Even the bad days are good. The Indianapolis 500 would have been a disaster for any other team if it had contact exiting the pit lane after leading most of the early stages. Instead, Palou drove his buns off and finished fourth.
Palou doesn't even have double points padding his championship lead. This is all naturally, baby, and Palou is by far the best driver in IndyCar. He isn't going to lose any races. If he is averaging a finish of 3.5 through eight races, even if he takes step back and only averages a seventh or eighth for the remainder of the season, nobody is going to come close.
Even if someone matches the tear Palou has been on for the first half of the season in the final nine races that will not be enough to take the championship. This is over. The question is whether Palou is hoisting the Astor Cup in Portland or Laguna Seca or maybe he does it Gateway.
2. Josef Newgarden is going to put up a fight for Palou, but second isn't going to be good enough, especially if Palou is winning races. We know Newgarden could do it. In 2020, he clawed himself back into the championship battle after Scott Dixon had a gargantuan championship lead and that was with a double points Indianapolis 500.
Newgarden is 81 points back with nine races to go. That is nine points per race he must make up. I know I just said Palou has locked up this championship, but Newgarden can do that. There is still a doubleheader at Iowa ahead of us. We will know whether Newgarden has a legitimate shot after those two races. Today was a good day. Definitely worthy of a podium result.
3. This wasn't Patricio O'Ward's best race. It is kind of startling that O'Ward finished third after losing so many spots at the start, some of which were self-inflicted after blocking Santino Ferrucci. It felt like another race where O'Ward was going to overstep it and lose out big time. He settled into this race and made up spots late. Considering how the last two races have gone, pulling out a third today is a massive result for O'Ward and McLaren.
4. Start 23rd, finish fourth, who else but Scott Dixon? Oh, and he did it in a backup car. Dixon was clinical today. He avoided some trouble, which gave him a few spots, but he was making passes and getting more out of the alternate tires than others. Only Scott Dixon can pull out results like this. It really was the drive of the day. Last season, Dixon had a significantly better second half of his season compared to the first half. He could be on his way to repeating that in 2023.
5. Andretti Autosport has a Ph.D. in stupid, and Andretti Autosport cost itself another race victory today. This should have been Colton Herta's first victory in over a year. Herta led 33 laps from pole position and was close to untouchable, but Andretti Autosport just does not know how to win races. The team brought Herta in for his final pit stop with 15 laps remaining and the fuel save in the closing laps not only cost Herta a victory, he went from first to fifth.
There was no reason why Herta had to come in with 15 laps remaining. He could have come in with 14 laps to go, like Palou, Newgarden, O'Ward and Dixon all did. Herta may have been able to hang on until 13 laps to go. A team could make it to the finish from 15 laps to go, but not at the pace necessary to win today. Andretti Autosport had control. It was on serve and it double faulted mightily.
There really is no excuse. This is a massive loss for the team. Herta might be the highest paid driver in IndyCar but that comes with a cost and that cost at the moment is driving for the most inept team strategically in IndyCar. I hope the money is worth because Herta isn't going to be close to earning the Super License points necessary of qualifying for Formula One anytime soon.
6. Most times a sixth-place finish after a few tough moments in the middle of the field would be a great day for a driver. When one of your teammates wins and another finishes fourth, sixth is a disappointment. I don't want to say Marcus Ericsson should be devastated with this result, but he wasn't in the same zip code as Palou today, and that is the man to beat.
I know Ericsson is second in the championship, but just finishing in the top ten isn't going to be enough. He is doing well, but Ericsson is more likely to lose a handful of spots in the championship than maintain second.
7. For all the problems Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has exhibited in recent weeks, Christian Lundgaard is doing a remarkable job and his third consecutive top ten finish on permanent road courses should be raising some eyebrows. These aren't some lucky results either. In all three races, Lundgaard qualified in the top ten as well. In one of them, Lundgaard started on pole position. The #45 team is finding some speed, and it is good. RLLR might be lost but it isn't that far off if Lundgaard is consistently qualifying and finishing in the top ten on road courses.
