Thursday, December 11, 2025

2025 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

The circus is over. Formula One wrapped up its world tour this past weekend in Abu Dhabi, and with Formula One somehow being the last major series running at the end of the year, it is the final set of predictions we must revisit before we start making 2026 predictions in a little over a week or so. 

For a season that saw a first-time champion and a three-way title fight to the very last lap, how did things play out compared to expectations from nearly a year ago?

1. None of the top five championship finishers in 2024 finish in the same position in 2025
Correct!

In 2024, the top five were Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri and Carlos Sainz, Jr.

In 2025, the top five were Norris, Verstappen, Piastri, George Russell and Leclerc.

These drivers went +1, -1, +1, +2, and -2 from one year to the next. Sainz, Jr. dropped four spots in his first year with Williams after his final year with Ferrari, which was expected. 

We went into this season expecting change, and we got it, but Verstappen made a great effort to maintain the top spot. He was three points away from taking the title and then obliterating this prediction.

2. Max Verstappen has fewer total podium finishes but he will have a stretch with three consecutive podium finishes
Incorrect!

Verstappen had more podium finishes than last year!

Through the first 14 races, the Dutchman had five podium finishes. He had not finished on the podium in consecutive races, and he went into the summer break with no podium result in three races. He was on pace for 8.5 podium finishes this season, which could have been eight or maybe Verstappen would have caught a break and finished with nine. Either way, it was fewer than the 14 podium finishes he scored in 2024.

Then Verstappen ended with ten consecutive podium finishes to close out the season, surprising his 2024 total. That is outstanding. 

3. Lando Norris will have consecutive finishes outside the points
Incorrect!

In 24 races, Norris scored points in 21 of them. In the three races where he did not score, he had contact with Oscar Piastri in the closing laps of the Canadian Grand Prix, he suffered a mechanical failure eight laps from the finish in the Dutch Grand Prix, and then he was disqualified from the Las Vegas Grand Prix for excessive skid block wear.

Those were the tenth, 15th and 22nd races of the season. None of those races occurred consecutively. Heck, only once did Norris finish off the podium in consecutive races, and that was the disqualification from Las Vegas and fourth at Qatar.

4. Lewis Hamilton wins at least four pole positions
Incorrect!

Hamilton's best starting position all season was third in Mexico City. He started outside the top 15 on four occasions this season. What we thought was going to be a special partnership definitely turned out to be something memorable, but for all the wrong reasons, as Ferrari regressed and Hamilton had his worst season of his Formula One career.

Forget the pole positions, Hamilton didn't even get on a podium. He had at least five podium finishes in his each of his first 18 seasons. He was sixth in the championship, which all things considered is not a horrible season, but he was only six points away from finishing seventh, which would have been a new career-low for the Brit. 

And it doesn't feel like there is any belief things will be better in 2026. 

5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli scores the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2013
Correct!

It is correct, but it is because Antonelli scored the fewest points for a Mercedes driver since 2012, as the Italian had 150 points, the fewest since 2012 when Nico Rosberg scored 93 points and Michael Schumacher had 49 points.

Despite the lack of production relative to the last decade-plus at Mercedes, Antonelli had an impressive season. He was on the podium twice, and was second in Brazil. He was also second in the sprint race from Interlagos. he scored fastest lap in his third career start at Suzuka along with two more fastest laps later in the season at Spa-Francorchamps and Austin. He did have a rough spring-into-summer where he was third in Canada but that was sandwiched between six results outside the points, including three retirements, but Antonelli made good strides over the course of the season. 

6. Williams will have a top six finish on the road in a race that does not end prematurely
Correct!

This was clinched in the first race of the season, as Alexander Albon, in the changing conditions on the streets of Albert Park, ended up finishing fifth from sixth on the grid in Australia. 

Boom! One race and done. However, Williams had seven top six finishes this year, and six of those came on the road with races that went the distance. 

Albon had another pair of fifth-place finishes in Miami and Imola. He would then be fifth at Zandvoort.

Two races later, Carlos Sainz, Jr. scored a podium finish with a third in Baku. Sainz, Jr. was elevated to fifth at Las Vegas after both McLarens were disqualified, but in the next race, the Spaniard was third in Qatar with no post-race penalties for others helping his cause.

7. Haas scores its second most points in team history
Correct!

Haas scored 79 points, which surpassed 2024's 58 points for the second-most in the team's history. It was only 14 points off the team's high-water mark of 93 points from the 2018 season. 

Oliver Bearman was tremendous this season, and he led the way for Haas in his rookie season with 41 points, including a five-race stretch from Singapore to Las Vegas where he finished in the points. This included Bearman taking fourth in Mexico City.

Esteban Ocon started well. Ocon was fifth in Shanghai, the second race of the season, and that would be his best finish of the season. He scored points in nine races, but the only time he scored in consecutive races was a ninth in Canada and a tenth in Austria.

8. Fernando Alonso says something that makes Lawrence Stroll respond and it is a headline
Incorrect!

Things played out very calmly at Aston Martin though Alonso dropped a place in the championship and scored 14 fewer points than the year before. The Spaniard never spouted off any displeasure that required a response from the big boss. 

Which leads me to believe there is some faith in the Aston Martin camp that it was willing to take a step back this year for something greater next year. With Adrian Newey at the helm ahead of a new regulation set about to be introduced, perhaps Alonso has some belief he is about to get one of the best cars on the grid, and all he had to do in 2025 was keep his comments to himself.

9. The team formerly known as Toro Rosso will feature three drivers
Correct! 

This was almost a given before the season started. There was no way Red Bull was going to avoid playing musical chairs. I think they played it much sooner than we expected. Liam Lawson had two races with Red Bull Racing before he was moved to the team formality known as Toro Rosso with Yuki Tsunoda leaving the Italian team to join the Austrian outfit. 

How did things go after that? Lawson scored 38 points in his 22 races with the Red Bull's B-Team while Tsunoda contributed 30 points to the team that ended up third in the World Constructors' Championship.

10. Jack Doohan will have at least six finishes between eighth and tenth
Incorrect!

Doohan got six races total before he was tossed aside. He retired from Australia, then went 13th, 15th, 14th, 17th over the next four races before retiring at Miami and then being sidelined at Alpine for Franco Colapinto. 

In hindsight, it is hard to believe Doohan would have had six points-scoring finishes. Pierre Gasly had five finishes in the points all season for Alpine. Gasly was sixth at Silverstone, so that is a positive. Colapinto scored zero points. He was 11th at Zandvoort. That was the closest the Argentine got to scoring in 2025. 

11. Both Sauber drivers will score at least ten points
Correct!

Nico Hülkenberg scored 51 points with 15 of those points coming from his memorable third-place finish in the British Grand Prix, Hülkenberg's first career Formula One podium in his 239th start. 

Gabriel Bortoleto scored 19 points in his rookie season with his first points coming in Austria, an eighth earning him four points. The Brazilian would pick up two more points in Belgium, and then he put himself over the top for this prediction when he was sixth in Hungary, earning him eight points! He would add four more points in Monza and another point in Mexico City. 

This left Sauber with 70 points, a considerable leap from the four points it had in 2024, and 70 points was Sauber's best season since 2012, when it had 126 points. 

Despite scoring 70 points, Sauber was still ninth in the constructors' championship, the fourth time in the last five seasons it has finished in one of the bottom two positions.

12. Michael Schumacher will move up to fourth all-time in winning percentage after the 2025 season
Incorrect!

This prediction was basically saying Max Verstappen would win six races or fewer in 2025. If Verstappen won six races of fewer, his career winning percentage would drop below Michael Schumacher's and Schumacher would move up to fourth all-time. 

However, despite having only won two of the first 15 races and being on pace for three victories the entire season, Verstappen won six of the final nine races. That gave him eight victories on the season, the most in Formula One, and it left Verstappen with a career winning percentage of 30.47%, still fourth all-time and better than Schumacher's 29.74%.

Six-for-12, 50% again. A pair of these were heading in the other direction before Max Verstappen went on a tear and nearly pulled out an unthinkable fifth consecutive championship. 

This was a fun season between McLaren's inter-team politics and Verstappen's charge. We didn't even mention Christian Horner's dismissal and Red Bull flourishing afterward, and by Red Bull I mean Verstappen because Tsunoda was still nowhere competitive as has been the case for multiple second drivers in that team. 

George Russell did win two races with Mercedes. Ferrari had its issues and that was deflating, but Hülkenberg's podium finish will standout. Williams got on the podium twice and was rather competitive. Even Isack Hadjar, who started the season spinning out on the formation lap in Australia, scored a third in the Dutch Grand Prix. We had three drivers this season score their first career podium finish when you include Antonelli. 

I don't know how things will play out next year the new regulations, but you have Audi joining. You have Cadillac forming a new team. Honda is moving to Aston Martin. Red Bull has brought Ford back into the series. It is at least looking good on paper.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: Emptying the Bucket

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Max Verstappen won the race, but Lando Norris won the World Drivers' Championship in Abu Dhabi. Oscar Piastri is numb. Lewis Hamilton did not get one podium finish this season after never having fewer than five in any of his previous seasons. Formula Two didn't have the cleanest finish to the season, but Jak Crawford did finish second in the championship behind Leonardo Fornaroli. Sting Ray Robb was confirmed to be returning to Juncos Hollinger Racing for 2026. Will Power is going to run the 24 Hours of Daytona. The courtroom has been busy. We are firmly into December, and there is a lot to say before the year ends.

