It made sense. Dixon had all the pieces lined up in his favor. The one thing that was lined up against was his teammate.
Álex Palou was only two spots behind Dixon and within sight. Dixon may have made the mistake of going one lap too long. He was behind the back-marker of Jacob Abel. Palou came in and one lap created enough open track for Palou to zoom through to the lead when Dixon emerged from the pit lane. With clear track ahead, Palou left the field in the dust.
Perhaps the old man doesn't have it anymore, or perhaps it was just a bad radio. It was a good run and Dixon is still better than most competing today, but Palou is the best. He didn't learn it. Palou had the same gift Dixon has possessed and displayed in IndyCar for the last two decades. Perhaps Palou has refined the ability over the last few seasons, but he has had this since he joined the Chip Ganassi Racing organization. We saw it on day one with a victory at Barber Motorsports Park.
Day one of the 2025 season could not a worse result for the rest of the IndyCar grid. The champion remains on top. Everyone chased him for most of last year and the year before that. Now, everyone is chasing Palou from day one this season. We didn't see anyone catch him the previous two years. This could be a long year ahead.
When Palou has this in his arsenal, the ability to flip tire strategy into his favor without doing much beyond pacing himself, it feels near impossible to defeat him. Palou will be able to do this another two or three times this season if needed. When you cannot match it, the only option is to be outright faster, and Palou isn't going to let that be the case for most of the season.
The question we must ask ourselves when a race begins to turn into a strategy quagmire, "How can Álex Palou win this?" It is no longer Scott Dixon the first driver that should come to mind.
2. It wasn't Scott Dixon's day. Radio issues cost him and likely caused him to stay out longer than his wished. Despite all the problems, he was still good enough to finish second. We will never know if Dixon would have been able to hold off Palou if the radio had worked. With how Palou drove, I think it might have still played out this way with the Catalan driver on top.
It could be the case that the only driver better than Dixon is his teammate Palou, which is good for Ganassi, as it can begin a season with a 1-2 finish. Dixon did everything right. He hasn't truly lost it, but right when it looked like it was his day, going one lap long cost him. We are not used to Dixon losing races because he was the one to run one too many laps behind a back-marker.
Dixon was great. It is tough when he is not the best even within his own team. There should not be any major concern. There will be one or two races this year where Palou isn't this good and Dixon will be the one to come out on top. It felt like the season opener was meant to be his.
3. Sting Ray Robb will be credited with the assist because this race was not as close as it should have been. Josef Newgarden benefitted from the traffic slowing Palou for much of the final stint, but once cleared, Newgarden did not have enough to pounce on the opportunity created. It actually poised a problem as Newgarden ran out of fuel coming to the checkered flag, and that is what led Dixon to take second on the final lap.
Losing a spot on the final lap aside, this is the start Newgarden needed. Last year, Newgarden was all over the place. He won but then he could not avoid bad days. He made mistakes and he cost himself. He needed to start this season with a good performance. He did that and he was on the same strategy as Palou and Dixon. He kept up with those two and likely should have been between them if he had just a little more fuel.
4. This race was determined before a green flag lap was completed.
With the alternate tire having a significantly short tire life, some teams decided to start on it and hope to get it off the car as quickly as possible. When Will Power spun Nolan Siegel in turn three on the opening lap, collecting Louis Foster in the process, everyone on the alternate tire stopped immediately under that caution after running two laps.
Palou, Dixon and Newgarden all started on the alternate tire. They finished 1-2-3. Scott McLaughlin started on the primary tire and he finished fourth. McLaughlin's only hope was to run away in that opening stint, and it appeared to be working. With the tire life of the alternate, McLaughlin was handcuffed. He did 13 laps on the alternate tire, but it cost him track position, and it was not a case of where he could make up ground on the primary tire.
The only thing that saved McLaughlin's day was the opening stint. If the opening lap incident doesn't happen, this race plays out better for McLaughlin. I cannot say for certain he wins it, but it would not have been as constricting. The top three basically never had to run the alternate tire. They did three corners in anger and then paced around for a lap-and-a-half. That is a big difference than having to run 13 laps and making a green flag pit stop to get off the alternate tire.
5. How do we know this? Because Kyle Kirkwood and Marcus Ericsson ended up fifth and sixth, and they both started on the alternate tire. The top six finishers started eighth, sixth, tenth, first, ninth and seventh. Once clear of the alternate tire, without ever really using the tires during the race, these five drivers were sitting pretty. Kirkwood didn't do anything brilliant today. He kept his nose clean and got a top five finish. He made no mistakes. He did nothing special, but sometimes that is how you get a great result.