This team should see this result as a positive even if there is plenty of work to do. The biggest concern is somebody is going to snag Lundgaard if he keeps doing this.
8. Scott McLaughlin pulled out an eighth-place result today. Nothing stellar, but a good day. McLaughlin was racy but he was stuck in the middle of the field. It is hard to believe his only top five finish this season is his Barber Motorsports Park victory. It feels like we have seen good days from McLaughlin this year but they haven't quite been there. McLaughlin is still going to be a threat throughout the rest of this season, but I think through eight races he would see the results a tad underwhelming.
9. Kyle Kirkwood spun at the start, had to serve a penalty for avoidable contact, which was dropping to the rear of the field under green flag conditions and then he was balked coming into his pit box when Marcus Armstrong had an unsafe release, and despite all this, Kirkwood ended up ninth! This is one race after being run over at the start of Detroit and finishing sixth. If Kirkwood can make it through the opening lap in one of these race he could end up with a second victory before we know it.
I know I said Dixon had the drive of the day, but Kirkwood has a strong case, and for a driver who made numerous mistakes last season and cost himself plenty of respectable results, Kirkwood has turned around plenty of disastrous results into something impressive this season. He has a victory, but races like Detroit and Road America show much greater growth.
10. New team, same old struggles on alternate tires, Alexander Rossi's stint on the alternate compound cost him and that is partly why ended up tenth in this race. This day should have been better. He was better than O'Ward all weekend. He was better than I would say eight of the other nine guys in the top ten all weekend, and yet Rossi is tenth.
Rossi was the fastest driver in every practice, but when it matters most, Rossi was fifth in the final round of qualifying and wasn't a threat for pole position. In the race, one stint took him out of contention. Rossi was never going to win this race, but he should have finished at least in the top five. It felt like entering qualifying we were on the verge of Rossi's McLaren breakthrough, but something always seems to go wrong. It feels like it should happen, but will it?
11. Graham Rahal said he was having some back issues before this race, but despite those issues, Rahal still finished 11th. Road America has always been one of Rahal and RLLR's better tracks. This was a good weekend for the team. The team wants to be better, but this is a stepping stone that must be taken. Let's see how this group does at Mid-Ohio.
12. I am covering both Ed Carpenter Racing drivers here. Rinus VeeKay was 12th, but probably, definitely should have had a penalty for spinning Felix Rosenqvist. How that wasn't avoidable contact is baffling. VeeKay also had an unsafe release. It wasn't a great day but considering how things have been for ECR, VeeKay will take it.
Ryan Hunter-Reay did a good job in his first race with the team, finishing 17th. Hunter-Reay ran all the laps. If he had not brought out a red flag in the first round of qualifying, he likely starts better than 27th. That set Hunter-Reay back today. Let's see what steps he and ECR takes heading into Mid-Ohio.
13. Will Power had a weekend from hell, accident in practice with Scott Dixon, poor qualifying run, and he was forced off strategy after the team could not get the car full of fuel on one pit stop. Power salvaged a 13th-place finish today. This championship defense is not going to plan. Taking into account the terrible qualifying results, Power is off this season. His wife has had some health concerns. It is understandable if Power is distracted. Things were on the verge of boiling over this weekend.
14. Meyer Shank Racing had Simon Pagenaud finish 14th and Hélio Castroneves finish 15th. This is a step forward for the team. Pagenaud at least looked competitive today and was racing again some bigger names. The team still has some work to do. It wasn't that close to cracking the top ten.
15. Santino Ferrucci was 16th in what was a little disappointing of a day. Ferrucci started 11th and spent much of the first stint in the top ten, but then he lost some spots in a pit cycle and he had a brief moment heading off course after racing his teammate Benjamin Pedersen. It could have been worse, but could have been better. Pedersen had an off at the start and he went from tenth to outside the top twenty immediately. Pedersen never recovered and ended up 21st.
