The eighth round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season brings the series to Road America. After the Indianapolis 500 and IndyCar's first race on a new Detroit street course, the series now visits the longest track on the schedule. After having five different winners in the first five races, there have been two repeat winners. There have been four different winners in the last four Road America races. In two of the last three seasons has the Road America winner gone on to win the championship. Eight times has the Road America winner won the championship. The only time the Indianapolis 500 winner won at Road America in the same season was in 1995 with Jacques Villeneuve, who also went on to win the CART championship that season. Speaking of 1995, that was also the last time Road America had been resurfaced prior this offseason. With a new ribbon of asphalt, Dario Franchitti's track record of 1:39.866 stands a good chance of being broken.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday June 18 with green flag scheduled for 1:23 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 4:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 10:55 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 1:55 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Warm-up: 10:15 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 1:23 p.m. ET (55 laps)
Qualifying: 1:55 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Warm-up: 10:15 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 1:23 p.m. ET (55 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Palou's Lead
IndyCar is accustomed to close championship battles going down to the final race, but through seven races in the 2023 season, we are seeing Álex Palou running away from the field already.
Though double points were not awarded after this year's Indianapolis 500, Palou's championship lead is 51 points entering Road America with 11 races remaining this season. If Palou starts this weekend, he is guaranteed to leave Wisconsin as the championship leader. Even if Palou did not show up for Road America, only Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Marcus Ericsson could surpass Palou and that would require Ericsson winning at Elkhart Lake. Palou has led the championship after three consecutive races and will be guaranteed a fourth consecutive if he starts this weekend.
Palou has started 40 races for Chip Ganassi Racing. Palou has led the championship after 14 of those races and he has been ranked in the top five of the championship after 36 of those races. The worst his championship position has been with Ganassi was eighth after this year's St. Petersburg season opener.
Since reunification, this is only third time in 16 seasons the championship lead after seven races was greater than 50 points. Simon Pagenaud had a 59-point lead through seven races in the 2016 season. In 2020, Scott Dixon held an 84-point lead after seven races. Both Pagenaud and Dixon went on to claim the title in those respective seasons.
This is only the fifth time since 2008 the championship lead is greater than 25 points after seven races. Only one of those champions did not hold on to take the title. That was Will Power in 2012 when he had a 36-point lead through seven races.
In the last four seasons, the driver leading the championship after seven races went on to win the title, however, in only eight of the 16 seasons since reunification has the championship leader through seven events held on to be champion.
While Palou is ahead now, there is still plenty of time for the competition. In 2020, Dixon's championship lead grew to 117 points over Josef Newgarden after eight races and only six races followed in the pandemic-altered season. However, over the next five races, Newgarden decreased the deficit to 32 points and double points were not on offer for the season finale that year at St. Petersburg.
Pagenaud's championship lead in 2016 also grew after the eighth race of the season. Pagenaud's lead went up to 80 points with eight races remaining, but the lead decreased. It was down to 20 points over Will Power after the 13th race at Pocono. Power had an accident at Watkins Glen with Charlie Kimball, allowing Pagenaud to increase his advantage, but it was only 43 points, enough to keep the champion alive into the Sonoma season finale if the finale was only single points and not double points, as it was.
The last time an IndyCar championship was decided before the season finale was the 2007 Champ Car season when Sébastien Bourdais claimed his fourth title with a race to spare. The last time this series, following the Indy Racing League lineage, was decided early was in 2005 when Dan Wheldon clinched the title with a victory at Chicagoland with two races to spare.
Daly Out
Since the most recent IndyCar outing at Detroit, there has been a driver change.
Conor Daly has been relieved of his duty as the driver of the #20 BitNile Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing. Daly had driven for Ed Carpenter Racing since 2020. Daly started as the road/street course driver in the #20 Chevrolet, splitting the car with Ed Carpenter. Daly ran the Indianapolis 500 for ECR in each of those seasons while contesting the other ovals in the #59 Gallagher Chevrolet with Carlin in place of Max Chilton, who focused on the road/street courses and ran the Indianapolis 500.
