IndyCar rolls into the 2020s off some momentum from the 2010s.
The previous decade saw a big turnaround for IndyCar. The series ushered in a new chassis, a new engine formula, an engine manufacture that saw out the decade and some of the best racing IndyCar has ever seen.
In 2010, IndyCar opened the season in São Paulo, Scott Dixon had only two championships, Dario Franchitti had only two championships and one Indianapolis 500 victory, Will Power had four career victories, all of them on temporary circuits, Bryan Herta had yet to have a car in a race as a car owner, Panther Racing, Dragon Racing, Conquest Racing, FAZZT Race Team, KV Racing, Newman/Haas Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and HVM Racing were all full-time teams. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Sam Schmidt Motorsports were Indianapolis 500-only teams. The schedule make up was eight ovals, five temporary/street courses and four natural-terrain road courses. There were zero American drivers in the top six of the championship, five full-time Brazilians compared to three full-time Americans, none of the races were worth double points, Izod was newly announced as the series title sponsor and Tony George had resigned from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway board.
Yeah, IndyCar looks a lot different entering 2020. Roger Penske owns the series and Indianapolis Motor Speedway! I think that is all that needs to be said to encapsulate how things have changed. If the 2010s can end with Roger Penske purchasing IndyCar and Indianapolis Motor Speedway who the hell knows what will happen in the 2020s but we are going to try and predict it right here right now.
1. Alexander Rossi and Colton Herta each win a championship
Not really a stretch but this is just taking the temperature of the series at the start of the decade. The two drivers to keep an eye on for the 2020s are Rossi and Herta.
Rossi has nearly won the title the last two years. Herta blew the doors off the series as a 19-year-old. Rossi is 28 years old and Herta cannot legally purchase liquor for another two years. They are going to be around for a bit longer and if they stick around they are both bound to raise the Astor Cup at least once over the next ten years.
The 2020s could be a decade of American dominance IndyCar has not seen since the 1980s. The 2010s brought Americans back to the top of IndyCar. We had Ryan Hunter-Reay win a championship and an Indianapolis 500. Josef Newgarden emerged and won two titles. Then there are the aforementioned Rossi and Herta. Hunter-Reay's close to the finish line of his career but Newgarden, Rossi and Herta are going to be around for a while.
Add to those three an increased in Indy Lights drivers getting full-time IndyCar opportunities and no sign on that trend reversing and the number of Americans on the grid could continue to go up. The first race of the 2010s had three Americans in it out of 24 drivers (Ryan Hunter-Reay, Danica Patrick and Marco Andretti). The final race of the 2010s had 11 Americans in it out of 24 drivers (Herta, Rossi, Newgarden, Hunter-Reay, Graham Rahal, Andretti, Charlie Kimball, Zach Veach, Spencer Pigot, Conor Daly, Santino Ferrucci).
The real question will be does Herta win a title before Rossi? Rossi has had two prime opportunities to win a championship the last two seasons and neither has paid off. After his rookie season, a championship in Herta's sophomore season is a reasonable possible outcome in 2020 and Herta and Rossi will now be teammates.
Could this be a case where Rossi's wait will continue because of the new blood brought into Andretti Autosport? It would be a cruel event if that was to be the case.
2. Scott Dixon surpasses Mario Andretti in victories
Once again, not really a stretch because all Dixon needs to do is win seven more races to take second all-time away from Andretti but after watching Jimmie Johnson's complete fall from grace the last two seasons and with Dixon turning 40 years old during the 2020 season you just have to worry that Dixon will have a similar rapid decline.
I feel good about this season but what about 2021? What about 2022? Seven victories is a lot of victories and Dixon is not going to get those all at once. Hélio Castroneves started the 2010s with three victories in 2010 and then won five races for the rest of the decade with three winless seasons over the next seven years and it led to he being demoted from full-time IndyCar duty after the 2017 season. Granted, eight victories would get Dixon ahead of Andretti but would Dixon really continue if he were coming off two winless seasons at the ages of 44 and 45? I don't think so.
Dixon has only won more than three races in a season once in the 2010s and that was four victories in 2013. The only other times he has won at least four races in a season are 2007, 2008 and 2009.
It is sad to watch any top driver lose it but hold on for three or four seasons thinking he will get it back and that is a fear with Dixon. He is not going to be immune from it. The only hope is he will be proactive and retire one season too early versus two seasons too late.
What is a realistic timeline for Dixon to get to 53 victories?
Let's say he wins at least two races this year, he is always good for at least two victories, and let's say he gets two more the year after that, he would be sitting on 50 victories heading into 2022 and at the age of 41. The 2022 season seems like a good time for Dixon to get three victories.
The only way I see it happening earlier than 2022 is if Dixon busts out another dominant championship seasons in one of the next two years. I am talking about at least four victories but preferably five victories. That would mean the other season would require only two or three victories.
What about A.J. Foyt's all-time record of 67 victories?
Dixon is 21 victories away from tying Foyt. I do not see Dixon running for the entire decade until he is 50. Even if he does, will he still be winning races with regularity when he is 47, 48 and 49 years old?
Dixon won 21 races from 2011 to 2019. He won 24 races over the entirety of the 2010s. Dixon is great. IndyCar is difficult. It is a lot to ask for him to repeat his results of his 30s in his 40s and it is asinine to think Dixon could win 22 races in four or five seasons. The all-time record might be out of reach but second is not that bad.
3. A McLaren car will win a race but not a championship
The 2020s begin with McLaren finally diving feet first into IndyCar.
No more playing around, even though McLaren owns zero percent of the team its branding. No more Indianapolis 500 one-offs. No more shades of the wrong orange. McLaren is here.
Though Schmidt Peterson Motorsports has had rough patches of results the last five seasons the team could still contend for race victories. In IndyCar, if a team is on its A-Game for a race it can pull out a victory and McLaren should be able to do that.
We do not know how long McLaren is going to be in IndyCar. This could be a one-year thing. This could last until 2024. It might make it the entire decade. Though Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew are promising talents, a victory in 2020 is asking a lot. This team just has to get good results in year one but a race victory could fall its way and if it doesn't the team should be in better position for a victory in year two.
As for a championship... since 2003, the only teams to win a championship in this series are Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport. That will eventually change and the name McLaren is good enough to do it but we haven't really seen anything branded McLaren have major motorsports success of late.
A decade is a long time but we need to see McLaren be able to put at least one driver in the top ten of the championship before we can talk about the team fielding championship contenders.
4. A non-Big Three team wins a championship
Since 2003, the only teams to win a championship in this series are Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport and that is going to change because I do not think three teams are going to extend that streak to 27 consecutive years winning a championship.
Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport are going to combine to win majority of the championships this decade. You mind as well set the over/under at 8.5 but there is going to be at least one year when someone else is going to step up and take the title. It isn't going to be McLaren because of the prediction above but somebody else is going to reach the mountaintop.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is really the only team to come the closest and it is really the only team showing signs of being capable of putting together a championship push. Takuma Sato won two races last year. It had Graham Rahal in the title fight in 2015 only for two bad races to close the season to take him out of the fight. Maybe Rahal can capture lightning in the bottle one more time or maybe Sato can do what has always seemed unthinkable.
Outside of RLLR, Dale Coyne Racing showed promise with Sébastien Bourdais but Bourdais is gone and DCR goes through a cycle, two or three seasons of success with two or three seasons of mediocrity to follow. You are not going to win a title that way.
Ed Carpenter Racing has the oval pace but right now there are only five oval races. Unless there is some massive shift in IndyCar and fan behavior the most ovals I can imagine in a season is seven. That still means there are going to be more road and street courses than ovals. ECR was a championship-contending team with Josef Newgarden. There are only so many Newgardens out there. Perhaps ECR has gotten the next one in Rinus VeeKay or maybe its second driver will be that next stud and can take ECR to the top.
Maybe Meyer Shank Racing is the answer. Maybe the single-car effort busts its butt and with Jack Harvey ends up fighting for the top spot. Meyer Shank Racing still has a lot to prove but Shank became a sports car contender, winning the 24 Hours of Daytona and Petit Le Mans and it has won a championship in IMSA's GT Daytona class. Shank is in Honda's good graces. Maybe a few years down the line MSR is leading Honda to another championship.
Outside of that A.J. Foyt Racing is in shambles and hasn't done anything worth a damn in nearly 20 years. Carlin is going through a rough patch and its long-term IndyCar commitment is questionable. DragonSpeed, Juncos Racing and Dreyer & Reinbold Racing all have dreams but it is going to take more than dreams to win a championship.
Perhaps someone else enters if a new manufacture ever decides to join the series and can get to the top of IndyCar. I know there have been spells of dominance in other sports. In Portugal, Benfica, Porto and Sporting Clube de Portugal have combined to win 83 of 85 Portuguese league championships and those three clubs have won every title since 2002. In Scotland, Celtic or Rangers have won every league title since 1986. The United States has the gold medal in men's basketball 15 out of 19 times and eight out of 11 times in women's basketball including the last six tournaments.
I don't want to think IndyCar is going to be like that. I don't want to think we will be heading into 2030 with three teams combining to have won 27 consecutive championships.
5. There will be a driver that wins consecutive championship
Because it has happened in every decade but the 1930s!
IndyCar championship history is a little messy at the start of the 20th century. There was no official championship most years except for 1905 and 1916 and there has been a championship every year since 1920. There were retroactive championship results applied to every season to fill the gaps of the 1900s and 1910s but, like I said, it is messy.
Mess aside, every decade but the 1930s have had a driver win consecutive championships.
In the 1920s, it was Louis Meyer in 1928 and 1929. Meyer picked up his first Indianapolis 500 victory in 1928 and he won the 1929 title almost by default after Ray Keech lost his life at a race in Altoona.
The 1940s only had six seasons because of World War II and there were two different drivers to win consecutive championship. Rex Mays took the title in 1940 and 1941 and Ted Horn won three consecutive from 1946-48.
The 1950s saw Jimmy Bryan take consecutive titles in 1956 and 1957. In the 1956 season, Bryan won four of 12 races but missed a race and closed the season with seven consecutive podium finishes. Similar to Meyer in 1929, Bryan's title that season benefited from his main title rival Pat Flaherty being injured and missing the final six races. In 1957, Bryan had only two victories but his Sam Hanks retired after winning the Indianapolis 500 that year and Jim Rathmann ran only six of 13 races and he was second in the championship.
The 1960s was the decade of A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti. Foyt won consecutive titles in 1960-61 and 1963-64. Andretti followed it with consecutive titles in 1965-66, his second and third seasons in IndyCar.
Joe Leonard became the only man to win the national championship on two- and four-wheels when he won the 1971 IndyCar championship and he followed it with another title in 1972. Later that decade Tom Sneva won the title in 1977 and 1978, Roger Penske's first two IndyCar championships and Penske fired Sneva after the 1978 title! Sneva won that championship without winning a race that season.
In the 1980s, Rick Mears won the CART title in 1981 and 1982 and later that decade Bobby Rahal won the title in 1986 and 1987 with Rahal's first title off the back of his Indianapolis 500 victory.
Alex Zanardi won consecutive titles in 1997 and 1998 and, similar to Andretti, Zanardi did it in his second and third seasons in IndyCar.
The 2000s are all over the place because of the split. Gil de Ferran opened the decade with consecutive CART championships in 2000 and 2001. Sam Hornish, Jr. won the Indy Racing League title in 2001-02. Sébastien Bourdais won four consecutive Champ Car championships from 2004-2007.
After reunification, Dario Franchitti won the 2009 championship and it followed it with consecutive titles to start the 2010s in 2010 and 2011.
If anything, we are due for a consecutive champion. We kind of got used to it after Bourdais and Franchitti and that period was a bit of stretch, possibly making up for the 1930s, but there always seems to be one driver who catches fire and cannot be stopped.
There are plenty of candidates to do it in the 2020s. Newgarden, Rossi, Herta, maybe Dixon can do the one thing that has eluded him and repeat what Franchitti did at the start of the 2010s and win the title in 2020 and 2021, not only giving Dixon consecutive championships but tying him with Foyt for most championships in IndyCar history.
Will Power and Simon Pagenaud are both going to be around for a bit and both could win consecutive championship, especially if they remain with Team Penske. Could Patricio O'Ward develop into that level of driver? Possibly. Maybe Rinus VeeKay could be that driver. How are we completely overlooking Felix Rosenqvist? Rosenqvist could easily do it with Ganassi.
IndyCar is a difficult series. We have had plenty of seasons with nine, ten, 11 different winners and we have had plenty of seasons where six or seven teams have won a race. In those conditions it is difficult to pinpoint anyone driver who could win consecutive championships but history shows us it is bound to happen. The reverse would tell us we are due for another decade where there are no repeat champions. Someone is going to step up and put himself or herself in the history book.
6. There will be a new Japanese driver that makes at least 50 starts
One thing to consider in 2020 is Takuma Sato is turning 43 years old next week and his time in IndyCar is coming to a close.
Sato is not going to be leaving us immediately but you have to think it will be soon, especially when you see Tony Kanaan's career coming to an end and Sébastien Bourdais moving to sports cars and Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves already in sports cars.
Sato has had a good IndyCar career. He won an Indianapolis 500. What else could you ask for? That alone cannot make Sato's career great. His career will be remembered for the amount of accidents and poor results as much as it will be for his Indianapolis 500 victory. Someone down the line will make an argument that Sato being one of the worst Indianapolis 500 winners of all-time. I am not going to make that argument but somebody will.
Honda will want another Japanese driver in IndyCar and I am ready for it. I was hoping Naoki Yamamoto would be that driver but as of now he does not seem interested. That is ok. There is going to be at least one Japanese driver who will take a crack at it and when that driver comes over that driver will be here for a while.
Of the 12 Japanese drivers to start an IndyCar race, six of them have made 50 starts or more. Sato has made the most all-time, 169 starts. Hire Matsushita is second on 117 starts. Tora Takagi is third on 70 starts with Kosuke Matsuura on 65 starts, Shinji Nakano on 58 starts and Hideki Mutoh on 53 starts.
I do not know when that new driver is coming, I do not know who that new driver will be but I think that driver will get at least three seasons in IndyCar. With IndyCar set on a 17-race schedule, three years without missing a start would be 51 starts. Perhaps IndyCar's schedule grows by a race or two over the 2020s and it would make it easier to reach 50 starts.
7. At least three new countries are represented on the Indianapolis 500 grid
In the 2010s, the Indianapolis 500 had its first Russian driver (Mikhail Aleshin) and Emirati driver (Ed Jones).
In the 2000s, South Africa (Tomas Scheckter), the Czech Republic (Tomáš Enge) and Venezuela (Milka Duno and later E.J. Viso) got their first Indianapolis 500 starters.
In the 1990s, Japan (first with Hiro Matsushita), Sweden (first with Stefan Johansson) and Chile (Eliseo Salazar) were all the new countries to the Indianapolis 500.
It is 2020 and the two largest countries in the world, China and India, have not had an Indianapolis 500 starter. China came close in 2011 with Ho-Pin Tung before a qualifying accident. There really hasn't been an Indian driver close to being on the grid. Amazingly, there has not been a Chinese driver to start a Formula One grand prix either.
Motorsports is much more international diverse than it has ever been. Twenty different countries had an Indianapolis 500 starter in the 2010s. In Formula One, the 2010s the first Russian driver in series history, the first Indonesian driver in series history, the first Monegasque driver since 1994, the first Belgian driver since 1994, the first Swedish driver since 1991, the first Venezuelan driver since 1984, the first New Zealander drive since 1984, the first Mexican driver since 1981 and the first Thai driver since 1954.
Things are going to get more diverse in the 2020s. One or both of China and India or are going to have an Indianapolis 500 starter for the first time ever. There has never been a Danish driver in the Indianapolis 500. Can you say hello Kevin Magnussen? There has never been a Portuguese driver in the Indianapolis 500. Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Uruguay, Estonia, Poland, Guatemala, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Cyprus and Greece are just a few of the countries that have yet to have a participant in the Indianapolis 500.
