Predictions For the 2020s: IndyCar

IndyCar rolls into the 2020s off some momentum from the 2010s.

The previous decade saw a big turnaround for IndyCar. The series ushered in a new chassis, a new engine formula, an engine manufacture that saw out the decade and some of the best racing IndyCar has ever seen.

In 2010, IndyCar opened the season in São Paulo, Scott Dixon had only two championships, Dario Franchitti had only two championships and one Indianapolis 500 victory, Will Power had four career victories, all of them on temporary circuits, Bryan Herta had yet to have a car in a race as a car owner, Panther Racing, Dragon Racing, Conquest Racing, FAZZT Race Team, KV Racing, Newman/Haas Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and HVM Racing were all full-time teams. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Sam Schmidt Motorsports were Indianapolis 500-only teams. The schedule make up was eight ovals, five temporary/street courses and four natural-terrain road courses. There were zero American drivers in the top six of the championship, five full-time Brazilians compared to three full-time Americans, none of the races were worth double points, Izod was newly announced as the series title sponsor and Tony George had resigned from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway board.

Yeah, IndyCar looks a lot different entering 2020. Roger Penske owns the series and Indianapolis Motor Speedway! I think that is all that needs to be said to encapsulate how things have changed. If the 2010s can end with Roger Penske purchasing IndyCar and Indianapolis Motor Speedway who the hell knows what will happen in the 2020s but we are going to try and predict it right here right now.

1. Alexander Rossi and Colton Herta each win a championship
Not really a stretch but this is just taking the temperature of the series at the start of the decade. The two drivers to keep an eye on for the 2020s are Rossi and Herta.

Rossi has nearly won the title the last two years. Herta blew the doors off the series as a 19-year-old. Rossi is 28 years old and Herta cannot legally purchase liquor for another two years. They are going to be around for a bit longer and if they stick around they are both bound to raise the Astor Cup at least once over the next ten years.

The 2020s could be a decade of American dominance IndyCar has not seen since the 1980s. The 2010s brought Americans back to the top of IndyCar. We had Ryan Hunter-Reay win a championship and an Indianapolis 500. Josef Newgarden emerged and won two titles. Then there are the aforementioned Rossi and Herta. Hunter-Reay's close to the finish line of his career but Newgarden, Rossi and Herta are going to be around for a while.

Add to those three an increased in Indy Lights drivers getting full-time IndyCar opportunities and no sign on that trend reversing and the number of Americans on the grid could continue to go up. The first race of the 2010s had three Americans in it out of 24 drivers (Ryan Hunter-Reay, Danica Patrick and Marco Andretti). The final race of the 2010s had 11 Americans in it out of 24 drivers (Herta, Rossi, Newgarden, Hunter-Reay, Graham Rahal, Andretti, Charlie Kimball, Zach Veach, Spencer Pigot, Conor Daly, Santino Ferrucci).

The real question will be does Herta win a title before Rossi? Rossi has had two prime opportunities to win a championship the last two seasons and neither has paid off. After his rookie season, a championship in Herta's sophomore season is a reasonable possible outcome in 2020 and Herta and Rossi will now be teammates.

Could this be a case where Rossi's wait will continue because of the new blood brought into Andretti Autosport? It would be a cruel event if that was to be the case.

2. Scott Dixon surpasses Mario Andretti in victories
Once again, not really a stretch because all Dixon needs to do is win seven more races to take second all-time away from Andretti but after watching Jimmie Johnson's complete fall from grace the last two seasons and with Dixon turning 40 years old during the 2020 season you just have to worry that Dixon will have a similar rapid decline.

I feel good about this season but what about 2021? What about 2022? Seven victories is a lot of victories and Dixon is not going to get those all at once. Hélio Castroneves started the 2010s with three victories in 2010 and then won five races for the rest of the decade with three winless seasons over the next seven years and it led to he being demoted from full-time IndyCar duty after the 2017 season. Granted, eight victories would get Dixon ahead of Andretti but would Dixon really continue if he were coming off two winless seasons at the ages of 44 and 45? I don't think so.

Dixon has only won more than three races in a season once in the 2010s and that was four victories in 2013. The only other times he has won at least four races in a season are 2007, 2008 and 2009.

It is sad to watch any top driver lose it but hold on for three or four seasons thinking he will get it back and that is a fear with Dixon. He is not going to be immune from it. The only hope is he will be proactive and retire one season too early versus two seasons too late.

What is a realistic timeline for Dixon to get to 53 victories?