16. Let's crack through the rest of the grid. Juncos Hollinger Racing is stuck at the moment. Callum Ilott was 18th with Agustín Canapino in 19th. I think we are waiting for JHR to have another one of those breakthrough weekends. It feels like the team is due. We know Ilott can do it. JHR cannot find the pace this season.
Dale Coyne Racing failed to have a top twenty finisher for the fourth consecutive race. David Malukas broke down. It wasn't going to be a stellar day but it was going to be better than 20th. Sting Ray Robb had an off and was 22nd.
17. Felix Rosenqvist was spun off after Rinus VeeKay made contact. Rosenqvist drove back into the top ten, an incredible recovery drive, but the last stint did not go his way and Rosenqvist finished 20th, a harsh weekend for him.
18. Speaking of harsh weekends, Marcus Armstrong was in the thick of it for a top five finish, but he didn't stop under caution in the middle of the race, a questionable choice, but somewhat understandable as the team could have gone another five laps before Armstrong had to stop. It was setting up a short penultimate stint on the alternate tire, but the team didn't stay out long enough to open a gap. Armstrong got stuck in traffic, had to make an additional stop and then he spun off late.
This should have been at least a top ten result, instead it was 24th and it wasn't really on the driver.
19. Devlin DeFrancesco lost spots the entire race and finished 23rd, but Romain Grosjean looked like he lost his mind today. Grosjean spun off on his own, he dropped a tire a few other times. He just didn't look comfortable today. His season has unraveled. Entering the month of May, it felt like Grosjean was arguably the best driver this season though the results didn't match it. Halfway through June, he is far from being one of the ten best this season.
20. Another difficult day for Jack Harvey, botching a restart while already at the back of the field. Harvey cannot afford to overdrive the car. Sometimes just getting the car home and completing all the laps will be enough for a good results, at least something better than where a driver starts. RLLR already made some engineering changes. There is one spot left open to change.
21. This was not a great day from race control.
One, there was holding the caution until after every car entered pit lane for the Grosjean spit and stall in turn three. If every car was going to pit and all the cars were beyond pit in when Grosjean stalled, there was no need to hold the caution. The caution should have come out and then everyone could stop then. It likely could have prevented some, if not all, the unsafe releases.
Then there were the penalties. Kirkwood was penalized for avoidable contact when he bumped the rear of O'Ward at the start, sending O'Ward a little wide and costing O'Ward some positions. Kirkwood spun, was at the rear of the field and was still penalized. VeeKay hit the rear of Rosenqvist entering turn three and there was no penalty.
That doesn't line up.
The O'Ward block was the right call, but then Graham Rahal was called for one that didn't look like much, especially because of the way the straightaway bends heading into Canada corner.
Then on the unsafe release penalties, Armstrong came out and cut off Kirkwood, forcing Kirkwood to miss his pit stall and costing Kirkwood positions. VeeKay cut off Pagenaud, but Pagenaud was still able to get into his pit box, though delayed. VeeKay also served the same penalty.
Not long ago, an unsafe release was to the back of the line. This one-position penalty is quite a forgiving change of heart. Considering how tough these penalties have been in the past, to reduce these penalties to giving back a spot here and there is awfully kind, almost too kind. It is almost like if roughing the passer went from 15 yards and an automatic first down to just five yards and a replay of the down. That is a big change.
IndyCar had done thing consistently for such a long time that these changes are too much in the other direction. I don't think anyone was calling for less strict penalties. I think some of these calls were fitting for the infractions. It is unclear why race control wants to be less stringent in some of these cases. It feels like race control doesn't want to play the bad guy ever. I am not sure we should want race control to take such a stance.
Then there was the free-for-all natural of the start and restart where cars again are darting out of line and attempting runs from six cars back to make a pass. The start and restart procedure must be adjusted. Again, it is too kind to let the drivers do whatever they want. There shouldn't be an issue with cars holding their positions until the start/finish line. It would at least clean up the mess.
22. The re-pave didn't take any of the luster out of Road America. It was another brilliant race. Now we have two weeks until Mid-Ohio.
