Sunday, April 25, 2021

First Impressions: St. Petersburg 2021

1. Another flawless drive from Colton Herta has him as the second race winner of the 2021 season. Herta didn't do anything wrong today. He led from the drop of the green flag and the only time anyone was close was Josef Newgarden at the end of the first stint and because of the two late cautions. 

Herta pulled away on the opening stint on the alternate tires. Many struggled about halfway through the race and yet Herta was gone from the field. Newgarden closed in, but after that first stop and both cars were on the primary tires, Herta flew away from the field. I don't know the record for largest margin of victory at St. Petersburg, but if it wasn't for the late cautions Herta likely would have broken it. 

At 21 years old, Herta might be the most poised driver in IndyCar. It's either him or IndyCar. With many young drivers, especially those who enter in their teens, we have seen speed, but temper get in the way. We have seen those young drivers lose their cool. Herta is still 21 years old, but at the start of year three we haven't seen him have a tantrum. With Herta's relaxed attitude and consistent pace, he is going to challenge for the top spot multiple times this season and he will likely factor into who lifts the Astor Cup at Long Beach.

2. For a moment, last year's St. Petersburg race came to mind. When Colton Herta was presented the lead late in the going, a few mechanical issues knocked him down and Josef Newgarden slid through to take victory. With Newgarden on Herta's gearbox for two restarts, it felt like Newgarden was set to steal another one. Herta was clean and Newgarden had to settle for second, but IndyCar is in great hands. 

Newgarden also could fit most poised in IndyCar and it looks like he and Herta could be going at it for another decade. Both drivers were done after one lap at Barber. Both came back and got a result. They put last week behind them and put their heads down for race two. I think we are going to see these two drivers battle regularly this season.

3. Simon Pagenaud had not had a good day in a while, and even today he was forgotten because of Herta's dominance and Newgarden's challenge. Pagenaud has been off the last year and a half. I can't figure it out because for his entire IndyCar career he has been reliable and for the last year or so that speed hasn't been there. 

I want to say he has figured it out, but I need to see more than one race. He needs to be a regular top ten qualifier and really in or close to the top five in most races. This was the type of day Pagenaud needed though, and he deserves to celebrate.

4. Jack Harvey got a top five finish! Harvey struggled on the alternate tire, but he did not slip that far down the order. He was able to keep the car in the top five and he finished fourth. Too many times last year Harvey started in the top five and then ended up eighth or was caught out due to a caution and was 17th. He needs to convert that qualifying pace into results. If he can do that half the time, he will be in the top ten of the championship. If he does that 2/3rds of the time, he will be in the top five. 

5. Scott Dixon was fifth. He never really challenged the for the front, but Dixon got a top five result, and he can move onto Texas with confidence. He is fine. There is no need to worry about him. It is ok to just finish fifth. 

6. Takuma Sato was a big mover today. He looked strong from the start of the race and it did not take long for him to get into the top ten. This was a good day for him in sixth. 

7. Just like Sato, the man that joined him on row eight also look impressive today, and Marcus Ericsson went from 16th to seventh. Ericsson had a few of these races last year. He was a regular top ten finisher last year. If Ericsson can improve his qualifying pace, he will challenge for podium finishes and possibly even a victory. 

8. The weekend did not start on the right foot for Will Power, but his car improved, and he got into the top ten with some aggressive passes. It could have been a much worse weekend after Power ended up 20th. It was such a good day that Power is leaving St. Petersburg second in the championship. Most probably didn't think that was possible after qualifying.

9. Rinus VeeKay lost some spots early on the first stint and he struggled on the alternate tire, but it was not all lost. VeeKay kept the car in the top ten and he finished ninth. These aren't flashy finishes, but he doesn't have to be flashy. He is getting top ten results and Ed Carpenter Racing has not had a regular top ten finish since Josef Newgarden left. Also, VeeKay is still only 20 years old! He needs these days for his development.

10. Sébastien Bourdais had radio issues before rolling off pit lane for the pace laps and then he had contact put a hole in his front wing at the start. Despite these hardships, Bourdais kept it in the top ten. He lost positions late and finished tenth. Not bad, but it could have been better. A.J. Foyt Racing should be happy though.