Let's say he wins at least two races this year, he is always good for at least two victories, and let's say he gets two more the year after that, he would be sitting on 50 victories heading into 2022 and at the age of 41. The 2022 season seems like a good time for Dixon to get three victories.

The only way I see it happening earlier than 2022 is if Dixon busts out another dominant championship seasons in one of the next two years. I am talking about at least four victories but preferably five victories. That would mean the other season would require only two or three victories.

What about A.J. Foyt's all-time record of 67 victories?

Dixon is 21 victories away from tying Foyt. I do not see Dixon running for the entire decade until he is 50. Even if he does, will he still be winning races with regularity when he is 47, 48 and 49 years old?

Dixon won 21 races from 2011 to 2019. He won 24 races over the entirety of the 2010s. Dixon is great. IndyCar is difficult. It is a lot to ask for him to repeat his results of his 30s in his 40s and it is asinine to think Dixon could win 22 races in four or five seasons. The all-time record might be out of reach but second is not that bad.

3. A McLaren car will win a race but not a championship
The 2020s begin with McLaren finally diving feet first into IndyCar.

No more playing around, even though McLaren owns zero percent of the team its branding. No more Indianapolis 500 one-offs. No more shades of the wrong orange. McLaren is here.

Though Schmidt Peterson Motorsports has had rough patches of results the last five seasons the team could still contend for race victories. In IndyCar, if a team is on its A-Game for a race it can pull out a victory and McLaren should be able to do that.

We do not know how long McLaren is going to be in IndyCar. This could be a one-year thing. This could last until 2024. It might make it the entire decade. Though Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew are promising talents, a victory in 2020 is asking a lot. This team just has to get good results in year one but a race victory could fall its way and if it doesn't the team should be in better position for a victory in year two.

As for a championship... since 2003, the only teams to win a championship in this series are Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport. That will eventually change and the name McLaren is good enough to do it but we haven't really seen anything branded McLaren have major motorsports success of late.

A decade is a long time but we need to see McLaren be able to put at least one driver in the top ten of the championship before we can talk about the team fielding championship contenders.

4. A non-Big Three team wins a championship
Since 2003, the only teams to win a championship in this series are Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport and that is going to change because I do not think three teams are going to extend that streak to 27 consecutive years winning a championship.

Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport are going to combine to win majority of the championships this decade. You mind as well set the over/under at 8.5 but there is going to be at least one year when someone else is going to step up and take the title. It isn't going to be McLaren because of the prediction above but somebody else is going to reach the mountaintop.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is really the only team to come the closest and it is really the only team showing signs of being capable of putting together a championship push. Takuma Sato won two races last year. It had Graham Rahal in the title fight in 2015 only for two bad races to close the season to take him out of the fight. Maybe Rahal can capture lightning in the bottle one more time or maybe Sato can do what has always seemed unthinkable.

Outside of RLLR, Dale Coyne Racing showed promise with Sébastien Bourdais but Bourdais is gone and DCR goes through a cycle, two or three seasons of success with two or three seasons of mediocrity to follow. You are not going to win a title that way.

Ed Carpenter Racing has the oval pace but right now there are only five oval races. Unless there is some massive shift in IndyCar and fan behavior the most ovals I can imagine in a season is seven. That still means there are going to be more road and street courses than ovals. ECR was a championship-contending team with Josef Newgarden. There are only so many Newgardens out there. Perhaps ECR has gotten the next one in Rinus VeeKay or maybe its second driver will be that next stud and can take ECR to the top.

Maybe Meyer Shank Racing is the answer. Maybe the single-car effort busts its butt and with Jack Harvey ends up fighting for the top spot. Meyer Shank Racing still has a lot to prove but Shank became a sports car contender, winning the 24 Hours of Daytona and Petit Le Mans and it has won a championship in IMSA's GT Daytona class. Shank is in Honda's good graces. Maybe a few years down the line MSR is leading Honda to another championship.

Outside of that A.J. Foyt Racing is in shambles and hasn't done anything worth a damn in nearly 20 years. Carlin is going through a rough patch and its long-term IndyCar commitment is questionable. DragonSpeed, Juncos Racing and Dreyer & Reinbold Racing all have dreams but it is going to take more than dreams to win a championship.

Perhaps someone else enters if a new manufacture ever decides to join the series and can get to the top of IndyCar. I know there have been spells of dominance in other sports. In Portugal, Benfica, Porto and Sporting Clube de Portugal have combined to win 83 of 85 Portuguese league championships and those three clubs have won every title since 2002. In Scotland, Celtic or Rangers have won every league title since 1986. The United States has the gold medal in men's basketball 15 out of 19 times and eight out of 11 times in women's basketball including the last six tournaments.

