Sunday, September 4, 2022

First Impressions: Portland 2022

1.  Scott McLaughlin might be the best driver in the world. Consider his Supercars success in Australia, a three-time champion, 56 victories, tied for fifth all-time and a Bathurst 1000 victory. Now add in his sophomore season where he has won three IndyCar races, and McLaughlin will head to Laguna Seca with a chance at the IndyCar championship. 

It was a flawless drive from the New Zealander, leading 104 of 110 laps at Portland. No one came close to him even after traffic bunched the field up and a late restart. This is McLaughlin's fifth consecutive top five finish. Only one other driver has five consecutive top five finishes this season. That would be his teammate and championship leader Will Power. There are a lot of excellent drivers in IndyCar. For McLaughlin to have accomplished this and be in such an exclusive group is stunning. 

Forty-one points separate McLaughlin and Power in the championship. It will require a long chain of event for McLaughlin to win the championship, but I do not think he should look at missed opportunities, such as the Indianapolis 500 and Belle Isle, with any dismay because he lost points. Every driver has a bad day in IndyCar. Some will have two. For a sophomore to be alive for the championship entering the finale, even if it requires a Hail Mary to take it, is a grand achievement. 

McLaughlin moved to America planning to be here for a while. If he is already contesting a championship to the final race in year two, he is on the right path.

2. Team Penske tested at Portland a week ago after a rather disappointing performance last year. I didn't believe one test would put Penske ahead of the field. It did more than that and if it wasn't for Josef Newgarden's six-spot grid penalty, there is a good chance this team would have swept the podium. 

Will Power was second and strengthened his championship lead. Power's championship lead is 20 points over Newgarden and Scott Dixon entering the finale. 

We know Power's championship history, but it has been a long time since he has been in this position. He hasn't led the championship into the finale since his title season in 2014. We know from 2010 through 2012 he led the championship into the final race all three years and left the final races without any silverware. During this race there was a little dread knowing his past. 

The only restart was nervy because Power had Patricio O'Ward behind him and O'Ward had to finish ahead of Power to stay alive. The two made contact into the chicane, but it was side-by-side and not dirty. It was hard racing. Power made it through clamming any concerns. It also helped that Newgarden was losing ground and extended Power's advantage heading to the finale. 

Twenty points is not a significant lead. It is somewhat comforting. There is a margin for error, but Power cannot have his worse day of the season. His worst finish is 19th. He cannot expect to get away with that and win the championship, but he has 11 top five finishes, eight podium results. Third would be enough. But if there is anyone who has had finales from Hell, it is Power and until we see the checkered flag at Laguna Seca, the worst is still out there. 

3. Scott Dixon achieved another memorable run to keep the championship alive. From 16th on the grid to third at the checkered flag. This could have been a day where Dixon was eliminated from the championship, but after each stint he made up spots. On the only restart, Dixon caught out Newgarden and Alexander Rossi as they battled for position, and then he got a position after Patricio O'Ward was called for blocking. That was six points in Dixon's advantage in about two laps. 

Twenty points is nothing for Dixon. He has to have his best day of the season to win the title, but we have been here before, Dixon entering in third and pulling out a race victory to take the title. For most of this season, it didn't feel like a championship run from Dixon, and yet he is here and a seventh title remains a possibility. 

4. Patricio O'Ward had one run at Power and it just didn't work. O'War did block on Dixon entering turn four. O'Ward knew he couldn't lose a spot to Dixon in that case. It was bad enough he couldn't get ahead of Power. 

Unfortunately, this was another year where O'Ward was either stellar or dreadful. There were too many races with mechanical issues and he had a few races where he just wasn't in it. He did win two races, but he needed more to stay alive for the title. Power has eight podium finishes and hasn't finished outside the top twenty. O'Ward had only four podium finishes and has three finishes outside the top twenty. There is the difference race there. 

In IndyCar, three bad races is all it takes to keep a driver out of the championship battle. O'Ward is great. He will put it together one season, next year is highly possible, but he knows where the improvement must come.

5. Graham Rahal looked good today and was making ground on each stint. Rahal went long on the first stint and went forward. He had a good balance on strategy. He didn't go too long that he lost ground. It got Rahal a top five and I think that is all Rahal and his team could ask for in this race. 

