When we last checked, the playoffs were set, a few notable faces were in danger of being relegated and League Two was entering its final weeks as the promotion spots were still up for grabs.
How did it turn out?
Playoffs
Quarterfinals (Gateway):
#12 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#8 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
#3 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#2 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
#12 Penske def. #28 Andretti (6th to 13)
Will Power was one of the best drivers all race at Gateway, and Romain Grosjean was on an alternate strategy hoping to pull out a positive result. When the rains came and brought out a late caution, it trapped Grosjean a lap down and ensured Power a spot in the semifinals if he kept it out of the barrier. Power did. Power advanced.
#8 CGR def. #27 Andretti (7th to 25th)
Marcus Ericsson was running much of this race in the top ten, but Alexander Rossi was not far off and one slip from Ericsson could have seen Rossi move ahead of the Swede. However, once Rossi stalled on a pit stop, it meant all Ericsson had to do was avoid any trouble of his own. Ericsson did. Ericsson advanced to take on Power in the semifinals.
#3 Penske def. #15 RLLR (3rd to 10th)
These were two entries in two different zip codes the entire race. Scott McLaughlin was always at the front contesting for the lead and Graham Rahal was always playing just to break the top ten. McLaughlin ended up third, Rahal tenth, McLaughlin moves on.
#2 Penske def. #9 Ganassi (1st to 8th)
In a stellar quarterfinal matchup, Josef Newgarden took a good car and became great at Gateway while Scott Dixon could not match that pace. Newgarden pulled out a victory. Dixon was in the middle of the top ten the entire race and wound up eighth. Newgarden advanced.
Semifinals (Portland):
#12 Penske vs. #8 CGR
#2 Penske vs. #3 Penske
#12 Penske def. #8 CGR (2nd to 11th)
Power spent the entire Portland race at the front while Ericsson was rolling the dice on an alternate strategy that never appeared was going to work. Power kept it clean and finished second. Ericsson managed to finish 11th but was not going to finish much better than that. Power takes a spot in the final.
#3 Penske def. #2 Penske (1st to 8th)
For the first time, Josef Newgarden will not be league champion. Newgarden crossed his teammate McLaughlin at the wrong race weekend. McLaughlin took pole position. Newgarden qualified second but had to take a six-spot grid penalty and start eighth. McLaughlin was untouched. Newgarden was on the primary tire compound to finish the race and didn't have the same pace as the drivers around. Newgarden lost spots, but it didn't matter. McLaughlin ran away and into the final.
Final (Laguna Seca):
#12 Penske vs. #3 Penske
#12 Penske def. #3 Penske (3rd to 6th)
The champion is the champion. Champion on points, champion head-to-head, Will Power's consistent results would have him take this title as well, and this was more in his control than the actual championship. In the Laguna Seca finale, Power likely was only behind McLaughlin during the pit cycles and that couldn't have been more than four or five combined laps over the 95 laps run.
Power kept it on the road and McLaughlin's four-stop strategy was worth the effort, but Power still took the championship with relative comfort.
With the championship taken care of, what about the relegation playoff? The sixth-place teams and seventh-place teams from each conference paired off with the loser of two rounds ending up relegated. Who stayed up and who ended up being the third team going down?
Relegation Playoff:
Semifinals (Gateway):
#26 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#18 DCR vs. #45 RLLR
#5 AMSP def. #26 Andretti (4th to 11th)
In what was an unthinkable matchup at the start of the season for relegation, Patricio O'Ward took on Colton Herta with the loser facing the brink of being dropped to League Two. Herta had nothing for O'Ward. The Mexican driver comfortably ensured safety in League One for 2023.
#18 DCR vs. #45 RLLR (2nd to 24th)
When David Malukas needed his best race of the season, he got it. It also helped that Jack Harvey, in what started as his best run of the season, went high and brushed the wall exiting turn four. As long as Malukas didn't get into an accident or breakdown, he would be safe. Malukas did more than just maintain a safe position. He went for the race victory, and came close to achieving.
Final (Portland):
#26 Andretti vs. #45 RLLR
#26 Andretti def. #45 RLLR (6th def. 15th)
The 2022 season was hellish for Herta, but it couldn't have been bad enough to warrant relegation. However, it couldn't be ruled out. But in Portland, Herta had an average race while Harvey languished for another event. Herta was unchallenged and maintained a spot in the top league. The third RLLR entry, however, will go down to League Two for the 2023 season.
Speaking of League Two, the final three races would determine the three promoted teams for the 2023 League One season. Entering Gateway, five teams were competing for the three spots. How did it turn out?
League Two (Through 15 weeks):
1. #7 Arrow McLaren SP 12-3
2. #21 ECR 11-4
3. #06 Meyer Shank 11-4
4. #20 ECR 10-5
5. #48 Ganassi 10-5
6. #29 Andretti 7-8
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 6-9
8. #14 Foyt 4-11
9. #4 Foyt 3-12
10. #11 Foyt 1-14
What happened over the final three weeks?
