Friday, April 2, 2021

2021 Super Formula Preview

Another series is ready to kick off its 2021 season, this time from Japan. 

One of the most infatuating series in the world, Super Formula is ready for another season. Two years ago, there were seven different winners in seven races. Last year, there were six winners in seven races. 

While gaining global prominence in recent years for being a stopgap for promising international drivers, such as Stoffel Vandoorne, Pierre Gasly, Felix Rosenqvist and Álex Palou, the 2021 season will be a little more domestic due to pandemic conditions. Even some of Japan's top drivers may be reduced to cameo roles due to travel restrictions and other commitments. 

Schedule
Fuji will open the season on Easter Sunday, April 4 with Suzuka following on April 25. 

Autopolis will take place on May 16 ahead of Sportsland SUGO on June 20. The series will then go on a two-month break for the Olympic Games.

The season will resume on August 29 at Twin Ring Motegi before another month off. Okayama will host the penultimate round on October 3 before Suzuka closes out the seven-race season on October 31.

Teams:

TCS Nakajima Racing
Naoki Yamamoto: #1 TCS Nakajima Racing SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Yamamoto won the first Suzuka race and took the championship with 62 points. It was his third championship and second in the last three seasons. It was also his third consecutive season he had exactly three podium finishes. In Super GT, Yamamoto won the GT500 championship for the second time in three years with a thrilling victory in the season finale.

What to expect in 2021: Yamamoto has moved on from Team Dandelion Racing to Nakajima Racing saying he hoped to aim higher and not settle with the Dandelion organization, a team where he won a championship and was second in his other season. The testing pace was a little off for Yamamoto, as he was eighth at Fuji and about two-tenths off his younger teammate. I believe he will be fine. He will get on the podium, win a race and be in the championship conversation. 

Toshiki Oyu: #64 TCS Nakajima Racing SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Oyu won the second Suzuka race and he was second in the Fuji finale. He ended the season with four consecutive points finishes after opening the season with zero points through the first three events. He was sixth in the championship on 41 points, the top rookie in the series. 

What to expect in 2021: Oyu was second at the Fuji test and he ended 2020 on a good note. He has a difficult teammate to compete with. We saw Yamamoto teamed with Nirei Fukuzumi, a GP3 and Formula Two experienced driver, and Yamamoto remained on top. Oyu comes from the domestic ladder system. I think Oyu will give Yamamoto a run for his money. There is a chance he could top his elder teammate in the championship.

Vantelin Team TOM'S
Kazuki Nakajima: #36 Vantelin Team TOM'S SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Nakajima competed in only five of seven races due to FIA World Endurance Championship commitments. His best finish was second in the first Suzuka round. He scored 25 point and finished 11th in the championship. It was his third consecutive season without a victory after having a victory in six of his first seven seasons. In WEC, Nakajima won his third consecutive 24 Hours of Le Mans and he finished in the top two of every race but was only second in the championship.

What to expect in 2021: There is a concern Nakajima will miss majority of the season because of his WEC commitments with Toyota. Travel restrictions could keep him from running at Suzuka, Sportsland SUGO and Motegi. I don't know if his schedule congestion keeps him from being competitive in Super Formula, but after the last three seasons it is hard to see him returning to the level he was at when he first joined the series, though testing was encouraging.

Ritomo Miyata: #37 Vantelin Team TOM'S SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Miyata won 12 of 17 Super Formula Lights races and he was on the podium after 16 races, enough to take the championship with 153 points. Last year, he made two Super Formula starts as a substitute. He was ninth at Okayma and eighth at Autopolis. He has also competed in Super GT for the last three seasons with last year being hs first full year in GT500. His best finish as seventh with ten points from eight races.

What to expect in 2021: Miyata is another recent Japanese ladder system product who looks to fit right in. I would not be surprised if he won a race this season and ended up in the top five of the championship. He seems to be the leading rookie.

JMS P.mu/cerumo INGING
Sho Tsuboi: #38 JMS P.mu/Cerumo INGING SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Tsuboi won at Okayama and the Fuji finale, but his only other finish in the points was fourth in the second Suzuka race and he was third in the championship on 50 points. 

What to expect in 2021: Another strong season. Tsuboi had a breakout 2020, but inconsistency cost him the title. He has to clean that up. I think he will finish in the points more than last year. If he maintains the pace we saw in 2020, he could pull out the championship. 

Sena Sakaguchi: #39 JMS P.mu/Cerumo INGING SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Sakaguchi was vice-champion in Super Formula Lights on 116 points with four victories and 16 podium finishes. Sakaguchi was set to run at Okayama as a substitute for Kenta Yamashita, but the car failed on the grid and Sakaguchi was unable to start the race.

