Thursday, April 13, 2023

Track Walk: Long Beach 2023

The third race of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the 48th Grand Prix of Long Beach. Coming off a race that saw over 1,000 passes at Texas Motor Speedway, Long Beach has averaged 162.75 passes since 2018. Last year's race had 152 total passes. When it comes to passes for position, the last four Long Beach races have averaged 103.25, but last year's race had only 88. Each of the first two races in 2023 have seen an increase in both total number of passes and passes for position compared to those races in 2022. With 27 cars entered for this year's Long Beach, it is the third consecutive year the race has drawn more than two-dozen entries, the longest streak since 2010-2013 when four consecutive Long Beach races had more than 24 cars.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday April 16 with green flag scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kevin Lee and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 6:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 11:45 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 3:05 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 12:00 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:45 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

American Dominance
American drivers have won the last four Long Beach races. Prior to this stretch, only one American driver had won in the first ten Long Beach races held since reunification, and American drivers had only won twice in 21 Long Beach races. 

Entering 2023, the United States is on its longest Long Beach winning streak since Americans won the first nine Long Beach races under CART sanctioning from 1984 to 1992. 

Alexander Rossi was responsible for the first two victories in this four-race run. Rossi won in 2018 and 2019 driving for Andretti Autosport. It was the seventh time a driver had won successive years on the famed streets. In those two races, Rossi led 151 of a combined 170 laps, and he is one of ten drivers with at least 150 laps led at Long Beach. Both victories came from pole position.

After a year without Long Beach due to the pandemic, Colton Herta picked up his first career Long Beach victory, winning from 14th starting position in what was the 2021 season finale. It was the sixth time a Long Beach winner started outside the top ten. Last year saw Álex Palou leap to the lead under the first pit cycle, displacing Herta, but on the final set of pit stops, Josef Newgarden emerged ahead of the Spaniard, scoring Team Penske its first Long Beach victory since 2016.

Along with those three, six other American drivers will be competing in the Grand Prix of Long Beach. 

Of those six drivers, the only other one to make it to the podium at Long Beach is Graham Rahal. Rahal was second in the 2013 Long Beach race. He has four top ten finishes in the last five Long Beach events, including a pair of top five results. However, Rahal has only led four laps out of 1,155 completed in 15 starts. All four laps led came in the 2021 race.

Conor Daly has made five Long Beach starts, and his best Long Beach finish came last year, but it was only a 12th place result. Santino Ferrucci, Kyle Kirkwood and David Malukas have all only made one Long Beach start. This will be Ferrucci's first Long Beach appearance since 2019, where he finished two laps down in 21st. Kirkwood's only top ten finish in IndyCar came at Long Beach last year when he was tenth. Malukas was 21st after an accident with ten laps to go. 

Sting Ray Robb will be making his Long Beach debut. Robb never competed at Long Beach in Road to Indy competition. No Road to Indy series has run at Long Beach since 2015.

American drivers have won 19 of 47 Long Beach races. Al Unser, Jr. leads all drivers with six Long Beach victories. Mario Andretti won four times at Long Beach, once in Formula One and three times IndyCar competition. Andretti was the first repeat Long Beach winner. Michael Andretti and Rossi each won twice at Long Beach. Danny Sullivan, Jimmy Vasser, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Herta and Newgarden account for the remaining American victories. 

The Big Two
While Americans have been running the show on East Shoreline Drive, Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have been manhandling the field in IndyCar over the last few races. 

The two teams have split the opening races of the 2023 season. Ganassi's Marcus Ericsson won at St. Petersburg with Penske's Josef Newgarden following with victory at Texas. Going back to last season, these two teams have combined to win six consecutive races, three apiece. Scott Dixon and Álex Palou won last year at Nashville and Laguna Seca respectively while Newgarden won at Gateway and Scott McLaughlin won at Portland. The teams combined to win 13 of 17 races in 2022.

In the championship, these two teams swept the top six positions in 2022. Through two races in 2023, the teams have four of the top five and six of the top ten. 

In the last six races, Penske and Ganassi have claimed 15 of 18 podium positions. The three exceptions are David Malukas' runner-up run at Gateway last year, and Patricio O'Ward has opened the 2023 season with a pair of second place finishes. Team Penske has had a podium finisher in nine consecutive races. The last IndyCar race not to feature a car from either Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing on the podium was the second race of the 2020 Mid-Ohio doubleheader when Andretti Autosport went 1-2-3 with Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay, 38 races ago. 