I don't want to think IndyCar is going to be like that. I don't want to think we will be heading into 2030 with three teams combining to have won 27 consecutive championships.

5. There will be a driver that wins consecutive championship
Because it has happened in every decade but the 1930s!

IndyCar championship history is a little messy at the start of the 20th century. There was no official championship most years except for 1905 and 1916 and there has been a championship every year since 1920. There were retroactive championship results applied to every season to fill the gaps of the 1900s and 1910s but, like I said, it is messy.

Mess aside, every decade but the 1930s have had a driver win consecutive championships.

In the 1920s, it was Louis Meyer in 1928 and 1929. Meyer picked up his first Indianapolis 500 victory in 1928 and he won the 1929 title almost by default after Ray Keech lost his life at a race in Altoona.

The 1940s only had six seasons because of World War II and there were two different drivers to win consecutive championship. Rex Mays took the title in 1940 and 1941 and Ted Horn won three consecutive from 1946-48.

The 1950s saw Jimmy Bryan take consecutive titles in 1956 and 1957. In the 1956 season, Bryan won four of 12 races but missed a race and closed the season with seven consecutive podium finishes. Similar to Meyer in 1929, Bryan's title that season benefited from his main title rival Pat Flaherty being injured and missing the final six races. In 1957, Bryan had only two victories but his Sam Hanks retired after winning the Indianapolis 500 that year and Jim Rathmann ran only six of 13 races and he was second in the championship.

The 1960s was the decade of A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti. Foyt won consecutive titles in 1960-61 and 1963-64. Andretti followed it with consecutive titles in 1965-66, his second and third seasons in IndyCar.

Joe Leonard became the only man to win the national championship on two- and four-wheels when he won the 1971 IndyCar championship and he followed it with another title in 1972. Later that decade Tom Sneva won the title in 1977 and 1978, Roger Penske's first two IndyCar championships and Penske fired Sneva after the 1978 title! Sneva won that championship without winning a race that season.

In the 1980s, Rick Mears won the CART title in 1981 and 1982 and later that decade Bobby Rahal won the title in 1986 and 1987 with Rahal's first title off the back of his Indianapolis 500 victory.

Alex Zanardi won consecutive titles in 1997 and 1998 and, similar to Andretti, Zanardi did it in his second and third seasons in IndyCar.

The 2000s are all over the place because of the split. Gil de Ferran opened the decade with consecutive CART championships in 2000 and 2001. Sam Hornish, Jr. won the Indy Racing League title in 2001-02. Sébastien Bourdais won four consecutive Champ Car championships from 2004-2007.

After reunification, Dario Franchitti won the 2009 championship and it followed it with consecutive titles to start the 2010s in 2010 and 2011.

If anything, we are due for a consecutive champion. We kind of got used to it after Bourdais and Franchitti and that period was a bit of stretch, possibly making up for the 1930s, but there always seems to be one driver who catches fire and cannot be stopped.

There are plenty of candidates to do it in the 2020s. Newgarden, Rossi, Herta, maybe Dixon can do the one thing that has eluded him and repeat what Franchitti did at the start of the 2010s and win the title in 2020 and 2021, not only giving Dixon consecutive championships but tying him with Foyt for most championships in IndyCar history.

Will Power and Simon Pagenaud are both going to be around for a bit and both could win consecutive championship, especially if they remain with Team Penske. Could Patricio O'Ward develop into that level of driver? Possibly. Maybe Rinus VeeKay could be that driver. How are we completely overlooking Felix Rosenqvist? Rosenqvist could easily do it with Ganassi.

IndyCar is a difficult series. We have had plenty of seasons with nine, ten, 11 different winners and we have had plenty of seasons where six or seven teams have won a race. In those conditions it is difficult to pinpoint anyone driver who could win consecutive championships but history shows us it is bound to happen. The reverse would tell us we are due for another decade where there are no repeat champions. Someone is going to step up and put himself or herself in the history book.

6. There will be a new Japanese driver that makes at least 50 starts
One thing to consider in 2020 is Takuma Sato is turning 43 years old next week and his time in IndyCar is coming to a close.

Sato is not going to be leaving us immediately but you have to think it will be soon, especially when you see Tony Kanaan's career coming to an end and Sébastien Bourdais moving to sports cars and Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves already in sports cars.

