Sunday, April 30, 2023

First Impressions: Barber 2023

1. Scott McLaughlin vs. Romain Grosjean, Part II, lived up to their first meeting in the "St. Petersburg Slugfest." Neither driver came out the winner in that one. This time in the "Birmingham Brawl," Grosjean showed the upper-hand for most of the 90-lap fight. However, McLaughlin's pace proved too much and the one moment Grosjean left the door open, McLaughlin striked, and it was game over. 

McLaughlin caught a break with a caution as he was on pit lane for his second pit stop in a three-stop strategy. The caution allowed McLaughlin to catch a gap and avoid running an out lap, putting him in second position while fellow three-stoppers Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi were trapped outside the top five despite being in the same zip code with McLaughlin prior to the caution. 

The break aside, McLaughlin put up a stellar drive, and it very well could have been lost after Grosjean made the clubhouse leader for pass of the year on McLaughlin's out lap. Grosjean carried more speed on the outside of the penultimate corner to give himself the inside on McLaughlin into the final corner and down the main straightaway. It put Grosjean back in the lead and it looked like that would be enough for Grosjean to get his first career victory, but Grosjean's two stop strategy meant he had to save fuel and he was also watching the tires. 

Grosjean had run wide multiple times in turn five in this race. In the final stint, he went a smidge wider than usual and McLaughlin was close enough to pounce, taking the lead before getting into turn seven. 

Both these drivers could have had a victory already. Either one deserved to win St. Petersburg. Today, they both deserved to win again. McLaughlin caught the breaks today. That caution coming a lap later or a lap earlier and McLaughlin likely isn't even on the podium let alone the top step. With the circumstances aligning, McLaughlin took advantage and came out on top after a phenomenal battle.

2. This felt like it was Grosjean's day. The two-stop strategy looked questionable at the end of the first stint considering the pace of McLaughlin, Newgarden and Rossi. If Sting Ray Robb doesn't stop on course, it is likely one of those three win this race and Grosjean might not finish in the top five. It may have never meant to be, but the caution was in Grosjean's favor. The breathtaking pass on McLaughlin to get ahead after the final pit stops is something of legend. It was genius driving, looking a corner ahead and at the time it felt like the definitive move to pull out a first career victory. Instead, it is a consolation prize for another brilliant drive that fell short. 

The optimist will look at this race and see that it was the fourth time in four races Grosjean was in the top five in the closing stages. He is there. The day is coming. 

3. The early portion of this race didn't appear to be turning out favorably for Will Power. Power's two teammates, also on the three-stop strategy, looked to be in control. Power was looking at maybe cracking the top five. The lone caution bunched up the field and Power was able to pick off some two-stop drivers, vaulting into a podium position. Like McLaughlin, Power made the most of the circumstances. Podium finishes are a good thing. We saw them be the backbone of Power's championship run last year. 

4. The unheralded battle of this race was for fourth. Patricio O'Ward and Álex Palou, the two most recent Barber winners, were nose-to-tail for what felt like 90 laps. It wasn't quite that long. Both stretched the two-stop strategy, but neither were going to keep up with the three-stoppers and Grosjean. If the Robb caution never happens, neither of these drivers would have been in the top five. Instead, they went at it for fourth. O'Ward held on, but Palou never relented.

5. Considering how O'Ward and Palou have done in the championship the last two years, if this is a bad day for these two drivers, they will both be going to Laguna Seca with a sniff at the Astor Cup. They went at it in 2021 for the title. Palou came out on top. A second championship fight for these two would surprise no one and it could be the second of many.

6. Many stories are missed in a race like this, including Christian Lundgaard finishing sixth it what was Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's first good weekend of the season. Lundgaard was around the top five all race. He didn't blink while battling Scott Dixon. Lundgaard may have finished where he started, but considering no RLLR car had started in the top ten prior to this weekend, this is a victory for this group, but the team still has a long way to go. More on that shortly.

7. On the two-stop strategy, Scott Dixon wasn't going to do much better than seventh in this one. Dixon extends his perfect record of top ten finishes at Barber, but he wasn't quite in the mix. Palou was the best Ganassi driver this weekend. Dixon is still there. He will be fine. It just wasn't his weekend. 

8. Alexander Rossi was coming on strong at the end of his second stint. He closed in notably on McLaughlin and Newgarden. If this race had played out without the Robb caution, it likely would have been McLaughlin versus Rossi. Rossi had a rocket ship, but the timing of the caution in conjunction with Rossi's pit stop meant he emerged from the pit lane in eighth position, six spots behind McLaughlin despite stopping on the same lap. Sometimes that fraction of a second is a seven-postion difference. 