Emptying the Bucket
We are at the end of the year, and this is the last musings before the New Year. With the end of the year, we are at point where there is little time and lots to say, but not everything is fully fleshed out, or it doesn't require a full report. Some items don't quite fit. 

However, with this being the end of 2025, I thought I would empty the bucket on thoughts, ideas, musings that didn't quite fit at some point in 2025. What we have here is a collection of thoughts that crossed my mind over 2025 and will see the light of day before the year comes to a close. 

Why was Ryan Truex the reserve driver?
This goes back to the Mexico City NASCAR race. Truex took over the #11 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing as Denny Hamlin missed the race due to the birth of his child. Truex got the call because he is the reserve driver for JGR, and he works in the simulator for the team. My question is why?

Truex is more than capable for the role, but the problem is Truex was not racing anywhere. His only race up to that point in 2025 was the Daytona season opener in NASCAR's second division. Why would any team have a reserve driver be someone who was not regularly competing? That driver should be race fit and ready to go. A simulator role is not enough preparation for a driver. If Truex is going to be a reserve, shouldn't Gibbs make sure he is competing and best prepared to be called in to run a Cup race?

This goes for any Cup team and any team in any series. I don't understand why a reserve driver would be doing nothing. In Formula One, that driver should be racing somewhere, whether it is Formula Two, sports cars, Super Formula, whatever that keeps a driver fresh. Standing at the back of the garage or only driving the simulator isn't enough. It would be best to make sure the reserve is at least competing somewhere.

IndyCar Didn't Lose Connor Zilisch
This comes up every now and then in IndyCar circles. 

Young American driver succeeding in NASCAR, IndyCar fan base starts crying about how IndyCar lost that driver. It was the case for Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, even Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman to an extent a generation go. Now it is Connor Zilisch's turn.

One problem... Zilisch was never IndyCar's nor was he on that path. 

Zilisch was racing Mazda MX-5 Cup when he started car racing. Name one IndyCar driver that started in Mazda MX-5 Cup. I will wait. Then Zilisch got an opportunity to run late models which turned into the NASCAR career that is starting to blossom. He is also a kid from the Charlotte, North Carolina-area. You know, NASCAR Country. 

Not every young American driver dreams of being in IndyCar but especially those who are never on the path. IndyCar isn't the premier series in this country. A lot of that comes down to money. You can make a healthy living being average in the NASCAR Cup Series, better than being a regular winner in IndyCar. That is a deciding factor for people. 

Zilisch is 19 years old and he is about to start raking in money. He has also had the support from day one. Trackhouse got behind him. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and JR Motorsports got behind him. IndyCar teams do not give that kind of support. You do not see a driver get two or three years in the ladder system and then another three or four years in the top series, all paid for, ever in IndyCar. You can prove your worth and still be forced to pay or teams will give up on you quickly. Look at how fast Sage Karam and Oliver Askew were cast aside, and both won in the ladder system.

The point is, Zilisch wasn't an IndyCar loss. If you are upset that the best talent we have seen in decades never was on the IndyCar path, that is one thing, but he was never heading that direction from his first time in a race car. 

Throwback Weekends are a Distraction
Every year we get to a point in the IndyCar season and someone suggests there should be a throwback weekend where all the teams run a livery that pays homage to a car from the past. NASCAR ran a similar weekend at Darlington for the last decade. 

It solves nothing. 

It is a pure play on nostalgia, a distraction from the current state of affairs. It is something to talk about for a week, maybe two if done right, but it is self-serving. More people are not going to be tuning in because Josef Newgarden is driving a car that looks like Al Unser's 1987 Indianapolis 500 winner or Scott Dixon is driving a car that looks like Alex Zanardi's Target cars or the McLarens look like the McLarens from the 1970s. 

A throwback weekend is self-serving.

Plus, everyone will get bored of it quickly. NASCAR's throwback weekend is there in name only. It moved to the spring Darlington race and maybe a quarter of the teams participate. No participates in the theme aspect, changing their attire to fit a time period. It is hard to buy in every year to a costume party. Once you get through three decades everyone gets bored, and we come to realize there isn't that much that we ogled over. There were two or three great things that are stuck in our minds, but that is about it.

If it happens, do it once to get it out of your system, but acknowledge it can only be a one-time thing.

MotoGP Sprint Points
If sprint races are half-distance races, I think only half the sprint races should count toward a riders' championship points total. If there are 22 races, only 11 sprint race results can count toward the championship. 

It makes the grand prix results matter more. You can only be bailed out with sprint results so often. 

I was thinking this after 2024 when you had Francesco Bagnaia win 11 of 20 races but was second in the championship by ten points and you had Jorge Martín finish on the podium in 16 of 20 sprint races while winning only three grand prix the entire season. Martín did have 16 podium finishes in grand prix, but he scored 43 points more than Bagnaia in sprint races.

Sprint races are fine, but if you want the grand prix results to matter, there should be a limit on how many sprint races count toward the championship. It caps how many points can come from sprint races. Win 11 sprint races, congratulations, you have 132 points from sprint races, but that is the most you can earn. The incentive would still be there to get the best result you can to take points away from fellow competitors in sprint races. You wouldn't see riders not trying during the sprint races. 

MotoGP has hit this patch with sprint races where they aren't standing out during a race weekend, and it is starting to feel excessive, especially if one rider is going to be dominating on Saturday and Sunday. It just puts the best further away from the rest of the field. Only counting half the sprint races toward the championship would at least limit the beat down.

NASCAR Overtime
This one stems a bit from the NASCAR finale, though I have been thinking this way even prior to that. If NASCAR is going to have it, there should be parameters that negates overtime. Not every football, basketball, hockey, lacrosse, soccer, whatever sport goes to overtime. or has the chance of going to overtime. Every NASCAR race has the potential of going to overtime no matter what happens during the race.

However, some drivers dominate a race, and that is clearly the best driver on the day. There should be criteria a driver can reach to negate any overtime. I am not sure what the marks should be, but if a driver leads the most laps or leads majority of the laps, that might need to be enough to negate an overtime should a caution come out in the closing laps with that driver leading. 

Overtime, arguably, was meant to prevent good races from being ruined due to a caution, but that doesn't mean every race. If a driver has a two-second lead with five laps to go, that wasn't going to be a good finish. That race is under control. It is over. If a caution comes out, no one is losing an exciting finish. If a gap to second is that big, maybe that should be enough to clinch a victory. 

Also, not every driver should be competing at overtime. The Nashville Cup race in 2024, which Joey Logano won while Zane Smith finished in the top five after spending most of the race outside the top twenty should never happen. The 25th-place runner at the scheduled should not finish in the top five due to overtime. There should be some incentive and protection for having a good race, and the end of the scheduled distance is a marker where you were either good or you weren't.

Overtime should be limited to the top ten drivers competing. One, it protects the drivers who had good races and keeps them from finishing worse than tenth. Two, it would allow overtime to be a reasonable finish and prevent these races where it takes 45 minutes to run two consecutive green flag laps, which do nothing to help viewership. You aren't going to have accident after accident with ten cars on track, nor would you have pile ups that require a red flag to clean up. Three, there should be a protection from pit stops. 

I don't think one final pit stop should determine the race. Once a race hits the scheduled distance, drivers should have to finish with the tires they have. No team should get the benefit of saving a set of tires in the pit lane. If you want to win the race, beat the driver who was leading the race straight-up. Pass them with what you got. And in that case, if you make it the scheduled distance on the fuel you have, you shouldn't lose due to fuel mileage. The top ten should come down pit lane, top off on fuel, and then rejoin in the positions they were in. 

This gets rid of strategy finishes in overtime and it makes every finish a true race to the finish with the leader not being put at a disadvantage. It actually gives the leader an incentive to be first, and we should want drivers wanting to be the leader. The leader should never be at a disadvantage. 

William Byron Would Have Raced Differently
At the NASCAR finale in Phoenix, William Byron had a tire failure while running in the top five with three laps remaining. At the end of the race, Kyle Larson was champion, and based off of the full season points aggregate, Larson would have also be champion based on that metric. The two systems produced the same champion, so that means everything was alright... right?

Except no, because entering Phoenix Byron would have had an 11-point lead over Larson based on the full season aggregate. If Byron had an 11-point lead, he would not have been racing the way he did at Phoenix, which led to the blown tire. 

As it played out, Byron wasn't leading the championship at the time of the tire failure, but trying to chase down Denny Hamlin, who was leading and in turn leading the championship. If Byron had an 11-point lead over Larson, he would not have been pushing to beat Hamlin, especially since Hamlin would have been 103 points behind Byron in seventh and would have been mathematically eliminated prior to the finale. 

Byron would have also scored stage points and he would have had 18 points after winning the first stage while finishing third in the other. Larson would have scored only 12 points. That means Byron's lead would effectively have been up to 17 points. 

Byron could let Larson ahead at that point. He would have had a 16-position cushion to play with. Byron could have taken it easy and instead of running in the top five, could have been fine running eighth or ninth. If he was driving that way, he likely doesn't lose a tire, he doesn't have an accident, and he likely would have done enough to win the championship. 