Sato has had a good IndyCar career. He won an Indianapolis 500. What else could you ask for? That alone cannot make Sato's career great. His career will be remembered for the amount of accidents and poor results as much as it will be for his Indianapolis 500 victory. Someone down the line will make an argument that Sato being one of the worst Indianapolis 500 winners of all-time. I am not going to make that argument but somebody will.

Honda will want another Japanese driver in IndyCar and I am ready for it. I was hoping Naoki Yamamoto would be that driver but as of now he does not seem interested. That is ok. There is going to be at least one Japanese driver who will take a crack at it and when that driver comes over that driver will be here for a while.

Of the 12 Japanese drivers to start an IndyCar race, six of them have made 50 starts or more. Sato has made the most all-time, 169 starts. Hire Matsushita is second on 117 starts. Tora Takagi is third on 70 starts with Kosuke Matsuura on 65 starts, Shinji Nakano on 58 starts and Hideki Mutoh on 53 starts.

I do not know when that new driver is coming, I do not know who that new driver will be but I think that driver will get at least three seasons in IndyCar. With IndyCar set on a 17-race schedule, three years without missing a start would be 51 starts. Perhaps IndyCar's schedule grows by a race or two over the 2020s and it would make it easier to reach 50 starts.

7. At least three new countries are represented on the Indianapolis 500 grid
In the 2010s, the Indianapolis 500 had its first Russian driver (Mikhail Aleshin) and Emirati driver (Ed Jones).

In the 2000s, South Africa (Tomas Scheckter), the Czech Republic (Tomáš Enge) and Venezuela (Milka Duno and later E.J. Viso) got their first Indianapolis 500 starters.

In the 1990s, Japan (first with Hiro Matsushita), Sweden (first with Stefan Johansson) and Chile (Eliseo Salazar) were all the new countries to the Indianapolis 500.

It is 2020 and the two largest countries in the world, China and India, have not had an Indianapolis 500 starter. China came close in 2011 with Ho-Pin Tung before a qualifying accident. There really hasn't been an Indian driver close to being on the grid. Amazingly, there has not been a Chinese driver to start a Formula One grand prix either.

Motorsports is much more international diverse than it has ever been. Twenty different countries had an Indianapolis 500 starter in the 2010s. In Formula One, the 2010s the first Russian driver in series history, the first Indonesian driver in series history, the first Monegasque driver since 1994, the first Belgian driver since 1994, the first Swedish driver since 1991, the first Venezuelan driver since 1984, the first New Zealander drive since 1984, the first Mexican driver since 1981 and the first Thai driver since 1954.

Things are going to get more diverse in the 2020s. One or both of China and India or are going to have an Indianapolis 500 starter for the first time ever. There has never been a Danish driver in the Indianapolis 500. Can you say hello Kevin Magnussen? There has never been a Portuguese driver in the Indianapolis 500. Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Uruguay, Estonia, Poland, Guatemala, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Cyprus and Greece are just a few of the countries that have yet to have a participant in the Indianapolis 500.

Most of these countries have had a notable driver in a junior series somewhere around the world in recent times. It is not crazy to think at some point this decade a few of these countries will produce a driver whose path will take them to Indianapolis.

8. A driver will win an Indy Lights championship and an IndyCar championship in this decade
As said above, the Road to Indy system is working and it is becoming the go-to place for IndyCar teams when it comes to hiring a new driver.

The Road to Indy was officially established prior to the 2010 season. Since then the only Indy Lights champion not to run an IndyCar race was 2010 champion Jean-Karl Vernay. Of the 24 drivers to win a Road to Indy championship from 2010 to 2019 eleven of those drivers have not made an IndyCar start but those nine drivers include Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay, two drivers who will be making IndyCar debuts in 2020 and that also includes 2019 U.S. F2000 champion Braden Eves, who will be moving to Indy Pro 2000 in 2020 and 2019 Indy Pro 2000 champion Kyle Kirkwood, who will be moving to Indy Lights in 2020 and if things continue going the way they have been the last two years Kirkwood will be in IndyCar in 2021.

The one issue though is while nine consecutive Indy Lights champions have made an IndyCar start only one of those nine champions has won an IndyCar race, Josef Newgarden, the 2011 Indy Lights champion. In fact, Newgarden is the only Road to Indy champion from the 2010s period to win an IndyCar race.

That is not good and Newgarden's success is propping up the rest of the drivers. That doesn't mean there haven't been good drivers in IndyCar. Sage Karam is a firecracker and has had some strong IndyCar races. Gabby Chaves is an incredibly smart driver. Spencer Pigot has the pace. Ed Jones stood out with Dale Coyne Racing and he had a couple podium finishes with Chip Ganassi Racing. The verdict is still out on Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew.