Most of these countries have had a notable driver in a junior series somewhere around the world in recent times. It is not crazy to think at some point this decade a few of these countries will produce a driver whose path will take them to Indianapolis.
8. A driver will win an Indy Lights championship and an IndyCar championship in this decade
As said above, the Road to Indy system is working and it is becoming the go-to place for IndyCar teams when it comes to hiring a new driver.
The Road to Indy was officially established prior to the 2010 season. Since then the only Indy Lights champion not to run an IndyCar race was 2010 champion Jean-Karl Vernay. Of the 24 drivers to win a Road to Indy championship from 2010 to 2019 eleven of those drivers have not made an IndyCar start but those nine drivers include Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay, two drivers who will be making IndyCar debuts in 2020 and that also includes 2019 U.S. F2000 champion Braden Eves, who will be moving to Indy Pro 2000 in 2020 and 2019 Indy Pro 2000 champion Kyle Kirkwood, who will be moving to Indy Lights in 2020 and if things continue going the way they have been the last two years Kirkwood will be in IndyCar in 2021.
The one issue though is while nine consecutive Indy Lights champions have made an IndyCar start only one of those nine champions has won an IndyCar race, Josef Newgarden, the 2011 Indy Lights champion. In fact, Newgarden is the only Road to Indy champion from the 2010s period to win an IndyCar race.
That is not good and Newgarden's success is propping up the rest of the drivers. That doesn't mean there haven't been good drivers in IndyCar. Sage Karam is a firecracker and has had some strong IndyCar races. Gabby Chaves is an incredibly smart driver. Spencer Pigot has the pace. Ed Jones stood out with Dale Coyne Racing and he had a couple podium finishes with Chip Ganassi Racing. The verdict is still out on Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew.
The Road to Indy results are good but not great but I think they will get better. It is going to be tough for whoever is the 2024 Indy Lights champion to win the next four years. Newgarden, Rossi, Herta, Power, Pagenaud and maybe Dixon will all still be around. At that point Rosenqvist, O'Ward, Askew and VeeKay could all be race winners and pushing for titles.
We have used history a lot when making these predictions and that is the case again. There was an Indy Lights champion from the 2000s that won a title in the 2010s: Scott Dixon, who was the 2000 Indy Lights champion. There were two Indy Lights champions from the 1990s that won a title in the 2000s: Tony Kanaan and Cristiana da Matta, the 1997 and 1998 champions respectively.
If there is one early favorite to do fulfill this prediction it is Kyle Kirkwood. Kirkwood has won the U.S. F2000 championship and Indy Pro 2000 championship in consecutive seasons. In 2018, Kirkwood won 28 of 32 races he started between U.S. F2000, F3 Americas and the IMSA Michelin Encore. In 2019, Kirkwood won nine of his 16 Indy Pro 2000 starts and he made two starts in the Euroformula Open Championship with finishes of ninth and sixth at the Monza finale. Kirkwood has already won a race in 2020! He won the IMSA Prototype Challenge season opener at Daytona.
I feel really good about penciling Kirkwood in for the 2020 Indy Lights championship and making his IndyCar debut at 22 years old in 2021. From there he will have nine years to win an IndyCar championship. It could happen.
9. IndyCar will return to another track that hosted an IndyCar race but didn't host an IndyCar race in the 2010s
The fad has been IndyCar returning to long-forgotten venues.
In 2016, Phoenix returned after last hosting a race in 2005. In 2016, Road America returned after last hosting a race in 2007. In 2017, Gateway returned after last hosting a race in 2003. In 2018, Portland returned after last hosting a race in 2007. In 2019, Laguna Seca returned after last hosting a race in 2004. In 2020, Richmond will return after last hosting a race in 2009.
IndyCar always has at least one venue that is on life-support. It is typically an oval. When a race is on life-support, IndyCar has to look elsewhere and there are a lot of tracks out there that IndyCar didn't visit in the 2010s that could return at some point over the next ten years.
Let's start with Mexico City because if Patricio O'Ward busts out IndyCar is going to have to go to Mexico City. IndyCar was in talks with a return to Mexico City prior to the 2018 season. IndyCar hasn't gone to Mexico City since 2007 when it hosted the Champ Car finale. This is the clubhouse leader.
IndyCar has also been in talks with Surfers Paradise about a possible return. That was cooled down but a return to Surfers Paradise would be the first time IndyCar has been there since 2008.
This is IndyCar and there is going to be an oval race that is in trouble. Iowa is having a lot problems. IndyCar has done a great job making sure it does not go below five oval races. Indianapolis is Indianapolis. Gateway is strong. Texas is always threatening to leave but never does (what a kind lover) and then there is Richmond and who knows how that will.
What is on the edge that could return? What ovals could fulfill this prediction?
Michigan last hosted IndyCar in the 2007 season. Atlanta last hosted IndyCar in 2001. Charlotte last hosted IndyCar in 1999.
The problem is three International Speedway Corporation ovals dropped off the schedule after the 2010 season so Homestead, Chicagoland and Kansas would not fulfill this prediction.
10. IndyCar will have at least one flyaway race
IndyCar has been talking about adding a flyaway race or winter series for almost seven years now and have not gotten one flyaway race. However, what is the likelihood that will continue for another ten years?
If IndyCar keeps working on it the series is bound to get conned into another bad contract from somewhere in the world. Although, Roger Penske is now in charge and he does see the value in flyaway races so perhaps this will never happen but Mark Miles has been working on it for a while and perhaps Penske lets Miles see this out.
There has to be one time when IndyCar gets on base with one of these flyaway races. I am not saying it is going to be successful. It just has to happen once, whether it be Dubai, Brazil, Japan, South Africa or somewhere in Europe.
This kind of piggybacks off the prediction above because a return to Surfers Paradise would fulfill this prediction. Mexico City would not. This has to be a race where IndyCar loads up a plane and a Mexico City race would likely see the teams driving south.
That is it! Four sets of predictions are complete. Feel free to check out the predictions for sports cars, Formula One and NASCAR. A few races are already in the books and plenty more are to come in 2020 and the rest of the decade.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
Showing posts with label Predictions For the 2020s. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions For the 2020s. Show all posts
Thursday, January 23, 2020
Friday, January 17, 2020
Predictions For the 2020s: NASCAR
NASCAR enters the 2020s with Kyle Busch coming off his second Cup championship, a new sponsorship model and the Grand National Series moving to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Oh boy, before we get into that let's look at where we have coming. When the 2010s started, Jimmie Johnson had done the unprecedented and won four consecutive Cup championships. Johnson immediately raised the bar and made it five consecutive titles. Martin Truex, Jr. had not won a race in the previous two seasons entering the decade and he was switching over from Chevrolet and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing to Toyota and Michael Waltrip Racing. Joey Logano was at Joe Gibbs Racing. Kasey Kahne was at Richard Petty Motorsports. Brad Keselowski had just joined Team Penske. Red Bull Racing existed.
Elsewhere in NASCAR, 2010 would see the introduction of Road America to the Grand National Series schedule. Montreal was on that schedule. Indianapolis Raceway Park had a Grand National Series and a Truck race. Justin Allgaier was a Team Penske development driver. Ron Hornaday had just won his fourth Truck title. Matt Crafton had one Truck Series victory. There was no dirt race and Narain Karthikeyan was the Truck Series' most popular driver?
NASCAR looks different entering the 2020s. In 2010, a race victory would get you as much as 195 points. Leading laps could get you bonus points. Now we have stages, the Chase has evolved into the Playoffs, has spread to the lower two national series and a victory, just one victory, in the regular season gets you a playoff spot pretty much regardless of how you do in the rest of the races.
NASCAR is pretty unpredictable or at least it is predictable it will do something insane. How can you ever make ten predictions over the course of a decade knowing that? We are going to take a crack at it.
1. There will be at least one tweak to the playoff format
This is almost a slam-dunk. NASCAR fools around with how it determines its champions more than a pubescent boy with his junk. NASCAR is constantly tinkering, chasing the ultimate high and never ending up satisfied.
Something is going to change. Either more drivers are going to be allowed in or fewer drivers are going to be allowed in. Or playoff points are going to be abolished or playoff points are going to be increased. Or there will be more rounds or there will be fewer rounds.
I don't know what is going to happen but something is going to happen.
Here are two wonky tweaks I have come up with:
A. If a driver sweeps a round in the playoffs that driver gets a bye. For example: If a driver sweeps round of 16 races that driver gets a bye through the round of 12 and is guaranteed a spot in the round of eight. If a driver sweeps the round of 12 that driver clinches a spot in the Championship 4. If a driver sweeps the round of 8 that driver is the champion.
Think about how much more meaningful winning would be if a driver knew winning three consecutive races would be a magic ticket to more. It would also bring back the possibility of the championship being locked up early. Instead of the winner at the first race in the round of 8 cruising for two weeks that driver could seal the deal a weekend early. That penultimate race of the season would see seven drivers trying to win and clinch a spot but possibly seven drivers trying to prevent one driver from making the finale a dead-rubber. That would be fun to watch.
B. The second tweak involves qualifying for the playoffs and I could see something where the final race of the regular season, race 26, being more of a play-in game. After race 25, all race winners and the however many drivers needed to fill the top 12 are locked into the playoffs. At race 26, every driver 13th to 30th after race 25 will be competing for the final four playoff spots. The top four finishers of those 18 drivers make the playoffs.
It sounds crazy but think about this entire playoff garbage to begin with: You could be 28th in the championship, fall ass backward into a victory in a rain-shortened race and all of a sudden have a shot to win the championship and finish no worse than 16th in the championship. If NASCAR is already doing that making the 26th race some sort of free-for-all where anyone 13th to 30th could make it and not even have to win the race but get in with an eighth place finish, that driver's first top ten finish of the season in all likelihood, is very possible of happening.
2. There will be a doubleheader weekend at a track other than Pocono
NASCAR is trying the doubleheader at Pocono this year and I think it is something we are going to see more of double the road to give teams additional weeks off. It makes more sense than mid-week races.
Let's consider the NASCAR Cup schedule for a moment:
There are 13 tracks that host two Cup races. Of those 13 tracks, only four of those tracks do not have playoff race. Those tracks are Daytona, Michigan, Dover and Pocono.
The other nine all host playoff races: Bristol, Richmond, Las Vegas, Talladega, Charlotte, Kansas, Texas, Martinsville and Phoenix.
If a track is going to host a doubleheader it has to have two races and it is not going to take place in the playoffs.
Pocono already has a doubleheader and that leaves Daytona, Michigan and Dover.
Daytona is never going to host a doubleheader. It is going to host the season opener and the regular season finale until enough people are alienated and the race is moved back to Independence Day weekend like NASCAR did with the Southern 500 and Labor Day weekend.
That leaves Michigan and Dover and it actually makes sense for those two tracks to host doubleheaders.
Neither track has two overflowing weekends in terms of attendance. It could be argued Michigan and Dover are the two tracks where seat removal has been the most notable over the last ten years.
Dover could become a doubleheader in the spring, let's say May, you already have Pocono at the end of June and Michigan could become a doubleheader in August. That would give the teams two additional off weekends.
NASCAR could either leave those off weekends in June and August where the vacated Michigan and Dover weekends would be or NASCAR could leave one in the season and move the other to the offseason and moving the season finale into October or NASCAR could move both off weekends to the offseason and the NASCAR season could be over say on October 22, 2023.
Whether or not NASCAR goes to the lengths of having three doubleheaders in a season is up for question but I do not believe 2020 is the only time we will see a doubleheader and I do not believe Pocono will be the only track that tries it.
3. At least once will the Cup champion also be the most popular driver
This is hedging that Chase Elliott will do what Dale Earnhardt, Jr. couldn't do and win a Cup championship.
Elliott should probably win one championship in the 2020s. Hendrick Motorsports cannot stay down forever and Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske are not going to split all the titles (although they could).
If there Chevrolet had to choose one driver to bring Chevrolet back to the top it would be Elliott.
This is also taking into consideration that the 2020s could be the decade NASCAR fans start to think rationally and decide that rooting for a winning driver is better than rooting for a bloodline. This could be the decade where Kyle Busch wins two or three more championships, wins eight to ten races in the season in the process and does it all while continuing to be the largest personality in the series.
At some point there has to be an awakening and people have go to start pulling for winners in NASCAR. It might not be Kyle Busch. It could be Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex, Jr. or Christopher Bell, I don't know, but we are coming off two decades ago where Jimmie Johnson won four consecutive championships to close the decade and a decade where Busch, Harvick and Johnson were the top three in victories and none of those drivers were ever the most popular. Meanwhile, the most popular faces in every other sport was picking up hardware left and right. You see the problem with that and why others could stray away from getting interested?
4. NASCAR national series will visit at least four "new" tracks (tracks that did not host a race in the 2010s)
This is mostly because NASCAR is going to force it but also because in the 2010s NASCAR national series only visited three tracks that had never before hosted a national touring series race and only visited four tracks that had not hosted a NASCAR race in the 2000s.
The three new tracks were Mid-Ohio, Eldora and Mosport and the fourth track was Road America, which had not hosted a NASCAR national series race since in 1956.
That is disappointingly low but also kind of makes sense since the track-building boom ended with Iowa in 2007 and there were plenty of new inclusions to the schedule from 1993 to 2009.
NASCAR is going to try and make the Nashville Fairgrounds happen. That is one. The Fairgrounds hasn't hosted any national series race since 2000.
There is always the chance of additional road courses. You have Road Atlanta, Circuit of the Americas, Virginia International Raceway and now people are giddy over NASCAR potentially hosting a street course race.
I could see NASCAR going to one or two more dirt tracks with the Truck Series and maybe adding a dirt race to the Grand National Series calendar. The easy choices are the Truck Series moving races from the 1.5-mile ovals at Charlotte and Las Vegas across the streets or parking lots to the dirt tracks on those properties. I could see Knoxville being a big grab. I am not sure when it would fit with Iowa Speedway hosting a Grand National/Truck weekend, a standalone Grand National Series race and the Knoxville Nationals all between the second weekend of June and the second weekend of August but crazier things have happened.
There really isn't any new ovals on the horizon. Where is a new oval being built? That Fort Erie Speedway that was announced almost 15 years ago that Jeff Gordon was involved in? If that hasn't opened now it likely never will.
However, we have ten years. Who is to say come 2024 someone in a place like Little Rock, Arkansas or Tulsa, Oklahoma or Duluth, Minnesota decides to build a 3/4-mile oval meant to attract NASCAR and in 2027 there is a Cup race at that new facility? That is possible.
NASCAR is going to branch out a bit more this decade. It kind of has already pledged to do so.
5. Kyle Busch gets into the top five of all-time Cup victories
We start this decade with Busch sitting on 56 victories, ninth all-time and he now faces the gulf that is 20 victories between him and Dale Earnhardt in eighth.
The only active driver ahead of him is Jimmie Johnson, tied for sixth all-time on 83 victories with Cale Yarborough. The next closest active driver is Kevin Harvick on 49 victories but Harvick is ten years older. The next active driver after Harvick is Denny Hamlin on 37 victories with Kurt Busch on 31 victories and Brad Keselowski on 30 victories.
I am not sure there is an active driver that can out-pace Busch in victories in the 2020s to prevent him from reaching 84 victories, the number that needed to end up tied for fourth with Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip or 85 victories, the number that would give him sole possession of fourth.
This will be a long decade and I am not sure Busch will run all of it. He would be 44 years old at the end of the 2029 season. I don't think Busch is going to entirely step away from racing at 38 years old or 39 years old but I could see him falling out of love with running the Cup Series at that time, decide to run big events such as Le Mans, the Indianapolis 500 and such and fill the rest of his schedule with Truck races and late model races.
