Nerves are a plenty ahead of qualification weekend for the 109th Indianapolis 500. This week's practice proved to be more trying than in recent years as teams worked to find the balance of the cars with the added hybrid system, as well as searching for the most efficient way to deploy the system while on a four-lap run.
Uncertainty reigned when practice concluded yesterday evening. The security of a stable car that can complete four laps at wide-open throttle was not abundant through Gasoline Alley. A vast majority were unable to complete a mock run without feathering the throttle through a corner or two.
Thirty-four drivers will be faced with having to complete a run even if it is not the most comfortable conditions, and the questionable conditions go beyond the race car. Mother Nature will not make it easy with winds expected to pummel every car that takes the track on the first qualifying day.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
The track will open at 8:30 a.m. ET for a one-hour practice session on Saturday morning. It will be one final chance for teams to shakedown their cars before qualifying begins.
Saturday's qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and run through 5:50 p.m. ET. At the end of Saturday's session, the fastest 12 will be locked into the first four rows and will compete on Sunday over two rounds for pole position. Cars ranked 13th through 30th will be locked in their starting positions for the 109th Indianapolis 500. The slowest four qualifiers from Saturday will compete in the Last Chance Qualifying session on Sunday afternoon.
On Sunday, the first on-track action will be a one-hour practice at 1:00 p.m. for the Fast 12 participants. The Last Chance Qualifiers will get an hour practice following at 2:00 p.m.
The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:05 p.m. on Sunday. Each team will make one run with the top six advancing to the Fast Six round to determine pole position.
At 5:15 p.m., the Last Chance Qualifying session will begin. Each team will get one guaranteed qualifying run, but the team's will have until 6:15 p.m. ET to run as many qualifying attempts as they can to make the race. The fastest three times will the 11th row for the Indianapolis 500. The slowest qualifier will not make the race.
The Fast Six session will be held at 6:25 p.m. with the fastest from this round winning pole position.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Overnight rain has brought cooler temperatures and faster winds to Speedway, Indiana.
Temperatures will be around 61º F for the morning practice session but winds will already be blowing at around 16 mph from the West under sunny skies. Gusts could get up to 40 mph over the course of the day. Some clouds should come over the circuit as qualifying begins with the temperatures around 63º F. It will be a slow rise in temperatures, but the high of 67° F will be hit around 3:00 p.m. Clouds should remain over the rest of the session.
For Sunday, temperatures should increase as does the sunlight, but winds should drop. It will be around 67º F for the pre-qualifying practice session, but the winds will only be around 8 mph from the Southwest. When the Fast 12 session begins, temperatures will have increased to around 73º F but with winds remaining unchanged. The temperature should remain stable through the end of the qualifying session.
What is the Qualifying Order?
1. Marcus Ericsson
2. Patricio O'Ward
3. Kyffin Simpson
4. Robert Shwartzman
5. Alexander Rossi
6. Ryan Hunter-Reay
7. Jack Harvey
8. Christian Lundgaard
9. Marcus Armstrong
10. Graham Rahal
11. Nolan Siegel
12. Conor Daly
13. Felix Rosenqvist
14. Scott Dixon
15. Colton Herta
16. David Malukas
17. Santino Ferrucci
18. Will Power
19. Kyle Larson
20. Hélio Castroneves
21. Takuma Sato
22. Ed Carpenter
23. Marco Andretti
24. Jacob Abel
25. Álex Palou
26. Louis Foster
27. Scott McLaughlin
28. Sting Ray Robb
29. Christian Rasmussen
30. Kyle Kirkwood
31. Devlin DeFrancesco
32. Callum Ilott
33. Josef Newgarden
34. Rinus VeeKay
How different will this qualifying session be from previous years?
From what we observed in Friday practice, very.
The extra weight from the hybrid session has made the car more difficult to handle, and a substantial number of mock qualifying runs yesterday were aborted out of precaution over handling. Teams will not have that option in qualifying. Only so many runs can be waived off before a time must be put on the board.
It appears we will see drivers regularly pedaling the cars through the corners, especially at the end of qualifying runs as the tires wear. Times will probably be fractionally slower than what we saw last year, and it feels likely we will see a greater spread between the fastest and slowest qualifier. Last year, 2.8379 seconds covered Scott McLaughlin in first and Graham Rahal in 33rd, the fifth-closest field in the event's history. Last year's field had the second-fastest average speed at 231.943 mph, behind only 2023's average of 232.184 mph.
Last year's fastest lap in the Friday practice was Colton Herta was at 234.974 mph. McLaughlin ran the fastest lap yesterday at 233.954 mph.
What we did see during Friday practice was drivers running faster laps on third and even the fourth lap of a mock qualifying run as the hybrid energy was deployed. Teams deployed the energy in different ways and at different times during a qualifying run. Unlike previous years when we kind of have an idea where a qualifying run will shake out at the end of the third qualifying lap, we could see a number of cars get a boast at the end of a run and be a spot or two higher than thought.