In 2022, Daly became the full-time driver of the #20 Chevrolet. Over 46 starts with ECR, Daly had one top five finish and three top ten finishes, including top ten results in the last two Indianapolis 500s, a sixth in 2022 and an eighth this year. However, Daly's average finish over those 46 starts was 16.782.
During that same timeframe, Rinus VeeKay has won once, stood on the poidum four times and has eight top five finishes and 18 top ten finishes. The Dutchman's career average finish is 14.094. In the intra-team ECR battle, VeeKay was the top finisher in 25 of the 45 races against Daly, including going 9-0 head-to-head in VeeKay's rookie season in 2020. Daly was on top in 17 of those events with Carpenter taking top ECR driver on three occasions.
In qualifying, VeeKay topped Daly 30 times with Daly qualifying the best 14 times and Carpenter topping both once during that span. VeeKay has ben the ECR qualifier in six races this season while Carpenter was the best of the three drivers at Texas in April.
The interesting thing is this season Daly has been the top ECR finisher in four of seven races, including in the last two races.
Joining Ed Carpenter Racing in place of Daly will be Ryan Hunter-Reay. Hunter-Reay won the 2012 IndyCar championship and he won the 2014 Indianapolis 500. Hunter-Reay's 18 career victories have him ranked 25th all-time. His 283 starts are the tenth most in IndyCar history. Hunter-Reay's 72 top five finishes have him tied with Josef Newgarden for 20th all-time.
Hunter-Reay was 11th in the Indianapolis 500 this past May driving for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, his first start since the 2021 Long Beach season finale, his final race with Andretti Autosport. Last year, Hunter-Reay ran two IMSA races, the 12 Hours of Sebring and Petit Le Mans with the Chip Ganassi Racing Cadillac program and he competed in the full Superstar Racing Experience season with his best finish being fourth on dirt at Sharon Speedway in Ohio.
Hunter-Reay has made nine starts at Road America. He has four top five finishes and five top ten finishes with his best result being second in 2018. VeeKay's best finish in three Road America starts is 13th, which was in his first start back in 2020. VeeKay did sweep the U.S. F2000 doubleheader at Road America in 2017 and he won here in Indy Lights in 2019.
Can Anyone New Win at Road America?
There have been eight Road America races since IndyCar returned in 2016 and three teams have claimed victory in all eight of those races: Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport. That means seven teams entered this weekend are looking for their first victory at Road America and those seven teams are all aiming to become the fourth different team to win this season.
The leading favorite is Arrow McLaren. All three of McLaren's drivers are in the top ten in the championship and the team has been on the podium in four of seven races this season. Patricio O'Ward has three runner-up results this year alone, and O'Ward was second in the second race of the 2020 Road America doubleheader after leading 43 laps from pole position. O'Ward lost that race to Felix Rosenqivst, as the Swede overtook the Mexican on the penultimate lap. To date, it is Rosenqvist's only IndyCar victory. Rosenqvist has finished sixth or better in three of his four Road America starts.
While O'Ward looks for his first victory around the 4.048-mile road course, like Rosenqvist, Alexander Rossi has already won at the circuit. Rossi won the 2019 race, leading 54 of 55 laps from second on the grid. Rossi had finished on the podium in three of the last five Road America races. He led 16 laps from pole position last year before finishing third.
Though recent form would suggest otherwise, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Graham Rahal has two podium finishes, three top five finishes and seven top ten finishes in nine Road America starts. Rahal's average finish here is 8.111. Outside of the second race of the 2020 doubleheader where Rahal was run over in the first corner and failed to complete a lap, he has completed every lap in his other eight starts.
Christian Lundgaard started 13th and finished tenth last year in his first visit to Road America. Lundgaard also led a lap during a pit cycle. Jack Harvey has good qualifying form at Road America, but his race form is lacking. Harvey has an average starting position of 10.6 with his best qualifying efforts being second and third at the track, but his best finish came last year when he finished 13th.