Busch needs to win 29 races to get to sole possession of fourth. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2008, Busch has had at least four victories in a season nine times, including the last five seasons. He does have two seasons with only one victory in that stretch. He did win 40 races in the 2010s. In theory, he just needs to be 75% of what he was for the last ten years to get there.
If Busch does 40 victories again in the 2020s he is going to be third all-time on 96 victories and not only will he be sniffing the century-mark but he is going to be ready to pounce on the Silver Fox, David Pearson's 105 victories in second all-time. That is asking a lot. At the start of the 2010s if you asked me if I thought Jeff Gordon would reach 100 victories I might have said yes and Gordon ended up falling seven victories shy of that and retired at the age of 44, exactly where Busch will be at the end of the 2020s.
Busch ended the decade with 29 victories in the last five seasons. With an average of 5.4 victories a season I think we could be looking at Busch slide into the top five sometime during 2025.
6. Each manufacture has at least two drivers win a Cup championship
The 2010s saw seven different drivers win a championship, the most since the 1980s, but this didn't happen.
Chevrolet led the way. It started the decade with Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart each getting a title. Johnson added two more in 2013 and 2016 and Kevin Harvick won the title driving a Chevrolet in 2014.
Toyota had Kyle Busch win championships in 2015 and 2019 and Martin Truex, Jr. took a popular championship in 2017.
Ford only had one champion, Joey Logano in 2018 and before you say, "Brad Keselowski won the title with Team Penske in 2012," yes he did but he was driving a Dodge.
This is going to change because I believe the NASCAR field is too deep for one driver to win five consecutive championships and because I do not foresee any changes in regulations that will bring new manufactures into the championship. I think we are living with Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford until one of those three decides to drop out.
In the Toyota camp, we have Busch and Truex; both could win a championship again. Denny Hamlin was knocking on the door last season. Erik Jones is still young and promising and Christopher Bell is entering the fray.
Ford has Team Penske and two champions in Logano and Keselowski. Both could do it again. Ford has Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick could win a championship a second time but this time for the blue oval. Maybe Cole Custer or Ryan Blaney could rise to glory or maybe Chris Buescher could bring Roush Fenway Racing back to prominence.
Chevrolet once held all the great cards but has since fallen on hard times. It still has Hendrick Motorsports. Maybe Johnson can close out his career with an eighth title in 2020 but that seems unlikely. Either way the team still has Elliott and William Byron, both young drivers. Kyle Larson is still in the Chevrolet camp, for now, but he could piece together a championship season.
Prior to Busch's title in 2019 there had been five consecutive seasons with a different champion and Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford each won a championship in 2016, 2017 and 2018. I think the playing field is going to be rather level for a while.
7. No more than two Cup rookie of the year winners from the 2010s win a Cup championship
There were not many outstanding rookie of the year winners last decade.
Kevin Conway has not raced in the Cup Series since 2011.
Andy Lally has not raced in the Cup Series since his rookie of the year season in 2011.
Stephen Leicht won rookie of the year in 2012, made one Cup start in 2017 and that is it for him in the top division.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is not going to win a championship. Moving to JTG Daugherty Racing is a move in the wrong direction for a career.
Kyle Larson is a possibility.
Brett Moffitt has made a career for himself in the Truck Series and already has a championship down there. Maybe he can rally back to the Cup Series but that could be a stretch. Even if he does make it is questionable whether it would be in quality equipment.
Chase Elliott is a possibility.
Erik Jones is a possibility.
William Byron is a possibility.
Daniel Hemric... it is not going to be Daniel Hemric.
We have four possibilities but people already think the ship has sailed with Larson and Jones is already on the hot seat at Joe Gibbs Racing now that Christopher Bell is in the Cup Series.
Only three drivers that won rookie of the year in the 2000s won a title in the 2010s (Harvick, Busch and Logano). Matt Kenseth was rookie of the year in 2000 and won the title in 2003, the last time a driver won rookie of the year and a championship in the same decade.
Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart were the only drivers to win rookie of the year in the 1990s and win a Cup championship.
Rusty Wallace and Alan Kulwicki were the only drivers to win rookie of the year in the 1980s and win a Cup championship.
Dale Earnhardt was the only rookie of the year from the 1970s to win a championship.
David Pearson was the only rookie of the year from the 1960s to win a championship.
Rookie of the year is an unreliable predictor of future success. Add to it that Kyle Busch is likely going to be around for most of this decade, as will Logano, Keselowski and Harvick will be around for at least a little bit. It is going to be tough for all these drivers to breakthrough. A few will but not all of them and likely no more than two.
8. At least one Cup race will be in the rain
I am surprised this happened yet. The Cup Series has had rain tires for a while and NASCAR has even allowed Cup cars to race in the rain for a while but it has never worked out.
That is bound to change. The only real shot of it happening is Watkins Glen. It is not going to rain in Sonoma in June anytime soon but then again, as I write this, Australia is on fire so who knows what the weather will be like at Sonoma in 2028. We also have the Charlotte roval race, another possibility of racing in the rain.
I think the 2020s will see at least one or two more road courses/rovals/street courses add to the Cup schedule, only increasing the odds of a Cup race in the rain. It is going to happen, people are going to overreact to it and we will move on. At least some of us will move on. Others will bring it up every other day until it happens again.
9. Joe Gibbs Racing will win at least three drivers' championships in the second division
Surprisingly, the only Grand National Series drivers' championship for Joe Gibbs Racing in the 2010s was Daniel Suárez in 2016.
Christopher Bell likely should have had at least one title or perhaps two but it never worked out for Bell.
While Gibbs settled for one, JR Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing each had three titles, Richard Childress Racing took two championships and Team Penske took the only remaining title, it was 2010 with Brad Keselowski, the final year where drivers could be eligible for multiple national touring series championships.
The Grand National Series does have a problem in that teams are fleeing. Roush Fenway Racing is already out. Chip Ganassi Racing is out. Richard Childress Racing just won the title and will not have a full-time championship participant in 2020. Does Team Penske have any incentive to keep its program going after Austin Cindric makes it to the Cup Series? Will Stewart-Haas Racing continue into 2021 with Chase Briscoe?
NASCAR's second division is in a scary situation and the only two big teams that are dedicated to the series are Gibbs and JR Motorsports.
Both Gibbs and Hendrick Motorsports via JRM have an established pipelines and act like factories. They just keep pumping out drivers. Some are going to be studs and make it to the Cup Series. Others are going to be misses and fill out Front Row Motorsports.
Gibbs is not going to stop what it is doing and if teams keep withdrawing from the series it just means more chances for a Gibbs driver to win the title. Three might come easy in 2020.
10. There will not be a winless champion in any of the three national touring series
It happened twice in the 2010s, Austin Dillon with the Grand National Series championship in 2013 and Matt Crafton in the Truck Series in 2019.
It is not going to happen because either NASCAR is going to legislate that it not be possible when tweaking the playoff format or because it has only happened twice and both times were kind of flukey.
With less and less Cup driver participation allowed in the other two series we are approaching a time when all moonlighting will be prohibited. In that case, with only the championship-eligible drivers from each series competing the odds of a winless champion will decrease greatly. Winning is going to matter more. There are going to be fewer races where the top championship-eligible driver will finish third or fourth and that will be enough to extend a championship lead.
Let's consider that while there was one winless champion in NASCAR's second division over ten years the other nine seasons saw every champion win multiple times. In the Truck Series, six of the nine other champions won three races or more in a season.
The playoff format with the champion decided in the final race is always going to leave it out there for some funky result where a driver without a victory could end up in the final four, have the best race of the season while three other drivers have down days and win the championship with a second place or third place finish. Even with the format I do not think we are going to see a winless champion happen in the 2020s.
I feel like the 2020s are going to be different.
Three down, one to go. We have done sports cars. We have done Formula One. NASCAR is in the bag. The final predictions for the 2020s will be IndyCar and that will come next week.
Oh boy, before we get into that let's look at where we have coming. When the 2010s started, Jimmie Johnson had done the unprecedented and won four consecutive Cup championships. Johnson immediately raised the bar and made it five consecutive titles. Martin Truex, Jr. had not won a race in the previous two seasons entering the decade and he was switching over from Chevrolet and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing to Toyota and Michael Waltrip Racing. Joey Logano was at Joe Gibbs Racing. Kasey Kahne was at Richard Petty Motorsports. Brad Keselowski had just joined Team Penske. Red Bull Racing existed.
Elsewhere in NASCAR, 2010 would see the introduction of Road America to the Grand National Series schedule. Montreal was on that schedule. Indianapolis Raceway Park had a Grand National Series and a Truck race. Justin Allgaier was a Team Penske development driver. Ron Hornaday had just won his fourth Truck title. Matt Crafton had one Truck Series victory. There was no dirt race and Narain Karthikeyan was the Truck Series' most popular driver?
NASCAR looks different entering the 2020s. In 2010, a race victory would get you as much as 195 points. Leading laps could get you bonus points. Now we have stages, the Chase has evolved into the Playoffs, has spread to the lower two national series and a victory, just one victory, in the regular season gets you a playoff spot pretty much regardless of how you do in the rest of the races.
NASCAR is pretty unpredictable or at least it is predictable it will do something insane. How can you ever make ten predictions over the course of a decade knowing that? We are going to take a crack at it.
1. There will be at least one tweak to the playoff format
This is almost a slam-dunk. NASCAR fools around with how it determines its champions more than a pubescent boy with his junk. NASCAR is constantly tinkering, chasing the ultimate high and never ending up satisfied.
Something is going to change. Either more drivers are going to be allowed in or fewer drivers are going to be allowed in. Or playoff points are going to be abolished or playoff points are going to be increased. Or there will be more rounds or there will be fewer rounds.
I don't know what is going to happen but something is going to happen.
Here are two wonky tweaks I have come up with:
A. If a driver sweeps a round in the playoffs that driver gets a bye. For example: If a driver sweeps round of 16 races that driver gets a bye through the round of 12 and is guaranteed a spot in the round of eight. If a driver sweeps the round of 12 that driver clinches a spot in the Championship 4. If a driver sweeps the round of 8 that driver is the champion.
Think about how much more meaningful winning would be if a driver knew winning three consecutive races would be a magic ticket to more. It would also bring back the possibility of the championship being locked up early. Instead of the winner at the first race in the round of 8 cruising for two weeks that driver could seal the deal a weekend early. That penultimate race of the season would see seven drivers trying to win and clinch a spot but possibly seven drivers trying to prevent one driver from making the finale a dead-rubber. That would be fun to watch.
B. The second tweak involves qualifying for the playoffs and I could see something where the final race of the regular season, race 26, being more of a play-in game. After race 25, all race winners and the however many drivers needed to fill the top 12 are locked into the playoffs. At race 26, every driver 13th to 30th after race 25 will be competing for the final four playoff spots. The top four finishers of those 18 drivers make the playoffs.
It sounds crazy but think about this entire playoff garbage to begin with: You could be 28th in the championship, fall ass backward into a victory in a rain-shortened race and all of a sudden have a shot to win the championship and finish no worse than 16th in the championship. If NASCAR is already doing that making the 26th race some sort of free-for-all where anyone 13th to 30th could make it and not even have to win the race but get in with an eighth place finish, that driver's first top ten finish of the season in all likelihood, is very possible of happening.
2. There will be a doubleheader weekend at a track other than Pocono
NASCAR is trying the doubleheader at Pocono this year and I think it is something we are going to see more of double the road to give teams additional weeks off. It makes more sense than mid-week races.
Let's consider the NASCAR Cup schedule for a moment:
There are 13 tracks that host two Cup races. Of those 13 tracks, only four of those tracks do not have playoff race. Those tracks are Daytona, Michigan, Dover and Pocono.
The other nine all host playoff races: Bristol, Richmond, Las Vegas, Talladega, Charlotte, Kansas, Texas, Martinsville and Phoenix.
If a track is going to host a doubleheader it has to have two races and it is not going to take place in the playoffs.
Pocono already has a doubleheader and that leaves Daytona, Michigan and Dover.
Daytona is never going to host a doubleheader. It is going to host the season opener and the regular season finale until enough people are alienated and the race is moved back to Independence Day weekend like NASCAR did with the Southern 500 and Labor Day weekend.
That leaves Michigan and Dover and it actually makes sense for those two tracks to host doubleheaders.
Neither track has two overflowing weekends in terms of attendance. It could be argued Michigan and Dover are the two tracks where seat removal has been the most notable over the last ten years.
Dover could become a doubleheader in the spring, let's say May, you already have Pocono at the end of June and Michigan could become a doubleheader in August. That would give the teams two additional off weekends.
NASCAR could either leave those off weekends in June and August where the vacated Michigan and Dover weekends would be or NASCAR could leave one in the season and move the other to the offseason and moving the season finale into October or NASCAR could move both off weekends to the offseason and the NASCAR season could be over say on October 22, 2023.
Whether or not NASCAR goes to the lengths of having three doubleheaders in a season is up for question but I do not believe 2020 is the only time we will see a doubleheader and I do not believe Pocono will be the only track that tries it.
3. At least once will the Cup champion also be the most popular driver
This is hedging that Chase Elliott will do what Dale Earnhardt, Jr. couldn't do and win a Cup championship.
Elliott should probably win one championship in the 2020s. Hendrick Motorsports cannot stay down forever and Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske are not going to split all the titles (although they could).
If there Chevrolet had to choose one driver to bring Chevrolet back to the top it would be Elliott.
This is also taking into consideration that the 2020s could be the decade NASCAR fans start to think rationally and decide that rooting for a winning driver is better than rooting for a bloodline. This could be the decade where Kyle Busch wins two or three more championships, wins eight to ten races in the season in the process and does it all while continuing to be the largest personality in the series.
At some point there has to be an awakening and people have go to start pulling for winners in NASCAR. It might not be Kyle Busch. It could be Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex, Jr. or Christopher Bell, I don't know, but we are coming off two decades ago where Jimmie Johnson won four consecutive championships to close the decade and a decade where Busch, Harvick and Johnson were the top three in victories and none of those drivers were ever the most popular. Meanwhile, the most popular faces in every other sport was picking up hardware left and right. You see the problem with that and why others could stray away from getting interested?
4. NASCAR national series will visit at least four "new" tracks (tracks that did not host a race in the 2010s)
This is mostly because NASCAR is going to force it but also because in the 2010s NASCAR national series only visited three tracks that had never before hosted a national touring series race and only visited four tracks that had not hosted a NASCAR race in the 2000s.
The three new tracks were Mid-Ohio, Eldora and Mosport and the fourth track was Road America, which had not hosted a NASCAR national series race since in 1956.
That is disappointingly low but also kind of makes sense since the track-building boom ended with Iowa in 2007 and there were plenty of new inclusions to the schedule from 1993 to 2009.
NASCAR is going to try and make the Nashville Fairgrounds happen. That is one. The Fairgrounds hasn't hosted any national series race since 2000.
There is always the chance of additional road courses. You have Road Atlanta, Circuit of the Americas, Virginia International Raceway and now people are giddy over NASCAR potentially hosting a street course race.
I could see NASCAR going to one or two more dirt tracks with the Truck Series and maybe adding a dirt race to the Grand National Series calendar. The easy choices are the Truck Series moving races from the 1.5-mile ovals at Charlotte and Las Vegas across the streets or parking lots to the dirt tracks on those properties. I could see Knoxville being a big grab. I am not sure when it would fit with Iowa Speedway hosting a Grand National/Truck weekend, a standalone Grand National Series race and the Knoxville Nationals all between the second weekend of June and the second weekend of August but crazier things have happened.
There really isn't any new ovals on the horizon. Where is a new oval being built? That Fort Erie Speedway that was announced almost 15 years ago that Jeff Gordon was involved in? If that hasn't opened now it likely never will.
However, we have ten years. Who is to say come 2024 someone in a place like Little Rock, Arkansas or Tulsa, Oklahoma or Duluth, Minnesota decides to build a 3/4-mile oval meant to attract NASCAR and in 2027 there is a Cup race at that new facility? That is possible.
