Monday, February 17, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Filling The Gaps – 2020 IndyCar Grid

Twenty laps of the Daytona 500 were completed and rain has forced the remaining 180 laps to be completed on Monday. Rain delayed the Asian Le Mans Series race in Sepang and once the race was started a penalty in the closing minutes for a faulty taillight decided the race. Supercross played in the Floridian sand. A lack of snow hurt Rally Sweden. Formula E returned to Mexico City but on a larger course with no chicanes. IndyCar began testing in Austin and weather did not necessary comply but we have our first glimpse at what lays ahead of the 2020 season. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Filling The Gaps – 2020 IndyCar Grid
The first IndyCar test is in the books and after getting through two days of rain and cold weather we have seen cars on track and have an idea how things are lining up ahead of next month's season opener from St. Petersburg.

Most of the pieces are set but a few are still missing and with the season approaching that means the Indianapolis 500 is closer each day. With seeing a bunch of teams and drivers on track we need to sit down and see how everything is lining up.

Who will be full-time? Who will be part-time? Where could additional rides pop up for the month of May? This is where we try and answer those questions and we will go team-by-team in the process.

Team Penske:
This team led the test with Will Power but neither fellow full-time drivers Josef Newgarden nor Simon Pagenaud were second quickest in the team. That honor went to Scott McLaughlin, who will run the #2 Chevrolet at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and McLaughlin could run more races in 2020. One race McLaughlin will not contest is the Indianapolis, which is where Hélio Castroneves will fill the fourth car looking for his fourth Indianapolis 500 (Three full-time, four Indianapolis 500 entries)

Arrow McLaren SP:
Chevrolet saw a clear number two team pop up at the Austin test. Oliver Askew ended up seventh fastest with Patricio O'Ward in tenth. Combined with the four Penske cars, the two AMSP entries gave Chevrolet six of the top ten spots in testing (Two full-time) (Five full-time, six Indianapolis 500 entries.

Carlin:
The third best Chevrolet team in the test was Carlin. Max Chilton returned but was only 15th fastest. Sérgio Sette Câmara and Felipe Nasr split the #31 Chevrolet but both were outside the top twenty at the test. Nothing has been confirmed for the #31 Chevrolet for race drivers but it is believed Câmara and Nasr will figure into a few races and other drivers could circulate through the team. Chilton will run all the road and street course races and the Indianapolis 500 with the remaining four ovals still open for the #59 Chevrolet (Two full-time) (Seven full-time, eight Indianapolis 500 entries).

Ed Carpenter Racing:
Testing was not as good as Ed Carpenter Racing probably hoped for. Rinus VeeKay was 18th and Conor Daly was 25th. Ed Carpenter will run the ovals in the #20 Chevrolet and Daly will fill out a third entry for the team at Indianapolis (Two full-time, three Indianapolis 500 entries) (Nine full-time, 11 Indianapolis 500 entries).

A.J. Foyt Racing:
New drivers, same part of the timesheet for A.J. Foyt Racing. Charlie Kimball was 23rd, Sébastien Bourdais was 24th and Dalton Kellett was 27th out of 27 drivers. Tony Kanaan will run the #14 Chevrolet at the ovals. Kellett will occupy a third car at Indianapolis (Two full-time, three Indianapolis 500 entries) (11 full-time, 14 Indianapolis 500 entries).

DragonSpeed:
This team was not at the test but plans to have Ben Hanley run St. Petersburg and have an entry at Long Beach, Indianapolis, Texas, Mid-Ohio and Laguna Seca. No driver has been announced for the other five races (15 Indianapolis 500 entries).

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing:
Though not at the test, D&R will run at road and street courses for the first time since São Paulo 2013. The team will field Sage Karam at St. Petersburg, the two Indianapolis races and Toronto (16 Indianapolis 500 entries, 16 Chevrolets for the Indianapolis 500).