This was a great race for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Christian Lundgaard spent much of the race in the top five before stalling on his final pit stop and then blowing the first turn trying to pass Alexander Rossi and hitting one of the sponsor boards in the runoff with it remaining stuck to his front wing, forcing an extra pit stop. 

It has been an encouraging second half of the season for RLLR. It should have had a double top ten finish. Hopefully the team is heading in the right direction for 2023. That appears to be the case.  

6. Colton Herta was sixth. Andretti Autosport was only good today. Nothing flashy. Herta wasn't even the best Andretti driver in the field, but he kept his nose out of harm's way and got sixth. There was a point where Herta lost ground on a pit cycle and it looked like it was going to be another finish outside the top ten, but Herta overcame that and got more than expected. 

This also comes on a day where it sounds like Red Bull may have come to terms with Herta about a possible Formula One role, possibly a race seat at AlphaTauri, pending the FIA granting Herta an exemption for a Super License. We must wait until that hearing happens to know but we have an interesting week ahead of us that will affect both the Formula One and IndyCar paddocks. 

7. Alexander Rossi looked strong in this race, and if Rossi hadn't be run wide trying to pass Newgarden into the chicane on the only restart, he likely would have finished better than seventh and possibly been on the podium. 

Rossi had a run, but the car carried wide, he and Newgarden then were bogged down because of the Power and O'Ward battle and all of a sudden, Rossi had Dixon and Herta pass him. Rossi did eventually get Newgarden but it was for three positions further down the order. 

It wasn't as good as it could have been, but Andretti wasn't really mixing it at the front this weekend. 

8. Josef Newgarden was caught out on the only caution because his team went with the primary tires for the final stint. Once the field was bunched up Newgarden was a sitting duck. 

It backfired, but I don't think it is the worst strategy call in racing history. Newgarden made that stop on lap 79. There had been no cautions up to that point. It isn't always the best strategy to plan for a caution. I actually think that is a dumb strategy because cautions are out of a driver's hands. A driver and team can only plan for what it can control and ending on the primary tire while making a green flag pit stop made sense. Then the caution came out and that decision put Newgarden in a corner. 

Newgarden went from three points behind Power to 20 points back. That is a tough swing, but Newgarden is still in it. He has won five times this season. He isn't looking to luck into a championship. If he has to go out and earn, Newgarden is ready to do that and it is still within Newgarden's control. 

9. Callum Ilott was ninth! Ilott was competitive in this race and looked poised for a top ten run. It worked out that way. Ilott has performed better than his equipment this season, and that isn't a slight on Juncos Hollinger Racing. It is one of the smallest teams in IndyCar and it only returned to the series this time a year ago after a brief stint that never had fantastic results. 

We have seen Ilott regularly in contention to advance from the first round of qualifying this season on road and street courses. That has been harder for some teams than others. Ilott and JHR are ahead of a few established groups in that area. The finishes haven't been as good, but for a rookie new to the series Ilott has shown great signs for the future. He and JHR are in a good position for next year.

10. Felix Rosenqvist rounded out the top ten. Looking at Rosenqvist's results, I don't know if Arrow McLaren SP can move on from the Swede. O'Ward is beating Rosenqvist, but Rosenqvist is providing great support and is on the verge of being in the top ten of the championship. Is dropping Rosenqvist really for the best of the team? 

We know Alexander Rossi is joining this team next year. We know AMSP could have Álex Palou in its lineup next year in a third car. But can AMSP guarantee either of those drivers will do better than what we have seen from Rosenqvist? The incumbent has made it difficult.

11. We will cover Marcus Ericsson and Álex Palou here because they were 11th and 12th. Ericsson remains in the championship fight, but there was a moment it looked like the Indianapolis 500 and made who led the championship for a good portion of spring and summer was going to be eliminated. 

This is what I expected from Ericsson in the final half of the season. He would continue to get good results, but when looking at what Power was doing and the speed of Newgarden, that wasn't going to be enough for Ericsson to take the championship. Ericsson is still alive but we have no reason to believe he will win this championship. He hasn't had a top five finish since Toronto and he has only led 37 laps all season. 

