Thursday, February 13, 2025

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

For 37 of the next 38 weekends, the NASCAR Cup Series will be in competition, as the 2025 season is about to begin from Daytona International Speedway. 

Qualifying is already complete. We know the front row for the Daytona 500, and two of the four Open entries have clinched a starting spot based on their qualifying speed. Tonight, the two qualifying races will set the remainder of the grid for NASCAR's most prestigious race. 

This weekend is familiar, but this season will see a few new things in the Cup Series. New tracks, new broadcast partners, a new tournament, and a new bonus points for fastest lap, the 2025 Cup season will see a variety of changes that NASCAR is becoming known for in the 2020s. 

Daytona 500 qualifying is compelte. We know the front row for the Daytona 500, and the two fastest Open entries have clinched their spots in the field.

Schedule 
Daytona plays host to the season opener for another season and Atlanta will be the second race for the second consecutive season. The first change we will see is in Texas with Circuit of the Americas in Austin moving up to March 2, and the track configuration will be different. Instead of using the full 3.426-mile circuit, NASCAR will run the 2.356-mile national circuit, which was famously used for Supercars only visit to the track in 2013. 

Austin will kick off the Southwestern swing as Phoenix follows on March 9 and Las Vegas will run on March 16. After that three-race stretch, the series will return to Florida as Homestead-Miami Speedway returns to March. Homestead previously had a two-year stretch when it was not in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Martinsville closes March with a 400-lap race on the 30th. 

Darlington's spring race moves to April 6 after running in May the previous five seasons. Bristol will be the following week before the Easter break on April 20, the only off-weekend during the entire 2025 Cup season. 

NASCAR returns to competition on April 27 at Talladega before Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway takes the Cup Series into the All-Star Weekend. North Wilkesboro remains the All-Star Race host for a third consecutive season. 

The Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte Motor Speedway remains on Memorial Day weekend on the night of May 25. Nashville moves up to June 1 and that will also be a night race. Michigan's lone race will be June 8, the first time NASCAR has visited the Irish Hills in June since 2019. 

For the first time since 1958, the NASCAR Cup Series will have an international championship race as Mexico City's Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez will host the Cup Series on June 15. The Mexico City circuit previously hosted NASCAR's second division from 2005 to 2008. One week later, NASCAR will race at Pocono.

The combined results after Michigan, Mexico City and Pocono will determine the draw for NASCAR's first-ever in-season tournament. Over five races, 32 drivers will be paired head-to-head in a bracket. Each race will see the drivers compete with the best finisher progressing to the next round. 

The in-season tournament begins with NASCAR's return to Atlanta on June 28. The round of 16 will be the Chicago street race on July 6. Sonoma hosts the quarterfinals on July 13 before Dover hosts the semifinals on July 20. The NASCAR in-season tournament champion will be decided at the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. 

Once the in-season tournament is complete, there will be four rounds remaining in the regular season. Iowa moves to August 3 for its second Cup weekend. Watkins Glen returns to August after one season in the playoffs. Richmond will host a night race on August 16 before Daytona closes out the regular season with a 400-mile race on the night of August 23.

The Southern 500 returns as the playoff opener on August 31 with Gateway moving into the playoffs for the first time on September 7. Bristol closes out round one on September 13. 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and it will host the opening race of the round of 12 on September 21. Kansas drops to the fifth race of the playoffs on September 28. The Charlotte Motor Speedway ends the second round on October 5.

The semifinal round begins at Las Vegas on the evening of October 12. Talladega drops into the semifinal round on October 19, the latest a Talladega race has ever been held in the championship. The final four decider remains at Martinsville on October 26 with the 2025 season finale set for November 2 at Phoenix.

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 Busch Beer/Moose Fraternity/Kubota/Jockey Chevrolet
Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Decent. Trackhouse did well last year even if it was not quite match its 2023 output that put the #1 team in the final four. Chastain and company took chances last year banking on a victory that did not come until he was already out of the playoffs. Leading what is now a three-car team, Trackhouse is going to make a playoff push. The mistakes of last year will not be repeated. If they are, things will look the same.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Chastain won at Kansas last year, but he also ran particularly well on the road courses with top five finish's at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, and another top ten in Austin. 

Austin Cindric - #2 Menards/Discount Tires/Keystone Light Ford
Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2022)
2025 Playoff Prospects: For a team that has won the championship in three consecutive seasons, Cindric is in a good place. It is also a team that struggled for results last year until the playoffs. Cindric was at the right place at the right time when teammate Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap at Gateway. Without, Cindric isn't in the playoffs. Something similar feels like it will be necessary in 2025.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For all the thoughts that it would be the road courses, Cindric's record is not great on the road courses in this generation of car. 

Cindric qualified second for the Daytona 500, and this will be his fourth consecutive year starting inside the top six for the Daytona 500.

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/Winchester/BetMGM/Dow/Titan Risk Solutions Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 32nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)
2025 Playoff Prospects: In the last two seasons, Dillon has finished 29th and 32nd in the championship. He might have won at Richmond, but his antics to pull off the victory led to NASCAR discrediting it toward a playoff position. It was still his only top five finish and he ended 2024 with only five top ten finishes. Richard Childress Racing might not be that good, but it isn't that bad either. It would take something special for Dillon to make the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Even without the penalty, Richmond is one of Dillon's better tracks as he has seven top ten finishes in 21 starts. 

Noah Gragson - #4 MillerTech/Zep/Rush Truck Centers Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 9th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Three teams in three years, Gragson is at a Front Row Motorsports group that had surprising spurts at speed. FRM can produce good results. Consistency will be the question. Gragson did better with Stewart-Haas Racing than in his partial season at Legacy Motor Club. There will be much work to do to break into the top twenty. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: With the speed Front Row Motorsports showed in 2024, Gragson must feel good about Daytona and Talladega.

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Valvoline Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Excellent. A lock. It isn't a matter of if Larson will win a race but when and how many. The real question for Larson is if he can win the regular season championship. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. He is going to win multiple times. It is more of what discipline will he not win on? He can, and likely will, win on them all. 

Possible Milestones: Larson is one victory away from becoming the 30th driver with at least 30 Cup victories. Larson is also 744 laps led away from becoming the 22nd driver with 10,000 laps led in a career.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Castrol/BuildSubmarines.com/Fastenal/Consumer Cellular/Solomon Plumbing/Kroger/Esperion Therapeutics Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Good. Keselowki made it last year and RFK Racing made a big stride last season. Another stride will be tough to achieve, especially since Keselowski isn't even the best driver in this team. He should make it, though he could be on the bubble and closer to missing than he would like.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Keselowski won at Darlington last year, but he ran well on the intermediate tracks with top five finishes at Texas, Charlotte, and even Gateway. 

Possible Milestone: Keselowski is four victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Justin Haley - #7 Celsius/Gainbridge/Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet
Team: Spire Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Spire Motorsports has made gains, and Haley has shown good speed, but the likelihood he will be good enough to make it on points is a stretch. He can put himself in a spot to win at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. Outside of that, the points are not going to be there for Haley to make it. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Haley is in the Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta group, but he has also had good runs at Darlington the last two years.

Kyle Busch - #8 3CHI/Cheddars/Lucas Oil/Bank OKZ/BetMGM/Rebel Bourbon/Zone Premium Nicotine Pouches Chevrolet
Team: Richard Childress Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Last year is still a bit of a stunner that Busch did not make the playoffs and went winless for the first time in his Cup career. It is Kyle Busch. He can pull off one race. If Austin Dillon can win a Richmond race out of nowhere, though after taking out two cars in one corner, Busch can capitalize when things click. However, RCR is not in a great place. We are a long way away from February 2023 when Busch won in his second start with the team. He could be on the edge of making it on points.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: No Busch victory would be a surprise. At this point though, it feels like Busch's next victory will be a plate race or a driver's track like Dover or Darlington or Bristol.

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst/Amazon Prime Video Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Elliott should make it. All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars should. Elliott has shown he can consistently score points and also pick up some good results. He will be there and likely be in the top eight in points when the regular season is over. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He won at Texas last year, but that is his only victory in the last two seasons. He had some great runs on the short tracks with top five finishes in both Martinsville races, top tens in both Bristol and Richmond races, and a third in the inaugural Iowa race. 

