Let's Look at the League - July 2025

NASCAR is at the end of its own head-to-head experiment, but in the hypothetical world we have been living in with IndyCar for the better part of a decade now, we are approaching the end. Another season is almost over. The playoffs are right around the corner. 

Laguna Seca would set the eight drivers competing for a championship. A few spots are already locked up, but the final spots would come down to the final week. It would also set the which teams will be in the relegation playoff, which teams would be relegated from League One, and who would be still be alive in the promotion playoff.

How do we look heading into the final weekend of July?

League One

Each conference would be heading into this weekend with multiple playoff spots still on the line. The top of each conference would still be in play. Not that it matters for more than seeding, but pride is at stake as well. It would technically be the final weekend for the relegation battle, but those spots were wrapped up before we could get to the final weekend of the regular season.

Results

	Conference One	Conference Two
Week 10 (Mid-Ohio)	#10 CGR def. #60 MSR (2-6)	#26 Andretti def. #45 RLLR (4-14)
	#7 McLaren def. #12 Penske (5-21)	#14 Foyt def. #3 Penske  (16-23)
	#5 McLaren def. #15 RLLR (5-24)	#9 CGR def. #6 McLaren (1-11)
	#28 Andretti def. #2 Penske (12-27)	#27 Andretti def. #21 ECR (8-25)
Week 11 (Iowa)	#10 CGR def. #7 McLaren (5-21)	#14 Foyt def. #26 Andretti (8-13)
	#12 Penske def. #60 MSR (3-17)	#3 Penske def. #45 RLLR (4-14)
	#5 McLaren def. #28 Andretti (1-15)	#21 ECR def. #9 CGR (6-10)
	#2 Penske def. #15 RLLR (2-11)	#6 McLaren def. #27 Andretti (24-26)
Week 12 (Iowa)	#10 CGR def. #2 Penske (1-10)	#26 Andretti vs. #27 Andretti
	#5 McLaren def. #12 Penske (5-24)	#9 CGR def. #3 Penske (2-26)
	#7 McLaren def. #15 RLLR (6-19)	#14 Foyt def. #6 McLaren (15-27)
	#60 MSR def. #28 Andretti (7-22)	#21 ECR def. #45 RLLR (8-14)
Week 13 (Toronto)	#5 McLaren def. #10 CGR (1-12)	#26 Andretti def. #9 CGR (4-10)
	#12 Penske def. #2 Penske (11-24)	#27 Andretti def. #3 Penske (6-26)
	#28 Andretti def. #7 McLaren (5-13)	#21 ECR def. #14 Foyt (20-27)
	#15 RLLR def. #60 MSR (7-19)	#6 McLaren def. #45 RLLR (18-21)
Week 14 (Laguna Seca)	#10 CGR vs. #12 Penske	#26 Andretti vs. #3 Penske
	#5 McLaren vs. #2 Penske	#9 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
	#7 McLaren vs. #60 MSR	#14 Foyt vs. #45 RLLR
	#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR	#21 ECR vs. #6 McLaren

Conference One Standings

#10 Ganassi 11-2

#5 McLaren 11-2
#12 Penske 7-6

#7 McLaren 6-7
#60 Meyer Shank 6-7

#28 Andretti 6-7
#2 Penske 3-10
#15 RLLR 2-11

Entering the final weekend, we know either the #10 Ganassi entry or the #5 McLaren will be the #1-seed. If the #10 Ganassi wins over the #12 Penske at Laguna Seca, it will be the #1-seed. Thanks to Álex Palou's seven victories, he owns the tiebreaker in the #10 Ganassi. 

It is rather tight for the final two playoff spots. Will Power has the #12 Penske in a good spot, but it could get messy with a loss and a few different results. The #7 McLaren vs. #60 MSR matchup will eliminate one team. The loser will be done and cannot make the playoffs. The #28 Andretti will need to win to remain alive over the #15 RLLR.

Unfortunately, the #15 RLLR entry clinched relegation when it lost the second Iowa race. While the #15 RLLR could finish level with the #2 Penske, the #2 Penske beat the #15 RLLR in both its matchups and owns the tiebreaker.

The #2 Penske though will be guaranteed a spot in the relegation playoff and it will need to win at least once over two weeks in either Portland or Milwaukee.

Conference Two Standings

#27 Andretti 10-3

#26 Andretti 10-3

#9 Ganassi 7-6

#6 McLaren 7-6
#14 Foyt 6-7

#3 Penske 6-7
#21 ECR 4-9
#45 RLLR 2-7

Like Conference One, the top two are tied. One will be the #1-seed and the other will be the #2-seed after this weekend. 

Four teams are competing for two spots. The #9 CGR and the #6 McLaren are currently holding those final two spots. A win in the final week will secure their playoff spots. The #14 Foyt and #3 Penske entries must win and get some help in the final weekend. 