NASCAR is going to branch out a bit more this decade. It kind of has already pledged to do so.
5. Kyle Busch gets into the top five of all-time Cup victories
We start this decade with Busch sitting on 56 victories, ninth all-time and he now faces the gulf that is 20 victories between him and Dale Earnhardt in eighth.
The only active driver ahead of him is Jimmie Johnson, tied for sixth all-time on 83 victories with Cale Yarborough. The next closest active driver is Kevin Harvick on 49 victories but Harvick is ten years older. The next active driver after Harvick is Denny Hamlin on 37 victories with Kurt Busch on 31 victories and Brad Keselowski on 30 victories.
I am not sure there is an active driver that can out-pace Busch in victories in the 2020s to prevent him from reaching 84 victories, the number that needed to end up tied for fourth with Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip or 85 victories, the number that would give him sole possession of fourth.
This will be a long decade and I am not sure Busch will run all of it. He would be 44 years old at the end of the 2029 season. I don't think Busch is going to entirely step away from racing at 38 years old or 39 years old but I could see him falling out of love with running the Cup Series at that time, decide to run big events such as Le Mans, the Indianapolis 500 and such and fill the rest of his schedule with Truck races and late model races.
Busch needs to win 29 races to get to sole possession of fourth. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2008, Busch has had at least four victories in a season nine times, including the last five seasons. He does have two seasons with only one victory in that stretch. He did win 40 races in the 2010s. In theory, he just needs to be 75% of what he was for the last ten years to get there.
If Busch does 40 victories again in the 2020s he is going to be third all-time on 96 victories and not only will he be sniffing the century-mark but he is going to be ready to pounce on the Silver Fox, David Pearson's 105 victories in second all-time. That is asking a lot. At the start of the 2010s if you asked me if I thought Jeff Gordon would reach 100 victories I might have said yes and Gordon ended up falling seven victories shy of that and retired at the age of 44, exactly where Busch will be at the end of the 2020s.
Busch ended the decade with 29 victories in the last five seasons. With an average of 5.4 victories a season I think we could be looking at Busch slide into the top five sometime during 2025.
6. Each manufacture has at least two drivers win a Cup championship
The 2010s saw seven different drivers win a championship, the most since the 1980s, but this didn't happen.
Chevrolet led the way. It started the decade with Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart each getting a title. Johnson added two more in 2013 and 2016 and Kevin Harvick won the title driving a Chevrolet in 2014.
Toyota had Kyle Busch win championships in 2015 and 2019 and Martin Truex, Jr. took a popular championship in 2017.
Ford only had one champion, Joey Logano in 2018 and before you say, "Brad Keselowski won the title with Team Penske in 2012," yes he did but he was driving a Dodge.
This is going to change because I believe the NASCAR field is too deep for one driver to win five consecutive championships and because I do not foresee any changes in regulations that will bring new manufactures into the championship. I think we are living with Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford until one of those three decides to drop out.
In the Toyota camp, we have Busch and Truex; both could win a championship again. Denny Hamlin was knocking on the door last season. Erik Jones is still young and promising and Christopher Bell is entering the fray.
Ford has Team Penske and two champions in Logano and Keselowski. Both could do it again. Ford has Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick could win a championship a second time but this time for the blue oval. Maybe Cole Custer or Ryan Blaney could rise to glory or maybe Chris Buescher could bring Roush Fenway Racing back to prominence.
Chevrolet once held all the great cards but has since fallen on hard times. It still has Hendrick Motorsports. Maybe Johnson can close out his career with an eighth title in 2020 but that seems unlikely. Either way the team still has Elliott and William Byron, both young drivers. Kyle Larson is still in the Chevrolet camp, for now, but he could piece together a championship season.
Prior to Busch's title in 2019 there had been five consecutive seasons with a different champion and Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford each won a championship in 2016, 2017 and 2018. I think the playing field is going to be rather level for a while.
7. No more than two Cup rookie of the year winners from the 2010s win a Cup championship
There were not many outstanding rookie of the year winners last decade.
Kevin Conway has not raced in the Cup Series since 2011.
Andy Lally has not raced in the Cup Series since his rookie of the year season in 2011.
Stephen Leicht won rookie of the year in 2012, made one Cup start in 2017 and that is it for him in the top division.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is not going to win a championship. Moving to JTG Daugherty Racing is a move in the wrong direction for a career.
Kyle Larson is a possibility.
Brett Moffitt has made a career for himself in the Truck Series and already has a championship down there. Maybe he can rally back to the Cup Series but that could be a stretch. Even if he does make it is questionable whether it would be in quality equipment.
Chase Elliott is a possibility.
Erik Jones is a possibility.
William Byron is a possibility.
Daniel Hemric... it is not going to be Daniel Hemric.
We have four possibilities but people already think the ship has sailed with Larson and Jones is already on the hot seat at Joe Gibbs Racing now that Christopher Bell is in the Cup Series.
Only three drivers that won rookie of the year in the 2000s won a title in the 2010s (Harvick, Busch and Logano). Matt Kenseth was rookie of the year in 2000 and won the title in 2003, the last time a driver won rookie of the year and a championship in the same decade.
Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart were the only drivers to win rookie of the year in the 1990s and win a Cup championship.
Rusty Wallace and Alan Kulwicki were the only drivers to win rookie of the year in the 1980s and win a Cup championship.
Dale Earnhardt was the only rookie of the year from the 1970s to win a championship.
David Pearson was the only rookie of the year from the 1960s to win a championship.
Rookie of the year is an unreliable predictor of future success. Add to it that Kyle Busch is likely going to be around for most of this decade, as will Logano, Keselowski and Harvick will be around for at least a little bit. It is going to be tough for all these drivers to breakthrough. A few will but not all of them and likely no more than two.
8. At least one Cup race will be in the rain
I am surprised this happened yet. The Cup Series has had rain tires for a while and NASCAR has even allowed Cup cars to race in the rain for a while but it has never worked out.
That is bound to change. The only real shot of it happening is Watkins Glen. It is not going to rain in Sonoma in June anytime soon but then again, as I write this, Australia is on fire so who knows what the weather will be like at Sonoma in 2028. We also have the Charlotte roval race, another possibility of racing in the rain.
I think the 2020s will see at least one or two more road courses/rovals/street courses add to the Cup schedule, only increasing the odds of a Cup race in the rain. It is going to happen, people are going to overreact to it and we will move on. At least some of us will move on. Others will bring it up every other day until it happens again.
9. Joe Gibbs Racing will win at least three drivers' championships in the second division
Surprisingly, the only Grand National Series drivers' championship for Joe Gibbs Racing in the 2010s was Daniel Suárez in 2016.
Christopher Bell likely should have had at least one title or perhaps two but it never worked out for Bell.
While Gibbs settled for one, JR Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing each had three titles, Richard Childress Racing took two championships and Team Penske took the only remaining title, it was 2010 with Brad Keselowski, the final year where drivers could be eligible for multiple national touring series championships.
The Grand National Series does have a problem in that teams are fleeing. Roush Fenway Racing is already out. Chip Ganassi Racing is out. Richard Childress Racing just won the title and will not have a full-time championship participant in 2020. Does Team Penske have any incentive to keep its program going after Austin Cindric makes it to the Cup Series? Will Stewart-Haas Racing continue into 2021 with Chase Briscoe?
NASCAR's second division is in a scary situation and the only two big teams that are dedicated to the series are Gibbs and JR Motorsports.
Both Gibbs and Hendrick Motorsports via JRM have an established pipelines and act like factories. They just keep pumping out drivers. Some are going to be studs and make it to the Cup Series. Others are going to be misses and fill out Front Row Motorsports.
Gibbs is not going to stop what it is doing and if teams keep withdrawing from the series it just means more chances for a Gibbs driver to win the title. Three might come easy in 2020.
10. There will not be a winless champion in any of the three national touring series
It happened twice in the 2010s, Austin Dillon with the Grand National Series championship in 2013 and Matt Crafton in the Truck Series in 2019.
It is not going to happen because either NASCAR is going to legislate that it not be possible when tweaking the playoff format or because it has only happened twice and both times were kind of flukey.
With less and less Cup driver participation allowed in the other two series we are approaching a time when all moonlighting will be prohibited. In that case, with only the championship-eligible drivers from each series competing the odds of a winless champion will decrease greatly. Winning is going to matter more. There are going to be fewer races where the top championship-eligible driver will finish third or fourth and that will be enough to extend a championship lead.
Let's consider that while there was one winless champion in NASCAR's second division over ten years the other nine seasons saw every champion win multiple times. In the Truck Series, six of the nine other champions won three races or more in a season.
The playoff format with the champion decided in the final race is always going to leave it out there for some funky result where a driver without a victory could end up in the final four, have the best race of the season while three other drivers have down days and win the championship with a second place or third place finish. Even with the format I do not think we are going to see a winless champion happen in the 2020s.
I feel like the 2020s are going to be different.
Three down, one to go. We have done sports cars. We have done Formula One. NASCAR is in the bag. The final predictions for the 2020s will be IndyCar and that will come next week.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Predictions For the 2020s: Formula One
Entering the 2020s, Lewis Hamilton has won three consecutive World Drivers' Championships, five of the last six and Mercedes-Benz has won six consecutive World Constructors' Championships.
At the start of the 2010s, Hamilton was one-year removed for a world championship with McLaren, Brawn GP was coming off a championship with Jenson Button but Mercedes-Benz was returning as a full factory team, taking over the Brawn operation. Mercedes brought Michael Schumacher out of retirement and Button joined Hamilton at McLaren. Fernando Alonso joined Ferrari. Kimi Räikkönen retired. Sébastien Buemi and Lucas di Grassi were both on the grid.
At the start of the 2010s, four teams were entering Formula One, Virgin Racing, Lotus Racing, Hispania Racing Team and USF1. Of those four, USF1 never made it to the grid. HRT would make it three seasons but its most notable accomplishment was having both cars fail to qualify for Australia in 2011 and 2012 and giving Daniel Ricciardo his grand prix debut when Red Bull had more drivers than seats. Lotus Racing became Team Lotus and then Caterham and never scored a point in five seasons. Virgin Racing became Marussia F1 and then Manor Marussia Racing before ending on Manor Racing. In seven seasons, the team had a ninth in Monaco with Jules Bianchi and a tenth in Austria with Pascal Wehrlein.
On the first day of 2010, I am not sure many saw the decade playing out the way it did and with no reason to be certain of anything that is to come over the next ten years we will make ten predictions on what we will see.
1. Lewis Hamilton gets 100 grand prix victories
Entering 2020, Hamilton has 84 victories, eight away from sole-possession of the all-time record and 16 victories from the century mark.
It seems inevitable Hamilton will break Michael Schumacher's record of 91 victories. It will likely come in 2021. Hamilton has averaged over ten victories a season dating back to 2014 and in the last six seasons he has never had fewer than nine victories in a season. Matching his worst season of the hybrid-era will not only give Hamilton the record for most victories but also likely level Hamilton with Schumacher on seven world championships.
The century mark is another animal. Sixteen victories in ten years does not seem like much but Hamilton just turned 35 years old. How many seasons does he really have left in him?
Drivers are better conditioned to go into their 40s and I do not think that will be a problem for Hamilton but it is a stretch to think he will run the entire decade and race until he is 45 years old.
I think 41 years old is the point Hamilton makes his decision to call it career. I think he could call it sooner. I do not believe Hamilton is in this to chase records. I do think Hamilton could get to 92 or 93 victories and then decide his goal is 100 but if he hits a rough patch and has one or two years where he only wins once or twice he may call it career without getting 100 victories but with nothing left to prove.
Becoming the first driver with 100 grand prix victories is something that will hard not to chase. From what Hamilton has shown us he is a determined driver. He does not lose much motivation. Things have gone well with Mercedes. We do not know what the 2021 regulations will bring. We do not know where Hamilton could go. Will he remain with Mercedes or switch to Ferrari at some point?
Hamilton is so close I think he will get there regardless of whom he is driving for.
2. A non-Mercedes driver will win at least four championships
Mercedes ended the decade with six consecutive World Drivers' Champions and six consecutive World Constructors' Championships. Mercedes is penciled in to take both in 2020.
However, no rainstorm lasts forever. Someone in different overalls is going to breakthrough and it is going to happen multiple times.
The previous decade started with Red Bull winning four consecutive championships with Sebastian Vettel. The 2000s started with Michael Schumacher and Ferrari winning five consecutive championships. The rest of that decade saw Fernando Alonso and Renault win in 2005 and 2006, Lewis Hamilton and McLaren win in 2008 and Jenson Button take a stunning championship with Brawn in 2009.
The 1990s had Ayrton Senna win the first two world titles with McLaren. Williams followed with Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost. Benetton followed with Schumacher for his first two titles. Williams won two more with Damon Hill and Jacques Villeneuve. McLaren closed the decade with a pair of title for Mika Häkkinen.
There are too many promising young riders in Formula One and it will not take moving to Mercedes for all of them to win a title. Max Verstappen has locked up a spot at Red Bull through 2023. He could win one or two titles. Charles Leclerc is going to figure it out and he will likely figure it out with Ferrari. When the new regulations are introduced maybe it sees Lando Norris carry McLaren back to the mountaintop or maybe Carlos Sainz, Jr. is the one to do it. Maybe Esteban Ocon becomes champion with Renault or perhaps Daniel Ricciardo will have that honor.
Don't forget, if Lewis Hamilton does leave Mercedes and wins a championship for Ferrari o for someone else that would help fulfill this prediction. Hamilton could win in 2020 and come 2021 and 20202 win with Ferrari and all of a sudden we are halfway to this prediction being fulfilled.
Let's not forget the countless young drivers in karting that we are not talking about but who will be in Formula One at some point this decade. The 2028 champion could be a complete unknown right now. It could be a kid who sat in a go-kart for the first time this past Christmas. That driver doesn't even know he or she is eight years away.
3. There will be at least four different World Drivers' Champions
To piggyback off that last prediction, there are too many talented drivers that will have to win a world championship at some point.
The 2010s had only three world champions: Hamilton, Vettel, Nico Rosberg.
That is going to change. It was a fluke of sorts. Hamilton will probably win one more. Verstappen and Leclerc feel like certain champions. If Hamilton leaves Mercedes or just has one bad start to a year Valtteri Bottas could carry the Mercedes flag. I think Norris could do it. I think Ricciardo could do it. Perhaps Vettel has a resurgence in his career. There are seven possible champions right there.
Let's not forget that a future champion might not even be on the horizon yet. Someone is going to rise. In 2010, no one was singing the praises of Leclerc, Norris and Verstappen and here we are. We do not know who will be the future of Formula One but someone will step up and fill it and someone has to be champion.
4. Sebastian Vettel has another team change in him
And this will happen sooner rather than later.
Vettel and Leclerc had a rough first season together. That could improve but I do not think this is something that can last more than two more seasons. Vettel bolted from Red Bull after one year where Ricciardo beat him in the championship after having taken the title in four consecutive seasons.
Leclerc could easily be the top Ferrari again in 2020. Not only could Leclerc be the top Ferrari but he could thoroughly rout Vettel. The 2019 season ended with Leclerc up 24 points on Vettel and scoring double the number of victories. The 2020 season could be one where Leclerc is third in the championship with three or four victories while Vettel is fifth with zero or one victory if he is lucky. Vettel is not going to stick with Ferrari in 2021 if that is the case.
I do not think Vettel will completely walk away from Formula One after Ferrari. It has been rumored. Bernie Ecclestone voiced that is what he thinks will happen but at the end of 2020 Vettel will be 33 years old. He will have too much time on his hands.
Where would he go?
