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| It will not be a midday race but Iowa will be starting at sunset |
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday July 20th with green flag scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, A.J. Allmendinger and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Dillon Welch and Robin Miller will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 11:00 a.m. ET (60 minutes)*
Qualifying: 2:00 p.m. ET (Live coverage on NBCSN)
Second Practice: 7:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)*
Saturday:
Race: 7:15 p.m. ET (300 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.
There was once a time, not too long ago, when an IndyCar short track race was a shoe-in for an Andretti Autosport victory.
The team won eight consecutive short oval races from Iowa 2010 to Iowa 2014 and the team won nine of 11 short oval races from 2010 to 2015. However, the team has not won any of the last seven short oval races.
Iowa was once a race that could be chalked up as an Andretti Autosport victory. Andretti Autosport won six consecutive years at Iowa and seven of the first nine Iowa races but it has not won the last three years at the 7/8-mile oval. The team has only one top five finish in the last three Iowa races, a third for Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2017.
Hunter-Reay has three Iowa victories, most all-time. The only other drivers with multiple Iowa victories are Dario Franchitti, who won two of the first three Iowa races, and James Hinchcliffe, who won with Andretti Autosport in 2013 and last year with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.
Hunter-Reay heads to Iowa off the back of two disappointing finishes, an 11th at Road America and 16th at Toronto, a race where he had to make an extra pit stop because his seat belts were coming loose. Despite the bad day in Canada, he did not lose a position in the championship. The last three trips to Iowa have not been great for Hunter-Reay. He has retired from two of the three with an engine failure in 2016 and suspension issues in last year's race ruined Hunter-Reay's third place starting position, his best starting position at the track.
In Hunter-Reay's three Iowa victories, he never led more than 37 laps in a race and he has only led 54 laps in 11 starts and all his laps led having come in his victories.
While Hunter-Reay might be leading the Andretti Autosport charge, it is Alexander Rossi who needs the better result.
Rossi is four points behind Josef Newgarden entering Iowa. Rossi has never finished in the top five in three Iowa starts. Last year, he got his best starting position at Iowa, a fifth place starting position. Rossi has only led four laps at the track and all four laps led were in 2016, his first start. Rossi has never finished on the lead lap in this race and he finished two laps down last year.
Iowa comes at time when Rossi is riding a wave of momentum. He has three consecutive top fives, five podium finishes in his last six starts and all six of those results have been top five finishes. Despite not having a top five at Iowa, Rossi has finished in the top ten in ten consecutive oval races and he had podium finishes at Phoenix and Gateway last year.
Marco Andretti heads to Iowa eight years and 137 starts removed from his most recent victory, which came in the first Iowa night race in 2011.
Andretti has three top ten finishes in his last four starts but he does not have a top five finish this season. He hasn't had a top five finish on an oval since he finished third at Fontana in 2015. While praised for his oval prowess, Andretti has finished outside the top ten in the last three Iowa visits and in four of the last five Iowa races, three of which were finishes outside the top fifteen. Andretti hasn't finished in the top ten on a short oval since he was seventh at Iowa in 2015.
While Andretti's record has not been great at Iowa of late, nothing has been great for Zach Veach of late. The Ohioan is 17th on 171 points, one ahead of Ed Jones, who missed the Texas race. Veach's only top ten finishes were a pair of eighths at Belle Isle. In last year's Iowa race, Veach brushed the wall and finished 20th, 21 laps down. His only top ten finish on an oval in his IndyCar career was fifth at Gateway last year.
Newgarden's Redemption
Andretti Autosport's fall from short oval success comes at the hands of Team Penske and Team Penske has been dominant on all ovals. The team has won ten of the last 14 oval races dating back to the start of the 2017 season. The only other team with multiple oval victories in that timeframe is Andretti Autosport, which won the 2017 Indianapolis 500 with Takuma Sato and last year at Pocono with Rossi.
This race weighs heavier on Josef Newgarden and the #2 Chevrolet team. Newgarden led 229 of 300 laps and finished fourth. Newgarden nearly lapped the field but a caution saved the field and Newgarden got caught napping in traffic, allowing James Hinchcliffe pounce and take the lead with Newgarden unable to catch him.
