Palou was opening that gap in the final stint, and he was up four seconds, until six laps to go. Palou ran wide exiting turn eight, and in an effort to keep the car out of the grass and potentially being thrown into the barrier, the Catalan driver slowed, but it allowed Scott Dixon to blast through to the lead. It set up a five-lap battle for the victory with Palou having the advantage of fresher tires and a lighter car. Unfortunately, once the door was open, Dixon was never going to give it up.
It proved to be about a 4.5-second mistake, because Dixon held on to take his 59th career victory, his first of the season and his seventh at Mid-Ohio, by 0.4201 seconds over Palou. It was a Chip Ganassi Racing 1-2 finish, but in the order we did not see coming with only a handful of laps remaining.
Is this one of the luckiest victories of Dixon's career? An honorable man would acknowledge the fortune, but Dixon still had to make a two-stop strategy work. He got there on the first stint. On the second stint, he made sure to keep Palou honest, and Dixon did not lose chunks of time. Dixon still had to be there to capitalize if a mistake happened. A mistake occurred, and Dixon punished Palou for doing so.
I was getting nervous this week about Dixon and his streak of seasons with at least one victory. With how good Palou has been, I was finding it difficult to see where Dixon could win. This felt like the prime race, but Palou is also really good at Mid-Ohio. I didn't feel good about Toronto. Palou has been outstanding at Laguna Seca, and Palou thrashes the field at Portland. That left the four oval races, and those are bigger wild cards because we have seen smaller teams run competitively at ovals, and it is just a lower chance at victory for everyone let alone Dixon.
I am glad it happened now because I am not sure a greater opportunity would have come up for Dixon, as unexpected an opportunity this turned out to be.
2. You know what sucks? I had this lovely opening applauding Álex Palou's brilliance, and it is still brilliance, but of all times for him to make a mistake and in all positions to make a mistake, I don't think anyone would have scripted this one. Palou was gone! Why would we think he would drive off the road? Hey, he is human!
This should have been a victory for Palou. We should have been talking about a seventh victory in ten races. We should have been talking about the single-season record for victories coming clearer into view. We should have mentioned that a driver with a 70% winning percentage just needed a 57.152% winning percentage over the final seven races to etch his name in history. A 60% winning percentage through ten races still puts Palou on track for a record, but the margin of error is gone.
It sucks because this was a special race from Palou. His antepenultimate stint should still be spotlighted because it was incredible. Palou dipped into the 66-second bracket while a number of drivers were running in the low-68s because of their commitment to the two-stop strategy. Palou had to be on it for this race to work. He needed to be flying from the competition to make this victory easy. He could have come out in second or even third after his final stop and needed to erase a four or five-second gap in the final 20 laps, but why run that risk of getting into traffic? Palou made sure he kept everyone behind him. He did, until one unexpected slip up.
We are not going to see that mistake again. Even with those ten points he forfeited with his one error, Palou still increased his championship lead. He is 113 points ahead of Kyle Kirkwood with seven races remaining. All Palou lost today was possibly a shot at history and little bit of pride. He will be focused for the remainder of the season.
3. Christian Lundgaard had a stellar day to finish third. Lundgaard was almost the only driver who could hang with Palou until Palou started dipping into the 66-second bracket. Lundgaard was always positioned for a podium result, but this race was reminiscent of Barber Motorsports Park. Lundgaard was second-best to Palou, but a distant second, which turned into third because of Dixon's two-stopper. Lundgaard drove a solid race, and he needed this result, but there is a wide gap from him and Palou. There is no shame at that. No one is close. It will require something mighty to defeat Palou this season.
4. Colton Herta had a good strategy to start on the primary tire, and it allowed him to close in on the leaders at the end of the first stint. It got him a number of positions, but the problem is Herta didn't quite have the pace on the alternate tire. Palou was running in the 66-second bracket on the primary tire. Herta couldn't get much quicker than the 67.2s. Palou was gone. Herta ended up over 13 seconds back before his final pit stop. His three-stop strategy wasn't going to turn into a victory. Herta started hitting the 66s in the final stint, but that is when he had a massive tire advantage and had plenty of fuel to burn. It was still a good day, but again, there is a wide gap from Herta to Palou.
