It might not have been the planned location for the 2024 MotoGP season finale, but the two-wheel world championship ended on its scheduled date last Sunday in Barcelona, and it marked the end of the motorcycle racing season. It was a good year for first-time champions and European manufacturers. A few notable competitors are calling it time on their careers. A few others are getting ready to go once again in 2025. The winter is not long, and testing has already begun for next year.
Before we get there, we should look back on predictions made for a few of these championships, checking to see how they turned out.
MotoGP
1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix
Correct!
Last season, no rider won consecutive races. It was the first time there was no consecutive race winner since the inaugural six-race season in 1949.
This year, there were exactly three occasions where a rider won consecutive grand prix.
Francesco Bagnaia had a four-race winning streak with victories in Catalunya, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.
Marc Márquez would win consecutive races at Arágon and Misano.
It was getting dicey at the end of the season, but then Bagnaia won in Thailand and Malaysia. That was the third occasion and the victory in the Barcelona finale to cap off his season with three consecutive victories was just a cherry on top.
2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship
Correct!
Márquez was third in the championship, and you would think third would have been great, but Márquez nearly fell short in this prediction.
Due to Ducati's dominance, it took the top four spots in the 2024 championship. Márquez was third-best among the Ducati riders, exactly within where he needed to be in this prediction. Except Márquez was only six points ahead of Ducati factory rider Enea Bastiannini! Márquez was outside the top ten in three of the final six races, keeping Bastiannini in touching distance.
Márquez did enough to get there but if you told me Márquez would finish third in the championship, I would have guessed he achieved this prediction with comfort. It was anything but that during the final weekend from Barcelona.
3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified
Wrong!
Last season, there were six races where fewer than 15 riders took the checkered flag, meaning not every points position was paid out. This year, 19 races saw all 15 points paying spots awarded. That would have been great in almost every other MotoGP season... except this one.
There was one race where fewer than 15 riders finished. In Indonesia, only 12 riders took the checkered flag. It was the 15th race of the season. We were so close. Damn!
4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019
Correct!
Acosta had to finish at least eighth in the championship for this prediction to be correct. Acosta ended up sixth on 215 points, 42 points to the good from what he needed to be and only two points behind Brad Binder in fifth.
Acosta started the season with two podium finishes in the first three races. He had some rough days, but he did have six podium finishes this season. He was in the top five in seven races. At Motegi, he started on pole position, and he won two of the first three sprint races this season, and he also picked up fastest lap on debut.
Sixth in the championship is the best championship result for a rookie since Fabio Quartararo in 2019.
5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season
Wrong!
Very wrong. Yamaha and Honda went in the wrong direction. They combined for five podium finishes last year. They combined for zero podium finishes this year. No Japanese bike finished in the top five this season. The best finis was sixth in Malaysia with Fabio Quartararo on his Yamaha. Quartararo was 13th in the championship, the best rider on a Japanese bike.
I don't know how to paint a more bleak picture than this prediction.
6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second
Correct!
Entering 2024, Moto2 had gone 29 consecutive races without a race being decided by less than a tenth of a second.
How did the 2024 season begin?
Alonso López won the season opener in Qatar by 0.055 seconds over Barry Batlus.
Boom! One race and it was achieved.
There were three other races with a margin of victory under a tenth of a second.
Joe Roberts won in Mugello by 0.067 seconds over Manuel González.
Celestino Vietti won the second Misano race by 0.029 seconds over Arón Canet.
Canet won the Barcelona finale by 0.091 seconds over González.
We went about a season-and-a-half with no races decided by less than a tenth of a second. We had four this season alone.
I say we made up for lost time and then some.
7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races
Wrong!
Leopard Racing won once with rookie Ángel Piqueras winning the San Marino and Rimini Riviera Grand Prix from Misano, but that was it for the team that has won at least four races in six of the previous nine seasons.
I don't think anyone saw David Alonso winning 14 of 20 races. That had a role in a lack of Leopard victories.
Piqueras was the last rider not named David Alonso to win this season. Piqueras was second to Alonso in the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix from Misano, the start of Alonso's seven-race winning streak to end the season. That was Piqueras' only runner-up finish. He had two third-place finishes.
His teammate Adrián Fernández had three podium finishes all season, second in Indonesia before a pair of thirds in Japan and Australia.
8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium
Correct!
There was one race all MotoE season with an all-Spanish podium, and it was smack-dab in the middle of the season, the first race of the Dutch TT weekend from Assen, the ninth of 16 races. But it wasn't an all-Spanish podium originally.