If there is one driver ready to break the Penske/Ganassi winning streak it is O'Ward. He leads the championship after opening the season with a pair of runner-up finishes. It is the first time a driver has opened the season with consecutive second-place finishes since Simon Pagenaud in 2016. Pagenaud won the third race that season at Long Beach. O'Ward picked up his first top five result at Long Beach last year when he finished fifth, but he had finished 12th and 27th in his first two Long Beach appearances. 

Andretti Autosport has been knocking on the door of victory in the last two races, and Romain Grosjean has been pounding the hardest only for a pair of accidents to take him out of top five positions in the first two races of the season. Grosjean was runner-up to Newgarden last season at Long Beach, Grosjean's most recent podium finish. Andretti Autosport has won five of the last 14 Long Beach races, two more than any other team during that timespan.  

Andretti Autosport, Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have each had one representative on the podium in the last four Long Beach races. The last time a team other than these three was on the podium was in 2017 when James Hinchcliffe won for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports and Sébastien Bourdais was second for Dale Coyne Racing. Newgarden was third in his second Penske start. Hinchcliffe took the lead through a pit cycle after Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay both broke down in Andretti entries.
 
While Team Penske is the defending race winning team at Long Beach, Chip Ganassi Racing has not won at Long Beach since 2015. That was Scott Dixon's first, and so far only, Long Beach victory. Since 2009, Chip Ganassi Racing has only won this race twice. 

Top Ten Streaks
Two races into the season, one on a street course and one on an oval, and six drivers have finished in the top ten of both events. All six of those drivers rank in the top seven of the championship. Who will be the last one to keep his top ten streak alive?

While Patricio O'Ward was runner-up in the first two races of 2023, O'Ward has a five-race top ten streak dating back to last season. He had a pair of fourth-place finishes at Gateway and Portland and an eighth at Laguna Seca. While O'Ward has become known for being a front-runner, this five-race streak matches the longest top ten finish run of his career. He was in the top ten for five races from the Indianapolis 500 through Mid-Ohio in 2021. 

Marcus Ericsson has a three-race top ten streak dating back to last season. The St. Petersburg winner, this is the third consecutive season Ericsson has started with successive top ten results, but he has never had a three-race top ten streak to open a season, and Long Beach is not the place he was hoping to see on the schedule. His results in three Long Beach races are 20th, 28th and 22nd. 

Ericsson's Ganassi teammate Scott Dixon opened 2023 with a pair of top five results and now sits alone as the all-time leader in top five finishes in IndyCar history. Dixon's fifth-place result at Texas was the 194th top five finish of Dixon's career, breaking a tie with Mario Andretti. Dixon has opened the season with three consecutive top ten finishes in the last three seasons. In the past two seasons, Dixon has opened with five top ten finishes on the spin, only for the streak to be snapped in the Indianapolis 500.
 
Like Ericsson, Álex Palou has three consecutive top ten finishes dating back to last season. The Spaniard has 27 top ten finishes in 35 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing. In two Long Beach appearances, Palou has finished fourth and third. Last season, he began with four consecutive top ten results, three of which were podium finishes. He has finished in the top five in the third race of the season in all three of his IndyCar seasons. 

David Malukas quietly has himself up to sixth in the championship through two races after a tenth place result at St. Petersburg and a fourth at Texas. Malukas became the first Dale Coyne Racing driver to open a season with consecutive top ten finishes since Sébastien Bourdais in 2017. The only other Coyne driver with successive top ten results to open a season since reunification was Justin Wilson in 2013 when Wilson had a streak of three races. This is the first time Malukas has had consecutive top ten finishes in his IndyCar career. 

Another driver with consecutive top ten finishes for the first time in his IndyCar career is Callum Illot. The Juncos Hollinger Racing driver was fifth at St. Petersburg and ninth at Texas, his first top five finish and his first oval top ten finish respectively in his IndyCar career. Long Beach hasn't been kind to Ilott in his first two visits. He was 26th in 2021 and 24th last year. Ilott has yet to have a top ten finish on a street course in his IndyCar career. His average finish in five street course starts is 19.6.