Each Penske driver has won the last three oval races with Newgarden the most recent of the three to take victory on an oval after his stunning strategy play at Texas. Newgarden has five consecutive top ten finishes at Iowa, four of which are top five finishes, one of which was a victory with Ed Carpenter Racing in 2016, a race where he led 282 laps. He has led 623 of the last 1,200 laps run at Iowa.
Amongst active drivers with at least three starts at the track, Newgarden has the best average finish at 7.0 and the only driver with a better average finish at Iowa with at least three starts all-time is Dan Wheldon, who had an average finish of 6.8 in four starts.
Simon Pagenaud is coming off a dominant victory at Iowa and he started off this successful oval period for Team Penske having won the 2017 Phoenix race. Pagenaud has never finished on the podium at Iowa and he has only led 13 laps in seven starts at the track. He has completed 1,998 of a possible 2,000 laps in his seven starts.
Will Power's season took another turn for the worse at Toronto after a first lap incident in turn eight sent him down the order. Power got back into the top ten but then had another incident in turn eight once Pagenaud had started the final lap and instead of finishing in the top ten, Power ended the day in 18th.
Power has won the last two pole positions at Iowa and he has four consecutive top ten finishes at the track after having only one finish in the top fifteen in his previous four Iowa starts. His worst starting position at the track was 11th in his first appearance in 2008. He has led only 80 laps in ten Iowa starts. Power has been the top Penske finisher at Iowa only twice, when he finished tenth in 2015 and when he finished second in 2016.
Bourdais' Second Century Mark
The championship battle and the Andretti Autosport-Team Penske battle will be the focus of Iowa but an IndyCar champion reaches an important milestone this weekend. If he takes the green flag on Saturday night, Sébastien Bourdais will make his 200th IndyCar start.
Bourdais will be the 25th driver to reach the 200th start milestone. Bourdais' former Newman/Haas Racing teammate Graham Rahal became the 24th driver to reach the landmark start at the Indianapolis 500 in May. It was a race where Bourdais and Rahal infamously came together in turn three, bringing out the final caution of the race.
Just like with Rahal, no driver has ever won in a 200th start. The best finish for a driver in a 200th start is second, which occurred for Al Unser, Jr. at Michigan in 1995 and Paul Tracy at Portland in 2003.
Bourdais is going to become the third European driver to reach the 200-start milestone. Dario Franchitti has the most IndyCar starts for a European driver with 265 starts and Oriol Servià is second on 204 starts.
Bourdais heads into his 200 starts having not won in his last 27 appearances and he has only two podium finishes and six top five finishes since he won at St. Petersburg last year.
Five of Bourdais' 37 victories have come on ovals and he has won on three different ovals. His second career victory came at Lausitz in 2003. He won in both of his Las Vegas starts in 2004 and 2005. He won at Milwaukee in 2006 and he won the most recent trip to Milwaukee in 2015.
Bourdais has made five starts at Iowa and only once has he finished on the lead lap when he finished ninth in 2015 and he led six laps in that race. His best finish was eighth in 2016 despite being one lap down. The only time Bourdais started in the top ten at Iowa was in 2014 when he started sixth. His 15th place qualifying position last year is his second best starting position at the 7/8-mile oval.
Carlin's All-American Duo
In what is becoming a weekly feature, we take a look at Carlin's drivers and this weekend sees the team employ two American drivers.
Sage Karam will remain the #31 Chevrolet but Conor Daly returns and he will drive the #59 Chevrolet.
Karam is coming off a 21st place finish at Toronto, his first road/street course race since 2015 and Iowa is the place of Karam's only podium finish. Karam finished third in the 2015 race behind Hunter-Reay and Newgarden and it was a race where American drivers took the top four positions with Rahal finishing fourth and Ed Carpenter and Marco Andretti finished sixth and seventh with Carlos Muñoz in the middle of all it finishing in the fifth position.
Besides being the location of Karam's best IndyCar finish to date, he has loads of Road to Indy success at the track. He won four consecutive years at the track from 2010 to 2013 with a U.S. F2000 victory in 2010, Pro Mazda victories in 2011 and 2012 and a Indy Lights victory in 2013.
While Karam has a few good memories from Iowa, Daly has nothing positive to look back upon. Daly has made two starts at Iowa but he finished where he started on both occasions and in both occasions he retired from the race. In 2016, he retired while driving for Dale Coyne Racing due to an engine failure and was classified in 21st. The following year, he brushed the wall driving for A.J. Foyt Racing and was classified in 19th.