Possible Milestone: Elliott is one victory away from becoming the 44th driver with at least 20 Cup victories

Ty Dillon - #10 Grizzly Nictoine Pouches/Sea Best Chevrolet
Team: Kaulig Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (22nd in the NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Dillon makes the playoffs if he wins one of the plate races or he is in the right spot if there is a rainstorm. For almost a decade, Dillon has performed to the point that he is now failing up. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin - #11 Sport Clips/National Debt Relief/King's Hawaiian Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin should be there. Joe Gibbs Racing did not have a stellar end last season, but Hamlin figures out a way to win multiple times even when the team is not performing at its highest level.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Really anywhere, but we know how well Hamlin runs at Richmond, Martinsville, Bristol, Pocono, Kansas. He is also a three-time Daytona 500 winner.

Possible Milestone: Hamlin is 14 starts away from the 700-start milestone.

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/Wurth/Discount Tire/Dent Wizard/Wabash Ford
Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Team Penske is going to get Blaney in the playoffs. It might not be the greatest regular season, but Team Penske will have its half-dozen weekends where it is phenomenal and Blaney will win one of those. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It appears Martinsville and Phoenix are going to be good bets for Blaney success. 

Possible Milestone: Blaney is 730 laps led away from 5,000 laps led in a Cup career.

A.J. Allmendinger - #16 Celsius/LeafFilter Chevrolet
Team: Kaulig Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (3rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2009, 2017)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Would it surprise you if Allmendinger is 16th in points and he sneaks in by fewer than a half-dozen points? No. Would it surprise you if Allmendinger won at Austin and Watkins Glen? No. Would it surprise you if Allmendinger was 22nd in points after the regular season with no victories, two top five finishes and five top ten results? No. He could make it, but he is equally as likely to not make it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The road courses lead the list, but Allmendinger could put together an exceptional run at Martinsville, and he has top ten finishes in his last four Daytona 500 starts dating back to 2017.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol Edge/BuildSubmarines.com/Esperion Therapeutics/Kroger Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)
2024 Playoff Prospects: Buescher ended up on the wrong side of a Harrison Burton victory at Daytona and Chase Briscoe victory at Darlington in the final two regular season races last year. He then won two races into the playoffs. Buescher should win one of the first 26 races. That should get him into the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Buescher is a sleeper on road courses even though he won at Watkins Glen last year. His short track form is also rather dangerous.

Chase Briscoe - #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2022)
2025 Playoff Prospects: You would think better than last year moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, but Gibbs has not won since Loudon in June 2024. The team went the entire second half of the season winless. That likely will not last for long in 2025, but Gibbs had a shaky end to 2024. The team could take a dip, which might be bad timing for Briscoe.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Short tracks. Briscoe already has a Phoenix victory. He may be looking forward to Martinsville and Loudon more now that he is at Gibbs.

Briscoe won pole position for the Daytona 500 in his first start for Joe Gibbs Racing. It is Toyota's first pole position in the Daytona 500, and it Joe Gibbs Racing's second Daytona 500 pole position, its first since Bobby Labonte won it in 1998 driving a Pontiac.

Christopher Bell - #20 DeWalt/Rheem/Interstate Batteries/Yahoo! Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2023-24)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Bell was one of the best drivers in 2024, and he carried Gibbs in the playoffs only to fall short of making the championship four. Bell will have the speed to push for the top spot in the series. He is going to win multiple races, and he could be the man to beat. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Plenty of tracks. It is almost a case of where do we think Bell cannot win. The plate tracks have not been kind to Bell.

Josh Berry - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/PPG Ford
Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 27th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 25th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: For the last three seasons the Wood Brothers have been in a rough patch. We know this can be a playoff team. Berry should make it more competitive, especially on short tracks, but it is a tough bunch to breakthrough to get from 27th to the top 16. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Berry could be looking at better opportunities for victories on the short tracks, and that includes the likes of Gateway and Darlington.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil/Hunt Brother's Pizza/AAA Insurance Ford
Team: Team Penske
2024 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Logano will be in the playoffs. He will get his two or three victories in a season. If he times them right, he could be champion, even if he doesn't look that threatening for the first 32 weeks of the season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is Logano. Pick you track, he can win there.

Possible Milestone: Logano is four victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Bubba Wallace - #23 McDonald's/Columbia/U.S. Air Force/Leidos/Chumba Casino Toyota
Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 18th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018, 2022)
2025 Playoff Prospects: On the fence. There is a world where 23XI Racing and Toyota are finding speed and Wallace is able to turn it into a victory at a mile-and-a-half track. There is a world where Wallace is good, gets some top ten finishes, but he isn't fantastic, a few bad races knock him down the order, and he finds himself on the outside like last year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace had some close calls at Texas recently. He has had good runs at Michigan. Last year, he ran well at Darlington. Plus, he has done well at Daytona and Talladega.

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Raptor/Valvoline/Liberty University/HP Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Byron won early last year, went quiet, and then made noise and a championship four run. Again, he will be there, but it is a matter of what he does once he gets there. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In each of the previous two seasons, Byron has won on an road course, short oval and plate track, and that isn't counting all the top fives he scored last year on intermediate circuits.

Todd Gilliland - #34 Love's Travel Stops/Carl Ruedebusch/A&W Restaurants/Grillo's Pickles Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2023)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Not everyone can make the playoffs. Gilliland made an improvement last year. However, it will likely take an unexpected victory in a race where Gilliland really wasn't the man to beat to make the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. 

Riley Herbst - #35 Monster Energy/Chumba Casino Toyota
Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019, 2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: In 175 starts in NASCAR's second division, Herbst won three times and he finished in the top ten in just under half those races. The Cup Series is better. He has two tough teammates to beat and then about 33 other drivers. If he can crack the top twenty it will be a successful season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Phoenix was one of Herbst's better tracks at the second division. 

Possible Milestone: Car #35 has never won a NASCAR Cup Series race.

Zane Smith - #38 Speedy Cash/TitleMax/Benebone Ford
Team: Front Row Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2023-24)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Smith didn't have a great 2024 season with a decent Spire outfit. Front Row Motorsports is good. He has to act least challenge his teammates and shoot to be second in the three-car outfit. The playoffs feel like a stretch, but he won his share of Daytona Truck races. Perhaps he snags a playoff spot early.  

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Talladega and I guess Atlanta.

Cole Custer - #41 Haas Automation/HaasTooling.com Ford
Team: Haas Factory Team
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2nd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: It is one of the few single-car teams in the Cup Series built off the remnants of Stewart-Haas Racing. Custer's first stint in the Cup Series was good. He won in his rookie season at Kentucky in 2020, but he could not establish great consistency and become a regular threat. There does not feel like a reason to expect different this time around. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Custer has good track records at Pocono and Dover in the second division. 

John Hunter Nemechek - #42 Dollar Tree/Family Dollar/Mobil 1/Albertson's Toyota
Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 34th 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Legacy Motor Club's move to Toyota did not yield much different in 2024 compared to 2023. Nemechek will have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs. It really comes down to getting lucky.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Put Nemechek in the Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta group.

Erik Jones - #43 AdventHealth/Dollar Tree/FamilyDollar/Allegiant Toyota
Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 28th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Jones has a better shot than his teammate Nemechek. Jones has pulled off the surprising victory before and runs well at difficult racetracks. Jones isn't going to make it on points. It will require winning a race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: As long as Darlington is on the schedule, Jones has a shot.

Tyler Reddick - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's/Jordan Brand/Chumba Casino Toyota
Team: 23XI Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019, 2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Reddick is a lock for the playoffs. Like so many others, it is a matter of how far can he go. Last year, Reddick was terrific but could not close it out with a championship. He led the way for Toyota, something a non-Joe Gibbs Racing has not done since the days of Martin Truex, Jr. at Furniture Row Racing. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are a great number of circuits Reddick can win at. One that he has yet to conquer in the Cup Series is Darlington. That is due to change at some point. 