What to expect in 2021: Testing suggests 2021 will be a learning year for Sakaguchi. He is good, but not quite as good as fellow rookie Miyata. There is a sizable gap between him and his teammate Tsuboi. Tsuboi was 11th in the championship as a rookie. Some drivers need a year or two to get their footing. I think Sakaguchi falls just shy of the top ten in the championship, but has one or two good showings.

Docomo Team Dandelion Racing
Nirei Fukuzumi: #5 Docomo Team Dandelion Racing SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Fukuzumi was eighth in the championship on 29 points with his best finish being second in the second Suzuka race. Fukuzumi did win a Super GT race at Motegi and finished fifth in the GT500 championship.

What to expect in 2021: With Yamamoto gone, Fukuzumi is the top dog at Dandelion and he topped Fuji testing. I think he gets a victory this season and he could be a championship contender. The one thing that has hurt him over his first two seasons is he hasn't put himself in a top position often to be contending for victories. He has kind of been stuck fighting in the backhalf of the top ten. He has to raise his game this year.

Tadasuke Makino: #6 Docomo Team Dandelion Racing SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Makino was 12th in the championship with 20 points. His best finish was third at Autopolis. He was in the points in four of six starts and missed the finale due to meningitis. He was co-driver to Naoki Yamamoto as the two took the Super GT GT500 championship.

What to expect in 2021: We saw Makino take a step forward as a sophomore last season, but he did not accomplish much in his rookie season. He missed testing as he continues to recover for meningitis. I think that time out of the seat will hurt him. We are not sure if he will be good to go for a full season and Ukyo Sasahara will replace him for the season opener. Sasahara was impressive in the tests. Makino is facing pressure because Sasahara appears to be a capable driver. Makino's results have to be close to outstanding, although if Sasahara does great in the season opener, who is to say this will not be his car for the entire season?

Itochu Enex Team Impul
Yuhi Sekiguchi: #19 Itochu Enex Team Impul SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Sekiguchi was 14th in the championship with 17 points and his best finish was third at the second Suzuka race. His only other points finish was fifth in the second round at Okayama. It was his worst championship finish in his Super Formula career and it was the first time he did not win a race in a Super Formula season.

What to expect in 2021: Sekiguchi has fallen into this rut where he can put together one strong race a season, but no more than that. I think he will be fighting to make the top ten in the championship. Last year, he caught a bad break because he had problems on the grid keep him from starting two races. Those possibly cost him a handful of points and a few spots in the championship. His points total should go up.

Ryō Hirakawa: #20 Itochu Enex Team Impul SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Hirakawa won the season opener at Motegi, his was second at Sportsland SUGO and he scored points in five races. However, his 60 points put him second in the championship. In Super GT, Hirakawa ended up second in championship after his Toyota Supra ran out of fuel coming to the checkered flag in the final race, only to have Yamamoto pass him before for the victory coming to the line.

What to expect in 2021: Hirakawa can be champion. He fell short by the skin of his teeth last year. He has been emerging as this next great domestic product over the last five years. He could be leading the next wave of Toyota drivers internationally. A championship this season would do him wonders. No one would be surprised if he does it.

Kondō Racing
Kenta Yamashita: #3 Kondō Racing SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Yamashita was second in the season opener at Motegi, missed Okayama due to competing at Le Mans and he finished in the points in the final five races, but his best finish was fifth and he was seventh in the championship on 34 points.

What to expect in 2021: Yamashita was average in testing. He is a regular points scorer. I think he will end up just inside the top ten of the championship again. He could get a podium finish through strategy. He has the talent to win, but I don't think the pace will be there.

Sacha Fenestraz: #4 Kondō Racing SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Fenestraz was third in the season opener at Motegi, but he retired from four of the final six races with his other finishes being tenth and eighth. The Frenchman ended up 13th on 19 points.
 
What to expect in 2021: Fenestraz will miss the season opener due to visa issues. Yuichi Nakayama will drive at Fuji. Fenestraz has yet to test this year. Streaky would be a kind description for his 2020 results. I feel like 2021 could look the same. I don't understand why a driver who makes his career in Japan does not live in Japan full-time or at least figures out how to be in the country on time for his season opener. 

Team Mugen
Hiroki Otsu: #15 Red Bull Mugen Team Goh SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Otsu competed full-time in Super GT in the GT500 class for Nakajima Racing. he and co-driver Takuya Izawa were second in the penultimate round of the season from Motegi, but they were 12th in the championship on 31 points. He started the Super Formula finale at Fuji and was 13th.

What to expect in 2021: Otsu looked good in testing. He hovered in and around the top ten in both outings. I don't think he will beat his teammate, but a good season would be scoring points in four of seven races. 