11. Scott McLaughlin quietly finished in 11th. Sometimes as a rookie, going unnoticed can be a good thing. McLaughlin will build off this result. 

12. Felix Rosenqvist kept his cool on a day where neither Arrow McLaren SP entry was great. Romain Grosjean brushed the wall on at least three occasions and finished 13th. Ryan Hunter-Reay had a good start, but he lost some speed on the alternate tire at the end of that first stint and he slipped out of the top ten. Fourteenth is a little disappointing for him. 

13. Graham Rahal got caught out when his contact with Alexander Rossi in turn four cut Rossi's right front tire. When it came to turn five, Rossi couldn't make the corner, Rahal was stuck on the outside and Rahal got blocked off. Instead of pushing for a top five, Rahal was shuffled back to the tail of the field. This was a much better day and Rahal looked competitive. It was an unfortunate turn of events for both drivers. Rahal recovered somewhat and he was 15th. 

14. Conor Daly did nothing and ended dup 16th. I am not sure what happened to Álex Palou as he ended up 17th but maintains the championship lead.  Patricio O'Ward lost his cool in this one. He struggled on the alternate tires at the start and the car didn't have the balance on the primary tires either. He lost ground, he had contact with Ed Jones and he ended up 19th. When you see the composure of Herta and then see O'Ward for the second race boil over, for all the pace we have seen from O'Ward you have to think Herta is going to come out on top more often. 

Speaking of Ed Jones, I am surprised he has been this far off. He has been behind Grosjean both weekends. He was one of the slowest all weekend. I am surprised. It would be one thing if Grosjean was 11th and Jones was 14th and a quarter second was between them. That's not the case though. 

15. For how much contact we saw in today's race, what was the likelihood the only cut tires would be two Andretti Autosport cars after contact from two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars? First, it was James Hinchcliffe when Takuma Sato got to the inside of turn one. Second, it was Alexander Rossi after exiting pit lane when Graham Rahal had a head of steam up the inside of turn four. 

I thought both were racing incidents. Hinchcliffe really wasn't challenging Sato. He should feel a little upset after that one. Rossi should have lived to fight another day. I think he could have gotten Rahal a little later in that stint. Either way, both drivers find themselves in a slight hole after St. Petersburg. 

16. Jimmie Johnson's IndyCar experience continues. He just went a little too hot into the final corner and stalled after nudging the barriers. About 52 laps later, Johnson spun exiting turn three. Johnson deserves credit for taking a chance. He is really challenging himself. He hasn't been awful through two races. He is at least within touching distance to the rest of the field in practice, but the race is another animal. 

Also, Max Chilton retired due to a gearbox issue.

17. Credit to IndyCar. It let Johnson sit on the outside of the track and try to get the car going before throwing a caution. It did the same with Rossi's incident and Rossi got back going. Dalton Kellett pulled off course and parked in the open tarmac between turn one and the pit exit, and IndyCar didn't throw a caution for that. I am happy the series allowed the drivers to race and trusted them to respect the local yellows. 

18. New item to force push to pass usage: A driver must use a specific amount by a certain lap. If a driver does not meet that minimum usage, the team must serve a five-second penalty on its next pit stop. 

Let's take St. Petersburg as the example. Each received 150 seconds of push to pass for the race. Let's say a driver had to use at least 30 seconds by the end of lap ten. If you don't use 30 seconds, then it is a five-second penalty on your next stop. Then, let's say the teams must use another 30 seconds by lap 50. If a team doesn't, it is another penalty on the next pit stop. 

One, you force the teams to use it early. Two, you set the lap requirement early enough the drivers will have to face a penalty. The halfway point is a good limit. Everyone will have to make a stop in the second half of the race. It will be very difficult to circumvent the rule and if a team does, just add the five seconds to the finishing time. 

It forces more action early and it could mix up the strategies. It might force teams off a two-stop strategy and on a three-stop strategy. The penalty isn't too harsh, but it is harsh enough that drivers would just use push to pass to avoid it. I think that would be a good thing. There should be nothing wrong with encouraging aggressive strategies. 

19. And now a Texas doubleheader awaits. What a three-week stretch to open the season.