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 SunnyD Chevrolet
Team: Hyak Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2023)
2025 Playoff Prospects: It might not be a new team in terms of the building, but it is a new team in name and it has lost a major sponsor. Hyak Motorsports' first days are a period of transition. Stenhouse, Jr. can win at Daytona and Talladega. He just won at Talladega in October. He has a shot, but a slimmer one than most.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. 

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Bowman is either about to be fired or he is going to win three races and people will think he is about to be fired. Bowman finds a way to pull off a victory or two and that will put him in the playoffs. He can hold his own against the more celebrated Hendrick teammates.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He can really win anywhere. Eight victories at eight different circuits and only two are similar (Chicagoland and Las Vegas). The rest are a two-mile oval (Fontana), Richmond, Dover, Pocono, Martinsville and the Chicago street course.

Cody Ware - #51 Jacob Companies Ford
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 36th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 14th (2023)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Harrison Burton won a race last year. Ware has a shot. He isn't going to be worthy of it, but it could happen... and then he would finish 16th in the championship and that will be in the record books forever.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.

Ty Gibbs - #54 Interstate Batteries/Monster Energy/SiriusXM Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 17th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Going into 2024, Gibbs looked on the precipice of his first career victory. His regular season started promising. His season ended on a downslide with five finishes of 30th or worse and only three top ten finishes in the final 16 races. Gibbs should get there, but his second half form is worrying.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gibbs' road course form is sneaky good. He had some good runs at Bristol in two seasons in the Cup Series. He maybe should have won Darlington last year.

Ryan Preece - #60 Kroger/Build Submarines/Castrol/Mohawk Northeast/Fastenal Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 26th 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2021)
2025 Playoff Prospects: This should be Preece's best chance of making the playoffs. He could be a contender on short tracks. Preece has never finished better than 23rd in the championship. He could be on his way for a personal best season. Playoffs is practical, but it will require some work.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: One must think it is a place like Martinsville, Richmond or Bristol. Iowa fits as well.

Michael McDowell - #71 GoBowling.com/B'laster/Workforce Chevrolet
Team: Spire Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)
2024 Playoff Prospects: We know McDowell can pick up a surprise victory on a few different track disciplines. He has moved to Spire, which showed competitiveness last season. McDowell might not do enough to contend on points, but one good race is not unthinkable.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are nine circuits that McDowell should feel good about, the six road courses and then Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. He has more opportunities than you would first think.

Carson Hocevar - #77 Zeigler Auto Group/Delaware Life/Gainbrige/Premier Security/MINER Chevrolet
Team: Spire Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 40th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: The reigning rookie of the year was a surprise 21st in the championship last year. He will need to take a step forward and his teammates got stronger this season. The gap on points will be a little bit too much to overcome. It will be down to winning one race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hocevar won at Texas and Homestead in the Truck Series. He had top ten finishes at those tracks last year in the Cup Series. 

Shane van Gisbergen - #88 WeatherTech/Red Bull Chevrolet
Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (12th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.
2025 Playoff Prospects: High since there are five road and street course races in the regular season. Van Gisbergen has the speed. If he can avoid mistakes not catch any unfortunate breaks, van Gisbergen can win and secure a playoff spot. If he doesn't win a road course race, van Gisbergen's playoff hopes are near zilch. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is the road courses.

Daniel Suárez - #99 Freeway Insurance/Worldwide Express/Quaker State/Kubota/Choice Privileges Chevrolet
Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2023)
2025 Playoff Prospects: If it wasn't for a victory in Atlanta, the second race of the season, Suárez would have been on the outside of a playoff spot. The cars can be good but the results do not always quite get there with Suárez. He will be a fringe contender.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Suárez has finished second, first and second in the last three Atlanta races.

Non-Chartered Teams

Corey LaJoie - #01 DuraMax/Take 5 Oil Ford
Team: Rick Ware Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: LaJoie will run a handful of races for Rick Ware Racing this season while also being a member of Amazon Prime's broadcast team.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is undetermined what LaJoie's races will be after Daytona.

Justin Allgaier - #40 Traveller Whiskey Chevrolet
Team: JR Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (1st in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2014)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Allgaier will be defending his championship in NASCAR's second division with JR Motorsports. This will be JR Motorsports' first attempt at a Cup race.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There will be plenty of races for Allgaier to win a division below this one.

J.J. Yeley - #44 NY Racing Team Chevrolet
Team: NY Racing Team
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (39th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2013)
2025 Playoff Prospects: It is unclear how many races NY Racing Team will attempt this season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, I guess.

Martin Truex, Jr. - #56 Bass Pro Shops Toyota
Team: TRICON Racing
2024 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)
2025 Playoff Prospects: At the moment, Truex, Jr. is only attempting the Daytona 500, and he has locked himself into the race after being the fastest Open entry in qualifying. He has expressed interest in running a few races, but the actual total is unknown, and there is no signs it will be more than one.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: I sense it is the Daytona 500 or bust for Truex, Jr. this year.

Possible Milestone: If Truex, Jr. were to win the Daytona 500, it would come in his 21st "500" start, the most before winning the event.

Anthony Alfredo - #62 Fortify Building Solutions Chevrolet
Team: Beard Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (15th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2024)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo ran a few races with Beard Motorsports last season, but he is only confirmed for Daytona at this moment.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Alfredo moves to the #42 Chevrolet for Young's Motorsports in NASCAR's second division this season. 

Chandler Smith - #66 Veterans Ranch Ford
Team: Garage 66
2024 Championship Finish: N/A (5th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.
2025 Playoff Prospects: Smith was a late change for the Garage 66 lineup after Mike Wallace was denied entry. This is a one-off for Smith.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Smith returns to the Truck Series to drive the #38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports full-time. 

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet
Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2024 Championship Finish: Ineligible (40th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)
2025 Playoff Prospects: McLeod only attempted the plate races last season in the Cup Series, and this year he will run those six events and the Coca-Cola 600.

Jimmie Johnson - #84 Carvana Toyota
Team: Legacy Motor Club
2024 Championship Finish: 37th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2006, 2013)
2025 Playoff Prospects: Johnson has plans to attempt only the Daytona 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. Johnson was the second-fastest Open entry in qualifying, and he has clinched his 22nd Daytona 500 start.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Charlotte.

Possible Milestone: Johnson is 2 starts away from 700-start milestone. 

Hélio Castroneves - #91 Wendy's Chevrolet
Team: Trackhouse
2024 Championship Finish: N/A (This will be his NASCAR debut)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.
2025 Playoff Prospects: Castroneves has a place locked up for the Daytona 500 as the first recipient of the Open Exemption Provisional. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Either the Daytona 500 or the Indianapolis 500, because those are the only races on Castroneves' schedule. Not a bad schedule to have in a season. 

Possible Milestones: Castroneves will become the fifth-oldest driver to make an Daytona 500 debut. He could also join Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 and Daytona 500.

Playoff Driver Predictions
1. Christopher Bell
2. Kyle Larson
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Tyler Reddick
5. Ryan Blaney
6. Chase Elliott
7. Joey Logano
8. Chris Buescher
9. Chase Briscoe
10. Alex Bowman
11. William Byron
12. Bubba Wallace
13. Brad Keselowski
14. Ty Gibbs
15. Kyle Busch
16. Shane van Gisbergen

The first Daytona 500 qualifying race will take place tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET with the second race scheduled to run at 8:45 p.m. ET. There will be a 50-minute practice on Friday February 14 at 5:35 p.m. ET. The 67th Daytona 500 will run at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday February 16.


Wednesday, February 12, 2025

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Team Penske

Eighteen days. A little more than two weeks until the NTT IndyCar Series season commences in St. Petersburg. We have been making our way through the IndyCar grid, covering race winners and the bottom of the grid, and a number of drivers in-between. That brings us to the most successful organization. 

Team Penske remained at the top even if it didn't finish first. Winning nearly half the races and most of the pole positions, Penske is setting the tone in IndyCar. It might be beaten, but it requires exceptional results to do so. That will be the same in 2025, but for as well as Team Penske did last year, it was far from a spectacular season. Questions have already been raised for what is to come next.