With Verstappen locked up at Red Bull until 2023 that possible reunion will have to wait a little longer. If Hamilton bites and goes to Ferrari then I think Mercedes is a possibility. A downturn in results might sway Mercedes away from Vettel but Vettel is a four-time champion and third all-time in victories. Mercedes may decide to take its chances.
The new regulations could bring an unexpected team forward. Alfa Romeo could take a swing at Vettel. Kimi Räikkönen is not going to be there forever. It might be the Ferrari B-Team now but in two years it might be fighting with Ferrari. You have to think with the grand prix history Alfa Romeo has it would like to be fighting for victories and fighting to add to that glory established seven decades ago. Vettel could be the driver that brings Alfa Romeo back to the top of the grand prix world.
5. Mark Webber's record for most races before first victory is broken
Webber set this record at his 130th race when he won the 2009 German Grand Prix.
Currently, three active drivers have more than 130 races and have yet to win a grand prix. Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez each have 179 grand prix to their names and Romain Grosjean has 166 grand prix.
Hülkenberg does not have a ride for 2020 and at 32 years old with a large crop of youngsters already in Formula One and with more waiting to break in he may never make it back but you never know. Even if he does it likely will not be with a team favorited to get victories.
Grosjean seems to be closing to out the door. Haas really doesn't seem in love with him but are keeping him because they have no clue where to turn. No one else is going to give him a shot once he is done with Haas. It likely will not be Grosjean unless he has a very fortunate day in 2020 with Haas.
Pérez could do it. He is the one driver in average equipment that has gotten on the podium regularly. He will be 30 years old at the end of the month. Pérez could have one more move to a big team in him. If Vettel is out at Ferrari after 2020, and Hamilton decides to stay at Mercedes, Pérez would be the veteran to pair with Leclerc. Pérez will take a race victory here and there to being Leclerc's wingman.
If Vettel retires and Hamilton moves to Ferrari, Pérez would be a wise choice for Mercedes.
Those three aside, Carlos Sainz, Jr. set the record for most races before a first career podium in 2019. He has entered 102 races and has yet to win, it does not appear likely he will win in 2020, which means entering 2021 he could be on 124 races without a victory and McLaren will be returning to Mercedes-Benz engines for 2021. It would not be crazy if Sainz, Jr. won a race in the middle of 2021.
Kevin Magnussen has been in one more race weekend than Sainz, Jr. Magnussen will most likely not win a race in 2020 and he seems far-fetched he could win in 2021 but stranger things have happened.
Daniil Kvyat is on 95 races. He has some work to do but he could hang on for another two seasons and late in 2021 steal a victory. Maybe he is Leclerc's number two after Vettel leaves Ferrari.
Maybe the 2021 season is Leclerc's coming out party and the Monegasque driver wins nine races with Kvayt consistently finishing third to fifth but once we get to the 17th round when it is clear Leclerc will be champion Ferrari decides this race will be for Kvyat and Leclerc can settle for a good points haul in third and maybe that race is... I don't know... in Russia and... maybe a prominent world leader is there to hand the trophy to the race winner... and that race winner just happens to be the Russian Kvyat... and it would look good in the host country and that host country would be feel a lot of national pride seeing such an event occur that it would almost feel scripted.
It is just a wild conjuring of the mind. I am not saying it will happen but who is to say it could not happen?
6. Non-Big Three teams combine to win at least eight grand prix
Eight is a low number but Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari and Red Bull have combined to win 139 consecutive races.
The last victory not by one of those three teams was the 2013 Australian Grand Prix with Lotus and Kimi Räikkonen.
There were 198 Formula One races in the 2010s. Teams not named Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari and Red Bull combined to win 21 of them. The breakdown was five in 2010, six in 2011, ten in 2012 and one in 2013. McLaren won 18 of those 21 races. Lotus won twice. Williams won once.
Twenty-one of 198 races is only 10.6%. That is very low. We are probably going to exceed 198 races in the 2020s. The 2020 calendar is made up of 22 races. Liberty Media is keen on a 25-race schedule. I do not know when we will get there but we probably will get there. Figure that we average 23 races a season in the 2020s and we get 230 races total, 10.6% would be 24.38 races. Eight races would be 3.47%. Since 2013, the percentage is 0.714%.
Like I said before, something is going to change. Something has to change. We can have three dominant teams. There have been plenty of periods where there were only three dominant teams in Formula One but Formula One cannot continue with three teams winning 99.28% of the races over seven seasons.
Don't get me wrong, Formula One cannot have three teams combine to win 96.53% of the races but it would be a start and it is a low bar to clear. It is the bare minimum Formula One has to meet this decade. It shows progress, not good enough progress, but progress nonetheless.
7. There will be a change to the qualifying format
Every decade there is a qualifying change and it doesn't mean there is something wrong with the format.
Formula One changed the knockout format for two rounds in 2016. It was only two rounds but Formula One still changed it.
Qualifying is an easy thing to change and it is low risk. Yes, the 2016 change did not work, but it was worth a shot. You can toy with qualifying in hopes of mixing up the grid and improving the racing. Ultimately, if a qualifying format change is made, even if it is hated but at the end of a grand prix on Sunday people are talking about how great the race was people would come around to the qualifying change.
The prime candidate to be the next qualifying format is a reverse grid race. It has been floating out there for a few years and was prominently out there in 2019. It was even proposed to use reverse grid races for three rounds in 2020. I think we will see it at least once. Formula One will try it. I am not saying it is going to stick. I am not saying it is going to make it a full season. I am not saying reverse grid races will be introduced at the start of 2021 and make it all the way to 2030.
I say Formula One will try it once and if it fails we will be back to the knockout format that is beloved and we will all move on with our lives.
8. A new engine manufacture joins Formula One
This seems like something Formula One needs to happen. The only manufactures to join in the 2010s were Cosworth and Honda.
Cosworth returned in 2010 after it exited following the 2006 season only to exit again after 2013 when its teams were Williams for two seasons, the Tony Fernandes-led Lotus for a season, the floundering HRT program for three excruciatingly painful three seasons and the Virgin/Marussia outlet for four seasons.
Honda withdrew from Formula One after 2008 and was back in 2015 with McLaren, where it had three tumultuous seasons, but it has been with Toro Rosso for the last two years and in 2019 it paired with Red Bull and won two races.
Let me be clear, new does not mean completely new. It means new compared to the 2010s.
I am not sure any completely new manufacture will come in. I think it is a little too late for Kia or Hyundai to make an attempt. It either were to join Formula One it would have been done with Toyota in the 2000s and it would have corresponded with the Korean Grand Prix.
I do not think we will see a Chinese manufacture like Geely get into Formula One but a decade is a long time. Let's see how the world changes.
What manufactures could return?
Ford? No. I think it is too much money and it would not want to be a factory program but Ford will not see a team worry partnering with.
BMW? Perhaps but I think it is in the Formula E boat firmly and is going in the opposite direction of Formula One.
Porsche? Porsche has always been the manufacture with Formula One pedigree but never in Formula One. Similar to BMW, I think Porsche is in Formula E but I think it is more likely to see Porsche join Formula One in the 2020s than BMW. That doesn't mean I think it will happen but if you said one of these two will be in Formula One at some point in the next ten years I would take Porsche.
Aston Martin? Now there is a strong possibility. It already has the Red Bull connection and Red Bull and Honda are good now but Honda has been on the fence the last few years. The program is making strides but if feels like more has to be done in 2020 for Honda to stick around.
The other possibility with Aston Martin is Lawrence Stroll is rumored to be purchasing Aston Martin. Stroll owns part of Racing Point. Racing Point is a terrible team name. Racing Point becoming a factory Aston Martin program would be better for everyone involved. That might be the answer.
Now, Stroll has to purchase Aston Martin of course. Stroll would not be the first wealthy man to be linked to an automobile company not to buy it. In the early days of 2020, it is the most likely possibility.
9. Formula One visits four new countries
And we are not going to count Vietnam, which debuts in April.
In the 2010s, Formula One visited South Korea, India, Russia and Azerbaijan for the first time. The decade before that had five new countries join the Formula One schedule, Bahrain, China, Turkey, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates.
We are going to be running out of countries. Thirty-three countries will have hosted a Formula One grand prix once Vietnam takes place.
What are the options?
Let's consider countries that have tracks. Qatar has the Losail International Circuit and already hosts a MotoGP round. The Middle East has two races but should Bahrain fall off or the series want to expand to three Middle East races then Qatar is the number one option.
Finland has the KymiRing, which opened in August 2019 and will host MotoGP's Finnish Grand Prix in July. Finland has a rich history of Formula One world champions. The last 20 years has seen Formula One move away from European races but you never know what country could step into the role.
Thailand has a new driver on the Formula One grid and it has the Buriram International Circuit, which already draws 100,000 people for the Asian Le Mans Series. I think Thailand will host a Formula One race sooner rather than later, especially if Alexander Albon wins at Red Bull. It could be paired with Singapore at the start of the final third of the season or it could be paired with Vietnam. Or it could be a rotating round in a few years with either of those places.
Returning to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has been throwing around a lot of money of late. It hosted Race of Champions not long ago, it hosted the Formula E season opener the last two seasons and it currently hosts the Dakar Rally. I think there is too much money around for this not to happen at some point in the next decade. The Reem International Circuit opened in the late-2000s and though it has not hosted anything major other than Porsche GT3 Cup Middle East it could be upgraded or an entirely new multi-billion dollar track could grow out of the sands.
What are some crazier options?
For all the motorsports success, New Zealand has never hosted a Formula One grand prix. This is a stretch but the home of McLaren, Hulme, Dixon, Hartley, McLaughlin and Richards should host a grand prix on motorsports success alone. It needs a circuit upgraded or a new one constructed. That is unlikely to happen but it would be nice to see and it would be a nice place to open the season with Australia.
Indonesia seemed possible when Rio Haryanto was on the grid for 15 minutes. I still will not rule it out because Indonesia has a lot of people and it has a circuit, Sentul International Circuit, which once host GP2 Asia Series, A1GP and hosted MotoGP twice in 1996 and 1997.
Denmark was not long ago rumored to be a potential host of a Formula One race in Copenhagen. Like New Zealand, for all the motorsports success Denmark should host a grand prix but it is a smaller country. It is tough to find the room for a 2.8-mile circuit and a street course would be the easiest option but I am not sure the Danish streets are that accommodating to great racing action.
Now that Bernie Ecclestone is no longer in charge I think it is safe to say North Korea, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia are off the table but you never know with Liberty Media.
10. There will be an American grand prix winner
This is more of a pipe dream.
As we sit here in 2020, the last grand prix with an American driver winner was on August 27, 1978, when Mario Andretti won the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.
This drought will likely make it to 42 years. It is extremely unlikely any American driver will have a Friday practice run in 2020 let alone start a race let alone be in a car capable of winning a grand prix.
Something will have to change. Could we really go more than a half a century between American grand prix winners? There has to be one driver that will breakthrough. A lot of American drivers have gone to Europe and been moderately successful. There has to be one driver that can go there, win in Formula Three, win in Formula Two and get with the right team at the right time to win one grand prix.
I am not talking about Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel number of victories I am talking about one race. I am talking about Pastor Maldonado levels of victories. I would be ecstatic to see Giancarlo Fisichella levels of victories for an American driver.
There has to be one driver that will set his or her sights on Formula One and make it. We have seen drivers try and hit a wall and returned to the United States to run IndyCar and that is fine. Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi are making a living in IndyCar. Graham Rahal is doing the same. There has to be one kid who is just going to do it, who will not quit and will force a Formula One team to sign him or her and then make it hard for anyone to let that driver go.
This is a dream because if we are going into 2030 with 51 years since an American won a grand prix that is going to hurt. There have been plenty of talent American drivers in the last 41 years but Formula One was not on their radar. They could make a living and a great living running domestically. That is not going to change. The United States will continue to have a healthy domestic scene and it will be difficult for Americans to leave their comfort zone but I believe there will be one driver who will take on the challenge and not give up until he or she has stood on the top step of a Formula One podium.
Two sets of predictions down and two to go and, coincidentally, we will head to the United States for the final two sets of predictions. Coming up next will be the NASCAR predictions. Please check out the sports car predictions for the 2020s.
At the start of the 2010s, Hamilton was one-year removed for a world championship with McLaren, Brawn GP was coming off a championship with Jenson Button but Mercedes-Benz was returning as a full factory team, taking over the Brawn operation. Mercedes brought Michael Schumacher out of retirement and Button joined Hamilton at McLaren. Fernando Alonso joined Ferrari. Kimi Räikkönen retired. Sébastien Buemi and Lucas di Grassi were both on the grid.
At the start of the 2010s, four teams were entering Formula One, Virgin Racing, Lotus Racing, Hispania Racing Team and USF1. Of those four, USF1 never made it to the grid. HRT would make it three seasons but its most notable accomplishment was having both cars fail to qualify for Australia in 2011 and 2012 and giving Daniel Ricciardo his grand prix debut when Red Bull had more drivers than seats. Lotus Racing became Team Lotus and then Caterham and never scored a point in five seasons. Virgin Racing became Marussia F1 and then Manor Marussia Racing before ending on Manor Racing. In seven seasons, the team had a ninth in Monaco with Jules Bianchi and a tenth in Austria with Pascal Wehrlein.
On the first day of 2010, I am not sure many saw the decade playing out the way it did and with no reason to be certain of anything that is to come over the next ten years we will make ten predictions on what we will see.
1. Lewis Hamilton gets 100 grand prix victories
Entering 2020, Hamilton has 84 victories, eight away from sole-possession of the all-time record and 16 victories from the century mark.
It seems inevitable Hamilton will break Michael Schumacher's record of 91 victories. It will likely come in 2021. Hamilton has averaged over ten victories a season dating back to 2014 and in the last six seasons he has never had fewer than nine victories in a season. Matching his worst season of the hybrid-era will not only give Hamilton the record for most victories but also likely level Hamilton with Schumacher on seven world championships.
The century mark is another animal. Sixteen victories in ten years does not seem like much but Hamilton just turned 35 years old. How many seasons does he really have left in him?
Drivers are better conditioned to go into their 40s and I do not think that will be a problem for Hamilton but it is a stretch to think he will run the entire decade and race until he is 45 years old.
I think 41 years old is the point Hamilton makes his decision to call it career. I think he could call it sooner. I do not believe Hamilton is in this to chase records. I do think Hamilton could get to 92 or 93 victories and then decide his goal is 100 but if he hits a rough patch and has one or two years where he only wins once or twice he may call it career without getting 100 victories but with nothing left to prove.
Becoming the first driver with 100 grand prix victories is something that will hard not to chase. From what Hamilton has shown us he is a determined driver. He does not lose much motivation. Things have gone well with Mercedes. We do not know what the 2021 regulations will bring. We do not know where Hamilton could go. Will he remain with Mercedes or switch to Ferrari at some point?
Hamilton is so close I think he will get there regardless of whom he is driving for.
2. A non-Mercedes driver will win at least four championships
Mercedes ended the decade with six consecutive World Drivers' Champions and six consecutive World Constructors' Championships. Mercedes is penciled in to take both in 2020.
However, no rainstorm lasts forever. Someone in different overalls is going to breakthrough and it is going to happen multiple times.
The previous decade started with Red Bull winning four consecutive championships with Sebastian Vettel. The 2000s started with Michael Schumacher and Ferrari winning five consecutive championships. The rest of that decade saw Fernando Alonso and Renault win in 2005 and 2006, Lewis Hamilton and McLaren win in 2008 and Jenson Button take a stunning championship with Brawn in 2009.
The 1990s had Ayrton Senna win the first two world titles with McLaren. Williams followed with Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost. Benetton followed with Schumacher for his first two titles. Williams won two more with Damon Hill and Jacques Villeneuve. McLaren closed the decade with a pair of title for Mika Häkkinen.