Incredibly, none of those four entries are facing each other in the final weekend. There is a chance all four could end up tied on 7-7. What would that mean? We would take those four teams and rank them by record in their six matchups, which looks like the following. 

#9 CGR 4-2  (1-1 vs. #14 / 2-0 vs. #6 / 1-1 vs. #3)

#14 Foyt 3-3 (1-1 vs #9 / 1-1 vs #3 / 1-1 vs #6)

#6 McLaren 3-3 (2-0 vs. #3 / 0-2 vs. #9 / 1-1 vs. #6)

#3 Penske 2-4 (0-2 vs. #14 / 1-1 vs. #14 / 1-1 vs. #9)

Looking at it, the #9 CGR is sitting pretty. It owns the tiebreaker over everyone. Even in the ties, Scott Dixon owns the tiebreakers because Dixon has a victory and two runner-up finishes while the other three have a combined zero victories and Santino Ferrucci's best finish is second while Scott McLaughlin's best finish is third. 

Ferrucci owns the tiebreaker at the moment over the #6 McLaren and the #3 Penske based on best finish. For either the #6 McLaren and #3 Penske to make the playoffs if tied with the #14 Foyt, they will likely need to win Laguna Seca outright. 

In the last three weeks, the #21 ECR has gone 3-0, and Christian Rasmussen jumped the #45 RLLR, which has lost seven consecutive weeks, and the #45 RLLR entry was relegated with a week to spare.

League Two

Since we last spoke, League Two's regular season has concluded, but we knew those promotion spots were clinched when we last spoke. The #4 Foyt entry and the #66 Meyer Shank Racing entry had secured spots in League One for 2026 before we even got to July 2025! All that was on the line was seeding for the second phase of the League Two season that leads to the promotion playoff. 

Results

Week 10 (Mid-Ohio)	#8 CGR def. #83 Prema (10-21)
	#4 Foyt def. #77 JHR (17-18)
	#66 MSR def. #76 JHR (7-19)
	#90 Prema def. #20 ECR (13-15)
	#18 Coyne def. #30 RLLR (9-20)
Week 11 (Iowa)	#8 CGR def. #90 Prema (18-23)
	#76 JHR def. #77 JHR (7-22)
	#83 Prema def. #20 ECR (20-25)
	#30 RLLR def. #51 Coyne (19-27)
	#4 Foyt def. #18 Coyne (12-16)

League Two Standings

#4 Foyt 10-0

#66 MSR 9-1

#8 Ganassi 7-3

#20 ECR 5-5

#76 JHR 5-5

#18 Coyne 5-5
#83 Prema 5-5

#90 Prema 4-6

#30 RLLR 3-7

#51 Coyne 1-9

#77 JHR 1-9

The #4 Foyt and #66 MSR were already promoted. The next eight teams advanced to phase two, which leads to the promotion playoff for the final spot in League One. The #77 JHR did not qualify as its only loss was to the #51 Coyne entry. 

We snake the remaining eight teams into two groups for the round robin. Here are the standings through two of the three matches in the group stage.

Group A

#18 Coyne 1-1

#8 Ganassi 1-1

#83 Prema 1-1

#51 Coyne 1-1

Iowa #2

#51 Coyne def. #8 CGR (11-13)

#83 Prema def. #18 Coyne (9-12)

Toronto

#8 CGR def. #83 Prema (3-16)

#18 Coyne def. #51 Coyne (2-23)

Laguna Seca

#8 CGR vs. #18 Coyne

#83 Prema vs. #51 Coyne

Group B

#76 JHR 2-0

#20 ECR 1-1

#90 Prema 1-1

#30 RLLR 0-2

Iowa #2

#20 ECR def. #30 RLLR (17-25)

#76 JHR def. #90 Prema (16-21)

Toronto

#90 Prema def #20 ECR (8-25)

#76 JHR def. #30 RLLR (15-22)

Laguna Seca

#20 ECR vs. #76 JHR

#90 Prema vs. #30 RLLR

Group A is easy. The two winners at Laguna Seca advance to the promotion playoffs.

Group B has a few scenarios. If the #20 ECR wins and the #90 Prema wins at Laguna Seca, we will have three teams at 2-1 after the all beat up the #30 RLLR and they each defeated each other once. The #76 JHR has the best finish at sixth while the #20 ECR and #90 Prema each have the same best finish of eighth, but the #20's next best result is ninth while the #90's next best is 13th.

If the #76 JHR wins and the #30 RLLR wins at Laguna Seca, we will have three teams at 1-2 after the #76 JHR beat every other team and the other three all defeated each other once. We know the #20 ECR holds the tiebreaker as the #30 RLLR's best finish is 11th.

Each group winner and group runner-up will advance to the semifinals at Portland. The promotion finale will be at Milwaukee.

We will recap the final four weeks once it is all over in September.