At First Glance... We aren't sure of the stability of the organization
It is Team Penske. It is fine, but for the last few years we have gone into a season waiting for change to come at the Penske organization, even if the results suggests nothing should. 

However, Will Power is in a contract year and has hired Fernando Alonso's management to representative him, the first time Power has had representation. 

Josef Newgarden is coming off a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 but also his worst championship finish. 

The only driver that feels safe for the long-term is Scott McLaughlin, who is coming off finishing third in the championship and has improved his championship finish every year he has been in IndyCar. 

It feels like we are waiting on that next major change at Team Penske. We arguably got it in a way with Tim Cindric stepping down from the role of team president to just focusing on the IndyCar portion of the organization. That isn't that much, but it is something for Team Penske.

Penske isn't afraid to making changes, even if faced with difficult choices. Will Power is three years removed from a championship. Power turns 44 years old in less than a month. He is two years older than Hélio Castroneves when Castroneves was removed from a full-time ride. The future investment in Power would not be a long-term one. Newgarden and McLaughlin are both in their 30s. The stage is set for a third driver that lowers the average and look forward to the next decade.

There is always the pressure to perform at Penske. The second you believe things are settled they are bound to change. Newgarden might have won at Indianapolis but you cannot finish eighth in the championship on a regular basis. It has only happened once. The Tennessean cannot afford for it to happen twice. McLaughlin may have improved in each season he has been in IndyCar, but that doesn't mean it has bought himself a mulligan year. Results must remain at that top level. 

The team will be fine. It is not going anywhere. It will be running at the front and winning races and likely have someone, if not multiple drivers, competing for a championship, but what the team looks like today, less than a month before the 2025 season opener, may be different from how it will look this time a year from now. It feels like change is around the corner.

2024 Team Penske Review
Wins: 8 (Barber, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Iowa I & II, Gateway, Portland, Milwaukee II)
Poles: 7 (St. Petersburg, Barber, Indianapolis 500, Iowa II, Gateway, Milwaukee I & II)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Scott McLaughlin), 4th (Will Power), 8th (Josef Newgarden)

Josef Newgarden - #2 Astemo/Hitachi/PPG Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
8: Oval victories since Newgarden's most recent road/street course victory (Road America 2022)

9: Results outside the top ten last season, his most since 11 in 2014

11: Times finishing worse than his starting position last season

What does a championship season look like for him?
Not finishing outside the top twenty in four or five races and Newgarden finishing first about two or three more times. It means finishing on the podium another four or five times. It would mean not tripping over themselves and coughing up positions on bad pit stops or lazy spins while running in the top five. 

Newgarden is going to need to win a few road and street course races. On those disciplines, he needs to qualify better, starting in the top six and turning those into finishes better than where he started. For as good as he is on ovals, last season we saw what happens when he is slightly off and is not unstoppable in oval races. Better road course form can make up for when he isn’t Superman at Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee.

We know Newgarden can do it. We have seen him do it twice. We have seen him come close to doing it another two or three times. It is not unthinkable he can be champion. He must figure out replicating the steps again.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
It is difficult to imagine Newgarden will be stubbing his toes as much as he did the year before. That solves part of the problem. Completely eradicating those off days isn't going to be the difference between eighth and first in the championship. Cleaning up those days likely only get him into the top five, but with work to do. What should go in his favor is Newgarden shouldn't lose another race victory due to a disqualification. 

Last year, we saw a human Newgarden. For how well he ran, we also saw him have bad days at Iowa, something that we haven't seen from him at the circuit in a decade. We saw him make mistakes and go over the edge. This was after Newgarden spoke about the importance of him focusing on his craft prior to the 2024 season.

It isn't completely gone. The ovals will be where he can score a great number of points. He is going to win at least one, likely twice, possibly three times. If he does that, a championship push is within reason. The road and street courses are where he must find where he was from 2017 to 2022. If Newgarden can win once or twice on road and street courses, his championship chances increase exponentially. 

To be fair to Newgarden, he went a decade between bad seasons in IndyCar, and the bad season he had last year included a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory. It is a matter of perspective and acknowledging that bad isn't always that bad. It isn't going to be easy for Newgarden to get back on top, but it is a plausible outcome for the 2025 season. 

Scott McLaughlin - #3 XPEL/Good Ranchers/Pennzoil Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
5: Pole positions last season, the most in IndyCar

3.7142: Average finish on ovals last season

637: Laps led last season, the most in IndyCar

What does a championship season look like for him?
Accordingly to last season, a championship season is everything he did last year, except not being disqualified from the St. Petersburg season opener after finishing third. That flip in results was the difference between McLaughlin and Álex Palou in the championship. If the season opener results remained unchanged and the rest of 2024 played out the same, McLaughlin would have won the title on tiebreaker. 

Of course, winning on tiebreaker is not what anyone wants to bank on. Winning on tiebreaker means you can likely be a little bit better. One position goes a long way. 

McLaughlin has 95% of it. It is cleaning up those few bad days. Some of those were not McLaughlin's fault. A mechanical issue can pop out of nowhere. Pencil one of those in a season, and then you know what you will need in the remaining 16 races. 

He can already win three races a season, and he can do it on both track disciplines. A championship might require another victory or two and a few more podium runs.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
McLaughlin is giving Newgarden a run for his money when it comes to oval form, especially on the shorter ovals. McLaughlin won at Iowa and Milwaukee. On both weekends, Newgarden struggled for speed. Insults was added to injury when Newgarden was taken out from pole position at the start of the second Milwaukee race.

If McLaughlin can clearly defeat Newgarden on ovals, it will set him up better in the championship fight. It is practical that McLaughlin could win four oval races. That would set him up nicely in the championship. Another one or two victories on road or street courses would be enough to put him over the top unless he has an absurd number of terrible finishes. 

In four full IndyCar seasons, McLaughlin has gone 14th, fourth, third and third. You cannot climb forward after every season. He has two more spots to play with. Maximizing his best can put McLaughlin that next step higher. With the competitiveness of this championship, McLaughlin can run stellar and lose a little ground. That is how tight it is at the top of IndyCar. Neither would be a disappointment. 

Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
22: Races since his most recent pole position (Iowa II 2023)

34: Races since his most recent pole position on a road/street course (Laguna Seca 2022)

68: Races since hist most recent victory from pole position (Harvest Grand Prix II 2020)

What does a championship season look like for him?
As a two-time champion, we know Power can win the title a few different ways. He can win a lot and control a championship by raising the bar on a near weekly basis. He can win once and just continue finishing third and fourth and make it frustrating to keep up. 

One area here Power must improve is his qualifying form. It sounds strange to say about Power, but a pole position or three can put him in control of a race from the start and that would set him up better for scoring points. 

Any championship season would not see Power stumbling into a few ruts and having multiple occasions where he isn't finishing in the top ten. It also means making sure the seatbelts are tight at the start of every race, especially the season finale when he has a shot at winning the title. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Anytime a driver has a winless season after the age of 40, it is concerning. Power had the proper rebound season to ease some tension last year with three victories and being alive for the championship into the season finale.

Three victories and four runner-up results is outstanding and rather surprising when that isn't enough to win a championship. I don't know if he can match that again, but we know he will have the capability to do so. 

It is likely Power will win a few pole positions. He might not be in his prime, but he has the skill to pull one or two of those out. He has what it takes to win a race or two, possible on a road course and an oval. 

The one thing that has followed Power over the last few seasons are the stumbles he has become prone to make in a season. The one year it didn't catch him, he won the championship, but what has cost him are the two-race stretches when he is 16th and 20th or 13th and 19th. They aren't the worst results, but they are enough ground lost to cost a driver a position or two in the championship. If one day happens, a second is usually not far behind. The third time is the charm, but Power cannot afford two bad races on the spin to win this championship. It is the one habit that he has trouble breaking.

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.


Tuesday, February 11, 2025

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Juncos Hollinger Racing

We are getting into the nitty-gritty of the IndyCar offseason. It is unclear when the postseason becomes the offseason and when the offseason becomes the preseason. It feels safe to say we are in that last phase. Only 19 days remain until the first race of the season. 

