Monday, November 27, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: The Death of the One-Time Champion

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The MotoGP season ended with a chaotic Valencia round. Marc Márquez ended his time with Honda in the gravel, but not because of his own fault. For the first time since the inaugural world championship season, the premier class did not have a repeat winner this season. Trackhouse is apparently purchase a MotoGP team. Shane van Gisbergen called time on his Supercars career on a low note. Something happened for the first time since 1952. Max Verstappen closed the 2023 Formula One season with his 19th victory of his season, but that is not what is on my mind...

The Death of the One-Time Champion
This was the season of Max Verstappen, but this title and the last decade or so of Formula One has me thinking: Will any driver end a Formula One career with only one championship again?

Three drivers have combined to win 13 of the last 14 world championships. Two constructors have won all 14 of those championships. Three of the last four drivers to win a world championship won at least three consecutive titles during this 14-year period. 

It appears Formula One has changed to where one team can have a stranglehold on the competition for an extended period of time and the top driver from that team can collect championships like they are going out of style. After the last two seasons from Red Bull, is there any reason to believe it will not dominate and win again with Verstappen? Sergio Pérez isn't going to be able to keep up and steal a championship. Until proven otherwise, we are kind of resigned to Max Verstappen claim every championship for the foreseeable future.

Of course, nothing lasts forever. Michael Schumacher eventually did not win a championship. Sebastian Vettel lost his luster rather quickly. Mercedes is on a slump. There will be a day where Verstappen and Red Bull is not dominating and not claiming the world titles. But we could be a few years away from that. 

Mercedes won seven consecutive titles before Verstappen and Red Bull broke through. The Dutch-Austrian combination isn't even halfway to that mark. If they do match that output, we are talking about every title through 2025 going in one direction. In that case, Verstappen would go level with Schuacher and Hamilton on world championships and at that point Verstappen will likely have become the second driver to break 100 grand prix victories and at that point have surpassed Hamilton for first all-time. 

It might play out that way, but in two decades Formula One will have changed drastically compared to its first 60 seasons. 

Formula One has always been streaky, but there were always moments when someone else could breakthrough. The sport was cyclical, but there were periods when one group could hit on something, even if it wasn't for a season or two. There have always been a handful of top quality drivers competing, and at one time there was a good chance a few of them could reach the ultimate goal and win a world championship. 

In contemporary Formula One, we almost have a skewed record book where only two drivers were capable of claiming a title. Unfortunately, people are not getting smarter either, and the average viewer will believe there were only two or three great drivers and the rest were rather rubbish. 

Of course, that isn't the case, but the way things have turned, the record book doesn't reflect the skill we have seen.

Consider it this way:

From 1962, the year of Graham Hill's first of two world championships, to 1993, the year of Alain Prost's fourth and final championship, there were nine one-time champions in 32 seasons.

From 1994, the year of Michael Schumacher's first world championship, to 2023, the year of Verstappen's third consecutive championship, there have only been five one-time champions in 30 seasons. 

At one point, there were five one-time champions in a seven-year period, and those weren't a bunch of rum-dums. Those were James Hunt, Mario Andretti, Jody Scheckter, Alain Jones and Keke Rosberg. Also remember the likes of Gilles Villeneuve, Ronnie Peterson, Carlos Reutemann and Jacques Laffite raced during that era as well and none of those drivers won championships. 

In the last 30 seasons, the one-time champions have been Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Kimi Räikkönen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg. 

Under past circumstances, we likely would have seen Daniel Riccardo win one championship. Maybe Valtteri Bottas gets the rub of a green and wins a title. Perhaps Ferrari would have won with Charles Leclerc already. Going back a little further, Mark Webber fits the criteria. Heck, if Juan Pablo Montoya stays in Formula One for another ten years, he likely would have been fighting for a title as well. 

The current top-heaviness of Formula One worryingly changes the perception of this era and makes it look like there were only two or three great drivers. It is hard to argue against the record book, race winners and champions, but it is never that simple. 

It isn't going to change overnight. We aren't going to see Red Bull fall far if they fall at all in the next season or two. The same way we aren't going to see Alfa Romeo or Williams shoot up out of nowhere, but the lack of competitiveness in Formula One does have greater ramifications down the line. Most drivers risk becoming afterthoughts to history because it appears they were never good enough to achieve anything rather than speak to an era where so few could readily compete at the top.

When compared to past eras, it will appear everyone was better in the past, but that is not necessarily the case. Success was spread around more. There were greater opportunities to win with multiple teams. It allowed a dozen drivers to have moderately respectable careers. That is harder to come by in the 2020s, and does not appear to be getting easier anytime soon. As much as we are talking about the death of the one-time champion, we could be writing about the death of the eight-to-12-time grand prix winner as well where it will either be a driver wins 40 races in a career or only ends up winning once or twice.

I fear many current drivers will only be viewed as laughing stocks, when that isn't an accurate representation of their ability. Charles Leclerc has been a victim to rotten luck and poor team mismanagement. Lando Norris has now exceeded 100 starts and is still looking for his first career victory, but Norris has been competitive and likely should have a victory to his name already. Sergio Pérez battled through mid-field teams to end up at Red Bull, a career of perseverance that was once commonplace. 

Those drivers should not be reduced to caricatures of their careers and becoming punching bags. They might not be all-time greats but they are better than being beaten down for no reason.

Perhaps things will change and the one-time champion will become common again, but based on the last 14 years, there seems little reason to believe that will be the case. Without a change, Formula One loses a more accurate representation of those who competed and risks having the common fan undermine otherwise talented drivers. 

Champions From the Weekend

Francesco Bagnaia clinched the MotoGP World Championship with victory in Valencia.

Théo Pourchaire clinched the Formula Two championship with a seventh and a fifth in the Abu Dhabi round.

Brodie Kostecki clinched the Supercars championship with a sixth-place finishin the first race of the weekend from Adeliade.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen and Francesco Bagnaia, but did you know...

Jorge Martín won the MotoGP sprint race from Valencia, his ninth sprint victory this season. Fermín Aldeguer won the Moto2 race, his fourth consecutive victory and his fifth of the season. Ayumu Sasaki won the Moto3 race, his first victory of the season.

Frederik Vesti (sprint) and Jack Doohan (feature) split the Formula Two races from Abu Dhabi.

Cam Waters and Matt Payne split the Supercars races from Adeliade.

Kyle Larson won the Turkey Night Grand Prix from Ventura Raceway, Larson's fourth victory in the event.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Asian Le Mans Series season opener from Sepang.