Tomoki Nojiri: #16 Team Mugen SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Nojiri won at Autopolis and he finished in the points of the first six races, two of which were top five finishes. He won pole position for the Fuji finale, but retired and rounded out the top five in the championship on 47 points. 

What to expect in 2021: Testing results were encouraging as Nojiri was right in the middle of the top ten at Suzuka and Fuji. He has won a race each of the last two seasons and he has been in the top five of the championship each of the last two seasons. Nojiri's one problem is he has not been a regular podium finisher. Only once has he had multiple podium finishes in a season. If he wants to remain in the top five of the championship, I think he needs to have a career year. 

carrozzeria Team KCMG
Kamui Kobayashi: #7 carrozzeria Team KCMG SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Kobayashi had one finish in the points, fourth at the first Suzuka race. He was running at the finish of his other four starts. He missed two races due to Toyota LMP1 commitments. He won the World Endurance Drivers' championship with Mike Conway and José María López after winning four races and finishing no worse than third.

What to expect in 2021: Kobayashi has made 41 Super Formula starts over six seasons. He has won zero races. It is hard to fathom how such an accomplished driver has yet to win in this series. He does have five runner-up finishes. Similar to Nakajima, Kobayashi will have WEC commitments and that will eat into his season. He could win a race, but if he is limited to only four or five starts those are not a lot of opportunities, especially against drivers who are focused on Super Formula. He has not participated in any preseason testing. Kobayashi will miss Fuji and Kazuto Kotaka substitutes for him. Kotaka was third in Super Formula Lights last year with one victory and 11 podium finishes. 

Yuki Kunimoto: #18 carrozzeria Team KCMG SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Kunimoto was ninth in the championship on 29 points with his best finish being third in the first Suzuka race. He had three top five finishes. 

What to expect in 2021: While Kobayashi has not been at testing, Kunimoto has been slow. He was at the bottom of both Suzuka and Fuji tests. He has not won a race since his championship season in 2016. His best finish over the last seasons is third. All signs point to a dip in results from 2020.

B-Max Racing
Yves Baltas: #50 B-Max Racing SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Baltas did not compete in any series in 2020. His last start was in the 2019 Formula Renault Eurocup series at Monaco. He made only six starts in that series and his best finish was ninth at Silverstone. The rest of his junior formula career consists of ten starts in Euroformula Open and six races in the F4 British Championship. 

What to expect in 2021: I do not expect Baltas to last long. He had to miss the opening test due to travel restrictions and he will miss the season opener. He will likely go the way of Tristan Charpentier, who lasted only one race in Super Formula. B-Max had originally wanted to retain Nobuharu Matsushita, but Honda nixed that deal. I suspect someone else will run majority of the 2021 season in the #50 Honda. 

ROOKIE Racing
Kazuya Oshima: #14 ROOKIE Racing SF19-Toyota
What did he do in 2020: Oshima scored five points, one at Motegi, two at Sportsland SUGO and one in the second Suzuka race. He was 19th in the championship, his worst championship finish in a full Super Formula season.

What to expect in 2021: It is a single car team, Oshima hasn't scored more than seven points in any of the last four seasons. I expect him to score about five to seven points. 

Drago Corse with ThreeBond
Tatiana Calderón: #12 Drago Corse with ThreeBond SF19-Honda
What did he do in 2020: Calderón competed five races and her best finish was 12th in the Motegi season opener and the second Suzuka race.

What to expect in 2021: Calderón will be splitting this season with an LMP2 opportunity in WEC. She is still learning this car and series. Last year was not ideal for a rookie. I don't see her results improving that much. She might be able to pull out a point or two, but I don't see her scoring more than that.

Other Notes:
Four different teams have produced the last four champions. It is the longest stretch of champions from different teams since 1993-1997.

Yamamoto is aiming to become the first driver to successful defend a championship since Tsugio Matsuda in 2007-08.

Since Toyota joined the series in 2006, Honda has not won consecutive drivers' championships.

The last European champion was André Lotterer in 2011. Lotterer's 2011 championship is also the last time the champion missed a race during the season. The German won five of seven races that year.

Yamamoto won three races in his 2018 championship season. That is only time the champion has had at least three victories since 2012.

Last year, Yamamoto became the first champion after failing to score points in the season opener since Richard Lyons in 2004. Lyons was eighth in the season opener and only the top six finishers scored points that season. 

Baltas could become the first American to compete in the series since Jeff Krosnoff competed in the 1995 season finale at Suzuka. Krosnoff ran the entire season, and his best finish was ninth on two occasions. Krosnoff also had four top ten finishes in eight races.

Ross Cheever won ten races in an eight-season Super Formula career that spanned 1987-1994. Cheever was championship runner-up twice and he finished in the top three of the championship five times. 

The 2021 season opener from Fuji will be held at 12:55 a.m. ET on Sunday April 4.