Andretti Autosport:
Alexander Rossi was the top Honda at the Austin test in second with Colton Herta rounding out the top five. Marco Andretti, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Zach Veach were 12th, 14th and 17th respectively at the test (16 full-time, 21 Indianapolis 500 entries).

Chip Ganassi Racing:
Scott Dixon was eighth at the test with Felix Rosenqvist in 11th and CGR newcomer Marcus Ericsson in 19th (19 full-time, 24 Indianapolis 500 entries).

Dale Coyne Racing:
Honda had three teams represented in the top ten at Austin but representing DCR was rookie Álex Palou in ninth with Santino Ferrucci in 20th (21 full-time, 26 Indianapolis 500 entries).

Meyer Shank Racing:
Ahead of the MSR's first full-time season, Jack Harvey was 13th at the Austin test (22 full-time, 27 Indianapolis 500 entries).

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing:
Rounding out the Honda lineup was RLLR, the team that won two races in 2019 and had two drivers in the top ten of the championship. Graham Rahal was 16th and Takuma Sato was 22nd in the test (24 full-time entries, 29 Indianapolis 500 entries, 13 Hondas for the Indianapolis 500).

We are looking at two-dozen cars at every race and 26 cars for St. Petersburg, which would tie 2008 and 2012 for most St. Petersburg entries. It is ok to feel good with those numbers. We are also five entries away from the magic number of 33 for Indianapolis and that is with Honda down three to the Chevrolets. Where could additional entries come from?

Andretti Autosport is going to have a sixth entry at Indianapolis, whether it is Fernando Alonso or not is another story but that is 30. Dale Coyne Racing has run a third car regularly in recent years and I think it will again. That is 31. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing ran an additional car last year and it is on-and-off. Some years it does, other years it doesn't and the team is talking about filling an additional entry for 2020 so that can be penciled in as the 32nd entry.

Going back to the Chevrolet camp, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing ran two cars last year. I am not sure if running additional races will curb that program but the team had a good relationship with J.R. Hildebrand the last two years. It would not be a surprise if D&R ran two again this year and got the grid to 33 entries.

Will we have enough entries from bumping?

AMSP could run a third car and a third car has been highly discussed. I think we see it. That is 34 entries. Carlin ran three entries last year at Indianapolis. That was a little different circumstance as it added Patricio O'Ward late in the going and O'Ward had the Indy Lights scholarship, which guarantees an Indianapolis 500 entry. After seeing two of three cars miss in 2019, I think Carlin might stick to two entries but if the money is there we cannot rule out the team rolling out a third car and boasting the grid to 35 entries.

Juncos Racing is trying to get back to the Indianapolis 500 and it would be a welcome sight to see that green-team back on track. That could be 36 entries. Clauson-Marshall Racing has been silent since the checkered flag in last year's race, where Pippa Mann finished 16th and completed all 500 miles in the team's first race. The team did run with support from A.J. Foyt Racing and I am not sure if Foyt's third car in-house means it will not be able to have the same relationship with CMR in 2020. If CMR can make it back we could have 37 entries.

I don't think there will be 37 entries because the breakdown above would be 21 Chevrolets and 16 Hondas and that is mostly because of the AMSP switch to Chevrolet. What would have been a 19-18 split in favor of Honda now sees Chevrolet take on the bulk of the entries because of AMSP switching sides. Last year, there were 18 Honda entries and 18 Chevrolet entries. In 2018, Honda had 19 entries to Chevrolet's 16 entries.

I do not think either manufacture is going over 19 entries and because of the shift of AMSP and Chevrolet taking on more teams I am not sure we are going to see as many one-offs as in other years from both manufactures. Chevrolet has to already make up for AMSP and Honda will have fewer teams, which means fewer possibilities for expanding.

The good news is it is the middle of February and we have 29 entries solidly down on paper. Where could more entries come from? I think Chevrolet will go to 19 entries. I think we will see AMSP run a third car, I think the second D&R car will be back and I think Juncos will return.