Who is in play for the Fast 12?
It does not feel as obvious as some previous years.
Team Penske should be fine. McLaughlin set the fastest lap in Friday practice. Josef Newgarden was second, third and first over the first three days. Will Power topped Tuesday and was second on Wednesday.
When it comes to the no-tow report, Kyle Kirkwood was first, first, second and third over the four practice days. That is an average of 1.75. The next closet was Newgarden, who averaged a 7.25 no-tow position and who topped Thursday's no-tow report. McLaughlin was fourth-best at an average of 8.75 with Conor Daly as a surprise third on the no-tow average after running fourth, 14th, seventh and eighth over the four days.
Though he was 27th in the no-tow report on Tuesday, Colton Herta was fourth, fifth and fourth over the final three days. Power had an average no-tow position of 13th, tied for sixth-best with Kyffin Simpson.
Chip Ganassi Racing did not have a car ranked better than eighth in the no-tow report over the first three practice days only for Scott Dixon and Álex Palou to go 1-2 on Friday. Though they were not at the top of no-tow reports, Dixon and Palou were leading overall each day.
Dixon had the best average overall practice result. His average was third after ranking fourth, fourth, second and second over the four practice days. Palou had the next best average at 3.25. He ranked third, first, sixth and third.
Last year, nine of the Fast 12 participants ranked in the top 12 of average no-tow report position over the three practice days. Focusing just on Friday practice and the no-tow report, the top seven drivers in no-tow times from Friday made the Fast 12 and nine of the top 12 in the no-tow report from last year's Fast Friday practice session made the Fast 12. The other three were ranked 13th (Rinus Veekay), 15th (Kyle Larson) and 18th (Ryan Hunter-Reay).
The top 12 in the no-tow report in this year's Friday practice session were Dixon, Palou, Kirkwood, Herta, McLaughlin, Power, Christian Lundgaard, Daly, Marcus Armstrong, Sting Ray Robb, Felix Rosenqvist and Takuma Sato.
What will it take to clinch the top 30?
It required a four-lap average at 231.100 mph to make the top 30 last year. In 2023, it required a four-lap average of 231.070 mph to make the top 30.
With how Friday practice played out, I don't know if that many drivers can put up four-lap runs over 231 mph. If anything, we will see the four-lap averages to make the top 30 drop by a good margin. Drivers were struggling to complete one lap at 230 mph, let alone complete a four-lap run at that speed.
It is kind of an open door as to what the floor will be to avoid the Last Chance Qualifying session. If a number of drivers are struggling to hold the throttle flat over an entire run, it will be a slower speed than recent years. It could be a four-lap average in the 228-mph range if multiple drivers are struggling with handling.
We could see a number of drivers call it a day if his first attempt is solid and he was able to at least limit the number of times he lifted over a qualifying run.
Who is in the most danger of missing the 109th Indianapolis 500?
Like the top of the list, it is not as clear as previous years.
The two names we are most concerned about are Kyffin Simpson and Kyle Larson, the two drivers who suffered accidents in Friday practice.
Simpson spun in turn four and smacked the outside and inside walls, writing off his car and leaving him with his backup car, which was used during the April test. Larson spun in turn three and hit the wall square with the front before hitting the wall square with the rear in the middle of turn four.
There are fewer concerns with Larson because his car was lightly damaged in comparison with Simpson's car. Larson's damage was mostly to the front and rear wings and attenuator, quick repairs as the chassis remained undamaged. All were fixed and Larson was able to return to the track with 30 minutes remaining in Friday practice for a shakedown.
While Simpson had ranked in the top ten of the no-tow report over the first two days, he ranked 22nd, 27th and 21st overall over the first three days. We saw last year Marcus Ericsson went from a comfortable qualifier to someone who had to sweat out the last chance qualifying session after he had an accident in practice.
Going on the speeds alone, it is not as clear, nor did anyone look all that worried throughout practice week.
Based on the average no-tow report result, the bottom six drivers were Callum Ilott (23.5), Nolan Siegel (24), Ryan Hunter-Reay (24.25), Rinus VeeKay (24.25), Santino Ferrucci (24.333) and Jack Harvey (26.26). Larson was just ahead of this group at 22.25, but his 33rd from the Friday no-tow report does knock him down. His average over the first three days was 18.667.
When it comes the average overall results, the bottom six were Jacob Abel (25.25), Simpson (26), Graham Rahal (26.25), Robert Shwartzman (26.5), Ilott (28.5) and Ferrucci (29.5).
We entered this weekend concerned about Prema in its Indianapolis debut, and the results didn't look great at the start, nor did the lack of laps run on Tuesday, but the team has sounded quietly sure of themselves. Shwartzman's Friday boasted the team's confidence as he was 13th overall and 13th in the no-tow report. The Israeli driver ranked sixth and 14th in the no-tow report over Wednesday and Thursday.
Despite having three years of experience at Indianapolis, Ilott is in a sketchy position. Prema has some speed, but is it enough for both cars to be securely in the race?