This is why we cannot just take the results as they play out in this system and say if there was a full-season aggregate the champion would have been this or that driver. Based on the points, Larson would have been champion, but if Byron had entered the finale with an 11-point lead over Larson instead of being equal with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell also contending for the championship, he would likely not have been in that exact same position that led to a flat tire. 

The Interlagos Obsession
This came to mind this weekend during the Formula One finale. 

Many were bemoaning another dud of a race from Yas Marina, and rightfully so. The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix has been on the calendar for nearly 20 years now, and Yas Marina has never produced a truly good race. That is with multiple regulations and rulesets. At some point, it is the racetrack that is the issue.

At the same time, there was that crowd saying essentially they would chew their arm off to have Interlagos return as the finale and calling it Interlagos' rightful place for the finale...

But is that true?

Interlagos didn't host a Formula One finale until 2004. It then was the finale from 2006 through 2008 and then returned to the finale spot from 2011 through 2013. That is only seven seasons with Interlagos hosting the finale. 

Is the desire for Interlagos to be the finale because of tradition or because it hosted the 2007 finale, where it was a three-driver fight and Kimi Räikkönen won the title entering third; it hosted the 2008 finale and the famous "Is that Glock?" moment with Felipe Massa being champion for about 30 seconds before Lewis Hamilton swept through; and it hosted the 2012 finale where Sebastian Vettel spun early and then had to fight back in changing conditions to defeat Fernando Alonso for the title? 

I think we have a collective that remembers three races and thinks that is how every Interlagos finale played out. The 2004 finale was a dead-rubber. The 2006 finale saw Fernando Alonso leading Michael Schumacher by ten points and the only way Schumacher could win the title was with a victory and Alonso failing to score a point. The 2011 race is the one where Sebastian Vettel had a gearbox issue and limbed to second while Mark Webber won. The 2013 race capped off Vettel's nine-race winning streak. 

The truth is Interlagos is more likely to produce a competitive and thrilling race than Abu Dhabi, but let's stop acting like we lost a tradition. Formula One had completed over 50 seasons before Interlagos ever had a finale. Adelaide hasn't been on the schedule in three decades and it has still hosted more finales than Interlagos. Mexico City has hosted more finales than Interlagos, and it last hosted the final race since 1970. 

I am tired of Abu Dhabi as well. I wish there was another venue that was hosting the final race. But stop acting like the finale not being at Interlagos is some travesty and rejection of tradition. It was never a tradition. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Verstappen and Norris, but did you know...

Arvid Lindblad (sprint) and Joshua Dürksen (feature) split the Formula Two races from Abu Dhabi.

Jake Dennis won the São Paulo ePrix.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Asian Le Mans Series opens with a pair of four-hour races from Sepang.




Thursday, December 4, 2025

2025 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

Sports car season is over. Sports car season is about to begin. Most series are over and are settled into the offseason. One series is about to start.

We revisit our sports car predictions for 2025 as the 2025-26 Asian Le Mans Series is about to begin. Over December 13-14, ALMS has a pair of four-hour races from Sepang, and the Sepang 12 Hours is this weekend, but none of those events will change any of the results for the predictions we made for the year 2025. All of these are set. 

FIA World Endurance Championships
1. The pole-sitter will be classified in at least seven of eight races
Correct!

After the pole-sitter retired from three of eight races in 2024, this season saw the pole-sitter finish every race in the 2025. In fact, five times did the pole-sitter finish on the podium this season after the pole-sitter finished only five of eight races total in 2024. Last season, the pole-sitter had only two podium finishes with only one victory. In 2025, the WEC pole-sitter won three races.

2. At least two manufacturers that did not win in LMGT3 in 2024 do win in 2025
Correct!

We were halfway there through the first race of the season as the #33 TF Sport Corvette of Jonny Edgar, Daniel Juncadella and Ben Keating won in Qatar after Corvette went winless in 2024. It would take a minute, but Lexus took victory in São Paulo with the #87 Akkodis ASP Team and José María López, Clemens Scmid and Razvan Umbrarescu, making that two new winners among manufacturers. 

But we aren't done yet! At the next round at Austin, United Autosports took victory in the #95 McLaren with Sean Geleal, Darren Leung and Marino Sato. That's three new manufacturers!

To add to it, TF Sport won again at Fuji, but this time with the #81 Corvette, and the #87 Akkodis ASP Team Lexus won again at Bahrain. In the final four races of 2025, each LMGT3 race had a winner that was a manufacturer that did not win in 2024. 

Porsche won twice (Imola and Le Mans). Ferrari won once (Spa-Francorchamps). BMW and Aston Martin went winless in 2025 after each won a race in 2024.

3. Each Cadillac entry will get a podium finish
Correct!

And it happened in the same race as Hertz Team Jota Cadillac went 1-2 at the 6 Hours of São Paulo. The #12 Cadillac of Alex Lynn, Norman Nato and Will Stevens took the victory ahead of the #38 Cadillac of Earl Bamber, Sébastien Bourdais and Jenson Button.

Outside of those finishes, Cadillac didn't finish on the podium in any other race this season. Cadillac was looking good at the season opener at Qatar... and then the two cars collided under safety car and took each other out of contention for a podium. The #12 Cadillac was fourth at Le Mans. The #38 Cadillac had four finishes outside the top ten in 2025. 

4. There will be at least two overall winners with a driver winning in his home country
Incorrect!

It only happened once. Ferrari won at Imola, and Antonio Giovinazzi and Alessandro Pier Guidi were home winners in the #51 Ferrari. Outside of that, we did not see another home winner. 

There were no Qatari, Brazilian, American or Bahraini drivers that competed in Hypercars this season. 

At Spa-Francorchamps, the best finishing Belgian was Laurens Vanthoor in ninth. Frenchman Kévin Estre was second at Le Mans. Kamui Kobayashi was the top Japanese driver at Fuji, finishing seventh. 

Other than at Le Mans, this wasn't really close to happening a second time.

IMSA
5. The overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races at some point
Incorrect!

After going winless in 2024 and having a 12-race winless streak dating back to 2023, the pole-sitter did finally win an IMSA race in 2025. It took five races as the #93 Meyer Shank Racing Acura of Nick Yelloly and Renger van der Zande won at Detroit. However, it was not followed with another pole-sitter victory. 

The pole-sitter would not win again until Indianapolis when the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac of Jack Aitken, Earl Bamber and Frederik Vesti finished first. This was also the penultimate race of the season, which meant the winner at Petit Le Mans had to start on pole position for this prediction to be correct.

The #60 Meyer Shank Racing Acura won pole position, but the entry finished fifth in the race. 

6. At least three LMP2 races feature a class winner with a Formula One-experienced driver
Incorrect!

Daytona started with a Formula One-experienced driver winning. Initially, Sébastien Bourdais won with Tower Motorsports, but Tower was disqualified for excessive wear to the skid block underneath the car. However, another Formula One-experienced driver was elevated to the race victory. That was Paul di Resta with United Autosports.

It wasn't di Resta's only victory, as he won at Watkins Glen with United. However, those were the only victories this season for Formula One-experienced drivers won in LMP2.

Sébastien Bourdais came close to victory at Sebring as Tower Motorsports was second. Pietro Fittipaldi ran a full season with Pratt Miller Motorsports, but Fittipaldi's best finish in class was sixth. 

The only other past F1 driver to run in LMP2 in 2025 was Felipe Massa, who only ran at the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports. Massa was second.

7. The top three in the GTD Pro Endurance Cup championship will all be full-time entries
Correct!

The #48 Paul Miller Racing BMW won the Endurance Cup championship in GTD Pro with the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW finishing second in the Endurance Cup, and the #77 AO Racing Porsche was third. 

All three of those teams were full-time teams. The #48 BMW was fourth in the overall championship with the #77 Porsche in fifth while the #1 BMW finished seventh. All three cars won races in 2025. The #48 BMW won at Watkins Glen and Road Atlanta. AO Racing won Sebring and Laguna Seca. The #1 BMW won at Road America.

8. Renger van der Zande's winning streak ends at eight consecutive seasons
Incorrect!

Van der Zande and co-driver Nick Yelloly won at Detroit, from pole position as you may have heard, and van der Zande has now won an IMSA race in the premier class in nine consecutive seasons. 

Van der Zande has actually won a race in all 12 seasons since the Grand-Am/American Le Mans Series merger. In those first three seasons, van der Zande ran in the Prototype Challenge class, and he won a race in each of those years, including winning overall at Lime Rock Park in a Prototype Challenge/GT race in 2016. Van der Zande was the PC champion in 2016 with Alex Popow and Starworks Motorsport. 

The #93 Acura was fifth in the GTP championship with additional podium finishes at Sebring and Road America. Each of those were third-place finishes. The #93 Acura did win three consecutive pole positions over Detroit, Watkins Glen and Road America.

European Le Mans Series
9. At least two different Americans win a race
Correct... kind of

I don't like a class inside of a class. In ELMS, there is the LMP2 class, but there is also the LMP2 Pro-Am class. LMP2 entries with a bonze-rated driver are placed in the LMP2 Pro-Am class. It is essentially the same class, only one of the drivers is seen as more amateur than others in those entries. 