Juncos Hollinger Racing will be looking for improved results, and it will be doing it with an entirely new lineup. Two drivers in, two drivers out from how the team looked on this day one year ago. From a Trans-Atlantic partnership to an All-American duo, results aren't the only change the JHR operation will be looking for. It should be a little less controversial off the track as well.

At First Glance... It looks good on the outside, but performance is what counts
In come Sting Ray Robb and Conor Daly. Daly was already there, an interim solution at the end of the 2024 season that has turned into a permanent role. Daly got the #78 Chevrolet into the Leader Circle fund over the final five races of the season. It was enough to pass the audition. Robb is moving to his third team in three years. He brings a cushion of cash to comfort the program. 

On the outside, it is a safe lineup. Daly is the mouth of IndyCar, constantly running and hard to ignore. Robb brings a smile. They are a safe combination for a team. One will continuously sing praise about IndyCar. The other will be welcoming even on the worst days. It is a small thing but a mammoth change for the JHR group. 

For two seasons, it not only had to fight on the racetrack but had to deal with raging fires off the track due to the social media conduct surrounding one of its drivers. Twice it involved a teammate. Then it involved a partner and cost JHR a beneficial cooperative. Neither Daly nor Robb should pose those problem, but it is 2025 and the world is a tinderbox. Sneezing the wrong way could set the place ablaze. 

JHR will win over fanfare from its drivers for their personalities, but what determines how successful you are as a team is what is done on the racetrack. You can sign all the autographs and take all the photographs in the world but that doesn't really pays the bills in motorsports. At some point, you must succeed to warrant the interest from sponsors and investors. In its first three seasons as a full-time IndyCar team, success has been rare for this team. 

There have been glorious moments that show how competitive IndyCar can be where JHR has a car fighting in the final round of qualifying for pole position or finds itself in the top five late in a race. The problem is that is one or twice in a 17-race season. Most of the time, JHR goes unnoticed, and that isn't mentioning the two or three times it is noticed for a bad thing. 

It is year four and JHR has an experienced lineup. Though he hasn't been full-time even majority of the time, Daly has been in IndyCar for over a decade and has worked with a multitude of teams. He has gotten good results with less than perfect equipment. He has been in far worse situations. It is time to see a little more. 

We saw a little more in 2024, but not really enough. We must see even more than that in 2025. It isn't going to be consistent race victories and podium finishes, but JHR must make a step further into the middle. It has been living on the edge of the bottom third, which isn't the bottom but not a great place to be. It must put more daylight between it and last. This is the time to make up some ground. 

2024 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Milwaukee I)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 5th (St. Petersburg, Toronto)
Championship Finishes: 17th (Romain Grosjean), 26th (Conor Daly), 27th (Agustín Canapino)


Sting Ray Robb - #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
22.176: Average finish in 2023

19.176: Average finish in 2024

17.235: Average finish of Juncos Hollinger Racing entries over the last two seasons

What does a championship season look like for him?
Do you remember what I wrote for Devlin DeFrancesco

That! All that! 

Except Robb has improved and Juncos Hollinger Racing has made strides to take it ahead of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Chevrolet power proves to give Robb an advantage and plays a crucial role in deciding the oval races. With Robb finishing best in five of those six events, he can get away with another three victories in the road and street course events to eek out a championship that most ignore.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering that entering the 2025 season moving from A.J. Foyt Racing to Juncos Hollinger Racing would be considered a slight step down, it is hard to imagine how Robb will do better than last year, but then again, JHR's team average finish over the last two seasons is almost 3.5 positions better than Robb's career average finish, this isn't a massive leap back for the Idahoan. 

We have seen glimpses of speed with Juncos Hollinger Racing since it became a full-time IndyCar operation in 2022, but those glimpses have been rare, and they have come at the hands of some pretty skilled driver. Robb is not associated in the same class of drivers as Callum Ilott, Romain Grosjean and Conor Daly, and Daly is barely in the same class as the first two. 

JHR has been good, and Robb showed on the Road to Indy he improves with time. Every season he spent in the junior system was better than the previous one. That trend has stuck through his first two IndyCar seasons. Eventually, all things end. 

Robb might have been 20th in the drivers' championship, but the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet was 24th and did not finish inside the Leader Circle positions. A few drivers benefitted in the standings last season due to the number of cars that rotated entries midseason. Robb did pick up his first career top ten, but he still had seven finishes outside the top twenty and 14 finishes outside the top fifteen. 

The big change from 2023 to 2024 was Robb didn't have any finishes outside the top 25 last year after having four in 2023, including a 31st in Indianapolis, and he went from one top fifteen finish to three. Those incremental gains show up in an average finish improving three positions, but it is in average finish going from outside the top twenty to barely inside the top twenty. 

Those incremental gains could continue at JHR for Robb, or he will plateau. The latter is highly likely.

Conor Daly - #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
11: Teams in his IndyCar career

8: Daly has finished in the top ten for eight of those 11 teams

4: Of those teams he has finished in the top five with

What does a championship season look like for him?
Juncos Hollinger Racing being at its best at every round. 

It is producing a car that can make it out of the first round of qualifying on road and street courses in every race and pushing to make it to the final round majority of the time. With those advantageous starting positions, Daly is able to run regularly in the top ten. 

In that spot, when the JHR crew is on it, Daly is able to go forward, taking an eighth spot in the grid and turn it into a top five finish. Or taking a fifth grid spot and turning it into a podium run. With those kind of runs, Daly is further up the championship order than anyone would imagine from the start. 

Ovals are where Daly makes his money. On those days, Daly is a contender. He isn't working his way to get to the font, he is at the front and engaging in the chess game from the very beginning to maintain track position until the final stint. Based on his ability, Daly is able to over maneuver the competition and take victories. It all starts at Indianapolis. 

Daly's oval form is what carries him and complements his exceptional road and street course performances. Days where he is off and slips to ninth or out of the top ten are made up for with podium finishes on the ovals. Avoiding all trouble, Daly is able to put together the most unlikely of championship finishes.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Daly is a driver who has never finished better than 17th in the championship when he has competed full-time joining a team who has had an average finish of slightly worse than 17th over the last two seasons. 

They are perfect for one another! Oh, and let's not forget to mention JHR finished 17th in the championship last year with Romain Grosjean. Again, perfect. 

It can be better. Daly has done a good job getting more out of bad equipment, except at Ed Carpenter Racing. Results will require a little help from the strategist, something we have not seen JHR excel at. If Daly can get the car into a good position and the crew can formulate a strategy that can get that little extra, both Daly and JHR could improve. 

JHR had eight top ten finishes last season. Daly was responsible for two of them. The team can get some results. The problem is Daly has never had more than five top ten finishes in the season, and that was his rookie year. 

The team had a top ten finish in four of the final five oval races last year, which bodes well for Daly. It doesn't mean the batting average will be exactly where he wants it, but he should have some good results, and that will be the start. Three or four top ten finishes on ovals will set up well. If the road and street course form can come close to matching, Daly could be on the verge of breaking into the top fifteen.

Grosjean had six top ten finishes, one of which was a fourth at Laguna Seca, and he was still 37 points outside the top fifteen. Daly will need least two or three top five finishes and eight to ten top ten finishes on his own. That is a big ask. It will not be without a lack of effort.

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.


Monday, February 10, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: I Got Nothing

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl champions. Supercross saw a number of injuries. Jett Lawrence is out after tearing his ACL in Arizona. Eli Tomac is banged up. Hunter Lawrence was injured in his heat race from Tampa. Jorge Martín suffered a few fractures after a hair-raising accident testing in Sepang. NASCAR had a Hall of Fame ceremony. Dubai hosted a pair of races while the Asian Le Mans Series announced a return to Buriram for next season. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

I Got Nothing
It is the evening of Super Bowl Sunday, and I got nothing. 

I got some things. Bits of some things actually. It is really nothing though. 

Looking at this weekend for the last month or so, I didn't have anything on my mind. There were a few ideas that had been floating around surrounding the opening of 2025 and news broke that drew a response. There are a few things in the next few weeks that will come up and require a write up or at least take up some brain space. This weekend was one where I had nothing pinned down. There was no grand topic I wanted to touch, nor did anything stand out that was going to happen. 