Top Ten Droughts
While six drivers have finished in the top ten of both races this season, a dozen drivers have yet to pick up a top ten result. However, for the driver leading this bunch, he couldn't be happier with his performances.

The top driver in the championship without a top ten finish is Agustín Canapino. Canapino has finished 12th in each of the first two races this season, placing the Argentine fittingly 12th in the championship on 36 points. He is ahead in the championship of all of the drivers from Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Ed Carpenter Racing, Meyer Shank Racing and A.J. Foyt Racing. 

Romain Grosjean likely should have had a pair of top five finishes to open this season, but accidents in each race has him 15th in the championship on 31 points. Grosjean has only one top ten finish in the last seven races dating back to last season. He has not had a top five result since Road America last June, 11 races ago. 

Rinus VeeKay was on the doorstep of his first top ten finish of the season at Texas but finished 11th. The Dutchman has not had a top ten finish in his last six races. That drought is half as bad as VeeKay's teammate Conor Daly. Daly has gone 13 races without a top ten finish and he has finished outside the top fifteen in nine of his last ten starts. 

Kyle Kirkwood has gone a full season without a top ten result. Sixteen races have come and past since Kirkwood was tenth at Long Beach last April. He has finished outside the top ten in all of them and outside the top fifteen in 13 of them. 

Benjamin Pedersen and Sting Ray Robb have both started their IndyCar careers with two finishes outside the top ten. A grand total of 110 drivers have had their first career top ten finish come in their third career start, including the likes of Johnny Rutherford, Michael Andretti, Paul Tracy, Jimmy Vasser, Hélio Castroneves and Scott Dixon.

Jack Harvey has gone fifth races without a top ten finish, but he has only one in his last 18 starts. 

Simon Pagenaud has not finished in the top fifteen in his last five starts, and he has finished outside the top fifteen in eight of the last nine IndyCar races. 

After ending 2022 with a pair of top ten finishes and five top ten results in the final six races, Felix Rosenqvist has opened 2023 with a pair of accidents in the first two races. 

Santino Ferrucci has yet to crack the top twenty in 2023 and he has not finished in the top twenty in his last three starts going back to last season.

If it wasn't for Takuma Sato, Devlin DeFrancesco would be sitting plum last in the championship. The third Andretti Autosport drover without a top ten finish through two races, DeFrancesco was 25th and 23rd in the first two events, leaving him with 12 points and 28th in the championship. DeFrancesco is still looking for his first top ten finish in IndyCar. Long Beach will mark his 20th career start.

IMSA
The only time IndyCar and the IMSA SportsCar Championship will share the same race weekend in 2023 is Long Beach. The sports car series is also running its third round of the year, but this will be the shortest race of the season after IMSA opened with the longest two events of the season. 

The 100-minute race will see 28 cars participate across the GTP, GTD Pro and GTD classes. 

Fresh off victory in the 12 Hours of Sebring, the #31 Whelen Engineering Racing Cadillac of Pipo Derani and Alexander Sims lead the GTP championship with 670 points, ten points ahead of the #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Ricky Taylor and Filipe Albuquerque. Chip Ganassi Racing is third in the championship, 70 points back with the #01 Cadillac of Sébastien Bourdais and Renger van der Zande. 

After a surprise, and rather fortunate, runner-up finish at Sebring, the #25 BMW Team RLL entry of Connor De Phillippi and Nick Yelloy is fourth on 586 points, six ahead of the #6 Porsche of Nick Tandy and Mathieu Jaminet and 30 points ahead of the #7 Porsche of Felipe Nasr and Matt Campbell. The #24 BMW of Philipp Eng and Augusto Farfus has 529 points. 

After its 200-point penalty for manipulating the tire pressure data at Daytona, Meyer Shank Racing is on 461 points with Colin Braun and Tom Blomqvist in the #60 Acura. 

Five cars are entered in GTD Pro. The #79 WeatherTech Racing Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon and Daniel Juncadella lead the championship after finishes of first and third at Daytona and Sebring respectively. The Andorran-Spanish partnership has 708 points, 26 points clear of the all-British duo of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth in the #14 VasserSullivan Lexus, which has been third and second in the first two races.