5. I think Patricio O'Ward ran out of fuel on the final lap because he ran a 72.0644 and he had been fourth ahead of Herta. O'Ward had just enough to finish fifth, but he had just enough from this turning into a disappointing result. O'Ward ran a little off strategy and an alternate three-stop strategy. He stopped on lap 11, stopped on lap 30, just prior to the Christian Rasmussen caution, and he stopped with 28 laps to go. It was effectively a pseudo-two-stopper. I don't know how O'Ward cut it that close when Dixon made it with ease after stopping one lap earlier. This is still a good result for O'Ward considering he started 14th.
6. Felix Rosenqvist committed to the two-stop strategy under the Rasmussen caution, and Rosenqvist got to the finish, but he was saving the entire race. That was time lost, and it is still a sixth-place finish, but he was 27.6686 seconds off Dixon the same strategy. Again, good result for Rosenqvist...
7. And it was a great day for Meyer Shank Racing as Marcus Armstrong made it a double top ten day finishing in seventh. Armstrong was on the three-stopper and ran long before his final stop, but it worked out as he had to do seven laps after his final stop. Armstrong opened a large gap to the rest of the field, which allowed the New Zealander to come out in seventh. That last stop wasn't that costly after all.
For a team that two years ago was scrambling to find a substitute driver at this race and could not put one car in the top ten to have both cars finish in the top ten of its home race is a massive boost for the MSR group.
8. Kyle Kirkwood struggled on the alternate tire to start the race. He lost a lot of time early and dropped out of the top ten after starting seventh. Kirkwood committed early to the three-stopper, stopping first on lap 13. It wasn't paying off massively. That Rasmussen caution actually helped Kirkwood. He made his second stop under that caution because it would allow his final stop to occur right when the final pit window opened.
For most of this race, I didn't think Kirkwood would crack the top ten, but the strategy fell in his favor and he was able to gain spots on each cycle. He lost ground to Palou and O'Ward today, but this day could have been much worse.
9. This is starting to feel like a Dale Coyne Racing of old because Rinus VeeKay turned 26th on the grid into ninth in the final results, and it largely went unnoticed. VeeKay stopped on lap 30, like Dixon, and VeeKay ran a straight two-stop race. We weren't seeing this last year, or even the last two seasons from Coyne, and it was once strong at strategy. The pace might not have been there, but the team could figure out a way to get a boost by doing something different. If it wasn't for the Rasmussen caution, I don't know how many teams would have run the pseudo-two-stop strategy and stopped so the final pit stop was right inside the final window. Committing early benefitted VeeKay, and it is another top ten day!
10. This could have been a podium for Kyffin Simpson. It probably should have been a top five finish, but on his final pit stop, Simpson stalled, and on his way out, he clipped VeeKay's right rear tire changer. Thankfully, Simpson only caught Nico Don's toes, and Don was rather unscathed. Simpson was not. He lost time for the stall and had to make a drive-through penalty. Thankfully, Simpson had opened enough of a gap to the rest of the field that he was able to re-join the race in 13th after serving his penalty, and as the final pit stops happened, Simpson got back in the top ten.
This was Simpson's best day in IndyCar, even with the stall and the penalty. He was genuinely one of the five best cars today. It is shame it is only a tenth-place result.
11. Where do we go from here? Nolan Siegel was 11th and ran rather well, but like Armstrong, Siegel had to make his final pit stop late. Siegel stopped with ten laps remaining, and it cost him a top ten.
Marcus Ericsson did nothing and finished 12th, which doesn't sound good, but considering where Ericsson has been, a 12th-place day is at least promising. It must get better though. This is a start.
Callum Ilott was teasing a top ten finish today, but his final stop came with nine laps to go. It is good though. This is Ilott's best finish of the season. He has been improving really since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He would have been 12th at the "500" if it wasn't for the wing endplate penalty knocking him to 33rd. Prema should be feeling good. The team is making progress.
This feels like another day where Louis Foster got caught on strategy. The team committed to three stops, stopping on lap 22. The Rasmussen caution came out and Foster came in on lap 32. At that point, he is on the same pace as the two-stoppers, but he gave up track position, and what could have been a top ten day became a fight outside the top ten. Foster was ahead of Siegel, Ericsson and Ilott prior to that. He was ahead of Kirkwood and Armstrong as well. That was the difference between a top ten and 14th.
It wasn't a good day for Alexander Rossi. He was 15th. He was on a three-stopper, but it didn't look like anything fell his way today.