The Road to Indy results are good but not great but I think they will get better. It is going to be tough for whoever is the 2024 Indy Lights champion to win the next four years. Newgarden, Rossi, Herta, Power, Pagenaud and maybe Dixon will all still be around. At that point Rosenqvist, O'Ward, Askew and VeeKay could all be race winners and pushing for titles.

We have used history a lot when making these predictions and that is the case again. There was an Indy Lights champion from the 2000s that won a title in the 2010s: Scott Dixon, who was the 2000 Indy Lights champion. There were two Indy Lights champions from the 1990s that won a title in the 2000s: Tony Kanaan and Cristiana da Matta, the 1997 and 1998 champions respectively.

If there is one early favorite to do fulfill this prediction it is Kyle Kirkwood. Kirkwood has won the U.S. F2000 championship and Indy Pro 2000 championship in consecutive seasons. In 2018, Kirkwood won 28 of 32 races he started between U.S. F2000, F3 Americas and the IMSA Michelin Encore. In 2019, Kirkwood won nine of his 16 Indy Pro 2000 starts and he made two starts in the Euroformula Open Championship with finishes of ninth and sixth at the Monza finale. Kirkwood has already won a race in 2020! He won the IMSA Prototype Challenge season opener at Daytona.

I feel really good about penciling Kirkwood in for the 2020 Indy Lights championship and making his IndyCar debut at 22 years old in 2021. From there he will have nine years to win an IndyCar championship. It could happen.

9. IndyCar will return to another track that hosted an IndyCar race but didn't host an IndyCar race in the 2010s
The fad has been IndyCar returning to long-forgotten venues.

In 2016, Phoenix returned after last hosting a race in 2005. In 2016, Road America returned after last hosting a race in 2007. In 2017, Gateway returned after last hosting a race in 2003. In 2018, Portland returned after last hosting a race in 2007. In 2019, Laguna Seca returned after last hosting a race in 2004. In 2020, Richmond will return after last hosting a race in 2009.

IndyCar always has at least one venue that is on life-support. It is typically an oval. When a race is on life-support, IndyCar has to look elsewhere and there are a lot of tracks out there that IndyCar didn't visit in the 2010s that could return at some point over the next ten years.

Let's start with Mexico City because if Patricio O'Ward busts out IndyCar is going to have to go to Mexico City. IndyCar was in talks with a return to Mexico City prior to the 2018 season. IndyCar hasn't gone to Mexico City since 2007 when it hosted the Champ Car finale. This is the clubhouse leader.

IndyCar has also been in talks with Surfers Paradise about a possible return. That was cooled down but a return to Surfers Paradise would be the first time IndyCar has been there since 2008.

This is IndyCar and there is going to be an oval race that is in trouble. Iowa is having a lot problems. IndyCar has done a great job making sure it does not go below five oval races. Indianapolis is Indianapolis. Gateway is strong. Texas is always threatening to leave but never does (what a kind lover) and then there is Richmond and who knows how that will.

What is on the edge that could return? What ovals could fulfill this prediction?

Michigan last hosted IndyCar in the 2007 season. Atlanta last hosted IndyCar in 2001. Charlotte last hosted IndyCar in 1999.

The problem is three International Speedway Corporation ovals dropped off the schedule after the 2010 season so Homestead, Chicagoland and Kansas would not fulfill this prediction.

10. IndyCar will have at least one flyaway race
IndyCar has been talking about adding a flyaway race or winter series for almost seven years now and have not gotten one flyaway race. However, what is the likelihood that will continue for another ten years?

If IndyCar keeps working on it the series is bound to get conned into another bad contract from somewhere in the world. Although, Roger Penske is now in charge and he does see the value in flyaway races so perhaps this will never happen but Mark Miles has been working on it for a while and perhaps Penske lets Miles see this out.

There has to be one time when IndyCar gets on base with one of these flyaway races. I am not saying it is going to be successful. It just has to happen once, whether it be Dubai, Brazil, Japan, South Africa or somewhere in Europe.

This kind of piggybacks off the prediction above because a return to Surfers Paradise would fulfill this prediction. Mexico City would not. This has to be a race where IndyCar loads up a plane and a Mexico City race would likely see the teams driving south.

That is it! Four sets of predictions are complete. Feel free to check out the predictions for sports cars, Formula One and NASCAR. A few races are already in the books and plenty more are to come in 2020 and the rest of the decade.