As for Palou, he was mathematically eliminated from the championship. It hasn't been bad year for Palou, but he hasn't won a race and Chip Ganassi Racing is suing him. He and Ericsson swung and missed today. Palou didn't have the car set up to excel and Ericsson went long on the first two stints hoping for... I don't know what. It cost both drivers today.

12. Kyle Kirkwood was 13th and this was the kind of day Kirkwood needed. Right in the middle of the field. No incidents. No mechanical issues. No muffed pit stops. Just 110 solid laps. Good for Kirkwood.

13. David Malukas was ok in 14th. He wasn't really a threat in this one, but he had a few good moves, and Lundgaard's unfortunate collision with the sponsorship board means Malukas is now only five points back in the Rookie of the Year battle, so that is another thing to keep an eye on at Laguna Seca.

14. While two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars spent most of the race in the top ten, Jack Harvey was 15th. He really wasn't mentioned at all in this race. Harvey just needed to be a little better in this race. He didn't needed to run in the top five. He just had to be pushing for tenth or 11th. He was barely pushing for 15th and really got a few breaks to finish that high, including the misfortune of his teammate Lundgaard.

15. Let's run through the rest of the field. Devlin DeFrancesco didn't look great but got his best road/street course finish in 16th. Hélio Castroneves was 17th and that seems like the best he can do on road/street courses. Meyer Shank Racing is making a mistake bringing Castroneves back for a full season next year. Takuma Sato was nowhere and finished 18th. 

16. Scott McLaughlin is proving the sophomore slump is not the rule. Romain Grosjean is proving sophomore slumps do happen. Grosjean went off course on the opening lap and then cut the first chicane, didn't properly go through the runoff and he earned himself a penalty. This has been a disappointing season for Grosjean, no way around it. 

17. Rinus VeeKay lost a top ten result when he was penalized for avoidable contact when VeeKay bumped Jimmie Johnson into the wall on the straightaway before entering turn one. 

It didn't look good, but I thought a penalty was harsh. Johnson was a lap down. He was running close to two seconds slower than the top ten runners. That doesn't mean Johnson can be run over, but Johnson is regularly in the way. At times, it feels like Ganassi uses Johnson to the team's advantage when Johnson can hold up another driver to allow a Ganassi driver close in. Even when that isn't the case, Johnson doesn't have the best back-marker etiquette. 

Again, that doesn't mean it is fair game for others to take out Johnson. VeeKay didn't make the greatest move in the world. Did it deserve a penalty? I would have been fine if VeeKay didn't get anything for that. Accident do happen. 

18. We went over Lundgaard in 21st. At worst, he should have been seventh or eighth. He really should have been in the top five. Speaking of poor back-marker etiquette, Dalton Kellett was 22nd. I am not sure what happened to Simon Pagenaud, but this was another race where Pagenaud had something go wrong and he ended up finishing outside the top twenty. Johnson was 24th and Conor Daly had a pit fire that burned out the clutch.

Between Meyer Shank Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing, it feels like every week each of these teams have a mechanical issue that ruins the race for one of its drivers. 

19. IndyCar deserves credit because it figured out how to have a clean start at Portland. The drivers accelerated earlier on the straightaway and we didn't have 25 cars jumbled up entering the corner. 

I will say, Will Power never got to the outside of McLaughlin at the start and form an actual front row. At some point, IndyCar just has to penalize these guys. Power was never in the correct position at the start. NASCAR does an entire pace lap side-by-side coming to the green flag. I know the courses are tight, but IndyCar has to do the same. About 75% of the starts look like crap in IndyCar. This would be one way to provide some fairness to the start and actually have a start look formal and not a free-for-all where the drivers can do whatever they want without any repercussions. 

Start aside, Portland put on a good race. Yes, McLaughlin put a spanking on the field, but there were drivers moving forward and plenty of overtaking. Turn seven is a passing zone. If there was only a way the turn ten area could be adjusted to make it friendlier to passing attempts, Portland could have three good areas for passes. 

Portland is still a basic facility that the city owns. It isn't going to get a massive facelift and become some spectacular place to see a race with a fancy garage area and other amenities, but it is a fun course. 

20. This is it. Seven days until the season is over. Five drivers alive for the championship. This has been a great season. We do not know how it will end. It could be uneventful. It could be chaotic to the checkered flag. All we can do is wait.