Do I want to talk about promos? That can wait.

Do I want to talk about Mike Wallace? NASCAR's decision could warrant a response, but it is a singular issue and it will likely be forgotten soon. 

Do I want to talk about the Daytona 500? Eh. A preview is coming during the week. There is excitement for it. Controlled excitement as there will notable names fighting to make the race, but with this format it is not the most exciting. It is limited when 36 of 40 spots are locked up before a qualifying lap is run. 

I already spoke about the major NASCAR rule changes. Do I want to talk about the unnecessary point that will be awarded for fastest lap in each race? I think calling it unnecessary says enough. Who cares? When has fastest lap ever meant anything? Are drivers going to chase it? Unless a driver is three laps down in 28th, teams aren't going to be chasing it. If they are, who cares? They are running 28th and three laps down. 

Do I want to talk about all the money the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Museum made last week in auctions? 

A little bit. 

I get it. It made nearly $88 million selling two cars, a Mercedes-Benz W196R that Juan Manuel Fangio drove to a victory in a non-championship Buenos Aires Grand Prix and Stirling Moss used in the 1954 Italian Grand Prix, and the 1964 24 Hours of Le Mans winning Ferrari 250 LM. But boy, how do you sell those gems?

Apparently, both cars spent most of their time in storage. If you are upset about these being sold to private collectors and likely never seeing them again, well, they were already in a private collection and not on display for the general public. Nothing has changed in that sense other than someone else wanted it and paid the price for it. If you have $88 million in your basement, why is it in your basement? But, remember, you are not going to get possession of those cars again. 

The Mercedes was a gift from the manufacturer in 1965, in honor of the Speedway's contribution to motorsports and in honor of Mercedes' only Indianapolis 500 victory with Ralph DePalma 50 years earlier.

The Ferrari was purchased from Luigi Chinetti's North American Racing Team after its final race in 1970. 

I guess there was going to be a time to cash in. It doesn't mean it wasn't going to be difficult to decide. 

The museum, which re-opens this spring after being closed for over a year for renovations, has said it is re-focusing its collection on cars that competed in the Indianapolis 500 and at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

I understand focusing the collection, but it isn't a bad thing to have gems like this. Gems like this aren't going to be coming around again, whether it be something historic or a modern car that will soon become a piece of legend. Manufacturers aren't gifting these type of vehicles away. Audi isn't giving up R8s, R10s or R15s. Red Bull isn't going to be leaving a present on the doorstep at 16th and Georgetown. There is a point of cherishing what you have and think twice before you give up something special. 

I don't know if the museum could have found a different way to make $52 million on the Mercedes and nearly $36 million on the Ferrari while retaining possession. With cars like that, you should find a way to get those on the floor permanently. Those aren't irrelevant race cars. That isn't the 21st-place finisher in the 1983 Indianapolis 500. These are cars of consequence, pieces of art compared to most of the products of the 2020s, not mass-produced spec chassis. They might not have raced at Indianapolis, but their importance far exceeds this place and it is good to show that to everyone who passes through those doors. 

These aren't the only cars the IMS museum is selling. At the end of the month, in Miami, it is selling a Ford GT40 Mk II, a Benetton B191 that Michael Schumacher drove in the 1992 South Africa Grand Prix and the Spirit of America Sonic I, which set the land speed record of 600.601 mph at Bonneville in 1965, among a number of other vehicles. 

Again, it is hard to turn down $88 million. The Speedway is likely going to add another $30 million for selling the rest of these cars in Miami. Considering the museum has been closed since November 2023, forgoing whatever revenue it draws from 363 days of tickets at $15, and the renovation cost $89 million, making over $110 million clearing the basement is a no-brainer, but just consider what is being sold and that you will never get it again.

I guess I had something on my mind after all. Something from nothing I guess. I will do better next week.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Super Bowl, but did you know...

The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca of Malthe Jakobsen, Michael Jensen and Valerio Rinicella won the first 4 Hours of Dubai. The #26 Bretton Racing Ligier of Jens Reno Møller, Theodor Jensen and Griffin Peebles won in LMP3. The #96 2 Seas Motorsport Ben Barnicoat, Anthony McIntosh and Parker Thompson won in GT.

The #20 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca of Olli Caldwell, Kriton Lendoudis and Alex Quinn won the second 4 Hours of Dubai. The #15 RLR Sport Ligier of Nick Adcock, Ian Aguilera and Chris Short won in LMP3. The #99 Herberth Motorsport Porsche of Ralf Bohn, Alfred Renauer and Robert Renauer won in GT.

Malcolm Stewart won the Supercross race from Tampa, his first career victory in his 109th career start. Max Anstie won the 250cc class.

Coming Up This Weekend
The 67th Daytona 500
Formula E is back for its third round, its first doubleheader of the season, in Jeddah.
Asian Le Mans Series ends its 2024-25 season with a doubleheader at Yas Marina.
The World Rally Championship plays in the snows of Sweden.
Supercross heads to Detroit. 


Friday, February 7, 2025

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Andretti Global

Twenty-three days are all that remains until IndyCar begins its 2025 season in St. Petersburg, and one team that has a good track record at St. Petersburg is the Andretti Global organization. Ranking second all-time in St. Petersburg victories, a great start in Florida could put the three-car operation in a stellar spot as it looks to get back on top of the series as a whole.

The driver lineup has been retained from 2024, a year where Andretti improved from the previous few seasons. With multiple victories and a driver that finished second in the championship, the promised land appears to be close. There are a few areas where the team can still improve, and if it does, a championship is reasonable, but that last bit is the toughest to get.

At First Glance... Andretti always feels like it is about to make that next step but falls short
Thirteen years flew by. That is how long it has been since the Andretti organization has won a championship. During that interim, the team has swung through the highs and the lows. It was lost in the early days of the manufacturer-specific aero kits but rallied in the early days of the universal aero kit. 

Things started well when the aeroscreen was introduced, but then the team took a two-year dive. In 2024, Andretti climbed up the order, and the introduction of the hybrid did not shock the system. Andretti ended last year on a high note and was respectable across the board. 

Last year wasn't a case where Andretti was only good on street courses but lost on ovals. It won on both. It had a podium finish at Laguna Seca and top five finishes at Mid-Ohio and Portland. Andretti was competitive across the board. There is room to improve, but the team is starting 2025 in a good spot. 

However, good spots have been wasted before. 

The title should have gone to the team in 2018 with Alexander Rossi. One caution in Portland swung everything out of Rossi and Andretti's control and into Scott Dixon's. It was a close call and hopes were high. However, Rossi and Andretti could not re-create that championship push. 

Colton Herta has been the future of IndyCar since 2019. That was only accelerated when he won in his third career start weeks prior to his 19th birthday. Herta went through the rookie hardships, but he worked through those growing pains and ended up third in the championship in his sophomore year. The 2021 season saw a few more growing pains, but he ended that year with two consecutive victories, and it felt like 2022 was due to be Herta and Andretti's year. 

Instead, Herta only won once in the next 45 races, and he could not finish better than tenth in the championship. 

We have been here before. Andretti has made a step, a notable one, it is on the door step, but recent history suggests we are about to enter the stage where Andretti trips. There are no signs it is about to go wrong, but that was the case entering 2015, 2019 and 2022 as well. For years we have been expecting Andretti to return to its former glory and fulfill the "Big Three" narrative in an IndyCar championship that pits it against Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing for 17 races. That hasn't come close to being consistent for most of the last decade.

It is understandable to think this time will be different. Andretti Global has done all the right things. It is entering 2025 with a proven lineup, and there are not question marks. These are three capable drivers, all past winners who could likely do it again, and we saw these three combine to turn Andretti around in 2024. Now, these three must take the team that next step forward, a tricky task to complete. 