There are too many promising young riders in Formula One and it will not take moving to Mercedes for all of them to win a title. Max Verstappen has locked up a spot at Red Bull through 2023. He could win one or two titles. Charles Leclerc is going to figure it out and he will likely figure it out with Ferrari. When the new regulations are introduced maybe it sees Lando Norris carry McLaren back to the mountaintop or maybe Carlos Sainz, Jr. is the one to do it. Maybe Esteban Ocon becomes champion with Renault or perhaps Daniel Ricciardo will have that honor.
Don't forget, if Lewis Hamilton does leave Mercedes and wins a championship for Ferrari o for someone else that would help fulfill this prediction. Hamilton could win in 2020 and come 2021 and 20202 win with Ferrari and all of a sudden we are halfway to this prediction being fulfilled.
Let's not forget the countless young drivers in karting that we are not talking about but who will be in Formula One at some point this decade. The 2028 champion could be a complete unknown right now. It could be a kid who sat in a go-kart for the first time this past Christmas. That driver doesn't even know he or she is eight years away.
3. There will be at least four different World Drivers' Champions
To piggyback off that last prediction, there are too many talented drivers that will have to win a world championship at some point.
The 2010s had only three world champions: Hamilton, Vettel, Nico Rosberg.
That is going to change. It was a fluke of sorts. Hamilton will probably win one more. Verstappen and Leclerc feel like certain champions. If Hamilton leaves Mercedes or just has one bad start to a year Valtteri Bottas could carry the Mercedes flag. I think Norris could do it. I think Ricciardo could do it. Perhaps Vettel has a resurgence in his career. There are seven possible champions right there.
Let's not forget that a future champion might not even be on the horizon yet. Someone is going to rise. In 2010, no one was singing the praises of Leclerc, Norris and Verstappen and here we are. We do not know who will be the future of Formula One but someone will step up and fill it and someone has to be champion.
4. Sebastian Vettel has another team change in him
And this will happen sooner rather than later.
Vettel and Leclerc had a rough first season together. That could improve but I do not think this is something that can last more than two more seasons. Vettel bolted from Red Bull after one year where Ricciardo beat him in the championship after having taken the title in four consecutive seasons.
Leclerc could easily be the top Ferrari again in 2020. Not only could Leclerc be the top Ferrari but he could thoroughly rout Vettel. The 2019 season ended with Leclerc up 24 points on Vettel and scoring double the number of victories. The 2020 season could be one where Leclerc is third in the championship with three or four victories while Vettel is fifth with zero or one victory if he is lucky. Vettel is not going to stick with Ferrari in 2021 if that is the case.
I do not think Vettel will completely walk away from Formula One after Ferrari. It has been rumored. Bernie Ecclestone voiced that is what he thinks will happen but at the end of 2020 Vettel will be 33 years old. He will have too much time on his hands.
Where would he go?
With Verstappen locked up at Red Bull until 2023 that possible reunion will have to wait a little longer. If Hamilton bites and goes to Ferrari then I think Mercedes is a possibility. A downturn in results might sway Mercedes away from Vettel but Vettel is a four-time champion and third all-time in victories. Mercedes may decide to take its chances.
The new regulations could bring an unexpected team forward. Alfa Romeo could take a swing at Vettel. Kimi Räikkönen is not going to be there forever. It might be the Ferrari B-Team now but in two years it might be fighting with Ferrari. You have to think with the grand prix history Alfa Romeo has it would like to be fighting for victories and fighting to add to that glory established seven decades ago. Vettel could be the driver that brings Alfa Romeo back to the top of the grand prix world.
5. Mark Webber's record for most races before first victory is broken
Webber set this record at his 130th race when he won the 2009 German Grand Prix.
Currently, three active drivers have more than 130 races and have yet to win a grand prix. Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez each have 179 grand prix to their names and Romain Grosjean has 166 grand prix.
Hülkenberg does not have a ride for 2020 and at 32 years old with a large crop of youngsters already in Formula One and with more waiting to break in he may never make it back but you never know. Even if he does it likely will not be with a team favorited to get victories.
Grosjean seems to be closing to out the door. Haas really doesn't seem in love with him but are keeping him because they have no clue where to turn. No one else is going to give him a shot once he is done with Haas. It likely will not be Grosjean unless he has a very fortunate day in 2020 with Haas.
Pérez could do it. He is the one driver in average equipment that has gotten on the podium regularly. He will be 30 years old at the end of the month. Pérez could have one more move to a big team in him. If Vettel is out at Ferrari after 2020, and Hamilton decides to stay at Mercedes, Pérez would be the veteran to pair with Leclerc. Pérez will take a race victory here and there to being Leclerc's wingman.
If Vettel retires and Hamilton moves to Ferrari, Pérez would be a wise choice for Mercedes.
Those three aside, Carlos Sainz, Jr. set the record for most races before a first career podium in 2019. He has entered 102 races and has yet to win, it does not appear likely he will win in 2020, which means entering 2021 he could be on 124 races without a victory and McLaren will be returning to Mercedes-Benz engines for 2021. It would not be crazy if Sainz, Jr. won a race in the middle of 2021.
Kevin Magnussen has been in one more race weekend than Sainz, Jr. Magnussen will most likely not win a race in 2020 and he seems far-fetched he could win in 2021 but stranger things have happened.
Daniil Kvyat is on 95 races. He has some work to do but he could hang on for another two seasons and late in 2021 steal a victory. Maybe he is Leclerc's number two after Vettel leaves Ferrari.
Maybe the 2021 season is Leclerc's coming out party and the Monegasque driver wins nine races with Kvayt consistently finishing third to fifth but once we get to the 17th round when it is clear Leclerc will be champion Ferrari decides this race will be for Kvyat and Leclerc can settle for a good points haul in third and maybe that race is... I don't know... in Russia and... maybe a prominent world leader is there to hand the trophy to the race winner... and that race winner just happens to be the Russian Kvyat... and it would look good in the host country and that host country would be feel a lot of national pride seeing such an event occur that it would almost feel scripted.
It is just a wild conjuring of the mind. I am not saying it will happen but who is to say it could not happen?
6. Non-Big Three teams combine to win at least eight grand prix
Eight is a low number but Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari and Red Bull have combined to win 139 consecutive races.
The last victory not by one of those three teams was the 2013 Australian Grand Prix with Lotus and Kimi Räikkonen.
There were 198 Formula One races in the 2010s. Teams not named Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari and Red Bull combined to win 21 of them. The breakdown was five in 2010, six in 2011, ten in 2012 and one in 2013. McLaren won 18 of those 21 races. Lotus won twice. Williams won once.
Twenty-one of 198 races is only 10.6%. That is very low. We are probably going to exceed 198 races in the 2020s. The 2020 calendar is made up of 22 races. Liberty Media is keen on a 25-race schedule. I do not know when we will get there but we probably will get there. Figure that we average 23 races a season in the 2020s and we get 230 races total, 10.6% would be 24.38 races. Eight races would be 3.47%. Since 2013, the percentage is 0.714%.
Like I said before, something is going to change. Something has to change. We can have three dominant teams. There have been plenty of periods where there were only three dominant teams in Formula One but Formula One cannot continue with three teams winning 99.28% of the races over seven seasons.
Don't get me wrong, Formula One cannot have three teams combine to win 96.53% of the races but it would be a start and it is a low bar to clear. It is the bare minimum Formula One has to meet this decade. It shows progress, not good enough progress, but progress nonetheless.
7. There will be a change to the qualifying format
Every decade there is a qualifying change and it doesn't mean there is something wrong with the format.
Formula One changed the knockout format for two rounds in 2016. It was only two rounds but Formula One still changed it.
Qualifying is an easy thing to change and it is low risk. Yes, the 2016 change did not work, but it was worth a shot. You can toy with qualifying in hopes of mixing up the grid and improving the racing. Ultimately, if a qualifying format change is made, even if it is hated but at the end of a grand prix on Sunday people are talking about how great the race was people would come around to the qualifying change.
The prime candidate to be the next qualifying format is a reverse grid race. It has been floating out there for a few years and was prominently out there in 2019. It was even proposed to use reverse grid races for three rounds in 2020. I think we will see it at least once. Formula One will try it. I am not saying it is going to stick. I am not saying it is going to make it a full season. I am not saying reverse grid races will be introduced at the start of 2021 and make it all the way to 2030.
I say Formula One will try it once and if it fails we will be back to the knockout format that is beloved and we will all move on with our lives.
8. A new engine manufacture joins Formula One
This seems like something Formula One needs to happen. The only manufactures to join in the 2010s were Cosworth and Honda.
Cosworth returned in 2010 after it exited following the 2006 season only to exit again after 2013 when its teams were Williams for two seasons, the Tony Fernandes-led Lotus for a season, the floundering HRT program for three excruciatingly painful three seasons and the Virgin/Marussia outlet for four seasons.
Honda withdrew from Formula One after 2008 and was back in 2015 with McLaren, where it had three tumultuous seasons, but it has been with Toro Rosso for the last two years and in 2019 it paired with Red Bull and won two races.
Let me be clear, new does not mean completely new. It means new compared to the 2010s.
I am not sure any completely new manufacture will come in. I think it is a little too late for Kia or Hyundai to make an attempt. It either were to join Formula One it would have been done with Toyota in the 2000s and it would have corresponded with the Korean Grand Prix.
I do not think we will see a Chinese manufacture like Geely get into Formula One but a decade is a long time. Let's see how the world changes.
What manufactures could return?
Ford? No. I think it is too much money and it would not want to be a factory program but Ford will not see a team worry partnering with.
BMW? Perhaps but I think it is in the Formula E boat firmly and is going in the opposite direction of Formula One.
Porsche? Porsche has always been the manufacture with Formula One pedigree but never in Formula One. Similar to BMW, I think Porsche is in Formula E but I think it is more likely to see Porsche join Formula One in the 2020s than BMW. That doesn't mean I think it will happen but if you said one of these two will be in Formula One at some point in the next ten years I would take Porsche.
Aston Martin? Now there is a strong possibility. It already has the Red Bull connection and Red Bull and Honda are good now but Honda has been on the fence the last few years. The program is making strides but if feels like more has to be done in 2020 for Honda to stick around.
The other possibility with Aston Martin is Lawrence Stroll is rumored to be purchasing Aston Martin. Stroll owns part of Racing Point. Racing Point is a terrible team name. Racing Point becoming a factory Aston Martin program would be better for everyone involved. That might be the answer.
Now, Stroll has to purchase Aston Martin of course. Stroll would not be the first wealthy man to be linked to an automobile company not to buy it. In the early days of 2020, it is the most likely possibility.
9. Formula One visits four new countries
And we are not going to count Vietnam, which debuts in April.
In the 2010s, Formula One visited South Korea, India, Russia and Azerbaijan for the first time. The decade before that had five new countries join the Formula One schedule, Bahrain, China, Turkey, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates.
We are going to be running out of countries. Thirty-three countries will have hosted a Formula One grand prix once Vietnam takes place.
What are the options?
Let's consider countries that have tracks. Qatar has the Losail International Circuit and already hosts a MotoGP round. The Middle East has two races but should Bahrain fall off or the series want to expand to three Middle East races then Qatar is the number one option.
Finland has the KymiRing, which opened in August 2019 and will host MotoGP's Finnish Grand Prix in July. Finland has a rich history of Formula One world champions. The last 20 years has seen Formula One move away from European races but you never know what country could step into the role.
Thailand has a new driver on the Formula One grid and it has the Buriram International Circuit, which already draws 100,000 people for the Asian Le Mans Series. I think Thailand will host a Formula One race sooner rather than later, especially if Alexander Albon wins at Red Bull. It could be paired with Singapore at the start of the final third of the season or it could be paired with Vietnam. Or it could be a rotating round in a few years with either of those places.
Returning to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has been throwing around a lot of money of late. It hosted Race of Champions not long ago, it hosted the Formula E season opener the last two seasons and it currently hosts the Dakar Rally. I think there is too much money around for this not to happen at some point in the next decade. The Reem International Circuit opened in the late-2000s and though it has not hosted anything major other than Porsche GT3 Cup Middle East it could be upgraded or an entirely new multi-billion dollar track could grow out of the sands.
What are some crazier options?
For all the motorsports success, New Zealand has never hosted a Formula One grand prix. This is a stretch but the home of McLaren, Hulme, Dixon, Hartley, McLaughlin and Richards should host a grand prix on motorsports success alone. It needs a circuit upgraded or a new one constructed. That is unlikely to happen but it would be nice to see and it would be a nice place to open the season with Australia.
Indonesia seemed possible when Rio Haryanto was on the grid for 15 minutes. I still will not rule it out because Indonesia has a lot of people and it has a circuit, Sentul International Circuit, which once host GP2 Asia Series, A1GP and hosted MotoGP twice in 1996 and 1997.
Denmark was not long ago rumored to be a potential host of a Formula One race in Copenhagen. Like New Zealand, for all the motorsports success Denmark should host a grand prix but it is a smaller country. It is tough to find the room for a 2.8-mile circuit and a street course would be the easiest option but I am not sure the Danish streets are that accommodating to great racing action.
Now that Bernie Ecclestone is no longer in charge I think it is safe to say North Korea, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia are off the table but you never know with Liberty Media.
10. There will be an American grand prix winner
This is more of a pipe dream.
As we sit here in 2020, the last grand prix with an American driver winner was on August 27, 1978, when Mario Andretti won the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.
This drought will likely make it to 42 years. It is extremely unlikely any American driver will have a Friday practice run in 2020 let alone start a race let alone be in a car capable of winning a grand prix.
Something will have to change. Could we really go more than a half a century between American grand prix winners? There has to be one driver that will breakthrough. A lot of American drivers have gone to Europe and been moderately successful. There has to be one driver that can go there, win in Formula Three, win in Formula Two and get with the right team at the right time to win one grand prix.
I am not talking about Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel number of victories I am talking about one race. I am talking about Pastor Maldonado levels of victories. I would be ecstatic to see Giancarlo Fisichella levels of victories for an American driver.
There has to be one driver that will set his or her sights on Formula One and make it. We have seen drivers try and hit a wall and returned to the United States to run IndyCar and that is fine. Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi are making a living in IndyCar. Graham Rahal is doing the same. There has to be one kid who is just going to do it, who will not quit and will force a Formula One team to sign him or her and then make it hard for anyone to let that driver go.
This is a dream because if we are going into 2030 with 51 years since an American won a grand prix that is going to hurt. There have been plenty of talent American drivers in the last 41 years but Formula One was not on their radar. They could make a living and a great living running domestically. That is not going to change. The United States will continue to have a healthy domestic scene and it will be difficult for Americans to leave their comfort zone but I believe there will be one driver who will take on the challenge and not give up until he or she has stood on the top step of a Formula One podium.
Two sets of predictions down and two to go and, coincidentally, we will head to the United States for the final two sets of predictions. Coming up next will be the NASCAR predictions. Please check out the sports car predictions for the 2020s.
Thursday, January 9, 2020
Predictions For the 2020s: Sports Cars
Over the final weeks of 2019 we closed the year looking back at the decade, the best races and drivers, and reflecting on what happened.
In the final days of 2019, we do what we do every year and that is put predictions for the following year.
Considering how 2019 ended I thought about what if we planted some seeds and lets see how they sprout over the next decade?
A lot is going to happen and a lot of it could be inconceivable in the year 2020. Did anyone think in on January 7, 2010 that Audi would leave Le Mans, Alexander Rossi would win the 100th Indianapolis 500, Sebastian Vettel would win four consecutive championships but Lewis Hamilton would end the decade with more championships and within eight victories of Michael Schumacher's all-time record and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth would all retire before the decade even ended?
It might be crazy to make predictions but let's look at past trends, let's look at what history tells us and also let's use our gut a little bit. Let's make a decision based on the temperature of the water even though the temperature will eventually change.
This is the first of four parts that will come over the course of this month and we will start with sports cars.
1. A manufacture that did not win Le Mans in the 2010s does in the 2020s
Porsche and Toyota did not win at Le Mans in the 2000s but did in the 2010s.