6. The same can be said for Marcus Ericsson. I don't think Ericsson was mentioned once during the broadcast. He didn't make a mistake. He didn't overdrive the car. Once clear of the alternate tire, he gave up some track position, but Ericsson knew the result would come on lap 100, not on lap three. Others had to face a difficult stint. Ericsson didn't and it led to a good result.
7. Another year and another example of Felix Rosenqvist dropping down the order after starting at the front. Rosenqvist didn't do anything poorly. He was holding his own against McLaughlin in that opening stint, but he got a double-whammy after his first pit stop.
First, he was on the alternate tire and the battle was just beginning, but he also came out in traffic and this allowed McLaughlin to be safe once he stopped on the following lap. That cost Rosenqvist additional time and positions.
It worked out with a seventh-place finish in the end. It isn't what you want from a third-place grid spot. It is a theme of Rosenqvist's career. Qualify at the front, finish worse than that. If that opening lap accident doesn't happen, this race is set up to go in a different direction. There was nothing Rosenqvist could have done once the equation happened.
Six cars starting in the top ten started on the primary tire, and four cars starting in the top ten started on the alternate tire. Five of alternate starters finished better than where they started. The four primary starters all finished worse than where they started. Rosenqvist was just one of four dealt a bad hand.
8. Christian Lundgaard did not put on the alternate tire for the middle stint, but it did force Lundgaard into a three-stop race. There was no way the alternate tire would be effective for an entire stint. He put the tires on with 31 laps to go, and we knew the extra stop was coming. The smart decision was to take that extra stop when everyone else was stopping. Lundgaard did four laps on the alternate tire and stopped when the rest of the leaders were making their final stops. Lundgaard already lost the time, but it was better than trying to run 12 laps and likely losing more spots as everyone else was running laps.
Lundgaard drove well, and he led Arrow McLaren on a weekend when I don't think anyone expected that to be necessary. It still was not a great weekend for the team, but Lundgaard was a big plus this weekend.
9. After not finishing better than 13th in 2024, Dale Coyne Racing opens the season with a ninth-place finish with Rinus VeeKay behind the wheel, and VeeKay started 12th. He showed pace all weekend. VeeKay started on the alternate tire, a good choice today. Even after that, he spent a great amount of this race in the top ten.
The last driver hired showed it wasn't his ability that kept him on the sideline for that long. This should feel good for him and the team. It is going to be a long year, and there will be rough spots, but VeeKay has shown life post-Ed Carpenter Racing can be positive.
10. Speaking of Ed Carpenter Racing, Rinus VeeKay beat the driver who replaced him, though Alexander Rossi deserves credit for turning nothing into something. Rossi started on the primary tire and went from 20th to fifth once everyone on the alternate tire stopped on lap two. Rossi ran the same strategy as Lundgaard, ironically the driver that replaced Rossi at Arrow McLaren, and Rossi went a little longer on the alternate tire, seven laps, but he too stopped when the rest of the leaders did to minimize the time lost.
For what Rossi lost on tire strategy, he gained from track position after the early pit stops. Rossi was moved to the front and stayed there. Tenth from 20th is a good day no matter how you got it.
11. Patricio O'Ward made the odd choice of starting on the primary tire, stopping on lap two to get the alternate tire out of the way and then running 20 laps and appearing to torpedo his entire race. Somehow it worked out and a four-stop strategy turned into an 11th-place finish.
O'Ward started 23rd, and he would have been in the top ten had he stayed out. I get doing something different, but I think McLaren believed it could make the alternate tire work longer than everyone expected. That didn't work out. The strange thing is, I think O'Ward ends up finishing 11th either way. I don't see how there was a better strategy. He pulled out an 11th when it appeared it was going to be a disaster.
12. Graham Rahal did benefit from the track position of starting on the primary tire. He went from 21st on the grid to inside the top ten by lap three, and he spent much of the race right on the edge of the top ten. Considering how this weekend began, 12th is a small victory for this team. Rahal was the slowest in a three-car team where he is clearly the most trusted driver. This could have been a deflating weekend out of the gate. It wasn't great, but there is something to draw from this one.
