Can There be a Lead Change on Lap One?
This is the start of what will be a brief period of more philosophical meanderings on motorsports and this is one that has been on my mind for quite some time.
The question is clear: Can a lead change occur on lap one of a race?
Of course, a position swap can occur on lap one. This isn't the Brian Barnhart school of thinking that the pole-sitter should have the right to lead lap one but more has to do with the calculating and the scoring of lead changes. A position swap can occur on lap one. A driver could be leading into turn one at Road America and come turn five a driver could overtake that driver but it is what happens at the finish lap at the completion of the first lap I am most interested in.
I cannot remember the exact moment or race that caused me to raise this question to myself but on September 17, 2000, Jeff Burton led 300 of 300 laps in the NASCAR Cup race at Loudon. The history book shows there was one lead change in the race. How could that be? If you led every lap, where did the lead change occur?
The answer: At the start, because Burton started second and Bobby Labonte started on pole position.
There is something fundamentally wrong with a driver leading every lap of a race but a lead change being scored as occurring. For starters, we are taught that lead changes are only recorded at the start/finish line. In practice, the lead can change eight times over one lap but if the same driver is leading at the start/finish each time then no lead change can be recorded. This is a flaw of the entire lead change statistic but it is at least consistent. For example, in football, if a running back runs laterally from sideline to sideline on first down and only gains two yards forward the running back is not credited with 55 yards rushing. He only gained two yards. Yards gained are based on moving forward from the line of scrimmage.
Moving back to lead changes, you can make an argument that there was a lead change. Burton was not the leader and when he came around to the start/finish line at the end of lap one, he was, therefore a lead change occurred. However, I push back against that because to lead a lap you must first complete a lap.
Labonte won pole position and he led the field to the green flag but the pole-sitter is not guaranteed to lead a lap. If all lead changes are scored at the start/finish line doesn't one have to lead a lap for a lead change to occur? Just because the pole-sitter doesn't lead the first lap doesn't mean a lead change occurred. In essence, there is no leader until the first lap is completed. After all, you need to complete one lap for a race to have taken place.
The spots on the grid are just for the start. Once the race begins, you are free to move. The pole-sitter has the first spot on the grid but he is only the leader in the sense that the pole-sitter is the first car to take the green flag. Once the green flag is out, all bets are off. The pole-sitter could be dropped six positions down the running order before turn one.
In my mind, there cannot be a lead change on lap one because no leader has been established yet. The first lead change of a race can only occur on lap two.
There is a bit of cognitive dissonance in saying a driver led every lap of a race but there was a lead change. For there to be a lead change someone else would have had to led a lap. If nobody else led a lap, how can a lead change have taken place?
Using other sports for comparison purposes, if a basketball team scores eight-seconds into a game and leads 2-0 and proceeds to score the next basket, taking a 4-0 lead a minute later and the teams proceed to trade made two-point baskets for the entirety of the game that team that scored first led the entire game. A lead change never took place. The scores were once tied at 0-0 but going from 0-0 to 2-0 is not a lead change.
The first lap of a race is similar. There is no leader. The field is neutral, equal in a sense.
Other sports do have the difference in the scores becoming level. In soccer, if teams trade goals every 30 minutes with Team A scoring in the 30th minute followed by Team B scoring in the 60th minute with Team A scoring in the 90th minute, Team A would win 2-1 but the lead never changed. The lead went away but at no point was Team A trailing Team B.
Motorsports really doesn't have a state of level. Someone is always leading once a leader is established. There isn't a tie at any point. Technically, there could be a tie. Two drivers or three drivers or 38 drivers could cross the start/finish line simultaneously for the lead, a tie, but that is obscure. There is one leader at the end of every lap.
I can live with there being no way for a possible lead change to take place until the completion of lap two of a race. I think other people could come to that understanding but it does shift over a century of record taking.