9. Comeback of the day must go to Felix Rosenqvist. Slight contact with Newgarden sent Rosenqvist spinning on the opening lap. The Swede went from eighth on the grid to 25th at the end of lap one. Somehow, no one hit Rosenqvist despite that spin happening in turn two. Even more impressive is Rosenqvist finished ninth on the two-stop strategy. He didn't call an audible and make an early stop to adopt a three-stop strategy. Ninth isn't what this team would have been hoping for at the start of this day, but at the end of lap one, Rosenqvist is likely pleased with this result.

10. Not a good day, but not a bad day for Marcus Ericsson to finish tenth. Ericsson wasn't quite in the picture this weekend. The pace wasn't there is qualifying. He didn't make a leap in the race. Tenth is better than most other results, but when you want to win a championship, today feels like points lost more than points gained.

11. If it wasn't for Rosenqvist's quest to ninth, Marcus Armstrong's drive from 26th to 11th on a two-stop strategy would be the talk of the day. It is still terrific. Chip Ganassi isn't going to listen to any of us, but Armstrong should be in this car for the Indianapolis 500 and the rest of the ovals. None of the other rookies were close in this race. Armstrong was already the top rookie in the championship entering Barber. He only extended his advantage today. Regardless of what Takuma Sato does at Indianapolis, Armstrong should get the final three oval races. If the money can be found in the next two weeks, Honda should rush an 18th engine, prepare a car and have Armstrong entered for the "500." He is ready.

12. Kyle Kirkwood was a two-stopper and lost out, dropping to 12th. This isn't on Kirkwood. The team picked its strategy and this was the race that evolved to favor the three-stoppers. Should Kirkwood, from 12th starting position, have gone to a three-stop strategy? Probably. All four Andretti cars were on the two-stop strategy. Three of those cars started 12th or worse. That seems like a bad decision for the team. At least one car, more specifically, one of Kirkwood or Colton Herta, who started 14th and was the third best Andretti car all race, should have been on a three-stopper and split the deck for the Andretti team. The team has been quick, but strategy choices remain befuddling.

13. For the first half of this race, maybe even the first two-thirds, Callum Ilott was nowhere. Somehow, Ilott finished 13th, only a two position gain from where he started, but Ilott was out of the top twenty at one point. It looked like a bad day for Juncos Hollinger Racing. Agustín Canapino didn't quite have it today. Ilott looked off, but Ilott found the speed in the later stages and rallied to finish 13th. 

14. The contact with Rosenqvist on the opening lap of the race damaged something on Josef Newgarden's car, and it became more difficult to drive as the race wore on. In the first-third of the race, it looked like Newgarden was a contender for victory, but he faded. If it had remained green without the Robb finish, Newgarden probably doesn't win. He likely holds on for the top ten, but the car was wounded, and his free fall to 15th tells the story. With McLaughlin winning, this should feel like one that got away from Newgarden.

15. Let's round out the field. Rinus VeeKay went backward and finished 16th. Graham Rahal was bouncing off others at the back of the field and 17th was the best he was ever going to hope for in this one. Lundgaard had it figured out this weekend, but Rahal was 17th and that result was generous, and Jack Harvey was 24th and if you didn't know Harvey was out there you weren't alone. It is a step forward for RLLR, but the team has many more to make. 

Simon Pagenaud was 18th. Whoopie! Meyer Shank Racing has more work to do than RLLR, and that is saying something. David Malukas looked good on the three-stop strategy, but he was the biggest loser of the Robb caution. It took Malukas out of the fight for a top ten. Santino Ferrucci rounded out the top twenty. That is the best A.J. Foyt Racing can hope for at the moment.

Hélio Castroneves is padding the record book in the starts department. Finishing 21st still counts as a start. Benjamin Pedersen made some mistakes, but still finished 22nd, ahead of four other cars on speed. Andretti Autosport couldn't at least had Devlin DeFrancesco try the three-stop strategy? DeFrancesco was 23rd. A three-stop strategy would at least have put him ahead of Pedersen. 

RLLR isn't great in general, but if Jack Harvey is going to keep finishing outside the top twenty, the team will switch the driver as well. All options are on the table. Conor Daly must be making plans to leave Ed Carpenter Racing, and Ed Carpenter Racing must be making plans to replace Daly. This combination isn't working. Like RLLR, ECR isn't great in general, but finishing 25th and never stiffing the top fifteen cannot be acceptable for driver and team. 

Agustín Canapino had a rookie day. He didn't cause an accident. He wasn't a hazard, but Canapino had an eye-opener. It was a new track, and it is tough on tires. He still finished on the lead lap, albeit over a minute and six seconds off McLaughlin. 

Sting Ray Robb broke down in a race that otherwise would be unmemorable for him. At least Robb got some air time.

16. Brilliant race and it is wonderful news that Barber Motorsports Park has an extension through the 2027 season. Barber is under-appreciated. It gets lost between the glamour of Long Beach the prestige of the month of May, but this is a phenomenal event. The races always impresses us. This one was one of the best we have seen at Barber and the track has had some doozies. I cannot wait until next year. 

17. May begins tomorrow. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis is 13 days away.