13. David Malukas won the intra-team battle at A.J. Foyt Racing in race #1, finishing 13th with Santino Ferrucci in 14th. Both drivers started on the primary tire. Malukas and Ferrucci started 17th and 19th respectively. It feels like the team should have split the strategy and one of those drivers should have started on the alternate. It felt like these two were set up to miss out on the top ten once the race restarted, and that is what happened. Not their worse days, but they were caught in a pickle and could not work out of it.
14. Here is an interesting thing. Of the six top ten starters that started on the alternate tire, only Colton Herta finished worse than his starting position, and that was because Herta's crew had a pit stop from hell where the right-rear tire could not be secured and the team could not get the car full of fuel despite the extra time spent waiting on the tire.
A grand total of 14 cars stared on the alternate tire, just over half the grid. Seven of those drivers started 14th or worse. Christian Rasmussen started on the alternate tire and went from 24th to 15th. I cannot say Rasmussen did anything more than not start on the primary tire as the reason he made up nine spots.
15. Chalk it up to the pit crew letting Colton Herta down again. It was bound to happen at some point. This is the mulligan gone. Maybe Herta can afford a second one, but Herta was ahead of Palou, Dixon, Newgarden, Kirkwood and so on before that pit stop with the alternate compound out of the way.
The tire issue is one thing. The fuel issue is inexcusable. With just the tire issue, Herta likely can recover and possibly break into the top ten. The combination of the two killed anything positive from the opening race, and that is something Herta cannot afford if he wants to be champion and be greater than he has ever been in this series.
16. Conor Daly was 17th. Yeah. Started 22nd, got off the alternate tire and still finished 17th. That is where Juncos Hollinger Racing runs. Sting Ray Robb looks like Sting Ray Robb. Third team, same look. A lap down in 21st.
17. While Chip Ganassi Racing went 1-2 with Palou and Dixon, Kyffin Simpson was 18th. At least the checks clear.
18. I don't think Prema was hoping that 19th and 20th would be the best they could get in its first race in IndyCar, but 19th and 20th isn't horrible.
Callum Ilott started 27th, dead last, and Ilott started on the primary tire, took the primary tire on the second stint, and then did 11 laps on the alternate tire. The only mistake might have not been able to run longer the second stint and done what Lundgaard and Rossi did, and only run five or six laps on the alternate.
Even if Ilott did that, it probably only saves him a spot or two. Not great, but the key thing is Ilott and Shwartzman each ran 100 laps. The team got the most data it possibly could from the first race. Onto the next one.
19. I don't know what happened to Devlin DeFrancesco, but he dropped from 14th to 22nd despite starting on the alternate tire and getting off of it immediately. For how this weekend was going, that was a rough end to it. The qualifying pace was a positive, but it would have been nice if the race pace followed for DeFrancesco.
20. Jacob Abel didn't have the same speed as his teammate VeeKay. Abel ended up a lap down. I am not sure there is much to draw from this race. This is a difficult spot to be in. I don't think this result is indicative of Abel's ability.
21. Marcus Armstrong had a good day ruined when he suffered left-rear suspension problems after running the opening stint in third. I don't know how the second stint would have played out for Armstrong on the alternate compound. It was shaping up to be a good day. If Rosenqvist ended up seventh, Armstrong could have finished in the top ten.
22. We made it three corners before the first accident of the season. Power tapped Siegel and it collected Foster. There was not much more to it than that. It didn't look good for Power. It wasn't the worst contact in the world, but if he doesn't touch Siegel, everyone makes it through the first lap clean and we might have seen caution-free race in St. Petersburg.
It is harsh to all of them because nobody wants to start any race, let alone the first race of the season, that way. Siegel had a promising starting spot wasted, and Foster didn't really make a debut. Thermal cannot come soon enough for these three.
23. This turned out to be a better race than expected partially because of the alternate tire. With St. Petersburg at 100 laps, it is a two-stop race for fuel. Firestone deserves credit for bringing a tire where it wasn't wise to try and make this a two-stop race. You do not need to stop three times, but with a tire that cannot go a stint length, it forces everyone's hand. Those who started on the alternate tire got fortunate.
The best St. Petersburg races were the ones that were 110 laps because the pit windows were wide. We know five races this season were extended from their 2024 race lengths. We can only hope St. Petersburg could get those ten laps back in the future because it would definitely be a three-stop race, and if combined with the alternate compound we saw today, it would cause many headaches for the teams and drivers.
24. This was a good start to the season. Good race. Open result. There is a little break until Thermal Club. At least we are easing into the season after such a lengthy break.