With the inclusion of Karam and Daly, the IndyCar grid will have 12 American drivers for this weekend at Iowa, the most number of Americans entered for an Iowa race.
Return to Night Racing
After three years of running on Sunday afternoon, Iowa returns to being a Saturday night race on the IndyCar schedule.
While Iowa is commonly thought of as a night race, four of the first 12 Iowa races have been held at night with 2011-12 and 2014-15 being the four occasions.
What should make Andretti Autosport more confident this weekend is it has won all four Iowa night races, with Andretti taking the 2011 race and Hunter-Reay winning the other three. On top of that, the four Iowa night races have been won from 17th, seventh, 13th and ninth on the grid.
Andretti Autosport has the upper hand in Iowa night races but Team Penske has been king of the night in recent years. Team Penske has won six of seven night races since 2017 while Hunter-Reay's 2015 Iowa victory is Andretti Autosport's most recent victory at night. The only night race Team Penske hasn't won in the last three years was last year at Texas when Scott Dixon took the victory.
In all four night races, the winner did not lead the most laps but on all four occasions the driver that led the most laps led over 100 laps, although it should be noted the last eight Iowa races have had at least one driver lead 100 laps or more after the first four Iowa races did not have any drivers break triple-digit laps led.
Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on July 20th and the first since both races of the 2014 Toronto doubleheader were contested on July 20th because the Saturday was washed out. Sébastien Bourdais won the first race and Mike Conway won the second race.
This Saturday would have been Chris Amon's 76th birthday. Scott Dixon will turn 39 years old on Monday July 22nd.
The Iowa winner has gone on to win the championship on three occasions, Dario Franchitti in 2007 and 2009 and Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.
Last year's Iowa race was the fastest in event history with James Hinchcliffe winning at an average speed of 149.636 MPH beating the previous record, which was 148.559 MPH in 2013, a race that James Hinchcliffe won.
The driver that has led the most laps at Iowa has only won four of the 12 races (Franchitti 2007, Hinchcliffe 2013, Newgarden 2016, Hélio Castroneves 2017).
The pole-sitter has never finished on the podium at Iowa, let alone won the race. The best finish for the pole-sitter at Iowa is fourth with Scott Dixon in 2008 and 2014, Simon Pagenaud in 2016 and Will Power in 2017.
The pole-sitter has never led the most laps in an Iowa race and the average number of laps led for an Iowa pole-sitter is 14.2727.
The Iowa pole-sitter has failed to lead a lap on three occasions. The most laps led for an Iowa pole-sitter was Hélio Castroneves leading 50 laps in 2015.
The last two years Will Power has started on pole position and in both races he has led 23 laps.
The average starting position for an Iowa winner is 7.5 with a median of 5.5.
The Iowa winner has started outside the top ten four times.
The Iowa winner has started third four times.
The only time the Iowa winner has started on the front row was when Josef Newgarden won from second in 2016.
The average number of lead changes in an Iowa race is 10.1667 with a median of ten.
Last year's Iowa race had a record-low four lead changes. The previous low was six.
The most lead changes in an Iowa race were 16 in 2011, the first Iowa night race.
The average number of cautions in an Iowa race is 4.75 with a median of five. The average number of caution laps is 52.5 with a median of 54.
Last year's Iowa race had a record-low two cautions and a record-low 17 cautions laps. The previous record for fewest cautions was three in 2013 and 2016 and the record for fewest caution laps was 29 in 2013.
The most cautions in an Iowa race were seven in 2014 but the most caution laps was 73 in 2015.
Possible Milestones:
If Scott Dixon takes the green flag he will make his 316th start, moving him ahead of Johnny Rutherford for eighth all-time in starts.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 48 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 44 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Takuma Sato needs to lead 53 laps to reach the 700 laps led milestone.
Ed Carpenter needs to lead 16 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 15 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden makes up for a missed opportunity in 2018 and wins this race but Alexander Rossi finishes second and keeps the championship as tight as he can. Both drivers start in the top five. One of the Carlin cars finish in the top ten as does Tony Kanaan. At least six teams are represented in the top ten. At least two drivers starting outside the top fifteen finish in the top ten and at least two drivers finishing outside the top fifteen finish outside the top fifteen. There will not be a caution in the first 100 laps of the race. Sleeper: Marco Andretti