Audi and Bentley did not win at Le Mans in the 1990s but did in the 2000s.
Mazda, Peugeot, McLaren and BMW did not win at Le Mans in 1980s but did in the 1990s.
Rondeau and Jaguar did not win at Le Mans in the 1970s but did in the 1980s.
Porsche, Matra, Mirage and Renault did not win at Le Mans in the 1960s but did in the 1970s.
Ford did not win at Le Mans in the 1950s but did in the 1960s.
Since the race returned after World War II, there has always been a cycle of manufacturers entering and exiting the top class of sports car racing and with the hypercar regulations entering for the 2020-21 seasons, we will see another change at the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
Toyota will be around but Peugeot will come back for the first time since 2011. Aston Martin is returning to the top class. Scuderia Cameron Glickenhaus will enter the class. Other manufactures will enter the class.
While other manufactures enter, others will leave. Audi called it quits in 2016. Porsche's LMP1 stint lasted only four seasons.
Toyota will eventually exit the FIA World Endurance Championship and history points that it will not make it through the entire 2020s. Toyota's exit will open the door for other manufactures.
We know of three manufactures with dreams of Le Mans but who else could emerge in the 2020s? Could Ferrari make a long-awaited return to the top class at Le Mans? Could Jaguar make a comeback? Will there be a manufacture that has never been to Le Mans that decides it wants to make an attempt and add its name to sports car history?
It is exciting to think about what could happen over the next ten years.
2. There will be a 24 Hours of Daytona winning car that also wins the 24 Hours of Le Mans
This means we will have some type of DPi/Hypercar convergence.
It is the first week of 2020. Right now it seems like we are trending toward the two sides of the pond and sports car racing getting onto the same page. IMSA wants more manufactures. WEC wants more manufactures. Instead of having two prototype classes that are both fledgling, let's have one set of regulations that allows everyone to play at Le Mans, Daytona, Sebring, Spa-Francorchamps, Road America, Kyalami, Monza, Long Beach, Fuji or Belle Isle.
This could all hit the fans and in 2023 the idea of DPi/Hypercar could be so dead that we could not believe it was ever on the plate. I hope that is not the case and I believe IMSA, the FIA and ACO will see this is the path that is best for all sides. This is what will get more manufactures involved.
I don't know what convergence will mean to both championships. It will still cost a lot of money to run a WEC program and adding an IMSA program will not be cheap. Would IMSA be ok with some manufactures just showing up for Daytona? Would IMSA want the 24 Hours of Daytona to become a race where mercenaries could dominate and we could have years between full-time IMSA teams winning its 24-hour race?
Could we see an evolution of the World Endurance Championship that includes the 24 Hours of Daytona as a co-sanctioned round but the WEC could include a round or two being dropped from the championship results in case manufactures decide to skip Daytona because two 24-hour races is too much or decides to run Daytona but skips another round so the budget to run a full season does not balloon out of control?
I feel like the 2020s will be a time where one umbrella will cover the top end of sports car racing.
3. Intercontinental GT Challenge will continue to struggle to get a stable round in the United States
The Intercontinental GT Challenge has been a fun series in its first few seasons and it brings together a handful of legendary tracks into one championship.
With that said, it has not found great footing in the United States. While races in Bathurst, Spa-Francorchamps and Suzuka seem to be set, IGTC could not get a race at Laguna Seca to draw many entries or fans and now the IGTC will remain in the United States and moves to Indianapolis.
The 2020 season will include Bathurst, Spa-Francorchamps, Suzuka, Indianapolis and Kyalami, arguably the most historic circuits for five continents. It sounds great but GT3 racing does not have a great draw in the United States. Add to that the Indianapolis race will take place in October, during football season. Add to it there is no serious television coverage of the IGTC. Add to it that American GT3 teams did not go to Laguna Seca, likely will not go to Indianapolis and a lot of those teams will be busy with IMSA duties. Add to it that even if 70,000 people show up to Indianapolis it will not look good because Indianapolis is a facility that can hold 250,000 and still have room for almost 100,000 more. Add to it Roger Penske now owns the joint and if this race is not breaking even he will drop it because he will not have the Indianapolis 500 and Brickyard 400 propping up one race.
I think the Indianapolis 8 Hours could have two or three years on the IGTC calendar but I could also see this being a one-and-done.
The IGTC might want to be in the United States but like a lot of motorsports the United States will not really care that the IGTC is here. If Indianapolis doesn't work, the IGTC could go to Austin or Road America or Watkins Glen or Homestead but I doubt any of those event would drastically better than what we have seen in Laguna Seca or what we except to see in Indianapolis. If the IGTC needs a fifth event there are plenty of places around the world that would do a better job than the United States.
4. The Indianapolis 8 Hours (or whatever it evolves into) sticks around
With all that said, I think sports cars have a future at Indianapolis.
With Roger Penske now in charge I think we could have the track shoot a little higher and go for big events.
There have been rumors on and off of an FIA World Endurance Championship race at Indianapolis. When Austin was in trouble, Indianapolis was in the conversation before the Super Sebring weekend was born but Super Sebring might not be as super as it is labeled. Year one was good for Sebring but it was not some great winner. The WEC event went too late on Friday and the race has moved up to the afternoon in 2020. Will a Friday race be a good draw in the United States or around the world?
If Sebring doesn't work out for WEC, Indianapolis will be waiting to snatch a date. I don't know if the race would remain eight hours or if it would be a six-hour race or if it could become longer, perhaps a ten- or 12-hour race, but I would put Indianapolis as the clubhouse leader for the next United States WEC round.
If it isn't WEC, Penske has an IMSA program. We have been talking about an IndyCar/NASCAR doubleheader and before Penske bought the place, Indianapolis Motor Speedway president Doug Boles suggested a great-American motorsports event with IndyCar, NASCAR and IMSA at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If it isn't some grand event with all three series coming together then perhaps IMSA could fit Indianapolis into the late-summer window of its schedule.
The IGTC race might not stick at Indianapolis but I think we will see a regular sports car event at 16th and Georgetown by the time this decade is over.
5. An Indianapolis 500 winner will win the Bathurst 12 Hour
And Scott Dixon could fulfill this prediction next month, as Dixon is driving for R-Motorsport Aston Martin.
Dixon aside, there seems to be a lot of interest in Bathurst and with the Bathurst 1000 being a difficult race to enter with Supercars regulations, lack of testing time and lack of seats in general, the Bathurst 12 Hour is an easier avenue to race at the Mount Panorama Circuit.
The Bathurst 12 Hour might have the same amount of entries in the top class as the Bathurst 1000 but each car has a three-car lineup, more than the driver pairings in the Bathurst 1000. There are greater possibilities in terms of manufactures and teams for drivers. An American team could enter the Bathurst 12 Hour and have a shot at winning, something that cannot be done with the Bathurst 1000.
Dixon is coming in 2020 but in the next few years we could see Will Power making a trip to his home country to tackle the mountain. We could see Alexander Rossi return and use his Bathurst 1000 experience to attempt the endurance race. Simon Pagenaud would likely take a crack at it. Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves are both in sports car racing now and having success. Running a different race and potentially winning it would only add to their legacies.
Fernando Alonso could complete the Triple Crown in 2020 and in 2021 be at Mount Panorama just looking to do things that have never been done before.
We have seen a lot of specialization in the past 20 and 30 years but in the last few years we have been seeing drivers branch out and run different events. It is getting more and more difficult for drivers to make a living in one series. That is a bad thing for the drivers but for fans and history fanatics it will see drivers go all over the globe to make a living. It will be a throwback to the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, an era everyone marvels at because drivers had to drive everything they could to get a paycheck.
A regional race like the Bathurst 12 Hour will become an international affair with drivers traveling from winter to summer looking to make a few bucks and hopefully a bit of history along with it.
6. GTE will see at least three new manufactures
If hypercar is going to get new manufactures than why shouldn't GTE?
This is more of a personal want. There are so many great GT cars out there and GT3 is loaded with manufactures, meanwhile, GTE is Ferrari, Porsche, Aston Martin and Corvette (but only in IMSA).
The only GTE manufacture shuffle we saw in the 2010s was Ford coming in and BMW coming back.
GTE could have eight or nine manufactures competing. I would love to see Honda bring the NSX into the class. Lamborghini has been stellar in GT3 racing. Bentley has a solid GT3 program. McLaren has won in GT3 in many series around the globe. Mercedes-AMG has been arguably one of the best GT3 manufactures in the last decade. Maybe GTE is how Audi gets back to Le Mans.
In the last few seasons, with manufactures exiting LMP1, GTE was where you could get excited about. Le Mans was fantastic when you had six manufactures competing and the WEC class GTE-Pro had ten strong entries.
A little more than a decade ago we had the FIA GT1 World Championship and two years ago it felt a GTE world championship could stand on its own, especially with a few more manufactures. We are a little further away from that in the year 2020 but I think there are manufactures that will not want to spend what it will cost to run in the hypercar class but will want to be at Le Mans and in the world championship. In that case, GTE will be the only option.
7. There will be an electric/hybrid class at the 24 Hours of Le Mans
I am not sure we are going to make it to 2030 but if we do we are heading to a stated date when many manufactures will be producing either only electric vehicles or every vehicle will at least have hybrid systems.
With that being the case we are bound to see GT cars having hybrid systems. I thought the last decade was when we would see hybrids in GTE, especially after Porsche ran the 997-GT3 R Hybrid and famously finished ahead of all the GT cars in the 2011 American Le Mans Series race at Laguna Seca.
That didn't happened but I think it is going to happen in the 2020s. The automotive world is going to force it. Change is going to come this decade. The class might not come until 2027 or 2028 or 2029 but it will come and the motorsport world is going to look different when this decade is over. It has to look different.
Different will not be bad. It is part of evolution and an electric class or a hybrid class will help the development of the road product. A race like Le Mans and a championship like the FIA World Endurance Championship is the best place to develop electric range and reliability. It is a place for fast-charging or battery-swap technology. The FIA and ACO should want to take on this challenge. Formula E has been a breeding ground for manufactures. If manufactures are going to be moving toward more electric technology in a car then the FIA and ACO will have to be inclusive to doing the same to keep the WEC alive.
8. The FIA World Endurance Championship visits at least four new tracks to this decade (excluding Monza and Kyalami) and will visit Australia
We already know Monza and Kyalami are coming in the 2020-21 season so this is really from 2021 to 2029, still plenty of time for more races to come and go.
There are only eight to nine races on the WEC calendar. Some races are stable, others not so much.
With only eight to nine races a season that means WEC can only hit so many tracks and markets and the series is open to some rotation. Some races are not going anywhere, Le Mans, Spa-Francorchamps, Silverstone, but the rest are open to replacements.
I think Australia will get a race because it is motorsports mad and The Bend Motorsports Park is going to be due for a big international race. The Bend has already made it know it wants a MotoGP event or World Superbike event. I think Formula One is just a little too out of reach for The Bend. I don't think The Bend will be to the 2020s what Portimão was to the 2010s, a promising venue when built but never got an event it deserved.
What other tracks could the series go to?
Suzuka has already been rumored to take over for Fuji. That seems reasonable.
I think Southeast Asia could be a promising market, as the Asian Le Mans Series race at Buriram drew over 100,000 people before and still draws a great crowd. If the Asian Le Mans Series can do that then I think the World Endurance Championship will want to be there.
If the series gets tired of Bahrain there are Dubai Autodrome and Yas Marina in the United Arab Emirates or Losail International Circuit in Qatar that could host Middle East rounds.
In Europe, there are plenty of circuits. Barcelona, Hockenheim, Imola, Red Bull Ring, the aforementioned Portimão, any of those places would do.
Then there is Indianapolis, which I said above could become a home for WEC should Sebring flounder. Also, as I said above, if there is DPi/hypercar convergence, the world championship could look very different and be formatted very differently to what we have today. Daytona could count toward the world championship for all we know. Maybe Road America somehow ends up the WEC calendar.
There are a lot of circuits out there and some will end up hosting WEC this decade.
9. Super GT and DTM will continue to fool around but struggle to maintain a long-term relationship
I am really excited about the Super GT/DTM partnership and the Class One regulations. There were two combined weekends this year with a few Super GT cars going to the DTM finale at Hockenheim and then there was the non-championship event in Fuji that saw DTM cars visit Japan. It was great and it was the collision of two worlds. Everyone is happy.
But like Ben and Elaine we are at the back of the bus and coming to terms with what just happened.
I guess the goal of similar regulations is to have BMW and Mercedes-Benz compete in the GT500 class and to have Honda, Nissan and Toyota compete in DTM. Do these manufactures have enough budget to support championships efforts in both series? I don't think so.
Ok then... what about a combined championship then? That is still going to cost more money than the programs already put out.
Right... how about more combined events? You mean shipping cars to Germany for one weekend and then cars to Japan for one weekend and having the cars run almost as an exhibition and not as full-fledged championship members with something to race for? That charade will only last so long and there appears to be little to gain for the Japanese manufactures to run one car each in one DTM weekend and vice versa for the Germany manufactures with a Super GT round in Japan.
It sounds great but can it really work out? I wish it does but I think it will be hard. DTM needs manufactures and I don't think Honda, Nissan or Toyota would commit the numbers necessary to prop up DTM because it would mean taking away from Super GT and that championship means more to those three makes.
DTM has to figure out how to stay alive and attracting more manufactures might mean moving away from what Super GT wants. I think we will have a few more combined weekends but come 2022 or 2023 if there is nothing serious between the two sides I think they will both go in separate directions.
10. There will a European Le Mans Series LMP2 champion that comes from a country other than the United Kingdom, France or Russia
In the 2010s, the LMP2 championship had a French team take the title four times, a British team take the title three times and a Russian team take the title three times.
The most recent LMP2 champion not to represent those three countries was in 2009 when the Portuguese Quifel ASM Team won the championship.
I don't think that can continue into the 2020s because of the nature of the LMP2 class. There is always going to be fluctuation with some teams deciding to tackle the FIA World Endurance Championship, some amateurs becoming professionals and some amateurs deciding they have enough with LMP2 and switching to GTE or to another championship or dropping out of racing altogether.
In 2019, the top team that wasn't French, British or Russian was the American DragonSpeed in fifth. The next best was Swiss Cool Racing in seventh. Portuguese Algarve Pro Racing was in ninth, the only other entry in the top ten to come from outside those three countries.
In 2018, Spain's Racing Engineering was second in the championship but a distant second, 34.25 points off the champions Russia's G-Drive Racing.
In 2017, Untied Autosports was second in the championship running under the American flag and 12 points behind G-Drive Racing.
In 2016, American DragonSpeed was again the best of the rest in fourth.
Nothing lasts forever and I am not saying DragonSpeed will win the title but someone from a country outside of the United Kingdom, France or Russia will be the LMP2 championships in ELMS at some point over the next decade.
A decade is a long time. There could be a German surge in LMP2 racing and all of a sudden the decade ends with five consecutive German champions. The Italians might have a period of LMP2 dominance in the middle of the decade. Inter Europol Competition could move up from LMP3 and win an LMP2 title, becoming the first Polish team to have that honor. Maybe Kimi Räikkönen decides the LMP2 class in ELMS is where he wants to race and he starts a Finnish team and it wins the championship one year. Anything is possible and we are bound to see something different.
This was the first of four Predictions For the 2020s and coming up next will be predictions on the decade for Formula One. That will come next week.
In the final days of 2019, we do what we do every year and that is put predictions for the following year.
Considering how 2019 ended I thought about what if we planted some seeds and lets see how they sprout over the next decade?
A lot is going to happen and a lot of it could be inconceivable in the year 2020. Did anyone think in on January 7, 2010 that Audi would leave Le Mans, Alexander Rossi would win the 100th Indianapolis 500, Sebastian Vettel would win four consecutive championships but Lewis Hamilton would end the decade with more championships and within eight victories of Michael Schumacher's all-time record and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth would all retire before the decade even ended?