Based on the ELMS structure, three American drivers won in 2025. P.J. Hyett and Dane Cameron were co-drivers in the #99 AO by TF Oreca, and they won at Imola with Louis Delétraz. Boom! Prediction correct right there, but to add insurance, Rodrigo Sales won in LMP2 Pro-Am with TDS Racing.

In LMP2 Pro-Am, three American drivers won a race. In LMP2, LMP3 and LMGT3, there were no American winners.

10. LMGT3 will have different British drivers win in consecutive races
Incorrect!

There were no British winners in LMGT3 in 2025. Since 2021, only three times has a British driver to win in the GT class in ELMS. Duncan Cameron won at Monza in 2021 with Spirit of Race. Sam De Haan won at Imola in 2022 with Oman Racing with TF Sport. In 2024, Cameron won at Circuit Paul Ricard with Spirit of Race.

Other
11. The closest finish in an Intercontinental GT Challenge race will be greater than four seconds 
Incorrect!

This prediction was looking good. 

At the Bathurst 12 Hour, the #32 Team WRT BMW won over the #46 Team WRT BMW by 10.244 seconds. 

The Nürburgring 24 Hour is a bit of a mess because the #911 Manthey EMA Porsche was first on the road, but received a one-minute and 40-second penalty for causing a collision during the race. This elevated the #99 Rowe Racing BMW to first-place overall, and the listed margin of victory was 1:17.810. Even if we got based on the margin of victory on the road, the #911 Porsche was more than four seconds ahead of the #99 BMW.

Grasser Racing Team won the 24 Hours of Spa by 8.703 seconds over the Rutronik Racing Porsche. Team WRT won the Suzuka 1000 km by 13.647 seconds over Absolute Racing. 

What happened in the final IGTC race, the Indianapolis 8 Hour?

Team WRT won by 0.805 seconds over Mercedes-AMG Team GMR.

Yep. So close. At least Indianapolis was a good finish.

12. Ben Barnicoat will win a proper class on at least three different continents in at least two different championships
Incorrect!

This one hurts because Ben Barnicoat was hurt for most of 2025. After a mountain biking accident in the middle of March, Barnicoat was sidelined until June. 

Prior to that biking accident, Barnicoat had raced only once in IMSA and once in WEC. He had also raced in four Asian Le Mans Series races, and he won the first race from the Dubai Autodrome in the #96 2 Seas Motorsport Mercedes-AMG on February 8. 

That was Barnicoat's only victory of the season. In IMSA, he ran seven races but his best finish with Vasser Sullivan Racing was fifth at Indianapolis. In WEC, he ran four races, but his best finish was the first race of the season, fourth at Qatar. 

I don't know how much the cycling accident affected this prediction, but it certainly did not help. 

Five-for-12. 

It wasn't even a strong 5-for-12. One of those is correct on a technicality (Thanks LMP2 Pro-Am). There were a few close ones. It always feels like there are few close ones. I hate to think I have to take driver's training programs into consideration when making predictions, but it might be good to keep in mind moving forward. More drivers should be swimmers. 


Monday, December 1, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: Which One-Time Indianapolis 500 Winner Deserves a Second the Most?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

McLaren has kept the championship alive into the Abu Dhabi finale, and it is a three-horse race as Max Verstappen won in Qatar, Oscar Piastri won the sprint race, and Lando Norris leads the World Drivers’ Championship by 12 points over Verstappen and 16 points over Piastri. Formula Two was back in competition after two months off. The Supercars championship decided the title with a playoff format for the first time, and it was not well received. The World Rally Championship went down to the final day, and it was a lively finale. It was a holiday weekend, and this has actually been on my mind for two weeks, but I am keeping it light. 

Which One-Time Indianapolis 500 Winner Deserves a Second the Most?
This question came to me when Ryan Hunter-Reay was on Trackside with Curt Cavin and Kevin Lee a few weeks ago when Hunter-Reay was speaking about his deal to drive for Arrow McLaren in next year’s Indianapolis 500. 

Hunter-Reay was possibly one clean pit stop away from pulling off an incredible Indianapolis 500 victory this past May with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing with a backup car that was literally pulled from the back of the D&R shop and only had about a lap-and-a-half of an installation run under it after sitting unused for years. It was stunning Hunter-Reay put himself that close to victory that not winning the race should not completely erase the story of his day and the resiliency of driver and team.

For Hunter-Reay, it was at least fourth time he had a shout at an Indianapolis 500 victory and it was not his day. He isn’t the first driver to have a number of close calls but not have it work out a second time. 

But where does Hunter-Reay rank among deserving a second Indianapolis 500 among the one-time winners? 

Let’s set the table. 

Fifty-five drivers have only one Indianapolis 500 victory to their name. We are only considering those 55. We are not considering drivers who never won it but had a case for at least one. We are not considering multi-time winners and whether or not they deserve a third, fourth, fifth or sixth. It is the 55 drivers with one victory to their name. 

The 55 drivers can be broken into a few different groups. 

Some drivers not only deserve a second but also a third and possibly a fourth. Some may deserve a second. Some are good with one, and for some, one victory is generous. There are also a few special cases. We are going to break down those drivers in such group, starting with those who should be thankful they had one Indianapolis 500 victory to their name before ending with the most deserving. 

One Victory is Generous
Joe Dawson won the 2nd Indianapolis 500 after Ralph DePalma broke down two laps from the finish nd with a five-lap lead. DePalma had led 196 of the first 198 laps. Dawson led the final two laps. He was fifth in 1911 and returned for one more start in 1914 where he only completed 45 laps.

Ralph DePalma had a two-lap lead in 1920 before his car stalled out with 14 laps remaining. Gaston Chevrolet came through and led the final 14 laps. DePalma didn’t even lead the most laps in this race, but it was Chevrolet who benefitted the most as attrition was a deciding factor.

Two drivers have won the Indianapolis 500 and never led a lap in the race. That would be the co-winner years, L.L. Corum in 1924 and Floyd Davis in 1941. Corum was taken out of the car while in third and Joe Boyer drove the car to victory. Davis had done 72 laps and was 12th when Mauri Rose took over. Both Corum and Davis contributed to the victories. I don’t think Davis would have done enough to pull off the victory in 1941. Corum may have been able to win in 1924 as Jimmy Murphy and Earl Cooper each had cut tires while leading. Cooper had a second cut tire as he was chasing Boyer.

Graham Hill was in the right place at the right time in 1966. Jackie Stewart broke down while leading with ten laps remaining. It was also a race where Jim Clark spun multiple times and Clark would finishing second, just over 40 seconds behind Hill. It was also a race where Lloyd Ruby led the most laps and a slow pit stop cost Ruby multiple laps. It is also the race where 11 cars were out of the race on the opening lap due to an accident. It was Hill’s lucky day.

One is Generous, but He Arguably Could Have Two
A.K.A the Marcus Ericsson zone. 

Ericsson is lucky to have one, and also maybe should have two. 

If Scott Dixon doesn’t speed entering the pit lane for his final pit stop in 2022, Marcus Ericsson is not winning that race. However, with how the 2023 race ended with Ericsson leading when the race was restarted with one lap remaining and seeing Josef Newgarden pass Ericsson entering the turn three on the final lap, he maybe should have one, if not two.

Ericsson benefitted from circumstances in 2022, and did not benefit from circumstances in 2023. The 2023 race was such a mess of a finish with the red flags and accidents, it is hard to feel too bad about how it ended. Someone was going to feel cheated. Ericsson exists in this special territory. 

The Goldilocks Zone - One is Just Right
This is a rather large group. It is actually the largest group. Most drivers are good with just one Indianapolis 500 victory. To be specific, 35 drivers.

Ray Harroun only ran one Indianapolis 500 and he won it. He’s good. 

Jules Goux is good on one. Goux led 139 laps in his Indianapolis 500 career, 138 of those were in his 1913 victory. 

René Thomas won in 1914 with 102 laps led. Thomas was second in 1920, but we have already covered the 1920 race. 

Dario Resta won the only Indianapolis 500 not scheduled for 500 miles. The 1916 race was only a 300-miler. Resta led 103 of 120 laps. He was second the year prior, but rightfully second. 

Jimmy Murphy was one of the best drivers ever at Indianapolis, but his 1922 victory is good enough for his career. He was fourth, 14th, first, third and third in his five Indianapolis 500 starts, but one is just right for him.

Joe Boyer won the 1924 as a relief driver and benefitting from two competitors having tire failures. But Boyer led 93 of the first 107 laps in 1920. Boyer got even for a race lost. 

Peter DePaolo dominated the 1925 race with 115 laps. He only had two other top ten finishes at Indianapolis. 

George Souders won as a rookie in 1927, and he was third in his only other start in 1928, but he was good on one. 

Ray Keech only made two “500” starts, fourth in 1928 and first in 1929. Keech lost his life in an accident at Altoona less than a month after his Indianapolis victory. 

Louis Schneider only led 39 laps at Indianapolis, all in his 1931 victory. He was outside the top ten in four of six starts. 

Fred Frame won in 1932 a year after finishing second. One is historically accurate for Frame. 

Bill Cummings won in 1934. He had two other top five finishes. 

Kelly Petillo’s victory in 1935 was his only top ten finish at Indianapolis. He led 102 laps in that race and only six more laps in his other eight Indianapolis starts. Those six laps all came in 1934.

Floyd Roberts only led in one Indianapolis 500, the one he won in 1938. He led 92 laps.

