998 of a possible 1,000 laps in his ten road course starts.
Blaney has an average finish of 17.5 on road courses but he has been running at the finish of all six of his road course starts. Hamlin has an average finish of 18.0 but the only Chase drivers with a worse average finish is Dillon at 22.6, Almirola at 22.8 and Bowman at 24.7, however, Bowman finished ninth at Sonoma and 14th at Watkins Glen this year. Dillon is the only Chase driver without a top ten finish on a road course in his Cup career.
The NASCAR Cup race from Charlotte will take place at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday September 30th.
World Superbikes at Magny-Cours
The final European round of the World Superbike season takes place at Circuit de Nevers-Magny Cours. The title could be decided this weekend.
Kawasaki rider Jonathan Rea enters with a 116-point lead over Ducati's Chaz Davies with 150 points left on the table.Yamaha's Michael van der Mark trails Rea by 284 points. Rea has won six consecutive races while van der Mark has three consecutive podium finishes. Davies has three consecutive fourth-place finishes after having three consecutive runner-up finishes before that stretch.
Rea is going for his fourth consecutive World Superbike championship and it would tie Carl Fogarty's record for most championships all-time in series history. Rea already broke the record for most World Superbike victories earlier this season at Laguna Seca in July.
To clinch the championship this weekend, Rea will need to score 34 points. If Davies were to sweep the races that would mean Rea would need to finish second and third this weekend. If Rea were to win the first race from Magny-Cours, he would clinch the championship with a seventh place finish in race two.
Rea swept the Magny-Cours races in 2015 and he won race one last year before retiring in race two last year. Davies swept the 2016 races at Magny-Cours and he won last year's second race.
World Superbikes will race at 7:00 a.m. ET on Saturday September 29th and at 9:15 a.m. ET on Sunday September 30th.
3 Hours of Barcelona
This weekend will be the final round for the Blancpain Endurance Series and the Blancpain GT Series.
Raffaele Marciello is looking to take home two championships. The Italian leads the Endurance championship with 48 points and he will be driving the #88 Mercedes-AMG Team AKKA ASP Mercedes-AMG with Tristan Vautier and Daniel Juncadella. Vautier and Juncadella won last year at Barcelona with Félix Serrallés. The #88 Mercedes-AMG has not won in endurance competition this season but has finished second at Silverstone, was third at the halfway point of the 24 Hours of Spa and finished sixth overall at Spa-Francorchamps.
One point behind Marciello is the #4 Mercedes-AMG Team Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG of Maro Engel, Yelmer Buurman and Luca Stolz. The #4 Mercedes-AMG has not won an endurance race but it finish third at Monza and was in the top five at all three segments of the 24 Hours of Spa, ending with a fifth-place finish.
The #1 Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Audi of Christopher Mies, Dries Vanthoor and Alex Riberas are on 37 points. The #1 Audi won at Monza. Kelvin van der Linde is on 36 points and he will drive the #66 Attempto Racing Audi with Steijn Schothorst and Pieter Schothorst. The #14 Emil Frey Lexus Racing Lexus of Christian Klien, Albert Costa and Marco Seefried won the 1000km Circuit Paul Ricard and are on 35 points. Sheldon van der Linde sits on 34 points and will be in the #17 Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Audi with Stuart Leonard and Frédéric Vervisch.
In the Blancpain GT Series championship, it is Marciello vs. Mies/Riberas for the title. Marciello has 146 points in the overall championship and has a 18.5-point lead over the German-Spaniard duo. Marciello will clinch the Blancpain GT Series championship with a sixth place finish.
The 3 Hours of Barcelona will start at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday September 30th.
World Touring Car Cup at Ningbo
The World Touring Car Cup season has four rounds to go and all four rounds take place in Asia. This weekend's action from Ningbo is the first of two consecutive rounds to take place in China. With 348 points left on the table, nobody has been mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
Gabriele Tarquini leads the championship with 202 points. The Italian has won four races this season driving a Hyundai for BRC Racing Team. The 2009 WTCC champion has a three-point lead over four-time WTCC champion Yvan Muller. Muller has only won twice this season driving a Hyundai for his own team. Tarquini's teammate Norbert Michelisz makes it three Hyundais in the top three of the championship. The Hungarian drivers trails Tarquini by 26 points. Michelisz won the most recent race held at the Slovakiaring and it was his first victory of the season.
Yann Ehrlacher is fourth in the championship on 171 points and the Münnich Motorsports Honda driver has two victories this season. Jean-Karl Vernay rounds out the top five on 166 points. The defending TCR International Series champion has won twice for Audi Sport Leopard Lukoil Team WRT.
Last year, WTCC visited Ningbo for the first time. Argentine drivers Esteban Guerrieri and Néstor Girolami split the races. Guerrieri's only victory this season was the second race from the Nürburgring Nordschleife.
The first race will be at 3:30 a.m. ET on Saturday September 29th. Race two will be at 2:20 a.m. ET on Sunday September 30th with the final race following at 3:40 a.m. ET.
Over or Under?
This is a Roval Special! All five are focused on this weekend's NASCAR Cup race.
1. Over or Under: 1.5 red flag periods?
2. Over or Under: 8.5 cautions?
3. Over or Under: 22.5 lead lap finishers?
4. Over or Under: 24.5 laps being the longest green flag run?
5. Over or Under: 190.5 minutes in race length?
Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over or Under: 7.5 lead changes? (Over: The Grand National Series race had 11 lead changes).
2. Over or Under: 99.5 laps led for the race winner? (Under: Kyle Busch led 92 laps).
3. Over or Under: 2.5 point scorers in race one starting outside the top ten? (Under: Nico Müller and Jamie Green were the only drivers that scored outside the top ten in race one and scored points).
4. Over or Under: 3.0 seconds being the margin of victory? (Under: The margin of victory between Marc Márquez and Andrea Dovizioso was 0.648 seconds).
5. Over or Under: 5.5 nationalities represented in the three class winning entries? (Under: Four nationalities were represented; Portuguese, British, American, Australian and Italian).
Predictions
1. The driver that scores fastest lap at Sochi does finish on the podium.
2. Austin Dillon does not advance from the first round.
3. Tom Sykes gets at least one podium finish.
4. At least two Mercedes-AMG entries finish on the overall 3 Hours of Barcelona podium.
5. Three different teams win at Ningbo.
Last Week's Predictions
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finishes behind at least two of his full-time drivers (Wrong! He finished fourth and was the best JR Motorsports car).
2. Fewer than three top five starters finish in the top five of the Cup race (Correct! Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex, Jr. were the only top five starters to finish in the top five).
3. Sébastien Ogier does not score a point at Red Bull Ring but has a better average finish than Mattias Ekström did at the Hockenheimring (Correct! Ogier did not score a point but his average finish was 14.5, two positions better than Ekström's).
4. At least two front row starters do not finish on the podium. (Wrong! Jorge Lorenzo was the only front row starter not to finish on the podium).
5. There will be at least one first-time class winner this season at Spa-Francorchamps. (Correct! The #2 United Autosport Ligier and the #80 EbiMotors Porsche were first time winners this year in the LMP3 and GTE classes respectively).
Overall: 3/5
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