It might be crazy to make predictions but let's look at past trends, let's look at what history tells us and also let's use our gut a little bit. Let's make a decision based on the temperature of the water even though the temperature will eventually change.
This is the first of four parts that will come over the course of this month and we will start with sports cars.
1. A manufacture that did not win Le Mans in the 2010s does in the 2020s
Porsche and Toyota did not win at Le Mans in the 2000s but did in the 2010s.
Audi and Bentley did not win at Le Mans in the 1990s but did in the 2000s.
Mazda, Peugeot, McLaren and BMW did not win at Le Mans in 1980s but did in the 1990s.
Rondeau and Jaguar did not win at Le Mans in the 1970s but did in the 1980s.
Porsche, Matra, Mirage and Renault did not win at Le Mans in the 1960s but did in the 1970s.
Ford did not win at Le Mans in the 1950s but did in the 1960s.
Since the race returned after World War II, there has always been a cycle of manufacturers entering and exiting the top class of sports car racing and with the hypercar regulations entering for the 2020-21 seasons, we will see another change at the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
Toyota will be around but Peugeot will come back for the first time since 2011. Aston Martin is returning to the top class. Scuderia Cameron Glickenhaus will enter the class. Other manufactures will enter the class.
While other manufactures enter, others will leave. Audi called it quits in 2016. Porsche's LMP1 stint lasted only four seasons.
Toyota will eventually exit the FIA World Endurance Championship and history points that it will not make it through the entire 2020s. Toyota's exit will open the door for other manufactures.
We know of three manufactures with dreams of Le Mans but who else could emerge in the 2020s? Could Ferrari make a long-awaited return to the top class at Le Mans? Could Jaguar make a comeback? Will there be a manufacture that has never been to Le Mans that decides it wants to make an attempt and add its name to sports car history?
It is exciting to think about what could happen over the next ten years.
2. There will be a 24 Hours of Daytona winning car that also wins the 24 Hours of Le Mans
This means we will have some type of DPi/Hypercar convergence.
It is the first week of 2020. Right now it seems like we are trending toward the two sides of the pond and sports car racing getting onto the same page. IMSA wants more manufactures. WEC wants more manufactures. Instead of having two prototype classes that are both fledgling, let's have one set of regulations that allows everyone to play at Le Mans, Daytona, Sebring, Spa-Francorchamps, Road America, Kyalami, Monza, Long Beach, Fuji or Belle Isle.
This could all hit the fans and in 2023 the idea of DPi/Hypercar could be so dead that we could not believe it was ever on the plate. I hope that is not the case and I believe IMSA, the FIA and ACO will see this is the path that is best for all sides. This is what will get more manufactures involved.
I don't know what convergence will mean to both championships. It will still cost a lot of money to run a WEC program and adding an IMSA program will not be cheap. Would IMSA be ok with some manufactures just showing up for Daytona? Would IMSA want the 24 Hours of Daytona to become a race where mercenaries could dominate and we could have years between full-time IMSA teams winning its 24-hour race?
Could we see an evolution of the World Endurance Championship that includes the 24 Hours of Daytona as a co-sanctioned round but the WEC could include a round or two being dropped from the championship results in case manufactures decide to skip Daytona because two 24-hour races is too much or decides to run Daytona but skips another round so the budget to run a full season does not balloon out of control?
I feel like the 2020s will be a time where one umbrella will cover the top end of sports car racing.
3. Intercontinental GT Challenge will continue to struggle to get a stable round in the United States
The Intercontinental GT Challenge has been a fun series in its first few seasons and it brings together a handful of legendary tracks into one championship.
With that said, it has not found great footing in the United States. While races in Bathurst, Spa-Francorchamps and Suzuka seem to be set, IGTC could not get a race at Laguna Seca to draw many entries or fans and now the IGTC will remain in the United States and moves to Indianapolis.
The 2020 season will include Bathurst, Spa-Francorchamps, Suzuka, Indianapolis and Kyalami, arguably the most historic circuits for five continents. It sounds great but GT3 racing does not have a great draw in the United States. Add to that the Indianapolis race will take place in October, during football season. Add to it there is no serious television coverage of the IGTC. Add to it that American GT3 teams did not go to Laguna Seca, likely will not go to Indianapolis and a lot of those teams will be busy with IMSA duties. Add to it that even if 70,000 people show up to Indianapolis it will not look good because Indianapolis is a facility that can hold 250,000 and still have room for almost 100,000 more. Add to it Roger Penske now owns the joint and if this race is not breaking even he will drop it because he will not have the Indianapolis 500 and Brickyard 400 propping up one race.
I think the Indianapolis 8 Hours could have two or three years on the IGTC calendar but I could also see this being a one-and-done.
The IGTC might want to be in the United States but like a lot of motorsports the United States will not really care that the IGTC is here. If Indianapolis doesn't work, the IGTC could go to Austin or Road America or Watkins Glen or Homestead but I doubt any of those event would drastically better than what we have seen in Laguna Seca or what we except to see in Indianapolis. If the IGTC needs a fifth event there are plenty of places around the world that would do a better job than the United States.
4. The Indianapolis 8 Hours (or whatever it evolves into) sticks around
With all that said, I think sports cars have a future at Indianapolis.
With Roger Penske now in charge I think we could have the track shoot a little higher and go for big events.
There have been rumors on and off of an FIA World Endurance Championship race at Indianapolis. When Austin was in trouble, Indianapolis was in the conversation before the Super Sebring weekend was born but Super Sebring might not be as super as it is labeled. Year one was good for Sebring but it was not some great winner. The WEC event went too late on Friday and the race has moved up to the afternoon in 2020. Will a Friday race be a good draw in the United States or around the world?
If Sebring doesn't work out for WEC, Indianapolis will be waiting to snatch a date. I don't know if the race would remain eight hours or if it would be a six-hour race or if it could become longer, perhaps a ten- or 12-hour race, but I would put Indianapolis as the clubhouse leader for the next United States WEC round.
If it isn't WEC, Penske has an IMSA program. We have been talking about an IndyCar/NASCAR doubleheader and before Penske bought the place, Indianapolis Motor Speedway president Doug Boles suggested a great-American motorsports event with IndyCar, NASCAR and IMSA at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If it isn't some grand event with all three series coming together then perhaps IMSA could fit Indianapolis into the late-summer window of its schedule.
The IGTC race might not stick at Indianapolis but I think we will see a regular sports car event at 16th and Georgetown by the time this decade is over.
5. An Indianapolis 500 winner will win the Bathurst 12 Hour
And Scott Dixon could fulfill this prediction next month, as Dixon is driving for R-Motorsport Aston Martin.
Dixon aside, there seems to be a lot of interest in Bathurst and with the Bathurst 1000 being a difficult race to enter with Supercars regulations, lack of testing time and lack of seats in general, the Bathurst 12 Hour is an easier avenue to race at the Mount Panorama Circuit.
The Bathurst 12 Hour might have the same amount of entries in the top class as the Bathurst 1000 but each car has a three-car lineup, more than the driver pairings in the Bathurst 1000. There are greater possibilities in terms of manufactures and teams for drivers. An American team could enter the Bathurst 12 Hour and have a shot at winning, something that cannot be done with the Bathurst 1000.
Dixon is coming in 2020 but in the next few years we could see Will Power making a trip to his home country to tackle the mountain. We could see Alexander Rossi return and use his Bathurst 1000 experience to attempt the endurance race. Simon Pagenaud would likely take a crack at it. Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves are both in sports car racing now and having success. Running a different race and potentially winning it would only add to their legacies.
Fernando Alonso could complete the Triple Crown in 2020 and in 2021 be at Mount Panorama just looking to do things that have never been done before.
We have seen a lot of specialization in the past 20 and 30 years but in the last few years we have been seeing drivers branch out and run different events. It is getting more and more difficult for drivers to make a living in one series. That is a bad thing for the drivers but for fans and history fanatics it will see drivers go all over the globe to make a living. It will be a throwback to the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, an era everyone marvels at because drivers had to drive everything they could to get a paycheck.
A regional race like the Bathurst 12 Hour will become an international affair with drivers traveling from winter to summer looking to make a few bucks and hopefully a bit of history along with it.
6. GTE will see at least three new manufactures
If hypercar is going to get new manufactures than why shouldn't GTE?
This is more of a personal want. There are so many great GT cars out there and GT3 is loaded with manufactures, meanwhile, GTE is Ferrari, Porsche, Aston Martin and Corvette (but only in IMSA).
The only GTE manufacture shuffle we saw in the 2010s was Ford coming in and BMW coming back.
GTE could have eight or nine manufactures competing. I would love to see Honda bring the NSX into the class. Lamborghini has been stellar in GT3 racing. Bentley has a solid GT3 program. McLaren has won in GT3 in many series around the globe. Mercedes-AMG has been arguably one of the best GT3 manufactures in the last decade. Maybe GTE is how Audi gets back to Le Mans.
In the last few seasons, with manufactures exiting LMP1, GTE was where you could get excited about. Le Mans was fantastic when you had six manufactures competing and the WEC class GTE-Pro had ten strong entries.
A little more than a decade ago we had the FIA GT1 World Championship and two years ago it felt a GTE world championship could stand on its own, especially with a few more manufactures. We are a little further away from that in the year 2020 but I think there are manufactures that will not want to spend what it will cost to run in the hypercar class but will want to be at Le Mans and in the world championship. In that case, GTE will be the only option.
7. There will be an electric/hybrid class at the 24 Hours of Le Mans
I am not sure we are going to make it to 2030 but if we do we are heading to a stated date when many manufactures will be producing either only electric vehicles or every vehicle will at least have hybrid systems.
With that being the case we are bound to see GT cars having hybrid systems. I thought the last decade was when we would see hybrids in GTE, especially after Porsche ran the 997-GT3 R Hybrid and famously finished ahead of all the GT cars in the 2011 American Le Mans Series race at Laguna Seca.
That didn't happened but I think it is going to happen in the 2020s. The automotive world is going to force it. Change is going to come this decade. The class might not come until 2027 or 2028 or 2029 but it will come and the motorsport world is going to look different when this decade is over. It has to look different.
Different will not be bad. It is part of evolution and an electric class or a hybrid class will help the development of the road product. A race like Le Mans and a championship like the FIA World Endurance Championship is the best place to develop electric range and reliability. It is a place for fast-charging or battery-swap technology. The FIA and ACO should want to take on this challenge. Formula E has been a breeding ground for manufactures. If manufactures are going to be moving toward more electric technology in a car then the FIA and ACO will have to be inclusive to doing the same to keep the WEC alive.
8. The FIA World Endurance Championship visits at least four new tracks to this decade (excluding Monza and Kyalami) and will visit Australia
We already know Monza and Kyalami are coming in the 2020-21 season so this is really from 2021 to 2029, still plenty of time for more races to come and go.
There are only eight to nine races on the WEC calendar. Some races are stable, others not so much.
With only eight to nine races a season that means WEC can only hit so many tracks and markets and the series is open to some rotation. Some races are not going anywhere, Le Mans, Spa-Francorchamps, Silverstone, but the rest are open to replacements.
I think Australia will get a race because it is motorsports mad and The Bend Motorsports Park is going to be due for a big international race. The Bend has already made it know it wants a MotoGP event or World Superbike event. I think Formula One is just a little too out of reach for The Bend. I don't think The Bend will be to the 2020s what Portimão was to the 2010s, a promising venue when built but never got an event it deserved.
What other tracks could the series go to?
Suzuka has already been rumored to take over for Fuji. That seems reasonable.
I think Southeast Asia could be a promising market, as the Asian Le Mans Series race at Buriram drew over 100,000 people before and still draws a great crowd. If the Asian Le Mans Series can do that then I think the World Endurance Championship will want to be there.
If the series gets tired of Bahrain there are Dubai Autodrome and Yas Marina in the United Arab Emirates or Losail International Circuit in Qatar that could host Middle East rounds.
In Europe, there are plenty of circuits. Barcelona, Hockenheim, Imola, Red Bull Ring, the aforementioned Portimão, any of those places would do.
Then there is Indianapolis, which I said above could become a home for WEC should Sebring flounder. Also, as I said above, if there is DPi/hypercar convergence, the world championship could look very different and be formatted very differently to what we have today. Daytona could count toward the world championship for all we know. Maybe Road America somehow ends up the WEC calendar.
There are a lot of circuits out there and some will end up hosting WEC this decade.
9. Super GT and DTM will continue to fool around but struggle to maintain a long-term relationship
I am really excited about the Super GT/DTM partnership and the Class One regulations. There were two combined weekends this year with a few Super GT cars going to the DTM finale at Hockenheim and then there was the non-championship event in Fuji that saw DTM cars visit Japan. It was great and it was the collision of two worlds. Everyone is happy.
But like Ben and Elaine we are at the back of the bus and coming to terms with what just happened.
I guess the goal of similar regulations is to have BMW and Mercedes-Benz compete in the GT500 class and to have Honda, Nissan and Toyota compete in DTM. Do these manufactures have enough budget to support championships efforts in both series? I don't think so.
Ok then... what about a combined championship then? That is still going to cost more money than the programs already put out.
Right... how about more combined events? You mean shipping cars to Germany for one weekend and then cars to Japan for one weekend and having the cars run almost as an exhibition and not as full-fledged championship members with something to race for? That charade will only last so long and there appears to be little to gain for the Japanese manufactures to run one car each in one DTM weekend and vice versa for the Germany manufactures with a Super GT round in Japan.
It sounds great but can it really work out? I wish it does but I think it will be hard. DTM needs manufactures and I don't think Honda, Nissan or Toyota would commit the numbers necessary to prop up DTM because it would mean taking away from Super GT and that championship means more to those three makes.
DTM has to figure out how to stay alive and attracting more manufactures might mean moving away from what Super GT wants. I think we will have a few more combined weekends but come 2022 or 2023 if there is nothing serious between the two sides I think they will both go in separate directions.
10. There will a European Le Mans Series LMP2 champion that comes from a country other than the United Kingdom, France or Russia
In the 2010s, the LMP2 championship had a French team take the title four times, a British team take the title three times and a Russian team take the title three times.
The most recent LMP2 champion not to represent those three countries was in 2009 when the Portuguese Quifel ASM Team won the championship.
I don't think that can continue into the 2020s because of the nature of the LMP2 class. There is always going to be fluctuation with some teams deciding to tackle the FIA World Endurance Championship, some amateurs becoming professionals and some amateurs deciding they have enough with LMP2 and switching to GTE or to another championship or dropping out of racing altogether.
In 2019, the top team that wasn't French, British or Russian was the American DragonSpeed in fifth. The next best was Swiss Cool Racing in seventh. Portuguese Algarve Pro Racing was in ninth, the only other entry in the top ten to come from outside those three countries.
In 2018, Spain's Racing Engineering was second in the championship but a distant second, 34.25 points off the champions Russia's G-Drive Racing.
In 2017, Untied Autosports was second in the championship running under the American flag and 12 points behind G-Drive Racing.
In 2016, American DragonSpeed was again the best of the rest in fourth.
Nothing lasts forever and I am not saying DragonSpeed will win the title but someone from a country outside of the United Kingdom, France or Russia will be the LMP2 championships in ELMS at some point over the next decade.
A decade is a long time. There could be a German surge in LMP2 racing and all of a sudden the decade ends with five consecutive German champions. The Italians might have a period of LMP2 dominance in the middle of the decade. Inter Europol Competition could move up from LMP3 and win an LMP2 title, becoming the first Polish team to have that honor. Maybe Kimi Räikkönen decides the LMP2 class in ELMS is where he wants to race and he starts a Finnish team and it wins the championship one year. Anything is possible and we are bound to see something different.
This was the first of four Predictions For the 2020s and coming up next will be predictions on the decade for Formula One. That will come next week.
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