It was an anniversary season for NASCAR, as the 75th Cup season took place. It felt like many that came before it, but there were some differences. There was a street race in Chicago. North Wilkesboro returned and hosted the All-Star Race. Both those events occurred in wet conditions, one was just damp and the other was during historic rainfall. Add to it, we had a debutant winner for the first time in over 60 years! There was also a first-time champion and the fifth different champion in the last five seasons.
With the season behind us, let's review some predictions made about 2023 prior to the season and see how those turned out.
1. At least three winless drivers make the Cup playoffs
Correct!
Three winless drivers made the Cup playoffs, and even in a season where 15 drivers ended up winning a Cup race, those three winless drivers remained winless through the end of the season. Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Bubba Wallace all made the playoffs despite no victories. This happened one year after 15 drivers made the playoffs with a victory and a record-tying 19 different drivers won a race.
2. At least two new teams make the Cup playoffs
Correct!
Welcome to the playoffs Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Front Row Motorsports and JTG Daugherty Racing! There were three new playoff teams this year compared to 2022. JTG Daugherty got this prediction halfway there in the first race of the season when Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the the Daytona 500.
RFK Racing had both its cars in a comfortable position on points to make the playoffs but Chris Buescher assured the team's participation with a victory at Richmond. Brad Keselowski made it anyway on points. For good measure, Front Row Motorsports made it when Michael McDowell won a beatdown on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
3. Kyle Busch wins at least two pole positions in the Cup Series
Wrong!
Busch did win a pole position, it came at Gateway in June and he won that race from pole position, but it was Busch's only pole position of 2023. He came close to a second pole position. He started second in both Richmond races. He did start first at Dover, but qualifying was washed out, so that doesn't count. He had eight top five starting positions this season, but this was his fifth consecutive season without winning multiple pole positions.
4. Every driver that makes the round of eight will have double-digit top ten finish totals entering that round
Correct!
The final eight drivers were William Byron, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. Here were there top ten finish totals entering the semifinal round:
Byron - 18
Truex - 15
Hamlin - 16
Larson - 15
Buescher - 15
Bell - 16
Reddick - 14
Blaney - 14
There you have it. They were all on 14 or more top ten finishes entering the final four races. Bubba Wallace nearly spoiled this prediction, as he had only eight top ten finishes at the time the semifinal round began and he was knocking on the door of a final eight position.
5. Denny Hamlin will be in the top five on raw points for at least 15 races
Correct!
This did not get off on the right note. Hamlin's penalty for deliberate contact at Phoenix with Ross Chastain knocked him down to 15th in the championship. Hamlin would not progress into the top five in the championship until he won at Kansas in May. He remained in the top five after Dover, but he dropped out after Charlotte when Hamlin was taken out of the race from contact with Chase Elliott.
Hamlin would not get back into the top five on raw points until Loudon in July. On raw points, Hamlin remained in the top five from Loudon through the end of the season, 17 races. Add that to the two races in May and Hamlin was in the top five on raw points after 19 of 36 races.
6. A.J. Allmendinger makes it to at least the round of 12 in the Cup playoffs
Wrong!
Allmendinger did not make the playoffs in what was a rather underwhelming season for him and the Kaulig Racing operation. The season started well with a sixth-place finish in the Daytona 500, but Allmendinger did not have another top ten finish until sixth at Sonoma in June. That spark an early summer bump in results with a tenth at Nashville and a third at Atlanta, but his only other top ten finish in there regular season was fourth at Watkins Glen.
He ended the regular season 21st in points but 96 points off making the playoffs. Of course, Allmendinger went on to win the Charlotte playoff race, meaning if he had made the round of 12 he would have advanced to the round of eight. Funny how these things play out.
7. Project 91 will start fewer than six races
Correct!
It is hard to deny Trackhouse's Project 91, an initiative to get drivers from other motorsports disciplines into a NASCAR Cup race has not been a success, considering it won a race, but the program has not lived up to what team owner Justin Marks sold us. Marks said the plan was to run the Project 91 car at "six to eight races."
We got three with two drivers. Kimi Räikkönen came back after running at Watkins Glen in 2022 and Räikkönen was 29th at Austin this year.
The big one was Shane van Gisbergen, who showed up and won on debut in a sensational drive in the inaugural Chicago street race. Van Gisbergen returned for the IMS road course race and finished tenth, becoming the first driver to finish in the top ten of his first two Cup Series starts since Terry Labonte in 1978.
However, Indianapolis was the final race for Project 91 in 2023, running only three events, half of the minimum that was initially hoped for. It has led to van Gisbergen signing a NASCAR contract with Trackhouse, so it has worked as a recruiting tool, but I believe I had this one.
8. At least one championship ineligible driver wins multiple times in NASCAR's second division
Correct!
Back in December, when I wrote these predictions, I listed six drivers as possible options to get this prediction correct. The driver that did it was none of those six drivers. If you made me list the drivers most likely to make this prediction a successful prediction back in December, the driver that did it likely would not have made my top ten and I don't think I would have had him in my top twenty.
Who was it?
It was A.J. Allmendinger!
Allmendinger won twice in Kaulig Racing's #10 entry. He won at Austin and then he won at Nashville. Allmendinger was the only championship ineligible driver to win multiple times in NASCAR's second division this season.
9. Sheldon Creed has at least five top five finishes in the first 17 races of the Grand National Series
Wrong!
Creed only had seven top five finishes this season, only two of which were in the first 17 races this season. He was third at Phoenix in March and second at Talladega in May, meaning he was on pace for falling just short of five top five finishes in the first 17 races through the first nine events. Creed did end the season with five top five finishes in the final 11 races, four of which were runner-up results. Strange year.
10. Chase Elliott does not win the SRX season finale
Correct!
Not only did Elliott did not win the SRX finale this season, he didn't even run an SRX race after winning the finale in each of the first two seasons of the series. Of course, Elliott had his own off-track issues this year, which likely made a one-night extracurricular unlikely to be approved this year from Rick Hendrick. At least it is the offseason and Elliott has more time to get back on the slopes.
11. Layne Riggs averages 27 points or more per Truck start
Wrong!
The official record book will say Layne Riggs had no points in three Truck starts this season. However, Riggs changed championship eligibility midseason. Prior to sacrificing those points, Riggs had 62 points for an average of 20.667. It was a shame he didn't get more starts, but it was nice that Riggs ran three races in NASCAR's second division and he scored 71 points, an average of 23.667.
12. Jimmie Johnson's average finish in the Cup Series will be worse than 18.588
Correct!
In Johnson's part-time return to Cup racing driving for Legacy Motor Club, he made three starts with finishes of 31st, 38th and 37th an average of 35.333. Most Cup races only have a starting grid of 36 cars, so it is quite impressive for Johnson to have such a poor average finish. He went to IndyCar and came back to NASCAR a worse driver. Such a shame.
Please recognize sarcasm.
Eight for 12 this year, slightly down from the year before, but still not a bad showing. Hitting on two-thirds is kind of the minimum standard. It is better than half, but not too low to be disappointing. It isn't high enough to flip for joy over. It is perfectly adequate.
