Thursday, January 4, 2024

2024 Supercross Season Preview

It does not take long for the first motorsports season of the New Year to come along, as the Supercross season is ready to get underway less than a week into 2024. This marks the second season of the SuperMotocross Championship, a combination of the 17-round Supercross season and the 11-round Motocross season, culminating in a three-race playoff to determine the SuperMotocross champion.

The Supercross season brings an immense amount of excitement. New riders are only making the series stronger as a number of other riders are returning from injuries. Riders have changed teams, including the defending champion.

Schedule
The 17-round season begins with a four-week California residency, starting in Anaheim for the traditional season opener on January 6. A week later, the series heads up to San Francisco for the first trip to the Golden Gate City since 2010. On January 20, Supercross heads down to San Diego before closing January with the second Anaheim date, the first Triple Crown event of the season.

February begins indoors with a trip to Detroit on February 3. Supercross heads back west, this time to Glendale, Arizona on February 10, the final round before an off-week. 

The lone Texas round this season will be in Arlington on February 24, one week prior to Daytona Bike Week. The midpoint of the season will be a new venue and city for Supercross. On March 9, Supercross visits Birmingham, Alabama for the first time. It is the first Supercross event in Alabama since a round was held at Talladega Superspeedway in 1984. 

The second Triple Crown race will be in Indianapolis on March 16 before heading to Seattle the following week. After one year away, St. Louis returns and hosts a round on March 30, the final Triple Crown event. 

There will be a one-week break before Foxborough on April 13 with Nashville following on April 20. For the first time since 1980, Philadelphia is on the Supercross schedule and the City of Brotherly Love will host the series on April 27. The Rocky Mountains close out the 2024 season. Denver will be on May 4 with the Salt Lake City season finale on May 11.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Chase Sexton: #1 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2023: Sexton won the 2023 Supercross championship with six victories, including three consecutive to close out the season. Sexton finished with 372 points and he stood on the podium 13 times. Despite missing three rounds in the Motocross season, Sexton was fourth in the championship with 15 podium finishes in 16 starts.
What to expect in 2024: Fortune may have played its hand a little more into Sexton's title last year than most others, but that does not negate the good season he was having up to that point. He did have a bit of an issue staying on the bike, especially while running at the front. Sexton should still have competitive races, but he will not dictate whether or not the championship stays with him.

Aaron Plessinger: #7 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2023: Plessinger missed three Supercross races, but he had two podium results, including a second in the Salt Lake City season finale, putting him seventh in the championship on 236 points. In Motocross, he was third in the championship with five podium finishes and 19 top five finishes from 22 starts.
What to expect in 2024: A typical season with a few good results but other races where he is not really in the picture. Plessinger will find it tough to beat Sexton let alone the rest of the grid. If everyone stays healthy, he will be fighting just to remain in the top ten of the championship.

Team Honda HRC
Jett Lawrence: #18 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: Lawrence was the 2023 250cc Supercross West champion with six victories and finishing on the podium in all nine races. He moved to the 450cc class for the Motocross season and he had a perfect season, winning all 22 races. To cap off the season, Lawrence claimed the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship.
What to expect in 2024: A championship push is the bare minimum for Lawrence. He has already shown his might in the 450cc class. The SuperMotocross playoff races were effectively Supercross events. It is easy to say the championship will go through him, but Lawrence has yet to race against Eli Tomac in 450cc competition. Lawrence will win races, but after a stellar second half of 2023, things might not be as easy at the start of 2024.

Hunter Lawrence: #96 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: With seven victories from ten races, Lawrence won the 250cc Supercross East championship. In the 250cc Motocross season, he won seven times and stood on the podium 16 times to take the championship by 20 points over Justin Cooper.
What to expect in 2024: While his brother Jett will get most of the attention, Hunter Lawrence should string together some good results. He definitely has the ability to win on his own, but he will more likely be competing to break into the top five in the championship than for the title.

Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing
Cooper Webb: #2 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: A concussion suffered in Nashville ended Webb's season three races early. He won twice, finished on the podium nine times and he was in the top five in all 14 races prior to his concussion. In the Motocross season, he had three podium finishes and finished no worse than sixth in the first four rounds, but left KTM midseason.
What to expect in 2024: Changing teams and joining the team with one of the best riders in series history will not make it easy for Webb. He had a great season going last year before his concussion. Webb will not be absent often at the front, but I do wonder if this is the season we see some regression.

Eli Tomac: #3 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: Tomac led the Supercross championship entering the penultimate round in Denver. In the Denver main event, Tomac suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon about three minutes into the race. This knocked him out of the race and out of the season finale, allowing Sexton to take the title unchallenged. Tomac had six victories and ten podium finishes prior to the injury.  
What to expect in 2024: It is hard to tell. Tomac has been out for nearly a year after his Achilles injury. There is no guarantee his fitness will be at the highest level. We know he can win races, but as a rider who has been eyeing retirement, this could be the blow that takes him out of the picture for race victories and championships. A stretch of hardship would not be a surprise, but neither would Tomac returning and picking up right where he left off.

Justin Cooper: #32 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: Cooper ran five rounds in the 450cc class in Supercross last year with his focus being on the 250cc Motocross season. He had finishes of seventh, seventh, tenth, ninth and sixth in his first taste of the 450cc class. In the Motocross season, Cooper ended up second in he 250-class with four victories, 12 podium finishes and 18 top five finishes.
What to expect in 2024: It doesn't feel like Cooper will be able to pick up the slack if either or both Webb and/or Tomac is off their game. Cooper can certainly score good results and gobs of points. It could be enough to sneak on the podium a few times, but regular top five finishes would be a great season for him.