Santino Ferrucci was the most vocally upset about his car this week, but the team seemed to turn a curve on Thursday, reverting back to some old setups.
The next most upset was Graham Rahal, though he appeared to also feel more comfortable by the end of Friday.
While Dale Coyne Racing has not been bad, it also hasn't been as strong as they would appear. Rinus VeeKay was 13th overall on Thursday, but he was 24th or worse overall in the other three days. Jacob Abel was not better than 20th overall during the four practice days, and Abel was 23rd and 26th in the no-tow report the final two days.
Who got a favorable qualifying draw?
Patricio O'Ward, and McLaren as a whole, has not shown threatening speed this month, so getting second on the track might be a good pull for him. The same is true for Christian Lundgaard rolling out in eighth.
Shwartzman is going out fourth. He could make his day with one strong run early and then he can breathe for the rest of the afternoon.
Alexander Rossi has looked good, but not great this weekend, and the no-tow speed was not shown on Thursday or Friday. Going out fifth could lift his efforts of being a Fast 12 surprise.
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has its two cars going out sixth and seventh with Ryan Hunter-Reay ahead of Jack Harvey. Hunter-Reay might not be able to repeat his Fast 12 performance of a year ago, but both cars are in a position to make the most of the conditions and put themselves solidly in the field.
Marcus Armstrong is a sleeper for the Fast 12, and going out ninth could put him high up the order early. Armstrong's average overall position from practice was 9.5 as he had three days ranked in the top ten. His was ninth on the no-tow report on Friday.
Graham Rahal should feel good being the tenth car out. If Rahal can put together a run that is faster than Kyffin Simpson and the two Dreyer & Reinbold cars going out before him, he should be pleased with how his qualifying effort will fall.
Who is handcuffed thanks to the qualifying draw?
Simpson drew third last year, and it helped him avoid the last row battle. This year, drawing third could be another blessing but if the team is not ready with his repaired car, it could mean Simpson will be unable to take his spot in line and he will have to wait until the other 33 cars go through the qualifying line. That is a difference of starting a qualifying run around 11:08 a.m. or around 1:15 p.m.
A handful of quick cars are going out late. Álex Palou is going out 25th, two cars before Scott McLaughlin. Kyle Kirkwood is 30th and Josef Newgarden is 33rd. It will be early in the afternoon, but the track temperature will continue to rise as these four are due to take to the circuit. All four may forgo their spot in line and wait to make their first qualifying run until conditions improve later in the afternoon.
When it comes to the last row battle, the draw was not kind to Louis Foster (26th), Devlin DeFrancesco (31st), Ilott (32nd) and Rinus VeeKay (34th).
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Dale Coyne Racing has had at least one participant in the Last Chance Qualifying session in each of the last two years. Each team has had a car fail to qualify in the last two years. Going out late is not what these teams would have hoped for. It doesn't help DCR that Jacob Abel is going out 24th either.
For RLLR, there is some hope that a good run early from Rahal could guide the team as its other cars wait to qualify.
What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Last year, 20 of the top 30 at the end of Saturday qualifying made it based on their first attempt speed. Of the Fast 12, six made it based on their first qualifying run. Four of those times were among the first ten drivers in the qualifying order.
Will Power set the fastest time after being ninth in line. Scott McLaughlin was second in line and second fastest on Saturday. Josef Newgarden was tenth on track and third at the end first day Kyle Kirkwood was the first qualifier and his time stood to be fifth-quickest on the day.
The other two drivers to make the Fast 12 based on their first qualifying attempt were Felix Rosenqvist (24th in line) and Santino Ferrucci (13th).
Alexander Rossi's first qualifying run would have been fastest to make the Fast 12, however, Rossi's first qualifying run did not come in its scheduled spot. Rossi was one of four drivers last year to pull out of line and forgo his scheduled first attempt. Coincidentally, Rossi drew 34th last year. It wasn't that significant of a delay until his actual first attempt. Rossi's first attempt put him fourth, and his second attempt remained fourth, but improved by 0.107 mph.
This was the second consecutive year that half of the Fast 12 made it based on their first qualifying run, but the big difference from 2023 to 2024 is where those drivers came in the qualifying order.
In 2023, only one of those six drivers drew in the first ten cars. Four of those qualifiers drew 21st or later in the qualifying line.
Four of the Fast 12 made it on their second attempt. Patricio O'Ward made it on his third, and Rinus VeeKay made it on his fourth attempt after he had an accident on his first run.
Of the ten drivers who made the top 30 last year based on an additional qualifying run, seven made it based on their second run, two made it based on their third, and VeeKay was the only one to lock up a spot based on his fourth attempt.
Seventy-four qualifying runs were attempted last year on Saturday, 19 of which were waved off, and one of which was disallowed. Callum Ilott's first attempt, a four-lap average of 231.995 mph, was taken off the board after his car failed inspection for an illegal left-rear wheel offset. That run would have been good enough for 18th on Saturday had it been allowed to stand.