The most recent team that wasn't one of the three recent Road America winners to finish on the podium here was Dale Coyne Racing when Álex Palou was third in his third career start driving the #55 Honda in 2020. Three years removed from Palou, Coyne has David Malukas and Sting Ray Robb as its drivers. Malukas swept the Pro Mazda races here in 2018 and he won in Indy Lights in 2021. He was 16th last year in his Road America IndyCar debut. Robb never won in 11 Road to Indy starts at this circuit. He was second in the second race of the 2020 Indy Pro 2000 weekend and he was second last year in Indy Lights after starting on pole position.
Meyer Shank Racing has two top fifteen finishes in six Road America starts in IndyCar. Last year, Simon Pagenaud picked up the MSR's best Road America finish, taking the checkered flag in 12th. Pagenaud has finished outside the top ten in four consecutive Road America races and in six of nine Road America starts. Hélio Castroneves was fifth and third in the two Road America races in 2016 and 2017, but he was 22nd last year. His career average finish at Road America is 12.571.
Callum Ilott was 11th last year at Road America in his first Road America appearance. Juncos Hollinger Racing has won twice at Elkhart Lake in Indy Lights, first with Victor Franzoni in 2018 and then with VeeKay in 2019. Franzoni also won at Road America in 2017 driving for Juncos in Pro Mazda. Artem Petrov and Manuel Sulaimán also won for the team at this track in Indy Pro 2000 in 2020 and 2021.
Since Road America returned to the schedule in 2016, A.J. Foyt Racing has one top ten finish. Charlie Kimball was tenth in the second race of the 2020 doubleheader. This is Santino Ferrucci's first visit to Road America since 2020. Ferrucci was sixth in both races of that doubleheader. Benjamin Pedersen made three Indy Lights starts at Road America and he finished second, seventh and 11th in those events.
Or Will It Be More of the Same?
While there are seven teams and 16 drivers looking to break the Penske/Ganassi/Andretti hold at Road America, it should be acknowledged that these three teams are quite strong at this place.
Last year, these three teams were each represented on the podium, as was the case in 2021. In the eight Road America races since 2016, these three teams combine for 21 of the 24 podium finishers and 33 of the 40 top five finishers.
Chip Ganassi Racing leads the way with four victories in the last eight trips to Wisconsin. Scott Dixon won here in 2017 and the first race in 2020. Dixon's five top five finishes in the last eight Road America races is tied with Will Power for the most. Álex Palou won here two years ago and he had three consecutive top ten finishes at this track before contact with Marcus Ericsson took Palou out of last year's race. Ericsson has four consecutive top ten finishes at this track.
Along with the three Ganassi veterans, Marcus Armstrong will make his Road America debut this weekend. Armstrong matched his career best finish last race at Detroit when he finished eighth. He has finished in the top fifteen in all five of his starts and he has been the top rookie finisher in every one of his starts.
Team Penske was one gearbox failure away from having won four of the last eight Road America races. Instead, Penske has won three times, two at the hands of Josef Newgarden, including last year's race and Will Power won in 2016.
Newgarden's 149 laps led are the most at this track since it returned to competition in 2016. It is more than double the next best driver. Newgarden has led 25 laps or more in four of the last six Road America events, winning two of them, but a slow pit stop dropped him from the lead in the first race in 2020 and his gearbox failed him while leading on the restart on the penultimate lap in 2021.
Power has five top five finishes here since 2016, but he was 11th and 19th in two of the last three races here. Power led 46 of the 50 laps on his way to victory seven years ago, but he has only led 14 of the last 330 laps run around this circuit.
Scott McLaughlin was seventh in last year's race after finishing 14th in his first visit in 2021.
Andretti Autosport has been close to a second Road America victory. Colton Herta has never finished worse than eighth here and he has four consecutive top five finishes. He has started on the front row in three of his five starts, including picking up his first career pole position in 2019. However, Herta has still yet to lead a lap at this track.
