It is February and that means it is time to start previewing the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season. The first preseason test will be held in a little over a week at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas and it will be the first major test with every team using the aeroscreen.
The first IndyCar team preview will look at Chip Ganassi Racing, which is coming off a successful but slightly disappointing 2019 season. Scott Dixon was not able to successfully defend his championship but the New Zealander did pick up two more race victories, including a thrilling 1-2 Ganassi finish holding off the charging Felix Rosenqvist. Rosenqvist took Rookie of the Year honors with a sixth place championship finishes though there were a few patches, especially on ovals. Ganassi has retained both drivers for 2020 but there has been a slight addition to the team.
2019 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 2 (Belle Isle II, Mid-Ohio)
Poles: 1 (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 4th (Scott Dixon), 6th (Felix Rosenqvist)
2020 Drivers:
Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda
Coming to IndyCar from Formula One, Ericsson made his debut with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports and it trying start to his rookie season.
Ericsson's debut at St. Petersburg was abruptly halted after a punctured radiator ended his race after 54 laps. He bounced back at Austin, spending a good chunk of the race in the top ten before a violation for an unsafe release in the pit lane on his final stop put him to the back of the field. Barber was the first blemish-free race for the Swede, driving from 20th to seventh.
A first lap accident at Long Beach started a rough patch of races. The damage from lap one was insurmountable and Ericsson settled for 20th in Southern California. His Grand Prix of Indianapolis debut saw him start ninth but the promising starting position was tossed aside after a spin exiting the final turn on lap 11. He had another strong race going in his Indianapolis 500 debut, starting 13th and remaining in that area for most of the race before a spin in the pit lane caused damage, put him two laps down and led to a 23rd place finish.
Belle Isle started with a 13th place finish but race two start Ericsson use strategy and caution to get to the front and saw him pick up a runner-up finish. This was followed with an encouraging race at Texas with him going from 14th to seventh, finishing ahead of Sébastien Bourdais, Will Power, Marco Andretti, Conor Daly, Felix Rosenqvist, Ed Carpenter and Spencer Pigot.
The second half of the season was much rougher for Ericsson. He was 13th at Road America, suffered damage on lap one at Toronto, which was not his fault but it put him four laps down immediately. He had a possible top five at Iowa thrown away because of an improper pit entry. Takuma Sato ran into him at the start of Mid-Ohio, knocking Ericsson into his teammate James Hinchcliffe and damaging the car to the point it could only complete two laps.
Ericsson made it through Pocono in 12th, was 16th at Gateway, missed Portland because Alfa Romeo called him back to standby for a sore Kimi Räikkönen and he ended the season with an 11th at Laguna Seca.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Ericsson made it out of the first round of road/street course qualifying only twice in 2019.
3: Top ten finishes in his first nine starts in 2019.
7: Consecutive finishes outside the top ten to close the 2019 season.
Predictions/Goals:
The move from Schmidt Peterson Motorsports to Chip Ganassi Racing brings higher expectations and 17th in the championship is not going to be good enough for Ericsson this time around. He has to be contending for top ten in the championship.
Ericsson had plenty of promising runs in 2019 but the results did not pan out. He probably should have had five or six top ten finishes last season. Ovals did not seem to be out of his element and some of his more promising runs were at Indianapolis, Texas and Iowa. The only problem is the results only showed at Texas.
Qualifying results will have to improve. Ericsson is going to have to advance from the first round of qualifying more than twice and he only started in the top ten twice. He must at least keep pace with his teammates. What does that mean? If he is the worst Ganassi qualifier, he cannot be starting seven or eight positions behind the next best Ganassi driver. If Dixon and Rosenqvist both advance to the second round of qualifying he has to make it as well. If Dixon and Rosenqvist are starting on rows three and four for the Indianapolis 500 than Ericsson needs to be no worse than row six.
I think Ericsson will improve. He wasn't reckless in 2019. He made a few mistakes but none of those were egregious. He drove smart races and I think if he does that again but with Chip Ganassi Racing he will finish further up the running order. I do think Ericsson could be good and still put up lackluster numbers. You can drive smart and only finish 14th. This could be a year where Ericsson has six top ten finishes, breaks into the top five twice or three times but last year Ericsson's teammate James Hinchcliffe had a podium finish and eight top ten finishes and was 12th in the championship. This could a year Ericsson is pleased with but Ganassi is not.
He will likely be the third of the three Ganassi drivers but history shows the third Ganassi driver stills end up in the top ten of the championship or at least with a fighting chance at it.
Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Dixon's title defense started with an encouraging runner-up finish at St. Petersburg. A tough day followed at Austin but Dixon bounced back with three podium finishes in the next three races. The toughest pill to swallow was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where Dixon led 39 laps and appeared set to take a victory with five laps to go but Simon Pagenaud chased down Dixon in the wet and completed an astonishing pass in turn nine.
Qualifying pace was not the greatest at Indianapolis but the Indianapolis 500 was developing into a top ten finish for Dixon before he suffered damaged in the final accident with 22 laps to go and he had to nurse the car home to a 17th place finish. Belle Isle saw one of Dixon's few mistakes, brushing the inside barrier in turn seven while in a podium position. The next day, everyone else had trouble and Dixon skating through clean and took his first victory of the season.
The pace was there for a top five finish at Texas but contact with Colton Herta late ended both of their races. He rallied at Road America, going from 12th to fifth and he made up those final positions late after a great battle with Herta, Felix Rosenqvist and James Hinchcliffe. July started with a pair of runner-up finishes at Toronto and Iowa and it ended with a victory at Mid-Ohio, his sixth at the track after running an aggressive three-stop strategy, using the alternate tire twice and holding off Rosenqvist by 0.093 seconds.
Pocono saw Dixon finish second in a race he was a contender for all of it but lost it when Will Power turned up the wick. Gateway was brutal after a punctured radiator ended his night and he was leading at Portland when an electrical issue took him out of contention. He entered Laguna Seca alive but needing a prayer for his sixth championship. He got a third place finish but it was not enough.
Numbers to Remember:
4: Dixon was fourth in the championship in 2019. It was only the second time since reunification Dixon did not finish in the top three of the championship.
14: Years since the last time Dixon was not in the top three of the championship for consecutive seasons when he was tenth, 13th and fourth from 2004 to 2006.
6: Victories behind Mario Andretti for second all-time.
12: Years since Dixon won six races in the 2008 season, his most victories in a single-season.
3: After having three consecutive seasons with only four podium finishes from 2014-26, Dixon has had seven podium finishes or more the last three seasons.
Predictions/Goals:
It is Scott Dixon. We know what we are getting: A Handful of victories and a challenge for the championship.
This is a season where Dixon has things to improve on. Last year, Dixon was in more incidents than we are used to seeing him involved in. Some were mistakes and Dixon is human. He is going to make mistakes. The most notable one was Belle Isle, where he clipped the barrier while running in a podium position. The other notable incident was Texas, where he and Colton Herta got together. It was more of a racing incident. It was a case where Dixon could have gave Herta a little more room and Herta could have given it another lap and waited until he had more of an opening. Either way, both drivers lost a top five finish.
Mechanical issues were another item that befell Dixon's season. He could not do anything about a punctured radiator at Gateway nor an electrical glitch at Portland. It feels like 2019 took care of two or three seasons worth of misfortune for Dixon. I don't want to say Dixon is going to have a spotless season and win the championship with a round to go with a career-best in victories and pole positions but would it surprise anyone if he did?
Dixon's results have only been improving the last few seasons and it is kind of staggering when you think about it. The 2014 to 2016 seasons would suggest a decline in form. Yes, he won the championship in 2015 but he had only four podium finishes in each of those seasons and from 2006 to 2013 had at least five podium finishes in each season.
He has responded with seven podium finishes in 2017, nine in 2018 and he had ten podium finishes in 2019 and did not win the championship. That is an absurd fact. If he does that again and doesn't win the championship than you have to think he will at least be second in points.
It feels like 2020 is going to be another three-victory season for Dixon and along with it, I think he is going to win at least one pole position. He did not win a pole position in either of the last two seasons. His most recent pole position was Indianapolis in 2017. If Dixon does win pole positions than I think the rest of the field has to be a little worried. He has won his last three championships with a combined three pole positions in those seasons. Only twice has Dixon won more than two pole positions in a season, those seasons were 2003 and 2008, championship seasons.
This year will see Dixon turn 40 years old and even at 40 Dixon is a scary championship contender. We have seen Dixon take the title through completely domination and skillfully being the best without putting up gaudy numbers. He can win this title anyway possible.
Felix Rosenqvist - #10 NTT Data Honda
The long-awaited IndyCar debut of Rosenqvist came and it was not disappointing. The Swede led 31 laps on debut at St. Petersburg. The one thing that cost Rosenqvist was traffic and being caught in slower cars before his first pit stop flipped track position and knocked him out of the lead. He was able to hold on for a fourth place finish.