2024 Andretti Global Review
Wins: 2 (Toronto, Nashville)
Poles: 4 (Detroit, Iowa, Toronto, Nashville)
Championship Finishes: 2nd (Colton Herta), 7th (Kyle Kirkwood), 15th (Marcus Ericsson), 43rd (Marco Andretti)

Colton Herta - #26 Gainbridge Honda
Numbers to Remember:
305 - Laps led last season, the third-most in IndyCar

11 - Races led last season, the most in IndyCar

10 - Top five finishes last season, Herta's most in a season

What does a championship season look like for him?
Everything that went right in 2024 to go right again in 2025, and those few things that went wrong to be turned around. That goes for the driver and the team.

Herta was 32 points off a championship in 2024. Those 32 points can be found in not spinning out of the Indianapolis 500 while running second. Instead of finishing 23rd, Indianapolis could have been a second-place finish or a sixth-place finish. That is a 21-33 point swing right there.

Instead of finishing 19th at Detroit after being shuffled back in a pit cycle due to a caution and running into the barrier, Herta could be on the right side of that caution or at least be more patient and work his way to seventh or eighth, not as great as it could have been, but not terrible either, and netting him at least 15 more points. 

Instead of finishing 22nd at Milwaukee because the left front tire was not secured on a pit stop, Herta's team could make sure the tire is on and he could finish fifth and pick up 22 more points. 

In three races, Herta left about 58-70 points on the table, more than enough to swing a championship. Minimizing these days where a dozen points or more slip through his fingers can be the deciding factor.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is realistic. Herta ended up second in the championship last year in a season where I think most would have considered him the fifth-best driver, but his results were unappreciated. 

Herta won twice, both in convincing fashion. He dominated Toronto and his Nashville victory after driving down Patricio O'Ward was stuff of legend. Herta stood on the podium after three of the four street races, and he probably should have won the fourth if it wasn't for the disjoined nature of the Detroit race. His oval form made a big leap and two of his three non-top ten finishes on ovals come down to things out of his control as a driver. Other than maybe finding a little more speed on the natural-terrain road courses, Herta does not need to do much more.

It is highly realistic Herta can win four races, pick up nine podium finishes and have 12 top five finishes with only two results outside the top ten and both those still be top fifteen results. That is more than enough to win a championship in 2025. 

But as we have seen with Herta and the Andretti organization, as plausible it is for him to come out on top, we must remember there is a season where he only finishes on the podium twice, gets six or seven top five finishes, but has four results of 20th or worse, and that drops him down to ninth.

Kyle Kirkwood - #27 Chili's Honda
Numbers to Remember:
8.7059: Average finish last season, the fourth-best in IndyCar

13: Top ten finishes last season, tied for the most with Álex Palou

8: Top ten finishes in Kirkwood's career entering the 2024 season

What does a championship season look like for him?
Being a little bit better than how Kirkwood was in 2024, which was pretty good. Through the first ten races, his worse finish was 11th. He had three top five finishes, but he had no podium results. That is good, but nobody would consider that great. 

It starts with turning some of those fourth and fifth-place finishes into podium results, and likely a victory or two. it is turning those finishes of seventh and tenth into finishes of fourth and sixth.

To start the season, instead of having three consecutive top ten finishes, he has three consecutive top five finishes with one of those being a victory. Another start of nine top ten finishes in the first ten races sees at least two of those results be victories and half of those results be podium finishes. 

Kirkwood's oval form also takes a leap forward. He has the speed to run in the top five and he pulls out at least a victory or two on that disciple as well. Four victories across the spectrum of track disciplines and eight podium results with a dozen top five finishes puts Kirkwood in championship territory. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is not an absurd notion for Kirkwood, but it requires a little more convincing than Herta’s case. In 2023, we saw what he can do when the speed is there and he is at the front. He can win races, but on off days, he struggled to breakthrough. In 2024, we saw Kirkwood find better consistency and remain in the top third of the field more, though we did not see him breakthrough for another victory. 

If he can combine 2023 and 2024 in 2025, he has an outside shot at the championship. 

He has already won twice in a single season. Getting another victory would not be a surprise at this point, and it would likely come on a street course, though there are a few road courses that suit him well. His oval form got better last year, and it could take a step this year. It will be the toughest place for him to defeat the competition, but it is an area where he could get more top five results.

As excited as we should be that Andretti Global could have two drivers finish in the top five in the championship, that is something this team has done once since reunification. It is realistic to think Herta and Kirkwood can both pick up at least one victory, both could be on the podium five times and have at least eight top five finishes. It is difficult to believe that is how it will really play out. 

Marcus Ericsson - #28 Bryant Honda
Numbers to Remember:
20.857: Average finish on ovals last season and this is with two top ten finishes on ovals

15.176: Average finish over the entire 2024 season, Ericsson's worst average finish in an IndyCar season

13.294: Average starting position last season, his worst since his rookie season in 2019

What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with six glorious oval races. Six races where Ericsson is not scoring single-digit point totals and that is the spine of his season. He is in the top ten of all of those races, in the top five in at least two or three and he wins one. The mechanical issues do not bite him either, especially when he is on a top ten run. 

In his first six seasons in IndyCar, we know Ericsson's best is when he is consistent and pick up points when others are throwing them away. He is not the type of driver that is going to win five to six races in a season and go on a tear. It is a methodical accumulation of points, constantly finishing fifth or sixth with those few races where he jumps up the order and steals a handful more. 

To be champion though, those great days must be more than once or twice. 

For Ericsson to be champion, he must find a way to win at least three races. He must be on the podium at least six or seven times. He can still finish fifth or sixth in six or seven races, but however many races he finishes in the middle of the top ten, he must at least match in podium results. 

Any Marcus Ericsson championship season ends with us in awe of his consistency that doesn't look stunning but is rather calculated and it is difficult to beat.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Better than last year that is for sure.

Some drivers get these snakebitten seasons where a half-dozen races go against them in the same way and it only happens to one driver. Ericsson is not going to have five oval races where he finishes 23rd or worse happen again. He is not going to have a handful of races where he is in an incident early. If you make those five races finishes of 13th, Ericsson scores about 45 more points and he is 11th in the championship. That is just by being squarely in the middle of the field on ovals. Ericsson will be better than that. 

Year two with the Andretti organization will see Ericsson find his legs. Things will click, and the results will get there. The team's pace is where all Ericsson needs is it for to click for him to be competitive. He can find himself in a position to win a race or two and be a regular top ten finisher. 

Andretti Global is setup to have three drivers that finish in the top ten of the championship. All three of these drivers could win a race. It doesn't normally work out that way, but it is realistic. Of the three drivers, Ericsson is the least confident I feel about winning a race, mostly because he has yet to dominate an IndyCar race in his first six seasons. He has four career victories, but he has never led the most laps in a race and only once has he led more than a quarter of the laps in a race. 

Two of Ericsson's victories have come when he has led five laps or fewer and on both occasions the leader had a mechanical issue while Ericsson was in second. 

We know Ericsson can win, but mostly because he has put himself in a position to capitalize on misfortune, not because he has taken control. At some point, he must have a race where it is his and no one can take it away from him. If that doesn’t happen soon, it is fair to wonder if he has that ability to definitively be the man to beat.

Even if he doesn't win, the table is set for him to get four or five top five finishes and a dozen top ten finishes, which should be enough to crack the championship top ten.

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.



Wednesday, February 5, 2025

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

February is here and there will be an official IndyCar practice session this month. That practice session is 23 days away, and the first race from St. Petersburg is 25 days down the road. We hit the halfway point of our IndyCar team previews with a team stuck in the middle.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing was winning races and looked liked an outside championship threat not long ago. Entering 2025, RLLR has been on a back slide, and it is coming off a disappointing 2024 that ended with its once prized driver leave for a rival outfit. The lineup did not strengthen heading into the new season, but all it can do is hope some changes can lead to better outcomes.

At First Glance... It is difficult to be confident in strong results
This is not a murder's row Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is bringing to the track.

Its lead driver is Graham Rahal, entering year 19 in IndyCar, but coming off an 18th-place championship finish, his worst since 2014. It was the fourth consecutive season Rahal has finished worse in the championship than the year before. He had no top five finishes in a season for the first time ever, and it has been over seven-and-a-half years since he has won a race. 