Sebring winners, the #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche of Klaus Bachler and Patrick Pilet sit on 659 points while Antonio García and Jordan Taylor have 643 points in the #3 Corvette. Ross Gunn and Alex Riberas have scored 532 points in the #23 Heart of Racing Aston Martin. 

GTD will have 15 cars competing at Long Beach. Brendan Iribe and Frederuk Schandorff lead the championship with 629 points in the #70 Inception Racing McLaren, one point ahead of the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Bryan Sellers and  Madison Snow. VasserSullivan has 576 points for Aaron Telitz and Frankie Montecalvo in the #12 Lexus, 22 points ahead of the #27 Heart of Racing Aston Martin of Roman De Angelis and Ian James.

Notable GTD Pro and GTD entries not competing at Long Beach include the #63 Iron Lynx Lamborghini, the #62 Risi Competizione Ferrari, the #44 Magnus Racing Aston Martin and the #16 Wright Motorsports Porsche.

General Motors has won seven consecutive Long Beach races. Bourdais and van der Zande won last year in the Ganassi Cadillac. Last year, Heart of Racing won in GTD Pro, Aston Martin's first Long Beach victory. Paul Miller Racing won in GTD for the second consecutive year, but it was two victories with two different manufacturers. After winning with Lamborghini in 2021, Paul Miller Racing won with BMW in 2022, the first victory for the new BMW M4 GT3. 

The IMSA race will be at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday April 15. 

Fast Facts
This will be the fourth IndyCar race to take place on April 16, and the first since Paul Tracy won at Long Beach in 2000.

The only other races to take place on April 16 were in 1922, when Harry Hartz won on the 1.25-mile San Francisco Speedway board oval, and in 1989, when Al Unser, Jr. won at Long Beach. It was Unser, Jr.'s second Long Beach victory in a four-year winning streak in the famed race.

Only twice in the 14 Long Beach races since reunification has the Long Beach winner gone on to win the championship: Dario Franchitti 2009 and Scott Dixon 2015.

The Long Beach winner won the championship in eight of the 12 seasons preceding reunification. 

The Long Beach winner has won the championship in 13 of its 38 seasons on the IndyCar schedule.

Four drivers have had their first career IndyCar victory come at Long Beach: Paul Tracy 1993, Juan Pablo Montoya 1999, Mike Conway 2011 and Takuma Sato 2013.

Six of the last seven Long Beach races have had an average speed faster than 90 mph. Only two of the previous seven Long Beach races had an average speed faster than 90 mph. 

Canada has won the second most Long Beach races with six (Gilles Villeneuve, Paul Tracy (four times), James Hinchcliffe). The United Kingdom has five Long Beach victories (Brian Redman, John Watson, Dario Franchitti and Mike Conway twice). France has four Long Beach victories (three for Sébastien Bourdais and one for Simon Pagenaud).

The average starting position for a Long Beach winner is 4.342 with a median of 2.5. 

Three of the last four Long Beach races have been won from the front row. Fifteen of the last 18 Long Beach races have been won from one of the first two rows. Sixteen of the last 21 Long Beach races have been won from one of the first two rows.

The average number of lead changes in a Long Beach race is 5.052 with a median of 5.5. 

The last eight Long Beach races have had five lead changes or more. 

The most recent Long Beach race with fewer than four lead changes was 2008, which only had three lead changes. 

The most recent Long Beach race with zero changes was 2001. In the IndyCar-era, only two other races have had zero lead changes (1984 and 1987).

The average number of cautions in a Long Beach race is 2.868 with a median of three. The average number of caution laps is 11.5 with a median of 12. 

Eight of the last 11 Long Beach races have had three cautions or more. Twenty-two of the last 27 Long Beach races have had three cautions or more.

There has never been rain on race day for the Grand Prix of Long Beach.

Predictions
Andretti Autosport's street course pace from St. Petersburg carries over to Long Beach, and this time Romain Grosjean is not taken out from contact with Scott McLaughlin and Grosjean gets his first career victory. Colton Herta will make it at least two Andretti cars in the top five and Kyle Kirkwood will finish in the top ten, but lose at least three spots from his starting position. Scott McLaughlin will not be the top finish Team Penske driver. Ed Carpenter Racing has one car start in the top twenty. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has at least one car make the second round of qualifying. There will be a new championship leader after Long Beach. Sleeper: Callum Ilott.