George Robson won in 1946 after being 23rd and 25th and never completing more than 67 laps in his first two starts.

Johnnie Parsons was second and first in his first two Indianapolis 500 starts. Parsons won a rain-shortened race in 1950, but he led 115 of 138 laps run. He only had one other top five finish in his final eight “500” starts.

Lee Wallard won the only “500” he was truly competitive in. He led 159 of 200 laps in 1951.

Troy Ruttman won in 1952 with 44 laps led. He had one other top ten finish in his 12 Indianapolis starts.

Bob Sweikert won in 1955 after Bill Vukovich’s fatal accident. Sweikert did lead 86 laps, but it was the only time he led an Indianapolis 500.

Pat Flaherty won in 1956, and he never finished better than tenth in any other Indianapolis start.

Sam Hanks is most remembered for winning in his final Indianapolis 500 start, but he only led four laps in his first 12 appearances in the race.

Jimmy Bryan was second in 1954 and third in 1957, but his victory in 1958 is just the right amount of success. 

Jim Rathmann did finish second in the Indianapolis 500 on three separate occasions before he won in 1960, but one is enough for Rathmann. 

Mark Donohue started fourth, fifth, second, third and third at Indianapolis in his career. He had finishes of seventh, second, 25th after the gearbox failed him while dominating the first quarter of the 1971 race before he won in 1972 and was 15th in 1973. You could make a case Donohue was fortunate to have won because he won in 1972 after Team Penske teammate Gary Bettenhausen broke down while leading, and Jerry Grant had to make a late pit stop for fuel, stopping in his teammate Bobby Unser’s pit box to get fuel. However, 1972 somewhat cancels out 1971.

Like Jim Rathmann, Tom Sneva had three runner-up finishes at Indianapolis before he won, but in none of those three races did Sneva lead more than 16 laps, and each of those races had a driver lead more than 100. After he won in 1983, Sneva’s best finish in his final eight “500” starts was 14th.

Bobby Rahal won in 1986, but only one other time did he lead more than 15 laps in the race. There really isn’t another year where you feel one got away from Rahal.

Jacques Villeneuve made three Indianapolis 500 starts. He went second, first and 14th in 2014 after 19 years away. He didn’t deserve 1994. He drove from two laps down in 1995. History represents Villeneuve accurately.

I was tempted to put Buddy Lazier in the generous group because of The Split, but Lazier won the race with a broken back. Give it to him.

I was also tempted to put Eddie Cheever in the same group, but Cheever did lead 76 laps from 17th on the grid, the most in the race, as he won in 1998.

You may think Kenny Bräck should be in the generous group because Bräck won after Robby Gordon had to pit for a splash a fuel before starting the final lap in 1999, but Gordon wasn’t the best driver that day. Bräck was with 66 laps led, the most in the race. 

It sucks that Gil de Ferran only made four Indianapolis 500 starts in his career. He thankfully won one of those as he was brilliant.

Buddy Rice may have only one top five finish at Indianapolis in six starts, but he won from pole position and led 91 of 180 laps completed before the rain came in. Rice deserved that victory in 2004.

Sam Hornish, Jr.’s track record at Indianapolis is not great, but he did win in 2006 in one of the most memorable finishes. He was a little fortunate to win in 2006, but considering he was a three-time champion at a time when the series was oval-dominant in the Indy Racing League, it would have felt more odd if Hornish, Jr, had never won one. 

One victory is good enough for Will Power. The only other close call was 2015 where he lost in a semi-close finish to Juan Pablo Montoya. Only once has Power led more than 23 laps at Indianapolis, and that was the year he won in 2018 with 59 laps led. Since that victory, he has led a combined ten laps in his last seven “500” starts. 

Simon Pagenaud won the 2019 race from pole position with 116 laps led. In his other 11 Indianapolis starts, Pagenaud had only one other top five finish. 

Technically, He Has Won Twice
A.K.A the Howdy Wilcox zone. 

Wilcox won the 1919 race with 98 laps led. Prior to that, he had led only six laps in his first six Indianapolis starts and his best finish was sixth. In his final four Indianapolis starts, Wilcox never completed more than 65 laps.

In his final Indianapolis 500 appearance in 1923, Wilcox led 11 of the first 60 before his engine failed while leading. However, Wilcox took over for Tommy Milton, who had burned hands that needed to be treated. Wilcox drove 48 laps in relief and led 41 of them. Milton returned to his car and drove the final 49 laps on his way to victory. 

Unfortunately, the history book only recognizes co-winners when a different driver takes the checkered flag from the driver who started the race. Wilcox is credited in the record book with the 41 laps led in Milton’s car, but he does not get credit for the victory. 

Though he should, as should a number of other drivers who took a spin behind the wheel of a winning Indianapolis 500 entry.  

A Good Case for a Second
This is where we get to the countdown because there are 13 drivers with respectable cases as for deserving a second victory. 

13. Danny Sullivan
Sullivan had the spin-and-win in 1985, but he had led 91 of the first 94 laps in 1988. A pit stop under caution shuffled Sullivan back to fourth and the cars ahead of him were Jim Crawford and his Team Penske teammates Rick Mears and Al Unser. However, Sullivan had a front wing issue that led to accident on lap 102. 

Sullivan only led the Indianapolis 500 three times in his career, 1985, 1987 and 1988. Mears cruised to victory with Sullivan out in 1988, leading the final 78 laps. It would have been difficult to beat Mears, but Sullivan had a great race going in 1988 and likely could have given Mears a challenge.

12. Álex Palou
This doesn’t feel a little knee-jerk, but the 2025 winner was leading in 2021 with three laps to go. In his sophomore Indianapolis 500, Palou led 35 laps. He lost to Hélio Castroneves making a bold move into turn one and then using traffic to stall out a challenge from Palou. If it was any of about 28 other drivers behind Palou in that race, I don’t think they could have pulled out what Castroneves did to win. 

11. Frank Lockhart
Lockhart only made two Indianapolis starts. As a rookie, he won in 1926 with 95 laps led. He went from 20th to fifth in the first five laps. The race was called due to rain at lap 160 but Lockhart had a two-lap lead at the time. In 1927, Lockhart qualified on pole position and he led 110 of the first 119 laps but retired on lap 120 when a connecting rod broke. Lockhart lost his life on April 25, 1928 in Daytona Beach, Florida in an accident attempting to set a land speed record.

10. Tony Kanaan
Kanaan had a few chances to win before he won in 2013. As a rookie, Kanaan had led 23 of the first 89 laps before he spun in some oil ending his race in 2002. However, 2002 is more remembered for Tomas Scheckter leading 85 laps before hitting the wall while leading. In 2005, Kanaan led 54 laps from pole position, but fell back to eighth. However, 2005 was a race where Sam Hornish, Jr. led the most laps, 77.

The one that got away from Kanaan was 2007. When the first rain delay came, Kanaan was leading and he had led majority of the laps. However, the race restarted and the pit stops cycled Kanaan back when the second, and final, delay came. Kanaan ended 12th with 83 laps led while Dario Franchitti won. 

It feels like Kanaan should have one more.

9.  Billy Arnold
Arnold won the 1930 race with 198 laps led, still the record for most led. In 1931, Arnold led 155 of the first 161 laps. On lap 162, Arnold suffered a tire failure and his race ended. In 1932, Arnold led 57 of the first 58 laps before having an accident in turn three. This accident broke Arnold’s shoulder and ended his career. 

The Most Deserving for a Second
8. Alexander Rossi
Rossi may have pulled out one of the more unthinkable victories in 2016 when he stretched his fuel and coasted to victory as a rookie, but pretty much every year since, Rossi has been in contention for victory. He was one of the best cars in 2017 as Andretti Autosport controlled that race for the most part. With 23 laps led, it was the fourth-most on the day, but the pit cycle shuffled Rossi back to seventh. In 2018, Rossi went from 32nd to fourth, and if Rossi doesn’t have a tire puncture on his final qualifying run when everyone was made to qualify twice, he likely doesn’t spend 200 laps chasing from behind.

Simon Pagenaud dominated the 2019 race, but without the late caution for Graham Rahal and Sébastien Bourdais coming together in turn three, Rossi would have won that race as Pagenaud had to save fuel while Rossi had just taken the lead and had plenty of fuel to make it. Without that caution, Pagenaud would have likely lost another few spots, and Rossi would have taken a comfortable victory. Instead, we had a tight battle to the finish, and Pagenaud was able to fight back and defeat Rossi.

In 2020, Rossi was on Scott Dixon’s heels the entire race before Rossi was issued a penalty for contact with Takuma Sato in the pit lane. Rossi ended up outside the top twenty and would have an accident attempting to get back to the front. Sato won the race leap-frogging Dixon in the final pit cycle.

In ten Indianapolis starts, Rossi has six top five finishes.

7. Bill Holland
If it wasn’t for ignored team orders, and better communication from Lou Moore’s team that his lead was under threat, Bill Holland would have won as a rookie in 1947. Holland led 143 laps but Mauri Rose took the lead when Holland thought he had a lap on Rose when he was overtaken with eight laps remaining. Holland went second, second, first, second and 15th in his Indianapolis career. Holland is still ranked 20th all-time in Indianapolis 500 laps led. 