Romain Grosjean started seventh and finished fifth in his first Road America visit driving for Dale Coyne Racing in 2021. Last year, in his first Road America visit with Andretti Autosport, Grosjean started sixth and finished fourth, leading a lap through the pit cycle.
After a difficult end to his Indianapolis 500, Kyle Kirkwood responded with an emphatic drive from the back of the field after opening lap contact in Detroit to finish sixth, his second top ten finish of the season. In six Road to Indy starts at Road America, Kirkwood won five times with a mechanical failure in the second race in 2021 ending what likely was going to be a podium finish.
Devlin DeFrancesco was 18th in last year's Road America race. DeFrancesco has finished in the top fifteen in the last two races, the first time in his IndyCar career he has had consecutive top fifteen results. His 12th in Detroit matched his career best finish.
Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series have had at least four different winners in their last four races and all three Road to Indy series will be at Road America this weekend.
Indy Lights has opened with five different winners in the first five races. It is the first time the series has had five different winners to open a season since 2016. Only once in Indy Lights history has a season began with six different winners in the first six races. That was in 1988 when seven different drivers won the first seven events.
In 2023, Barber winner Christian Rasmussen leads the championship with 178 points. Rasmussen has finished in the top five in four events with his worst result being ninth. Rasmussen won last year at Road America for his first victory in the series.
We nearly had our first repeat winner in Detroit, but a gearbox failure on the final lap while leading kept Nolan Siegel from winning race one. Siegel responded to win race two and paired with two runner-up finishes, Siegel is second in the championship, two points behind Rasmussen.
Hunter McElrea has not won this season, but he is third in the championship with 138 points and three top five results. McElrea is six points clear of St. Petersburg winner Danial Frost. Jacob Abel and Louis Foster also have not won this season, but they round out the top six in the championship. Abel is 50 points behind Rasmussen while Foster is five points behind Abel. Foster has won three pole positions this season.
Reece Gold won the first Detroit race and he is seventh in the championship on 122 points, but that victory is his only top five finish. Matteo Nannini won on the IMS road course, but that is his only top ten finish this season. Nannini is on 119 points, two ahead of James Roe, Jr. Ernie Francis, Jr. and Enaam Ahmed are tied for tenth in the championship on 113 points. Francis, Jr. was third in the first Detroit race while Ahmed's best finish was fourth at Barber.
Josh Green and Colin Kaminsky are tied on 103 points. Christian Bogle has 99 points while Jagger Jones and Kyffin Simpson are tied on 97 points. Jones was second in the first Detroit race. Jamie Chadwick has 84 points while Rasmus Lindh is on 80 points. Josh Pierson returns after running the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Pierson's best finish in two starts in 16th.
Indy Lights will race at 11:10 a.m. ET on Sunday June 18. That race is scheduled for 20 laps or 55 minutes.
USF Pro 2000 has had four different winners in the last four races.
Myles Rowe continues to lead the championship on 165 points with consecutive fifth-place results. Rowe has won three times this season and has six top five results from seven races. Rowe has a 22-point lead in the championship over Joel Granfors, who has finished first and second in the last two races.
Francesco Pizzi has not won this season, but Pizzi has four top five results and six top ten finishes, giving the Italian 128 points. Salvador de Alba won at Indianapolis Raceway Park and finished second the race before on the IMS road course. These results lifted de Alba up to 124 points and fourth in the championship. Kiko Porto was on the podium in three of the first four races, but he has finished seventh or worse in the last three races. Porto sits on 117 points in fifth.
Reece Ushijima, Jack William Miller and Jonathan Browne are all tied on 101 points, and none of the three drivers have won this season. Jace Denmark is ninth on 96 points with Lirim Zendeli is on 83 points in tenth after skipping Indianapolis Raceway Park. Michael d'Orlando has finished in the top six in two of the last three events and he is 11th on 81 points, 11 points ahead of Jackson Lee.