Héctor Garzó won the race, his first victory of the season, but Italian Alessandro Zaccone was second. However, Zaccone was disqualified due to a tire pressure infringement. This promoted Spaniard Oscar Gutiérrez up to second, and Spaniard Jordi Torres went from fourth to third. It is the first all-Spanish podium in MotoE history.
That is one way to get a prediction correct.
World Superbike
9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.
Wrong!
The hilarious thing about this prediction is that despite Rea's struggles on the Yamaha in his first season with the make, he did get on the podium.
The problem is he only got on the podium once, and where did he finish?
Third, of course! Third in the SuperPole race from Donington Park!
It was a rough season and Yamaha declined and Rea was the third-best Yamaha rider. He also missed five races due to injury, but Rea ended up 13th in the championship and he did not win a race in a World Superbike season for the first time since 2008 when he only ran the final round as a wild card entry after taking second in the World Supersport championship.
10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024
Correct!
And not only did we get two riders, but we had three riders do it in 2024.
The first was in the opening round. We were halfway to this prediction being correct after one round. Alex Lowes won the SuperPole race and race two from Phillip Island on his Kawasaki.
We had to wait a little bit longer for the next one. It did not help that Toprak Razgatlioglu won 13 consecutive races and 15 of the next 18 races after Phillip Island. If it wasn't for Razgatlioglu's injury in practice from Magny-Cours, we might not have seen a second different rider who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 do so in 2024.
With Razgatlioglu out, Andrea Locatelli won the first race, but Nicolò Bulega won the SuperPole race and race two in France.
There you have it, prediction met! But there is more!
After Magny-Cours, World Superbike visited the Cremona Circuit in Italy for the first time. Razgatlioglu was still recovering from the back injury suffered two weeks prior in France. Danilo Petrucci went on to sweep the round in his home country.
Bulega would go on to win consecutive races again in the season finale from Jerez, but three different riders won consecutive races after only Razgatlioglu and Álvaro Bautista (who did win consecutive races in 2024 at Aragón) were the only two riders with consecutive victories last season.
At least that kept it interesting.
Supercross/Motocross
11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds
Uh... technically, wrong!
When this predictions were made, I stated any absence due to injury would not count. Lawrence injured his thumb in the middle of the Motocross season and he did not run the final six rounds of the season.
So those don't count. What about the 17 Supercross races and the first five rounds of the Motocross season?
In Supercross, Lawrence's longest winless streak was three races on two occasions. He won eight of 17 races and claimed the championship relatively comfortably over Cooper Webb.
In Motocross, Lawrence swept the first two races of the season opener from Fox Raceway. Then Chase Sexton swept the Hangtown races. Hunter Lawrence won the first race from Thunder Valley, but then Jett won four consecutive races until he was second in the second race from Southwick.
Then he injured his thumb and his season was over.
The longest Jett Lawrence went without a victory in 2024 was three races.
12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds
Wrong!
Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combined to win three rounds.
It started with an unexpected victory for Aaron Plessinger at San Diego. It would be one of three podium finishes for Plessinger, and his season ended five races early after suffering an injury. He was 11th in the championship.
Ken Roczen won in Glendale, and he had a good season going. Roczen had three podium finishes through the first six races. He had six podium finishes in 13 races. Then he was injured in Nashville and that ended his season early, knocking him down to seventh in the championship.
Then there was Eli Tomac. It was not a strong season for Tomac, but he had some good runs. His only victory was the Triple Crown weekend in St. Louis. However, a thumb injury sidelined Tomac for the finale at Salt Lake City, and subsequently the first nine Motocross weekends. This left him fourth in the final championship standings.
It was closer, but how close was it?
Tomac had the best ride in Arlington. After a fall on lap two, he was 16th, nearly 13 seconds off the lead. He ended up finishing second, three seconds behind Cooper Webb. It was one of five runner-up finishes Tomac had this season.
Jason Anderson had a pair of runner-up results, behind Jett Lawrence in the Anaheim season opener and behind Roczen at Glendale. Obviously, trading Andersen for Roczen would mean we still would have had only three victories for riders outside the top three.
Roczen was second to Lawrence at Indianapolis, so that could have been the fourth victory we needed.
Hunter Lawrence was second to his brother Jett at Denver. Justin Cooper was second in the season finale in Salt Lake City to Chase Sexton.
There were plenty of close calls, but close was not good enough here.
Six-for-12. Better than last year. Not great. Not bad. Middle of the road. Some were close, but we already established good is not good enough. It could be worse though. Hopefully it is better in 2025.