The second driver is Louis Foster, the reigning Indy Lights champion after a dominating season where he won eight races and didn't finish worse than second over the final 11 races. A good track record but Indy Lights champions don't have a great track record in IndyCar. Only three of the previous 11 champions are presently full-time in IndyCar. 

Driver #3 is Devlin DeFrancesco, who sat out the entire 2024 season except for the five IMSA Endurance Cup rounds in a pro-am GTD Lamborghini. In his two IndyCar seasons, DeFrancesco did not register a top ten finish and he enters this season tied for the third-most starts in IndyCar history without a top ten finish.

Why should we feel confident this team will improve after it lost Christian Lundgaard, who finished eighth and 11th in the championship the previous two seasons and pulled out a victory in Toronto in 2023? 

Foster is the one bright spot, but it will take more than his talent to be respectable. The team must be behind him and supply cars good enough for him to maximize his ability. RLLR has had good runs and it had something with Lundgaard, but that top form on a consistent basis was tougher to come by in the later stages of last season, and it was only Lundgaard reaching that level. 

It hasn't even been five years since RLLR won the Indianapolis 500, but the team's oval form has been woeful to say the least. Those six races look like six blackholes where RLLR will be nowhere to be seen. Indianapolis is still a danger zone. It has had at least one car start on the 11th and final row in three consecutive years. The team made strides last year, but not big ones and Graham Rahal was in danger of being bumped for a consecutive year.

Rahal has turned it around before. After being 19th in the 2014 season and then losing National Guard sponsorship, Rahal rebounded to be a championship-contender in 2015, only for two accidents in the final two races to end his dream season and knock him down to fourth in the final championship results despite being at least the second-best driver the entire year. 

But that was ten years ago and unless that spark is found a decade later, we are not going to see something magically all over again.

The team couldn't break the top ten in the championship last year, and it is not better situated heading into 2025. This is set to be a long season, and an eye-opener but one that will not surprise anyone.

2024 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 2nd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 11th (Christian Lundgaard), Graham Rahal (18th), Devlin DeFrancesco (19th), Takuma Sato (37th), Jüri Vips (39th)

Graham Rahal - #15 Fifth Third Bank/United Rentals Honda
Numbers to Remember:
20: Consecutive races without a top five finish entering this season

124: Consecutive races without a victory entering this season, currently tied for the longest streak for most race between victories, which Rahal holds between his first career victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and Fontana in 2015

16.142: Average finish in seven oval races last season with four finishes of 20th or worse

What does a championship season look like for him?
IndyCar making a drastic change to the calendar with 14 races being moved to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, the one track RLLR has been consistently good at over the last few seasons. Adding those 14 races to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis means 15 races would happen on the same circuit. The other two races that would be untouched are the Indianapolis 500 and Mid-Ohio, RLLR's home race just to give them something to shoot for. 

With 15 races on the IMS road course, Rahal has many opportunities to pull off victories after a staggering number of close calls and mostly losing to Scott Dixon. With 15 IMS road course races, Rahal wins four of them, finishes on the podium nine times and he has 12 top five finishes. He has a good day at Mid-Ohio and his Indianapolis 500 is not great, but better than it has been and somehow Rahal wins what is actually a nightmare of a championship scenario for IndyCar.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Rahal should be better than 18th as he was in 2024. Marginally better results will only see marginal gains in the championship, but it is something. A top five result could happen, but great likelihood is Rahal turns some of those 11th and 15th-place finishes in something a little bit better. There is also the case where oval results are not great but better than they were, and that would boost his championship points total.

A year with one top five finish or possibly no top five finishes but eight or nine top ten finishes will feel a little better. It will not show for much, as it might get him back to 13th or 14th in the championship. 

Devlin DeFrancesco - #30 EV Tec Honda
Numbers to Remember:
43: Most starts without a top ten finish in IndyCar history (Milka Duno)

42: Most starts before a first career top ten finish in IndyCar history (Marco Greco)

14: Finishes outside the top twenty in 34 career starts.

What does a championship season look like for him?
A meteor wiping out 90% of the IndyCar grid but a championship still taking place despite all that remains are DeFrancesco, Kyffin Simpson and Sting Ray Robb. This three-car championship comes down to which father can spend more. 

It is actually a very close race and the ebbs and flows are startling. Each driver would make big leaps out of nowhere during the season and end up on top. However, when it comes down to raw ability, DeFrancesco has an edge over Simpson and Robb and he is able to win majority of the races and become champion.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
DeFrancesco had some good runs with Andretti Autosport, especially in his second season. The strange thing is DeFrancesco finished a position better in the championship in his second year but scored 29 fewer points. 

A top ten finish will be tough, but crazier things have happened in IndyCar. The stars can align to allow DeFrancesco to finish ninth or tenth on a hectic day where he keeps his nose clean and many do not. It would not be on a regular basis, there is a good chance it would not happen more than once, but it is possible. 

One top ten finish will not account for much, and considering what Pietro Fittipaldi could get out of this entry, top twenty in the championship feels like the limit for DeFrancesco. Fittipaldi was 19th because four entries had multiple drivers rotate through. The #30 Honda was 23rd in the entrants' championship. If DeFrancesco cracks the top twenty, it was a good year. If he is 22nd or 23rd, he at least didn't take a step back from his predecessor.

Louis Foster - #45 Mi-Jack Honda
Numbers to Remember:
13: Christian Lundgaard's average finish in the #45 Honda last season

7: Top five finishes for Christian Lundgaard in 52 starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

4: Of those top five finishes were at the IMS road course

What does a championship season look like for him?
Foster picking up where he left off in Indy Lights. St. Petersburg is a top five finish almost out of nowhere and he follows it up with a tenth in Thermal and a ninth in Long Beach. Barber Motorsports Park is not a great race as he finishes 14th, but at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Foster gets his first career podium finish in third.

The Indianapolis 500 is a struggle, and it is the same old, same old for RLLR, but through smart driving, Foster finishes 15th. Detroit is a standout performance and he qualifies in the Fast Six. He spends the entire race in the top five and he finishes on the podium again. Though there are some concerns about Gateway, Foster has a good drive to ninth that does not look like much at the time. 

The summer is where Foster comes alive. Road America is the location of his first career victory, a stunner of sorts as he starts third and spends the entire race in third before essentially replicating Will Power's drive in 2024 and jumps ahead of the top two in the final pit cycle. The dream continues into Mid-Ohio. Foster puts RLLR on the front row for its home race and he pulls off a second victory again through leaping ahead of the leader during the final pit cycle.

Iowa is a rough patch. Foster finishes 14th and 11th over those two races, but RLLR has another stellar weekend in Toronto. Foster scores his first career pole position and he wins. At Laguna Seca, Foster qualifies on pole position and he wins. At Portland, Foster qualifies fifth and finishes third. 

Heading into the final two races, both on ovals, Foster has four victories, seven podium finishes and eight top five finishes. With hopes low, RLLR has its best two oval weekends in quite some time. Foster is able to qualify in the top ten at both Milwaukee and Nashville, and he is able to climb his way forward in each race, finishing fourth at Milwaukee and sixth at Nashville, enough to squeak out a championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
As we saw with Lundgaard, RLLR can have good days. That wasn't all because of Lundgaard. He likely had some better results than if you put the most average driver in the seat, but some of it was because the car was decent and he could get the most of it. 

Foster is not Lundgaard and he will not be challenging for victories. Foster could match or beat his senior teammate Rahal. It could be a regular thing where those two are right next to each other on track and some weekends Foster is quicker and other weeks Rahal is better. It does feel like Foster could be the one who gets the edge more than not. 

With fresh eyes, Foster could get more out of a car where it has been difficult to find a solution. Without being beaten down over the previous two seasons, Foster can work through the hard times a little better and get more positive results out of them. 

RLLR is set up to be a team where one car finishes between 12th and 15th in the championship, the second car is going to finish between 16th and 20th, and DeFrancesco ends up between 20th and 27th. It all comes down to whether or not Foster is comfortable enough in a new car to beat Rahal and get the edge, or if Rahal's experience will be the deciding factor and he will lead the team, but Foster will not be far off. 

Five to seven top ten finishes is the target Foster should be looking for. 

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.