And now we are down to 51 days until the 2024 IndyCar Series season opener from St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg has not been kind to the Ed Carpenter Racing organization. ECR has never finished better than sixth in the race. In 12 years visiting St. Petersburg, ECR has failed to have a top ten finisher in nine of those trips. It might not be where ECR wants to open the season, but it will the team's first chance, as with everyone else in IndyCar, to start the year on a positive note. There is always an opportunity to turn fortunes around.
At First Glance... Again, this is fine... it isn't, but it is fine
It is an IndyCar team lineup. Two cars, a veteran entering his fifth year while being paired with a rookie competing in a vast majority of the season. It is not unheard of, and for Ed Carpenter Racing, it is rather common. But it lacks excitement for a team that has not had much to be excited about in recent seasons.
ECR feels stale and it is reverting to stale decisions. After two seasons with Ed Carpenter running all the ovals in a third ECR entry, the team is returning to Carpenter running the oval races in the #20 Chevrolet while another driver will run the road and street courses. In 2024, it will be Christian Rasmussen, the reigning Indy Lights champion who also won titles in Indy Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000.
Rasmussen doesn't need the kiddy glove treatment. He doesn't need to be babied into oval races. With two seasons of Indy Lights and a notable improvement from year one to year two, Rasmussen is deserving of a full-time role. The road/street course driver at ECR is beneath him. He will get the Indianapolis 500, but the Dane deserves a full season.
This is ECR's decision, and a backward one at that. For eight seasons, Carpenter was sharing the #20 Chevrolet with someone. Outside of the first year in 2014, when it produced three race victory with Carpenter and Mike Conway and the #20 entry ended up eighth in the entrants' championship, it has not been a smashing success for the team. It has limited the organization. The team feels stunted when at one time it felt on the verge of breaking into the upper tier of IndyCar.
ECR hasn't had a top ten championship driver in seven seasons. Its only championship top ten driver has been Josef Newgarden. Rinus VeeKay felt like a driver with great potential. The Dutchman is on the verge of stalling out. VeeKay has finished 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th in the championship in four seasons. Last year was the first time he has failed to have a podium finish and failed to have a top five finish.
There is no reason to believe ECR will be better than it was in 2023. Rasmussen could have a few flashy days, but rhythm will be broken at some point. In the Chevrolet camp, Team Penske is still Team Penske. McLaren isn't going to fall off. A.J. Foyt Racing now has a technical partnership with Team Penske. This isn't even taking into consideration Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Autosport and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, three teams that all won in 2024.
At best, ECR is placed sixth out of the ten IndyCar teams, but ECR should be more concerned about those behind than thinking it can catch those ahead.
2023 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Portland)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 2nd (Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 14th (Rinus VeeKay), 25th (Conor Daly), 26th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 30th (Ed Carpenter)
Christian Rasmussen - #20 GuyCare Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
5.3214: Average finish in 28 Indy Lights starts
15.5: Average field size in Rasmussen's 28 Indy Lights starts
39.9: Average number of IndyCar starts for the last 20 Indy Lights champions
What does a championship season look like for him?
In the last four seasons, all of which did not have double points in the season finale, and last season did not have double points for the Indianapolis 500, the average points total for the champion has been 575.5 points.
For Rasmussen to reach that total over 12 starts, he will have to average 47.958 points per start. Essentially, Rasmussen would have to win every one of his starts to win the championship. I think if he started hot and won the first five races to open the season, which would include the Indianapolis 500. ECR would have a re-think and have Rasmussen in the car full-time to ease his championship chance.
It is worth pondering how good would Rasmussen have to be to start his season for ECR to call an audible and keep him full-time.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering Marcus Armstrong won Rookie of the Year last year with a near-identical schedule, it is possible, but it is not likely as the 2024 rookie class includes Linus Lundqvist. Second best among the rookies is possible for Rasmussen, but it will be difficult to manage.
Any top ten finishes would be appreciated, but the goal should be three or four top ten results. That is a quarter to a third of his results. It would be a massive improvement on where this car was the prior two seasons. With enough good results, he could challenge for top twenty in the championship, but that will likely require him being close to flawless over his 12 starts.
It is ECR. Rasmussen will have off days, whether he likes it or not. There will be a day or two where he makes a mistake. If he is ahead of any of the full-time rookies it will be a good season.