12. The top five finish streak is over for Santino Ferrucci and A.J. Foyt Racing, but at least he got noticed. Ferrucci ran Conor Daly off the road exiting turn five, which earned Ferrucci a penalty that required him to drop three positions. This was reminiscent of last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where Ferrucci got distracted driving Romain Grosjean off the track rather than trying to drive a productive race, and it ended up damaging Ferrucci's car and led to a retirement. This contact didn't end Ferrucci's race, but it was clear he wasn't interested in racing his way to the front today. Let's also not forget his moment in practice nearly blitzing into Newgarden.
David Malukas was 17th and the Foyt cars were around each other all race. The team is likely feeling good ahead of Iowa. It likely believes it can win a race. If we are being honest, today was a better representation of this team's level than the last four races where it was finishing in the top five.
13. Juncos Hollinger Racing was 18th with Sting Ray Robb and 19th with Conor Daly. Daly had some damage after the Ferrucci contact, but he wasn't going to run much better than 19th anyway. This is where JHR lives, but JHR likely feels confident for Iowa. Daly was fastest in the test there a few weeks ago. Today isn't going to hurt their confidence for next week.
14. Devlin DeFrancesco was 20th. That is all.
15. Robert Shwartzman was anonymous today in 21st, as was Jacob Abel in 22nd. They are rookies, but they need to have better days than this. I know Shwartzman has had good days, as we have seen with his Indianapolis 500 pole position and a tenth at Gateway. He also ran well at Long Beach, but we need to see Shwartzman have a road course race where he is pushing the top ten. He needs a race like the ones we have seen from Ilott the last two races.
As for Abel, I think this is the ceiling. VeeKay has been fantastic, but I don't know how much else Abel can get out of this car.
16. I didn't think it could get worse for Team Penske than Gateway. It did.
Josef Newgarden... out on lap one spinning on his own.
Will Power... engine expired after 11 laps.
Scott McLaughlin... never a factor and for some reason this was a five-stop race that saw him finish a lap down in 23rd. Even Jacob Abel finished on the lead lap today!
Will Power is the top Penske driver in the championship and he is ninth! The other two race outside the top ten.
This team's psyche is off. Newgarden is making unforced errors. Power looked unhinged this weekend. McLaughlin has the best demeanor of the three, but this is completely foreign to him, need we be reminded that five years ago McLaughlin had never run full-time in an open-wheel car. He shouldn't be the leader. That is where Power and Newgarden should step in another neither appear mentally capable of doing so at the moment. It doesn't help that the mental support from the pit stand is gone.
When the best team in IndyCar is a shell of its former self, how can you know what to do to get out of it? I don't know if there is anyone at the organization that can figure out a way to work through this funk. Who is stepping up? It clearly isn't any of the drivers.
We should be going into Iowa expecting Newgarden to be the man to beat and both his teammates being his biggest challengers. I don't know if we should feel that way. This is the worst this team has looked in 26 years. I don't know how much better it can get.
17. Graham Rahal was collateral damage when Newgarden spun. That was a real shame because Mid-Ohio is Rahal's home race, and he was starting 20th, but with the 90-lap distance and the pit stop dynamic, it could have turned into a promising result.
18. Christian Rasmussen had a pit stop issue. The team didn't get any fuel into the car on his first pit stop. Rasmussen ran out on the track and drew the second caution. Ed Carpenter Racing was told the car would not be towed back. I am fine that. I think if you run out on track or cannot drive back to the pit lane, your race should be over. Especially running out of fuel. If you ran out on track, too bad. Get your pit stops right!
19. What a difference ten laps will make! Mid-Ohio should have returned to 90 laps in 2021. This is a much better race when it is two-stop vs. three-stop. Even if it isn't two vs. three, the extra distance opens the pit windows so a three-stop strategy can begin early or late in the race. IndyCar increasing the distance in six races should not go unnoticed.
Prior to this weekend, we had only see one length-increased race, and that was Long Beach. Iowa has its own issues, but each race will be 25 laps longer than last year. Toronto being 90 laps should open that race up.
I think the alternate tire was a little too good today. It lost time but it was a little too balance to the primary in the final third of a stint. We needed to see a little more fall off. It was a good balance, but it could have been a little better and mixed up this race a little more.
20. IndyCar's busy July is only get busier. Cars will be back in action in five days for practice from Iowa and the only doubleheader weekend of the season. There is much skepticism for the Iowa race. We will cover that as we get closer. Let's see if this trip will be worth it.