Granted, there is nothing wrong with going back and make amendments where necessary and it can be pretty easy to fix. If there was a race where the pole-sitter didn't lead lap one, subtract one lead change. It is pretty simple. For example, on April 5, 1992, Bobby Rahal led 200 of 200 laps at Phoenix but there is a lead change counted because Rahal started second and Michael Andretti started on pole position. Just turn the one into a zero.
There are some inconsistencies in the IndyCar record book. For example, at Phoenix in 2005, Bryan Herta did not lead a lap despite being pole-sitter. Dan Wheldon led the first lap from second on the grid but the order of leaders went Wheldon to Dario Franchitti to Hélio Castroneves to Tony Kanaan to Castroneves to Sam Hornish, Jr. to Franchitti to Hornish, Jr. to Castroneves to Hornish, Jr. No lead change is accounted for in Herta not leading the first lap and Wheldon leading lap one from second.
The IndyCar race from Road America just a few weeks ago follows a similar pattern as the 2005 Phoenix race. There are two recorded lead changes in that race. Alexander Rossi led the first 41 laps, Graham Rahal led lap 42 and Rossi retook the lead on lap 43 and led to the finish. Rossi started second to Colton Herta. It goes Rossi to Rahal to Rossi and not Herta to Rossi to Rahal to Rossi, meaning that race has two lead changes recorded.
Looking back at the 2010 Indianapolis 500, Dario Franchitti led the first lap from third on the grid however, the total number of lead changes is 13 and does not take into account Franchitti leading lap one over the pole-sitter Hélio Castroneves. In the 2014 Indianapolis 500, James Hinchcliffe led the first lap from second on the grid over Ed Carpenter but the official number of lead changes is 34 and does not take Hinchcliffe leading lap one into account.
It is good that a lead change is not counted in those incidents but I have a problem with this inconsistent record taking. If a driver leads every lap but is not the pole-sitter then a lead change is counted but if a driver that is not the pole-sitter leads the first lap of a race but another lead change happens during the race then no lead change is counted for the pole-sitter not leading the first lap?
That is inconsistent scoring and it is a problem. It almost appears a lead change is being scored so people cannot look back and see that there was no lead change and cause a person to say it was a dull race. After all, what inferences are you going to draw from a race if you look back in the record book and see a zero in the lead change column? People are just as wrong for thinking a race with no lead changes is boring and use that as evidence against a racetrack but a series is just as wrong for marking a lead change as occurring even when one never took place.
Looking at the NASCAR record book, there is more consistency in a lead change being counted if the pole-sitter does not lead the first lap. That doesn't make it right, it only makes it consistent.
In the July 2010 Grand National Series race from Iowa, seven lead changes are recorded in the history book but Kyle Busch led lap one with the order of leaders being Busch to Trevor Bayne to Busch to Bayne to Busch to Harvick to Busch. If you count six changes, you are correct but Busch didn't start on pole position, Bayne did. Busch led lap one, therefore a lead change was counted.
We can take an example from the Cup Series this year. There are seven lead changes in the record book for the Sonoma Cup race but the order of leaders is William Byron to Chase Elliott to Martin Truex, Jr. to Denny Hamlin to Truex to Kyle Busch to Truex. That is six lead changes but Kyle Larson started on pole position. Larson didn't lead the first lap, Byron did and that is how we get to seven lead changes.
I am not sure if Formula One officially scores lead changes. It seems like an American thing and it has since been applied to Formula One. Looking at Racing-Reference, it has one lead change for the Chinese Grand Prix though Lewis Hamilton led all 56 laps and you can guess it, Hamilton started second while Valtteri Bottas was on pole position. The same is the case for the Spanish Grand Prix earlier this year. For the Bahrain Grand Prix, Racing-Reference has five lead changes listed but the order of leaders was Sebastian Vettel to Charles Leclerc to Vettel to Leclerc to Hamilton. That is four lead changes but Vettel started second and led lap one over the pole-sitter Leclerc and that is where the fifth lead change comes from.
I don't know if the FIA releases an official number of lead changes in its box score but either way this is how the NASCAR Digital Media owned property lists lead changes for Formula One.