The first USF Pro 2000 race of the weekend will be at 3:40 p.m. ET on Saturday June 17 with the second race being at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday June 18.
There have been four different winers in the last four U.S. F2000 races as well.
Lochie Hughes continues to lead the championship with his worst result being sixth in the most recent event at Indianapolis Raceway Park. Hughes has 208 points, four points ahead of Simon Sikes. Sikes has six podium finishes and a fourth but his worst finish was 13th.
Nikita Johnson has four consecutive top five finishes and he is 38 points behind Hughes. Evagoras Papasavvaas was runner-up at IRP and he is fourth in the championship on 144 points. IRP winner Mac Clark is up to fifth on 140 points. Sam Corry won the first race on the IMS road course and he runs out the top six in the championship on 108 points.
Chase Gardner has 103 points in seventh, one point ahead of Jorge Garciarce. Danny Dyszelski sits on 88 points with Max Garcia in tenth on 81 points.
Both U.S. F2000 races will be on Saturday June 17. The first race will be at 12:10 p.m. ET with the second one schedule for 4:45 p.m. ET.
Fast Facts
This will be the tenth IndyCar race held on June 18 and the first since A.J. Allmendinger won at Portland in 2006. It was Allmendinger's first career victory in his first start with Forsythe Racing.
This year's Road America race falls on the 23rd anniversary of Hélio Castroneves' first career victory at Belle Isle.
This June 18 is also the 45th anniversary of Rick Mears' first career victory at Milwaukee.
Eleven drivers entered in this year's Road America race are looking for their first career IndyCar victory.
Eight drivers have had their first career victory come at Road America. Felix Rosenqvist is the most recent first career winner at Road America (second race of 2020 doubleheader).
For four of the eight first-time winners at Road America, that was their only IndyCar victory (Héctor Rebaque, Uncle Jacques Villeneuve, Alex Tagliani, Rosenqvist).
With eight of 33 Road America races producing first-time winners, that is a percentage of 24.24%.
The average starting position for a Road America winner is 3.7878 with a median of third.
Ten Road America races have been won from pole position. Fifteen Road America races have been won from the front row. Twenty-seven of 33 Road America races have been won from a top six starting position (81.818%).
Two of the previous four races have been won from outside the first three races (both races of the 2020 doubleheader, ninth for Scott Dixon in race one and seventh for Rosenqvist in race two).
The average starting position of the eight first-time winners at Road America is 6.875 with a median of 6.5.
Five of the six worst starting positions for Road America winners were first-time winners.
Four of the six Road America races won from a starting position outside the top six positions were first-time winners.
Only one Road America race has been won from outside the top ten. Alex Tagliani won from 13th in 2004.
The average number of lead changes in a Road America race is 4.484 with a median of four.
There have been eight lead changes or more in the last three Road America races. Only three of the first 30 Road America races had eight lead changes or more.
There have been three Road America races without a lead change (1987, 1993, 2003).
The average number of cautions in a Road America race is 2.21875 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 6.5625 with a median of 5.5.
Three of the last four Road America races have had three cautions or more. Last year's race had five cautions, the seventh Road America race with at least five caution periods (21.212%).
The most cautions in a Road America race is six (1995, 1997, 2001, 2006).
Eleven Road America races have gone caution-free (33.333%). There were consecutive caution-free races in 2018 and 2019.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden makes it two consecutive Road America victories and Team Penske has multiple podium finishers. Chevrolet has at least four top five finishers. The top Honda finisher will be an Andretti Autosport car. Álex Palou's championship lead will be less than 38 points after this weekend, but he and Marcus Ericsson will not come together this weekend. Patricio O'Ward finishes the race with all four tires still intact. All three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers will finish better than their starting positions. Ryan Hunter-Reay will finish in the top fifteen and ahead of Rinus VeeKay. Dale Coyne Racing will have at least one top twenty finisher. Sleeper: Marcus Armstrong.