6. Ryan Hunter-Reay
Hunter-Reay maybe should have won the year before he actual won at Indianapolis. He was leading at the time of the final restart with three laps to go. Tony Kanaan passed him into turn one, and about ten seconds later, Dario Franchitti spun and the race ended under caution.

In 2016, Hunter-Reay had one of the best cars, leading 52 laps. The next closest driver was James Hinchcliffe with 27 laps led. However, Hunter-Reay’s race was altered when Townsend Bell made contact with his Andretti Autosport teammate in the pit lane. Both drivers had a shot for victory, but each lost a lap for repairs just after halfway. Hunter-Reay did play a role in Alexander Rossi’s victory as Hunter-Reay towed Rossi around, helping Rossi save the fuel he needed to win the race.

Hunter-Reay was one of the Honda drivers to lose an engine in 2017 when running at the front. He led the second-most laps in that race and he was still in contention when his engine expired on lap 137.

People forget that Hunter-Reay was in the top five in 2021 before he sped entering the pit lane on his final pit stop. He might not have been the most deserving winner that day, but if he didn’t speed, Hunter-Reay would have been up there and could have pulled off what Castroneves did. 

Then there was 2025. Hunter-Reay was one clean stop away from likely winning this race. There is a chance Hunter-Reay would have gotten out of the pit lane ahead of the Devlin DeFrancesco and Louis Foster, meaning he would have had two lapped cars between him, Marcus Ericsson and Álex Palou. If that was the case, Hunter-Reay likely holds on for the final 30 laps without much of a threat.

5. Jim Clark
Clark likely should have won as a rookie in 1963. There is a good case that Parnelli Jones should have been penalized and waved in when his car was leaking oil. In 1964, Clark was leading when his suspension failed on lap 47. Then there was Clark’s historic victory in 1965, and in 1966, Clark was one of the better cars but a pair of spins cost him time and ultimately allowed Graham Hill to win when Jackie Stewart broke down. 

For four consecutive years, Clark was one of the best drivers at Indianapolis. He didn’t get a break in one year, the car broke on him in the next, and in the other, Clark didn’t have a clean race that cost him victory. 

4. Parnelli Jones
We are looking at a driver that could have been a four-time winner. As a sophomore in 1962, Jones led 120 of the first 125 laps, but he was having brake issues and had to nurse the car for the remainder of the race and ultimately finished seventh. Even with the possible penalty for the oil leak in 1963, Jones did lead 167 laps. He was the best driver that day. 

Jones had just inherited the lead when Clark broke down in 1964, but after seven laps in the lead, Jones’ race ended due to a pit fire. A.J. Foyt led the remaining 146 laps without much of a challenge from the rest of the competition. 

Then there is 1967 when a $5 part cost the STP-Paxton Turbocar a victory as a bearing broke when Jones led with four laps remaining. Jones had led 171 laps up to that point. 

3. Scott Dixon
On six occasions has Dixon led the most laps in the Indianapolis 500. Only once has he won.

His best cases for a second were 2012, where Dixon led the second-most laps actually, but he spent a fair amount of the race ahead of both Dario Franchitti and Takuma Sato, only for the race to come down to those two battling into turn one on the final lap.

The real years that stand out are 2020, when Dixon led the most laps and a slightly slower than average pit stop cost him the lead on the final pit cycle, and Dixon was unable to pass Takuma Sato, and then there was 2022, when Dixon had the race won and sped entering the pit lane for his final stop. The stop was fine, the entry is what cost him, and he lost a guaranteed victory.

2. Mario Andretti
For how great Andretti was and as synonymous as he is with heartbreak at Indianapolis, there are only two real cases he has, but they are tough to swallow, and 1981 is not one of them.

He would have won 1981 on a technicality, and Andretti passed cars on the apron after making a pit stop just like Bobby Unser, only Andretti had not passed as many. 

The real years are 1985 and 1987.

In 1985, Andretti was in a tight battle with Danny Sullivan the entire race. Andretti led over half the race, and when Sullivan spun, it felt like it was going to be Andretti’s day, but Sullivan came back and took the lead only 20 laps after the spin on a similar move in turn one. Only 2.477 seconds separated the drivers at the checkered flag.

In 1987, Andretti had a lap on the field and no one was close to touching him. However, after leading 170 of 177 laps, he slowed due to an engine issue, and this took Andretti out of the race. It is believed pacing himself in those final laps led to a harmonic imbalance in the car, leading to a broken value spring. 

1. Ralph DePalma
DePalma has nearly a handful of races that got away from him.

The car broke down with two laps to go while DePalma had a five-lap lead in 1912. He led 196 of 200 laps.

DePalma led 93 of the first 102 laps in 1919 before tire issues forced a lengthy pit stop and took him out of contention. 

In 1920, he had a two-lap lead when mechanical issues caused him to stop on track with 14 laps remaining. 

The following year saw DePalma lead 108 of the first 110 laps before a connecting rod broke. 

At the end of the 1921 race, DePalma had led 612 laps of 1,720 laps run in the first nine Indianapolis 500s. The next closest drivers on laps led was Dario Resta on 140. DePalma would be the all-time leader in Indianapolis 500 laps led until the final lap of the 1987 race when Al Unser took the checkered flag for his fourth victory. DePalma was the all-time leader for 75 years. His last Indianapolis 500 start was a century ago, and he is still third all-time. The man could have been a five-time winner in the first decade of the race. Nobody deserves a second more than DePalma.

We all know how difficult it is to win the Indianapolis 500, and there is no better example in that three of the top four drivers in laps led in the event each only won once. There may be a driver or two who get off this list. There will more likely be another half-dozen who join it. 

Champions From the Weekend

Leonardo Fornaroli clinched the Formula Two championships with finishes of sixth and second at Qatar.

Sébastien Ogier clinched the World Rally Championship with a third-place finish in Rally Saudi Arabia while Elfyn Evans was sixth and Kalle Rovanperä was seventh. It was Ogier’s ninth World Rally Championship, tying. Sébastien Loeb’s record. 

Chaz Mostert clinched the Supercars championship with three consecutive finishes of second at Adelaide while Will Brown went ninth, fourth and third; Broc Freeney went fourth, first and 20th after an opening lap spin and engine issues; and Kai Allen went fifth, fifth and fourth.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Verstappen and Piastri, but did you know....

Richard Verschoor (sprint) and Victor Martins (feature) split the Formula Two races from Qatar.

Brodie Kostecki and Matt Payne won the other two Supercars races from Adelaide.

Thierry Neville won Rally Saudi Arabia.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Formula One season ends in Abu Dhabi.
The Formula E season begins in São Paulo.


Friday, November 28, 2025

Best of the Month: November 2025

For many of you, this could be a day off for the Thanksgiving holiday, and if we are honest, you haven't done a thing for a week and still have another weekend between you and productivity. When you return to work, it will be December, and the year will be entering its final chapter. Oh my, has 2025 flown!

It will not be long until we hit a hiatus for nearly every series, but a few championships will keep us busy for a month or so. Truth be told, December is really the only month off for motorsports. It is not like it once was when November was pretty quiet outside of NASCAR, everything was silent come December, and most of January was quiet. You can stay occupied with motorsports for a good 11 months. 

As we are near the end, there are two championships I want to focus on, both of which could be determined this weekend, one of which definitely will be decided.

World Rally Championship
The final round of the 2025 World Rally Championship season, the inaugural Rally Saudi Arabia, is underway and three drivers are alive for the championship.

Toyota's Elfyn Evans leads with 272 points, three points more than Toyota's Sébastien Ogier with Toyota's Kalle Rovanperä 24 pants behind Evans with 35 points left on the table. 

This has been an interesting championship because Ogier was not a full-time competitor at the tart of the season. He won Rallye Monte-Carlo and then took off the next two rounds from Sweden and Kenya. Then Ogier returned and went second, first, first, second. Through seven of 14 rounds, Ogier was nine points off the championship lead, and then he skipped the next round. 

Ogier returned and went third, first, first over Finland, Paraguay and Chile, and entering the final three rounds, the Frenchman held a two-point championship lead. His hand was kind of forced to go for the world title. 

An accident in the Central European Rally broke serve for Ogier and put Evans back on top, but an Ogier victory in Japan has a ninth WRC title within his grasp. This has been stellar to watch as one of the best to ever race has become a championship contender out of nowhere. He has spent the last three seasons competing part-time, and he has finished in the top five of the championship the last two years. 

However, this championship feels like a crossroads for WRC. 

Ogier doesn't want to be a full-time driver anymore. Rovanperä took off most of last year, and he will be done with rallying as he will run in Super Formula next year, and Rovanperä is only 25 years old. Two of the top three in the championship might not be back on a regular basis in 2026, and we haven't even mentioned that fourth in the championship, Ott Tänak, will retire at the end of this season. 

WRC lacks notable talent at the moment. Twenty years ago the likes of Marcus Grönholm, Colin McRae, Tommi Mäkinen, Carols Sainz, Sébastien Loeb and Petter Solberg were all celebrated and respected names in the motorsports world, and WRC doesn't hold that same reverence as it once did. This is not a new problem. It has been developing for over a decade, and there does not appear to be that next wave of drivers on their way to grab your attention.

This feels like a pivotal point in the series because it is an outstanding championship battle involving a few of the best to ever compete, and we could not see another such title fight for a while.