The problem is the Honda side is much more limited. I think we will see extra entries from Andretti, Coyne and RLLR but that is it. I do not see Ganassi adding a fourth car. I do not see Andretti, Coyne or RLLR adding two additional entries for May. I do not think Meyer Shank Racing will be fielding a two-car program.

That would leave us with 35 entries, which is down one entry from last year, but still a respectable number.

If we want to get into the driver pool, of the 29 Indianapolis 500 entries, 28 have a driver with DragonSpeed the one still undetermined. Fernando Alonso, James Hinchcliffe, Pippa Mann, Spencer Pigot, Oriol Servià, Jordan King, J.R Hildebrand, Sébastien Bourdais, Kyle Kaiser, Matheus Leist, Ben Hanley and Ed Jones are all drivers that were entered for the 2019 Indianapolis 500 with no announced plans for 2020. That is 12 drivers. King, Leist and Jones likely will not be be back but that still leaves nine drivers as possibly entries and this is not including any other drivers who want to make an Indianapolis debut or a return to the Speedway.

I want to end this by saying I am happy with what the grid looks like for the full season and for Indianapolis. I am happy Bourdais, Kanaan and Kellett will be splitting a car. I am happy we could see Nasr and Câmara split a car and a few other drivers could run for Carlin. I am happy DragonSpeed is coming back and we could see Hanley share that entry with at least one other driver, Colin Braun has been the rumored linked to DragonSpeed. I am happy Dreyer & Reinbold Racing will run more than Indianapolis and Karam is the team's driver of choice. I am happy Meyer Shank Racing will be full-time, Daly is getting to run a large majority of the schedule and Team Penske is giving McLaughlin a shot in IndyCar.

Would it be nice if Bourdais, Kanaan, Nasr, Câmara, Daly, Hinchcliffe and Karam were all full-time? Would it be nice if Pigot, Hildebrand and Kaiser were all full-time as well as Gabby Chaves? Of course all those things would make IndyCar greater but we have to be realistic and know 33 full-time entries is not possible. It would be too much of a good thing. IndyCar is not at a point where it could support 33 full-time entries. That many full-time entries would cause many headaches in terms of making sure road and street courses have enough pit and garage spaces, enough spare parts are available and Honda and Chevrolet having enough engines and engineers for that many entries over 17 races.

When taking into everything IndyCar has and though it is not perfect it is pretty damn good.

Champion From the Weekend
Igor Fraga won the Toyota Racing Series championship with two victories at Manfeild's Circuit Chris Amon, including victory in the New Zealand Grand Prix. Tijmen van der Helm won the second race of the weekend

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Igor Fraga and Tijmen van der Helm but did you know....

Mitch Evans won the Mexico City ePrix, leading all 36 laps in the process.

The #45 Thunderhead Carlin Racing Dallara-Gibson of Ben Barnicoat, Harry Tincknell and Jack Manchester won the 4 Hours of Sepang. The #9 Graff Norma-Nissan of David Droux, Eric Trouillet and Sébastien Page won in LMP3. The #88 Team JLOC Lamborghini of Yuya Motojima, Yusaka Shibata and Takashi Kogure won in GT.

Noah Gragson won the NASCAR Grand National Series race from Daytona, his first career victory in the series. Grant Enfinger won the Truck race, his first victory in 28 starts.

Elfyn Evans won Rally Sweden, his first victory since the 2017 Wales Rally GB. .

Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from Tampa Bay, his third victory in 2020 and Tomac has the championship lead.

Coming Up This Weekend
Week two of the NASCAR season from Las Vegas.
The FIA World Endurance Championship makes its first of two stops in the United States at Austin.
Supercars open the 2020 season in Adelaide.
The Asian Le Mans Series seasons conclude at Buriram.
Supercross is in Arlington for a Triple Crown weekend.