This has actually been very therapeutic because I have been thinking about this for a long time but never put all my thoughts down. Writing this has lifted 10,000 pounds of weight off my back and it doesn't solve anything, it doesn't fix the world at all, it doesn't cure world hunger, it is completely pointless and yet somehow a relief.
Maybe it is just a case of wanting logic in the world and consistency in our recording of history. It is about doing some deep thinking even on the most shallow of subjects.
Winners from the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon but did you know...
Max Verstappen won the German Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.
The #20 GPX Racing Porsche of Kevin Éstre, Michael Christensen and Richard Lietz won the 24 Hours of Spa.
The #10 Kawasaki Racing Team Suzuka 8H Kawasaki of Jonathan Rea, Leon Haslam and Toprak Razgatiloglu won the Suzuka 8 Hours. It is Haslam's third Suzuka 8 Hours victory, Rea's second Suzuka 8 Hours victory, Razgailoglu's first Suzuka 8 Hours victory and Kawasaki's first Suzuka 8 Hours victory since 1993.
Denny Hamlin won the NASCAR Cup race from Pocono, his third victory of the season. Chase Briscoe won the Grand National Series race from Iowa. Ross Chastain won the Truck race from Pocono, his third victory of the season.
Jamie Whincup and Scott McLaughlin split the Supercars races from Queensland Raceway. It was Whincup first victory of the season and McLaughlin's 14th victory of the season.
Oliver Askew swept the Indy Lights races from Mid-Ohio. Kyle Kirkwood swept the Indy Pro 2000 races and he has won five of the last six races. Christian Rasmussen and Hunter McElrea split the U.S. F2000 races.
Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One has one more race before its summer break and the circuit heads to Hungary.
MotoGP returns from its summer break and will keep Eastern Europe busy with a race in Brno.
Watkins Glen hosts NASCAR.
Road America hosts IMSA.
Super GT has a 500-mile race in Fuji.
Rally Finland is upon us.
I don't know if the FIA releases an official number of lead changes in its box score but either way this is how the NASCAR Digital Media owned property lists lead changes for Formula One.
This has actually been very therapeutic because I have been thinking about this for a long time but never put all my thoughts down. Writing this has lifted 10,000 pounds of weight off my back and it doesn't solve anything, it doesn't fix the world at all, it doesn't cure world hunger, it is completely pointless and yet somehow a relief.
Maybe it is just a case of wanting logic in the world and consistency in our recording of history. It is about doing some deep thinking even on the most shallow of subjects.
Winners from the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon but did you know...
Max Verstappen won the German Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.
The #20 GPX Racing Porsche of Kevin Éstre, Michael Christensen and Richard Lietz won the 24 Hours of Spa.
The #10 Kawasaki Racing Team Suzuka 8H Kawasaki of Jonathan Rea, Leon Haslam and Toprak Razgatiloglu won the Suzuka 8 Hours. It is Haslam's third Suzuka 8 Hours victory, Rea's second Suzuka 8 Hours victory, Razgailoglu's first Suzuka 8 Hours victory and Kawasaki's first Suzuka 8 Hours victory since 1993.
Denny Hamlin won the NASCAR Cup race from Pocono, his third victory of the season. Chase Briscoe won the Grand National Series race from Iowa. Ross Chastain won the Truck race from Pocono, his third victory of the season.
Jamie Whincup and Scott McLaughlin split the Supercars races from Queensland Raceway. It was Whincup first victory of the season and McLaughlin's 14th victory of the season.
Oliver Askew swept the Indy Lights races from Mid-Ohio. Kyle Kirkwood swept the Indy Pro 2000 races and he has won five of the last six races. Christian Rasmussen and Hunter McElrea split the U.S. F2000 races.
Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One has one more race before its summer break and the circuit heads to Hungary.
MotoGP returns from its summer break and will keep Eastern Europe busy with a race in Brno.
Watkins Glen hosts NASCAR.
Road America hosts IMSA.
Super GT has a 500-mile race in Fuji.
Rally Finland is upon us.