Formula One
It is rather satisfying to be entering the penultimate round of the Formula One season and have three drivers within one race victory of the championship lead. Thanks to McLaren's double disqualification, Lando Norris leads each Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen by 24 points with 58 points left on the table with two grand prix and sprint race remaining. 

There is a good chance Norris locks up the title this weekend in Qatar and the title is settled a race early, but it has not been without the dramatics. 

Since summer break, we had Lando Norris lose an engine while in a podium position at Zandvoort. McLaren had a slow pit stop for Norris lead to the team switch positions with its drivers as Norris stopped after Piastri and lost the position due to the slow stop. Norris took second while Piastri was third. Piastri has not been back on the podium since that day. 

Then at Azerbaijan, Piastri jumped the start and had an accident on the opening lap while Norris could not do better than seventh. 

While all this was taking place, Verstappen has finished on the podium in eight races since the summer break. He has won three of them. It is an outside shot Verstappen will win the championship, but he has done enough to remain alive this deep into the season, and nothing can be entirely ruled out. 

Not to forget mentioning Verstappen is achieving this after Christian Horner was fired from Red Bull in July.

This will likely play out as we expect. Norris has enough of a cushion that he can take it easy and not be caught, but the world can be a funny place. Just because it appears inevitable, does not mean it cannot be spun on its head. If it is, this season will become all the more memorable besides McLaren's dominance and constructors' championship.

December Preview
Formula E begins next weekend with the São Paulo ePrix on Saturday December 6. It is the first of a 17-race championship.

This season will see two new venues on the schedule, as the Miami ePrix (January 31) moves to the Miami International Autodrome, home of the Miami Grand Prix, and Circuito del Jarama will host the Madrid ePrix (March 21). Sanya will return with a round on June 20 after not being on the calendar for the last seven years.

Mexico City (January 10), Jeddah (February 13-14), Berlin (May 2-3), Monaco (May 16-17), Shanghai (July 4-5), Tokyo (July 25-26) and London (August 15-16) return from last season. 

McLaren has left after three seasons while Citroën replaces Maserati on the grid. Defending champion Oliver Rowland remains with Nissan and has Norman Nato as his teammate. Jean-Éric Vergne and Nick Cassidy will occupy both Citroën seats with António Félix da Costa replacing Cassidy at Jaguar blog side Mitch Evans. Porsche has replaced da Costa with Nico Müller.

Sébastien Buemi remains with Envision Racing, while Lucas di Grassi is at Lola Yamaha ABT. Andretti Formula E has Felipe Drugovich toking up its other seat next to Jake Dennis. Pepe Martí will be the lone debutant on the 2025-26 grid. Martí will drive for Cupra Kiro with Dan Ticktum  as his teammate. With McLaren's departure, Sam Bird is left without a race seat, and Bird will be reserve driver at Nissan. Since his Formula E debut in 2014, Bird has only not started six races. 

This season will mark the final season of the Gen3 regulations after four seasons of operation. 

December Preview
There is not much remaining on the calendar for December 2025. 

Beside the Formula One finale from Abu Dhabi, the Asian Le Mans Series begins with a doubleheader from Sepang over December 13-14.

Algarve Pro Racing won last year's champion in LMP2, and there are three APR-related entries, one of which is the CrowdStrike Racing by APR Oreca for Louis Delétraz, Malthe Jakobsen and George Kurtz. Enzo Trulli will be in APR's #25 Oreca. United Autosport's will have two cars entered int he top class. Tristian Vautier is driving for RD Limited. Gustavo Menezes is back in competition, and Menezes will drive the #49 Oreca for High Class Racing with Theodor Jensen and Jens Reno Møller.

Narain Karthikeyan will be in LMP3 driving the #1 Team Virage Ligier alongside fellow Indian Ajith Kumar. A third driver will be announced later.

Twenty-two cars are entered in the GT class, including Memo Gidley racing for Kessel Racing in the #15 Ferrari alongside Alessandro Balzan and Dylan Medler.

There are a few things to look for if you need the Asian Le Mans Series to hold you over. 

However, we have December and the Christmas season coming. We will wrap up a few more series, celebrate the best of 2025, and turn an eye to 2026. Stay tuned!


Monday, November 24, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: This Could Be Bigger Than We Think

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Max Verstappen won the Las Vegas Grand Prix as both McLarens were disqualified for excessive wear to their skid plates. This means three drivers have 24 points between them with two grand prix and a sprint race remaining, as Lando Norris is ahead of Oscar Piastri and Verstappen, who are tied for second. Manhole covers again proved to be a menace. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing hired Gavin Ward. Mick Schumacher will not return to Alpine. Some text message have been released as we near the trial in the 23XI Racing/Front Row Motorsports lawsuit against NASCAR. It warrants our attention.

This Could Be Bigger Than We Think
Unless some settlement is reached before Thanksgiving, we will start the month of December with 23XI/Front Row going to court with NASCAR over the sanctioning body's alleged antitrust violations. 

In the lawsuit, the teams are challenging NASCAR's business practices, as the teams believe NASCAR has a monopoly over the industry after the two teams refused to sign NASCAR's new charter agreement terms in 2024. The teams did not agree to the terms that the charters would not be made permanent. 

Since the teams filed the lawsuit on October 2, 2024, this has been slowly boiling. For over a year, as more information has trickled out and has been released, both sides have had their dirty laundry revealed, and in recent days we have learned of the Race Team Alliance, the organization that consists of the 15 NASCAR Cup Series team owners, plans to organize non-NASCAR affiliated exhibition races around the globe, including in Oman, and we have NASCAR executives' disdain for the Superstars Racing Experience and its drivers, owners and broadcasters competing in SRX.

More is still to come, and that should have the interest of all motorsports in the United States.

NASCAR's control is not only on stock car racing. It has control on almost every asset in American motorsports. Pretty much any series that has four wheels and competes on pavement in this country likely crosses path with NASCAR. Whether that is the sanctioning body owning the series or the tracks where races are host, NASCAR is likely involved. It even owns the equipment that dries surfaces. What happens in this lawsuit is of much interest to those have never spent a second in the NASCAR garage area.

A decision could not only flip how race teams and wealth are distributed within the sanctioning body, but it could change the landscape of motorsports in this country. 

If NASCAR is ruled a monopoly, something would have to be done to break that monopoly. It isn't just paying the teams money and giving them a bigger say at the table. A ruling could require NASCAR to divest itself of some of its assets. That is more than just NASCAR.

That could be selling ARCA. That could be selling the regional series. It could be selling IMSA. 

That is more than just series. 

NASCAR owns a great number of racetracks, some of the most notable in the country. 

Daytona, Talladega, Martinsville, Watkins Glen, even Sebring and Road Atlanta are under NASCAR ownership. 

NASCAR owns notable websites as well, such as Racing-Reference and Jayski, two valuable sources when it comes to information involving its series as well as other forms of motorsports. 

A seismic ruling could significantly alter the layout of things in American motorsports, and it might not be for the better. 

If NASCAR is forced to sell racetracks, those racetracks might no longer be racetracks. A development company could come in and decide to make that land a housing complex. It could become a warehouse or a strip mall. There is no guarantee that there is another entity out there within the motorsports community that would be willing to swoop in. Over the last two decades, the land the racetracks are on is worth more than the track itself. The interested buyers have no interest in maintaining the facility as it is. Its plans are beyond racing and turn the property into something where no one will ever know a track was ever there.

If any track goes away, it goes away for NASCAR and IndyCar and IMSA and any other series that wishes to compete there. A major area could lose its prominent racetrack and interest in motorsports will suffer because of it. It would require more work to maintain the footprint that NASCAR and other series have in this country. NASCAR sold off most of the land in Fontana, and though we are five years removed from a planned short track that was already supposed to be in operation, there is no race taking place at that facility. There isn't even a functional racetrack. Warehouses have sprung around an abandoned slap of asphalt.

Southern California isn't the only place where NASCAR is lacking. Despite its size, the Rocky Mountains does not have a proper facility that draws the top series. The Pacific Northwest has essentially always been ignored when it comes to NASCAR since the start of the Modern Era in 1972. NASCAR did grow over the last 30 years, but it didn't reach everywhere, and one decision could cause the footprint to shrink just a little more.

I don't know if the likes of Roger Penske, Rick Hendrick, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Joe Gibbs, or even Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan have any interest in buying Chicagoland Speedway or Richmond Raceway to save the day if so be it. That could be what is needed depending on the outcome of this lawsuit. 

It does not feel like the industry is ready to take on such a demand if called upon. Owning race teams and owning racetracks are two different things. Considering this is an antitrust lawsuit, I am not sure NASCAR could just sell the tracks to Speedway Motorsports, Inc. That appears to solve one antitrust concern by creating another antitrust concern. I am not sure Curtis Francois is looking to expand his track ownership beyond Gateway Motorsports Park. It does not feel like IndyCar has the bandwidth to own any tracks. 

There isn't a third racetrack ownership company out there at the moment. A decision could create the space for one to form, but that takes a lot of capital, and I don't know if there are enough interested investors that wants to add multi-track ownership to their responsibilities. 

Once the dominoes start to fall, it could get quite messy, and it is a mess most don't want to step in.

We are all heading into this lawsuit expecting something to change. Status quo seems improbable to maintain considering what we now know and how things have developed over about the last 14 months. Though expected, it still might not be fathomable to some people how big the outcome of this lawsuit could be, and how it could extend beyond one sanctioning body. It could be more than just money changing hands and everyone going on their merry way.