Progressive Insurance ECSTAR Suzuki
Ken Roczen: #94 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: Roczen picked up Suzuki's first Supercross victory since 2016 when he won at Indianapolis. He had six podium finishes, four of which occurred in the final five races, and he was fourth in the championship. Roczen won the FIM World Supercross championship. 
What to expect in 2024: Roczen was good in 2023, and it feels like good is his highest level. On the right night, he can win a main event, but those nights seldom come around at this stage in his career. With the depth of this field, if riders stay healthy, it will be a challenge for Roczen to crack the top five in the championship. We will see some flashy nights, but they will not be regular occurrences. 

Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull/Gas Gas Factory Racing
Justin Barcia: #51 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2023: Barcia got on a heater in the second half of the season. After one podium finish in the first eight races, he had five podium finishes in the next six events, including a victory at the Meadowlands with his worst finish being fourth. However, his season ended early after an accident at Nashville breaking his right collarbone and two ribs. Barcia returned for the final three Motocross rounds where he had three top five finishes in six starts.
What to expect in 2024: Not much more than what we have seen from Barcia previously. There will be the stretch where he looks impressive, but a longer spell where he is rather average. Considering the addition of the Lawrence brothers to the series, I expect Barcia to take a dip in the championship.

Jorge Prado: #111 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2023: The Spaniard Prado won the Motocross World Championship with 14 victories from 38 starts. He was classified on the round podium in 16 of 19 rounds as he had an average round finish of third. Prado also won the MX2 championship in 2018 and 2019.  
What to expect in 2024: Prado is only scheduled to run the first three rounds of the season ahead of the MXGP season starting on March 10. This will be new for Prado. The most recent example we have of someone coming from the world championship and running an AMA event was Tim Gajser running the Monster Energy Cup in 2019. Gajser went seventh, fourth and fourth in that event and finished fifth overall. Prado could be on the periphery of the podium in his cameo appearance, but he has what it takes to steal the show. It is not unheard of. Sébastien Tortelli won the 1998 season opener in a cameo appearance just before his world championship season. 

Monster Energy Kawasaki
Adam Cianciarulo: #9 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2023: Cianciarulo had one podium finish and two top five finishes, both of which came in the final two races of the Supercross season. He missed three races and finished ninth in the championship. He was fifth in the Motocross championship with one podium finish. 
What to expect in 2024: Cianciarulo is the career that could have been. Four years ago, he looked prime to take the 450cc class by storm only for injuries to derail his career. It also does not help that Kawasaki is coming off a winless season. He should finish in the top ten of the championship and maybe he gets on the podium a few times.

Jason Anderson: #21 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2023: Anderson had two podium finishes, but missed the final two races in the Supercross season due to a vertebrae injury suffered in Nashville. He wound up sixth in the championship. Anderson missed the first four Motocross rounds, but he had two podium finishes and nine top five finishes in 14 starts and ended up ninth in that championship.
What to expect in 2024: A typical Jason Anderson season, many top five finishes, a fair number of podium results, maybe he sneaks out a victory, but he ends up somewhere between fifth and eighth in the championship.

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Husqvarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2023: Stewart only ran the first two races before a knee injury during a midweek practice session, ending his 2023 season before January even ended.
What to expect in 2024: After a promising 2022, it feels like 2023 was a missed opportunity for Stewart and the grid has only improved exponentially. There should be a few races where he will be in the mix, but victory will prove to be elusive. A back half of the top ten in the championship feels like where he will end up.

Christian Craig: #28 Husqavarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2023: Craig had seven consecutive top ten finishes after finishing outside the top ten in the first four Supercross races, but he missed the final six races of the season after dislocating his hip and right elbow while breaking his arm in practice in Glendale.
What to expect in 2024: Mostly forgettable finishes but a few top ten results as well as Craig falls short of the top ten in the championship.

Phoenix Racing Honda
Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: Ferrandis had finishes of fourth, sixth and fifth to open the 2023 Supercross season, but an accident in Houston left him with a concussion and knocked him out for the season. Ferrandis returned for the full Motocross season, where he was second to Jett Lawrence, 151 points back. Ferrandis had 16 podium finishes in 22 races.
What to expect in 2024: Some competitive races and on the right night a victory could go Ferrandis' way, but he could find himself frequently in that solid middle of the pack with Barcia, Anderson and Plessinger as those riders scrap for sixth in the championship.

Twisted Tea/H.E.P. Motorsports Suzuki Racing Team
Kyle Chisholm: #11 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: Chisholm had two top ten finishes, but he failed to qualify for two races and ended up 15th in the Supercross championship.
What to expect in 2024: A few top ten finishes at best, but ultimately not really mentioned much.

Shane McElrath: #12 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: After failing to qualify for the 2023 Supercross season opener, McElrath ran the final 16 races with all three of his top ten finishes coming in the final four events, putting him 11th in the championship.
What to expect in 2024: Slightly better than his teammate Chisholm, but nothing earth-shattering when it comes to results. 

The first round of the 2024 AMA Supercross season from Anaheim will be at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on USA and Peacock.