Tire degradation was a big struggle for Rosenqvist in the next two races and it led to his accident at Austin and dropped him to tenth at Barber. Long Beach showed encouraging speed but an accident in the second round of qualifying meant the best he could start was 12th and all he could manage in the race was tenth.
Rosenqvist won pole position for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis but the pace did not transfer over to the race and he finished eighth. Indianapolis 500 qualifying was tough with Rosenqvist qualifying 28th. In the race, he made progress and looked to be a contender for a top ten before being collected in the final accident of the race, knocking him to a 28th place result. Belle Isle saw Rosenqvist on Dixon's heel for the entirety of the first race with both cars running in the top five. While Dixon retired, Rosenqvist brought it home in fourth. In the second race, Rosenqvist brushed the barrier and raced with suspension damage but spun late in the race while in the top ten.
Texas was a tough night with a 12th place result. Road America was an impressive drive from 18th to sixth and a fifth at Toronto followed. Rosenqvist clipped Sage Karam early in the Iowa race and he was not a factor in that one. Mid-Ohio followed and that was an impressive race for Rosenqvist. He had the speed and the team called the audible to put him onto a three-stop strategy. It was a race he very well could have won. After all, he was second by 0.093 seconds.
He was in the lap one accident at Pocono and had another learning experience on an oval with an 11th place finish at Gateway. The season concluded with a runner-up result at Portland and an emphatic drive from 14th to fifth at Laguna Seca after he was not allowed to advance from the first round of qualifying after bringing out a local yellow.
Numbers to Remember:
4: Rosenqvist qualified ahead of Dixon in four races in 2019 (St. Petersburg, Austin, Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Mid-Ohio).
4: Rosenqvist finished ahead of Dixon in four races in 2019 (Belle Isle I, Texas, Gateway and Portland).
7.91667: Average finish in road and street course races in 2019.
17.4: Average finish in oval races in 2019 with no top ten finishes.
Predictions/Goals:
I think Rosenqvist could have a standout season and if Rosenqvist starts out with a victory early he could be a championship contender.
There were plenty of times in 2019 where Rosenqvist kept up with Dixon and seemed to be pushing for top dog in the Ganassi stable. It happened in the first race of the season. Rosenqvist led 31 laps last year at St. Petersburg after starting ahead of Dixon and Rosenqvist qualified ahead of Dixon in the first two races and in three of the first five races.
Ganassi has gotten his heir apparent and all signs point to Rosenqvist being ready to take over the throne. He might even do it before Dixon decides it is time to move on.
The one issue with Rosenqvist is every race he finished ahead of Dixon were retirements for Dixon. That doesn't mean Rosenqvist doesn't have what it takes. Strategy is what put the Swede behind the New Zealander at St. Petersburg. Rosenqvist was hanging with Dixon in the first Belle Isle race before Dixon got into the barrier. The same was true at Road America, Mid-Ohio and Laguna Seca. The latter two races Rosenqvist could have won. There were plenty of races in 2019 where Rosenqvist appeared to have the better pace but ended up behind Dixon at the checkered flag. The 2020 season has to be when Rosenqvist beats Dixon heads-up, not because Dixon suffered some type of misfortune.
One reason Rosenqvist didn't get victories at Mid-Ohio or Laguna Seca were mistakes. He started poorly at Mid-Ohio and brought out a local yellow at Laguna Seca. Add to that an accident in the second round of qualifying at Long Beach and Roseqnvist had at least two more pole positions and two more great chances taken away before race day. He cannot make as many qualifying mistakes this year. We know he can go from 14th to fifth and 18th to sixth but he needs to qualify on one of the first two rows, get immediately to the front and stay there. He needs to make it easier on himself to win races.
People will probably give Rosenqvist the most grief for his oval results. He is going to have to improve. He showed promise at Indianapolis but the other races saw him be rather pedestrian. His best qualifying result on an oval was tenth at Gateway. His best finish was 11th at Gateway. He is going to need at least three top ten finishes on ovals if he is going to be in the title discussion.
Rosenqvist is going to win races this season. I think his oval results will improve but I do not see him necessarily contending for an oval victory in 2020. He could be a surprise championship winner but the field is deep. His biggest opponent is his own teammate but if he can beat Dixon than half the battle is over. Dixon regularly finishes in the top three of the championship. If Rosenqvist beats Dixon than he will likely be in the championship fight, where one or two results could be the difference between hoisting an Astor Cup and having to wait another year.
The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET
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