A decade down the line, we could still be feeling the ripple effect from whatever is decided, and it might not play out as we hoped. The shock will not be instantaneous. It will likely hit us slowly though we knew it was coming. That is what will make it hurt worse. 

There is a chance when enough time has passed, we will be thinking there were no winners from whatever is decided. Are we ready for that?

Champions From the Weekend

Ayumu Iwasa won the Super Formula championship despite a retirement in the first race of the weekend at Suzuka, as Iwasa was fourth and first in the final two races. Iwasa came from behind to defend Sho Tsuboi, who was fourth, seventh and eighth over the three races.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen and Ayumu Iwasa, but did you know...

Tomoki Nojiri and Igor Fraga split the first two Super Formula races from Suzuka.

Coming Up This Weekend
Supercars finale from Adelaide.
Lando Norris has a chance to clinch the World Drivers' Championship at the Qatar Grand Prix.
The World Rally Championship will be decided at Rally Saudi Arabia between either Elfyn Evans, Sébastien Ogier or Kalle Rovanperä.

Friday, November 21, 2025

2025 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

With the MotoGP season concluding in Valencia on Sunday, the motorcycle season is effectively over... for now. There will be two-wheel action returning in the very near-future. It doesn't take long for that competition to return. It practically comes when the calendar flips.

Until then, let's take this moment to acknowledge the predictions made over a variety of categories of the two-wheel discipline.

MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez will reach 100 career pole positions
Correct!

On his way to his ninth world championship and first since 2019, Márquez won eight pole positions, giving him 102 in his career when the season was all said and done. The Catalan rider started on pole position in the first four races, setting him up nicely to hit the century mark at some point during this season. He would not win pole position for the next three rounds, but he then won pole position at Aragón and Mugello. Márquez reached the century mark within the first nine races. 

He won two more pole positions at Germany and Hungary, and he ended the season with most pole positions despite missing the final four races due to a collarbone fracture suffered during the Indonesian Grand Price after contact from Marco Bezzecchi. 

2. The "sprint champion" will score fewer than 150 points
Incorrect!

Marc Márquez won 14 sprint races on his own. That is 168 points. He didn't need to score a point in any other sprint race for this prediction to be incorrect. Márquez ended the season with 190 points, the most from sprint races. His brother Álex scored 158 points in sprint races.

Not only did the sprint champion score more than 150 points, but so did the sprint vice-champion. Just goes to show how wrong this prediction was.

3. On at least one occasion will there be three consecutive races with three different manufacturers victorious
Correct!

In 2024, Ducati won 19 races and Aprilia won once. 

In 2025, Ducati opened with five consecutive victories. Then in a stunning mixed conditions race, Johann Zarco won the French Grand Prix for LCR Honda. At the next race at Silverstone, Marco Bezzecchi took a stunning victory from tenth on the grid, ironically ahead of Zarco and Márquez, and Aprilia made it three different winning constructors in three races. 

Ducati then won the next 11 races. Aprilia won three of the final four, two at the hands of Bezzecchi. 

Somehow, this prediction turned out to be correct, and I doubt anyone expected Honda to be involved (Thanks for nothing, KTM).

4. The difference between the top two riders on Japanese bikes will be less than 50 points
Incorrect!

Despite Zarco's victory and some rather encouraging days for Honda, a Honda rider was not the best Japanese bike contestant in the 2025 season. That went to Yamaha's Fabio Quartararo, who scored 201 points and finished ninth in the championship. Quartararo had a slow, but improving start to his season, and in the fifth round from Jerez he started on pole position and finished second. It was the first of three consecutive pole positions the Frenchman would earn. 

However, he had three-race retirement run from Le Mans through Aragón, but then Quartararo had 13 consecutive finishes in the points before he crashed out of the Valencia finale. That consistency put a gap between Quartararo and the rest of the riders on Japanese bikes.

The next closest was fellow Frenchman Johann Zarco, who was 12th in the championship, but on 148 points, 53 points behind Quartararo!

Darn! So close! I don't know where this one got away from me. I am sure there are four races, grand prix and/or sprint, where Zarco could have been at least a spot better. 

5. David Alonso's longest winning streak is not greater than four races
Correct!

After smacking the competition silly in Moto3 in 2024 with 14 victories from 20 races, Alonso moved up to Moto2 and had humbling success against the bigger boys. He only won once, and that was at Hungary. In only five races did Alonso finish on the podium, and three of those were in the final four races.

The Colombian was ninth in the championship on 153 points.

6. Moto3 will be the closest championship margin among the top three classes
Incorrect!

Moto3 was the greatest margin between first and second in the championship for the second consecutive season! Much of that was down to Marc Márquez missing the final four rounds, allowing his brother Álex Márquez to finish 78 points back. However, Moto3 also had its champion-elect out for multiple races to end the season. 

In Moto3, José Antonio Rueda won the title on 365 points, but Rueda missed the final three races after he suffered a fractured hand and concussion from a collision with Swiss rider Noah Dettwiler on the sighting lap for the Malaysia race. Dettwiler suffered multiple cardiac arrests and open leg fracture as well as injuries to his lung and a removal of his spleen from that collision. 

With Rueda out, Ángel Piqueras ended the season 84 points off Rueda in second.

Moto2 ended up being the closest championship, and it was the only one that went undecided into the final round. Diogo Moreira scored 287 points, 30 more than Manuel González. 

World Superbike
7. Toprak Razgatlioglu will have more third-place finishes in the final four rounds than he will in the first eight rounds
Correct!

Somehow, Razgatlioglu was better in 2025 than he was in 2024, and somehow, this prediction ended up coming true in the final race of the season. 

In the first eight rounds, Razgatlioglu had zero third-place finishes. He needed one third-place finish for this to come true. Entering the final race, race 36 of the season, he still had not finished third this season. 

What happened in the final race of the season?

Razgatlioglu ended up third behind Nicolò Bulega and Álvaro Bautista. In the final four rounds, Razgatlioglu had one third-place finish. In the first eight rounds, he had none. 

Count it!

8. At least two rounds will feature three different winners
Incorrect!

There were only three winners the entire season. Toprak Razgatliogu won 21 times and Nicolò Bulega won 14 times. Andrea Locatelli won one race, and it was a weekend when there were three different winners in each race. 

At Assen, Bulega won the first race, Razgatlioglu won the SuperPole race and Locatelli won the second race. 

Eight rounds saw a rider sweep the weekend. Five came at the hands of Razgatlioglu and three times it was Bulega.

Besides the Assen round, in the other three rounds, Razgatlioglu and Bulega were first and second. There wasn't even a case of, in a weekend where the two split the races, there was one race where someone else finished second and we were maybe a position away from this being correct. 

9. None of the top five riders in the championship miss a race
Incorrect!

This was looking good heading into the penultimate round of the season from Estoril. Each of the top five riders had started every race. Then Danilo Petrucci injured his hand in training and missed the final two rounds. Petrucci ended up fifth in the championship. 

It was inconsequential that Petrucci was 66 points clear of Alex Lowes in sixth, but Lowes missed the final two races of the Donington Park weekend. 

Supercross/Motocross
10. At least one Supercross podium will feature three riders that do not finish in the top three of the championship
Correct!

Somehow, this one was correct, but it was due to unfortuante circumstances. The top three finishers in the 2025 championship (Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton and Justin Cooper) combined for 29 out of a possible 51 podium finishes. Six riders outside the top three in the championship finished on the podium at some point over the 17 race season, but there was one race where none of the podium finishers ended up being top three championship finishers. 

It was the third round of the seaosn from Anaheim. Jett Lawrence won the race. Ken Roczen was second. Jason Anderson was third.

Lawrence tore his ACL in the next round from Glendale, ending his season. He ended up classified 18th in championship.

Roczen ended up suffering an ankle injury that took him out of the final two races of the season. This dropped Roczen to fifth in the championship, ten points behind Cooper. Roczen won at Daytona, and he had seven podium finishes in 2025. 

Anderson's season ended after the Birmingham round due to ongoing health concerns. Anderson did return for the Motocross season, but he ended his season after six rounds due to his health. 

Not really how I wished this prediction ended up being correct. I was hoping for a competitive season where fourth, seventh and eighth in the championship all had their best nights occur simultaneously.  

11. Jorge Prado will be the top finishing European rider in the Supercross championship
Incorrect!

As mentioned above, Ken Roczen was fifth in the championship, and the German rider was the best European of the 2025 season.

Prado ran the first two races and in qualifying for the third round from Anaheim, Prado dislocated his shoulder and surgery took him out of the remainder of the season. The Spaniard had finished 14th and 12th in the first two races. 

12. Neither Jett Lawrence nor Haiden Deegan will win SuperMotocross World Championships
Incorrect!

While Deegan did not win the SuperMotocross World Championship in the 250cc division as Jo Shimoda took the title with two victories over the three rounds, Jett Lawrence did win the SuperMotocross championship for the third consecutive year in the 450cc class. Lawrence went first, second, first over the three rounds from Charlotte, St. Louis and Las Vegas respectively. 

That is six-for-12, 50%. 

There are a few tough breaks. A few went my way that seemed unlikely. 

Win some, lose some, onto the next one.