Ed Carpenter - #20 GuyCare Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
14.0555: Average finish in 54 starts since the start of the 2014 season
14.4: Average championship finish in oval points since the 2014 season
11: Consecutive starts without a top ten finish, Carpenter's longest drought since the final three races of 2004 and the first eight races of 2005.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Running only the oval races is not going to win Carpenter the drivers' championship, but what must Carpenter do to have the #20 Chevrolet win the entrants' championship? The best the #20 Chevrolet has finished in the entrants' championship was eighth in 2014, the first year of the experiment. The best Carpenter has finished in oval points since 2014 is sixth.
Sixth obviously isn't going to be good enough.
It will likely require the best season of Carpenter's career. At least two victories, at least four podium finishes and every finish in the top five. If Carpenter can score 238 points in his six starts, he would need Rasmussen to average around 28.125 points per race, which would be right around a sixth-place finish. That is likely asking too much for Rasmussen to accomplish.
What is a feasible number for Rasmussen to achieve? It pays 19 points for 11th. That isn't great, but more practical than the Dane finishing sixth every start. Eleven times finishing 11th with no bonus points would net Rasmussen 209 points. If Carpenter was to win all six of his starts with the maximum points, including the extra bonus points for Indianapolis 500 qualifying, combined with Rasmussen's 209 points, the #20 Chevrolet would have 544 points. That could be enough to win the entrants' championship. It could also finish just short. It would likely put the #20 Chevrolet no worse than third.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
When we arrive at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in May, we will be pushing three years since Ed Carpenter's most recent top ten finish. In the years he does well, he is sixth or seventh in oval points. No seriously, that is where he finishes, sixth in 2014, 2018-19 and seventh in 2021.
As for the other six years, 19th (2015), 21st (2016), 11th (2017), 23rd (2020), 20th (2022), and 25th (2023).
You cannot sugarcoat any of those years as good (ok, maybe 2017). For a guy that is pegged as an oval ringer, he is either feast or famine, and it is usually a devastating famine. I don't see Carpenter ending up with three top ten finishes and a top five mixed in there. The struggle is going to continue to get top ten finishes.
He is terrible at Iowa. He is even more dreadful at Gateway where he has an average finish of 18th, and he has finished 20th or worse in six of eight starts, including in five consecutive races. His average finish at Milwaukee is 12.636 and he has never finished in the top five there. Five of the six oval races take place at those tracks.
If Carpenter is lucky, he is in the top fifteen in oval points. Maybe he has one great oval race that boosts his numbers, but that's the only hope.
Rinus VeeKay - #21 RiskOn International Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
14.706: Average finishing position in 2023, the worst of his IndyCar career
15.353: Average starting position in 2023, the worst of his IndyCar career
15: Races finished in 2023, the most of his IndyCar career
What does a championship season look like for him?
VeeKay repeating the first seven races of his 2021 season, a victory, two podium finishes, six top ten finishes, but instead of falling off the map as he does every season when we enter the summer, VeeKay does not drop off.
He does pick up more top five finishes as we get into July. Iowa is a big weekend as ECR comes out strong, VeeKay wins one of the races and finishes in the top five in the other, and he leaves with the most points scored from the weekend.
After a respectable Toronto, the team does not fall off due to the Olympic break. VeeKay is on the podium in all three races between Gateway and Milwaukee, using the ovals to his favor, and at least one of those is a victory. He caps off the season on the podium and that is enough to win the championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
The previous four seasons tells us what to expect: 12th or 14th. I guess 13th is in play as well.
VeeKay has shown speed every year at Indianapolis. He doesn't quite close out the races. Some of that is on him. He has made some bad mistakes at Indianapolis. If he can avoid that one mistake, it should allow him to be in contention come the closing laps. But problems exist away from the Speedway.
He hasn't had a top ten finish on a street course since he was sixth at St. Petersburg in 2022. He has never had a top ten finish at Laguna Seca, Nashville, Toronto, Road America and Long Beach. He hasn't had a top ten finish at Gateway since his rookie season in 2020. His average finish in six Iowa starts is 15.8333.
VeeKay doesn't have a top ten finish in a third of the tracks on the schedule and at seven of the tracks, he has a combined three top ten finishes.
That isn't good. VeeKay has also been in IndyCar for four years. This isn't one or two bad years thing. This is a pattern.
We shouldn't think he can get eight to ten top ten finishes because we know that isn't realistic based on the form he has shown. Adding Milwaukee likely isn't advantageous for VeeKay. It will likely be another place where he will struggle.
At some point, you no longer are mediocre. At some point, it will be worse. This is setting up to be the toughest season yet for ECR.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