1. #7 Arrow McLaren SP 15-3
Gateway: WIN (16th to #20's 26th)
Portland: WIN (10th to #06's 17th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (4th to #4's 25th)
2. #48 Ganassi 13-5
Gateway: WIN (14th to #14's 17th)
Portland: WIN (24th to #20's 25th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (16th to #06's 19th)
3. #21 ECR 12-6
Gateway: LOSS (23rd to #29's 12th)
Portland: LOSS (20th to #14's 13th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (15th to #20's 24th)
4. #06 Meyer Shank 12-6
Gateway: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Portland: LOSS (17th to #7's 10th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (19th to #48's 16th)
5. #20 ECR 10-8
Gateway: LOSS (26th to #7's 16th)
Portland: LOSS (25th to #48's 24th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (24th to #21's 14th)
6. #29 Andretti 9-9
Gateway: WIN (12th to #21's 23rd)
Portland: LOSS (16th to #77's 9th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (15th to #14's 21st)
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 8-10
Gateway: LOSS (21st to #4's 18th)
Portland: WIN (9th to #29's 16th)
Laguna Seca: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
8. #14 Foyt 5-13
Gateway: LOSS (17th to #48's 14th)
Portland: WIN (13th to #21's 20th)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (21st to #29's 15th)
9. #4 Foyt 5-13
Gateway: WIN (18th to #77's 21st)
Portland: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (25th to #7's 4th)
10. #11 Foyt 1-16
Gateway: LOSS (Did not appear)
Portland: LOSS (Did not appear)
Laguna Seca: LOSS (Did not appear)
The #7 AMSP entry clinched promotion at Portland but entering the final weekend it was three teams competing for two spots, and two went head-to-head in the final weekend. The #48 Ganassi entry of Jimmie Johnson versus the #06 Meyer Shank Racing entry of Hélio Castroneves. The winner was guaranteed promotion. Castroneves qualified 12th, his second best starting position of the season. Johnson qualified 23rd. And Johnson won it!
Castroneves had nothing serious go wrong, and Johnson didn't do anything spectacular, but Johnson made five pit stops and overcame a penalty for spinning Dalton Kellett. It wasn't really that weekend though but every weekend that earned Johnson and the #48 CGR entry promotion.
Johnson made most of the situation. He went 5-1 in oval scenarios, 4-1 in races and then he won his Indianapolis 500 qualifying head-to-head matchup. He also caught some breaks. A 20th at Long Beach got him a win, same with a 24th at Barber when Callum Ilott had a spin and finished 25th. Johnson was 22nd at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and beat Rinus VeeKay in 23rd. His 21st at Toronto defeated Dalton Kellett's 24th and then his 24th at Portland defeated Conor Daly's 25th at Portland when Daly retired.
Five of Johnson's victories came when he finished 20th or worse. Three of those were where he beat his opponent by finishing directly ahead of them. Drivers finishing 20th or worse went a combined 16-94 this season. Johnson is responsible for nearly a third of them. Dalton Kellett won three times when finishing 20th or worse. Castroneves and Devlin DeFrancesco each won twice. Felix Rosenqvist, David Malukas, Scott McLaughlin and Jack Harvey were responsible for the other four.
The breaks fell for Johnson and he caught drivers on their worst days at the most opportune time for Johnson. League One, here he comes.
Castroneves lost, but he still had a shot at promotion. He just needed Daly in the #20 ECR entry to defeat VeeKay in the #21 ECR entry. Daly had a bad race. VeeKay was 14th. Daly was 24th. VeeKay won. The #06 MSR and the #21 ECR entries were tied at 12-6, but the #21 ECR entry gets promotion because VeeKay was 2-0 head-to-head against Castroneves.
VeeKay was third at Barber while Castroneves was 21st, and VeeKay was 19th in the second Iowa race while Castroneves was 21st. The #21 ECR entry goes up. The #06 MSR entry stays up. And we are set.
What does the 2023 league structure tentatively look like?
2023 League One - Conference One
#12 Penske
#3 Penske
#10 Ganassi
#7 AMSP
#27 Andretti
#21 ECR
#28 Andretti
#48 Ganassi
2023 League One - Conference Two
#2 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#8 Ganassi
#5 AMSP
#26 Andretti
#15 RLLR
#60 MSR
#18 DCR
2023 League Two
#30 RLLR
#20 ECR
#06 MSR
#51 DCR
#45 RLLR
#77 JHR
#29 Andretti
#14 Foyt
#4 Foyt
As of now, we only have nine League Two entries, but it is guaranteed Arrow McLaren SP will have a third car. At least one great driver will be in League Two. Juncos Hollinger Racing has announced a second car. It looks unlikely A.J. Foyt Racing will return to three cars, but that is another possibility. Dale Coyne Racing has flirted with expanding to three cars.
It should also be noted a League Two team or one of the relegated League One teams could catch a break be in League One if teams change and one team closes down. There will be some adjustments when the grid fills out and March nears. Currently, this is the base for 2023 and we will make necessary tweaks before finalizing this structure next February. Either way, we are looking at possibly having the most teams in the head-to-head league structure since this hypothetical started ahead of the 2019 season.
